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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-13 | Texas San Antonio +24.5 v. Arizona | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
187 Texas San Antonio v Arizona
The Roadrunners have taken the next step up for the program by joining the FBS. While the jump is always a major adjustment this team seems to be ahead of the curve. Last year they fared well against FBS competition, although the opposition was on the lower end of the spectrum. That said you can't argue with an 8-4 record. After winning at New Mexico in the opener this team showed a never say die attitude last week hosting Oklahoma State. A late rally got the Roadrunner backers a victory and now they travel to face their first BCS opponent on the road. While going to the desert is always a tough assignment, this team held in check the Cowboys running attack last week, which is a good sign against this one dimensional Arizona offense. The Wildcats had their game gift wrapped Saturday as UNLV was simply awful. We attended that contest and the Rebels were a litany of errors. After facing Northern Arizona and UNLV this Wildcat defense hasn't yet been exposed, but that doesn't mean they have been impressive. It's tough laying this type of number with a weak defense. After allowing over 35 ppg the last two years we haven't seen enough to expect this years unit to be any better. Arizona has cashed just 1 of 5 as of late laying double digits. Off a very easy win last week over UNLV we may find the motivation tough for head man Rich Rodriguez. PLAY TEXAS SAN ANTONIO |
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09-14-13 | Alabama -8 v. Texas A&M | 49-42 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
151 Alabama v Texas A&M
The Tide has struggled lately defending mobile quarterbacks, so last years result wasn't a fluke. They allowed 23 first downs which was the most permitted in conference action in a decade. Last year was the first for A&M in the SEC so Alabama wasn't used to the Aggies style of play. That contest was also the first game for the Tide after the huge showdown with LSU, the team Alabama had beaten the the prior years national championship. So you can see why this team was susceptible to a less than sharp contest. Interesting, Alabama has gone undefeated in true road games in 4 of the last 5 years, but has lost at least one home game in 8 of the last 10 seasons. In the last two years in home games lined at -10 or less Texas A&M is on a 1-5 straight up run, losing outright to Florida, LSU, Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma State with the blowout victory coming against Baylor. The Aggies were favored in 5 of those 6 games. Kevin Sumlin has really done a fine job in his short time here in College Station but we are not sure it's enough to stay within the number here against a revenging Nick Saban with an extra week to prepare. Rice and Sam Houston State tend to not prepare you for the best team in the nation. PLAY ALABAMA |
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09-14-13 | Georgia Tech -8.5 v. Duke | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
141 Georgia Tech v Duke
An extra week to prepare for Paul Johnson who in our opinion is one of the most underrated coaches in college football. The Yellow Jackets have owned the Blue Devils winning nine straight while doing so by an average of 21 ppg. Johnson is 22-15-2 ATS when put in the favorite role since coming to Atlanta, as he is at his best as a bully. Georgia Tech is a very experienced team with a great amount of returning starts under their belts. The last time Johnson had such a veteran team the Yellow Jackets posted an 11-3 record in 2009. Duke just extended the contract of David Cutcliffe which was well deserved, but this team isn't as good as their 6-7 record from a year ago. The Blue Devils only out gained one opponent last year by more than 100 yards, Memphis, while being out gained by over 90 five times. While they do return 14 starters the three best skill position players have moved on. Losing starting QB Boone to injury last week doesn't help the cause. The last three seasons Duke has permitted 35.4, 31.2 and 36.0 points per game. That's not good news against a Georgia Tech offense that can simply wear you down. The last five meetings has seen Georgia Tech as a double digit favorite each time, Duke hasn't made up enough ground in our eyes for this line to be in this range. Look for another dominating performance from the Yellow Jackets. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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09-14-13 | UCLA Bruins +4.5 v. Nebraska | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 41 h 54 m | Show | |
139 UCLA v Nebraska
We simply love the job Jim Mora Jr is doing in Los Angeles with these up and coming Bruins. After a 9-5 season a year ago and a Holiday Bowl appearance, the UCLA football program now owns football in the city of angels. The Bruins were mere cubs on the road under Rick Neuheisel but they regained swagger away from home last year with a 4-2 spread mark. Off an impressive opener against Nevada and with an extra week to prepare we expect the Bruins to light up the scoreboard once again. Keep in mind UCLA beat Nebraska 36-30 at home last year in just the second game at the helm for Mora Jr. Nebraska permitted 27.6 ppg a year ago against some very weak offensive opponents. They didn't impress defensively the first two weeks against Wyoming and Southern Miss. Keep in mind that Nebraska permitted 63 points to Ohio State and 70 points to Wisconsin last year and they return just 4 defensive starters. The Cornhuskers will get their points and we lean to the over here as well, but we can't lay this number with a team that has shown no ability to stop the opposition. Nebraska has a strong straight up record at home but most of those victories came against weak competition. PLAY UCLA |
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09-07-13 | Florida v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 48 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
306 Florida v Miami Fl Under
The last 10 times the Gators faced a quality opponent 7 times the game ended with less points than the current total of this contest. The Florida offense returns 6 starters from a team that only scored 26.5 ppg a year ago. QB Driskel plays pretty well in this system but he's not known as a player who can beat you with his talent. The defense for the Gators is the reason for this play. Florida allowed 14.5 ppg a year ago and despite just 4 returning starters we look for another big season from this stop unit. Florida held down a very good offense vs Toledo last week which is hard to do regardless of who the Rockets play. Toledo had gone 36 straight games without being held to single digits and they managed just 6 against the Gators last week. Miami brings back a whopping 18 starters this year and many feel this will be the breakout year for Al Golden. While we do believe the defense will be much improved we still have serious concerns about this offense, especially when taking on quality stop units. We are not a believer in QB Stephen Morris who only managed to complete 58.2% of his passes last year. When stepping up against good defenses last season the Hurricanes were held to 13 against Kansas State, 3 vs Notre Dame and 14 against North Carolina, while they managed 20 vs Florida State. Despite the high number of returning starters on offense we don't see that trend changing. PLAY UNDER |
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09-07-13 | Florida -3 v. Miami (Florida) | 16-21 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
305 Florida v Miami Fl
We have been waiting for this line to drop down to 2 1/2 as there have been some indications but the markets have tended to buy back when a few of those numbers have shown. Therefore we can't wait any longer to release this early start game. The Gators getting key players back from injuries and suspensions for this contest which should be a big boost to the overall quality of play. Florida has been a good road team who beat Florida State and Texas A&M away from home last year, two excellent squads. The defense allowed 14.5 ppg last season and shut down a potent Toledo scoring unit in the opener holding them to just 6 total points, a major rarity for an offense as good as the Rockets. 18 returning starters for Miami makes them a popular team as the Hurricanes have high hopes this season. Duke Johnson ran for 186 years last week vs Florida Atlantic, but he's not likely going to repeat anything close to that success against the Gators. While the Hurricanes were 3-0 as a home dog last year under Al Golden, we feel Miami is a bit overrated coming into the season. Miami haven't played Florida since a 26-3 loss in 2008 and they are just 1-5 SU against Florida and Florida State the past 5 years. While this program is making strides they are still a good ways behind the big two in this state. PLAY FLORIDA |
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09-07-13 | Miami (OH) +17.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 5 m | Show |
307 Miami Ohio v Kentucky
The Redhawks were beaten in the opener at Marshall but that wasn't much of a surprise to us. We have Marshall as one of the most improved teams in the country, so a dominating home victory didn't come as a shocker. That line opened at 14 1/2 and rose all the way to 20 1/2 at close. But the money did not pour in on the Thundering Herd because of their opponent, it did so because of the massive improvement by Marshall. While Marshall won that game 52-14 on the scoreboard, keep in mind that contest was tied at 14 apiece at the half. Miami Ohio is a middle of the pack MAC team that has a good pedigree of winning. Miami lost star QB Dysert in the off-season but new starting QB Boucher has plenty of experience. The Redhawks were outclassed in the second half last week, but despite facing an SEC squad this week Kentucky is a step down in class. Kentucky is coming off a neutral site loss to up and coming in-state rival Western Kentucky. The Wildcats entered that game in revenge mode for a 32-31 overtime loss to the Hilltoppers last season. Kentucky has another in-state rivalry revenge game on deck against Louisville. So despite the loss this is a major sandwich game for the host. Add in the fact that Kentucky pounded a fellow MAC team Kent State last year and we can see the Wildcats overlooking Miami here. Jalen Whitlow started at quarterback last week but Maxwell Smith came in and sparked the team in the second half. Smith will get the start here for the Wildcats. Smith has the better arm but Whitlow has the better running game. Defensively Kentucky has permitted 27 points or more in 11 of their last 13 games. They are not a team that should be laying this type of number. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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08-31-13 | UAB +3.5 v. Troy | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
173 UAB v Troy
While the number on this game was better at the open not enough people were able to take advantage of it. Still at +3 1/2 the value remains with the Blazers. We actually have UAB as the slightly better team here and we are pretty confident they are the stronger of the two questionable defenses. This line in our opinion in name driven, as Troy has a much bigger name in the college football world than UAB. But it's the Blazers who are headed in the right direction while the Trojans have struggled mightily the past couple seasons. We are getting the better team with a brighter future catching over a field goal. That's a take for us. PLAY UAB |
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08-31-13 | Texas State +8.5 v. Southern Mississippi | 22-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
185 Texas State v Southern Miss
Texas State is a team on the rise under Dennis Franchione and they remain out of the public eye. Franchione is at his best taking off the map programs to relevance and we really think this squad will be a play on team for us most of the year. Southern Miss was a disaster last year after over a decade of success. Many feel this team will bounce back with the coaching change but we have serious doubts. A completely new offensive system with players that weren't recruited for the faster tempo. Southern Miss won't go winless this year but they are not in the position to be sizable favorites. We aren't calling for the outright upset but this game very likely will come down to the final possession. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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08-30-13 | Texas Tech v. SMU +6 | 41-23 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 55 m | Show | |
154 Texas Tech v SMU
When this line came out we were questioning why our line was closer to pick while the Red Raiders were installed as a 6 point favorite. Since that time we have found no logical reason that Texas Tech should be a sizable road favorite here. Sure the new head coach could very well be an upgrade for the Red Raiders, but Kingsbury has been a quarterback coach in the past. He has no experience running a defense, especially a stop unit with plenty of holes. Texas Tech has won 14 straight in this series which you have to take into consideration, but they likely will be starting an untested freshman behind center. SMU returns a veteran coach in Jones and a QB who posted outstanding numbers last season. The Mustangs have been strong in the role of home underdog and despite only returning 11 starters, TT only has 13 coming back. Texas Tech has owned this series and is a bigger named program at this point, but neither of those facts have anything to do with the current state of these teams. The Red Raiders may be on the way up, but we know SMU can play with this team. We expect this line to tumble so grab the available six points right now. PLAY SMU |
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01-07-13 | Alabama v. Notre Dame +9.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Alabama & Notre Dame at Miami
The Tide played an extremely easy SEC schedule as they didn't face Georgia, Florida or South Carolina. They played just twice against elite teams, beating LSU on a very late comeback and lost to Texas A&M. We love the defense but offensively they have faced a bevy of bad defensive teams and haven't impressed. Along with LSU this Notre Dame defense is the best Alabama has faced this season. The Irish held every opponent faced this year to 20 points or less in regulation. Notre Dame beat Stanford, and Oklahoma who are on par with anyone Alabama defeated this season. With a total of 40 getting double digits with an excellent defensive team is a must play. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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01-05-13 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
265 Pittsburgh vs Mississippi at Birmingham
The Panthers are a lot better team now than early in the season when Cryst was putting in his systems. His staying at Pitt after having other offers means a great deal to these kids who are on their third head coach in three years. In four bowl games in the last four years Pitt has permitted just 58 total points as they have by far the better defense in this contest. Keep in mind that this is a team that took Notre Dame to Triple Overtime on the road. Teams Ole Miss beat this year: Miss State, Arkansas, Auburn, Tulane, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Rebels beat just one team who made it to a bowl, Miss State who lost by 14 to Northwestern. The SEC has not been impressive thus far in bowl action with Vanderbilt playing the best game out of this renowned conference. The Rebels held just one team all season to less than 20 points as they are at a clear defensive disadvantage. PLAY PITT |
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01-03-13 | Kansas State v. Oregon -7.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
262 Kansas State & Oregon at Glendale
The Wildcats really struggled defensively against Baylor, an offense very similar to the team they will face tonight. Baylor put up 52 points on Kansas State in that game and once the Wildcats fell behind the offense wasn't equipped to come from behind. In fact, that has been a common theme for this team all season, get an early lead and dictate pace. We highly doubt the Wildcats will be able to do that against this fast and talented Oregon team. While Kansas State hasn't won a bowl game since 2002 this Oregon team has won three postseason contests in the last five years. Oregon had a habit this season of getting big leads early and calling off the dogs. Therefore while the stats are impressive, the outcomes weren't nearly as strong as if the Ducks had played starters the entire game. With nothing left to play for we expect Oregon to produce a full no holds barred game tonight. With talk of Chip Kelly heading to the NFL this could very well be a statement game for Oregon. Keep in mind this team scored 41 points or more in all but one game this season, Kansas State doesn't have the ability to contain this scoring unit. PLAY OREGON |
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01-01-13 | Wisconsin v. Stanford UNDER 47 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
256 Wisconsin vs Stanford at Pasadena
The Badgers really struggled offensively when stepping up in class. Scoring just 7 vs Oregon State, 16 vs Utah State, 10 in regulation against Michigan State, 14 in regulation against Ohio State and 21 in regulation vs Penn State. This Stanford defense is as good or superior to any of those stop units. Defensively the Badgers are extremely sound holding the likes of Oregon State to 10, Utah State to 14 and Ohio State to 14 in regulation. Stanford has held all but one opponent to 23 points or less this season. They won't be outmatched against this Wisconsin offense. The problem for the Cardinal has been an inconsistent scoring unit that feasted on weak opposition. The PAC 12 isn't known for quality stop units and yet Stanford struggled many times to move the football this season. We expect this to be a field position game with points being very hard to come by. PLAY UNDER |
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01-01-13 | Michigan v. South Carolina -4.5 | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
252 Michigan vs South Carolina in Tampa
The Wolverines played well when stepping down in class this year but they didn't cover a single spread when installed as an underdog. Against the Likes of Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State the Wolverines were outscored 103-50. The offense produced 12.5 points per game when installed as an underdog and they managed just 12 against Michigan State and 9 vs Nebraska. While Michigan has sound athletes offensively they haven't come together against anything but weak opposition. South Carolina held 10 of 12 opponents this year to 23 points or less. Most of those games were competing in the best football conference in the country. They held a potent Clemson offense last time out to just 17 points. Offensively the Gamecocks only struggled against the best stop units they faced in Vanderbilt, LSU and Florida. They are stepping down in class here against the Wolverines. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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01-01-13 | Northwestern v. Mississippi State OVER 53 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
249 Northwestern vs Mississippi State in Jacksonville
Both teams played in defensive first conferences yet the offenses for each of these squads is talented. Northwestern put up 21 points or better against every opponent they faced including quality defenses like Vanderbilt, Penn State and Michigan State. Mississippi State allowed 24 points to Troy, 31 to Tennessee and 37 or better to the three best teams they faced in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. The Bulldogs were stymied offensively against those three elite teams but when stepping down in class they excelled, putting up 27 or more on every other opponent. The last four times out when not facing the Big Three they managed 24 against Mississippi, 45 against Arkansas, 45 vs Middle Tennessee State and 41 against Tennessee. The weather won't be a factor and since both teams went bowling the past two years the players shouldn't come out sluggish. This total is based on games against elite defenses and these two squads don't possess that type of defensive talent. PLAY OVER |
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12-31-12 | Clemson v. LSU -6 | 25-24 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
246 Clemson vs LSU at Atlanta
The Tigers are 8-4 ATS in Bowl action the past 12 years, including 5-2 when favored. The only losses for the Tigers this season were by 8 at Florida and by 4 vs Alabama, two teams with much stronger defenses than Clemson. Top SEC defenses like LSU have enough team speed to slow down a mobile quarterback. Offensively the Tigers were productive when not facing an elite defense, they should find success against the Clemson stop unit. Clemson played one of the easiest schedules in college football. The only good teams they played were Florida State and South Carolina, two losses by 12 and 10 points. The ACC along with the Big East were both weak conferences this season and this is a major step up game for the Tigers. Keep in mind that the Tigers lost to West Virginia 70-33 last year in the Orange Bowl. So while they are sure pointing to putting that embarrassment behind them, this is a team that hasn't stepped up in the postseason. They are 1-5 ATS in bowls the last six years with the lone cover coming by a single point against Kentucky in 2009. PLAY LSU |
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12-29-12 | Navy +14 v. Arizona State | 28-62 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 9 m | Show | |
231 Navy & Arizona State at San Francisco
Because of style of play Navy is a team that wins the turnover battle on a consistent basis. The last four seasons the Midshipmen had a combined +40 turnover advantage. This season with changes at key positions including quarterback they started the year with -3 and -4 turnover losses to Notre Dame and Penn State, as it turned out two pretty good football teams. Since that time the Midshipmen went right back to Navy football taking very good care of the ball in winning 7 of 8 to end the season. In a game featuring a long layoff we would much rather trust players who put their lives on the line everyday as opposed to a team just happy to be playing in a bowl. While many will talk about Navy being at a disadvantage come bowl season because of the opposition having more time to prepare for their option football, it's notable that the Midshipmen are 5-3 ATS as of late in the postseason. Arizona State lost to every decent team they played this season with the signature wins coming against Utah, California and Arizona. They also beat the likes of Northern Arizona, Illinois, Colorado and Washington State. The Sun Devils have proven themselves against bad football teams but they have yet to step up against a quality opponent. Are they the better team in this matchup? No doubt about it. Are they two touchdowns better than Navy? No way. The Sun Devils haven't won a bowl game since 2005, losing the last three bowlers by a combined 67 points. PLAY NAVY |
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12-28-12 | Rutgers +2.5 v. Virginia Tech | 10-13 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
225 Rutgers & Virginia Tech in Orlando
The Scarlet Knights are looking to extend their nations best five game bowl winning streak with a victory over Virginia Tech. We prefer Rutgers here in what is expected to be a low scoring contest. This team has the superior stop unit that allowed more than 20 points just three times all season, 26 at Arkansas , 27 at Pittsburgh and 35 vs Kent State. Rutgers takes great care of the football as they have now gone five straight seasons with a positive turnover differential. Virginia Tech is on a 7-19-1 spread run. This is a team that is a shell of past Hokies squads. The special teams in the past were excellent but Virginia Tech no longer has that advantage. It's also a team prone to turning the football over with three games of a negative 3 turnover disadvantage. The defense hasn't played a decent game since mid-September and the offense is inconsistent. We will back the slight dog here with an excellent track record in this post season contests. PLAY RUTGERS |
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12-20-12 | BYU v. San Diego State UNDER 48 | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
206 BYU & San Diego State
Cougar games have been easy to handicap by looking at the quality of opposition faced. When playing teams with formidable defenses this BYU offense struggles. But in turn the Cougar defense steps up. Case in point are the contests against Boise State a 7-6 loss, Utah State a 6-3 win, Notre Dame a 17-14 loss and San Jose State a 20-14 defeat. We feel this contest against San Diego State will be much the same. A major defensive struggle for both teams. San Diego State didn't face many quality stop units in the Mountain West Conference, with only Boise State being considered stout defensively. That contest ended with a 21-19 Aztecs victory. In the opener against Washington only 33 points were scored. The one outlier in the group was a 38-34 home loss to San Jose State in a contest where neither team was able to slow down the passing attacks. The Aztecs held 5 of 7 teams to under 20 points down the stretch and they have enough to make the Cougars really work for points here. Rocky Long and Bronco Mendenhall are both defensive minded coaches who faced off against each other many times over the years. PLAY UNDER |
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12-01-12 | Texas v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
316 Texas at Kansas State
Huge coaching mismatch here as Mack Brown and his Longhorns end another disappointing year, while Bill Snyder and the Wildcats rebound from its first loss of the season. Texas came out of its bye last week to fall flat on its face at home to TCU and the better coached Horned Frogs. TCU was also off a bye last week which again points to the poor job Mack Brown has done here in Austin. At 8-3 on the year Texas needs a win here and a bowl victory to get back to double digit wins for the first time since 2009. That's simply not going to happen. Kansas State saw it's undefeated season and chance at the National Championship fall by the wayside two weeks ago in Waco. But if any coach can motivate his team off a devastating loss it would be Bill Snyder. His teams are 23-13 ATS off a loss since 2000 and the extra week of preparation assures a focused squad. After allowing 52 points to Baylor you can rest assured the Wildcat defense will be fired up here. To show the coaching mismatch in this series let's take a look at recent history. Last year as an 8 point favorite Texas lost to Kansas State 17-13, the prior year at -3 Texas lost 39-14, the prior meeting as a 14 1/2 point favorite Texas lost 41-21 and in 2006 at -16 Texas lost 45-42. So over the last four meetings despite being favored by a combined 41 1/2 points Texas was beaten outright by 52 points. For those keeping track Kansas State has beaten Texas against the spread by 93 1/2 points in the last four meetings. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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12-01-12 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 51 | 32-28 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 21 m | Show | |
334 Alabama vs Georgia
Conference championship games are played closer to the vest than regular season games because the outcome is so important. Neither team wants to risk a turnover by making a key mistake. It also helps in this case because we really like these two stop units. Alabama hasn't permitted more than 17 points to all but one opponent this season. That lone team to score more was Texas A&M at 29 points in a game the Crimson Tide lost the turnover battle by three. Alabama is coming in off back to back shutouts and they have blanked 4 of 12 teams it faced this season. Alabama only faced one quality defense all season, LSU, and that game totaled 38 points. The last five games for the Bulldogs it held the opposition to 10, 14, 0, 10 and 9 points. This stop unit has gotten better as the season has gone along, very similar to how Georgia played down the stretch a year ago. In two games against quality defenses Georgia games totaled 42 vs South Carolina and 26 against Florida. We look for another grind it out type of game here. PLAY UNDER |
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11-24-12 | Vanderbilt v. Wake Forest +12 | 55-21 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 35 m | Show | |
142 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest
If there ever was a letdown situation in college football this is it. Two weeks ago the Commodores rode a fourth and long quarterback scramble in the final two minutes to beat Mississippi 27-26. Last week they beat up on in-state rival Tennessee in dominating fashion 41-18. Vanderbilt has long been the little sister in this rivalry and the team had the game circled as they had lost a controversial overtime game the prior season. Not only did the team celebrate after the game, but coach James Franklin let his team return to the field from the locker room to celebrate with the remaining fans. Now bowl eligible and with an impressive blowout win over their biggest rival Vanderbilt travels to take on a non-conference opponent that they beat 41-7 last year. Wake Forest on the other hand has scored a grand total of six points the last two games. Last week they were shut out against Notre Dame. But now back home where they are 4-2 straight up the Demon Deacons can become bowl eligible with a victory. This situation has always been a good one under Jim Grobe as his teams are 15-7 ATS in the home dog role. Over the last four meetings the line in this rivalry has been 1 1/2, 5, 4 and single point. Now the Demon Deacons are catching double digits. Too much of an adjustment has been made here as the host takes this one to the wire. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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11-24-12 | Virginia +10 v. Virginia Tech | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 66 h 2 m | Show | |
149 Virginia at Virginia Tech
For many years the Cavaliers have been the less talented of these two teams dropping 12 of the last 13 meetings. But even in a disappointing season the Virginia players must be thinking that this is the year. Virginia is playing much better ball now than early in the season when they returned just 12 starters. They have won two of the last three games including a 33-6 road victory at NC State. Just two weeks ago the Cavaliers beat Miami Florida, the same Hurricanes squad that pounded these Hokies 30-12 just the week before. Virginia Tech needs a victory here to become bowl eligible. The same program that has gone bowling for 19 straight years is fighting to become bowl eligible in their final game. That pretty much tells you what kind of year it has been in Blacksburg. The Hokies have dropped five of their last seven games with the only victories coming against Duke and Boston College. Virginia Tech used to dominate the special teams part of the game but this year the special teams are anything but special. This is what is truly considered a rivalry game and the Cavaliers would like nothing better to send this Hokie team packing for the winter. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-24-12 | Indiana +6 v. Purdue | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 1 m | Show |
Indiana at Purdue
What a difference two weeks make. Indiana had been riding high having beaten Illinois and Iowa and taken Navy and undefeated Ohio State to the wire. Purdue on the other hand had lost five straight games. But in the last two weeks the Hoosiers lost badly to physical squads Wisconsin and Penn State while Purdue edged Iowa and Illinois. Had the timing of these games been reversed the Hoosiers would likely be a pick here instead of a 6 point underdog. Keep in mind that Indiana beat Illinois and Iowa themselves by 17 combined points while the Boilermakers won by 6 against those two squads. Both teams were blown out by Wisconsin and each took Ohio State to the wire. So in reality these two teams are a carbon copy of each other against similar opponents. So the question to be asked is why are the Boilermakers a substantial favorite? We have found out by watching these two programs that Indiana struggles when playing physical opposition that can dominate them in the trenches. But that's just not the type of team Purdue has. They are more like the Hoosiers in their playing style. We have been very impressed by the job Kevin Wilson has done this year in Bloomington, as this team is unfamiliar with the word quit. After dropping three of the last four meetings Indiana has something to prove here. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-23-12 | Syracuse v. Temple OVER 56.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 18 m | Show |
119 Syracuse at Temple
The Orangemen are already bowl eligible so this game doesn't have any real significance. Over the last month they beat South Florida and Missouri in last second comebacks and knocked Louisville from the unbeaten ranks. This game will be played without any pressure. The last five games they have put up 31, 45, 24, 37 and 40 points as the offense is really clicking. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Syracuse. Temple has permitted 9.8, 11.6, 10.2 and 11.5 yppa the last four games, which is not a good sign against this aggressive Syracuse passing game. Over the last five contests the Owls have given up 32, 34, 45, 47 and 35 points. With this being the last game of the season for Temple we expect a wide open no holds barred offensive game. Similar to last week when the Owls let it all hang out against Army, we expect plenty of points to be scored. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-12 | Akron +19 v. Toledo | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
101 Akron at Toledo
The Zips have a full four extra days to prepare for this matchup after an embarrassing 22-14 home loss to Massachusetts. Akron went off as a 14 1/2 point favorite in that game and it was the first FBS victory for the Minutemen. The Zips lost the turnover battle 5 to 2 which has been a problem all season for Terry Bowden's crew. But the good news is the Zips are an impressive 4-5 ATS even when losing the turnover battle, which shows they are a team with value. This is a huge game for Akron as they get a rare chance to play in front of a national television audience. With single game victories in each of the last three seasons Akron is rarely in the national spotlight. Toledo is coming off back to back losses to Ball State and Northern Illinois. The loss last week to the Huskies cost the Rockets a chance at the MAC Championship Game. They are already assured a bowl bid so motivation is a key in this one. The offense will likely be without star running back David Fluellen who has accounted for 1,460 rushing yards this season. The Rockets biggest win in conference this year was a 20 point victory at Western Michigan when they held a plus four turnover edge. At home in conference they own wins by 12 and 15 points with a 7 point defeat. With a lack of motivation it's tough to lay this type of number with an offense that has produced 24, 27, 25 and 29 points the last four games, especially without their best offensive performer. PLAY AKRON |
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11-17-12 | BYU -3 v. San Jose State | 14-20 | Loss | -101 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
381 BYU at San Jose State
This line is extremely cheap as it opened higher and moved down because of a quote from the San Jose State coach. Basically he talked about how big this game was for his up and coming team and how much a win would boost the program. That's all well and good but how does that make for a full three point line adjustment. In fact, if Louisiana Tech is able to beat Utah State earlier Saturday, next weeks game means much more to the Spartans. They would then be able to share the conference crown if they beat Louisiana Tech at home next week. San Jose State has been able to wear out teams with their depth in the second half of games as of late, they won't be able to do that against BYU. Because of missions and the like BYU players traditionally are older, bigger and stronger than the opposition and it's paid off late in the season. Since 2004 the Cougars have covered a full 60% of their games the last five weeks of the regular season. Therefore the advantage the Spartans used the last four weeks against the likes of Texas San Antonio, Texas State, Idaho and New Mexico State will be lessoned considerably by the veteran Cougars. BYU only has New Mexico State on deck while San Jose State takes a major step up in class this week against BYU and with the Bulldogs on deck. The coach can say all he wants to the press about the importance of this game but BYU knows they are the team with the horses here. The Cougars have held all but two opponents this year to 17 points or less, they have the players to shut down this San Jose State offense who pilled up gaudy numbers against far lesser competition. PLAY BYU |
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11-17-12 | Colorado State v. Boise State -28 | 14-42 | Push | 0 | 32 h 32 m | Show | |
358 Colorado State at Boise State
The Rams sure are getting a lot of credit here based on their recent play. Last week they blew away a UNLV team that has been horrendous on the road the past few seasons. The Rebels are on a 4-49 straight up run on the road and haven't won in enemy territory since a victory in New Mexico in 2009. The prior week the Rams lost at Wyoming by 14 allowing 45 points in the process. The week before that Colorado State beat Hawaii at home by 15, but the Warriors are one of the worst teams in the FBS. Prior to those victories over UNLV and Hawaii the Rams had failed to score 23 points or more in every game this season. On the road as of late the Rams have lost by margins of 14, 24, 21, 20 and 24 points. Boise State has produced 10 or more win seasons in 9 of the last 10 years. With wins over Colorado State and Nevada they add another double digit season to their resume. This is a team that has dominated lesser competition winning by 35 over Hawaii, 31 over Wyoming, 25 over UNLV, 26 over Southern Miss and 27 over Miami Ohio. The only weak squad they didn't overwhelm was New Mexico and they had a huge lead in that game at the half before taking their foot off the gas pedal. The last time the Broncos played on this field they were upset by San Diego State 21-19. Boise State virtually never losses at home, and with a bye next week before facing Nevada to start the month of December, we know coach Peterson will have his teams attention. The Broncos beat the Rams 63-13 last year in a similar price range, we look for another blowout here. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-17-12 | USC -3 v. UCLA | 28-38 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 39 m | Show | |
355 USC at UCLA
The Trojans have three losses on the season, in those games they lost the turnover battle by a combined 7 miscues. USC is 12-1 SU in this series including a 50-0 winner last year at home. The last nine seasons USC has been favored by 16 1/2, 6 1/2, 13, 33, 19 1/2, 11 1/2, 21, 22 1/2 and 23 points, this season the line is just 3. Every time we look to put a fork in this Trojans team they come up with a big effort, we expect a big performance here. UCLA has put up 44, 66 and 45 points the last three weeks but they did so against bad defensive teams. The best stop unit they faced this year was Oregon State and they only managed 20 points at home against the Beavers. Just two weeks ago the Bruins were favored here by 3 points against Arizona, at the current line the markets are saying USC is just 6 points better than Arizona, my differential is 13 between those two opponents. PLAY USC |
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11-17-12 | Memphis +10 v. UAB | 46-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
349 Memphis at UAB
Despite winning just a single game this year Memphis is 5-5 ATS on the season. When losing the turnover battle they have cashed 3 of 5 games which tells us that this team is underrated in the betting markets. Going back to mid 2005 UAB has been a double digit favorite against FBS competition seven times, posting an 0-7 ATS mark and losing outright 6 of those 7 games! They are 3-10 ATS as a double digit conference favorite since 2001. This is a team who lost to Tulane by 10 and Houston by 22, they are not a team you want to lay points with. Conference USA double digit favorites over FBS squads are 8-11 42% on the season. The reason being that nobody in this league plays defense which means a backdoor is always wide open. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-14-12 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -10.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
304 Toledo at Northern Illinois
The Rockets sit just one game behind Northern Illinois in the conference standings, but the truth is Toledo isn't in the same ballpark when it comes to talent. These two clubs have faced four of the same opponents this year, Central Michigan, Ball State, Buffalo and Western Michigan. Each team played twice on the road and twice at home. Northern Illinois has outscored these opponents 183-84. Toledo holds a 139-106 scoring margin. Northern Illinois has a full three extra days to prepare and are on a 13-6-1 spread run as home favorites, 11-3 ATS as conference home favorites. Northern Illinois has lost just once all season against the spread and that came by just two points against Army in a game with a -3 turnover differential. We've been riding the Huskies all season long as they continue to be underrated in the marketplace. That won't be the case after this nationally televised win. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-10-12 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -3 | Top | 27-26 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 14 m | Show |
132 Vanderbilt at Mississippi
Vanderbilt has gotten a great deal of publicity after beating two bad teams the last two weeks. A 49-7 win over UMass and a 40-0 victory over Kentucky. But keep in mind this is the same team who lost to Georgia by 45 and struggled to beat Auburn at home 17-13 three weeks ago. Vandy is a very good defensive team but they have yet to score over 19 points against even an average opponent. Mississippi was pounded by the Volunteers each of the last two years but the Rebels are a much better team this season. Ole Miss is 5-3 on the year after winning two and four games each of the last two seasons. With five victories the Rebels can become bowl eligible with a victory here and considering they have LSU and Mississippi State on deck you know they will be fully focused. Vandy is also on the verge of bowl eligibility but they have a much easier path to end the season with in-state rival Tennessee next week followed by Wake Forest. Mississippi needs this game and they have a score to settle with the Volunteers. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-10-12 | South Alabama Jaguars +10 v. North Texas | 14-24 | Push | 0 | 72 h 36 m | Show | |
211 South Alabama at North Texas
The Jaguars had a terrific FCS program the last few years winning 23 of 27 contests before joining to Sun Belt this season. While the team sits at 2-7 on the year they are adjusting to the step up in class. Prior to the bye week on October 6th the Jaguars had a 1-4 record being outscored by a combined margin of 61 points. But since that extra week of preparation South Alabama has played very competitive football. They have cashed 2 of 4 weeks with the point spread losses coming by margins of 2 and 4 1/2 points. The Jaguars lost the turnover battle in both those games which prevented them from cashing. While the defense remains a work in progress we like the way the offense has improved since the break. The Jaguars have put up 29, 37, 24 and 20 points against some pretty good Sun Belt squads. They will be taking a step down in class this week with North Texas. The Mean Green own victories over Texas Southern, Florida Atlantic and Louisiana. In each of those games North Texas had a turnover advantage of +2. The defense has been shredded through the air the last two games allowing 10.3 and 11.6 yards per pass attempt. The offense has yet to score more than 30 points against any FBS entrant. This is not the type of team we want laying a big number. In two games as favorites this season the Green Wave backers came up empty. They do so again here as South Alabama gives the Green Wave all they can handle. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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11-10-12 | Penn State v. Nebraska -7 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 70 h 55 m | Show | |
150 Penn State at Nebraska
The Nittany Lions have an impressive 6-3 record this season which is really saying something about the job Bill O'Brien has done in State College. But let's look back at the teams they have played: Ohio U isn't the same team Frank Solich has had in the past and they still beat Penn State. Virginia is way down this season and the Nittany Lions still lost to the Cavaliers. Navy was really struggling early in the season when they faced Penn State. Temple has taken a major step down this season when moving out of the MAC. Illinois is downright terrible. Northwestern is the most impressive win on the season but Penn State trailed that game by double digits late. Iowa is a bad football team. Ohio State is the best team Penn State has faced and they were never in that game at home. Purdue, like Illinois and Iowa is way down this year. Now the Nittany Lions take to the road to face a very good Nebraska team. Penn State has a solid defense but we just can't see them trading points with the Huskers. Nebraska's only losses this year were at UCLA and Ohio State. Big Ten teams never fare well when traveling west and the Buckeyes game was much closer than the final margin. That game was a coin flip until Nebraska starting turning the ball over. The Huskers have been at their best this year in Memorial Stadium posting a 4-1 spread mark. With just Minnesota and Iowa on deck this is the biggest game remaining on their schedule. Penn State has trouble with mobile quarterbacks and while Taylor Martinez has some faults he has great agility. We look for the Penn State lack of depth to be a problem here as Nebraska pulls away in the second half. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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11-06-12 | Ball State v. Toledo OVER 68.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
101 Ball State at Toledo
Ball State has played on the road five times this season. Those final point totals were 79, 80, 88, 71 and 52 points. They combined to surpass the posted total by 52 points with the lone under coming last time out at Army. The last three meetings in this series resulted in final points of 73, 55 and 67. The Cardinals passing attack has improved as the season has gone along but they continue to get burned when in pass coverage. Toledo's home schedule has been stacked with teams with better defenses than offenses including Bowling Green and Cincinnati. This is a better offensive team than they have shown and now stepping down in class they can really prosper against this Ball State stop unit. Toledo hasn't faced a good offensive team since the opener at Arizona and the Wildcats are much better offensively now than they were at that point of the season. Last year the Rockets ran all over the Cardinals averaging 4.8 yards per carry, we expect more of the same here. We made this line Toledo -7 so there is no advantage on the side, but with the defensive minded opposition Toledo has faced this season we could see a coming out party offensively for the Rockets. PLAY OVER |
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11-03-12 | Pittsburgh +17 v. Notre Dame | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
357 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
These two teams have met each of the last four seasons with the highest line being 7 points in last years 15-12 Irish victory. In fact, the final margins in this series have been 3, 6, 5 and 3 points. After the first two games of the season in which new coach Paul Chryst took over the program this Panther team has covered 5 of 6, holding the opposition to 17 or less in 5 of those 6 games. Pitt is 11-4-2 ATS as a road underdog and we are sure Pitt has this game circled after losing very late to the Irish last season. Tino Sunseri hasn't thrown a pick in the last five games as his play has been a major reason why the Panthers are making money for their backers. Notre Dame is undefeated and is the talk of the college football world after beating Oklahoma last week 30-13. But keep in mind that that contest wasn't decided until late in the game. In fact, it's the third straight Notre Dame game decided in the final quarter. They beat Stanford in overtime on a controversial call and edged BYU 17-14 just two weeks ago. The Irish defense has been solid all season but this offense has surpassed 20 points just three times all year. Off the biggest win in a long time for the Irish do you really think you will get a focused Notre Dame squad this week? The Irish are 1-3 ATS at home this year and they haven't posted a winning home favorite mark in a decade. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-03-12 | Texas State Bobcats +26 v. Utah State | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 14 m | Show | |
339 Texas State at Utah State
The Bobcats should be the much fresher team here already having two bye weeks while the Aggies are playing for the tenth straight week. Other than a 58-10 blowout loss to Texas Tech after their presumed huge upset over Houston in opening week, this team has been competitive in every game. Texas State won't dazzle you offensively but they are good enough defensively to keep this game well within point spread range. Utah State has been a big story in college football this year dating back to the big in-state upset of Utah on national television in week two. Since that time they took Wisconsin and BYU to the wire and blew out just about everyone on their schedule. Last week they beat up on Texas San Antonio 48-17. But now playing their tenth straight week, with the bye finally arriving next week, and with the huge match-up with Louisiana Tech on November 17th, this could be a major flat spot for the Aggies. We are getting a team that has to be a bit overconfident right now off three straight 40+ offensive performances, now playing a new entrant to the conference that they are unfamiliar with. We expect this Bobcats team to be completely overlooked on Saturday. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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11-03-12 | Western Michigan -2.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
367 Western Michigan at Central Michigan
Big drop in quality of opposition here for the Broncos who just lost in overtime at Ball State, by 17 at Kent State and by 14 hosting Northern Illinois. That's a very tough schedule as only Ohio U, Toledo and Bowling Green are of the same quality as those three foes. Now Western Michigan finishes the season with three beatable opponents in the Chippewas, Buffalo and Eastern Michigan. The Broncos had lost five straight games in this series before crushing Central Michigan last year in Kalamazoo 44-14. They won that game by 30 points without having any type of turnover edge. This team has stepped up this year when dropping down in class so they are a hidden gem in the betting markets. They lost to Toledo, Ball State, Kent State and Northern Illinois but crushed UMass 52-14. Central Michigan got back into the win column last week as they pulled away from Akron 35-14. But the Zips are not a very deep team and the long season has started to take a toll. The Chippewas have one of the lowest home field advantages in college football as they have gone 1-3 ATS here in 2010, 1-4 ATS here last year and just 1-4 ATS at home in 2012. They also have lost 23 of their last 28 overall games against the spread. Keep in mind that this program was 12-2 in 2009 before Dan Enos took over. They haven't won more than three games in any year since. We get the better team dropping down in class off three straight losses. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-01-12 | Eastern Michigan +17 v. Ohio | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 48 m | Show | |
303 Eastern Michigan at Ohio U
The Eagles have been a cellar dweller for a long time in the Mid-American Conference but we like the job Ron English is doing in Ypsilanti. While the team is just 1-7 on the season they have played very respectable football as of late. Three weeks ago Eastern Michigan took Toledo to the wire in a 52-47 home contest, the Bearcats of Cincinnati know how good this Rockets team can be. The following week the Eagles beat Army 48-38 in a solid performance. Last week they dropped a 24-3 contest with Bowling Green as a -3 turnover differential did them in. To only fail to cover by 7 points with a -3 differential continues to show us that there is a bye sign on the Eagles. Last week our only MAC play was Miami Ohio plus the points over Ohio U, an outright underdog winner. We talked about the banged up Bobcats and how they were overrated in the betting markets. Now for the second straight week we get the chance to go against Ohio U here as the general public has yet to catch on to the Bobcats downward trend. This team is 7-1 straight up on the season but just 3-5 ATS. This despite the fact that they own a plus 16 turnover margin, having never lost the turnover battle in any game. If you go back and negate the turnovers and their 4 point average value, Ohio U would have covered just twice all season, showing a combined negative mark of 73 points to the point spread. While both teams are playing on a short week the Bobcats have a huge nationally televised game next Wednesday against Bowling Green. That's followed up with midweek nationally televised games against Ball State and Kent State, so this is by far the least important game on the remaining schedule for Ohio U. Throw in the fact that they have beaten Eastern Michigan 7 of the last 8 meetings and you have a disinterested favorite. With Frank Solich on a 7-10 ATS run off an outright loss we will take the generous points with Eastern Michigan in a rare TV appearance. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-27-12 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 57.5 | 9-23 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show | |
205 Michigan at Nebraska
Despite the fact that Michigan has held five straight opponents to 13 points or less, we expect this to be a high scoring affair similar to the 45-17 contest from a year ago. The Wolverines have looked good defensively but they have faced the likes of Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State, all teams that struggle to put points on the board. Offensively Michigan has only struggled against Alabama, Notre Dame and Michigan State, three elite defenses. Nebraska's stop unit is far from elite, in fact this is a terrible match-up defensively for the Black Shirts. Because of the way Bo Pelini teaches defense the defensive backfield is left out on an island, which makes the Huskers susceptible to a running quarterback like Michigan's Robinson. So look for a big offensive game from the Wolverine backfield which will open up passing lanes for the receivers. While Nebraska really struggled against a similar styled quarterback in Miller of Ohio State, the offense can trade points with anybody. Nebraska has scored 29 points or better in every game this season including averaging 32.3 ppg in Big Ten action. PLAY OVER |
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10-27-12 | Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 52 | 27-42 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 42 m | Show | |
141 Hawaii at Colorado State
Both teams are coming off an extra week to prepare after being scorched defensively heading into the break. Hawaii permitted 35 to New Mexico, 52 to San Diego State, 47 to BYU and 69 to Nevada. Colorado State allowed 38 to San Diego State, 28 to Fresno State, 42 to Air Force, 31 to Utah State and 40 to San Jose State. So you know exactly what area both coaching staffs have been working on the last two weeks. Each team has just a single win on the season with the Rams beating in-state rival Colorado in the season opener while the Warriors' lone win came against FCS entrant Lamar. We expect both squads to play very close to the vest because turnovers have been a major reason for their lack of success this season. Colorado State has lost the turnover battle in all but two games all year, and Hawaii amazingly has lost the turnover battle by at least two in every single game against FBS competition. The Warriors high offensive output on the year against FBS schools was 24 against Nevada, being held to 14 or less in 3 of 5 games against FBS opposition. Colorado State on the other hand reached a peak of 22 points in the opener against Colorado. Neither team has what you could call a potent passing game and with all the turnover problems between these two expect a steady diet of the running games. PLAY UNDER |
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10-27-12 | Ohio v. Miami (OH) +7 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 34 m | Show |
116 Ohio U at Miami Ohio
The Bobcats are coming out of their bye at 7-0 on the season and a first ever ranking in the BCS Standings coming in at #24. While Ohio has remained undefeated they have struggled to win by margins. Beating Marshall by 3, Massachusetts by 3, Buffalo by 7 and Akron by 6. This is a team that has suffered all season long with injuries and despite the bye week the troops are not getting any healthier. Ohio has beaten Miami six straight times and they have nationally televised games the next two weeks against Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green. In three MAC games this season Ohio U has failed to cover the number by a combined 39 1/2 points. So despite a lofty national ranking and an undefeated record this Ohio team is a step down from previous editions. Miami is also coming off a bye but unlike Ohio U they entered the bye off two blowout losses to Cincinnati and Bowling Green. Angry teams with an extra week to prepare are always dangerous, especially knowing they have lost six straight games in this series. With Ohio U having a game this upcoming Thursday and Miami not playing again until Saturday we know which team will be fully focused here. Miami has won 5 of their last 6 games in Yager Stadium straight up with the only loss being a 24-21 defeat to Western Michigan last season. With a 3-4 record on the year this is a must win game for the host. Ohio has shown no reason to be laying a touchdown to the Redhawks here as we expect this one to be decided in the closing minutes. PLAU MIAMI OHIO |
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10-26-12 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
107 Cincinnati at Louisville
The Bearcats are coming off their first loss on the season last week at Toledo but the final score was not indicative as to how the game was played. Toledo scored 29 points but their only two touchdowns were on special teams and interception scores. Cincinnati dominated in yardage and lost with a negative turnover differential. Because of that outcome we have an extremely motivated underdog here who has won the last four meetings in this rivalry. The Bearcats came out of their bye with a solid victory over Virginia Tech before blowing out in-state rival Miami Ohio. They then crushed Fordham before possibly looking past the Rockets last week. With only Syracuse and Temple on the horizon this is the game the Bearcats have circled, especially since the Cardinals enter play undefeated. Louisville has beaten just a single team with a winning record, North Carolina, and they almost blew a huge lead in that contest. Louisville is 7-0 on the season but even in victory they have been less than impressive. A 28-21 win at Florida International when the Panthers QB didn't play the entire game, a 21-17 win at Southern Miss who has been a disaster this season, and last week they needed a late rally to beat South Florida 27-25, a Bulls team that had gone 3-12-1 ATS in conference the previous 16 Big East games. Louisville hasn't had a winning spread record at Papa John's Stadium in any year since 2006 and they lost by exactly eight points each of the last two times hosting Cincinnati. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-20-12 | East Carolina -2.5 v. UAB | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
395 East Carolina at UAB
Now that the line has dipped below the key number of 3 we are ready to lay it with the clearly stronger team. East Carolina has lost to the superior teams on its schedule South Carolina, North Carolina and Central Florida but they've had little trouble when stepping down in class. Wins by 22 over Appalachian State, by 10 at Southern Miss, by 10 over UTEP and by 34 over Memphis. The Pirates have beaten UAB each of the last five years by margins of 5, 10, 16, 4 and 35 points, all higher than the current spread in this game. With a non-conference affair on deck against Navy there is no lookahead here for Ruffin McNeill's squad. UAB has been a team that has taken money in the betting markets on a consistent basis and we're still asking why. It's not because of a 3-3 spread mark and it's surely not from an 0-5 SU mark against FBS competition. This is a team that has lost by margins of 10 to Troy, 43 to South Carolina, 14 to Ohio State, 7 to Tulsa and 22 to Houston. Now in this price range they are expected to basically win the game? We're not buying it. The defense has permitted 39, 49, 29, 49 and 39 to FBS competition. That's not the type of unit we want in a likely win and cover game. These two have played one common opponent South Carolina. The Blazers lost visiting the Gamecocks by 43 points despite winning the turnover battle. East Carolina lost at South Carolina by 38 despite a -4 turnover deficit. The Pirates are clearly the better team here and yet the betting markets aren't showing it. We will lay the small number with the much better defense. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-20-12 | South Florida v. Louisville -5.5 | 25-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 35 m | Show | |
384 South Florida at Louisville
Now that the line has dipped below 6 we will step in and lay it with the Cardinals. USF continues to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot as they simply do not value the football. In 5 of 6 games this year South Florida has lost the turnover battle by two or more. Even against lesser teams like Chattanooga, Ball State and Temple USF was on the short end of the turnover battle. Many will want to back the Bulls coming off a bye but this team is 0-5 ATS with an extra week to prepare the last three seasons. Louisville runs the ball well and South Florida has had a major weakness stopping the run. If that continues QB Bridgewater could have a huge day. After putting up 28 or more in all but one game we could see the Cardinals having a great deal of offensive success on Saturday. Coming off their worst defensive performance of the year we also expect a bounce back game from this defensive unit. Louisville does have a big game on deck next Friday against Cincinnati, but after dropping 2 of the last 3 meetings with USF Charlie Strong won't look past this team. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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10-20-12 | Florida International v. Troy -6.5 | 37-38 | Loss | -114 | 98 h 39 m | Show | |
412 Florida International at Troy
FIU has been a major disappointment this year coming in off an 8-5 season with 17 starters returning including ten defensively. After allowing just 19.5 ppg a season ago every opponent has scored at least 28 against the Golden Panthers. Points allowed of 46, 38, 33, 28, 48, 34 and 34 does not bode well for this FIU defense going forward. Offensively this team is about that same as last year with 5 of 7 games seeing 20-26 points. In three road games this season the Golden Panthers lost by 20 at Duke, 13 at Central Florida and 28 at Louisiana. Troy has lost to FIU each of the last two years. In overtime last season and as an 8 1/2 point favorite in 2010. That assures us that the Trojans will be fully focused on Saturday. Troy has dropped all three home games this season against Louisiana, Mississippi State and Western Kentucky, but they take a step down in competition this week. With just Florida Atlantic on deck this game is a must for the Trojans. Corey Robinson left last game with a concussion, so the starting junior quarterback will be a game time decision. The line is based on him not playing so if he does go we expect this number to rise steadily. Even without him the Trojans are a bargain at this price as Deon Anthony gives the team a dangerous runner that can exploit a very weak FIU rush defense. The Golden Panthers have major problems stopping the run and a dual threat quarterback could really have a big day. Anthony has gotten consistent work off the bench this year and with first string reps he could be in for a nice game on Saturday. Let's lock this one in while the line is under a touchdown and it Robinson returns we have an added bonus. PLAY TROY |
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10-20-12 | Iowa State +14.5 v. Oklahoma State | 10-31 | Loss | -115 | 67 h 50 m | Show | |
387 Iowa State at Oklahoma State
The Cyclones continue to slide under the radar in the betting marketplace with a 3-1-1 spread mark against FBS competition. You fared even better by betting them early last week against Kansas State before the line settled at 6. Teams that play solid defense and run the football are always going to get to the betting window, especially in the underdog role. The games are lower scoring and points become more of a factor. In the Paul Rhodes regime here in Ames the Cyclones are 8-4 ATS as a conference road underdog. Iowa State gives us a dangerous dog this week as this defense has held every opponent to 27 points or less and that includes the likes of Kansas State and Texas Tech who have gotten a great deal of press knocking off the likes of Oklahoma and West Virginia. This line is inflated this week because the Cowboys are looking to exact some revenge for their only loss last season as Iowa State upset them 37-31 in double overtime as a 27 1/2 point underdog. While the motivation is there for Oklahoma State we're not sure the talent remains in Stillwater. This team is just 3-2 on the season losing to Arizona by 21 and at home to Texas by 5. The Wildcats are a middle of the road at best PAC 12 squad and we all saw the Longhorns weakness last week against Oklahoma. Defensively Oklahoma State is allowing 34.5 points per game vs FBS foes and that includes games against Kansas and a Sun Belt entrant. Oklahoma State surely wants revenge but they don't have the same ammunition as the past two Cowboys editions. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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10-13-12 | California v. Washington State +7.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 15 m | Show | |
180 California at Washington State
Talk about an overreaction. Last week we put out a video backing California against an overrated UCLA squad. So the 43-17 victory over the Bruins wasn't a total surprise. Now after winning their very first game against an FBS opponent the Bruins are installed as a sizable road favorite? We're not drinking what the betting markets are serving. This is a team that has a 3-12 ATS mark as road favorites and they haven't posted a winning spread record in that role in any year since 2005, you have to go back to 2004 for any positive spread mark on the road. Off a blowout win over hated rival UCLA and with Stanford on deck do you really think they will get up for a team they have beaten seven straight times? California hasn't covered a game in the State of Washington in the last three years. Washington State is 2-4 on the season and their most impressive win came against UNLV. But let's take a look at how the Cougars have played as of late. They were competitive against the best team in the conference Oregon, covering by 5 1/2 in Seattle. Last week they cashed at Oregon State, the only time the Beavers have failed to cover this season. Washington State has produced a winning home dog record in 5 of the last 7 seasons and are 1-0 in that role this year. Pullman is likely the toughest place to play location wise in this entire conference. We knew it would take some time for Mike Leach to get his team behind him when he took this job. After posting a 9-40 record the past four seasons we see signs of progress in Pullman. With the Cougars winless in PAC 12 play and a bye on deck this game means much more to the host than the visitor. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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10-13-12 | Florida -7 v. Vanderbilt | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 123 h 13 m | Show | |
143 Florida at Vanderbilt
We are well aware of this being a flat spot for the Gators after playing LSU and with South Carolina on deck. But in our opinion this situation has been highly overcompensated. Florida could quite possibly have the most talented defense in the country. In five games against FBS competition they have permitted just 11.4 points per game. They held Bowling Green to 7.6 points less than they have averaged against the rest of the Falcons schedule. They held Texas A&M to 34.5 points less than the Aggies have averaged against the rest of their schedule. Tennesse was held to 24.25 points less than the Volunteers averaged against anyone else. They held Kentucky to 24.6 ppg less than the remainder of the Wildcats schedule. And last week they held LSU to 39 points less than the Tigers averaged in every other game. Florida has beaten Vanderbilt 21 straight games but after struggling to a 26-21 victory last year, they will be focused at practice this week. In four FBS contests the Volunteers scored 13 against South Carolina, 13 against Northwestern, 3 against Georgia and 19 vs Missouri. How the hell are they going to produce enough points to cover this number. The Commodores have averaged 12.3 points per game the last three seasons in SEC play when not facing the dregs of Kentucky and Mississippi. Therefore the question is will Florida be able to score 21 or more points in this contest? This year the Commodores are allowing 26.7 ppg in league play. Going back 14 games in SEC play the prior three seasons every team not named Mississippi or Kentucky has scored at least 21 points against Vanderbilt. While many will point out that this team has covered four straight in the conference home dog role, before that they failed to cash eight straight in that situation. Vandy took advantage of a weak Missouri team last week to get into the conference win column, that won't be the case this Saturday. PLAY FLORIDA |
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10-13-12 | North Carolina -5 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 18-14 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 54 m | Show |
115 North Carolina at Miami Florida
Ever since the second half of the Louisville game this has been a totally different Tar Heels squad. Over the last 14 quarters North Carolina has outscored the opposition 168 to 43. They did so against Louisville, East Carolina, Idaho and Virginia Tech. This is a team that is peaking right now and they look for triple revenge this week against Miami. The only reason this line hasn't skyrocketed is because the Tar Heels are 0-2 on the road this year losing to Wake Forest by a single point and Louisville by 5. Larry Fedora is doing a hell of a job here in his first season. Miami enters play at 4-2 on the year but they have to be the least impressive 4-2 squad in the country. The four wins were against Boston College who has yet to beat an FBS squad, Bethune Cookman, Georgia Tech who's lone FBS win was against Virginia, and NC State where they used a whopping +5 turnover margin to cover a game by just 5 points. This is not a good football team by any measure. The Hurricanes have permitted 32, 52, 36, 37 and 41 points to every FBS team they have faced this season. The defense of Notre Dame completely shut them down last week and North Carolina's stop unit should have the same success. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-13-12 | Temple v. Connecticut -5.5 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 54 m | Show | |
138 Temple at Connecticut
The Temple Owls could very well be the most overrated team in the country. They are +7 in turnover margin yet they are just 2-2 ATS. Against FBS squads they are 1-2 SU & ATS with a +5 turnover margin. Last week they had a three turnover advantage against South Florida and still only won on their home field by 9 points despite having two of the previous three weeks off to prepare. If South Florida had virtually any other starting quarterback in college football the Bulls would have won that game. Connecticut isn't a quality offense by any means but they have a defense to possibly throw a shutout at the Owls. UConn is allowing just 16.2 points per game this season despite being underdogs in half their contests. They are 3-3 SU on the year despite a -8 turnover margin. The Huskies have played very competitive against a tougher schedule than the one the Owls have faced. They took NC State to the wire in a 10-7 loss, the same NC State team that knocked off Top 10 ranked Florida State last week. While you can't always come to a complete conclusion when comparing how teams did against the same foes, it is interesting that UConn beat Maryland on the road while Temple lost to the Terrapins by 9 points at home. UConn won't dazzle you offensively, but they are the better team here, coming off a 19-3 loss at Rutgers where they handed the game to the Scarlet Knights with a -4 turnover disadvantage. The breaks have fallen the way of the Owls so far while the Huskies haven't caught any of their own. That all changes here. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-11-12 | Arizona State v. Colorado +23 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 5 m | Show |
104 Arizona State at Colorado
Arizona State has been terrific thus far with their only loss coming at Missouri. The traveling fool Todd Graham has really gotten this team off to an impressive start. But after playing Utah and California, with a huge game on deck next Thursday hosting Oregon this is definitely a flat spot on the schedule for the Sun Devils. After all, they pounded Colorado last year 48-14 as the Buffaloes were making their debut season in the PAC 12. While Arizona State has bigger fish to fry this is the biggest game of the year for Colorado. At 1-4 on the season and no bowl game in their future it's a rare nationally televised appearance for the host. Home teams traditionally do well in these early week affairs and Colorado has played much more competitively as of late. The Buffaloes also have an edge with the high altitude here as Arizona State is a team that likes to push the pace. Weather could also be somewhat a concern as the temperatures are expected to reach the low 40's tonight, a major difference from what the Sun Devils are used to. With the public backing the road favorite at 76% it's time to step in and take the points with the ugly dog. PLAY COLORADO |
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10-06-12 | UNLV v. Louisiana Tech OVER 69 | 31-58 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
385/386 UNLV at Louisiana Tech
The Rebels are a much improved offensive team after scoring 17.3 and 18.4 points per game the last two seasons. The signal caller actually has the ability to throw downfield which is something this team lacked the last few years. Nick Sherry is a very talented but young quarterback that keeps defenses honest by not keying on the running game. This team scored 38 against Air Force and 27 vs Washington State, two teams with similar defenses to Louisiana Tech. Defensively the Rebels have permitted at least 30 points to every FBS squad they faced this year, although the Minnesota game did go into triple overtime. Each of the last three opponents totaled 35 and we see this explosive Bulldog offense easily surpassing that total. Louisiana Tech is averaging 52 points per game. They scored 52 against a Big 10 defense and 44 last week against a decent Virginia stop unit. The total points scored in their four games were 105, 93, 76 and 82. UNLV has the worst passing defense they have faced, so it will be easy picking for this Bulldogs squad offensively. Defense is an entirely different matter for this team. Only the offensively inept Illinois team failed to reach 37 points against the Bulldogs, and they managed 24. Louisiana Tech reminds us of those old Denver Nuggets teams of the NBA. They wanted to score so many points they let the other team score at will just so they could get the ball back. Last week Virginia averaged a whopping 11.4 yards per pass attempt against this team and the Cavaliers have a very weak passing game. UNLV gave up 35 points to Washington State only because Mike Leach doesn't have a clue. If he had continued to attack the Rebels through the air his team would have easily surpassed 50, Sonny Dykes isn't so forgiving. PLAY OVER |
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10-06-12 | Texas State v. New Mexico -3.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 57 m | Show | |
402 Texas State at New Mexico
The Bobcats of Texas State shocked the nation in their FBS debut as they beat Houston 30-13 as a 34 1/2 point underdog. But since that time we have come to realize that the Cougars are way down from previous versions and there was infighting in the Houston coaching ranks. Since that time the Bobcats lost hosting Texas Tech 58-10, beat a pretty good FCS entrant Stephen F Austin at home 41-37, and lost hosting Nevada last week 34-21. Nevada had traveled 8,000 miles in the last nine days before coming out sluggish in the rain in San Marcos on Saturday. Once the weather cleared up in the second half the Wolf Pack shut out the Bobcats in a dominating final two quarters. Nevada was clearly sluggish early on facing a team they had never played before when returning from Hawaii. Once they settled down they did anything they wanted against this new FBS upstart. New Mexico is making solid strides under former Notre Dame head coach Bob Davie. The team is 2-3 on the season surpassing any of the last three seasons in victories. They gave Boise State all they wanted last week in a 32-29 home defeat. While Boise is clearly down from previous versions keep in mind the Broncos won 45-0 in last years affair. The New Mexico offense which averaged 12.0, 15.8 and 16.3 the past three seasons is showing some spark. Sure they put up 66 in the opener over FCS entrant Southern and were shut out week two against Texas, but the last three weeks are showing promise. A 14 point effort at Texas Tech, 27 at New Mexico State and 29 last week hosting the Broncos. Both teams played one common opponent Texas Tech. The Roadrunners lost by 48 at home failing to cover the number by 28 points. New Mexico faced Texas Tech on the road and lost by 35, failing to cover the spread by just 3 points. New Mexico is being judged by the last three seasons under Mike Locksley and George Barlow, they are a much better coached team under Davie. The Lobos had a solid program under Rocky Long and they are closer to those teams than what we saw the last three years. This is a cheap number based on recent perception. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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10-06-12 | Wake Forest v. Maryland -4 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 126 h 29 m | Show | |
380 Wake Forest at Maryland
We cashed going against the Demon Deacons last week and we look to do the same on Saturday with the much improved Maryland Terrapins. Wake suffered a major blow last week when Michael Campanaro who was leading the ACC in receptions broke his hand. The team also lost WR Matt James the previous week. Wake now has a redshirt sophomore and a redshirt freshman as their starting receivers. The Demon Deacons have won the turnover battle in all but one game this year yet they are just 2-3 ATS with just one victory coming by more than a field goal. This is a team that lost at home to Duke by 7, lost at Florida State by 52 and struggled to beat Liberty at home 20-17. While Jim Grobe has a reputation as a terrific coach in the underdog role his teams are just 5-10 ATS the last six seasons catching points in conference action. Maryland had last week off after giving West Virginia all they could handle in a 31-21 loss in Morgantown. This team has lost the turnover battle in every game, a -7 margin, yet they are 2-1-1 ATS on the season, being outscored by just 3 points on the year. Maryland is a team that is making mistakes and is still competing, a team that is far under the national radar. With an extra week to prepare for the limited offense of Wake Forest we expect a supreme defensive effort from the Terrapins on Saturday. Keep in mind that Maryland is 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS as of late with the Demon Deacons winning the last two times at home by margins of 48 and 26 points. PLAY MARYLAND |
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10-06-12 | Northern Illinois -2.5 v. Ball State | 35-23 | Win | 100 | 100 h 37 m | Show | |
317 Northern Illinois at Ball State
The Huskies continue to be an under appreciated resource for our bankroll as they have been a team we've kept an eye on all season. The quarterback play was a concern coming into the year and through five games the Huskies have thrown just three interceptions. Northern Illinois has been consistently good throwing the football after having a very tough time doing so in the opener at Iowa. Since then we have seen yards per pass attempt numbers of 8.2, 12.7, 6.7 and 7.7. Despite a -4 turnover margin on the season Northern Illinois is 3-1-1 ATS against the closing lines. Ball State has had a very tough time defending the pass allowing 9.2, 10.4, 7.7 and 8.5 yards per pass attempt the past four weeks. Defense as a whole has been a major concern allowing 26 to Eastern Michigan, 52 to Clemson, 39 to Indiana, 27 to South Florida and 45 to Kent State. The Cardinals have a very good offense but we simply can't back this team in this price range when they have by far the worst defense on the field. The 26 permitted to Eastern Michigan was 12 points more than the Eagles have scored against any other opponent. The 52 allowed to Clemson was 7 points more than the Tigers have scored against anyone else. Indiana's 39 was only surpassed by 45 points scored against Massachusetts, a team playing just its second game in the FBS. South Florida scored 27 against Ball State, only surpassed once in an FBS game, a 32-31 comeback at Nevada. The 45 the Cardinals permitted Kent State last week was 22 points higher than the Golden Flashes have produced against any other FBS squad. Northern Illinois has given up 18, 7, 23 and 24 points in four of five games, with only Kansas from the highly powered Big 12 Conference surpassing those numbers. The Huskies defense is the far superior unit on the field this week and Northern Illinois knows how to win on the road going 9-4 straight up in true road games the past three seasons. Ball State is just 7-12 straight up at home the last four seasons. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-06-12 | UMass +17 v. Western Michigan | 14-52 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
339 Massachusetts at Western Michigan
Starting QB Carder is out again for the Broncos as Tyler Van Tubbergen gets the call for the second straight week. Regardless of who is behind center for this team we have serious concerns about their offense. In four FBS games they scored 7 against Illinois, a team that allowed 45, 52 and 35 points to its three other FBS foes. They put up 23 against Minnesota, a team that permitted 31 last week to the offensively inept Iowa Hawkeyes. They did score 30 against UConn but last week managed just 17 against Toledo. What really has us concerned is the yards per pass attempt numbers for the Broncos. Against the four FBS teams they faced Western Michigan produced just 5.6, 4.8, 6.2 and 5.0 yppa. This is a team known for its passing game with over 4200 yards through the air last year. The team lost its top three receivers in the off-season including do everything wideout Jordan White who had an amazing 1911 reception yards a season ago. This team could score quickly in the past which made them a decent favorite, but that doesn't seem to be the case this year. They have been outscored by 26 points against the four teams mentioned and yet they are a three score favorite here, we're not buying it. Massachusetts is in its first season of FBS ball and they were pounded early on by UConn 37-0, Indiana 45-3 and Michigan 63-13, but this team is getting healthier by the week. After competitive 27-16 and 37-34 losses to Miami Ohio and Ohio U, the Minutemen are getting back even more reinforcements this week. Because they had not been a lined team in the past they entered the season with many question marks. But now they are developing into a team we want to back. Still under the radar and improving weekly we will take a shot here with UMass before the betting markets catch up. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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10-06-12 | Northwestern +3 v. Penn State | 28-39 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 19 m | Show | |
331 Northwestern at Penn State
We have been a big proponent of this Wildcats team this year and they have rewarded backers with a perfect 5-0 ATS mark. What has been most impressive is they have won and covered as favorites the past three weeks. Historically Northwestern has been a team you want in the underdog role but want to avoid when giving points. That simply hasn't been the case this season, which tells us that this Pat Fitzgerald team is something special. After a late game rally at Syracuse this team has really come together, and the defense has been better than any other since Fitzgerald came to Evanston in 2006. After five straight losses to Penn State you know this team has this game circled. Penn State has been a team in the public eye all season and the vast majority of fans are rooting for these players who had nothing to do with the sanctions. Their early success has been a terrific story. With a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark thus far you can say Penn State has far surpassed preseason expectations. But now let's look back at the actual outcomes of the Nittany Lion games. In the opener Penn State used a huge emotional first half effort to lead Ohio U at the break. After the emotion subsided the better team showed up and Ohio pulled away for a 24-14 win. Penn State they went to Virginia and dropped a 17-16 decision. The Lions then pounded Navy 34-7, beat Temple 24-13 and crushed Illinois last week 35-7. The key to those games is every one of their opponents has been a major disappointment this year. Virginia is 0-3 SU & ATS since beating Penn State. Navy still hasn't beaten an FBS squad, dropping all three games by double digits ATS. Temple has yet to win an FBS game losing to the spread by double digits against Maryland at home. And Illinois hasn't beaten an FBS team since the opener against Western Michigan when they owned a +3 turnover edge. The Illini lost to Arizona State by 31 and Louisiana Tech by 28. Since the opening day loss to Ohio U Penn State has had a +10 turnover margin the next four games combined. The Nittany Lions haven't had a double digit turnover edge in any season since 2002, so that likely won't continue, especially with the losses they had to transfers. Penn State has been a great story but they are the most overrated team in the country right now, we step in and take the points with the more talented squad. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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10-06-12 | South Florida -4 v. Temple | 28-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 56 m | Show | |
329 South Florida at Temple
The South Florida Bulls should be in an angry mood after dropping three straight games after the great comeback at Nevada, a very tough place to play. But last week's loss to powerhouse Florida State raised the confidence of this team and now they can get back to their preseason goal, winning the Big East Conference. USF hasn't been a good road favorite under Skip Holtz but public expectations have never been lower. After losing 23-13 as an 8 point home favorite against Rutgers in a nationally televised game on September 13th, nobody is standing in line to bet on the Bulls. And that's just the way we like it. Keep in mind just two weeks ago South Florida was installed as an 8 point road favorite at Ball State, now they are laying just 4 at Temple. We have the Cardinals being five points better than the Owls in our power ratings, which gives us a whopping nine point edge from just two weeks ago. The problem for USF has been turnovers as they enter play at a -8 on the season. With just five returning starters on defense for Temple we can't see turnovers costing us here. Temple has played just three games this season. After opening up with a 41-10 victory over FCS entrant Villanova the Owls lost by nine as a home favorite to Maryland and then were beaten 24-13 at Penn State. Temple held the turnover edge in both those games and still failed to cover the spread. We went against the Owls in that Maryland game and late money came in on the Terrapins dropping the line from 10 1/2 all the way down to the closer of 7 1/2. We feel that we have a great handle on the Owls since they were formally playing in the Mid-American Conference, our specialty. Our power rating in that game if you remember was Maryland -1, so we've been far ahead of the curve on this team. With Bernard Pierce and his 1500 rushing yards gone to the NFL this Owls offense is a work in progress. USF has the better athletes and after three straight losses they have the motivation. When we look back on this game after the season it will be obvious that this is a bad line. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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09-29-12 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State +3 | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
116 Texas Tech at Iowa State
We waited all week long looking for this line to get up to +3 but it doesn't look to be the case. Therefore we will step in now and take the 2 1/2 available. In reality teams getting 2 1/2 actually cover more often than teams getting 3 as many bettors will not make a play unless they cover that key number. Texas Tech has outscored the opposition 151-30. Wow they must be good! In actuality they played the likes of Northwestern State, Texas State and New Mexico. Northwestern State was expected to be such a mismatch the Vegas books didn't even send out an added board line. Texas State is in their first year in the FBS and New Mexico is widely considered to be one of the worst programs in Division 1. What a way to prepare your team for Big 12 play! Texas Tech is playing their first game on grass this year and they are just 14-25 on this surface. They lost to Iowa State each of the last two years 41-7 and 52-38 failing to cover the number by a combined 69 points. Iowa State played Tulsa, Iowa and Western Illinois. We have Tulsa and Iowa rated a full 25 points higher than any team the Red Raiders have faced this year, even in likely down years for those two clubs. The Cyclones have been very impressive defending the pass allowing just 4.0, 5.6 and 3.9 yards per pass in their three games. Iowa State went 3-1 ATS in the home dog role last year including outright wins over Iowa and Oklahoma State, the previously unbeaten Oklahoma State, the only loss on the season for the Cowboys. What we are trying to say is Paul Rhodes has this team heading in the right direction off two bowl appearances in his first three years. We get the better team in this match-up at home and catching points against an untested favorite on a surface they struggle. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-29-12 | Miami (OH) v. Akron +6 | Top | 56-49 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 25 m | Show |
164 Miami Ohio at Akron
The betting public has been extremely slow to react to the recent play of both these teams. Miami is 2-2 on the season but they still haven't covered a spread, losing to the line by a combined 39 1/2 points. They opened the season losing to Ohio State 56-10. We've seen how the Buckeyes have struggled at home the last two weeks against Cal and UAB. The Redhawks then lost 39-12 at Boise State, the same Bronco team that was thoroughly outplayed at Michigan State and struggled at home to BYU. Michigan State has since been a major disappointment, even losing at halftime Saturday hosting Eastern Michigan. Boise hasn't scored an offensive touchdown against anyone not wearing a Miami Ohio jersey. Akron turned the ball over four times deep in their own territory against Central Florida in their opener. Other than the turnovers they played the Knights even. The following week they took Florida International to overtime on the road, the same Panthers team that took nationally ranked Louisville to the wire last week. Akron trailed Tennessee by just 3 points in the fourth quarter in Knoxville. They lost the turnover battle and still covered the number by double digits. QB Williams who was tied for second in the nation in touchdowns before the game didn't record a TD and yet the Zips played even with a good SEC team on the road through three quarters. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY AKRON |
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09-29-12 | Duke +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
131 Duke at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils are looking to end a 12 game losing streak to the Demon Deacons on Saturday. But unlike past seasons Duke is the better squad in this match-up. The Blue Devils are 3-1 and a win here could put them in a pretty solid spot to break the long winless season and bowl appearance streaks. Duke's only loss came to Stanford as they had to travel cross country to take on a very good Cardinal squad. Duke pulled off something you rarely see last week when they won the game and covered the spread despite a negative 4 turnover ratio against Memphis. Teams that are able to cover despite losing the turnover battle are teams we pay special attention to, and Duke has covered 3 of 4 games with a seasonal turnover margin of minus 4. While Wake Forest has that long winning streak in this series keep in mind 5 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by six points or less. Wake also sits at 3-1 on the season but they are 2-2 ATS despite winning the turnover battle in each and every game. They lost to Florida State by 52 and struggled to beat Liberty at home in a 20-17 victory. Wake Forest hasn't lost a fumble all season which just shows how fortunate this team has been. Last week coach Grobe and company had to prepare for the Army rushing attack and now this week they face the Duke aerial assault. That's quite a change in just one week and they struggled to stop the Black Knights last Saturday. After allowing 89 combined points the last two weeks they may get their best defender back, but even with his addition Wake Forest has serious defensive concerns. Duke led this game last year late until Wake scored the final touchdown, we look for the Blue Devils to get over than hump this time around. PLAY DUKE |
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09-27-12 | Stanford -6 v. Washington | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 1 m | Show | |
103 Stanford at Washington
Midweek hosts have an edge historically but neither team played last week so that edge has been lessoned. Stanford went a perfect 4-0 ATS on the conference road last year, so despite this being their first road game of the season we don't expect that to be a factor. Stanford is off the big upset win over USC but with the team off last week the celebratory mood should be out of their system. Stanford has played San Jose State, Duke and USC, three teams with just a single loss on the season. What do all three have in common? They lost to this Cardinal team. Stanford has posted winning ATS marks in conference play each of the last four years as this program has turned the corner. The Cardinal have dominated Washington as of late covering by margins of 24, 34, 11 and 7 points the last four years. Even after shutting out the Huskies 41-0 in 2010 Washington was pounded 65-21 last year. There is simply a different level of athlete with these two programs and we saw that earlier when Washington traveled to LSU. The Huskies have played two FBS teams this year in San Diego State and LSU. In those games they own a plus 2 turnover margin and still failed to cover the spread by 7 and 15 1/2 points. While Washington did beat Portland State 52-13 last time out they haven't shown anything positive when stepping up in class. We made this raw number 12 and even with the Thursday Night home advantage we can't see Washington being the right side here, especially now than the line has dropped below a touchdown. The last three seasons the Huskies scored 21, 0 and 14 against this Stanford defense. Off 21 and 3 point games against San Diego State and LSU we haven't witnessed any positive progression. With only one starting offensive lineman healthy we see another tough scoring night for the Huskies. PLAY STANFORD |
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09-22-12 | Akron +35 v. Tennessee | 26-47 | Win | 100 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
377 Akron at Tennessee
This line was late coming out because of the injury to Zips QB Williams who left the Morgan State game because of a rib injury. Williams participated in practice yesterday making all the throws but avoided contact. Today on Wednesday it was announced that he would be a full participant at practice. Akron has improved by leaps and bounds this year under former Auburn coach Terry Bowden who is well versed in SEC football. He would like nothing more than to put a scare into the Volunteers, and the betting markets have been slow to react to the teams improvement. The offense had been nonexistent the last three years but has produced 39.3 ppg this year despite playing two of three games against the excellent defenses of FIU and UCF. Turnovers and dropped passes killed the Zips in the opener against Central Florida but the last two games this offense has been outstanding. Tennessee is in a terrible scheduling situation here coming off the highly anticipated game against Florida and having double revenge motive on deck against Georgia. Despite all the preseason hype for the Volunteers this is still a team that is 13-15 straight up under Derek Dooley. This game is being priced as if it's the same Akron team who went 2-22 the past two seasons. That's simply not the case. The Zips were clearly a poorly coached team under Rob Ianello and now the coaching staff has been upgraded all around. The disposition of the players is night and day from past editions and they are now starting to believe in the system. A line like this is the past made a lot of sense, but not with this team. The betting markets have been slow to react here and we will take full advantage. PLAY AKRON |
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09-22-12 | Utah State -12.5 v. Colorado State | 31-19 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 44 m | Show | |
337 Utah State at Colorado State
We are well aware of the negative scheduling situation for the Aggies here after back to back games against Utah and Wisconsin. But that was already built into the line when it came out at 14. Now that it's 12 1/2 and 13 we will step in with a very undervalued squad with a clear talent edge. Utah State lost last year at home in double overtime to Colorado State as a double digit favorite. That game came right before facing BYU in a clear one way rivalry game. Now with just UNLV up next week the Rams will get the Aggies full attention. We are big proponents of winning the turnover battle and beating the opposition through the air. Despite playing two teams projected to be among the top of the PAC 12 and Big 10, Utah State played even turnover wise and had better yards per passing attempt numbers. They beat Utah in that category 6.8 to 5.9 and Wisconsin 5.2 to 4.9. This is a team that has made solid strides under Gary Anderson who took the Aggies bowling last season. Utah State had four losses by four points or less last year and if it wasn't for a minus 9 turnover margin they wouldn't have this type of value here. Under Anderson this team is 13-7 ATS on the road. Colorado State is simply a bad football team. They won three games in each of the last three seasons and they have somehow regressed. This is a team that lost at home to a very good FCS squad in North Dakota State by 15 points. They also struggled to beat Colorado, a team that is clearly one of the worst BCS squads in recent memory. In three games against a very weak schedule the Rams scored 49 total points. They don't have the athletes to keep up with a Utah State team just coming into their own. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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09-22-12 | Kansas v. Northern Illinois -9.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 35 m | Show | |
346 Kansas at Northern Illinois
Congrats once again to the Kansas brain trust who hired Charlie Weis along with assistant coaches from Akron, the worst FBS program the last two seasons. It's paying off handsomely in the early going. Kansas opened the year with a 31-17 victory over South Dakota State when they held a plus 3 turnover edge. They then lost to Rice and TCU by a combined 15 points, with all three games being played at home. When analyzing Yards Per Pass Attempt data the Jayhawks lost the YPPA battle in every single game. They were beaten through the air by South Dakota State and Rice. Kansas while playing at home has a plus 5 turnover edge thus far and has lost the ATS battle by a combined 17 1/2 points. After this contest the Jayhawks have a bye week before facing in-state rival Kansas State. You know that game has been circled after losses by margins of 38 and 52 points the past two years. The last four seasons the Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS before a bye week, losing to the spread by a combined 104 1/2 points. Northern Illinois hasn't hosted a team from a BCS Conference since 2003 when they were home to Maryland. The Terrapins at the time were ranked 15th in the country and entered DeKalb as an 8 point favorite. When all was set and done Northern Illinois not only covered the spread but beat Maryland outright 20-13. The Huskies have been tremendous against the pass thus far holding Iowa and Army to 3.9 and 1.3 YPPA. While neither of those teams are known for their passing proficiency Kansas hasn't shown any reason to be feared throwing the football. Last year the Huskies went on the road and dropped a 45-42 decision in Lawrence, rushing for over 5 yards per carry. This game means much more to the host as they finally get a BCS program at home, and revenge for one of only three losses from a year ago doesn't hurt our cause. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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09-19-12 | Kent State +4 v. Buffalo | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
301 Kent State at Buffalo
Now that we are seeing 4's pop up on the screen it's time to step in with the underdog here. Kent State was projected to finish higher in the standings than Buffalo, but because of how these two did when playing SEC teams the landscape has changed. But keep in mind Georgia took an early lead against Buffalo and simply ran the ball up the middle for virtually the entire second half. They didn't want to show anything with new SEC entrant Missouri on deck. On the flip side Kent State played Kentucky very even in the first half even after the Wildcats had lost to in-state rival Louisville. Kent State had very good success running the football and according to head coach Darrell Hazell they went out of their comfort level in trying to pass with the Wildcats. Now playing a team with the same type of athletes Kent won't be forced to go away from their main weapon which is the running game. Kent State is allowing just 17.2 points per game their last six MAC contests. They return 8 starters from that defense that was the best in the Mid-American Conference last year. Kent has a terrific two headed running back situation that fared very well against the superior athletes of an SEC squad. While Buffalo put up 23 against Georgia and 56 against Morgan State, keep in mind the Bulldogs got up big early and were disinterested late, and Morgan State allowed 66 to Akron last week with the QB starter leaving early in the second half. When it comes to home field advantage the Bulls rank as one of the least intimidating venues in the conference. Buffalo is just 5-10 ATS as home favorites the last five seasons, covering just twice in that role against an FBS squad. Kent State is the better team and they are coming off a bad second half performance in their last game. Better team and stronger defense as an underdog puts us squarely on the Golden Flashes here. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-15-12 | Utah State v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 47 m | Show |
164 Utah State at Wisconsin
Terrible scheduling spot here for the Aggies who are off quite possibly the biggest win in the programs history. The coaches and players talked about facing Utah in Romney Stadium last week on National Television, and it was clearly a circled game. Now they must regroup and travel to Wisconsin before looking for double overtime loss revenge next week against Colorado State. Utah State has fared well as of late when stepping up in class, but all of their opponents had bigger fish to fry and overlooked the Aggies. Last year they went to Auburn after the Tigers were coming off an undefeated National Championship season. Auburn had major off-season losses and had a conference game against Mississippi State on deck. Last week Utah clearly took this team for granted and it showed early on that the Utes would be in for a game. Utah has their big rivalry showdown with BYU this week. With Wisconsin off a bad showing last week at Oregon State they will not take Utah State for granted. Wisconsin beat a very good Northern Iowa team opening weekend. While the final score was 26-21 the Badgers were clearly in command until getting their depth involved. Last week Wisconsin produced just 7 points at Oregon State, but it's a well known fact the Big 10 struggles when traveling to the west coast. Both Nebraska and Illinois were in the same situation last week. Despite the Utah State showing last week these two programs are on clearly different levels. Wisconsin was 6-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and they have produced just one losing season in that role the past eight years. The Badgers fired their offensive line coach which has been the major offensive problem for this team. Keep in mind that when it comes to offensive line play you would be hard pressed to find a college football team with more offensive line success than this team. Just look at all the draft choices from that position playing in the NFL. We knew Wisconsin would struggle the first two weeks losing an NFL drafted quarterback and traveling west to face a quality opponent in Oregon State. Now we take advantage of a cheap line and pound the clearly more talented and motivated squad. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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09-15-12 | Western Kentucky +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
191 Western Kentucky at Kentucky
Wanted to wait on this for something more than 7 to show up again but it doesn't look like that will be the case. Last week we backed the Wildcats as a cheap home favorite over Kent State and Kentucky pulled away in the second half for an easy point spread cover. But Kent State played Kentucky even through much of that game and we don't think much of the Golden Flashes. In watching the contest it was clear than Kentucky will be a bottom feeder in the SEC this season. But the good news is since they fared so well on the scoreboard we have a similar number here against a far superior team than the one they faced a week ago. Kentucky beat the Hilltoppers 62-28 in 2010 and 14-3 last year so with SEC action starting next week we know which of the two teams will be more motivated here. Western Kentucky handled themselves very well against Alabama last week as Willie Taggart has done a wonderful job in Bowling Green after taking over a winless squad in 2010. Last year Western Kentucky had a winning record and produced a 10-2 spread mark. The Hilltoppers have continued in that cashing vein with ATS wins the first two weeks of the season. Taggart is now 9-3 ATS as a road dog since taking over the reigns and this game means much more to his squad than Kentucky. In last years contest WKU held the Wildcats to 190 total yards of offense and covered the spread by 5 1/2 points despite losing the turnover battle. Now with 16 returning starters we fully expect the outright underdog win. PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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09-15-12 | Wake Forest +27.5 v. Florida State | 0-52 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
117 Wake Forest at Florida State
Florida State came into the season highly touted in many publications and they have done nothing to temper that enthusiasm. But keep in mind that they just played Murray State and Savannah State and have not been tested in the least. The Seminoles have struggled over the years again Wake, losing 4 of the last 6 meetings in straight up fashion. Last year as a double digit favorite Florida State dropped a 35-30 decision to the Demon Deacons. Florida State has their biggest game of the season on deck as they host Clemson, a team that beat them by the same 35-30 score a season ago. This is a team that has struggled mightily as a home favorite posting just one winning season in that role the past 11 years and that was a 4-3 ATS campaign in 2010. Overall the Seminoles are 25-37 ATS in that role. As a conference home favorite they sit at 15-28 ATS the last 11 years without a single winning season against the spread. Wake Forest has traditionally been a dangerous underdog under Jim Grobe. In his tenure the Demon Deacons are 40-27-2 ATS getting points. Wake is off a confidence building 28-27 win last week over a very good North Carolina squad. This is a team that takes care of the football which makes them a dangerous underdog. The last decade the Deacs have a +76 turnover advantage. It's rare for a team to get this many points when not expected to lose the turnover battle. Last year they had a +5 advantage over these very same Seminoles. It's in Florida States nature the last few years to make mistakes at critical junctures. After facing two FCS opponents they are not ready to beat up on a team of Wakes caliber. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-08-12 | Kent State v. Kentucky -6.5 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
Kent State at Kentucky
All right, this line move is getting a bit ridiculous. We made the Wildcats a 10 point favorite in this game and now with the news of Kentucky RB Williams not playing the line has dropped to 6 1/2. The Wildcats are deep at the running back position. Kentucky looked bad on National TV last week and we knew money would come in against them. But now that the line has crossed over the key number of 7 it's time to step in with an SEC home team against a MAC road squad. Kentucky is simplifying the defense this week after being beaten badly by a talented Louisville team last Sunday. We expect a much better effort out of the Wildcats here. Kentucky is not a good SEC team by any means but they are still head and shoulders above a middling MAC squad. Taking a look at how Kentucky does at home against non-SEC opponents points us in that direction when not facing in-state rival Louisville. How bout wins by 14 over Central Michigan, 35 over Western Kentucky, 37 over Akron, 23 over Louisiana Monroe, 6 over Middle Tennessee State, 38 over Western Kentucky and 36 over these Kent State Golden Flashes. That's the last five seasons at home against similar competition to the team the Wildcats will face on Saturday. Kent State hasn't had a winning season since 2001. The last 20 years they can boast a 61-166-1 record. Last week the scoreboard showed an impressive 41-21 victory over FCS ranked Towson. What the scoreboard doesn't show is that Kent State had a +6 turnover advantage. It's widely known that a turnover is worth roughly 4 points. That means the Golden Flashes benefited from an additional 24 points. That doesn't make their 20 point victory nearly as impressive. Lucky for us most sports bettors don't watch these small conference games or break apart the box score. We take advantage of that here. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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09-08-12 | Akron v. Florida International OVER 53.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 6 m | Show |
379 Akron at Florida International
The Zips have a new coaching staff led by Terry Bowden who came to fame at Auburn and being the son of Bobby Bowden. The rotund coach wants to speed up the game and keep the ball in the air. They did just that against Central Florida producing 81 plays while the Zips averaged just 66 snaps a year ago. New signal caller Dalton Williams looks to be a major upgrade at the quarterback position from a year ago as Clayton Moore was a fill-in at best behind center. The numbers won't show it because of many dropped passes but Williams really impressed in his first game at Akron. Defensively the Zips are very small along the line and Central Florida just handed the ball off with great success. Akron allowed 4.9 yards per carry a season ago and the Knights pounded the Zips for 4.5 ypc last week. We look for more of the same from a Florida International team that ran the ball for 4.0 and 4.7 ypc the last two seasons. Mario Cristobal has done a great job at Florida International since taking over an 0-12 team in 2007. Last year the Panthers went 8-5 and participated in a bowl game. His team took a major jump defensively a year ago going from 27.3 ppg allowed to 19.5. Despite returning 10 starters to that side of the field they are bound for some regression. Akron has been a sieve defensively on the road as of late allowing 68, 51, 35, 31, 59, 42, 37, 30 and 38 points the last nine away from home. In fact, the Zips have permitted 27 points or more in 15 straight road games. Last year FIU won 27-17 in Akron but the Zips have a far more dynamic offense this year, and the plays will be coming fast and furious. More plays equal more scoring opportunities and we want to get ahead of the crowd early as we expect Akron's totals to skyrocket. PLAY OVER |
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09-08-12 | Purdue +14.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 27 m | Show |
335 Purdue at Notre Dame
Everything we have read coming out of West Lafayette this year has been a positive. At the Big 10 media day coach Hope went out of his way to spread the word on how much he liked this 2012 Purdue squad. The team has two experienced signal callers and the offense returns 8 starters. Last week the Boilermakers dominated a nationally ranked FCS team as they beat Eastern Kentucky 48-6. That was done despite losing the turnover battle. The Irish are coming off a game in Ireland where 35,000 Notre Dame faithful made the trip. They were rewarded with a 50-10 win over Navy. While the Irish looked impressive keep in mind they had all off-season to prepare for the Navy option. That's a huge edge that cannot be ignored. Now they must travel all the way back to South Bend to play another game just 7 days later. Notre Dame has beaten Purdue four straight years including a 28 point win last season. With Michigan State on deck it's quite possible the Irish will overlook the Boilermakers. Notre Dame has lost 4 of the last 7 games against Michigan State and they know a win over the Spartans will put them back on the map after not winning more than 8 games in any season since 2006. The Irish haven't posted a winning home spread mark since 2002. As a home favorite they stand just 15-28-2 the last 9 seasons. In the last 5 years Notre Dame is 23-26 straight up against BCS automatic qualifying entrants. They are not deserving of being this type of favorite against a quality Big 10 opponent. PLAY PURDUE |
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09-08-12 | Maryland +10 v. Temple | 36-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
355 Maryland at Temple
Maryland wasn't a very good team last year and yet they were installed as an 8 1/2 point home favorite over these Owls. They had just taken West Virginia to the wire in a 37-31 defeat knowing they had beaten Temple the last 6 times they had played them. As expected Maryland took Temple for granted and the result was an ugly 38-7 Owls victory. This game is being played with totally different circumstances. Maryland lost projected starting QB CL Brown early on and now Perry Hills has taken over behind center. While Hills isn't a highly touted signal caller he can't be much worse than what the quarterback numbers produced last year for the Terps. How bout a 14 to 16 touchdown to interception ratio. Hills produced 67% completions and a 6.0 yppa last week in his first college start. While much will be made about the 7-6 victory over FCS foe William & Mary, keep in mind that the Tribe are a ranked team that has a lot of FBS caliber talent. The Terrapins had a -2 turnover differential in that game and turnovers are worth roughly 4 points each. So the final score wasn't indicative of the way the game was played. Temple on the other hand played an unranked Villanova squad who has really taken a step back from their 2009 FCS Championship. The Owls beat them last year 42-7 and won 41-10 on Saturday. In that game they had a +2 turnover advantage and were actually out gained on the day. They managed just 15 first downs and the Wildcats averaged more yards per passing attempt. Temple is stepping up in class this year as they enter the Big East Conference. They no longer face an overwhelmed MAC schedule where the Owls could just sit back and run the ball down the throats of the smaller defenses. Maryland really took a step back defensively last year allowing a whopping 12.1 more points per game than the season before. With 9 returning starters to that unit along with expected regression we look for Maryland to get back to playing sound defensive football. They did so last week holding William & Mary to only six points, we feel they are an undervalued squad based on last weeks results. PLAY MARYLAND |
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09-01-12 | Rutgers -19.5 v. Tulane | 24-12 | Loss | -110 | 246 h 38 m | Show | |
195 Rutgers at Tulane
It's not often that we will look to back a new coach laying this type of number on the road, but we will make an exception here. Rutgers has built itself into a very good football program as Greg Schiano left the situation in great shape. Coming off a 9-4 season and returning 15 starters the Scarlet Knights shouldn't miss a beat under Kyle Flood, a former assistant here since 2007. In a study we did a couple years ago we found new head coaches perform better when on the road as opposed to being at home for their first game of the season. The pressure of winning in front of the home fans seemed to hurt these teams against the spread. With Rutgers having two experienced signal callers and starting running back Jawan Jamison returning, we look for the Knights to build on the 26.4 ppg scored of a season ago. Defensively Rutgers is stacked, coming off a Top 10 ranked season in which they permitted just 18.3 ppg. With eight returning starters to that side of the ball, including all-american candidate Khasseem Greene, it will be very tough for their opening opponent to crash the end zone. Tulane is welcoming a new coach themselves this year as Curtis Johnson takes over for the Bob Toledo/Mark Hudson 2011 duo. The Green Wave produced a 15-46 record the last five years with ten of those wins coming against FBS competition. Johnson spent the last six years in the NFL and this is his first head coaching job. Tulane has been outscored on average by margins of 16.4, 12.3, 20.6 and 17.8 the last four seasons, and that was against Conference USA and lesser competition. The Green Wave have been hit hard with injuries as they will be missing three projected starters in this contest. The most damaging loss comes from the defensive side of the ball as Trent Mackey who had over twice as many tackles as anyone else of the team has been suspended. He was the preseason defensive player of the year in Conference USA. The team will also be without starting center Zach Morgan, a senior and team leader of the offense. Coming off a 2-11 season the Green Wave are in for another long year. The offense is weak in a conference that doesn't play a lot of defense. The stop unit has permitted over 31 points per game in each of the last seven seasons. Now they lose by far their best defensive player for armed robbery. Not the type of start the ex-New Orleans Saints WR coach was looking for. We expect this line to continue to climb. PLAY RUTGERS |
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09-01-12 | Florida International v. Duke -4 | 26-46 | Win | 100 | 395 h 31 m | Show | |
206 Florida International at Duke
The Panthers have continually gotten better under Mario Cristobal even going bowling the last two years under his leadership. He has turned around a team that went winless before his arrival in 2007. But as good as his teams have been they are just 2-6 SU playing out of conference games on the road, with each of the losses coming by 7 points or more. The two wins were a 24-17 victory at Louisville and a 27-17 win at Akron, both coming last year. Louisville had arch rival Kentucky on deck, so they clearly overlooked the Panthers. Akron went on to post their second consecutive 1-11 record. FIU brings back an impressive 17 returning starters but the one player that won't be returning was the most important, T.Y. Hilton, the third round draft choice of the Indianapolis Colts. Hilton had 498 more receiving yards that anyone else on the team and he basically dominated on the special teams. His loss is huge as players from the Sun Belt Conference just don't become third round NFL draftees. Like FIU Duke returns 17 starters from a year ago including the top receiver, rusher and quarterback. They beat Florida International last year 31-27 on the road as a 4 point underdog. A better FIU team than the one they will face here. Not only are they bringing back a solid amount of starters but coach Cutcliffe says the team has exceptional depth all around. Last year Duke trailed the Panthers for most of the game, yet they held on for the victory. For a team that has lost nine games by 7 or less points the last two seasons that had to build up their confidence for this rematch. We have this Duke team as a real play-on squad early in the season. We wouldn't be surprised if this line goes to 5 1/2 by game day. PLAY DUKE |
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09-01-12 | Miami (Fla) v. Boston College -1 | 41-32 | Loss | -110 | 391 h 14 m | Show | |
176 Miami Florida at Boston College
Boston College is coming off their first non-bowl season in 12 years, but they return 17 starters including QB Chase Rettig. This is a team that suffered significant injuries a season ago and started the year losing to Northwestern, Central Florida and Duke. But they turned around and won 4 of their next 9 games including upsetting Maryland, NC State and Miami Florida. They also took Notre Dame to the wire as a 24 1/2 point underdog in a 16-14 loss in their 11th game of the season. The Eagles didn't quit under Frank Spaziani and that bodes well for this team in 2012. The defense losses an outstanding player in LB Luke Kuechly, but the team is well stocked at linebacker and they can only get better at getting to the passer as the Eagles tallied just 11 sacks all last season. Boston College has beaten the Hurricanes each of the last two meetings including a 24-17 victory as a 13 1/2 point underdog in the 2011 finale. Miami has had an interesting off season with an NCAA probe and the loss of a 1300 yard rusher and starting quarterback, along with the top two receivers. The team returns just 10 starters from a year ago while losing their top tackler as well. Miami is still thought of as an excellent program in the minds of many but the Hurricanes have posted a 34-29 record the past five seasons. Al Golden is a very good coach but this is a program that doesn't draw the same recruits as in their heyday. The Hurricanes will likely start a lot of underclassmen this year and they don't have the talent at the skill positions. According to our power ratings Miami will take a major step back this season, coming off a 6-6 mark a year ago. This line is currently sitting at -1 and we wouldn't be surprised if this game closes Boston College by 2 1/2 or 3. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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09-01-12 | Troy -5.5 v. UAB | 39-29 | Win | 100 | 388 h 43 m | Show | |
203 Troy at UAB
The Troy Trojans according to my records suffered quite possibly the most attrition in the nation from injuries last year. Three projected starters went down early and six key backups soon followed. For a team that returned just 13 starters from the prior season the results were disastrous. But the good news it that the Trojans were able to build up their depth because of the injuries, and the team returns 15 starters this year including starting QB Corey Robinson. Until last season's disaster Troy produced ATS years of 7-5-1, 8-3 and 7-5 the last three times they returned their starting quarterback. This year they return 9 offensive starters and in those three seasons they had just 7, 5 and 7 returning offensively. After averaging over 30 points for four straight seasons we expect this team to have a vast improvement offensively. The last two years these two teams have played games decided by a single point, so you know Larry Blakeney will not overlook the Blazers. Last years 3-9 mark was the worst season in his 21 year coaching history. UAB has a new coach this year as Garrick McGee takes over for Neil Callaway who produced a 18-42 record in his five year stint. McGee has a history as an offensive coordinator and he's looking to turn around a scoring unit that hasn't produced 28 ppg in any season the last seven years. On the flip side the Blazers have permitted 31 points or more in five straight seasons. With just four starters returning to that stop unit it could get even worse for the Blazers. Keep in mind they had at least 7 defensive starters returning the last four years. The defense permitted 38, 31, 35, 56 and 59 points the final five games last season. Despite the two nail biters the last couple meetings these teams have different pedigrees. UAB hasn't had a winning season since 2004 and they bring in a new head coach, two new coordinators and a new system. Troy is a deep team with 47 upperclassmen looking to put last season's rare losing year in the past. Troy had previously won eight games or more in five straight seasons. After suffering crippling injuries a season ago we look for Troy to make a statement here. It wouldn't surprise us to see the Trojans go off at a 7 point favorite. PLAY TROY |
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09-01-12 | Northwestern -1 v. Syracuse | 42-41 | Push | 0 | 358 h 25 m | Show | |
163 Northwestern at Syracuse
The good news for Northwestern backers is that they have gone to four straight bowl games, the bad news is they haven't won a bowl game since 1948. But off a disappointing 6-7 season a year ago the confidence is high in Evanston. The team may be overlooked in many circles with just 10 returning starters, but the team returns it's top rusher and tackler. The Wildcats have been a tough team to figure out the last few years winning when they have been counted out and losing when they should cruise to victory. One major positive has been their play on the road under Pat Fitzgerald. This team has gone 14-8 straight up on the highway the past four seasons, including wins at Nebraska, Iowa twice and Michigan. Dan Persa is gone but Kain Colter performed well when Persa was out last year. Northwestern has had solid quarterbacking the last few years with Persa and Mike Kafka, and Fitzgerald said Colter is further along in his junior year than either of them. Despite the lack of returning starters this is a team that can sneak up on anybody. Syracuse has had just one winning year in the last decade as this once proud program has taken a major step backwards. Offensively the 24.2 ppg scored last year was the highest for this club in the last seven seasons. Syracuse returns 12 starters from a year ago. The offense has been struggling in practice and All-Conference offensive lineman Justin Pugh will miss this opening game with an injury. So we can't expect much offensive output in this contest. The defense looks to be the strength of this team but keep in mind Syracuse had allowed less than 24 ppg just once in the last seven years, they can be scored upon. In fact, the Orangemen permitted 27 points or more to the last five teams they faced to close out last season, and Northwestern has scored 34 and 30 the past two meetings. The Carrier Dome has always been considered a tough place to play, but the Orangemen are just 17-29 straight up here the last seven years. In the last 11 games played at this site Syracuse has just a single win by more than seven points. That came as a 14 point home dog to West Virginia last year, which could have been the biggest shocker of the season in a 49-23 Orangemen win. Northwestern is the better team and the line is under a field goal. That may not be the case by game day. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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01-03-12 | Michigan v. Virginia Tech +3 | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
Michigan & Virginia Tech at New Orleans
The Wolverines have had a very easy schedule this season with the two toughest games being hosting Notre Dame and at Michigan State. Michigan needed a tremendous late game comeback to beat the Irish by 4 and they were never in the game against in-state rival Michigan State losing 28-14. Every other team they played was bad (Eastern Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois etc.) or not up to previous standards (Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State etc.). There has been a great deal of talk about Virginia Tech's easy opponents but Michigan fared well against a weak schedule themselves. Michigan is 7-12 ATS away from home the past four seasons including 1-6 ATS as away favorites. This is one of the most overrated clubs entering bowl action and they will be exposed here. While many teams have a complaint about their bowl seeding the Hokies are extremely fortunate to be in a BCS Bowl. It's been all over the press and I'm sure Frank Beamer has let his players know that the majority of the country thinks his team is undeserving of being here. So much so that this line has moved a full two points since the opening number. After getting beaten soundly for the second time by Clemson this is a team coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. This is the 19th straight year that Virginia Tech has been bowling and this coaching staff knows how to prepare a team. The Hokies have been an underdog just once the last two seasons and we expect this team to take advantage of an overrated Michigan squad. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-02-12 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
Wisconsin & Oregon at Pasadena
The Big 10 Conference is considered a big bruising collection which lacks team speed. That may have been the case in the past but that's no longer. These teams have emphasized speed the last few seasons expanding their recruiting to the south and west. The Wisconsin team has been working the hurry up offense in practice trying to replicate the pace and speed of the Ducks. The Badgers have been one of the strongest defensive teams in the country with little fanfare. They have held all but two opponents to 17 points or less all season. Wisconsin is also a team that has been favored by a touchdown or more in every game this season and are now an underdog for the first time all season. The last four times Wisconsin took points they covered the number with the only straight up loss coming by 2 points. Oregon is a highly athletic offense but they can be beaten with extra time to prepare. The Ducks lost straight up and against the spread the last two bowl games and they were beaten in the opener this year when LSU had extra time to prepare. As a whole no league has fared worse this bowl season than the PAC 12 which has failed to cover the number by a combined 27 1/2 points thus far with the lone win coming by Utah in overtime. In what we expect to be a lower scoring game than projected we look for the Badger defense to be the difference maker. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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12-31-11 | Utah +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Utah at Georgia Tech
Paul Johnson has had a great deal of success in his four years in Atlanta. His option offense is tough to get ready for with only a week of preparation. But with extra time to prepare opponents have had a lot of success against him. In his first three seasons at Georgia Tech his offenses averaged 26.0, 33.8 and 24.4 points heading into bowl season. In the bowl games the Yellow Jackets were held to 7, 14 and 3 points, losing to the spread by a combined 59 1/2 points. Things could be even worse for Georgia Tech this season. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is very familiar with this offense considering he had to face Air Force every year in the Mountain West Conference. The last five years his teams have held Air Force to 23, 16, 23, 20 and 14 points. Winning 4 of those 5 games in straight up fashion. Now in the PAC 12 his team plays a higher quality opponent on a weekly basis and he will have his team fully prepared for Georgia Tech. Since coming to Salt Lake City Whittingham is 5-2 ATS in bowl action off a rare straight up loss last year to Boise State. That defeat broke a nine game straight up winning streak for the Utes in the bowls. A new streak starts on Saturday. PLAY UTAH |
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12-31-11 | Texas A&M v. Northwestern +10 | 33-22 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
Texas A&M & Northwestern at Houston
A&M is a disappointing 3-8 as a favorite this year in what has to be considered a poor season for the Aggies. Head coach Mike Sherman has been fired and the assistant coaches are scrambling in employment for the future. A&M has a history of failure at this time of year, failing to cover their last five bowl games by a total of 101 1/2 points, losing outright each game. Coming into this bowl season Big 12 teams are 13-26 ATS in the postseason the past five years. The Aggies were 0-5 ATS away from College Station this season. Northwestern is 10-3 ATS catching points on the road the past four seasons. This is a team that we want no part of when laying points, but they are an excellent team in the underdog role. Since Pat Fitzgerald took over the program the Wildcats are a perfect 3-0 ATS in bowl action. They are 0-3 straight up losing two games in overtime, but this is the season they grab the outright victory. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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12-30-11 | Iowa +14 v. Oklahoma | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Iowa State & Oklahoma at Tempe
The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in bowl action since Kirk Ferentz took over in Iowa City. Only once were they beaten by more than 7 points and that was way back in 2002. They are 6-1 ATS catching points in the bowls. Off a mediocre 7-5 regular season this is actually a reward for the 30 Hawkeye seniors. Starting running back Marcus Coker has been suspended but the Hawkeyes recruit talented rushers who just need to a chance. One year ago Coker was thrust into the same scenario and he took advantage of it. Oklahoma is a team used to playing in much more prestigious bowl games than one before the new year. They at one time were one of the top ranked teams in the country before losing extremely talented skill position players. Now instead of playing in a BCS Bowl they are forced to go to Tempe and face a middle of the road Big 10 squad. In 13 years in Norman Bob Stoops is 4-8 ATS in bowl action. As a favorite the Sooners are 1-6 ATS including four outright losses. Oklahoma has the superior talent in this game but what is their motivation? The last 11 years they played against Top 25 opposition in every bowl game, now they take on the 7-5 Hawkeyes. The Sooners are coming off a rare bowl win as they beat UConn last year 48-20 as a 14 1/2 point favorite. We can't expect the same enthusiasm this year from a program that had much higher preseason expectations. PLAY IOWA |
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12-29-11 | Washington +9.5 v. Baylor | Top | 56-67 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
Washington & Baylor at San Antonio
The venue slightly favors the in-state Bears but this line in our opinion is way overpriced. Baylor is a high scoring team with the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback. They are bound to be overvalued here. We all know about the Heisman jinx but what is being overlooked is how bad this Baylor defense is. Every FBS opponent they faced this season put up at least 24 points against them and that includes Rice and Kansas. In games away from Waco the Bears went 1-4 ATS with a one point win at Kansas and blowout losses at Texas A&M by 27 and Oklahoma State by 35. Since Art Briles took over the program this team is 6-17 ATS away from home. There were only 11 teams in the FBS this season that had winning spread records in games they lost the turnover battle, Washington was one of those teams. Squads able to cover spreads with a turnover disadvantage are teams we want to back. While Robert Griffin III was roaming the country celebrating his player of the year award Steve Sarkisian and his troops were home preparing for the Bears. Washington won't be intimidated by this Baylor offense as they faced Stanford, Oregon and USC in conference play. The PAC 12 has fared much better than the Big 12 the last five seasons in bowl play, and we look for that trend to continue. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-26-11 | North Carolina +6 v. Missouri | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
North Carolina & Missouri at Shreveport
We're a bit surprised about the line move here as we can't see the coaching change at North Carolina being a negative. Right before the season Butch Davis was fired and Everett Withers was promoted on an interim basis. While he was told he would be considered for the position nobody outside the organization actually thought he would be retained. Now with Larry Fedora coming in and Withers headed to Ohio state as a co-defensive coordinator, the players have said they are dedicating this game to their outgoing coach. Based on play on the field we projected this line to be much lower. North Carolina has one of the strongest run defenses in the nation which goes head to head against the Missouri offensive strength. The last four opponents scored 21, 24, 13 and 24 points against the Tar Heels and 3 of those 4 opponents are bowling this season. With a win here North Carolina posts it's fourth straight eight win season which is a major goal for the outgoing seniors. The Big 12 has posted a 13-26 bowl spread record the past five seasons. A major reason is the lack of defense in conference play which is why Kansas State had so much success this season. Missouri has been hit and miss defensively but overall they have been solid. Offensively they have struggled when stepping up in class against solid stop units. Missouri hasn't cashed a bowl game since 2008 and they lost the last two straight up by combined scores of 62-37, they were favorites in both games. Missouri suffered a major blow when RB Henry Josey went down late in the season and they just don't have enough options to distance themselves against this tough North Carolina defense. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-24-11 | Nevada +7.5 v. Southern Mississippi | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Nevada & Southern Miss at Honolulu
Now that the line has surpassed the touchdown margin it's time to step in on the Wolf Pack of Nevada. Just 1-5 ATS in bowl action the Wolf Pack are being undervalued in our minds in a very winnable game for Nevada. They are very familiar with the surroundings having played in the Hawaii Bowl 2 of the last 6 seasons. They also have traveled to Hawaii every other year in WAC play. Even though they have struggled ATS in bowl action this is by far their biggest underdog spread. They were a 3 1/2 point dog against Miami Florida in 2006 and lost that game by a single point. Nevada has only two losses by more than four points all season and those defeats were to Oregon and Boise State, two teams head and shoulders better than either of these participants. In fact, Nevada has stayed within this current spread in 23 of their last 25 games. Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at North Carolina yet he will remain here as the head man for the bowl game. Fedora selected the Hawaii Bowl as a reward for his players before he decided to abandon ship and head to North Carolina. His coaching this game is a negative for this program as the players already know who the new coach will be and they don't need to listen to the person who abandoned them. Word out of Hattiesburg is the team didn't necessarily want to go to this location. In fact, the Southern Miss program will actually lose money because of all the travel costs. Much has been made about the lack of ticket sales from the Wolf pack fans. But with comps there will actually be more Nevada fans here than Southern Miss faithful. And you know the local fans will support the WAC against Conference USA. Southern Miss was a good team this season that played an extremely easy schedule. The only quality opposition they faced were Louisiana Tech, Virginia and Houston. We agree they should be a slight favorite here but nothing close to this current spread of over a touchdown. In the last four years the Golden Eagles haven't won their bowl game by more than 3 points and that victory came in overtime against Troy in 2008. This is not the type of team we want laying points, especially in these circumstances. PLAY NEVADA |
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12-17-11 | Utah State -2 v. Ohio | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 60 m | Show | |
Utah State & Ohio U at Boise, ID
This s a huge game for the Aggies who haven't been bowling since 1997. It's at a location in which they have played every other year until the Broncos of Boise State bolted to the Mountain West Conference this season. In our estimation that's a huge advantage because of the blue Smurf Turf here in Boise. Utah State ended their season here last year so the players are well aware of what the strange colors do to your depth perception. Ohio U on the other hand has never played on this field. WAC teams have posted a marginal 10-11 spread record in bowls the past five years while the MAC is an FBS worst 5-15-1 ATS during the same period. Utah State has won three straight games away from home with respectable losses by 3 at BYU and 4 at Auburn. This is a team that has gone 21-12 ATS away from home the last five seasons with a 12-11 straight up mark on the road the last four years. Ohio U had the MAC Championship all but sewn up but let Northern Illinois come from way back in the fourth quarter to beat the Bobcats in a last second field goal. That was a crushing defeat for a team with higher hopes than playing in Idaho on the opening bowl weekend. In the Frank Solich era in Athens the Bobcats have been good but the season has always ended in disappointment. They have gone bowling three times since the former Nebraska head coach arrived and they are still seeking their first victory. They have been outscored in those games 97-45 failing to beat the spread by a combined 47 points. We want no part of the Bobcats here in a likely win to cover situation. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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12-17-11 | Temple v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
201/202 Temple & Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl
The Owls struggled a bit when stepping up in class this season losing to fellow bowl entrants Penn State, Toledo and Ohio U, posting a 1-2 spread mark in the process. They also lost at Bowling Green a place where the Wyoming Cowboys won earlier this year. Temple feasted on the weaklings of the MAC and a non-conference slate of victories over Villanova, Maryland and Army didn't help their resume. Over the last 5 years MAC teams have been overrated in the bowls with a 5-15-1 spread mark including a 30-21 non-covering loss for the Owls against UCLA in the 2009 Eagle Bank Bowl. Wyoming finished the regular season with the same 8-4 record as the Owls. They too struggled when stepping up in class with losses to Nebraska, Utah State, TCU and Boise State, all bowl participants this year. They did beat two other bowl entrants with wins over San Diego State and Air Force, both on the road. Therefore we feel the Cowboys are the more tested team. Wyoming played in this same bowl in 2009 and upset Fresno State 35-28 as a double digit underdog in double overtime. Mountain West Conference teams have posted a 14-10 spread record in bowl action the past five seasons. The MAC has struggled outside of conference action and there isn't a single team in this conference we would feel comfortable laying a touchdown with in the post season. Wyoming has been a strong road team with a 12-6 ATS mark away from Laramie under Dave Christensen. They get our money here. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-03-11 | Iowa State v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 116 h 8 m | Show |
313/314 Iowa State at Kansas State
The Cyclones have looked good as of late beating Oklahoma State and covering last week against Oklahoma. But when we look closer we see that Iowa State is getting a little too much credit for their recent success. This is a team with a long injury list and they had a bye before facing the Oklahoma schools. Oklahoma State clearly overlooked the Cyclones with in-state rival Oklahoma on deck and Iowa State had a rare nationally televised home game. Last week winds of up to 40 mph hurt the Oklahoma passing game and Iowa State only scored because of a snap that flew over the punters head. The Cyclones were held to a season low in yardage against an Oklahoma team that had a clear lookahead to Oklahoma State and the Big 12 Championship. After playing the two best teams in the conference in back to back weeks we can't expect a supreme effort from the Cyclones here on Saturday. Kansas State had a bye last week which sets them up for a big performance here. They are actually still alive for a BCS bid and are aiming for their first ten win season since 2003. The Wildcats have struggled against the pure passing offenses of Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but the Cyclones don't have that kind of ability in the passing game. Kansas State is also a team who doesn't turn the ball over as they haven't lost the turnover battle since opening week against Eastern Kentucky. In fact, since Bill Snyder returned to the sideline three years ago the Wildcats are plus 26 in turnover margin. Iowa State on the other hand has only won the turnover battle in two games all season. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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12-03-11 | Southern Mississippi +14.5 v. Houston | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
339/340 Southern Miss at Houston
The Conference USA Championship will be decided early Saturday when the Golden Eagles travel to Houston to play the Cougars. This is a rare pointspread range for Larry Fedora and Southern Miss as they have lost just once on the road the past four years by more than this spread, that was at South Carolina last season. Recent series history has produced lines of 3 1/2, 6 1/2, 2 and 2 points. In the last 11 meetings in this series the biggest loss for the Golden Eagles was by 7 points. Southern Miss was favored in all but two games this year, at Virginia as a 3 point dog and at Navy in a pick 'em game. Southern Miss won both those contests by 30-24 and 63-35 scores. This is a battle tested program which has produced winning records every season since 1993. Houston has had an extremely easy schedule this season with the best teams played being UCLA and Louisiana Tech. The Bruins are a 32 point underdog in their conference championship game and the Bulldogs play in the WAC. Houston beat UCLA at home 38-34 and won at Louisiana Tech 35-34. High scoring offensive teams always become a public darling and by some ticket counts upwards of 90% of the betting public is on the Cougars. With a possible BCS Bowl in their future Houston is the most overrated team playing for a major bowl game. We will take the points with a sound Southern Miss squad. Keep in mind that just two weeks ago Houston gave SMU 20 at this site which makes this line even more absurd. PLAY SOUTHERN MISS |
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12-02-11 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
305/306 Northern Illinois & Ohio U
Both of these teams have played in front of national television audiences each of the last four weeks. The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Bobcats have put up the same 4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS record. Northern Illinois wins with offense, Ohio U wins with defense. The Huskies put up impressive offensive numbers against the likes of Toledo, Bowling Green and Ball State but when they faced a decent defense last week against Eastern Michigan they were held to just 18 points. When you look over the Northern Illinois schedule you see that it's loaded with bad defensive football teams. Even in non-conference play they faced the likes of Army, Kansas and Cal Poly. Against the only two quality stop units they faced the Huskies scored 7 against Wisconsin and 18 against Eastern Michigan. The casual fan loves high scoring offenses so you know what team will be bet by the general public. Since Frank Solich has been in Athens the Bobcats have faced the Huskies twice, in 2009 in a pick 'em game and in 2006 when Northern Illinois was a 16 1/2 point favorite. Ohio U won both of those games by 38-31 and 35-23 scores, covering the posted number by a combined 35 1/2 points. Last week Ohio U had nothing to play for in a 21-14 go through the motions game against Miami Ohio. This is a team that has permitted more than 28 points just three times all season. The quarterbacking has been outstanding with just one game of over a single interception and the Bobcats for the most part have stayed under the radar because they are not a flashy high scoring outfit. Since 2006 the Bobcats are 11-5 as a conference underdog. Ohio U has yet to win a conference championship under Solich and this is the year they accomplish that goal. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-01-11 | West Virginia -1 v. South Florida | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show | |
West Virginia at South Florida
The Mountaineers need a victory here and a Cincinnati win on Saturday to win the conference and grab a BCS Bowl. South Florida on the other hand needs a win here in order to become bowl eligible. West Virginia is 3-1 straight up on the road this season with impressive wins at Rutgers and Cincinnati. That Bearcat victory saved their season after a tough 38-35 loss to Louisville looked to end their conference championship hopes. But since that time they edged out Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to put the ball back in their own court. West Virginia has been a strong road team over the years posting a 35-16 straight up mark since 2002. They beat the Bulls last year at home 20-6 and have held South Florida to 16.8 points per game the last six meetings. South Florida has had a very disappointing season after five straight years of eight win or better campaigns. The offense has been sporadic with 4 of 11 games producing 17 points or less. Those four games of poor offensive output came in their last seven contests. BJ Daniels has been in and out of the lineup which hasn't helped matters but we expect him to make an appearance here. Regardless of the quarterback the Bulls have severe offensive limitations. This is a team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games in straight up fashion. They are 3-3 straight up at home after going 4-3 straight up in Raymond James Stadium a year ago. Skip Holtz has traditionally been a very good underdog but with the spread in this game hovering around the one point mark is that really enough to want to back this disappointing Bulls squad? We think not as the Mountaineers have shown more on a consistent basis. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-26-11 | Clemson +4 v. South Carolina | 13-34 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
157/158 Clemson at South Carolina
The Clemson Tigers have fallen badly in the betting markets, and while they aren't nearly as strong as first believed this is still a very good football team. In fact, it's gotten to the point for the first time all season the Tigers are underrated. Clemson had nothing to play for last week at NC State and the results showed in a 37-13 loss. With in-state rival South Carolina and the ACC Championship on deck the Tigers went through the motions. But now Clemson will be fully focused as they take on the Gamecocks with double revenge. Now on an 11-3 spread run as road underdogs the Tigers provide us with a strong value play on Saturday. South Carolina has had an extremely easy schedule this season. They did not have to face either Alabama or LSU and took on Tennessee and Florida teams having down years. Their only quality win on the season was against Georgia in a 45-42 shootout in which either team could have won. The Gamecocks lost to Auburn and Arkansas failing to cover the number by a combined 24 1/2 points. The South Carolina defense is solid as always but this offense leaves much to be desired. They scored 13 vs Auburn, 14 against Mississippi State, 14 vs Tennessee and 17 against Florida. The Tigers have a better offense than any of those teams. Simply put South Carolina doesn't have the ability to match points with Clemson and for the first time in weeks the Tigers have something to play for. PLAY CLEMSON |
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11-26-11 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Virginia | 38-0 | Win | 100 | 46 h 51 m | Show | |
175/176 Virginia Tech at Virginia
Now that the line has dropped all week it's time to back the better team in a series they have dominated. The Hokies are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in this series including wins the last two seasons by 30 and 29 point margins. Virginia Tech excels in the road favorite role posting a 16-7-1 mark. The last three visits to Charlottesville ended with 29, 12 and 38 point victories for the Hokies. Virginia Tech owns the far more talented players and the team knows how to win close games. In contests decided by 7 points or less Virginia Tech has won 5 straight games. Virginia has feasted on the likes of William & Mary, Indiana, Idaho, Maryland and Duke. They only have three quality wins all year, a 3 point home victory over Georgia Tech, a 7 point win at Miami Florida and a 1 point win last week at Florida State. That win over the Seminoles last week was a sandwich game for Florida State, off Miami Florida and with Florida on deck. Virginia is on a 3-8 spread run as home dogs. The Hokies are the right side here. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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11-26-11 | Cincinnati -2 v. Syracuse | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
145/146 Cincinnati at Syracuse
Two overreactions in this game put us in firing range on the small road favorite. First of all is the quarterback situation for the Bearcats. Zach Collaros was injured before last week and his replacement Munchie Legaux looked bad in his first start. But word out of Cincinnati is that Legaux has the body type and the ability to have success in this offense. His bad opening performance has led bettors to the window to grab the points with the home underdog Orangemen. The second overreaction is that Syracuse needs to win either here or next week at Pittsburgh in order to become bowl eligible. As we have talked about in the past, teams in a must win situation are there for a reason, they just aren't that good in the first place. Cincinnati has beaten the Orangemen the last three visits to the Carrier Dome, and they are looking to avenge a 31-7 shocking home loss a year ago. Now on a 10-6 spread run in the role of road favorite we expect a bounce back game from the Bearcats. Syracuse is 6-13 as home underdogs and their defense is a major step down from the unit Legaux faced last week at Rutgers. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-25-11 | UTEP v. Central Florida -9.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
135/136 UTEP at Central Florida
This line represents the typical late season need situation which is almost always an overreaction. UTEP needs a victory here to become bowl eligible, which is to say that they haven't been a very good team all season. UTEP owns five victories on the season against a who's who of bad football teams. Stony Brook, New Mexico State, Tulane, Colorado State and likely their most impressive win over East Carolina, a game they failed to cover. That's not the type of resume that bowl organizers smile upon. Because of their need and the disappointing season of Central Florida we have a great deal of line value here. UCF has lost seven games this season, 6 of those coming by 7 points or less. This is a team stepping way down in class this week after facing the likes of East Carolina, Southern Miss and Tulsa the last three games. As a home favorite the Knights are 3-2 this year and 11-5 the past three years. Off three straight losses this is a hungry squad who would like nothing better than to end the season for the Miners. This is a very young club with a huge upside for the future, they won't go down without a fight here. Just three weeks ago this team gave 2 points to Tulsa, now they are laying just north of a touchdown more to UTEP, a team with one quality victory all year. We take full advantage of this overreaction in the betting marketplace with a very capable home favorite. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-25-11 | Arkansas v. LSU OVER 52 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
129/130 Arkansas at LSU
This is a huge game in not only the SEC but on a national level. Since Bobby Petrino has been at Arkansas he has had great offensive success against some pretty good LSU defenses, putting up 31, 30 and 31 points. The Razorbacks are in terrific offensive form scoring 44, 49 and 44 points the last three weeks. Doing so against the stiff defensive talent of Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina. In fact, Arkansas has put up 26 points or more in 18 of their last 19 games. The last five meetings in this series have produced point totals of 54, 63, 61, 98 and 57, all higher than the Vegas line in this match-up. LSU has put up 35 points or more in all but two games all season, against Alabama and Mississippi State. While Arkansas can put points up on just about anybody this Razorback defense has some problems. Both teams should be able to trade points here as Arkansas has the passing game and team speed to stretch the field against the Tigers. We look for a high scoring contest in a game where neither team will be looking to milk the clock. PLAY OVER |
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11-22-11 | Miami (OH) +7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
Miami Ohio at Ohio U
This line was made strictly off of power ratings and doesn't take into effect that the Bobcats have already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Ohio U has no extra motivation in this game except to keep their key personnel healthy for their biggest game of the season. Last time out Ohio U used a late minute drive to surpass Bowling Green and clinch the victory as well as a spot in the big game. That was last Wednesday, so they have less than a full week to prepare for the Redhawks. Ohio U is already 0-3 ATS as a conference home favorite this year and it wouldn't be surprising if they are not fully attentive in practice this week. Miami has had a disappointing season under first year coach Don Treadwell, but they are playing much better ball the second half of the season. They are 4-3 straight up down the stretch with two of the losses coming by exactly a field goal. This game has extra meaning for the 31 Miami seniors as they have never beaten Ohio U in their playing careers. The Redhawks have dropped the last 5 meetings in this series, including an embarrassing 21 point home loss last year in Oxford. Miami has the motivation here while Ohio U is likely to overlook a team they have beaten soundly as of late. Throw in the Championship Game celebration and the points are too tempting to pass up. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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