Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

Over in the Detroit Lions/Carolina Panthers matchup.

Well folks, what do you get when you put together two amazing scoring offenses along with two defenses that rank among the worst in the league? I’ll tell you what you get… you get a high-scoring affair. That’s right, the Detroit Lions offense ranks in the top-10 in just about every major category averaging over 31.0 points per game. The Carolina Panthers offense ranks in the top-10 also in just about every major offensive category, posting over 29.7 PPG. I will admit the Lion’s offense is a little more well-balanced and will lean heavily on their ground attack here against the league’s worst rushing defense. That’s right, the Panthers run defense ranks 32nd in the league, getting plowed for nearly 200 yards per game on the ground (193.3 YPG). Now on the flipside, Carolina owns the top-passing unit in the NFL and line up here tonight against the worst pass defense in football. Detroit ranks 32nd in the league against the pass yielding 299.3 YPG in the air. The last two meeting between these two NFC rivals have both flown over the total accounting for 60 and 66 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if this match up tonight results in just as many or more points than the two previous meetings. By the way, all three of the Lions games this season have gone over the total. This game will go over the total. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

Yes, it’s true. Traditionally, these two teams play each other very tough. But these are two very different teams this season. The Bengals are already off to 2-0 start both SU and ATS while the Steelers have split out their games already going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The Cincinnati offense is clicking on all cylinders lighting up teams for over 26.5 PPG and committing very few mistakes. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh offense is struggling ranking 31st in scoring, averaging just 11.5 PPG, coughing the ball up three times, and rank 29th both in passing and rushing yards. I believe this is a matchup their defense will lose in the trenches and be fatigued come the second half. Their once-feared stop unit is giving up a lot of yards on the ground, which does not bode well for this team here. I look for the Bengals to pound the ball up the middle on the ground to open up their passing game for a very impressive Joe Burrow. On the flipside, the aging Aaron Rodgers is looking his age. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Take the Cincinnati Bengals. Thank you.

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Buffalo Bills.

Things aren’t looking too good for the Chargers right now and I think things are going to go from bad to worse for this team. Going back to last season this team has now lost and failed to cover five consecutive games. Let’s face it, my friends, so far this season they haven’t played the cream of the NFL crop going up against the Cardinals and the Raiders and only averaging 14 points per game in both and coincidentally yielding 26 points per game in both. Now they must go into Orchard Park in the brand-new Highmark Stadium to face an explosive Buffalo Bills team that is undefeated thus far both straight up and against the number. They have taken down both the Texans and the Lions with authority sporting an offense topping the NFL averaging 38.5 PPG, ranking in the top five in most every major offensive category, and failing to turn the ball over at all. Granted, their defense has allowed a lot of points. But in their defense (no pun intended, lol), they’ve played some pretty good offenses. Los Angeles must travel all the way east for aa 1 PM EST kickoff. Any way you look at this game, the Bills are the play. Even if the Chargers were playing well, they do not have the talent to keep pace with the 1-2 punch of Josh Allan and James Cook. Take the Buffalo Bills. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Many times, in the NFL we worry about a team being favored on the road. Well, I’m here to tell you the Seattle Seahawks are a covering machine even when they travel going 9-1 ATS their last 10 games played in the regular season on the road. Their offense is clicking on all cylinders and making very few mistakes, while their defense is absolutely ferocious. This does not bode well for a Washington Commanders squad has yet to win a game this season, and comes in here with injury issues. With quarterback, Daniels sidelined, it looks like Mariotta will take the helm. The once elusive play-caller did well for the team last season filling in for their starter. But he’s another year older and is not that dual-threat that he once was. Meanwhile, the Seahawks behind quarterback, Lock are looking really strong. Please remember this team had 17 starters return from last year’s Super Bowl Champion squad. And they picked up just where they left off. As impressive as their “O” has been, it is their defense that I believe will shine here against the lackluster Commanders “O”. Please remember the Seahawks “D” has allowed 17 points total to Drake May and Jacoby Brissett. The Seahawks will win and get a big ATS cover here as well. Take Seattle. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, we all know both Seattle and New England were not favored to be in the Super Bowl this season. But yet, they both deserve to be here. The Seahawks are 16-3 overall this season, while the Patriots possess a 17-3 record. Both teams have covered 14 games this season, and both are excellent playing away from home. Seattle enters this matchup winning nine consecutive games and covering six of their last eight, while New England has won six in a row, covering five of those six. Both offenses are explosive, and both defenses are among the best in the NFL. There is no question that there are a few things that certainly stand out to me. For starters, Seattle has a much more experienced and seasoned quarterback, especially in the postseason than does New England. Sam Darnold started in this league in 2018, and has over 90 starts under his belt, while Drake Maye has just 29 starts at the helm. I'm not looking to take away anything from Maye’s talent or ability, but when you get to this platform, experience especially in the postseason plays a big part. Both offenses have solid ground games, and an arsenal of receivers. I do feel, the more complete running back lines up in the Seahawks backfield in Kenneth Walker III. As I mentioned a moment ago, both defenses are among the best in the league. But the Seahawks stop-unit is a lot stronger against the run, which tells me they can force some three-and-outs. One more thing my friends, the Seattle defense has also snagged 18 takeaways to just 10 takeaways for the New England "D". I believe this game will be won with experience, a solid ground game, the defense that is better against the run, and the stop-unit that forces more turnovers. And in my opinion, all those point to the Seattle Seahawks. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Early Info Play.

Game 104.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Very simply, I feel the Rams are outclassed in this matchup. While they deserve to be here, let's face it, this is a team that falls a little short, especially when they travel failing to cover three straight road games, and four of the last five games played as a visitor. They must now go into one of the loudest and craziest stadiums in all of sports to try to compete, and I do feel they're going to fall way short. Not only do the Seahawks come in here red-hot, winning eight consecutive games, they have also covered three in a row and seven of their last 10 overall outings. Yes, Los Angeles possesses one of the top scoring offenses in all of the NFL, but they make a lot of mistakes, and they are going up a very stingy defense that only yields 17.2 PPG. Defensively, they must face a very well-balanced offense, equally explosive in the air as they are on the ground. And let's not forget the Seattle offense averages over 28.4 PPG, themselves. They have the ground game to control the clock, and are much tougher against the run. I feel they will force the Rams offense into a lot of three-and-outs, and force some mistakes as well. Take the Seahawks. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 473.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West for nearly a decade. That's right, they have won nine consecutive division titles. But this season they sit just 5-4 overall, while the Denver Broncos, at 8-2 own a significant lead in the division. Overall, the Broncos are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season. But this is a big situation for the Chiefs. And we all know outside of last year’s Super Bowl this team comes up huge in big-game situations. Put a pin in that, we're going to come back around to it. The Denver Broncos are red-hot, winning seven consecutive games in which they covered four of the seven. Five of those seven games were won by four points or less. And to be quite honest with you, their quarterback is putting up less than stellar numbers. They're doing it with a very strong defense. They're not passing the ball with great efficiency, and they're turning the ball over, a lot. They had a few extra days to rest and prepare for this matchup. Coming off a full bye week, the Chief suffered their first defeat in a while, a heartbreaking road loss at the hands of their AFC rival, the Buffalo Bills. As a matter of fact, prior to that loss, they had been on a 5-1 SU/ATS hot streak. I feel getting the extra time off to rest, heal, and prepare, coming off the bad loss against their hated rival, and knowing they need this game in the division, gives the visitor a big edge. But the edges don't stop there, my friends. If you recall, the last time these two teams met was back in the first week of January last season. Kansas City had pulled all their starters from the road game, and watched as Denver took advantage of it, and thrashed them 38-0. I'm sure that did not sit well with the team. KC, we'll be without starting running back, Isaiah Pacheco. But not to worry, they have a couple of able backups. They are also led by the most successful quarterback in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes, who heads up the fifth-ranked passing attack in the league. They make very few mistakes, and are equally balanced. Their defense, believe it or not, is just as good, yielding to 17.7 PPG. Let me ask you a question, folks. If you have a choice between Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix in a big game, must-win situation, who would you choose? Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

NFC Best Bet.

Game 269.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

They say revenge is a dish best serve cold. Well, my friends, last year's dream season for Detroit ended abruptly at home at Ford Field, losing to Washington, 45-31. The Lions couldn't do anything right in that game, and their dream season was over. I also feel following last week’s lackluster performance in which they lost also at home, to the Vikings 27-24, will prompt them to bounce back here in a big way. As a matter of fact, they dropped two of their last three games, cand I'm sure head coach, Dan Campbell read them the riot act after the most recent. Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are sliding badly, losing and failing to cover their last four outings, which does include both games played at home during that span. Their offense has stalled, and their defense is overworked, tired, and getting lit up. This is a lot of points, I admit. But getting Detroit off of an ugly loss in which they couldn't run the ball, I expect them to come out here with something to prove, and prove it especially against a Washington stop-unit, that can't stop anyone. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

NFC West Game of the Week.

Game 268.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

The Seahawks are currently tied with the Rams at 6-2 in the NFC West. Just behind them is the 49ers at 6-3, and bringing up the rear is the Cardinals at 3-5. Division wins are big right now, my friends. The Cardinals have had trouble with just about everybody this season, but specifically within the NFC West where they are winless at 0-2. Having said that, they do come off a little bit shorter of a week, and I feel are in a letdown situation following the November 3 road victory over the Cowboys, 27-17. It was their third straight cover but their first straight up victory since mid-September. It is true, the Seahawks have had their way with them, taking eight consecutive meetings and covering seven of the eight. This includes a September 25 matchup on the road, 23-20, as a small 1.5-point favorite. Obviously, the line is a little bit bigger here because they're playing in one of the most difficult places for a visitor to play, Lumen Field. This is interesting because Seattle, as you know has won six of their last seven games both SU/ATS. During their last three outings, all wins and covers, their defense has yielded an average as of 15.0 PPG. Overall, they rank fifth in the NFL in points allowed, second in rushing yards allowed, and fourth in takeaways. Arizona is having problems putting points on the board to begin with, and I think it's going to go from bad to worse for them here. On the offensive side of the ball, look for Seattle and their surging offense, which ranked fifth in scoring to absolutely pick apart their opponents 23rd-ranked pass defense. Sam Donald is one of the best gunslingers in the NFL. He heads up the fourth-ranked passing attack, and like I said, this will be probably his best performance statistically so far this season. Take the Seahawks. Thank you.

Chicago Bears.

High Roller release.

Game 266.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

My friends, maybe the Bears win ugly, but they are still winning. No, they don't do it pretty at all, they don't do it graceful at all, but they are finding new and improved ways to come out victorious. Over the last month and a half, they have won and covered five of their six outings. They have also won and covered both games played on their own field during that span. Meanwhile, the Giants which are just 2-7 overall, and are winless at 0-5 as a visitor this season, riding an overall three-game SU slide, in which they failed to cover the last two outings. They are just 2-3 ATS as a guest in 2025. I will admit, their last three opponents were all solid squads in the Broncos, Eagles, and 49ers. But this team just can't do anything right, and their defense is getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Don't ask me how, but the Chicago offense ranks sixth in the league in scoring, accounting for over 26.9 points per game, and have only turned the ball over six times. They rank in the top-10 both in passing and in rushing. That would be enough for me my friends. I am aware their defense is one of the most porous in the NFL, but they've also forced 13 turnovers, which tops the league. I feel you're going to see the Chicago team run the ball, run the ball, run the ball and tire out the New York already overworked 31st ranked run defense. They will control the clock and the tempo, move the chains, and win and cover this game. Take the Bears. Thank you.

Play: Seattle

Seattle is striding. The Seahawks sit atop the NFC West at 5-2, tied with the Rams. This team is red-hot. They have won and covered five of their last six outings, and enter this matchup coming off a bye week. They had the luxury of extra time to rest, heal, and prepare for this matchup. There was a time the Seahawks weakness was traveling. However, this season there are perfect 3-0, both straight up and against the spread as a visitor. The Washington Commanders team are falling way short of expectations. Washington was supposed to be a true force in the NFC this season, and compete for the division crown. However, they are just 3-5 straight up and against the spread, riding a three-game loss and no cover streak. Yes, they are 2-1 at home this season. But those three games were played against the Giants, Raiders, and Bears. While they do have a solid ground game. Their passing attack is horrible, and they've committed 10 turnovers already. That would be bad enough, but their defense is getting steamrolled, both in the air or on the ground. On the flipside the Seahawks possess the sixth-rank scoring offense in the league, and the seventh-ranked scoring defense. They will counter their opponents solid ground game with the #1 run defense in football. Seattle stays victorious and gets another conference victory. Take the Seahawks.

Play: Patriots

Very quietly, the New England Patriots have taken control of the AFC East, and overall, possess one of the conference's best records. At 6-2, the Patriots are becoming a force to be reckoned with. They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL as well, winning and covering five straight games, which does include both games played at home during that span. Meanwhile, a lot was expected of the Atlanta Falcons this season, and they are falling way short of expectations. They're just 3-4 overall, and come off back-to-back losses and no covers. Overall, their defense isn't too bad. But their offense is so horrible, they are getting off the field so quick, that their defense is overworked and fatigued. They account for a dismal, 17.1 points per game. You know what’s funny? Statistically speaking, they can pass the ball, and they can run the ball. But they just can't find a way to get it in the end zone. Meanwhile, Drake Maye very quietly leads the ninth-rank passing attack in the NFL. He does have a solid rushing attack, and let's not forget about the leagues fourth-ranked defense. They are allowing a mere 18.3 PPG. Ride a hot team, and fade a cold one. Take the Patriots. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFC SOUTH GOM.

Game 275.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

With all respect to New Orleans Saints fans, this is one of the worst teams in football. Not much was expected of this team this season, and yet they are still under achieving. They rank 29th in scoring in 27th on defense. Sitting at 1-6 already, and only covering two of their seven outings, this team cannot wait for the end of the regular season LOL. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are perched atop the competitive NFC South at 5-2. This is a team that's won three of their four road games this season, and look to get back on track following an embarrassing loss just six days ago on the road at the Lions. Prior to that they took down two solid opponents in the Seahawks and the 49ers.This is a team that has a lot of talent, they can pass the ball, make very few mistakes, and possess a solid defense. Coming off that loss last week, they know they need to get back on track with a big victory here, and what better team to face than the lowly Saints. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you.

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New England Patriots.

BEST BET.

Game 274.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Cleveland Browns have dropped five of their seven outings this season, including all three games played on the road in which they have failed to cover all three of those games as well. Yes, they got a victory a week ago at home against the Miami Dolphins. But I think we can all agree, the Dolphins, who sit at just 1-6 this season, are not a very good team. I feel the Browns come back down to Earth this week as they go into Foxborough to face the surging Patriots, who are riding a four-game win and cover streak. Just going by the numbers, New England accounts for 9.8 points per game more on offense, while yielding 2.7 points per game less on defense. Offensively, the Browns pose very little threat. They rank at or near the bottom in every major offensive category. Yes, they do possess a decent defense. But I just don't see them slowing down a New England opponent playing at home, riding a hot streak, and accounting for 32.7 PPG during that span. Take the Patriots. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

NFC EAST GOM.

Game 272.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Money is starting to come in on the New York Giants, and I understand why. They have split out their last four games, covering three of those four, and have a new attitude it seems. And yes, they did take down this very same Philadelphia Eagles opponent just 17 days ago at home, 34-17. But I'm here to tell you that revenge is a dish best served cold. The defending Super Bowl Champions are 5-2 this season, and began the campaign winning for their first four outings. They lost back-to-back games against the Denver Broncos and as I mentioned a moment ago, the New York Giants before last week’s road win and cover over the Vikings. This is a division game in which the Eagles definitely need. Currently the only team in the NFC East that possesses a winning record against the division opponents is the 2nd place, Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles know they must win this game this week, and even more furthermore, want this victory to exact revenge from the embarrassing loss a few weeks back. I think the Giants are a good story this season, generating some excitement in the New York area. But this is a team that posts just 21.9 PG, while allowing 25.3 PPG. The offense has committed nine turnovers, while their defense does not strike fear in any opponent. On the other hand, the Eagles numbers are slightly better. They're rushing game, there once explosive rushing game has sputtered. But this is a team with a lot of talent, a lot of pride, and a smart coaching staff. They will get their revenge, and get a well needed division victory. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

Game 471.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

There was a lot expected of the Green Bay Packers this season. With six games played in the regular season, they are living up to expectations. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals are riding a four-game straight up losing streak and I've only covered two of their last five contests. It's true, the Packers have failed to cover their last three outings. But there's a few things that really make me feel strongly that they are going to crush the Arizona Cardinals tonight. First of all, Arizona has a laundry list of injuries. Even if some of their key names do start, they're not going to be 100%. In all sincerity, the Cardinals offense leaves a lot to be desired. They have problems rushing the ball, and their passing game is almost nonexistent. Their defense is mediocre, and they certainly don't strike fear in any opponent’s offenses. Speaking of which, in come the Packers, who rank in the top 10 in just about every major offensive category. But even more importantly, they rarely turn the ball over. That would be enough, but their defense has played extremely well this season, ranking number one against the rush, number 11 against the pass, number five in total yards allowed, and number 10 in points allowed. Take Green Bay. Thank you.

New England Patriots.

Game 457.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Winners of a three in a row, the New England Patriots have now taken control of the AFC East. Things are starting to come together for the team. You really can't say too many good things about their opponent. Tennessee is just 1-5, and just can't seem to cross the goal line. They rank 31st in the league in scoring, averaging a dismal 13.8 PPG. They've committed 10 turnovers. To be quite honest, they either rank 31st or 32nd in just about every major offensive category. Quarterback, Drake Maye leads one of the top passing offenses in the NFL and is starting to really come into his own. Defensively, this team has tightened up quite a bit this season and are playing great football. They are one of the best in the league against the rush, and are only allowing 20.0 PPG. The Patriots keep winning. Take New England. Thank you.

Colts.

NL PLAY.

Game 468.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

With all respect to my hometown Raiders, they are a really bad football team. Listen folks, you could have a new coach, you could have a new quarterback, you could bring in a new running back, but if the system is flawed, don’t expect any improvements. The Colts are a very good team. They won and covered the first three games of the season prior to last week's heartbreaking tough late loss at the hands of the Rams. I think they bounce back here with something to prove. Raiders only account for a dismal 19.3 points per game, and have committed eight turnovers already on offense. Their defense is horrible, it's overworked… fatigued…. and beatable…very beatable. How are they going to deal with the well-balanced 1-2 punch of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor? It is just not possible. They cannot keep pace on the scoreboard with Jones, Taylor, and the 4th ranked scoring offense in the NFL, accounting for over 30-8 PPG. This line should be closer to double-digits. Lay it, take the Colts, and take your bookmakers money folks. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

LATE BAILOUT.

Game 275.

5:20 PM PST/820 PM EST.

Green Bay has dominated Dallas, winning and covering five consecutive meetings in this NFC rivalry. They also come off their first defeat of the season, a heartbreaking road loss at the hands of Cleveland, 13-10. They will come in here angry, and motivated. Did I forget to mention they are also 5-0 at AT&T Stadium? Hmm. The Cowboys have talent. It’s just that much of their talent are sidelined with injuries, and they don't have the depth to replenish those missing players. Speaking of missing players, Micah Parsons makes his return to Dallas. To say he is missed on the defensive side of the ball, would be an understatement. This team now ranks 32nd against the pass, and is getting plowed for over 30.7-points per game, and has only one takeaway. On the flipside, they do have some weapons on offense, and they can score points. But they've also stepped on their own toes quite a few times, committing six turnovers. Green Bay doesn't make too many mistakes, and owns a defense giving up just 14.7 PPG. Jordan Love shines, while Micah Parsons makes Dallas really regret his departure. Take the Packers. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

GOM.

Game 265.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The big news this week for the 0-3 New York Giants, they move on from Russell Wilson to Jaxson Dart. Without putting pressure on the rookie quarterback, the offense has nowhere to go but up. They rank ninth in passing, 22nd in rushing, 12th in total yards, 27th and points scored, and have already turned the ball over three times. The Giants have no running game to keep defenses honest, or even control the clock, resulting in an overworked, and beaten defense. The New York stop-unit (if you can call that), ranks among the worst in the league just about every major category. Now they have to go up against Justin Herbert and one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Los Angeles did lose RB, Najee Harris. But backup, Omarion Hampton has what it takes to fill in quite nicely. That would be enough. But the Chargers defense is one of the best in football in every aspect. They are equally strong against the pass, and the rush, and only allow 16.7 PPG. Granted, Jim Harbaugh's team is dealing with some injuries themselves. But they have enough depth and talent to win big here. I am not worried about a West Coast team flying east and playing an early game either. I feel they are throwing the young, Dart to the wolves here. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Indianapolis Colts.

GOM.

Game 451.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Football fans, the Indianapolis Colts are for real. They are only one of four undefeated teams in the AFC, and have already separated themselves from the rest of their division. Sitting at 2-0, the Colts are the only team in the South that possess a winning record. The Jaguars are 1-1, while the Texans and Titans are both winless at 0-2. This is a perfect opportunity for them to further distance themselves from the rest of the division. They enter this matchup with decisive victories over the Dolphins, and the Broncos. They have not just won, but covered both games already thus far this season as well. They will be entering this division matchup with confidence, knowing they have taken the last four meetings with the Titans, both straight up, and against the spread. The last two seasons they swept both series, my friends. Speaking of the Titans, going back to last season they've now lost eight consecutive games, only covering one of those eight contests. They possess an offense that is non-existent, accounting for an average of a mere 15.5 points per game thus far. Their defense has been getting blown out. But this is nothing new for Tennessee. Going back to last season, they have possessed one of the worst defenses in the league. Many out there are may question a dome team (retractable roof) going outside for the first time. But you don't have to be. Indianapolis will continue to pound the ball on the ground, and then pass off the run. This does not bode well for a Tennessee defense that ranks 30th in yards per rush allowed on the ground. On the flipside, the Titans offense has sputtered badly, as I mentioned earlier. Cam Ward has not been sufficient at all, barely completing 50% of his passes. They really have no passing game, and can hardly move the ball on the ground, to make matters worse. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense is keeping opponents to under 100 yards per game rushing, and just under 170 yards per game in the air. They've also snagged three takeaways already, while not turning the ball over at all. That is huge in a matchup like this. Especially because their opponent has already turned the ball over three times. Look for Jonathan Taylor to absolutely run amok on the ground, and allow Daniel Jones to open up the passing game. This game gets ugly. Take the Indianapolis Colts. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

Touchdown play.

Game 258.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Whenever NFC East teams face one another, it usually makes for an interesting contest. The Dallas Cowboys played very well in their season-opener last week on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles. To be honest with you, they stepped on their own foot a few times which led to that loss. Had they not made the mistakes that they made, they would've probably won that game. But the Cowboys are the Cowboys (lol). Having said that, they still held their own against the well-balanced defending Super Bowl champions. They face a New York Giants opponent that fell short in their first game of the campaign on the road at the Washington Commanders. But when your quarterback, you're aging quarterback I should add, is your leading rusher, how much offense can you possibly produce? Maybe people bet the Giants last week because they won and covered all three of their preseason games. But that was preseason, and this is the regular season. Once again, they have an offense that just can't score points. Outside of a late season victory last year against an Indianapolis Colts team which happened to pull all their starters, this team had not topped 20 points going back until the first week of last October. The Dallas defense leaves a lot to be desired. Especially without Micah Parsons wreaking havoc. But the New York offense just isn't built to exploit their opponents defense here. How about a little history folks? Dallas has taken eight consecutive meetings in this rivalry, going 7-1 against the number during that span. Playing at home in front of their loyal fans following a season opening loss will further motivate the Cowboys to put a hurting on the Giants here. By the way, one more ATS trend for you stat freaks out there, Dallas is 30-12 against the spread facing NFC opponents with Dak Prescott under center. This line should be higher. Take the Cowboys and take your bookmaker's money.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Thursday Night Winner.

Game 452.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

This isn't just a big game for the Eagles as far as the division goes. Yes, they can jump ahead of a division rival here with a big victory. This is also the first game of the season for the defending Super Bowl Champions to make a statement to the rest of the NFC that they are once again a true force in the conference. This is one of the most complete teams in all the football, my friends. For the Cowboys, as usual, there is excitement coming out of their fan base. But this happens every year. A season ago they finished with just seven wins. They lost and failed to cover both matchups with Philadelphia, being outscored by a combined, 75-13. As a matter of fact, the Eagles have won and covered three of the last four meetings with the Cowboys, which does include both games played at Lincoln Financial Field. I expect Philly to do what they do, run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, and then pass off the run. With the news of Micah Parsons departure from Dallas, the line moved a bit here. Trust me when I tell you, the Cowboys defense is in real trouble tonight. You may remember a season ago Dak Prescott missed both matchups played in this rivalry, and Philadelphia did lose a couple of key starters on the defensive side of the ball in the off-season. But they have the offense, particularly the running game, to grind down their opponent’s defense here tonight, kill the clock, and control the tempo. It's a big number. But I still like the Eagles. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs on the MONEYLINE.

Game 109.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Sports fans, don't overthink the Super Bowl. I'm gonna’ keep this analysis just like me, very short, and extremely sweet (Lol). Philadelphia has better numbers in most categories, and yet they are made and underdog here. HMM. Let's start with the regular season matchup. Yes, the Eagles prevailed. However, it wasn't a game the Chiefs needed. In that game though, K.C. jumped out to a lead in the first half, only to see Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce each commit costly turnovers in the second half, resulting in a loss. Kansas City doesn't make a lot of mistakes, and they certainly don't make a lot of mistakes in big game situations. We all know the Philadelphia defense is a monster stop-unit. But everybody is selling short how good the Chiefs defense really is. And looking at their schedules this season, they had given up less big points in games than the Philly defense had. Yes, Saquon Barkley is an outstanding ball-carrier. He will get his yards here. But once again, the Kansas City “D” against the rush is one of the best in football. Please remember Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are successful in big game situations. Speaking of coaching, the Eagles defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio is 0-8 against Mahomes over his coaching career. Let's go back to the last time these two met for the Lombardi Trophy, back in Super Bowl 57. Jalen Hurts had without question the best game of his career…and still lost. What does this tell you about the Chiefs? One more item I want you to know guys. Travis Kelce, who is Mahomes’ "go-to" guy, was very quiet in the AFC Title game against Buffalo. I look for him to have a monster performance here. This time of year, you do not go against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, or the Kansas City Chiefs. But just to err on the side of caution, take K.C. on the moneyline. Thank you.

PROPS

As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which WAS BACK IN THE DAY the only real PROPS offer of the season), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you'll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn't give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you're serious about making money, be disciplined. Here are props that I really feel strongly about:

YES WILL KELCE SCORE A TD +120

YES WILL MAHOMES SCORE A TD +350

YES WILLL BARKLEY SCORE A TD -200

YES WILL BOTH TEAMS HAVE THE LEAD in the 1st HALF +140

YES WILL THERE BE A LEAD CHANGE in the 4th QTR +235

YES WILL THE GAME BE TIED AFTER 0-0

-110

YES WILL THERE BE A ST OR DEFENSIVE TD +260

YES WILL THERE BE A FG IN 1st QTR -110

Kansas City Chiefs on the MONEY LINE.

Game 104.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Once again, early money is coming in on the Buffalo Bills. And I'm here to tell you the general public is once again going to lose. Say what you want about the Bills. But until Josh Allen steps up when the season is on the line… wink wink nudge nudge… and delivers, he is a go against. One thing Allen doesn't do is, fail to make mistakes in big game situations. He might have the physical tools. But the mental tools certainly elude him. Yes, this is a good team. And yes, they shredded both teams they played this postseason. But they haven't had to play a game on the road in the playoffs yet. And playing in Arrowhead is no small task. Speaking of the Chiefs, I keep hearing that their offense is subpar. But yet this team still won 15 games this season. Mind you, outside of their last regular season game in which they pulled their first and second string players, the only lost they suffered was against the Bills in which they did not need to win. This is a money team. They know when they need to step up and when they do not. They had the conference handled and intact. Patrick Mahomes has more big game wins than anybody in the NFL today. As a matter of fact, he's got more playoff wins than just about anybody, off the top of my head. He does what it takes to win. Yes, this team has a lot of one-score victories this season. But they're still victories, folks. It's no small feat winning 15 games in today's day and age. Let's not forget they have a defense that allows just 19.2 points per game, and they have not let an opponent outside that meaningless last regular season game, to put up more than 19 points since the end of November. They are a perfect, 9-0 on their own field this season, while the bills have dropped four of their nine away games this season. There are a much different team at home in front of their own crowd on their own field than when they are a visitor guys. And to be quite honest, their defense has gotten exploited from time to time. And let's not forget they rank 24th in the league against the pass. Going up against Patrick Mahomes is a tall order to begin with, worse when it is a postseason contest.  But when your defense struggles against the pass, it's near impossible. This line is ping-ponging around. So, I'm just going to put out the Chiefs on the money line as a sure winner. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Game 102.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

Let's start with the NFC Title game. Early money is coming in on the Washington Commanders, and with good reason. These two teams know each other all too well, sharing the division, the NFC East. The Commanders are riding a seven-game straight up winning streak, in which they have gone 5-2 against the number, while the Eagles have won 14 of their last 15, covering 10 of their last 14 games. These teams have met twice this season, with each home team winning and covering those contests. Yes, Washington is 7-3 away from home this season. But Philly is an astounding, 10-1 at Lincoln Financial Field (talk about a home field advantage. Lol). Obviously, Philadelphia has more players with postseason experience. Let’s put a pin in that, folks. I think we can all agree quarterback, Jayden Daniels has had a storybook season. But the playoffs are a whole different monster. Yes, they beat the top NFC seed, in the Detroit Lions last week. Guys, I feel the Lions came in underprepared, and overconfident. I do feel Washington comes in here in a letdown situation. In their two playoff games thus far, Philadelphia’s, Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts have combined for over 430 yards rushing. Overall, on the season, this team possesses the second-ranked rushing attack in the NFL. This is where the game is going to get out of hand. The Commanders defense, overall although very good, still ranks 30th in the league against the rush. The Philadelphia coaching staff is smart and will have their squad prepared even further for this weeks matchup. On the flipside, the Eagle’s stop-unit has allowed a mere, 17.8 points per game this season. Sports fans, in today's day and age, that is just amazing. They top the league against the pass, and rank 10th against the run. For all the reasons I just laid out, I like Philadelphia here to win and cover, and go on to the Super Bowl. Thank you.

Eagles.

Game 392.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

Sunday's NFC divisional matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.

A mistake most sportsbettor’s make is judging a team from their previous performance. Yes, Los Angeles took down one of the regular-season’s best teams in the Minnesota Vikings, with authority just a few days ago, 27-9. But let's face it, the Vikings might be one of the biggest posers this season. Case in point, how they played the previous week against the Detroit Lions when they needed the victory badly. Let's go back to the Rams. They have won six of their last seven, both straight up and against the spread. But (and yes there's always a but), but their three previous games were played in basically covered stadiums, not having to worry about weather. Not the case here as they have to travel cross country to Lincoln Financial Field where the weather is going to be cold, cold, cold. Not only that, but the Eagles are one of the best home teams in the NFL, going 9-1 when playing host this season. Let's go back to the Rams, folks. Yes, they have won and covered their four previous games played as a visitor. But those games were on the road at the lowly Jets, the hurting 49ers, the overrated Saints, and the dismal Patriots. Jalen Hurts his back, and the way he looked last week in his return, shows us this offense has returned to full strength. The Eagles are a monster team, folks. And yes, they have something to prove. They post over 27.2-points per game, and allow just 17.8-points per game. While the Rams are pretty darn good. They just don't compare statistically here. There's no way their 22nd ranked run defense can even slow down, let alone contain the machine that is Saquon Barkley. That would be tough enough. But when you throw in the mix the legs of Hurts, they are in downright dire straits here. Offensively, Los Angeles really does rely upon their passing attack. Well, well, well…they must line up across from the NFL's No. 1 ranked pass defense. Let's flip it and talk offense for Philly, my friends. We already talked about how dominating the rushing attack is. But I want touch on AJ Brown. He cannot be happy having just one reception last week in the teams victory over the Packers. I look for him to be a major factor in the air here to make the Eagles offense equally dominant up top as well as on the ground. This will be a double-digit win for Philadelphia at home. Take the Eagles and soar. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the MONEYLINE.

Game 384.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

I am well aware Washington enters this Wildcard matchup winning their last five outings straight up. But looking closely at their schedule, they have only covered one road game since November 3, and that was against the New York Giants, which we all know has finished the regular season as one of the poorest teams in the NFL. Tampa Bay comes in here hot as well, winning six of their last seven straight up, and covering six of their last nine overall. They've also covered three of their last four games played at home during that span. The Commanders defense has gotten beaten like they stole something over recent months. Overall, they yield 23.0-points per game. They are good against the pass. But they rank 30th against the Rush. That does not bode well when they are facing the explosive, well-balanced offense of the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks third in total yards, third in passing, fourth in rushing yards, and fourth in points scored. Defensively, they're pretty good, and have tightened up as the season progressed, allowing a mere, 17.0 PPG over their last seven contests. What I think is very important here is their fourth-ranked run defense going up against their opponents third-ranked rushing offense. The Commanders rely upon the ground game. But won't have a lot of success there, facing this stout defense. Take Tampa Bay on the money line, just in case the line moves before gametime. Thank you.

Over in the Broncos/Bills matchup.

Games 379/380.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The line in this contest certainly makes it appealing to both favorite and underdog bettors. I think it's a very tough number. What I do not think is difficult, is the total. These two teams have combined to play 22 overs this season. Just over the last 10 games, the Broncos have played to seven overs, while the Bills have played to eight in their last 10 outings. We all know Bo Nix has had a great season, and is in line for Rookie of the Yearm, while Josh Allen is in line for an MVP possibly. The Bills "O" does account for more points. But it is the defenses that I'm looking at here. While both rank in the top-12 in the NFL, over recent months, it seems that the long regular-season has taken its toll on both units, as at times, they've been exposed, and vulnerable. I feel you're going see both offenses exploit both defenses here, and the total go way over. Take the over. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers on the MONEYLINE.

Game 375.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

This matchup might be one of the most exciting matchups this Wildcard weekend. But there's a few things that really make the Chargers stand out to me. For starters, when it comes to the postseason, it's a whole different monster. You certainly feel the pressure, and being a seasoned veteran is a big asset. Quarterback, Justin Herbert has a lot more pro experience than his counterpoint, CJ Stroud. Los Angeles enters this matchup winning three in a row, and seven of their last 10 straight up, covering eight of those 10. This does include covering all five games played during that span as a visitor. Houston comes in here going 4-5 straight up their last nine, and 4-6 ATS their last 10. They've only covered two of their last five games played at NRG Stadium. Let's not forget, although they let a couple of opponents put up points on them, the Chargers still possess the NFL's top-scoring defense, yielding a mere, 17.7 points per game. They also make a lot less mistakes on offense. Take Los Angeles on the Moneyline just in case the line moves prior to gametime. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

NFC GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 431.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

The road to the top-seed in the NFC has two possibilities for Detroit. If Minnesota defeats Green Bay on Sunday, the Lions will have to beat the Vikings in their regular-season finale to take the NFC North, and earn the No. 1 spot in the NFC playoffs. If the Packers win, Detroit can lock up the division, and the best record in the conference with a victory here this week. It's true, the Lions defense has surrendered quite a few points over their last several outings. But this team is in a must-win situation, and is a perfect, 7-0 SU as a visitor on the season, covering six of those seven road games. It's hard to believe San Francisco is eliminated from any postseason opportunities, as the 49ers are 6-9 this season. Losing several key players has been fatal to the team. Dropping five of their last six SU, and only covering two of their last nine, the writing is certainly on the wall for San Fran. Despite some solid statistics, the 49ers offense has only accounted for 22.1-points per game this season, and have coughed up the ball a whopping 22 times. I do expect quarterback, Brock Purdy to have some success in the air here. But his ground game will be absolutely shut down against the NFL's third-ranked rush defense. No matter how you cut it, the Lions offense ranks at or near the top in just about every category. I know their defense has given up some points in recent games. But their offense will keep the 49ers defense on the field, and more importantly San Francisco's offense off it. Take Detroit. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

AFC GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 407.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Chargers are playing for a higher seed here, while the Patriots are done for the season. Los Angeles enters this matchup having a few extra days to rest, coming off their December 19 road victory at Denver. That ATS cover was there seventh over their last nine outings. Meanwhile, New England is currently just 3-12 on the campaign, dropping five straight coming into this contest, losing by an average of 28.2-points per game during that span. The L.A. defense tops the league, yielding just 18.3-points per game, and snagging 14 takeaways. Things don't look too good for Drake Maye and the New England offense, which ranks 30th in the NFL, posting a dismal, 17.3-points for game, and committing 21 turnovers. Coach Harbaugh will have his team motivated, and certainly has an edge over his counterpart. Take the Chargers. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings.

MNF GOY.

Game 482.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

Chicago started the season off 4-2. But are currently riding the third-worst losing streak in the NFL, thanks to our own Las Vegas Raiders, and the New York Giants. Now they have to take it on the road and go into US Bank Stadium to face the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings. A Vikings team that is red hot, riding a six-game win streak. By the way folks, Chicago is winless as a visitor this year at 0-6 on the road, while Minnesota is 6-1 on their own field. Having said that, there's a couple of teams in the NFC that are already set. But a couple more wins can certainly help, and the Vikings are one of those teams. To close out their season, they're at home this week against the Bears, then take it on the road to Seattle, come back to Minneapolis to play Green Bay, and then finish their regular season off, and this might be a big game that decides division, on the road against the Lions. So, a “gimme” win here is big for this team right now, especially against a division rival.  The once-feared Chicago “D” is no more. Their offense is so bad, their defense is overworked and tired. During their current losing streak, they have allowed an average of 25.2 points per game. Minnesota and their well-balanced offense are posting over 26.1 points per game. They have a phenomenal passing attack, and a pretty solid running game. But it is their defense that has been a big reason why they're so successful this season. They rank second against the rush, first in takeaways, and sixth in points allowed. Take the Vikings. Thank you.

OVER BILLS/LIONS.

Total of the MONTH.

Games 471/472.

The Lions are on extra rest, while the Bills played a barn burner across the country in Los Angeles. But Buffalo is much healthier, and looking for a little payback after their 44-42 heartbreaking defeat at the hands of L.A. Josh Allen just might have his best passing performance of the season. One thing I feel for sure, they'll be so much scoring here, they might have to replace the bulbs in the scoreboard after the game. Take the OVER. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Game 137.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The Buffalo Bills wrapped up the AFC East already, and at 10-2, are just one-game behind the conference’s top team, the Kansas City Chiefs. This is not unfamiliar territory for Buffalo. However, as we all know over recent seasons, they have fallen short when it comes down to crunch time. They definitely want a different outcome this season. Many people out there might think that they're going to take their foot off the gas a little bit. But I am here to tell you they would be wrong. Buffalo is one of the hottest teams in football, winning seven in a row, and covering six of those seven. In consecutive games their offense scored 23, 34, 31, 30, 30, 30, and 35 points. Now they go into a domed stadium with perfect conditions. That to me spells doom for the host Los Angeles Rams. Speaking of the Rams, they have dropped their last two games played at home at the hands of the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles. Their defense has looked very vulnerable. They also have the San Francisco 49ers on deck, and can definitely be in a lookahead situation. I mentioned earlier the Los Angeles defense is beatable. They rank 21st in the league in points allowed, 15th against the pass, 28th against the rush, and 25th in total yards allowed. This does not bode well as they're going up against one of the most explosive, and well-balanced offenses in football. Not only that, but the Bills offense makes very few mistakes. On the flipside of the ball, the Buffalo stop unit is only allowing 18.7 points per game, and have snagged 13 takeaways already. Let's face it, we all know the Rams offense solely relies upon their passing game. Well, they're going up against the eighth ranked pass defense in the league. I mentioned earlier, many out there might think Buffalo might take their foot of the gas. But they cannot afford to do so. They want the top seed in the AFC, and they want what comes with it, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Under a touchdown as a gift. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

OM GOM.

Game 308.

1:30 PM PST/4:30 PM EST.

Getting off a five-game loss and no cover slide last week, taking down a division rival on the road, will take a lot of pressure off the Dallas Cowboys. Now they face another division rival, and this time they are at home, where they must desperately get a big win to excite their loyal fan base. The Giants are riding their own six-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. They are having quarterback issues to boot. This is an offense that is non-existent. Because of this, their defense is overworked and tired. I look for the Cowboys to make a statement here at home, and turn it up the stretch. Take Dallas. Thank you.

Over in the Dolphins/Bills matchup.

AFC EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH.

Games 457/458.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

I release so few totals…but when I do, they are money money money!. This Sunday, big AFC East showdown between the Dolphins and the Bills. Big news a week ago, Miami's quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa returned. In a losing effort at home against the Cardinals, he certainly sparked the offense as they accounted for more than twice their season average already. They put up 27 points. He had another week to rest, heal, and prepare for this contest. Now Buffalo, they're running red-hot winning and covering three straight. Two of those three games have gone where?... over the total folks. We all know Josh Allen and the Bills offense, can score points. They're averaging over 28.8 points per game, with middle of the road statistics, both in the air and on the ground. That tells you how good the “O” is. They're going to score points on just about any defense in the League, my friends. On defense, overall, has been good. However, they do have problems when facing quarterbacks and opposing offense like they will line up against here this week. The Dolphin’s stop-unit is overworked, and by the second half will be backpedaling quite a bit. I see both offenses moving the chains, and scoring big here, while both defenses will get burned. I think you know where I'm going with this sports fans… take the over in Miami/Buffalo and make your money. Thank you.

Texans.

Game 311.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

The oddsmakers are looking to trap you here. But my friends, we are not going to fall for it. Just because the Texans are a little banged up, they are daring you to play the Jets. Well, New York is a two-point favorite as of posting this game, and are riding a five-game losing streak, both SU/ATS. As a matter fact, they haven't covered a game as a favorite since September 19. Meanwhile, Houston has won six of their eight outings this season, and have covered their last two games played as a visitor. They are also 3-1 ATS their last four overall outings. Looking at this matchup, it is expected that CJ Stroud will have a tough time against the second-ranked passing attack of New York. However, they do have a stronger rushing attack, much stronger. They average over 118.9 yards per game on the ground, as opposed to the paltry, 86.1 yards per game rushing the Jets account for. They will control the clock, and move the chains on the ground to keep the New York defense honest, allowing them to open up their passing game. Please understand, New York cannot score. They are averaging just 18.8 points per game, and have turned the ball over nine times. Now through this point in the season, many offenses have turned the ball over. But the Jets defense has accounted for just two takeaways. Compare that to the Texans stop-unit, which have snagged eight turnovers already. The difference in this game is evident. Take Houston. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

Game 276.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

My Sunday play is a very interesting one because I feel it is a mistake made by the oddsmakers. Let's talk about the matchup between the Bears and Commanders. Yes, both teams are surprising everyone this season. Washington which is 5-2, which does include a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread record at home. is perched atop the competitive, NFC East. NO SMALL FEAT, my friends. Chicago, believe it or not, at 4-2 is in last place in the NFC North. They do own one of the top defenses in football, and are riding a three-game straight up and against the spread hot streak. But let's not get all crazy folks, those three victories were against the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars, which are a combined 5-15 this season. The line is off here because there's a big question mark on Commanders quarterback, Jayden Daniels. As of Thursday morning, odds are against the standout quarterback to see any action this week. Whether he is or isn't under center on Sunday, only affects the line, and nothing else. His backup, Marcus Mariota… although going up against Carolina last week in Daniels’ absence, looked great, passing for 205 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and adding another 34 yards on the ground. He is a seasoned quarterback and fits in quite nicely with this offense, and will be a handful if he does play this week. By the way, the Bears are winless on the road this season, at 0-2. And while their own rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams has a lot of people in Chicago excited, he also makes a lot of mistakes. And the way the Commanders defense has been playing, I think he's in real trouble this weekend. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Commanders. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

Game 267.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Green Bay enters this week’s matchup with Jacksonville, one of the hottest teams in the NFC, winning three in a row, and sitting in second place, tied with Minnesota in the NFC North, at an overall 5-2. With the Vikings loss on Thursday night, the Packers have an opportunity to slip into sole possession of second place in the very competitive Division. I feel the Jaguars are in a huge letdown situation here, following their win at home last week against the lowly, Patriots. This is a team that is just 3-7 overall their last 10 outings straight up, and have only covered four of their last 10 outings. They are being outscored by 7.0-points per game this season. While their offense has decent numbers, they have still committed seven turnovers. Meanwhile, their defense is absolutely horrible, ranking 30th in the League, yielding over 27.7-points per game, ranking 31st against the pass, and have only snagged one takeaway. I feel the top-10 passing unit, led by Jordan Love, will absolutely shred the Jaguars secondary here. No matter how you cut it, the Green Bay offense ranks in the top-10 is just about every single category. This does not bode well for Jacksonville. The Packers have the Lions on deck, and I do not see them in a look ahead spot. They must fine-tune their team here so they are ready to take on their rival next week. Take Green Bay. Thank you.

Bills.

Bookie Buster.

Game 468.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

I feel this line is way off here, my friends. You've got an Arizona Cardinals team predicted to be one of the poorest in the NFC, opening their season up on the road against one of the best teams in the AFC. Once again last season Buffalo fell short of expectations. I expect them to come out here and prove a point. Let's not forget that last year's regular season opener, they fell on the road in New York, in overtime to a team without their best QB at the helm quarterback (Aaron Rodgers got injured in the first series of the game). They have to come out here and prove a point. Under a touchdown is a gift. Take the Bills. Thank you.

Over.

Just like me, I'm going to keep this analysis very short and extremely sweet (lol. While, both defenses have consistently been two of the best in the NFL, I feel that both offenses can and will exploit their opponents’ defensive units here. Both offensive units have amazing receivers and great ground games as well. Mind you, a lot of people out there think the under is going to be a big play. But I think you're going to see two smart coaches with two smart quarterbacks commanding two very successful offensive units. Defense will probably win the game in the end. But only after a lot of scoring. Just FYI, the 49ers have played to 10 overs, eight unders, and one push. While the Chiefs have played to mostly unders this season, playing in the Super Bowl is a whole different monster. I see both teams scoring quite a bit consistently throughout the game. Take the over. Thank you.

Props

As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you'll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn't give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you're serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he's gonna’ throw a TD? I think he's gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you're betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there's no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value.

PROPS

These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes.

 Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 *

Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 *

 Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 *

Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money

Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110

Kansas City Chiefs.

Game 102.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Hello friends, in all sincerity, I feel both of these teams deserve to be playing in the Super Bowl. As a matter fact, I predicted in the preseason, that these two teams would be playing for this season’s Lombardi Trophy (notice they named it after an Italian lol). Having said that, with all respect to the San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy, they just have proven that they could win at this level. I know Purdy was not there a few years back when the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl. But I still feel that they are a little bit short of what they need to do to win the Super Bowl. Whether you like it or not, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the new Tom Brady and the Patriots. Not only have they gotten here quite a few times over the last several seasons, but they have prevailed on this platform. I have said it before and I will say it again, whatever you did prior to the Super Bowl does not matter. It is a moot point. Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He comes up big in big game situations. If you are worried about the hype about this team not being what they were, or that their defense can't stop the rush, just look at the Conference title game against a Ravens opponent, which happened to be the NFL’s top-rushing offense. They possess a defensive unit that has not allowed a single opponent to put up better than 27 points this season. My friends, after the Conference Title win, Patrick Mahomes was interviewed, and made it a point to say that the team was cognizant of being an underdog there. HMMM. How would you feel if you were the heavyweight champion of the world, and yet you faced the new kid on the block and were an underdog? Trust me when I tell you, Mahomes and the Chief will take care of business here and probably win this game outright. But I will take the points to err on the side of caution. Kansas City is the play plus the points. Thank you.

Props

As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you'll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn't give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you're serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he's gonna’ throw a TD? I think he's gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you're betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there's no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value.

PROPS

These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes.

 Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 *

Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 *

 Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 *

Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money

Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110

Total receiving yards by Kittle 49.5. OVER -110 *

Will Kittle score a TD? Yes +170

Total TD passes by Mahomes 2. OVER +170

Will Pacheco score a TD? Yes +120

10)Total receiving yards by Kelce 72.5. OVER -110 *

11)Longest reception by Kelce 21.5 yards. OVER Even Money

12)Total receptions by Kelce 6.5. OVER -110 **

13) Will Kelce score a TD? YES +105 **

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC Championship Game Winner.

Game 319.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

There is no question these are the two best teams in the AFC. However, you cannot ignore the success of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason. As far as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are concerned, they are certainly a great squad. But let's be honest, when it comes down to the playoffs, Jackson and the team overall, falls a bit short. Trust me when I tell you, Kansas City did what they needed to do on the road in Buffalo last Sunday. Although Baltimore did the same at home against Houston, there is a big difference in the level of opponent from last week to this week for them. The Chiefs are clicking at the right time. They overcame injury issues mid-season. But finished strong, and won and covered both postseason contests. The Ravens have been solid all season long. But at times their defense has shown cracks. I know this somewhat contradicts their top-ranked scoring defense. But hear me out. At times, they showed vulnerability. You cannot say the same for the Kansas City stop-unit. Yes, I am aware that Baltimore's "D" allows just 16.5 points per game, while the KC "D" allows 17.3 points per game. But Kansas City has not allowed a single opponent this season to reach 30 points in scoring (27). Offensively, the Ravens put up more points statistically. They top the league on the ground. But leave a lot to be desired in the air. This is going to be an issue because they are facing one of the toughest pass defenses in football. Kansas City will completely shut down the passing game of Baltimore and allow their defense to key on the running game. The Chiefs have proven they could win a tough game on the road against a solid opponent in the playoffs. They showed us this last week. I also think they are better coached, more disciplined, and a lot more experienced in the postseason. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC JANUARY GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 317.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Two of the most acclaimed quarterbacks in the NFL are going to be meeting one another for the seventh time. Kansas City and Buffalo have each won three of the previous matchups. However, Patrick Mahomes has bested Josh Allen when it counts, taking both playoff meetings. I don't want to upset any Bill fans. But I've been doing this for a long time, and I want you to know there are fun players, and there are money players. Josh Allen is the first. He puts up amazing numbers every year. But when it comes down to games he must win, let's be honest, the mistakes pile up and the Bills lose. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He wins when games are on the line. He wins when crunch time is upon him. And he wins in the postseason. No matter what you do during the regular season, when it comes to the playoffs, it is a whole different monster.  I hear people talking about the weather up in Buffalo. But Kansas City is no stranger to cold weather. I know the Bills closed out the regular season one of the hottest teams in the league. And that did include a three-point outright win on the road at Arrowhead in early-December. But giving Mahomes and the experienced, Kansas City Chiefs points in January is a big mistake. Not only will Mahomes be a major difference in this contest. But the consistently solid defense of the Chiefs will be a major factor as well. This is a squad that has yielded a mere, 17.3 points per game, and ranks fourth against the pass. They are going to get a lot of pressure on Allen and force him to make mistakes. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFC South Game of the Month.

Game 479.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Tampa Bay controls their destiny here folks. In other words, they win and they are in the playoffs. Let's throw away the fact the Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as a visitor this season. Let's throw away the fact Carolina has been eliminated from any postseason chances quite a while back. Throw away the fact that this home team is just 2-14, which is the worst record in the NFL this season. And throw away the fact that Carolina is also just 1-4 SU against division opponents this season. The Buccaneers are a smart, well-coached, disciplined squad, certainly outclassing their opponent in this matchup. They were riding a four-game straight up win streak prior to last weeks, 23-13 loss on the road at the Saints. But did extend their ATS cover streak to three in a row. They have dominated this division rivalry, taking eight of the last 10 meetings, straight up, and covering seven of those 10 matchups. The Panthers aren't going to jeopardize any of their significant starters here. And let's face it, even if they were going to play all out, they just don't have the personnel to contend here. If they did, they wouldn't have finished this season with the worst record in football. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

NFC North Game of the Month.

Game 478.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Detroit currently has the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture. But does have an opportunity to step up to the No. 2 seed with a win here and some help. The Vikings playoffs chances are basically hanging on by a thread. Now normally I would be a little apprehensive about a game like this. But Detroit head coach, Dan Campbell announced he will be playing quarterback, Jared Goff, and his starters in this contest. For how long, who knows. But they want this win. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road to Dallas by one-point. That ended a two game straight up win streak. But did extend their ATS cover streak to three consecutive games. They don't want to go into the postseason on a two-game slide. They need a big ego boost here. And what better team to face than their hated division rival, which happens to be on a three-game slide straight up themselves. As a matter fact, they've lost five of their last six straight up. failing to cover five straight. One thing for sure, with the announcement that Nick Mullins will start at quarterback for the Vikings, you can expect the Lions to throw a lot of different schemes at him with their very talented defense. On the flipside of the ball, Goff is going to have his best performance of the regular season because most of Minnesota secondary is either banged-up or out here. FYI, Detroit has taken three of the last four meetings in this series straight up and six in a row against the number. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Houston Texans on the Money line.

NFL Consensus Game of the Week.

Game 469.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

It seems as though every year during the last week of the regular season, you need graphs, charts, and diagrams to understand which teams need victories, which teams are eliminated, and which teams could certainly better their playoff situation. This game is very simple, a win and you will be in the postseason. Now there is a game being played earlier in the Jaguars/Titans matchup. If the Jaguars win, they take the division. If they lose, and the Texans win, Houston will take the division. Let me start off with something that really stuck out to me…the Texans are 7-0 ATS their last seven division road games. That is huge my friends. Quarterback, CJ Stroud has led this team to their first winning season since 2019. Now they want a playoff berth. In last week’s, 26-3 win at home against the Titans, the offense showed no signs of rust as Stroud made his return. The offensive line also looks very sharp, only allowing one sack. I see the Rookie of the Year candidate putting up some of his best numbers of the season here against a very vulnerable, Colts secondary. Indianapolis also ranks 27th in the league against the rush. That means Devin Singletary will get a lot of touches here and move the chains on the ground with his legs, opening up Stroud and the passing game. Defensively, Houston matches up well here with Indianapolis. I see a real mismatch in this contest. Oh, one more item, the Texans also have revenge as a motivator as they dropped the first meeting with the Colts back in mid-September at home. The line is moving between a -1.0 and a -1.5. So just err on the side of caution, take Houston on the money line. Thank you.

Play LA.

Los Angeles needs victories right now. And let's be honest, this is a team that has turned it up when they needed to, winning five of their last six straight up, and five straight against the spread. Word has come down that New York is basically throwing in the towel here, as many of their starters are going to be sidelined in place of backups. The Rams need the game, while the Giants have already made January vacation reservations. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Play Dallas.

Having suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season, the Dallas Cowboys return home and get back on track. They are a perfect 7–0 at AT&T Stadium this season, covering six of those games. As far as Detroit goes, I think they're a very good team. However, every time they need to step up in class, they truly let us down. I'm not saying they are posers. I'm just saying they can't win in crunch time. Take the Cowboys. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams.

Game 324.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

Following their three-game straight up win streak, Los Angeles lost a heartbreaker last week on the road at Baltimore, however, extending their ATS cover run to three consecutive outings. The Rams sit at 6-7 and need wins right now. After this week’s matchup with the Commanders, they have a home game against the Saints, before finishing up the regular season on the road at the Giants, and then the 49ers. This is a team that certainly controls its own destiny. As far as Washington goes, they have now dropped four in a row straight up, and three straight against the spread. Possessing the NFL's worst defense in total yards, passing yards, and points allowed, it is evident that this game will be a nightmare. During their four-game slide, the commanders have allowed 29, 31, 45, and 45 points. Look for Matthew Stafford, who has accounted for 10 TD’s and just one INT over the last three games, to light up the leagues poorest secondary, while Kyren Williams keeps the Washington defense honest on the ground. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Atlanta Falcons.

Game 307.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The NFC South has three teams tied at 6-7 and one team bringing up the rear, at 1-12. With last week’s loss at home against Tampa Bay, Atlanta dropped from the number four seed in the NFC, all the way down to the number 10 seed. The Falcons need every victory they can get right now. And what better team to face than the Panthers. Carolina is only one of two teams in the NFL eliminated from any chance at postseason play.  possess the worst record in all the football at 1-12. And as far as sportsbetting is concerned, they've only covered two games in 2023. Atlanta comes into this matchup a little angry and looking for a vengeance after letting their two-game win and cover streak come to an end a week ago. Surely, they are very confident here, knowing they took down Carolina back in early September, 24-10. I just don't see the Panthers, which rank 30th in the league in scoring, and during their current six-game slide has averaged a dismal, 11.6 points per game, keeping pace on the scoreboard here. It's just might be Atlanta’s biggest offensive output this season. Take the Falcons. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Game 127.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

My friends, there is no question that these are two of the best teams in football. They just happen to both be NFC representatives. And also, both share the NFC East division. This game has serious implications down the road, for sure. The Philadelphia Eagles own an NFL-best, 10-2 record. The Dallas Cowboys are at 9-3. There are only two other teams in the NFC at 9-3, the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. As far as us sports bettors go, Philadelphia is 6-3-3 ATS this season, while Dallas is 8-4 overall against the number on the campaign. The Eagles are money on the road, going 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS as a visitor in 2023. But it's hard to ignore the fact the Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 straight up at AT&T Stadium this season, covering five of their six games played as host. But even more than that, Dallas is riding a 14-game straight up home winning streak, which happens to be the second-longest in franchise history. Philly took a November 5 meeting at home over Dallas, 28-23 to give the team two wins and covers over the last three meetings with their division rival. The Eagles, who got caught, looking in a mid-October contest on the road at the New York Jets, just suffered their most embarrassing defeat in quite a while, losing 42-19 to the 49ers on national TV. This isn't a team that takes losing lightly, sports fans. I expect them to bounce back here and make a statement against a team they know very well. Not only that, this victory would certainly give them control over the Division. Remember, this is a team chock full of talent on both sides of the ball. Put a pin in that we're gonna’ come back around to it in a moment. They have manhandled just about every opponent they have faced this season, including some of the NFL elite (Miami, Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo). As far as Dallas goes, they have been one of the most exciting teams in the 2023 regular season. They're currently riding a four-game SU hot streak, covering three of the four. However, I've got to tell you, a lot of their wins have been against subpar opponents. Looking at their schedule thus far, they beat all the teams they should've beaten. But a late-September road loss at the hands of Arizona, throws up a red flag to me. And they did get embarrassed a few weeks later on the road at San Francisco. Other than the 49ers and the Eagles (games they both lost), they haven't faced too many of the Leagues powerhouse opponents. During their current hot run, they took down the New York Giants, the Carolina Panthers, and the Washington Commanders (a combined record of 9-28) before last week’s, 41-35 squeaker over the Seattle Seahawks. As far as injuries, both teams are relatively healthy at major positions as of this post. Both quarterbacks are seasoned, both possessing the luxury of an arsenal of receivers, and both running backs are outstanding. Statistically, the Cowboys own better numbers, both offensively and defensively. And on paper, they look like the better team. However, I think we can all agree that football is not played on paper. It is played on the gridiron. The Cowboys have an explosive passing attack and can exploit the sometimes, leaky Eagles secondary. However, Dallas’ offensive success relies upon their ability to run the ball to open up the passing game. And they're going to have a lot of problems here, moving the chains on the ground against the NFL’s stout, fourth-ranked rush defense. And at times on defense, the Cowboys stop-unit struggles come the second half against solid ground attacks. And the Eagles certainly have a solid ground attack. They rank eighth in the League, averaging over 126.0 yards per game on the ground. A combination of the Cowboys not facing a high-level of opponents this season along with the Eagles needing to bounce back and make a statement after last week’s loss, and throw in the fact, I just don't like Dak Prescott in big game situations, compels me to take the points here. Jalen Hurts has proven he can succeed in must-win games, while Prescott has not. Speaking of the points, the +3.5 is huge here. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Pittsburgh Steelers om the moneyline.

Game 259.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Pittsburgh has a chance to better themselves in the Division, while putting some distance between them and the disappointing, AFC North’s last-place squad, the Cincinnati team. They have done well when facing Division opponents this season, going 2-1 SU, while the Bengals have failed to win any meetings against AFC North opponents thus far in the 2023 regular season. The Bengals have had a few extra days to rest and prepare. But it won't matter. There is certainly a fire under the Steelers backsides, as this week, head coach, Mike Tomlin fired offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, and replaced him with Eddie Faulkner. Quarterback, Kenny Pickett will be at the helm, with the luxury of Najee Harris, heading up the ground attack. Say what you want about Pittsburgh’s statistics, but you can't argue with the 60.5% completion rate for the QB, or the fact he heads an offense that ranks second in the league, committing just eight turnovers. This will be the game that Pickett will put up his best numbers, facing the League’s, 27th ranked pass defense. But it won't stop there as the ground game will be very successful lining up against the NFL’s 30th ranked rushing defense. We all know Jake Browning will be the starter for the Bengals. He took his first significant snaps more than a week ago in a loss on the road at Baltimore. Despite having a solid workhorse in the backfield in Joe Mixon, the offense ranks 30th in the League on the ground. Without a solid, rushing attack, the Cincinnati offense is in real trouble here. Pittsburgh will exact a bit of revenge as they have lost and failed to cover four of the last five meetings in this heated rivalry. I know the Steelers are on the road and laying a small number here. I believe they will dominate this contest. But just to err on the side of caution, take the Steelers on the money line. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

Game 109.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

My friends, currently following the Monday Night contest, the Eagles possess the best record in the NFC, at 9-1, followed by the Detroit Lions at 8-2, then at 7-3, sits the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers started off the season winning their first five outings, covering four of the five. Then they suffered a three-game slide in which they were crushed by injuries. I don't think it's a coincidence that as they’ve gotten healthy, they've won their last two games. This is a team that I feel is one of the best in the National Football League. After this week, they take a little hiatus until a December 3 meeting on the road at the Philadelphia Eagle's. I don't see them overlooking the Seattle Seahawks or being in a lookahead spot at all. They must take this game very seriously. They have to. They have a few extra days off to rest, heal, and prepare for their biggest matchup of the season in their next game. I know the Seattle Seahawks are getting some money put on them here in Vegas (as of post). For the life of me, I don't see why. They were beaten in their last outing by the Los Angeles Rams, 17-16. They allowed Los Angeles to put up 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose the game very late. This isn't just a reflection of their roster and personnel, it is a reflection of the coaching staff as well. Please understand that the 49ers have won both of their divisional games this season. They took both NFC West games in 2023 thus far: on the road at the Rams in mid-September, then a few weeks later at the beginning of October at home against the Cardinals. As far as the Seahawks go, their quarterback, Geno Smith, banged up his elbow in Sunday's loss. As of Tuesday morning, posting this play, he is questionable. I feel he's going to play. Whether he does or it's back up, Drew Lock, I don't think it matters. They will be going to go up against the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense. San Francisco allows just 15.7 points per game and have already snagged 19 takeaways. That does not bode well for a Seattle offense that's already coughed up the ball 11 times. Let's face it, their offensive unit is mediocre at best. They are horrible at running the ball and middle of the pack at throwing the ball. But either way, they are overmatched with a fast, ferocious, and furious San Francisco stop-unit. On the defensive side, they are facing a top-10 offense, both on the ground and in the air. Let's face it, the 49ers offensive unit has gotten healthy and are truly dangerous. I feel this team should be a favorite of nearly double-digits. So, laying right now less than a touchdown is an early Christmas present. Oh, by the way, San Fran took all three meetings last season, both SU and ATS. Take San Francisco. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings.

Game 473.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

Guys, I've worked in every facet of this business. I spent several years working in line services. And even worked alongside the original Vegas odds makers. I'm pretty good at creating lines for games. And yet, for the life of me, I just don't see the line the odds makers put on this game. It looks like a trap to me. I have the Minnesota Vikings 1.0 to 1.5 points favorites here. This is currently the hottest team in the NFL, winning and covering five in a row and six of their last seven. As a matter fact, they have covered 5 straight road games. Is this all because Kirk cousins is out? My friends, he's been out for quite a while. Joshua Dobbs has done a very good job filling in at the helm. And their defense has certainly been much-improved. Maybe the odds makers made the line what it is because the Broncos are riding their own three-game win and cover streak. But let's face it, they beat a subpar Packers opponent, happen to catch the Chiefs at the right time, and come off a road win against the struggling Bills. Granted, two of those three teams are known as NFL elite. But I think they have just been very lucky. I feel Dobbs is going to have an enormous amount of success in the air here. I also feel they're going to establish the run against the NFL's worst rush defense. You know overall, the once-feared Denver “D” ranks dead last in points allowed this season, getting plowed for over 27.6 points per game. Meanwhile, offensively, I don't see them moving the chains as easily as they have against their last few opponents. Please remember that prior to the current win streak, the Broncos failed to cover their first five games of this season. The wrong team is favored. Take Minnesota. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Game 472.

1:25 PM, PST/4:25 PM EST.

Where to begin...hmm. For starters, this is definitely a disappointing season for the Buffalo Bills. They sit in second place in the AFC East at 5-5. This was a team touted to definitely be in the AFC Title game. Having said that, they began the 2023/2024 campaign off with a big nationally television broadcast loss back on September 11 on the road at the New York Jets. This was a very well publicized game. If you recall, Aaron Rodgers went down in the first series for New York. Everybody gasped, everybody said that's it for the Jets, and everybody said the Buffalo Bills will crush them here tonight. Well, that didn't happen. Following that loss, the Bills then rattled off three consecutive wins and covers. But have since gone just 2-4 straight up and 0-6 ATS.  They come off an embarrassing home defeat to the Denver Broncos. This is a team that does not take a losing lightly. This is a team that especially does not losing in front of their loyal fans. They must kickstart the season with the win here, or they are in dire straits. So, this brings me to my next point...revenge. They don't like losing period. They furthermore don't like losing to Conference opponents. And to go one further, they especially do not like losing to Division opponents. They've had this rematch circled since the opening season lost. The New York Jets are horrible. They lost their last two and failed to cover their last three. Their offense is nonexistent. To be quite honest, they haven't scored a touchdown in 36 straight drives as quarterback Zach Wilson has only thrown one touchdown in his last five games. Over the last two contests, they have zero touchdowns, while Wilson has been sacked 10 times. This does not bode well as they face a very angry Bills defense looking for a little redemption. You know overall the Buffalo's stop-unit still ranks fifth in points allowed, yielding just 18.4 PPG. Offensively, they still score quite a bit, ranking eighth and averaging over 26.2 points per game. If Buffalo is going to get their season back on track, they must start with a big revenge win here. Take the Bills. Thank you.

New York Jets.

Game 476.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 EST.

Very simply, I feel the wrong team is favored here. On my two sets of power ratings, I have New York a 2.0-point favorite at a 4.3-point favorite. For starters, the Chargers are not the best road team. They have won just one game straight up on the road since January 1. They've also covered just one game on the road since January 1. They have to face a Jets team that have won three in a row straight up, and are just a half-point away from covering their last four outings. During their current win streak, their defense has allowed just 15.0 points per game, while their offense has stepped up to account for 21.3 points for game during the hot streak. Zach Wilson is showing significant signs of improvement and leadership, which does not bode well for a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass. Meanwhile, the erratic Chargers offensive unit, which solely relies upon the pass, lines up against the League’s fifth-ranked, pass defense and it's eighth overall stop-unit in points allowed. As I mentioned at the beginning of this analysis, I think the wrong team is favored in. Take the Jets. Thank you.

Under in the NYG/LV matchup.

Games 469/470.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

On one side to side of the field, you've got starting quarterback, Daniel Jones, returning to an offense that averages just 11.9 points per game. However, the Giants defense have certainly stepped up lately, allowing the bills the score just 14, the Commanders to put up just 7, and the Jets to account for just 13 points. On the other side of the field, it's reported that Aiden O'Connell will start. He heads up the 30th ranked scoring offense in the NFL here, which averages a mere 15.8 points per game. And let's face it, I've seen more action on a field than he has. Lol. These two teams have combined to play three overs and 13 unders this season. They only met once in recent years. And that was in November of 2021, when the game went under the total. Take the Under. Thank you.

Cowboys/Eagles OVER.

NFL BOOKIE BUSTER OF THE WEEK.

Games 471/472.

Sunday, November 5, 2023.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The Cowboys and Eagles are two of the best teams in the NFC. They just happen to also be in the same division, the NFC East. Normally, this is one of the most competitive divisions in football. However, so far this season, these two teams are separating themselves from the rest of the pack. Philadelphia sits at 7-1, the best overall record in the NFC. Just behind them is Dallas at 5-2. FYI, two other NFC teams also own a 5-2 record, Detroit and Seattle. As of posting this play, these two teams are two of the highest-scoring teams in all of football as the Cowboys average over 28.1 points per game, while the Eagles account for 28.0 points per game. Both offenses are well-balanced: equally strong on the ground as they are in the air. Granted, these are two of the stronger defenses in the league. But my friends their last five meetings have all gone over the total. Four of the Cowboys last six contests coming into this matchup have gone over the total, while Philly just comes off a 69-point contest against Washington. Both teams need this victory. And both teams match up well with the others. You will see quarterback, Dak Prescott exploit the 26th ranked pass defense of the Philly, while the leagues seventh ranked rushing attack of Eagles will exploit the Cowboys lax run defense. Expect a lot of scoring here. Take the over. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings on the moneyline.

NFC NORTH GOM.

Game 267.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM ET.

It may be just the end of October, but my friends, this game has serious implications down the road. The Detroit Lions are in first place in the NFC North at 5-2. They have a Monday Night matchup at home against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. Sitting in second place is the Minnesota Vikings at 3-4. Third place sees the the Green Bay Packers at 2-4. And bringing up the rear at 2-5, is the Chicago Bears. If Minnesota wins, they pick up a few games on Green Bay. If Green Bay wins, they leapfrog Minnesota. Having said all that the Vikings are starting to stride. They have won and covered their last two outings: on the road at the Bears, the game wasn't as close as their 19-13 victory. Then at home last week as an underdog, they manhandled the 49ers. That game gave them their third ATS cover over their last four contests. Meanwhile, Green Bay is now riding a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. The Vikings are also looking for a little payback here. They're looking for revenge from last January’s, 41-17 beat down at the hands of the Packers.  Granted, Green Bay has a pretty good best defense. However, not too many have been able to slow down, let alone, stop the third-ranked passing unit of Minnesota. On the flipside, the mistake-prone Jordan Love (seven INT's) is in trouble here as he goes up against the very stingy, very nasty, defense of Minnesota that has already snagged 10 takeaways. This line is going up and down a little bit. Just the err on the side of caution, take the Vikings on the money line. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers on the moneyline.

BEST BET.

Game 469.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Does anyone remember when the Denver defense was feared? It seems like years have passed since those days. But it all sincerity, they were supposed to be a force to be reckoned with this year. And yet this team is 1-5 SU, failing to cover a single outing yet in the 2023/2024 campaign. Not only that, but their so called, “stop- unit” ranks dead last in the League. That's right, they are 32nd in points allowed (33.3 PPG), 30th in passing yards allowed (268.0 PY), 32nd in rushing yards allowed (172.3), and their offense has twice as many turnovers as their defense has takeaways (11/5). Because their “D” is so overworked and tired, their “O”, which was never a great offense, let's face it, is absolutely horrible. They rank in the bottom half in the NFL in every major category. Mind you, Green Bay, at 2-3, isn't all that great either. But I think we can all agree that they’ve been a bit more competitive this season, than many thought. And for us, sports bettor's, they have covered three of their five outings. The status of starting running back, Aaron Jones is still uncertain as of this post (check status). However, if he does not play, AJ Dillon has proved he can step in and contribute without missing a beat. And let's face it, as I mentioned earlier, the Denver defense ranks dead last against the run. The ability to move the chains on the ground will certainly open up the passing game for Jordan Love. Russell Wilson's numbers are horrible, ranking 27th in a league with a QBR of 39.8. He will have another long day here, going up against the much-improved, ninth-ranked pass defense of Green Bay. In my opinion, the Packers should be a favorite in this matchup of anywhere from 1.5-3.0. If you recall in the beginning of this breakdown, I mentioned about anybody remembering when the Broncos defense was feared. Here's another question I post to you; does anyone remember when playing at home was a must play on Denver? It seems like it was just yesterday that playing at Mile High was a definite play on the home team. Well, this team has failed to cover all three games played at Empower Field this season. Take Green Bay on the moneyline. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Consensus play.

Game 273.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Only one of two undefeated teams left this season, Philadelphia is truly scary. Why? Because we still haven't seen their "A" game. With a meeting with Miami, up next, you can expect them to stay focused here. Granted, New York has a stellar rushing attack, behind running back, Breece Hall. But the Eagles counter with the No. 1 "D" in the NFL vs. the run. With a potentially limited ground game to crutch on, quarterback, Zach Wilson and the 32nd ranked passing "O" of the Jets is in real trouble here. They will not be able to exploit the Eagles, shaky secondary. Philly is money on the road, with a 3-0 ATS mark as a guest this season. In a huge mismatch, the 2nd ranked rushing attack of the Eagles, will shred the NFL’s 29th ranked rush defense of the Jets. Yes, overall, the NY stop-unit owns some solid statistics. But when facing well-balanced offenses (Dallas 30, Kansas City 23) they are very beatable. FYI, I give a “mulligan” to Buffalo on that first game of the season against NYJ (lol). Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams.

TEN DIMES PLAY.

Game 272.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Covering their first three games of the season, Arizona was shaping up to be an under the radar ATS moneymaker. But when October arrived, the Cardinals fell back down to Earth, going 0-2, both straight up and against the spread as underdogs of 14.5 and 3.0 points. On the other hand, the Rams just might be the best sub .500 team in the League right now. And if they're going to take it up a notch, this is the matchup to kick it off. They have dominated their division foe, taking eight of their last 10 meetings, both SU and ATS. Arizona's only true offensive weapon, running back, James Conner is out, dealing a critical blow to the team. Reports are L.A. star wide receiver, Cooper Kupp will be a major factor here in his second game back from injury. Kupp, in his first game back from injury, a week ago, had eight receptions for 118 yards. The cobwebs have been shaken off now. Expect the Stafford/Kupp connection to pick apart the 26th ranked pass defense of ‘Zona in one of my highest-rated plays on the board this week. Take the Rams. Thank you.  

Kansas City Chiefs.

High Roller.

Game 471.

1:25 pm pst/4:25 pm est.

Following their season-opening loss in which they were shorthanded for sure, Kansas City has now rattled off three consecutive wins, going 2-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, Minnesota opened the season up going 0-3, both straight up against the spread, but came up with a big win last week on the road at Carolina to also earn their first cover of the campaign. But I've got to be honest, my friends, their defense has been absolutely atrocious and beating the Panthers is no big achievement. A big mistake made by sports bettor's out there is judging a team by their previous performance. I can tell you the Chiefs did not play their best game last week when they did eke by the Jets on the road. This is a game they have to get back on track, get all their ducks in a row, and get their foot on the gas. Facing an inexperienced quarterback that just can't seem to get a grasp of the NFL in Bryce Young is a far cry from going up against the most accomplished quarterback in the league today in Patrick Mahomes. Don't expect the Vikings defense to have the same success here this week at all. As a matter of fact, they are in for a huge let down for sure. On the opposite side of the ball, the Kansas City defense has really been superb, allowing just 15.0 points per game. My friends, please remember that the Vikings offense ranks dead least in the league in turnovers. I expect that number to skyrocket and for them to keep their 32nd ranking in tact after this contest. I look for this game to get out of hand. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

No Limit

Game 452.

6:30 AM PST/9:30 AM EST.

Guys, I am well aware that Jacksonville has become a fan favorite in London. And they did not have to travel last week following their win against Atlanta across the pond. But Buffalo has revenge in their eyes. These two teams met at Wembley stadium in 2015 when the Jaguars came out victorious, 34-31. Losing doesn't sit well with the Bills. Speaking of the team, following their season-opening embarrassing loss on national TV to a jets team minus Aaron Rodgers, the team has now won and covered three consecutive outings against some solid competition. In all sincerity, the Jaguars haven't had to face an opponent as complete as the Bills yet this season. Trevor Lawrence is struggling. And now has to line up against one of the most ferocious stop-units in the NFL. As a matter fact, Buffalo ranks fourth against the pass sixth in total yards allowed, second in points scored, and first in takeaways, snagging 11 already. And now that Josh Allen is back on track and doing what he does, I see him absolutely dissecting the 21st ranked pass defense of Jacksonville. This game is going to get out of hand while Buffalo gets their revenge. Take the Bills. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

Consensus Play.

Game 274.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 EST.

My friends, I think the line is a little off here. I think it should be closer to a -9 or even -10. Yes, I know Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots got a win    ND cover last week on the road against the Jets. But haven’t they beat them like 15 straight times? Let’s look at their performance prior to last week when they beat a Jets team with a shaky quarterback. They opened up the season losing, 25-20 at home against Philadelphia, and then followed it up also at home, losing to Miami, 24-17. Last week’s win and cover was a rarity. That was their first win since January 1. And that was the first cover since December 12 of last year. I know “the Hoodie” is an amazing coach. But he just doesn’t have the personnel any more, my friends. Let’s look at Dallas. They opened up the campaign annihilating the New York Giants on the road, 40-0, then followed that up with a Week 2 win at home against the New York Jets, 30-10. Last week as an 11-point favorite, they lost outright on the road to Arizona, 28-16. This is a perfect “bounce back” situation for the Cowboys. I know they took a serious blow when they lost CB, Trevon Diggs. But this team is loaded and they have a lot of play makers on defense. I mean they rank third in points allowed, yielding just 12.7 points per game. They’ve already snagged seven takeaways as well. They are a little bit better against the pass than they are against the rush. But let’s face it, the New England 26th ranked scoring offense…to put it very simply, is lackluster. I doubt Mac Jones will have any success in the air here, even without Diggs in the secondary. And in all sincerity, their rushing attack isn’t very threatening. Defensively, they put up some decent numbers overall. But they did give up 25 points to the Eagles and 24 points to the Dolphins. Last week when they only allowed the Jets to put up 10 points…well guys, that’s the Jets. I see Dallas bouncing back with authority here getting the win and cover at home. By the way, the Patriots are just 1-3 ATS their last four on the road, while the Cowboys are 7-2 ATS their last nine games played in their house. Take Dallas. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills on the money line.

Bookie Buster.

Game 254.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Guys, last week I was all over Miami in their 70-20 blowout at home against Denver. Yes, it’s true, they have won all three of their outings this year, both straight up and against the spread. And going back to last year, they have covered six consecutive outings. But after last week’s massacre, they are in a huge “letdown” mode here as they must face the very dangerous Buffalo bills. I know the Dolphins play the Bills very tough, as all three of last year’s matchups we’re settled by three or less points. However, there is no place for Miami to go but down following last week’s performance. Please understand this will be the Dolphins third road trip in the last four weeks. And playing up in Orchard Park is always a tough task for any visitor. Their season-opening loss on the road on Monday Night Football to the Jets without Aaron Rodgers, motivated the Bills to then go out and destroy the Raiders at home, 38-10, and then go on the road and shred the Commanders, 37-3. That Week 1 MNF game raised a lot of concerns about Josh Allen and the team in general, as they turned the ball over again and again. However, their last two contests, they’ve only coughed the ball up once. And their defense has really stepped up.Miami’s statistics are a bit skewed due to their blow out of Denver last week. In just about every offensive category, they top the NFL. But they’ve also turned the ball over three times on offense against some less than stellar defenses. And to be quite honest, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. This is by far the best offense and the best defense they have had to face yet this season. Buffalo ranks second in the league in scoring and second in the league in points allowed. I doubt very much the Dolphins will be able to slow down Josh Allen and the juggernaut, which is the Bills “O”. On the flipside, the Buffalo stop-unit has looked absolutely ferocious, topping the league with nine takeaways, and only allowing 11.7 points per game. The clock strikes midnight for Cinderella here and the carriage will turn back in to a pumpkin. Just in case the line moves, let’s err on the side of caution and play Buffalo on the money line. Thank you.

Cleveland Browns on the moneyline.

NO LIMIT Play.

Game 260.

Sunday, October 1, 2023.

10:00 AM PST/1:00PM PM EST.

The Cincinnati Bengals were predicted to run away with the AFC North. After three games into the regular season, they dwell in the division cellar at 1-2. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns are all tied at 2-1. This past Monday night, the Bengals eked by the Rams, 19-16, still not showing much. This upcoming week Cincinnati will go up against Tennessee, while Pittsburgh faces Houston. This is an ideal opportunity for Cleveland to beat a division rival and make a statement to the rest of the AFC North. This is an interesting matchup as the Browns have won and covered two of the last three meetings with the Ravens, which includes the most recent matchup, last December, 13-3. Losing running back, Nick Chubb is a significant blow to Cleveland. They did pick up a well-known face in ball-carrier, Kareem Hunt last week to combine with RB, Jerome Ford. However, their ground game really couldn’t get it going in their 27-3 victory at home against Tennessee. They must establish the run here. And I feel they will. It seems each year they possess one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. One thing for sure, they can still score points. They have accounted for 24.3 points per game thus far this season. And when you have Deshaun Watson as your quarterback, you know he’s going to also keep defenses honest with his legs. No matter what, their defense once again is ferocious. As of post, they rank number one in overall yards allowed, number one passing yards allowed, number two in rushing yards allowed, and number one in points allowed. The stop-unit is the reason why they have won two games already. Their offense did cough the ball up quite a bit through Games 1 and 2. But reports are head coach, Kevin Stefanski was pleased after this past Sunday’s victory as Watson did not throw any INT’s and the team only lost one fumble. They are definitely improving. The Ravens, despite a winning record, have looked quite lackluster this season. They took down the Texans, and did beat a banged-up, Joe Burrow and the Bengals on the road. But just couldn’t do anything right against the mediocre, Colts this past weekend, losing 22-19. I think they are in real trouble here this upcoming week. Just looking at last week’s numbers, Lamar Jackson, accounted for 303 of their 364 total yards of offense. Facing a defense like they are going to face this week I feel Jackson’s numbers will plummet. The Browns DC, Jim Schwartz is a pretty sharp guy, and he certainly has the personnel to throw a lot of different schemes at Jackson and force mistakes. Going back to last season, Cleveland is 5-1, both straight and against the spread their last six games played at home. Playing at Cleveland Browns Stadium, in front of some of the loudest, rowdiest, and most loyal fans, against a hated rival is going to be an added factor for the Browns here. There is no love lost between these teams. I feel the Ravens are in big trouble. Just in case the number moves, take Cleveland on the money line. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Ten Dimes.

Game 463.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Buffalo Bills have extremely high expectations again this season. They are tired of being a bridesmaid. Following their season-opening loss to the Jets, sans Aaron Rodgers, they bounced back last week to absolutely crush the Raiders. Not only did their defense step up, play strong, and create turnovers, but Josh Allen played mistake free football. Great effort from running back, James Cook as well. Going back to Allen, he really wants to shake the reputation of being mistake-prone. I understand the Washington Commanders are off to a 2-0 start. But before we begin handing out Lombardi Trophies to Ron Rivera and his team, let’s please remember that this team has a lackluster offense, and a defense that sprung a lot of leaks a season ago. Their supposed “stop-unit” allowed the lackluster, Denver Broncos “O” to post 33 points on them last week.  Quarterback, Sam Howell has a whopping, three starts at this level under his belt. And trust me when I tell you, none of the defenses he had to lineup against were as tough, as talented, or as angry as a defense he’s going to face this week. That Week 1 loss the Buffalo Bills experienced will not only make them a better team, it will make them a team looking for vengeance. They outclass the Washington Commanders in every aspect of the game. Lay the points with Buffalo. Thank you.

Las Vegas Raiders.

NFL ANGLE PLAY.

Game 471.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

With a new quarterback at the helm and signing their running back to a long-term deal, the Las Vegas Raiders are entering the 2023 regular season with excitement. Many out there will say the same for the Denver Broncos. However, an aging quarterback with a lackluster offense, which in turn had their defense spending too much time on the field last season and springing leaks, I feel this team is in trouble. For the Raiders, what better team to face than the Broncos. For us sports bettors, they have covered nine of the last 10 meetings, going back to September, 2018. They have also won eight of the last 10 straight up, which includes six consecutive matchups with their division rival. Jimmy Garoppolo had a 40-17 regular season record as a starter in six seasons with the San Francisco 49ers. He’s got some big receivers, including superstar wideout, Davante Adams. In the backfield, Josh Jacobs, who had 1,653 yards rushing a season ago is a workhorse. With a solid passing game and an incredible ground attack, this offense is going to be very hard to defend. Speaking of defense, Las Vegas certainly beefed up their stop-unit in the off-season. Let’s face it, Wilson is not the quarterback he once was. He doesn’t have the legs as he did in his youth. And without a solid ground attack, I feel the Broncos “O” is going to struggle once again this season. On paper, it looks like Denver has edges both overall on the roster and in coaching. But the last time this team beat the Raiders by more than one-point on their home field, was back in 2017. Playing in Mile High doesn’t offer the big advantage it once did. If you recall a season ago, the Broncos failed to cover four of their first five at home. This is way too many points to give a very hungry visitor, which has had their way in this series for years. By the way, Denver has failed to cover six straight as a divisional home favorite. Take Las Vegas. Thank you.