Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense is back. Kansas City wasn't the offensive juggernaut everyone expected earlier this year, but they had a lot of new faces on the offensive line. They have gradually improved throughout the year. Also, Andy Reid is getting more aggressive with his play calling in the playoffs. It is working in a big way. Kansas City had 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense. They then put up 42 points and 552 yards in an overtime win over the #1 ranked defense of the Buffalo Bills.

The Cincinnati Bengals have some excellent weapons on offense. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is a star at quarterback. Burrow is an extremely accurate passer and a good decision maker. Surrounding him with Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah gives the Bengals excellent options on offense. As long as the offensive line can be decent, I think the Bengals can score quite a few points here.

These two teams met in Cincinnati last month. The Bengals won 34-31 as that game sailed over the total. The Bengals had 7.5 ypp and the Chiefs had 7.1 ypp. The offenses couldn't be stopped. 

The Bengals and Chiefs defenses are better than last season, but they aren't good enough to stop the opposing offenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is the time of the year that you always want to be careful about the weather, but the current forecast for this one is for a temperature in the 30's with winds of about 10 mph. 

The Buffalo Bills offense sputtered at times throughout the regular season, but they did have a bunch of success against the Chiefs earlier in the year. Josh Allen is playing well of late, and the Bills have too many weapons on the outside for the Chiefs secondary to contain. 

Kansas City's offense has improved late in the season. It's still very hard to stop Mahomes with Kelce, Hill, and the rest of their weapons. 

The last couple meetings between these two have gone over the total. I think we see a back and forth affair here. There is absolutely a chance for overtime in this one as well. 

The defenses are improved, but the offenses are still better.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play. They rank 6th in the NFL in DVOA on offense. Dak Prescott has been up and down this year, but he has a stellar group of receivers and two solid running backs. The 49ers secondary is arguably the worst secondary of any team in the NFL playoffs this year. Dallas should be able to take advantage of this unit.

San Francisco's offense has been good with Jimmy G under center this year. I think he is an underrated quarterback who does a good job spreading the ball around to his weapons. George Kittle is one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have a hard time with him. 

Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in big plays allowed. 

This game is played in a dome and playoff games in a dome have been great for over bettors. How good? The last 43 games in a dome in the NFL postseason- 29 of them have gone over and only 14 have stayed under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have found a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. As long as the offensive line protects him to some degree here, I do think Burrow and this group of elite pass catchers can pick up some chunk plays on the Chiefs secondary. 

Kansas City's defense has clearly played better in recent weeks, but the Chiefs defense has faced some terrible offenses. They also have caught opponents when they are shorthanded. The Bengals offense is playing very well right now and they are quite healthy.

Cincinnati's defense is missing two key starters at linebacker. The Bengals defense didn't look very good against the Ravens last week with Josh Johnson at the helm. Patrick Mahomes gets back Kelce and the Chiefs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. I don't trust the Bengals defense to be able to slow them down.

If either of these teams gets down much and starts taking a lot of shots and playing quickly, it will help the over in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Dolphins defense has been tremendous of late. Granted, they haven't played a tough schedule of offenses. Still, they have dominated the offenses put in front of them. 

In its current form, the Tennessee Titans offense isn't very good. Ryan Tannehill isn't playing with much confidence, and Derrick Henry is badly missed. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in 20 plus yard plays. They aren't explosive at all right now.

Miami's offense isn't any good either. Tua is inconsistent and relies on Waddle far too much. The Titans defense ranks top ten in the NFL across the board in the past five games. 

The weather here could play a role too. Winds and possible rain mixed with snow is expected to come in during this game. During the middle of the game the sustained winds are expected at about 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That will just increase as the game gets into the fourth quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense is legitimately elite. Cincinnati has 4 or 5 NFL plays on their defense. The secondary is arguably the best in the country. John Metchie being out hurts Alabama's passing attack a lot. Bryce Young is great and he'll have some success here regardless, but they will have to rely very heavily on Jameson Williams. Expect Cincinnati's secondary to have more success slowing down Alabama than did Georgia.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have been run heavy of late. They'd like to do the same in this game, but I think it will be tough. Alabama can be beaten through the air sometimes, but their run defense is tremendous. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 2.51 ypc and PFF ranks them as the #1 run defense in the country. 

Is Desmond Ridder good enough to air it out and consistently burn Alabama? I don't think it is terribly likely. The guys who have burned this Alabama defense in the past (Watson and Joe Burrow for example) are several levels better than Ridder.

Cincinnati has to want a low scoring battle here and they should play at a slow tempo. Alabama has played very slowly with a lead all year and they are a big favorite.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers will be without star quarterback Kenny Pickett here. Pickett opted out of this game and will get ready for the NFL Draft. The Panthers will also be without offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who resigned to go to Nebraska to be the OC. Whipple did a great job with this offense and I consider this a big loss. Pickett is clearly a massive loss and the drop in production to Nick Patti is massive at the quarterback spot.
Kenneth Walker III will sit out this game for Michigan State. The Spartans don't really have another game breaking player on their offense, and this is a huge hit. Thorne has been decent in the passing game, but Pitt has an elite defensive line who will pressure him early and often here. Michigan State would prefer to run, but Pitt has a top 10 run defense in the country and Michigan State is without their star running back.
Both of these offenses had actually been much weaker in their last couple games anyways, and now they are without their stars.
Take the under. 

*Note- this has moved down a bit since I selected it. I would still play this for a 4 star rating down to 55.5 and a 3 star rating down to 54. Thank you and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 130th in the country in tempo. No one in the country plays as slow as Minnesota. Minnesota is going to run the football and try to very slowly move the ball down the field. 

The Golden Gophers run on 69.5% of their offensive plays. This is a conservative offense. Minnesota is up against a West Virginia defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Mountaineers are a solid 48th in rushing play success rate allowed.

The Minnesota defense is 4th in the nation in total yards per game allowed. Minnesota ranks 18th in success rate allowed defensively. The Golden Gophers are solid on all levels on defense. They don't give up big plays either. They have only allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more all year (3rd best in the country). 

West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown will not play in this game. This puts more pressure on a relatively weak offensive line and a quarterback in Jarrett Doege who has been subpar. 

A lot of running the football and very few big plays here. West Virginia is 93rd in pace as well, so a slow tempo from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have faced the second easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Their offense ranks 19th in YPP and that is with Teddy Bridgewater under center and against weak defenses. Now, they are left with Drew Lock and they are up against an Oakland defense that is quite a bit better than anyone expected they would be this season.

Oakland will likely be without Darren Waller here. The Raiders are much worse offensively without Waller, who is an elite tight end. Oakland could muster only 16 points against Cleveland last week without Waller. They only scored 15 against Washington without Waller. They scored only 9 points against KC without Waller. The Broncos defense is better than those defenses. I don't think Las Vegas will score many here.

Bridgewater to Lock is a big step down. Bridgewater has been an underrated quarterback for much of his NFL career. Lock is wildly inconsistent and he lacks good weapons on the outside as well.

A low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears turn to Nick Foles in this game. The Bears really don't have a good option at quarterback at all. Foles likes to throw a bunch of short passes and play it very safe. Allen Robinson is the Bears only good option at wide receiver and he is currently on the COVID list. He is doubtful to return before this game. The Bears will be without Jakeem Grant and left tackle Jason Peters as well.

Seattle has played well defensively of late. The Seahawks are second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bears are likely to have a conservative game plan here, and I don't think that will lead to much success for Chicago. 

The Bears defense has faced the toughest slate of opposing offenses so far this year. Seattle's offense isn't even close to what it was in the past. The Seahawks have been pretty reliant on the big play, but the Bears don't give up too many big plays.

Seattle's weather for Sunday looks very questionable. There is a 50% chance of snow during this game and winds of 14 mph with very cold temperatures are in the forecast. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Divisional unders in the NFL have been good bets especially in the late regular season games. These two teams know each other well and that often helps the defense. 

Jake Fromm is expected to get his first start for the Giants here. Fromm isn't likely to be anything more than a game manager here. He was fine at Georgia, but he was never asked to do too much with an elite offensive line and very good receivers. Kadarius Toney is a game time decision here, and if he does play he will be less than 100 percent. The Giants lack outside weapons. The offensive line is below average as well.

The Eagles run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. The Giants defense has actually been pretty good this year. Despite playing the 5th toughest slate of offenses, the Giants are 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Seven of the Giants last eight games finished at 40 points or lower. 

Winds of 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Josh Allen is banged up for the Buffalo Bills. I would expect the Bills to be more cautious in their play calling here for a couple reasons. First, the Panthers have a good secondary and they could make things difficult for the Bills to begin with. Second, the Bills are a big favorite here and they can likely win this game without Allen having to do a lot. Allen is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league as well, and limited mobility makes him much less dangerous.

The Panthers offense is a mess regardless of whether Cam Newton or PJ Walker is under center. Carolina is going to want to run the football a bunch here. Matt Rhule has said he wants 35 carries a game. Here is his chance. The Bills secondary is above average even with their injury problems. The Bills run defense was taken advantage of by the Patriots. I don't think the Panthers can do the same, but they will try.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are very reliant on the passing attack. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry (108th out of 130 teams in the country). The Eagles rely on Ben Bryant to complete a bunch of quick passes and do damage through the air. Liberty's strength on defense is their pass defense and their pass rush. Eastern Michigan has given up 38 sacks (Liberty has 33 sacks too). Liberty ranks 17th in passing play success rate allowed.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they do rank 9th in explosive plays allowed. They don't give up many big plays. That will help against Liberty's explosive offense. Liberty has allowed 50 sacks this year, and the Eagles should get to Willis some of the time. Eastern Michigan has done a good job slowing teams down once they get into the red zone as well.

There is rain in the forecast for this one and that could keep things a little more conservative. I think Liberty will do a good job slowing down Eastern Michigan's passing attack especially with help from the weather.

The pace of the game should be fairly slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense is the best in the NFL. They have scored 29 points or more in eight straight games. Tom Brady and this Bucs offense have consistently been tremendous this year.

Buffalo's defense is good, but the Bills defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. First, the Bills have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bills have also played in a couple bad weather games that have helped their numbers. Also, Tre'Davious White is now out and he is their top cover corner. That's not a good guy to be without when going against this Bucs passing attack.

The Bills offense is still good. Last week's game against New England is a throw away. The winds there were far too much to throw the ball around. Josh Allen should have success against a middle of the road Bucs secondary. 

The weather here looks good. The total is pretty high, but I think this is a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary has been aggressive this year. They have been able to force some turnovers, but they are also prone to giving up big plays. Joe Burrow has turned it over too much this year and the 49ers could pick up an interception or two here. Still, Burrow is a good quarterback and his receivers are very good. They are more than capable of the big play ball here.

The Bengals lost their defensive leader in Logan Wilson due to an injury. Cincinnati's defense is clearly better than last year, but they aren't as good as their statistics on the season would tell you. They have played a weak slate of opposing offenses. Ewuzie is likely to try to play, but he is far less than 100%. Deebo Samuel is expected to play here and that helps the 49ers in a big way. George Kittle should have a big game against a Bengals defense that has struggled badly covering tight ends this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans are the worst offense in the NFL, and it isn't close. Houston has been held to 9 points or less in six of their last ten games. The Texans gained 2.8 yards per play at home against a mediocre Colts defense in their last game. Houston has no strengths on defense.

The Seattle Seahawks offense has been a mess of late as well. Seattle might have won last weekend, but the offense didn't look like it was fixed. In fact, they only gained 4.8 yards per play. The offensive line is weak and Russell Wilson doesn't look 100 percent.

The Seattle defense has been good against the run. Houston has no deep passing to keep them honest.

The Texans defense has been fighting hard in recent weeks. They haven't given up.

An ugly game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I had a lean to the under in this game even without weather concerns. With the weather forecast for Buffalo, I have to bet the under here.

The weather forecast calls for 21 mph sustained winds at the start of this game with wind gusts of 30 mph through the game. There is currently about a 60 or 70% chance of snow showers during this game as well. The wind is the key, and the snow would be a nice bonus on top of it.

The Patriots are a run heavy team, but the Bills rank second in the NFL in rushing defense.  Buffalo's offense is best when going through the air, but the wind should make them more conservative and the Pats secondary is elite.

This is a very big divisional game. Divisional unders have been very solid in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*This number has moved down a bit as more people have seen the forecast here. I would still play this game down to 41* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos go to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a key AFC West matchup on Sunday night. The Chiefs have struggled this year on the whole, but here they are back at the top of the division and coming off a bye week.

Kansas City is laying a pretty big number here. The expectation is for Kansas City to play well off a bye thanks in large part to Andy Reid. I don't disagree with that, but if Kansas City does play from the lead it helps the under here.

When Andy Reid coached teams are home favorites of 6 points or more- the under is a whopping 45-19 since 2005. The Chiefs are in that spot here. 

Kansas City moves much slower when they have the lead. Denver is likely to use the two high safety look and make Mahomes gradually move the ball down the field as well.

The Chiefs defense has quietly been much better in the last few weeks.

The weather calls for sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts of 22 mph for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Lions offense is just dreadful. It is terrible to begin with, and now they are without clearly their best offensive player in De'Andre Swift. How are they going to move the football consistently? I certainly wouldn't want to count on Jared Goff and this terrible roster of receivers. How bad has this Detroit offense been? They haven't topped 19 points in a single game since week one of the season. They are averaging 11.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook. Mattison is a solid backup, but he doesn't have the same breakaway capabilities. The Vikings should be playing from the lead here, and I would expect them to keep things more conservative in this one. Zimmer is a coach who does slow the pace and run more with the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers offense has been fantastic all year. They rank 19th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt has been led by star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett ranks 2nd in PFF passing grade in the country this year. He should be able to rip apart this Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest is 105th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

How has the Wake Forest defense fared against the top offenses they have played this year? They allowed 34 points against Louisville. They allowed 55 points against N Carolina. They allowed 48 points against a bad Clemson offense. They gave up 56 points to Army. They allowed 42 against NC State. Pitt ranks as the second best offense they have faced this year. 

Wake Forest ranks 4th in tempo in the country. Sam Hartman has had a special year as well. The Demon Deacons should be able to score quite a few on a Pitt defense that isn't nearly as good as they have been in past seasons. Pitt is 78th in opponent QBR and 58th in passing play success rate allowed. Wake Forest has a whopping 39 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Two explosive offenses in what should be an exciting back and forth game. Overtime is a possibility in a game that should be tight as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two got to 54 points, but that was largely because of App State turnovers leading to short fields and quick scores. These are two good under teams on the season. The under is 7-5 in App State's games. The under is 9-3 in Louisiana's games.

Levi Lewis has struggled at QB for Louisiana this year. The App State defense has really been strong at the end of the season. I expect Louisiana to have a conservative game plan and run the football quite a bit here. App State allowed 7.8 points per game in their last four games overall.

Both teams have slowed their tempo down in recent games. I don't see a lot of possessions in this contest. 

The two teams run the ball on 60% and 61% of their offensive plays. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a terrible offense this year. Northwestern ranks 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Wildcats have been able to break a long play here and there, but that should be very difficult to do against an Illinois defense that has been great at preventing big plays. Illinois is 3rd in the nation in defensive explosiveness allowed. They have a great safety in Kerby Joseph, and Walters has been a great defensive coordinator for the Fighting Illini.

Illinois is very run heavy on offense. Northwestern will give up yards here, but they have been preventing big plays as well. The Wildcats rank 14th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Illinois has slowed their tempo down as the year has gone on. A crazy 7 of the last 8 games for Illinois have stayed at or below 38 points. Last week, their game went over the total, but Iowa only put up 3.6 ypp and neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. 

Northwestern has scored 14 points or less in all but two of their Big Ten games. In both of the other two they only scored 21 points. 

Illinois should control the tempo and run the ball a lot here to keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have a spot in the AAC Title game against Cincinnati. That game is next week and that is the big one for Houston. I wouldn't expect Houston to try to run up the score here, because it really doesn't matter to them. They just want to get a win and get out of here. 

UConn is admittedly very bad on defense. They are even worse on offense though. The Houston defense ranks 6th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Cougars have been dominant on the defensive side of the football.

The weather here should play a role as well. Winds of about 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are expected during this contest. That should make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing for a spot in the ACC Title game. Wake Forest will have a pretty tough challenge against a Boston College team that has played much better with a healthy Phil Jurkovec.

Wake Forest is a very fast paced team. They rank 4th in the nation in tempo. Wake Forest does rely on the passing game heavily. Sam Hartman has been very good this year. He is going up against a Boston College secondary that has been excellent this year though. Boston College ranks 14th in coverage grade at PFF. They have shut down some solid passing attacks this year.

Boston College lacks a dynamic running game. That is important because Wake Forest has been terrible against the run this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball here, but they aren't likely to get huge chunk plays as some other teams have been able to.

The weather here is important as well. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during this game. That is the kind of weather that makes a huge difference. There are strong angles for the under in this situation.

I don't generally want to bet unders with Wake Forest. In this case with them playing for so much and in extreme wind, I'll do so.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here.

Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe.

The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here.

Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. 

Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We're going to get either Colt McCoy (seems increasingly likely) or a badly dinged up Kyler Murray in this one. Hopkins is out for the Cardinals as well and that makes this offense a much less intimidating task for the Seattle defense. Arizona had just 3.2 yards per play last week against Carolina. 

Seattle's offense put up 0 points last week against Green Bay. I certainly expect them to be much better here, but this Seattle offensive line is a major problem and their running game isn't good at all either. Russell Wilson isn't 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals defense is an above average unit as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders have continually given up big plays in the passing game. Gus Bradley is unwilling to go away from his normal scheme to use the two high safety look that has been great against Patrick Mahomes and others in the NFL who are great with the deep ball. Mahomes burned the Raiders last week. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack can do the same.

Burrow has three great options at wide receiver in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Chase and Higgins are both excellent deep threats. 

The Bengals defense looked good early in the season, but the truth has come out in recent weeks. This is still a below average defense that is very poor in the secondary. They struggle against good tight ends, which makes the Raiders a tough matchup for them.

The Bengals last 3 games have sailed over this total. This one is played in the dome and conditions will be ideal for these passing games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total of the Week* The Detroit Lions plan to start back Tim Boyle in this one. While Jared Goff isn't a good NFL quarterback, it is a step down from Goff to Boyle. The game plan should be extremely conservative with Boyle under center. In fact, in recent weeks Dan Campbell has already been running the football a lot more. Swift had a whopping 33 carries for Detroit last week.

Baker Mayfield is dinged up and far less than 100 percent.  The Browns are highly likely to want to run the football a lot in this one and get out of here with a win over a weak team. 

The weather for this game should change things a bit. This is a stadium that is impacted a lot by wind gusts from the lake. Rain showers are expected with 15 mph wind and gusts over 20 mph. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't been nearly as good as you would have thought by the final scores in their last two games. The Titans only gained 195 yards in their win over the Rams. They had just 3.5 yards per play. In their win over the Saints, the Titans gained only 264 yards and 4.6 yards per play. 

The Titans offense is still decent, but Henry is a huge key and defenses can play them differently now. 

Houston's offense has been weak all season and they tend to be very conservative. The Texans have been especially bad offensively on the road throughout the course of the year. 

The weather for this game calls for a temperature in the 50's and steady rain with winds of 10-15 mph. That should be enough to make the two teams even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense ranks first in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, and it isn't particularly close. That's important since the Philadelphia Eagles have gone extremely run heavy in recent weeks. Philadelphia is a solid running team and they'll have some success here, but big gainers shouldn't be expected. They'll also likely use up a bunch of time and have to kick some field goals.

The Saints offense is a shell of its former self. New Orleans will throw in some gimmicks here and there but they just don't have the playmakers to be above average in any facet of the game right now. The Eagles defense is top ten against the run as well, and the Saints are going to play conservatively here also.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time.

Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. 

Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). 

Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. 

These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game.

Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season.

This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total.

Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him.

Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball.

Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. 

This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night in the MAC. Both of these teams have at least a shot at the MAC West still (Central Michigan has the better chance). 

Ball State has a pretty good defense at least by MAC standards. Central Michigan is a good run defense and a poor pass defense. 

Ball State doesn't allow big plays which is crucial for an under. Ball State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Central Michigan has relied heavily on big plays this year, and Ball State should be able to slow those down better than most MAC teams.

Both teams probably will need to rely on the run more than normal in this game. The weather forecast for Muncie on Wednesday night calls for winds of 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph and rain throughout this game.

Both defenses are clearly better against the run than the pass, so their weaknesses might not be exposed as much as normal here thanks to the bad weather.

Take the under. 

*This line is moving down as the weather forecast is being seen by more of the market. I would bet this game down to 58. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings rank second in the NFL in tempo. The LA Chargers rank 5th in the NFL in tempo. Both of these teams are more than willing to go uptempo and throw it around if needed. 

These two defenses are badly banged up. Joey Bosa is questionable and didn't practice on Friday. Ryan Smith is out and Michael Davis is doubtful as well at the cornerback spot. Adderly and Webb are both questionable at safety. 

The Vikings are without star Danielle Hunter and now Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce are out as well. Breeland is questionable at cornerback for the Vikings also.

The Chargers are very willing to go for it on 4th down and that can lead to more points in either direction.

The two offenses are pretty healthy, and the two defenses are a mess. This one has real shootout potential.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are said to be doubtful to play according to Ian Rapoport. With Chase Edmonds out due to an ankle injury, the Cardinals will lean heavily on James Conner. Conner is a solid runner, but he isn't an explosive guy. He is more of a strong runner who can usually get you a few yards. McCoy is clearly far more conservative than Murray. If Murray does play he'll be at much less than 100%.

P.J. Walker starts here for the Panthers. Walker doesn't look like an NFL quarterback in his time under center thus far. The game plan is likely to be very conservative with Walker at quarterback. The Panthers have scored just 28 points in their last three games combined. 

Arizona quietly has the #2 ranked defense in DVOA so far this year. The Cardinals aren't likely to give up much against this Carolina offense.

On the other side, Carolina is 2nd in YPP allowed and 11th in DVOA on defense. 

These two teams both rank in the bottom 10 in the country in tempo this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys were awful offensively for more than 3/4 of the game against the Denver Broncos, and yet they are still first in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. 

Dak Prescott looked very rusty for much of the game against the Broncos, but I expect Dak to be much better here. It helps that Atlanta has a weak pass rush and a poor group of corners as well.

The Falcons defensive numbers are definitely skewed. They have played one offense in the top 12 in the NFL in yards per play all season long (Tampa Bay). They allowed 48 points in that game. Their last few games have been against bottom 10 offenses in the NFL. This is a very weak Atlanta defense.

I don't think the Dallas defense is as good as many believe they are right now. They are better than last year, but that isn't saying a lot. 

Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in tempo. Atlanta ranks 14th in the NFL in tempo. This one is played in a dome on the fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Sun Belt action here. This is far from a "good" matchup, but I see value on this one. 

Arkansas State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo. UL Monroe ranks 29th in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 130th in yards per play allowed (out of 130 teams). UL Monroe ranks 113th out of 130 in yards per play allowed. 

Arkansas State throws the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. UL Monroe ranks 117th in opponent QBR. The Red Wolves should bust some big plays here.

Arkansas State's defense is the worst in the country, and it isn't close. Arkansas State has allowed a ridiculous 13 plays of 60 yards or more this season! Only one other team in the country has allowed more than 7. In fact, 15 teams have allowed zero. Arkansas State is ultra vulnerable against a fast paced offense that has home run possibilities.

Both offenses rank in the top half of the country in explosiveness. Good weather is in the forecast for this one. A fast pace with two weak defenses and very little to play for is usually a good thing for a high scoring contest.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers host the South Alabama Jaguars here. 

South Alabama is expected to be without Jake Bentley at quarterback. Former starter Desmond Trotter will step in and be under center here. The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball on hardly anyone this year, and I wouldn't expect them to be able to run on Appalachian State here. South Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC. Their offensive line allows the opponent in the backfield too often.

The Appalachian State offense likes to run the football. The Mountaineers run the ball on nearly 58% of their offensive plays. South Alabama is 19th in the nation in YPC allowed. Chase Brice has been pretty good for Appalachian State this year, but I think this is a game where Appalachian State will be happy to salt this game away with the run game.

The weather here is part of the reason I like the under. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 28 mph are in the forecast. That is certainly enough to change the way the game is played. A more conservative game script likely means more running clock and less chances for big plays.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers rank second in the NFL in tempo. The Philadelphia Eagles rank 6th in the NFL in tempo. There should be a lot of snaps here. We don't have a posted total that is set particularly high given that pace of play either.

The Chargers strength is throwing the football. The Eagles defensive weakness is still their secondary. I would expect Justin Herbert and his wideouts to have a nice day here on Sunday. Austin Ekeler played despite being banged up last Sunday, and he averaged a very impresssive 5.8 yards per carry.

The Eagles rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry. The Chargers are dead last in YPC allowed. The Eagles offensive front should allow them to be able to run on the Chargers here.

The weather for this matchup looks good thus far. 

Jerome Boger's crew will be officiated this game. This is the best "over" crew in the business thanks to their defensive holding and pass interference calls.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Broncos aren't nearly the defense people expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Denver got rid of Von Miller and that clearly is a hit. They also have several very key injuries. Bradley Chubb, Bryce Callahan, Josey Jewell, and AJ Johnson are all out here. 

The Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL. They aren't the team you want to be going against with a multitude of defensive injuries. 

Dak Prescott is expected to be back here, and he has two great running backs in Elliot and Pollard in the backfield. Lamb is questionable on the outside, but Dallas still has several top notch wide receivers. 

The Cowboys defense is improved, but they aren't as good as many believe now. Dallas still ranks as a bottom five defense in yards per play allowed. Teddy Bridgewater has Jeudy back on the outside and the Cowboys are unlikely to get too much pressure on Bridgewater here.

Dallas has scored 29 points or more in all but one game that Prescott has started (20 against the Chargers- they had a whopping 7.0 YPP in that one too). They should hit 30 or more here again.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars defense ranks 5th in the country in success rate allowed. They are 13th in YPP allowed and that is despite a high scoring contest against an elite SMU offense this past weekend. 

Houston won't be up against anything like that here. USF is 99th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls try to run the ball as much as possible, but Houston's strength is their run defense. The Cougars are 4th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at just 2.82. 

Houston's offense isn't special. Clayton Tune is more of a game manager and this Houston team ranks 105th in the nation in pace of play. The Cougars should be happy to get a lead and run the block and play conservatively. 

Houston only gave up 355 yards against SMU. The Cougars defense has been dominant much of the year. They should be great again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday evening. The weather forecast in Seattle is pretty extreme over the next few days. What's in the forecast? A bunch of rain day after day. It's pretty wet in general in Seattle, but this is extreme weather. For a couple days there will be fairly significant winds as well. One of those days is Saturday. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast for this one.

I would expect a more conservative game plan from both teams in this one. What will it mean? Likely a bunch of running the football. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country at preventing explosive plays. 

Washington isn't a very good run defense, but they will likely put more people in the box in these conditions. Oregon isn't quite as explosive on the ground without Verdell either.

Washington's ground game isn't good. The Huskies rank 100th in ypc on the season. They are up against an Oregon defense that ranks 29th in ypc allowed this year. 

None of Washington's Pac 12 games have gone over this total in regulation this year. Now we add in some bad weather. 

Take the under here. 

*Update- This line is moving down as more people are seeing the weather forecast here. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 49 and a 3 star rating down to 47. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Play Under* One of Clemson's ACC games has gone over 45 points in regulation. Which one was it? It was last week's contest against Florida State which should have finished with 43 points but for the laterals backward 40 yards and a touchdown at the final whistle for a terrible beat on the under.

Louisville plays slowly, but relies on a pretty efficient running game to be successful on the offensive end. While Clemson's offense is a mess, the Tigers still have an elite defense. How good are they? Clemson ranks 7th in YPP allowed this year. They are 9th in the country in success rate allowed. I don't think Louisville will have an easy time navigating things against this Clemson front seven.

The Clemson offense has no real identity. The Tigers rank 111th in the nation in yards per play. Louisville's defense has improved in recent weeks and I think the Cardinals can hold Clemson in check as other teams have this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd and Florida Atlantic Owls both play pretty fast so taking an under here doesn't feel great initially, but once you look at the matchup more closely I think there is value.

Marshall is all about throwing it around. Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 6th best in the country in opponent QBR. The Owls have an elite secondary. Grant Wells has struggled against the top secondaries he has faced so far this year. Marshall's rushing attack isn't very good. 

Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry has been terrible when under pressure this year, and Marshall ranks in the top six in the country in pass rush grade. The Thundering Herd should get a lot of heat on Perry here. 

I see both offenses having some big negative plays and getting behind the sticks. Even if they move the ball down the field, there could be some field goals instead of touchdowns.

The defenses have the upper hand. Winds of about 20 mph during this game are definitely a positive for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Their opponent in that game was the Oklahoma Sooners. 

Kansas State ranks 4th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. They are 30th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They have been pretty good at preventing explosive plays especially in the running game.

Kansas' offense isn't good at anything, but they are especially bad if you force them to throw the ball. I expect Kansas State to do precisely that in this contest.

Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in pace of play. Kansas ranks 121st in the nation in pace of play. It is very rare you'll see a posted total set this high in a game with two teams who play this slowly.

Kansas has only allowed 15 plays of 30 yards or more. The Jayhawks will give up yards and points, but it is likely to usually be longer drives from Kansas State that take quite a bit of time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have played six straight games that have finished with a total of 38 points or fewer. Illinois has been an under machine. The Fighting Illini defense has improved throughout the season. They have a very good set of safeties to lead the defense. The Illinois offense is still a mess. Peters isn't healthy enough and the offensive line has been disappointing.

Minnesota is on their third string running back. They have still been good running the football, and I do think they'll get their rushing yards here. It's key to point out the pace that Minnesota plays at. Minnesota ranks 129th in the tempo in the country. Only one team is using more time between plays than them and that is Army. 

The Golden Gophers are 14.5 point favorites here. They should have the lead late and that would mean they are using the clock and trying to end the contest. That's a good game script for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints are a completely different team than they were a few years ago. The Saints are now a defense first team. New Orleans has a top five defense in the NFL. They actually have gotten a bit healthier of late, and the Saints already rank 3rd in the NFL in YPP allowed so far this year.

New Orleans is 31st in pace of play. With Jameis Winston, the Saints staff has decided to play it very safe and I don't blame them one bit. The Saints have ran the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps so far this year. That is easily first in the NFL. 

Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL. I don't see the Saints having all that much success on the ground here. 

The Bucs have a great offense, but the Saints defense has given Tom Brady some trouble in recent seasons. I think they'll have a good scheme again here. Will they shut them down? No. I do think they can slow them down though.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team secondary has been as bad as any in football. Washington has allowed 30 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. 

Washington's offense didn't punt a single time last week against Green Bay. Somehow they managed only 10 points. They put up 6.1 yards per play on Green Bay though and that was an encouraging sign for this team.

Denver gets Jerry Jeudy back for this game and he should be able to take advantage of the Washington secondary. Teddy Bridgewater is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to play well here.

This is a very low total with a favorable weather forecast for this one. 

Denver has a ton of key injuries on defense. At a full strength they are a good defense, but right now they are no better than mediocre.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs clearly have a good defense. San Diego State has proven they are good against the run. Their pass defense looks very good by the numbers, but they haven't been tested by anyone. Let's look at the offenses they have faced thus far: New Mexico State (Terrible team in general), Arizona (awful passing attack), Utah (before the switch to Cam Rising), Towson (FCS team), New Mexico (Bottom 15 passing attack in country), San Jose State (with a backup quarterback), and Air Force (they just run it all the time). 

San Diego State has a pretty good pass defense, but I'm not convinced they are as good as the numbers would make you think right now. Fresno State ranks 9th in the nation in passing play success rate. Jake Haener has been tremendous and Jalen Cropper is an elite wide receiver.

Fresno State's run defense has been beaten by some teams this year. San Diego State has been running it better in recent weeks. The Aztecs are accustomed to coasting late in the game and using up the clock. I think Fresno State will score enough that San Diego State will have to keep going until the final whistle here.

A total of 44.5 is extremely low when one of the teams is as good offensively as Fresno State. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a pretty solid unit. Southern Miss ranks 39th in defensive success rate allowed. They have given up quite a few big plays this year, but Alabama skewed those stats some and they obviously don't play any other team that has talent like that. The Golden Eagles are especially strong against the run.

Southern Miss is atrocious on offense. The Golden Eagles are 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per play. They are averaging only 4.08 ypp even in CUSA play against really weak defenses. They are putting up a miserable 1.56 ypc in CUSA action. The Golden Eagles have scored 32 points in their last 3 games combined. 

Middle Tennessee State is 98th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Blue Raiders have some success throwing the football, but their rushing attack has been very weak. 

MTSU is good in the secondary, but they are weak against the run. Southern Miss hasn't been able to run it against anyone so far this year.

Showers are in the forecast for this game (not heavy), but they could change the game some. The winds are expected to be 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph during this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Indiana has scored a grand total of 28 points in their four Big Ten contests. It looks like they might be without their top two quarterbacks (Penix and Tuttle) in this one. Against Ohio State, they had to play McCulley and Gremel quite a bit and the offense went nowhere fast. McCulley was 1/6 for 30 yards passing. Gremel was 3/4 for 9 yards passing.

Maryland has been far less dynamic in the passing game without Demas on the field. The Terrapins have shown they are willing to slow the game down and run it more when they have a lead. They are favored in this contest.

Indiana's running game has been non-existent for the last two years. The Hoosiers offensive front is terrible. Maryland has taken on some good offenses in recent weeks and their defensive stats are a bit skewed. In their current state, Indiana is a terrible offensive team. The Hoosiers are still coached by a good defensive mind and I think their defense can improve the rest of the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have picked up their pace. In their last couple games they have been playing about two seconds per play faster than they did earlier in the season. Texas ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play on the season. Thompson has done a good job at quarterback. Bijan Robinson is the star of the team, and he has been doing some major damage. 

Baylor's Gerry Bohanon has been tremendous at quarterback for the Bears. The Bears offensive line also ranks in the top 5 in the nation at PFF in both pass blocking and run blocking grade. Baylor's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play. 

Texas' defense ranks 109th in YPP allowed. Baylor ranks 35th in the nation in yards per play. Both teams have given up a lot of big plays this year. Baylor has already allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Texas has already allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. These offenses should be able to bust big plays here.

Baylor's contests against West Virginia and BYU topped this total. Oklahoma State slowed down both of these offenses, but that is the best defense in the Big 12 and neither of these defenses are on that level.

I made this total several points higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have become a tremendous under team. Illinois is coming off a 9 OT game that finished 20-18. Illinois has played 5 straight games that have finished with 38 points or less. Joseph has been tremendous at safety for Illinois this year, he's rated as the single best safety in the country by PFF so far this year. The Illinois offense is running the football early and often. Look for them to play it very safe here as Peters is back under center and he isn't completely healthy. 

Rutgers is coming off a game where they put up only 7 points against a bad Northwestern defense. The Scarlet Knights are 119th in the nation in yards per play. Illinois is 118th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams aren't explosive at all on offense. This projects as a grind it out type game where both teams struggle to get big chunk plays. Rutgers has just 7 plays of 30 yards or more all year.

Look for field goals instead of touchdowns and a lot of punting the football in this Big Ten battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* What do the Seattle Seahawks want to do a lot more of now that Russell Wilson is out? They want to run the football and be far more conservative. That isn't likely to work well against the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up just 3.35 ypc on the season thus far. 

New Orleans ranks as the slowest paced team in the NFL. They clearly don't trust Jameis Winston and they are running on 57% of their offensive plays so far this year. The Saints are just 25th in the NFL in yards per play. 

Rain and wind is in the forecast for this one. Winds of 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph should change the game and help the defense even more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather doesn't often play a major role in games played in Santa Clara, but it looks like it will play a very big role on Sunday night. Historic rains are headed for California and the west coast in general in the next few days. Forecasts currently call for 3-4 inches of rain on Sunday alone in the Santa Clara area. What about the wind? Sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph are in the forecast.

The Colts rank 26th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers rank 22nd in the NFL in tempo. With these conditions we should see a lot of running plays and that means a moving clock far more often than in a normal NFL game. 

The under has been very good at Santa Clara in the past because of the thick grass. This surface could be a real mess in this kind of rainstorm.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and New York Jets met earlier this season. The Patriots won that game 25-6. The two teams averaged just 4.9 and 4.6 yards per play in that contest. 

New England and New York both play at a tempo slower than the NFL average. Both teams struggle badly to get big plays. New England has only 1 play of 40 yards or more all season. The Jets have only 18 plays of 20 yards or more (27th best in the NFL). Both teams have struggled badly in the red zone on offense as well. 

The Jets defense is above average against the run. The Patriots prefer to run the football when they can. The Patriots offense is very vanilla with Mac Jones at quarterback. 

The Jets offense has no running game. The Jets shockingly have zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more all year. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to have 0 rushing plays of 20 yards or more.

It looks like there be some wind in this game- nothing extreme but enough to possibly make both offenses a bit more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes meet in Corvallis on Saturday night. The weather here calls for quite a bit of rain during the day and again later at night in Corvallis. There should be some showers and a bit of a breeze during this game.

Oregon State prefers to run the football. The Beavers have a pretty good game manager in Chance Nolan at QB, but the Beavers are all about the run. In fact, in Pac 12 play 71% of their plays have been runs. Utah's defense ranks 1st in Pac 12 play at stopping the run. 

Utah and Oregon State both rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of not giving up big plays. That's important especially when the weather could play a factor in the game and the total isn't all that low. 

Utah's Cam Rising has improved the Utes offense, but Utah has been getting off to slow starts each week. Corvallis is no easy place to play and the Utes are in a bit of a tough spot here. 

Oregon State ranks 100th out of 130 teams in terms of pace of play. Utah has played quite a bit slower in their last couple games as well. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys are unbeaten, but they are a flawed team. The Cowboys offense isn't good at all. Spencer Sanders is a poor passer. Sanders ranks 83rd at PFF in quarterback grade this year. He isn't connecting on any deep plays this year in the passing game. The Oklahoma State offense will have to be able to run here. Can they? Iowa State is 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed this season. The Cyclones should make it hard on the Cowboys to get going here.

Iowa State prefers to play at a slow pace. The Cyclones rank 110th in the nation out of 130 teams in terms of tempo. Iowa State's running game hasn't been as good as expected this year. Oklahoma State has what I believe is the best defense in the Big 12 (2nd is probably Iowa State). The Cowboys are tremendous against the run. Oklahoma State should slow down Breece Hall here. 

Iowa State is favored here and if they are playing from the lead that likely would lead to more conservative play and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a 24-7 win at Iowa. Purdue has made a habit out of having very low scoring games this year. In fact their last four games have finished with a total of: 40 points, 22 points, 33 points, and 31 points. 

Wisconsin has already played three games this year that finished with a total of 34 points or less. The Badgers defense is elite. They rank 1st in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense. The Badgers have given up some points in games where their defense was excellent (Notre Dame for example) because of turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Boilermakers aren't going to be able to run the ball. Purdue is averaging 2.75 ypc on the year. Wisconsin has good corners and I expect Jim Leonard to have a good plan for defending David Bell.

The Purdue defense is underrated. They rank 7th in the nation in success rate allowed. Wisconsin's offense isn't good at all. Graham Mertz has been bad, and the running game isn't up to par either. The Badgers are 101st in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Look for a hard fought battle here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes struggled offensively in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but that was largely because they faced great defenses. Kent State had to go up against Texas A&M and Iowa and even a pretty good Maryland defense. Kent State is now in the MAC where their uptempo offense should be able to pile up points against most of the defenses.

Kent State has scored 27, 48, and 31 points in their last three games. The only defense that ranks slightly worse than Ohio that Kent State has played so far this year (of FBS opponents) is Buffalo. That is the game Kent scored 48 points.

Ohio has a good running attack. They really aren't good at anything else. Ohio ran for nearly 400 yards on Akron. They ran for 271 yards against Buffalo last week. Kent State has an awful run defense. They are allowing 5.42 yards per carry. The Bobcats should get a big day from their running backs and quarterback Armani Rogers on the ground here. 

Kent State plays at an ultra fast tempo. The Golden Flashes rank 2nd in the country in tempo. They have played much faster in MAC action than in non-conference action. They are averaging less than 19 seconds between plays. 

When these two teams last met in 2019 the final was 45-38. Expect another high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns meet in Cleveland on Sunday. These two teams are 7th and 14th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The offenses are solid, but they don't play fast. It might surprise you to know that Arizona ranks 24th in overall tempo this year. Cleveland ranks an even slower 29th.

Cleveland is coming off a high scoring game and that is part of the reason the total is so high here. This game appears to setup differently though.

The weather for this game looks highly suspect. Right now, there are winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the forecast. We saw last year what the extreme wind from the lake in Cleveland can do to make a game much lower scoring. 

Even without extreme weather I think this projects as a game where both teams can limit the big plays from the other side. The weather is a great bonus though. 

Look for a hard fought game with more running of the football than a normal NFL game, which will keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team has allowed 30 points or more to every team they have played this year. Now, they host the Kansas City Chiefs who have arguably the best offense in football. It isn't going to go well for the Washington defense in this game either.

Buffalo put up 43 points on this Washington defense. Kansas City is 2-3 and they should be upset after their home loss to the Bills on Sunday night. I'll be very surprised if Mahomes and company aren't on point offensively against this terrible Washington secondary.

Speaking of bad defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and it isn't even close.

Washington is a middle of the road offense, but I think Taylor Heinicke and company can have a good game here against the very weak Chiefs defense. Washington has averaged 26.75 points per game in their last four games. They should put up a good number here again.

Two terrible secondaries and the quarterbacks should take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati has drafted some very solid linebackers the last couple seasons and it is starting to pay off. The Bengals are also much stronger on the defensive line now. It helps that the Bengals defense has stayed much healthier so far this season too.

The Detroit Lions wide receivers are the worst in the NFL. They are now without their top two wideouts for this game due to injury also. Their star center Ragnow is also out with an injury. Jared Goff is pretty good as a game manager, but he isn't surrounded by much talent here now, and the Bengals defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here. 

Joe Mixon is still banged up for the Bengals. He'll likely play, but he isn't 100 percent healthy. Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback, but the offensive line in front of him is very weak. Burrow was knocked around last week again and I think the play calling here could be pretty conservative from the Bengals. 

The Lions defense isn't supremely talented by any means, but they have been playing really hard for Dan Campbell. This Lions defense has looked much better in recent weeks. They have allowed just 19, 24, and 19 points against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings in their last three games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45.

Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. 

In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here.

On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. 

Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game.

South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. 

There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances.

Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season.

The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. 

The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well.

Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. 

If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Giants rank 8th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The offensive line has been far better than expected. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year as well. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are great in the passing game in the middle of the field and Dallas is weak when it comes to defending tight ends in the passing game.

The Giants are scoring a touchdown on only 33.33% of their trips into the red zone so far this year. That should positively regress over time, and that would mean the Giants could start piling up the points.

Dallas has an elite offense. They might be the second best offense in the NFL (Chiefs 1st) right now. Dallas is so well balanced and Dak Prescott is a great fit in this offense. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, and they have played some very good defenses this year. This is the worst ranked defense they have faced yet. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard here. 

Dallas has shown they will let the opposition score a lot when the Cowboys are playing from the lead. On a fast track here I like the chances of a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers expect to start Trey Lance in this one and George Kittle is expected to be out of the lineup. That's clearly a negative for the over, but that is more than accounted for in this number. 

San Francisco was pretty good offensively last week. They averaged 6.3 yards per play against Seattle, but had some big mistakes that cost them.

Arizona is an offensive machine right now. Kyler Murray is playing as well as anyone. The Cardinals have so many weapons all over the field and Murray is great at getting everyone involved. 

San Francisco has home run ability in the run game, and Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Trey Lance will help the run game and I think that could be tough to stop for Arizona throughout this one.

The 49ers secondary gives up too many big plays, and Arizona has been piling up the big plays this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears offense looked quite a bit better last weekend despite playing in less than ideal weather conditions. Justin Fields clearly is the quarterback you want starting if you want potential for points. He has bigger downfield passing potential, but he also can make some mistakes that give the other team a short field sometimes. 

The Las Vegas Raiders offense has been very good this year. Derek Carr has big playmakers in the passing game. The Bears defense is an average or slightly below average unit now. Akiem Hicks is out for this one and Khalil Mack is questionable. Those are key injuries. Las Vegas should have chances to put together some great drives.

Early season games in domes have been good over bets in the NFL especially at low totals. This one fits the bill.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* There will be a bunch of running the football in this game. Nebraska is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Michigan is running the ball on 71% of their plays this year. A moving clock is certainly a good thing for the under.

Michigan's running attack has been good, but they haven't played many good run defenses. I think Nebraska is underrated in the front seven on defense. The Cornhuskers have been much better than expected this year on defense. Michigan scored just 20 points against Rutgers and they averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Wisconsin a week ago. 

Nebraska's running attack has been good as well, but Michigan is likely to be in the backfield a lot here. The Cornhuskers offensive line has been overwhelmed by the best defensive lines they have faced this season. Nebraska consistently struggles in the red zone because of questionable play calling and poor decisions from Adrian Martinez.

Both teams are good teams, and I expect a hard fought contest here. Look for plenty of field goals instead of touchdowns to help as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The final score when these two played last year was Buffalo 70 and Kent State 41. Do I expect something like that again? No. I do think this one has a good chance to go over the total though.

Kent State's offensive numbers are skewed down because of the defenses they have played. None of their FBS opponents this year rank lower than 42nd in the country in yards per play allowed. Buffalo ranks 87th so this is a big step down in class. Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense should get going here. Kent State ranks 9th in the country in tempo, and they will playing uptempo the whole way here.

Buffalo's pace of play this year has really surprised me. They rank a very fast 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bulls have been more aggressive with their play calling of late. Kent State's defense is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Golden Flashes rank 130th out of 130 teams in the country in opponent passing play success rate. This Kent State defense is terrible.

This number is lower than it should be because of the opponents this offenses have played. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars offense isn't working well. Jayden De Laura looks like he has regressed and the team around him hasn't helped. The offensive line is a problem and the play calling has been questionable. Washington State ranks 104th in offensive explosiveness on the season thus far.

Oregon State's offense is good, but they move the ball slowly up the field. Nolan has been great as a game manager for the Beavers. This offensive scheme is very good, but they move slowly and don't try for big plays often. Oregon State ranks 99th in offensive explosiveness. The Washington State defense is coming off back to back strong showings in the last two weeks.

Washington State ranks 90th out of 130 in the country in pace of play. Oregon State ranks 104th in pace of play. 

The weather here looks a bit shaky as well. The wind is forecast to be sustained at about 13 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers don't know who will start at quarterback this week. Whether it is Graham Mertz or Chase Wolf though, the passing game is terrible. Wisconsin is completely reliant on the run. Strangely, this Wisconsin offensive line hasn't been good this year. The Badgers are averaging just 3.77 yards per carry which is 88th best in the country. Wisconsin always plays slowly and they are doing that again this year. 

It would be easy to think Wisconsin's defense isn't very good when you see the scores they allowed they last two weeks. That isn't true at all. The Badgers rank 1st in the country in yards per carry allowed. Overall, Wisconsin ranks 3rd in success rate allowed. This is an excellent defense. 

Illinois is reliant on running the football too. They don't have enough playmakers to throw it around and their offense is all about the run with Bielema as their coach. Illinois ranks 109th in the nation in yards per play. The Fighting Illini offense is a clear weakness. 

Illinois has 20-17, 13-9, and 24-14 games in their last three contests. The Charlotte game (24-14) says a lot since Charlotte is a very weak defense. 

I don't think either of these two will push the pace, and I expect a lot of running and solid defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Georgia has allowed one offensive touchdown in five games. That is just insane. This Georgia defense is so much better than any other defense in the country right now it is just crazy. They rank 1st in yards per play allowed. They rank 1st in success rate on defense. They rank first at preventing explosive plays. 

Auburn had a nice win at LSU last week, but LSU's defense is a weakness. Bo Nix and his magic he pulled off in Baton Rouge isn't likely to work against this staunch Georgia defense. 

The Georgia offense still has some question marks. Both quarterbacks are banged up. Bennett is likely to be the starter here, and the game plan is generally more conservative with him under center. Georgia ranks only 112th in offensive explosiveness. They also rank 117th out of 130 in pace of play.

Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per carry on the year, and Georgia runs the ball on 62% of their offensive plays.

This one should be a hard fought contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos both have a lot of key injuries. Glasnow is out on the offensive line for the Broncos. Risner is questionable as well and the Ravens certainly like to bring a lot of pressure.

Lamar Jackson is questionable but is expected to play for the Ravens. Baltimore star lineman Ronnie Staley is out here and this Broncos pass rush should be able to get to Jackson here. Villaneuva is also banged up on the offensive line. 

Marlon Humphrey is likely to play here and he is one of the most talented corners in the game. 

The Denver defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have certainly played a fairly easy schedule of offenses so far, but this is definitely a good defense. 

Denver's offense ranks 32nd in the NFL in pace of play. The Broncos are running the ball 4th most of any team in the NFL.

Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in pace of play. They are running the ball third most of any team in the NFL.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts were thought to have an average or slightly above average defense before the season. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Take a look at the 3 offenses they have faced this year though: Seattle, LA Rams, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three excellent offenses who will put up big numbers on a lot of teams. Miami is without Tua here and this is a huge step down in class for the Colts defense.

Miami put up 3.1 ypp against the Bills two games ago. They put up only 4.2 ypp against a subpar Raiders defense last week. The Dolphins don't have an explosive offense in their current state.

The Dolphins do have a very good defense though. They will be up against a badly banged up Carson Wentz and a Colts offense that lacks top end skill position talent. Miami's secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

Look for a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense has looked terrible this year. Matt Ryan appears to be falling off quickly at quarterback. It obviously hurts that Julio Jones is no longer here, but Ryan's arm strength isn't even close to what it was a few years ago. 

Atlanta is 29th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They rank 32nd in DVOA so far this season on offense. Atlanta is a mess offensively and it starts with a terrible offensive line. The Falcons have what might be the worst offensive line in football.

Washington's defensive front hasn't played nearly as well as expected so far this year, but Washington has a great chance to cause this Atlanta offensive line a lot of trouble in this game. Washington has been hearing about their underperformance on the defensive line, and I think they show up and give the Falcons a lot of trouble here.

Taylor Heinicke has had issues with bad turnovers of late. I think Washington is likely to play it safe more often with him this week hoping to keep the turnovers to a minimum. A more conservative game plan and a slower pace of play is likely.

Both offenses have a bunch of question marks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP offense is quite a bit better than they were a few years ago. UTEP is averaging 6.11 yards per play (48th best in the nation). The Miners rank 17th best in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett are very good playmakers on the outside. Cowing is averaging a stunning 23.4 yards per reception this year.

Old Dominion ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Monarchs aren't a good team. The one thing they have been able to do pretty well this year is run the football. Old Dominion ranks 28th in the nation in rushing success rate. UTEP is a mediocre run defense and the Monarchs should be able to move the ball some on the ground here.

It's rare to find a total below the key number of 49 where you have one team playing quickly and the other team being explosive on offense. I don't think this number should be this low. Sure this is a sloppy game between two teams who have been bad in recent years. Still, there are plenty of reasons to think there should be some points here. The weather looks good for this contest as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are running an air raid with Bailey Zappe and his offensive coordinator from last year at Houston Baptist. How's it looking so far? The early results have been great. The Hilltoppers are third in the nation in yards per play at 8.27. They are 4th in the nation in passing plays success rate at 55.65%. The tempo has been very fast. Western Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in tempo.

Michigan State's offense is light years better than they were last year. Walker is tremendous at running back. The Spartans are averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the year. That should be a big problem for a Western Kentucky team that is allowing 4.81 yards per carry (106th out of 130 in the country). In fact, Western Kentucky rates 125th out of 130 in the nation in defensive rushing plays success rate. The Spartans passing attack has been solid with Payton Thorne as well. They have picked up the pace significantly this season. The Spartans are 32nd out of 130 teams in the country in tempo.

Western Kentucky has thrown the ball on 65.2% of their offensive plays so far this year. They'll air it out and play fast here. Michigan State will gash Western Kentucky on the ground and mix in some successful passing plays as well.

The pace here should be very quick all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a way of making games ugly and low scoring. Northwestern's defense isn't quite as strong as it has been in most recent seasons, but I do think they will improve in Big Ten play as they usually do under defensive minded Pat Fitzgerald.

The Northwestern offense lost their starting running back, and against a good defensive front like Nebraska that should be a problem. Ryan Hilinski played well against Ohio last week, but Ohio is terrible defensively. This is a big step up in class against a Nebraska defense that allowed only 12 first downs last week against a solid Michigan State team.

Nebraska is fairly conservative on offense. They will run the football most of the time. I expect them to play from the lead and they have shown to get much more run heavy when playing from the lead.

The last couple years these two teams have played games that ended 13-10 and 21-13. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames haven't been quite as good offensively this year. The offensive line has been weak in pass blocking. Liberty has already allowed 14 sacks already this year. 

The Flames have also slowed their pace down drastically. A couple years ago this team was playing very quickly, but they sit 121st in the nation in tempo so far this year. They are running the football on 64% of their offensive snaps.

UAB ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers are running the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps. The Blazers are going up against a Liberty defensive front that is 20th in the nation in yards per carry allowed so far this year. The Liberty secondary is a bit weak, but their front seven defensively is very solid.

With two teams playing very slowly and running the ball a lot, we should see a lot of running clock in this game. 

Look for a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have reinvented their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They now play extremely fast. Tulane ranks 8th in the country in tempo so far this year. The Green Wave will push the pace here and try to get as many possessions as possible. 

East Carolina ranks 119th in yards per play allowed this year. PFF grades them as the 25th worst defense in the country. Tulane should get a lot of big gainers in this one. 

Tulane's defense is struggling a bit because of their faster paced offense. The Green Wave rank 95th in yards per play allowed and PFF grades them as the 20th worst defense in the country. 

East Carolina ranks 46th in the nation in tempo so they play fast as well. The Pirates have enough playmakers to get up and down the field against Tulane here.

The tempo here should be very fast and we have two bottom 25 defenses in the country.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tanner Morgan looks lost at QB. I don’t think PJ Fleck trusts him now and it is hard to blame him. Turnover worthy play on 6 percent of plays so far this year. In Minnesota’s last 3 games, Morgan has 17, 17, and 13 passes attempted. He likely won't throw it many times here. That kind of pace with a ton of running plays is going to bleed a lot of clock. They rank 129th out of 130 teams in tempo in the country, so Minnesota is playing so slowly.

Purdue’s offense ranks 87th in yards per play this year. David Bell is a superstar WR for Purdue and he is questionable for this game. Purdue averages just 2.91 ypc and they are shorthanded when it comes to weapons on offense. The Purdue defense has been impressive this year. The Boilermakers are 30th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed on defense. Minnesota isn't likely to be efficient against this group.

The Minnesota defense gave up only 1.4 yards per play against Colorado and only 3.1 yards per play against Bowling Green last week.

There are winds of 12-15 mph and a slight chance of showers in the forecast.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. 

LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here.

North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time.

A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. 

Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front.

Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run.

A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well.

Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal.

UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary.

This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. 

Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already.

The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year.

This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season.

Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). 

The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean.

With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. 

Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. 

The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. 

The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely.

This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago.

Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him.

Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary.

The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. 

The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. 

On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect.

New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. 

The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. 

Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. 

The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under.

Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. 

Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game.

Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game.

On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses.

This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback.

Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin.

Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. 

Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. 

East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. 

East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years.

The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. 

Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. 

The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. 

A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over.

Take the over here.