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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 0-7 | Push | 0 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
951 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Tailon & Arrieta James Tailon has been very fortunate with runners on base, as well as BABIP this season. He has been good but not nearly as good as his numbers would suggest. Jake Arrieta has been fortunate as well but our main reason to expect regression is in this strikeout rate. His numbers really dropped off last year and his fastball speed isn’t any better this season. This total is priced for two elite pitchers, and while both are above average neither is in that elite category. PLAY OVER |
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04-17-18 | Reds +141 v. Brewers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
957 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Romano & Guerra While the Reds enter play with the worst record in the league, this team is much better than the raw stats would indicate. Sal Romano is one of the Reds young starting group with a very nice upside. We have he and Guerra rated virtually equal in this matchup tonight. Road divisional dogs are a terrific subset in baseball handicapping and we just don’t trust Guerra here. He started the year in the minors as Milwaukee had lost faith in him. Now after one good outing he’s expected to regain past form. We’re not buying it as the Reds are the value team here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-16-18 | Marlins v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
924 Miami at NY Yankees Smith & Severino While Caleb Smith is ranked better than many think he has his hands full on the road today in New York. He’s 24% worse than Severino and the Miami bullpen is 26% worse. Offensively the Marlins are 22% worse and Miami can’t compare in power with the Yankees. We expect this to be a non-competitive game so we have no problems laying the 1 1/2 runs here with the host. PLAY NY YANKEES RUN LINE |
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04-14-18 | Giants v. Padres -107 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
912 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Richard Anytime we get a chance to play against Derek Holland at a decent price we are going to take it. He was once a productive major league starter but injuries and DL stints have him hanging on to a job by a thread. Because the top three San Francisco starters are all injured we may get a long look at him in the rotation, which is good for our bankrolls. The starting and relief edges for the Padres are strong, and the offense is better than it has shown thus far. This line should be significantly higher. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks +108 v. Cardinals | 3-1 | Win | 108 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
959 Arizona at St Louis Wrong team favored in our opinion as the starting pitcher edge for the Diamondbacks is a whopping 32%. Wainwright really struggled last year and just returned from an early DL stint. PLAY ARIZONA |
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03-29-18 | Yankees -148 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
919 NY Yankees at Toronto This Yankee team is going to be murder against lefties this year, and while we like JA Happ this will be a tough matchup for him. We have Severino rated 28% better than the veteran lefty. With this being opening day the Yankee bullpen is completely fresh, which is bad news for the opposition. This could very well be the strongest bullpen in the history of baseball. Toronto is a team many people liked going into the season, but there are too many injury prone veterans on this team. Therefore we have the Jays rated lower than most others, which is likely why we find value going against them today. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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09-15-17 | White Sox +103 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
919 Chicago White Sox at Detroit No need to go into much detail here as the Tigers have thrown in the towel. While the White Sox are playing its young players and the team comes to the park excited. The Tigers continue to trot out past their prime veterans to take away at bats from future big leaguers. Fulmer is a key to the White Sox future while Sanchez is barely holding on to a major league job. We may make it a habit going forward to fade these Tigers. For sure it’s the right move today. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-08-17 | Marlins v. Braves -102 | 7-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
958 Miami at Atlanta Braves have a 5% starting pitcher edge as well as a 3% bullpen advantage. Atlanta’s defense also grades out at 3% better. The offensive advantages are slight with the Marlins at 1% overall, 1% home/away and 1% lefty/righty. Miami has faded as of late and we expect that to continue. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-08-17 | Orioles v. Indians -147 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
970 Baltimore at Cleveland The Indians have all the pitching and defensive edges you can shake a stick at. At least that’s the phrase my father used when I was just a kid. 21% starting pitcher advantage, the bullpens are even and the Tribe has a 14% fielding edge. Offenses are just about even with Baltimore 1% better overall, Cleveland 1% better home/away and the Orioles 1% better lefty/righty. Can’t pass up the Red Hot Indians in this price range. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-06-17 | Texas Rangers - Game #2 v. Atlanta Braves - Game #2 +109 | 4-5 | Win | 109 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
979 Texas at Atlanta Game 2 Makeup double header after yesterdays game was postponed. We are concentrating on the 7:35PM eastern start game. We grade Atlanta with Tehran 9% better than the Rangers with starter Hamels. The Braves bullpen in 8% better and 10% better defensively. We rate Atlanta 10% better offensively overall, 14% better home/away and 4% stronger lefty/righty. Great price for the Braves in Game 2. PLAY ATLANTA GAME 2 |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
911 Arizona at LA Dodgers You rarely get a team on a long winning streak with its ace on the mound in this price range. But that’s exactly what we have here on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks are red hot and the Dodgers are just playing out the string, getting ready for the playoffs. Arizona has a whopping 35% advantage in the starters and a 12% defensive edge. LA is 5% better in the bullpen. Offensively the Dodgers own a 5% overall advantage and an 11% home/away edge. Arizona hold a slight 1% lefty/right edge. Can’t pass up this number with the visitor. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-04-17 | Twins +113 v. Rays | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
977 Minnesota at Tampa Bay Not going to fade the Twins in the underdog role, as this team is playing some of the best baseball in the league. Berrios was a prized recruit and he has been outstanding after going back down to the minors to iron out some problems. We rate him 14% better than Cobb who is having a nice season after tj surgery. The Rays have a 5% bullpen edge, while the Twins are a 9% better defensive team. While Tampa Bay owns the better hitting stats at 7% overall, 9% home/away and 5% lefty/righty, we will back to hotter team in the underdog role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-03-17 | Diamondbacks +106 v. Rockies | 5-1 | Win | 106 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
907 Arizona at Colorado Edges across the board for the D’Backs here. 10% starting pitcher advantage, 3% defensive edge and the bullpens are even. Arizona has a sizable 23% hitting advantage to go along with an 11% home/away edge, and a 15% lefty/righty advantage. The Diamondbacks should be a decent sized favorite. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-01-17 | Diamondbacks -102 v. Rockies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
909 Arizona at Colorado Huge series as these two fight for the chance to host a possible playoff contest. We rate Walker 22% better than Freeland, with Colorado holding a 1% bullpen advantage. The Backs also have a 10% defensive edge. Huge batting advantages for the visitor with 11% overall, 6% home/away and a whopping 18% lefty/righty. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels -140 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
928 Oakland at LA Angels Kendall Graveman has been pounded out of the gate this year which really puts his team in a hole. Parker Bridwell on the other hand still hasn’t allowed a first inning run. While our numbers show that the A’s have a 19% edge in starters, and an 11% defensive edge, the Angels own every other stat. A 6% relief advantage, an 8% overall offensive edge, a 14% home/away advantage and a 3% lefty/righty advantage. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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08-29-17 | Rays +103 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
975 Tampa Bay at Kansas City The Rays were good to us yesterday and after holding the Royal scoreless once again we see no reason to change our approach. Kansas City has now been shutout four straight games and the players are sure to feel the pressure. Our numbers favor Junis by 3% over Cobb, but the bullpen and defense favored the Rays by 14% and 3%. The hitting is rather equal with a 3% overall edge for Tampa Bay and an 8% lefty/righty advantage. The Royals do own a slight 1% home/away advantage. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-28-17 | Rays +103 v. Royals | 12-0 | Win | 103 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
915 Tampa Bay at Kansas City Want no part of the Royals here after not only being swept by the Indians, but being shutout in all three games. That was a key series for the Royals in its playoff pursuit, and you know they can’t be coming into this series confident. We rate Pruitt as 12% better than Kennedy, the bullpen is also 12% stronger, with the defense 16% more efficient. Offensively Tampa has a 3% overall edge, an 8% lefty/righty advantage, while the Royals own a 1% home/away edge. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-26-17 | Mets +195 v. Nationals | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
901 NY Mets at Washington This line is priced as though the Nationals were just dominating the competition as of late. But in reality since Brice Harper was injured this offense has not been nearly as effective. While the numbers show slight advantages to the host, the number on this game is really inflated. We grade the Nets with an 11% starting pitcher edge, a 4% bullpen advantage and a 2% defensive edge. Offensively we see 1% overall, 7% home/away with the Mets holding a 9% lefty/righty edge. Those numbers do not add up to an overwhelming favorite. Like yesterday with the Twins and Bartolo Colon we side with the high priced dog here. PLAY NY METS |
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08-25-17 | Twins +179 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 179 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
967 Minnesota at Toronto Gotta hand it to Bartolo Colon. Overtime he’s about to be thrown out to pasture, he shows his remaining ability. That said we rate Haps 25% better than Colon in starting pitching. The bullpen edge is 3% in favor of the Twins, while defense goes to the Jays by 5%. Toronto also has a 6% overall offensive edge, and an 11% home/away advantage. The lefty/righty edge is exactly even. While the numbers show Toronto to be the clear favorite the line is simply too high to trust the Jays. The Twins have exceeded expectations all season and we always get value betting on Colon. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-24-17 | Dodgers v. Pirates +137 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
906 LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh Exciting ending for the Pirates last night likely to bring added enthusiasm to the game today. The Dodgers have a 4% edge in starting pitching, a 6% bullpen advantage and a 12% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are equal overall, with the Pirates having a slight 1% home/away edge along with a 4% lefty/righty advantage. This line is 30 cents too high in our opinion and we will take our chances with the home dog. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-23-17 | Rockies +119 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
979 Colorado at Kansas City After blowing a great chance at the victory last night with the bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth, we will look for the Rockies to bounce back on Wednesday. We see advantages across the board which should make the visitor the favorite. WE rate Senzatela 21% better than Kennedy, the bullpen is 7% better and that was before the Royals closer went down with an injury yesterday. Colorado owns a 16% edge defensively as well. The hitting numbers are all virtually equal with an overall 2% Kansas City edge over our three categories. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-21-17 | Brewers v. Giants +115 | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
956 Milwaukee at San Francisco We’re not enamored with either starter here as we rate both below league average. Yet our numbers give Stratton an 11% edge over Davies. The bullpen edge is 13% for the Brewers while the Giants have a 13% defensive edge, as Milwaukee is 22% worse than league average defensively. The offensive numbers are almost exactly even with a 2% overall edge to the visitor, a 1% lefty/righty edge for the Brewers and a 1% Giants edge home and Away. San Francisco should be favored in this one. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-19-17 | Marlins v. Mets -106 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
954 Miami at NY Mets Much prefer the pitching and defense of the Mets here. We rate Montero 28% better than Worley, as he is finally starting to translate his minor league success to the majors. We are buying low on what was once the top pitching prospect in the Mets system. We show a 27% bullpen advantage and a 36% defensive edge. Miami has small advantages in hitting at 5% overall, 1% home/away and 6% lefty/righty. While the Marlins are playing quality ball the betting markets have given them too much credit. PLAY NY METS |
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08-18-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
930 Arizona at Minnesota Two pitchers having career years get together in the twin cities on Friday night as Zack Godley takes on Ervin Santana. We rate each pitcher 7 and 8% better than average. And while the analytics world waits for Santana to step back, we will ride his year of success. The bullpens combine to rank 2% better than league average and the defenses stand 9 and 11% better than average. While the hitting numbers show a combined 11% edge overall, 10% advantage home/away and a 14% combined lefty/righty edge. We expect the starters to go a long way here, especially with the Twins off a doubleheader yesterday. We make this line a full run lower than the current number. PLAY UNDER |
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08-15-17 | Royals -116 v. A's | 8-10 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
967 Kansas City at Oakland Solid 12% edge in the starting pitching of Hammel over Smith. The bullpen also provides a 3% royals edge. Defensively KC is 5% better. Offensively the A’s own a 6% overall advantage with edges of 9% home/away and 3% lefty/righty. Chris Smith hasn’t shown us much and despite the high ERA we are a fan of Jason Hammel. We back the Royals here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-13-17 | Royals v. White Sox +129 | 14-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
972 Kansas City at Chicago While Vargas was an All-Star this season and Holland has been considered a journeyman, our numbers only favor Vargas by 8%. The Royals also own the bullpen by 17% and the defense by 18%. But the Sox are the better hitting team by 7% overall, 10% home/away and 3% lefty/righty. The White Sox are an extremely young team right now but the organization is loaded with good young players. The kids don’t know they are supposed to lose and the team has played much better since getting rid of the big contracts. We ride the underdog here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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08-12-17 | Rockies -105 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
907 Colorado at Miami Nice pitching edge all around for the Rockies as Hoffman rates 29% better than Nicotine. The bullpen has a 10% advantage while defensively Colorado is 27% superior. The offensive edges go to the Marlins by 12%, 12% and 15% advantages. The Rockies are the clearly superior team based on year to date advanced stats. Can’t turn down this price. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-10-17 | Indians v. Rays +128 | 1-4 | Win | 128 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
912 Cleveland at Tampa Bay Danny Salazar is an elite starter when he is on, but when he is not he’s extremely hittable. Which makes backing him in a favorite role very dicey. Blake Snell was more highly touted but he has bounced from AAA to the majors in his short career. While the Indians have the better defense by 28% all the other numbers come out very even. The Tribe bullpen is better but Andrew Miller is on the shelf. We just can’t pass up the Rays in the home dog role here as Cleveland is overpriced. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-05-17 | Marlins +118 v. Braves | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
957 Miami at Atlanta We like both these starting pitchers overall, but we rate Straily with a 2% edge. The bullpens are exactly even while the Braves own a 7% fielding advantage. All the hitting numbers favor the visitor by margins of 9% overall, 8% home/away and 9% lefty/righty. As much as we have been impressed by how well the Braves have exceeded expectations this year. the Marlins are the right side today. PLAY MIAMI |
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08-04-17 | Cardinals v. Reds +107 | 2-3 | Win | 107 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
904 St Louis at Cincinnati Simply can’t trust these Cardinals right now in the role of a road favorite. The hitting has disappointed all year. Mike Leake is having a good season but he’s pitching over his head this season. Asher Wojciechowski could end up being the best starter the Reds have sent out to the mound this year. Although in reality it’s not a hard statement to make as Cincinnati has had terrible pitching all year. We rate the Cincy starter with a 7% edge and the defense being 2% better. The cards match that same 2% edge in the bullpen. The hitting numbers all favor the host at 3% overall, 6% home/away and 1% lefty/righty. Nice payoff here for the Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-03-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 10-8 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
954 Arizona at Chicago Strong starting pitcher matchup here as we grade Greinke 36% better than average, and Quintana at 16% better than an average MLB starter. The bullpens are also 2% and 23% better than league average. Defensively these are two of the best teams in baseball at 32% above for Arizona and 19% better for the Cubs. While the offensive numbers combine for 9% above overall, 7% above for home/away and 12% higher for lefty/righty, we feel it’s still a solid advance to look for a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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08-02-17 | Twins -102 v. Padres | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
925 Minnesota at San Diego Prefer Ervin Santana who has been able to outperform his advanced stats all season. We rate him 5% better than Perdomo. The Padres own bullpen 18% and defense 7%. Hitting wise it’s pretty much a wash with the Twins winning by 1% overall and 13% lefty/righty, while the Padres have a 7% home/away edge. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-01-17 | Phillies +121 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
977 Philadelphia at LA Angels Big pitching advantage for the Phillies here in as much as we like to find value on Nolasco, Nola rates 22% better. The Angels own the bullpen by 15% and the defense by 8%. While the Angels sweep the hitting numbers at 9% overall, 12% home/away and 4% lefty/righty. We would much rather trust the red hot Nola to shut this Angels team down. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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07-29-17 | Reds +130 v. Marlins | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
901 Cincinnati at Miami We’ve liked the poise Tim Adelman has brought in his young career with the Reds. We prefer him over Adam Conley by 2% in the starting pitcher matchup. The Reds have a 3% advantage in the bullpen and a 2% edge defensively. While the Marlins own all three offensive advantages the numbers are by just 5%, 9% and 2%. This game should be much closer lined to Miami -120. That gives us a nice overlay with the Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-26-17 | Brewers +116 v. Nationals | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
955 Milwaukee at Washington Taking a shot on the dog here in what should be much closer to a pick ‘em contest. We rate Nelson 23% better than Gonzalez who is due for some major regression in his numbers. The defensive edge for the Brewers is 10% while the Nationals have an 8% bullpen edge. Offensively it’s about even with the Brewers winning the lefty/righty category by 9% and Washington up overall by 1% and 7% home/away. Nelson is finally putting it all together this season and we back the dog here after an impressive showing yesterday. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-25-17 | Orioles v. Rays -114 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
918 Baltimore at Tampa Bay In a near pick ‘em game we will side with the much better starter. We rate Faria a conservative 19% better than Miley, who’s advanced stats show he’s due for major regression. Faria has been terrific since entering the rotation and we look for a big bounce back from the young righty here. The fielding is virtually even and the Orioles own the better bullpen by 8%. Baltimore owns the better hitting by margins of 8% overall, 4% home/away and 13% lefty/righty. But the huge starting mismatch trumps those numbers. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-23-17 | Padres +107 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 107 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
907 San Diego at San Francisco Dinelson Lamet is the best no-name pitcher in baseball. Forget about his high era and look at his advanced stats. He’s blowing away the opposition with a strikeout rate that is elite. He should have a huge day here in this pitchers park against the struggling Giants bats. The numbers will show that we have a whopping 31% starting pitcher edge for the Padres. The bullpens also favor the visitor by 13%, along with a 14% defensive edge. The Giants own the hitting advantages of 13% overall, 20% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. We are getting the better all-around team at plus money. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-22-17 | White Sox +163 v. Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
973 Chicago WS at Kansas City Just too much value not to take the White Sox here. Pelfrey has actually pitched better than he has gotten credit for this season, while Vargas is starting to see regression in his out of this world stats from the first half of the year. While the Royals own the pitching and defensive stats by 21%, 12% and 24% this line is simply way too high. The hitting numbers show a 2% overall edge to KC, a 6% home/away advantage for the host, but a 5% lefty/righty advantage for the Sox. No doubt the Royals should be favored here, but this line is crazy. Nice underdog payoff on the White Sox. PLAY CHICAGO WS |
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07-21-17 | Marlins +105 v. Reds | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
905 Miami at Cincinnati Simply can’t trust Homer Bailey in the favorite role as he has been inconsistent since returning to the majors. He has been hit early and often and we believe the wrong team is favored here. Jose Urena has surpassed our expectations and he has become a solid addition to this Miami pitching staff. The overall numbers say this is a pick ‘em game but from what we have seen the Marlins should be favored. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-20-17 | Tigers -110 v. Royals | 4-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
965 Detroit at Kansas City Prefer the much better hitting Tigers here taking on a lefty. Detroit has a 10% edge in starting pitching and a 2% fielding advantage. The Royals do have the better bullpen by 4% but the closer left yesterday’s game with an injury. The hitting is all Detroit with advantages of 13% overall, 7% home/away and a whopping 22% lefty/righty. Even with the recent trade of Martinez this Tigers lineup still hits lefties well. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-18-17 | Tigers -105 v. Royals | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
971 Detroit at Kansas City The pitching edges all favor the host with a 4% advantage with Wood over Boyd and a 4% bullpen advantage. The defense also favors the Royals by 9%. But offensively it’s Detroit in a landslide. 16% overall, 11% home/away and a whopping 28% lefty/righty. The Tigers rake lefties and Travis Wood is serviceable at best. Nice overlay for the visitor. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-15-17 | Rockies v. Mets -105 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
912 Colorado at NY Mets The Rockies are in a complete free fall. After jumping out to a terrific start with a group of young contact pitchers, the regression has started to take place. We have Lugo rated 2% better than Chatwood and the Mets bullpen 9% better than Colorado. The teams are equal in fielding. All the offensive numbers favor the Mets. 9% edge overall, 12% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. New York is playing inspired ball while the Rockies are holding on by a thread. PLAY NY METS |
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07-14-17 | Giants v. Padres -102 | 5-4 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
964 San Francisco at San Diego While the Giants own the 7% starting pitcher advantage in this one, we aren’t sold on Cueto. He’s already said he’s looking to leave the bay area and he just hasn’t had the same composure on the mound this season. Richard has far surpassed our expectations this year as he has been a very serviceable starter. The Padres have a huge advantage of 17% in the bullpen while the Giants own a 7% defensive edge. Offensively San Francisco is 5% better overall, 10% better lefty/righty but the Padres own a 1% home/away hitting edge. While the numbers are basically a wash the Padres come into the second half with a more forward looking outlook, as opposed to the Giants who have a veteran team with much higher expectations. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-08-17 | Tigers v. Indians -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
970 Detroit at Cleveland Strong pitching advantages across the board for the Tribe with a 5% edge on Clevenger over Verlander, a huge 22% bullpen advantage and a 17% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are a wash with just a 3% combined advantage for Cleveland. But the major reason we like the Tribe today is that Justin Verlander has major problems against Cleveland. For two years he has talked about the Indians stealing his signs, and yet he hasn’t been able to make the needed adjustments. This year in 14.1 innings he’s allowed 18 earned runs. It’s in his head and it has affected his pitching. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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07-07-17 | Brewers +170 v. Yankees | 9-4 | Win | 170 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
925 Milwaukee at NY Yankees While we fully admit that the Yankees own the pitching and defense in this matchup, the Brewers bats make them a dangerous underdog. Montgomery rates 19% better than Guerra, and the relievers are 14% better. Defensively a 24% advantage goes to New York. But when taking a look at batting the Brewers have edges of 8% overall, 3% home/away and 14% lefty/righty. Milwaukee hits left-handers at a 16% better clip than league average. With this line being extremely high, coupled with how well the National League has played as of late, gives us a solid take on the Brewers. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-05-17 | White Sox v. A's UNDER 9 | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
914 Chicago White Sox at Oakland While many look to take advantage of Mike Pelfrey, he’s actually pitched very well in spots this year. A journeyman who keeps getting signed because he keeps his club in games. Sonny Gray has much more talent and when healthy he’s a top of the rotation starter. We really like the Under in this contest as the hitting for both these teams leaves much to be desired. Our offensive numbers show Chicago 8% lower than league average overall, and Oakland coming in at 6% below average. Home/away has the Sox at 9% worse and Oakland 6% below average. In examining lefty/righty numbers both teams are below average against righties, Chicago 7% below and the A’s 6% below. PLAY UNDER |
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07-04-17 | Blue Jays -105 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
961 Toronto at NY Yankees First game back from the DL for Sabathia who is actually having a pretty good season by his recent standards. But we usually like to go against a starter off the DL and this is a nice spot for the lefty raking Blue Jays. We rate Haps 5% better than CC with the defense rating even. The big edge for New York is in the bullpen with a 14% advantage. Offense is all Blue Jays with edges of 14% overall, 6% home/away and a whopping 24% lefty/righty. We expect Toronto to score early and often here. PLAY TORONTO |
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07-02-17 | Mariners v. Angels +143 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
978 Seattle at LA Angels While we have Paxton rated 19% better than Chavez, we feel the line in this game is just too high. The Angels own the better relief pitching by 13%. Seattle does own the remaining categories but not by substantial margins. We agree Seattle should be favored but in our projections LA gets this one done. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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07-01-17 | Marlins v. Brewers -117 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
906 Miami at Milwaukee Tom Koehler returns to the rotation today knowing the opposition has scored on him 6 of his 8 starts this season. Playing from behind early is not the situation the Marlins want to be in. We rank Zach Davies 16% better than Koehler and the bullpen is 4% more successful. The Brewers have a whopping 15% defensive edge while the offense is pretty much a wash. Milwaukee is 2% better home/away while the Marlins hold a 1% advantage overall and a 7% edge lefty/righty. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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06-30-17 | Twins +113 v. Royals | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
975 Minnesota at Kansas City Our numbers show Vargas with a 10% advantage over Santana. And the advanced analytics say Ervin Santana is due for regression. But we have watched a great number of his starts this year and we believe his work is somewhat sustainable. He doesn’t allow many baserunners and when he does walk a player it’s because in most cases he wants to face the next batter instead. We’re buying into Santana while most saber metrics frown on him. KC has slight edges in the bullpen and defense of 4 and 6%. The hitting is all Twins at 9% overall, 14% home/away and 14% lefty/righty. In fact, Minnesota is 8% better than the MLB average against lefties. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-29-17 | Brewers +102 v. Reds | 11-3 | Win | 102 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
907 Milwaukee at Cincinnati Homer Bailey hasn’t had the ability to stay healthy. Which he looked good against minor leaguers he struggled once again in his first big league start. We rate his mound opponent Jimmy Nelson a conservative 9% better than Bailey. While Cincinnati has a slight 4% bullpen edge, the Brewers are the better defensive team by 7%. The hitting numbers have the Reds favored by 6, 9 and 2% which isn’t even a modest difference. We believe much more in Milwaukee than the fading Reds and feel the wrong team is favored here. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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06-28-17 | Dodgers -114 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
979 LA Dodgers at LA Angels A clean sweep of the board here for the road team topped off by a 21% starting pitching advantage for Ryu over Meyer. The bullpen has a 5% edfe and an 11% advantage defensively. Offensively its all Dodgers with a 12% advantage overall, an 8% edge home/away and a 14% edge lefty/righty. The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball the past month and this line simply does not reflect that fact. PLAY LA DODGERS |
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06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres -105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
910 Atlanta at San Diego Advantages across the board for the Padres here. A 21% edge in starters and 24% in relief. A 15% defensive edge is also present. Offensively San Diego rates 8% better overall, 10% better home and away and 11% better lefty/righty. Atlanta is 15% worse than league average hitting on the road. The Padres sweep the board here by a combined 89% according to our numbers. That’s a huge edge in this price range. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-23-17 | Rangers +108 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
915 Texas at NY Yankees Not sure the Yanks should be favored here based on the inconsistency of Tanaka. We rate Darvish 25% better which is a huge starting pitcher advantage. The Yankees biggest edge is in the bullpen with a 21% edge, but you have to have the lead to get to the best of the bullpen arms. Texas is the better defensive team by 9% and own the lefty/righty advantage by 3%. But the Yanks have an overall 3% offensive edge along with a home/away advantage of 9%. Overall we are getting the much better starter at plus money. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-21-17 | Pirates +117 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
909 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee The only edge the Brewers have in this game by our numbers is a 1% advantage in starting pitchers. Neither man has been overly impressive thus far but we believe both Williams and Guerra are better than the numbers suggest. All the other key capping categories all line up on the Pirates here. Bullpen 5%, defense 7%, overall offense 7%, home/away 3%, lefty/righty 11% advantage. With McCutchen showing signs of coming around the Pirates offense has started to take off. We like the Brewers team but the division fade has begun. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-20-17 | Blue Jays -122 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
969 Toronto at Texas We rate Liriano 5% better than a league average starter, while Martinez is 23% worse than league average. That 28% edge is a key component tonight. Along with a 19% relief advantage and a 25% defensive edge points us clearly to the road team here. The hitting numbers are really a wash with Toronto owning a 2% edge overall along with a 6% lefty/righty advantage. Texas does own a 2% home/away edge. Nice line to take advantage of on Tuesday. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-19-17 | Giants -129 v. Braves | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
903 San Francisco at Atlanta Major edges across the board for the Giants here while the line is short. Cueto rates 27% better than Dickey and the bullpen is 7% stronger. Defensively SF is 21% better. Hitting is all Giants with an 8% overall edge with 4% and 11% advantages in home/away and lefty/righty numbers. San Francisco has had terrible BABIP luck the last five games as opponents are posting an outrageous .455 BABIP number. Keep in mind league average is roughly .298. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals +102 v. Orioles | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
929 St Louis at Baltimore The Orioles continue to find ways to lose and today we get a chance to fade them at an excellent price. We grade Wainwright as 9% better than Miley who is due for some major regression when looking at the advanced stats. The bullpen is 21% better for the Cards and the defense 12% stronger. The offensive numbers are a wash as Baltimore has 1, 2 and 0% advantages across the board. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-16-17 | Royals v. Angels -111 | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
978 Kansas City at LA Angels Our grades have Chavez 16% better than Kennedy with the bullpen being 15% better for the host. Defensively the Angels stand out with a 20% advantage. The hitting marks are very similar with the Angels having a 9% edge in home and away hitting as KC is 9% below league average on the road. LA has fared much better than we anticipated after Trout went down, look for another victory here. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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06-16-17 | Marlins +105 v. Braves | 5-0 | Win | 105 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
959 Miami at Atlanta Like the pitching matchup of Straily over Newcomb as the Braves starter pitched a bit over his head in his MLB debut. We rate Straily 21% better as he is finally becoming an all around pitcher instead of a thrower which is what he came up as. Miami has a slight 3% relief pitching edge and a 5% defensive advantage. The Marlins are showing hitting edges of 5% overall, 1% home/away and 11% lefty/righty. The Braves are 7% below league average vs right handed starters. PLAY MIAMI |
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06-15-17 | Brewers v. Cardinals -138 | 6-4 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
904 Milwaukee at St Louis Like both these starters but we rate Wacha 10% better than Davies. The Cards have the better bullpen by 14% and the better defense by 10%. The hitting also favors the host with a 12% overall edge, a 14% home/away advantage and a 12% lefty/righty edge. We are catching Milwaukee as the hitting is regressing and young players are getting a call up. Nice time to back the Cardinals. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-14-17 | Cubs -128 v. Mets | 4-9 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
957 Chicago Cubs at New York Mets We haven’t found any value this year backing the champs, but in this matchup the line is too short to pass up. Don’t read anything into the last Matt Harvey start as we watched it intently and he was very fortunate. That gives us a nice line here for taking advantage of a starter who is clearly not the same pitcher as he once was. The Cubs own the better offense with an 8% edge overall, a 6% home/away edge and a 4% lefty/righty advantage. While the Cubs have underperformed this year the talent surpasses that of the Mets. Good game to change the Cubs fortunes. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-13-17 | Rockies v. Pirates -118 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
904 Colorado at Pittsburgh As much as we like this Rockies team it is playing way over its head when on the road. There is definite regression on the way. Pittsburgh has an 8% edge in the starters although both hurlers rate better than league average. Pittsburgh also owns a slight 2% edge in the bullpen which should get even better with the recent changes in the back end for the Pirates. The defenses rate almost identical. Offensively Pittsburgh has 15, 20 and 8% advantages in overall, home/away and lefty/righty hitting in this contest. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-12-17 | Mariners +115 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
961 Seattle at Minnesota While we are not very high on either starting pitcher our numbers have Gallardo 17% better than the young Mejia. The Seattle bullpen grads out 11% better while the defenses show a 12% Mariners edge. The offensive numbers come out to be a wash but Seattle hits lefties 11% better than league average. Wrong team favored here. PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-10-17 | Twins v. Giants -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
980 Minnesota at San Francisco As much as we like young Twins starter Berrios, the value is all on the side of the Giants here. A major starting pitcher edge along with an 11% relief advantage. A 33% defensive edge is key, along with 7, 8 and 3% offensive advantages across our three categories. Berrios has a bright future but he’s being overpriced in this contest with the veteran Samardzija. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-09-17 | Royals v. Padres -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
928 Kansas City at San Diego While the Padres are clearly a lesser team this season, the Royals aren’t much better, especially offensively. We prefer the veteran Chacin over the rookie Skoglund by a 17% advantage. The Padres bullpen also shows a slight 3% edge, while defense shows a 13% edge for the host. When it comes to hitting San Diego has a 10% edge overall as Kansas City is 15% worse than league average. San Diego has a 12% advantage in home/away numbers and also a 12% edge in righty/lefty stats. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-07-17 | Blue Jays -108 v. A's | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
913 Toronto at Oakland Cheap price for a club that has advantages in every area. Slight 5% advantage in starting pitchers. A 17% edge in the bullpen, 16% defensive advantage. Offensively Toronto wins out with 9, 6 and 8% edges in overall, home/away and lefty/righty numbers. Both pitchers are due for some solid regression based on xfip numbers. But we trust the Blue Jays offense to pull this one out. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-05-17 | Giants -112 v. Brewers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
905 San Francisco at Milwaukee 31% starting pitching edge for the Giants. Jeff Samardzia has positive xfip indicators while Junior Guerra has been very fortunately with his ERA. The Giants also own a 4% edge in the bullpen and a 27% defensive advantage. Offensive edges are 4% overall, even in our home/away stats and 11% vs right handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-03-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -136 | 7-0 | Loss | -136 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
916 NY Yankees at Toronto Joe Biagini has been very impressive since making the jump to the starters role. We make him 10% better than league average starters. Jordan Montgomery has talent but he’s still 10% below league standards. The Jays have a slight 4% edge in the bullpen and a 13% advantage in the field. Offensively we see the Jays with 8, 10 and 6% advantages across the board. Toronto rakes against lefties at 12% above league average. Overall we feel the Yankees have been playing above its numbers all season while Toronto is now getting healthy. Don’t rule out Toronto winning this division. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-02-17 | Indians -107 v. Royals | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
973 Cleveland at Kansas City Two similar pitchers take the mound today and we get to take advantage of some major regression. Tomlin had gotten off to a terrible start while Vargas was hot out of the gate. Now we get a very favorable line based on that perception. Tomlin has been much better as of late as he is rounding into form, while Vargas is starting to pitch more in line with his career numbers. Our stats show Cleveland with a 20% edge at starter and 18% advantage in the bullpen. Hitting is all Cleveland with edges of 8, 6 and 9% across the board. Defense is also better with the Tribe by 17%. It’s rare we see a team sweep the entire board and are priced in this range. Let’s go Tribe! PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-30-17 | Tigers -128 v. Royals | 0-1 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
921 Detroit at Kansas City Rare chance to get the Tigers and Verlander in this price range against a rookie starter. Detroit has a 27% edge in starting pitching and a 13% defensive edge. Offensively it’s all Tigers with a 14% overall along with 9% home/away and a whopping 21% lefty/righty advantage. The only edge the Royals have is in the bullpen where a 4% advantage goes to KC. Detroit has long raked against lefties and Verlander is 26-15 career vs Kansas City. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-29-17 | Rays +129 v. Rangers | 10-8 | Win | 129 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
969 Tampa Bay at Texas While Texas owns the better bullpen we prefer Ramirez over Perez. Martin Perez grades out as 12% below league average in our numbers. TB has a 3% defensive edge, while Texas has slim 5, 6 and 3% offensive advantages. Our numbers say the wrong team is favored here and we really like the way this Rays team is playing. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-28-17 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Brewers | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
905 Arizona at Milwaukee The D’Backs have an 11% edge with Corbin over Nelson. The bullpen has a 6% advantage with a solid 15% edge defensively. Offensively Milwaukee has slight edges but Braun has just been put back on the DL which makes the offenses virtually even. Both teams have been surprises this year but we buy more into the Diamondbacks, at least until Milwaukee brings up some of its talented youngsters. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-27-17 | Cardinals +103 v. Rockies | 3-0 | Win | 103 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
961 St Louis at Colorado Not sold on Kyle Freeland who is a pitch to contact hurler in a high run environment. He has been able to induce soft contact but we doubt that’s a sustainable attribute. We rate Wainwright at 27% better in the starting pitcher department. He’s 8-2 lifetime against the Rockies. The Cards defense is also 9% better in this contest. The hitting shows slight edges for the Cards, which puts us squarely on the road team here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-27-17 | Angels v. Marlins +118 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
980 LA Angels at Miami Journeyman Vance Worley takes the hill for the host here and we rate him 3% worse than JC Ramirez. The Angels also have slight advantages in the bullpen and defensively. But that’s where the comparisons end for the Angels. Miami is 13% better offensively, 18% when considering home and away play, and 11% better against right handed starters. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-26-17 | Rays -142 v. Twins | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
925 Tampa Bay at Minnesota Unheard of advantage in the starters as Archer grades out 18% above league average while Santiago comes in 34% worse than league average. A whopping 52% edge which could very well be the biggest of the season. While Minnesota does have hitting edges across the board it’s only by 7%, 9% and 3%. Not nearly enough to make up for the starting pitching. Despite a 25-25 record on the season the Rays have led in 228 innings and trailed in only 149 innings. Compare that to the World Champion Cubs who are at 180-178. Tampa Bay is a team under the radar that we can make good money on. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-26-17 | Mets v. Pirates +135 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
904 NY Mets at Pittsburgh Can’t trust the Mets right now especially in the favorite role. Pittsburgh is starting to wake up a bit and are a value play tonight as a home dog. While the pitching edges here belong to the visitor, the offense is all Pittsburgh. A 12% overall advantage for the Pirates, 17% home/away edge and 8% lefty/righty advantage for the host. Too much value on a home underdog to let this one pass us by. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks -104 v. Brewers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
959 Arizona at Milwaukee 23% starting pitching advantage for Robbie Ray here. The Diamondbacks also have slight edges in the bullpen, and fielding is a whopping 22% edge for the visitor. Offensively Milwaukee pulls ahead with a 12% lefty/righty advantage. There are two surprise teams out of the gate but we believe the Arizona success is more sustainable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-24-17 | Rockies -105 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
901 Colorado at Philadelphia The Rockies were good to us yesterday and the matchups favor them again on Wednesday. Our numbers have Chatwood 18% better than Hellickson who is pitching over his head this year. The bullpen shows a 10% edge for the visitor and a whopping 23% defensive edge for Colorado. Offensively the two teams are virtually equal like the handicap for yesterday. We especially like that the Phillies hit righties 10% lower than league average. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-23-17 | Rockies -131 v. Phillies | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
953 Colorado at Philadelphia Major starting pitcher edge here as Marquez rates 23% better than the very mediocre at best Zach Eflin. The bullpen numbers also show a nice 11 point advantage for the Rockies. Defensively Colorado dominates the Phils grading out at 10% above league average, while Philadelphia comes in 18% worse than a league average ball club. The offensive numbers come out virtually even, which gives us a major overlay on the visitor. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-20-17 | Phillies v. Pirates -117 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
906 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh Trying the Pirates again today after dropping our play on the Bucs yesterday. The starting pitchers are exactly even at 13% better than league average. Defensively Pittsburgh is 9% better than the Phils. The Pittsburgh bullpen rates as 10% stronger as well. The big advantage is offensively where the Pirates grade out 20% better overall and 24% better home vs away for the Phils. Add in the 15% better hitting vs right handed starters and we come right back with the Pirates on Saturday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-19-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -107 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
966 Toronto at Baltimore The pitching an defensive numbers slightly favor the Blue Jays here by 6, 3 and 6%. But the hitting is all Orioles. Baltimore is 21% stronger offensively overall, with a 24% home/away advantage as Toronto is 12% below league average when hitting on the road. The O’s also have a 17% edge hitting against righties. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-19-17 | Phillies v. Pirates -121 | 7-2 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
954 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh While the starting pitcher edge is slight with Philadelphia and Hellickson, the other key areas all belong to the host. The Pirate bullpen is 6% better than that of the Phillies, and the defensive edge is also 6% better. But it’s the hitting that makes the Pirates the play here. Offensively Pittsburgh has a 20% advantage overall, with a whopping 24% edge when breaking down the Phillies poor hitting on the road and the Pirates 12% better than league average hitting at home. Against righties the Bucs also hold a 15% advantage as Philly hits righties 10% worse than league average. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-16-17 | Braves +138 v. Blue Jays | 9-5 | Win | 138 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
921 Atlanta at Toronto The Braves pounded the Jays pitching last night, which shortens the Blue Jays relief corps tonight. In researching the numbers we can’t help but find value on the road dog here. When looking across the board every edge in minimal between these two, with a 3% edge in starting pitching being the biggest discrepancy in the contest. With both teams grading out virtually equal, we will back the Braves at a nice plus number. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-15-17 | Rays v. Indians -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
958 Tampa Bay at Cleveland Carlos Carrasco has been on quite a roll and the price seems like a bargain with the Tribe on Monday. The bullpen edge is a whopping 32% between these teams and 18% defensively. Cleveland also hits 9% better than league average at home. Add it all up and we see the Rays struggling to put anything on the board against the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-14-17 | Dodgers -128 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
909 LA Dodgers at Colorado While Senzatela has gotten a great deal of acclaim for his fast start, he is pitching way over his head. We have Urias rated 20% better than the young Rockies righty. LA is 22% better defensively and owns a 9% offensive edge. Big advantage for the Dodgers here is that it hits righties 10% better than league average, while the Rockies are 3% below average against lefties. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-14-17 | A's v. Rangers -127 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
916 Oakland at Texas Not a big fan of Kendall Gravemen as he is rated 13% worse than a league average starter. Texas is the better defensive team by 13% as well. Offensively the Rangers have a 15% edge on the A’s overall and 18% based on location. Texas also hits right-handed starters 13% better than Oakland. Add it all up with an 8% edge at starting pitcher and we lay it with the host. PLAY TEXAS |
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05-13-17 | Orioles +105 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
971 Baltimore at Kansas City Second start for Tillman off the DL and he fared really well first time out. Facing the light hitting Royals should continue that success. Even without its closer the O’s have the superior relief corps. Offensively Baltimore has a 6% edge on the Royals and against right handed starters a whopping 10% advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-12-17 | A's v. Rangers -110 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
924 Oakland at Texas Our numbers have Jesse Hahn rated 30% worse than an average mob starter. While Cashner isn’t much better, the edge is slightly with the host. Texas is the better defensive team by 15% in this contest. When looking offensively Texas has a 15% advantage overall, 18% at home and 13% vs right handed starters. This line should be significantly higher than the markets show. PLAY TEXAS |
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05-11-17 | Red Sox v. Brewers +122 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
968 Boston at Milwaukee Like the matchup here for the hometown Brewers who hit lefties 5% better than league average. The Sox struggle on the road at 5% worse than league average offensively. The starters edge for Boston is minimal which doesn’t coincide with the price. Our numbers say this line should be even so we take advantage of the plus price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-08-17 | Rangers v. Padres -124 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
920 Texas at San Diego We’ve never thought much of Nick Martinez and if the Rangers weren’t battling injuries he wouldn’t be on the mound here. We have him rated 27% worse than league average. Texas is 10% below league average in road hitting, while the Padres a slightly above average at home. We won’t be backing San Diego very much this year in the favorites role, but this is an exception facing a weak starter for the Rangers. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -127 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
980 New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs We don’t normally see this type of value in a nationally televised contest. But the Yankees have been the talk of baseball this season. Young players across the roster have been outperforming expectations, which gives us quite an edge here. We much prefer Lester over Severino and the Cubs lefty has been virtually unbeatable at home. Despite the back end of the Yankee bullpen, the Cubs are loaded through out the relieving corps. Offensively Chicago is 20% better than the Yankees and vs lefty/righty matchups the Cubs have a 24% edge. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-06-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
904 Milwaukee at Pittsburgh Major pitching advantage for the Bucs here as Cole ranks 11% above average while Garza comes in 13% below league average. The Pirate offense has a 17% edge over the Brewers which increases to 19% when factoring in the location. The Pirates also hit righties at a 16% clip better than Milwaukee. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-05-17 | Red Sox v. Twins +128 | 3-4 | Win | 128 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
970 Boston at Minnesota Could be a letdown situation for the Sox here off that controversial series with the Orioles. Especially against what has been a weak Twins team the last few years. But this Minnesota squad is playing much better ball this season and actually has a dangerous offense at times. Our numbers say this game should be a coin flip with any edges being minor on either side. We will gladly take the plus money here on a Twins team that can take advantage of a preoccupied favorite. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-03-17 | Marlins +126 v. Rays | 10-6 | Win | 126 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
979 Miami at Tampa Bay While Tampa and Blake Snell have the starting pitcher edge, Snell hasn’t really lived up to his high expectations. Miami has the clearly better offense by 8% in this contest as well as an 8% edge against lefty starters. In fact, Miami is 11% better against southpaws than league average. Adam Conley doesn’t strike out enough batters in our eyes, but he doesn’t deserve to be this big of underdog to the Rays. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-02-17 | White Sox +107 v. Royals | 6-0 | Win | 107 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
921 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Wrong team favored here at Chicago has massive edges across the board. While the starting pitching matchup is virtually even, the Sox have clear advantages in the bullpen. The White Sox have been outstanding all year in relief and have a 25% edge on this mediocre Royal staff. The Sox also rank against lefties at 5% above league average while the Royals struggle against left-handed starters. Add it all up and we get plus money on the better all-around team tonight. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-30-17 | Orioles +106 v. Yankees | 7-4 | Win | 106 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
917 Baltimore at NY Yankees Wrong team favored here by our numbers. The main reason is how the Orioles rake against lefties, 10% above league average. That opens up this entire field for big power numbers, and the Orioles are a classic swing for the fences team. We look for Baltimore to have a big offensive day against an inexperienced Jordan Montgomery on the Yanks. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers -154 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
972 LA Angels at Texas We normally don’t like to release plays that are in this price range. But in this case the line is simply too short. Every edge in this game is with the Rangers. A 32% edge at starting pitcher, 14% edge in the bullpen, the defense has a whopping 23% advantage, 21% offensively and 15% when breaking it down home & away. Simply put we are getting a $2 favorite at a very cheap price. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-28-17 | Twins +117 v. Royals | 6-4 | Win | 117 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
927 Minnesota at Kansas City While the starter edge is clear for the host, Minnesota is the right side winner in this contest. Offensively the Twins are head and shoulders better than the feeble hitting Royals. There is a 6% advantage in home/away stats, as well as a whopping 12% advantage vs righties. Minnesota is 7% better than league average where KC is 5% below vs right handed starters. The Twins also own edges defensively and in the bullpen. Wrong team favored here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers -145 | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
924 Minnesota at Texas Huge advantage in the starting pitchers here as we have Hector Santiago rated 25% worse than an average major league starter. Hamels on the other hand is 13% better than league average. The bullpen also is a solid edge for the Rangers, as well as a significant edge defensively. While Minnesota hits lefties 7% better than league average it’s not enough to make up for the substantial edges across the board for Texas. PLAY TEXAS |
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