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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 90 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game. |
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11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | Top | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition, the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990. The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980. . |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 126 h 23 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Total of the Week This week’s Primetime ‘bookend’ concludes with the Monday Nighter, as the reeling KC Chiefs host the Giants in Kansas City. It’s an ideal time to go low... with the Chiefs currently in an offensive funk... and taking on one of our favorite ‘Under’ teams in the G-Men (Giants: 1-9 O/U L2Y in non-div games w/ an OU of > 43 pts). At last look, KC was favored by 10 pts with an OU line of 52. Consider that Monday Night double-digit non-division home favorites (Chiefs) have gone 5-23-1 O/U (and 0-7 O/U In L5 years) when the OU line is 54 or less points. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 54.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Total of the Day We’re certainly aware that Dallas is on a very hot 4-game SU, ATS, and ‘OVER’ streak in a row. the sample size is small, but significant: NFL road teams (DAL) off 4+ SUATS wins and 4+ ‘OVERS’ have gone 6-0-1 O/U since 2004 when the OU line is < 57 points. With amazing offensive point totals of 35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 games, our next query tells us that, Non-Division teams who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 4 games (DALLAS) have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U since 2000 when the OU line is 46 > points. |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 98 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog. |
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10-31-21 | Bengals v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit AFC Total of the Week The fact that Cincy is a huge road favorite plays right into our hands, as NFL road favs of 9 > pts (Cin) have gone 73% under since 2011 (17-47-2 O/U), when the OU line is 41 > pts. Yes, we’re aware that the Bengals just scored 41 points against the Ravens last week. All ROAD teams who scored 40+ pts on the division road the previous week (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years. This will be Cincy’s 3rd straight road game in a row. Consider that all teams in 3rd straight road game after allowing 17 < pts in last two games (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game |
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10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +5.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -135 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points |
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09-20-20 | Ravens -7 v. Texans | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Quite a pair of killers in which the Texans open the season (Chiefs & Ravens). Looked great in their opening 80-yard drive of the season, & stayed with KC, stat wise (9-yard deficit). That wasn't the case when these 2 met last season, as the Ravens posted a 491-232 yard edge in that 41-7 wipeout. Thirteen straight regular season wins for the Ravens (longest active streak in league). Baltimore is in off another opening drive TD (had 8 last year), with Jackson posting 7th game with 3+ TD passes & no picks since last year |
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10-21-18 | Rams -9 v. 49ers | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Year Battle of two young mastermind coaches in Shanahan and McVay. McVay definitely has the edge with a healthy QB. Hopefully, Garoppolo gets back to 100% next year, because this could be the rivalry that it was back in the '80s & '90s. Third straight road game for the Rams, having slipped by the Seahawks & Broncos (33-31 & 23-20). No question that L.A. is the NFL's premier ball-mover, behind Goff (1,928 passing yards) & Gurley (career-high 208 rushing yards last week), but Rams allowing 27.3 ppg in their last 3 outings. Niner "D" is just about at that level, so we'll take the better "O" here. |
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12-27-15 | Panthers -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Quick revenge shot for Falcons, who were taken apart, 38-0, just 2 weeks ago, along with a 424-230 yard deficit. At least Atlanta save some face, by snapping 0-6 SU and 0-9 ATS slides (1st cover since Oct 4) in 23-17 win over Jags. Still -79 points ATS last 10 games, and 0-5 ATS in division play. Panther magic continues, although blowing 35-28 lead in 3rd was a bit scary. Cam simply superb: 5 touchdown passes in 3-of-5 tilts (19 in those 3). Now 18 straight regular season wins. Falcs 1-15 ATS as underdogs of greater than 3 points off 2 road games |
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12-27-15 | Steelers -10 v. Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day - It has all fallen apart for the Ravens, who got off to that horrid 0-3 and 1-6 start. At least they've been competitive at home, with first 5 games decided by 4 points or less SU. That is until the last 2 weeks, namely 35-6 and 34-14 losses to smoking Seahawks and Chiefs. First time in their 20-year history, that the Ravens have dropped 5 home games. And it hardly gets any easier, as Pittsburgh not only finished last weeks game with Denver on a 24-0 run, but has topped 29 points in its last 6 games. Ben is now at 337 passing yards per game. No stopping the Steelers now. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Seven straight wins for the Cards, who were saved when vet Freeney forced Minny fumble in final 0:05. No question that Arizona plays its best ball on the road (32-19 points per game edge), and not about to go into late swoon after last years disastrous finish (without Palmer, who is now at 4,003 yards and 31 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions). Eagles 6-2 SU when Bradford starts and finishes, but no Philly touchdowns in final 40:38 versus Buffalo. Kelly is 2-10 ATS off 2 wins, and 1-8 ATS versus the NFC West. And Eagles are 0-9 ATS off 2 SU/ATS wins versus non-division. |
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12-13-15 | Falcons v. Panthers -7.5 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The perfect Panthers stand at 12-0 SU this year, and 16-0 SU in regular season play, behind 2nd best defense in the league, and Newton's leadership (5 touchdowns with 1 interception last week and now 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year). Missed spread last week via pair of botched PATs and 2-point runback off failed 2-point try (497-334 yard edge) versus Saints. For Falcons, it all continues. Five straight losses (last 1:39 at Tampa), and now at 6-6 SU, after 5-0 start, and a horrid 0-8 ATS run (-58 points). |
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12-06-15 | Panthers -6.5 v. Saints | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Month Talk about opposite directions! The Saints are in off their 1st no-TD showing in 155 games, with Brees TDless for first time in 46 games. New Orleans on 0-3-1 ATS slide (-61½ points), and 6-12-1 ATS since '14. Panthers, of course, are perfect: 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS TY, & 11-3 since last year, with their only misses by 3½, 3½, 2½ points. Have topped 26 points in their last 9 games, are +16 turn overs. That defebse is superb, while Cam and mates should feast on Saints horrid stop unit (NFL's worst). And Carolina 11-3 ATS as series visitor |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs -3 v. Raiders | Top | 34-20 | Win | 106 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Talk about streaky. Chiefs came from 9-1 ATS run, to 3-9, to current 5-0 (+89 pts). Five straight wins, with 761 rushing yards, and a 14/0 turnover advantage. They have a 62-16 point edge in their 2 division road games so far, with vastly improved Raiders victim #3. The dog is 7-3 ATS in Oakland games, with the only misses by a mere 1½, 4, & 2 points. Carr's touchdown pass in final 1:21 versus Titans snapped 3-game Oakland slide, but note the Raiders losing their last home game by 19 points ATS. Chiefs 9-3 ATS as series guests |
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11-29-15 | Vikings +1 v. Falcons | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Current Falcon futility continues. Opened at 4-0 (+42 points ATS), but just the reverse since, going 2-4 SU and 0-6 versus the points (-43½ pts). And Ryan, who has been remarkably steady, was responsible for 3 of Atlanta's 4 second half turnovers in blowing a pair of 14-point leads versus the Colts. The Vikings had their confidence shaken a bit with 30-13 loss to the Packers, but are still +44½ points ATS in their last 9 games. Minny is 7-1 ATS off a division game, and a superb 19-4 ATS versus non-division opponents. I'll grab this dog |
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11-29-15 | Bucs +3 v. Colts | Top | 12-25 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Now that's what I call a statement. Tampa Bay QB Winston tied a rookie record with 5 touchdown passes in 45-17 rout of a decent Philly squad, with Martin contributing 235 rushing yards just for good measure. Indianapolis is going it without Luck, with Hasselbeck leading a 17-0 windup versus the Falcons. So a field goal favorite here. Well, the underdog has covered ALL TEN Colt games this season, and Tampa is 13-0 ATS as a road underdog off reaching 28+ points. Underdog call here! |
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11-15-15 | Saints +1 v. Redskins | Top | 14-47 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Redskins in middle of Patriot, Saint, Panther, Giant run, so it doesn't get any easier for 3-5 outfit, which ranks 25th on offense. That 210-yard deficit at New England was fully expected in light of the unrelenting machine that the Pats represent. But note a 748-172 Redskin rushing yard deficit over their last 4 games. Ripe for the plucking. Saints in off OT loss, despite another 387 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions from Drew who now has 898 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions the past 2 weeks. They have amassed 66 first downs in those 2 games. Blowouts have become a near norm for the Redskins. They’ve lost 10 games by 17 or more points during the last two and one-half seasons. Historically November is a brutal month for Washington. The Redskins have dropped 20 of their last 27 games during the month, including going 0-4 last November. |
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11-08-15 | Broncos -5 v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day Peyton Manning returns to his former home once again. What a defense the Broncos displayed in rout of splendid Packers, with a 500-140 yd edge, neutralizing Rodgers, in the process. Now at 7-0 for the 1st time since '98, when they upset the Packers in the SuperBowl. Catching Colts off their Monday Nighter with Carolina is a definite plus, as is the revenge motive for last years 24-13 home playoff loss to Inddianapolit. the Underdog is 7-0 ATS in Colt games this year and Andrew is 2-0 versus Peyton. But Denver is 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win, while Indy is 1-10 ATS at home versus a non-division opponent who is off a SU and ATS win. |
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11-01-15 | Cardinals -5.5 v. Browns | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week A week ago, I gave a couple of solid reasons for backing the Browns over the Rams, such as Cleveland with an 11-3 ATS record as an underdog, as well as 10-1 ATS off a loss. Well, four lost fumbles put those stats into the trash bin. Still, the dog is 12-3-1 ATS in Cleveland games, and the Browns are 9-0 ATS as non-division home dogs. And try 6-0 ATS off scoring less than 14 points. But the Cards have a 34-22 points per game edge away this year, and are 7-0 ATS versus an opponent off a double digit SU loss. All things considered, Card call. |
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10-25-15 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots -7.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Well, what do you know? He's human after all. The initial interception (pick-six) for Brady in win over Indy (not by enough: Colt touchown in final 1:19), so he is now only 14 touchdowns with 1 interception for the season (71%). The Jets just continue to do it, now standing at 4-1, both SU & ATS, with the SU winner covering New York games by 17½, 20, 9, 11½, & 7½ points. So why not another? Home team is 29-8 ATS in Pat games, and New England is at 36.4 points per game in their last 8 games. Jets +39½ points ATS on road this year, but Pats are 8-0 ATS at home versus opponents who are off 2 wins |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Game of the Month - Eagles finally came alive in the 39-17 throttling of the Saints, who are in search of anything that will come to their aid. No, those 34 first downs, 186 rushing yards, and 519 total yards (Bradford: 333 passing yards, and now has 8 touchdowns with 6 interceptions) aren't to be dismissed, but consider the opponent. That snapped a 9-0 ATS dog run in Philly games. And the pup is 8-2-1 ATS in the Giants' last 11 games, as well. Three straight wins for New York, but no cover versus the Niners, despite 30 first downs and 525 yards. Eli a superb 41-of-54 with 3 touchdowns and only 1 interception in that one, and is a respectable 10 touchdowns wih 2 interceptions for the season, which hasn't been the case, recently. |
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10-18-15 | New England Patriots -8 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
Rating 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week After facing the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles and Ryan Mallet, the Colts step way up in quarterbacks drawing Tom Brady and the NFL’s top offense. New England is averaging 37.2 points per game while leading the NFL in total yards and passing yards. Indianapolis is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 home games. That record is trumped by New England’s dominance of the Colts during the Chuck Pagano era. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Colts in the last three years – and that’s against Andrew Luck. The Patriots have buried the Colts during this span winning 59-24, 43-22, 42-20 and 45-7. That comes out to average victory of 29 points. |
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10-11-15 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Cardinals defeated the Lions with Drew Stanton at quarterback last season, 14-6. Arizona is much more potent this season with a healthy Carson Palmer averaging 37 points per contest. Arizona had covered its past eight games with Palmer as a starter until last Sunday’s loss to the Rams when the Cardinals had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns during many trips inside the Red Zone. Matthew Stafford entered Week 4 having thrown the most interceptions in the NFC. A short week after playing the physical Seahawks on Monday doesn’t leave the Lions in a great spot either physically or mentally. |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Bills have a 307-120 rushing yard edge this year, while the Dolphins have a 284-116 rushing yard deficit. And Miami is a 3 point favorite? As per usual, Buffalo couldn't stay with the Patriots, despite an overly hyped crowd, as a quick 7-0 lead melted into a 37-13 deficit. But Taylor was 23-of-30 (76.7%) for 242 yards, but he had 3 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and now has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the season. Tannehill comes in with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while completing 67% so far, but that rushing yard edge for Buffalo cannot overlooked. The Bills won, 29-10, here a year ago. |
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SNF Smoker Rodgers has a tremendously balanced offense with Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb. Picking up veteran James Jones, a wide receiver Rodgers is comfortable with, was a huge plus. Seattle’s defense isn’t as dominant on the road and currently is minus holdout star safety Kam Chancellor. Seattle is far from intimidating away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their last 11 September road games. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been as effective on the road and he’s running behind a mediocre-at-best offensive line that when the shuffling finally stopped starts two players who went undrafted and one who was taken in the seventh round of the draft. This has Green Bay’s written all over it. |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Game of the Day The Cowboys have a veteran, productive, high-percentage in passer in Tony Romo as an underdog against the Sam Bradford-led Eagles, who are all about “potential.” Bradford, a 58.2% career completion percentage person, has played all of one real game for Philly. It wasn’t pretty, and although there is potential to improve, potential at -5 is a tightrope walk. The Eagles could not run DeMarco Murray much on Monday Night because of the scoreboard situation. The situation was that they were trailing by 17 points at halftime. A lot of people assume that when they start 0-0 here, Murray will make the Cowboys suffer for letting him go to Philadelphia in free agency. But he’s no lock to run as well as he did behind the Eagles line as he did behind the Dallas line. Different blocking schemes. And the Cowboys know how to make him fumble. |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks -4 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Last year, when the Seahawks played on this field, the Rams (+6½) pulled the 28-26 upset, thanks, in part, to a successful faked punt late in the game. So you know that Seattle who is 47-20-1 ATS lately will be more than prepared. Still one of the best teams in the NFL, especially with that impregnable defense. The addition of TE Graham from New Orleans gives QB Wilson another key option. Rams swapped Bradford for Foles, but their offensive line is still a problem, with the use of rookies needed, so that will take some time. St Louis lost its last home game by 16½ points ATS, and now face determined Seahawks team. |
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12-28-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks -11.5 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week There are teams currenty playing up to their potential but nobody is on the level of the Seahawks. They are not only on 5-0 SU run (4-0-1 ATS), but total domination, holding those 5 opponents to 6.6 points per game along with a franchise record of 596 yards in annihilation of one of the better defenses in the league ('Zona). Wilson: 339 passing yards (17 yards per pass); Lynch: 113 rushing yards (11.3 yards per rush). The Rams are -27½ points ATS last 2 weeks, and will pay the price for earlier 28-26 upset. |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Seattle looks to be near full speed now. They need two wins for the division title, and possibly home field throughout the playoffs. Their defense is near its apex, allowing just 27 points in their last 4 games. That's 6.75 points per game versus Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. They have given up just 9 and 14 first downs in the last 2 weeks. The Cardinals are still atop the NFC West, but are averaging only 13 poins per game in their last 5 games, are going it without Stanton, and have managed just 2 touchdowns in their last 19 quarters. |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Seahawks are again the at the top of the NFL. They have had 379-164 and 440-139 yard edges at San Francisco and Philadelphia (17, 11 pt covers). They are coming off holding the former 416 yards per game Eagles to only 139 yards. The Niners are sinking fast, with a 145-103 point deficit in their last 7 games (5 of last 6 SU wins by just 5, 5, 3, 6, & 4 points). Seattle is 7-1 ATS hosting an avenging division opponent. |
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12-07-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Home/road dichotomy worm sure has turned in Bengal contests, with the road team on 4-1 SU and ATS run. Three straight wins for Cincinnati, so 1½ up on Ravens, Browns, and these Steelers. Dalton had 1 touchdown with 3 interceptions at Tampa, but Bengals survived, due to inopportune Buc penalties. The underdog is on an 8-1 ATS run in Cincinnati games, and the Bengals lost their last home game by 27 points ATS. The Steelers, with and underdog 5-0 spread run in their last five games, by 63½ points. Ben has 3,705 passing yards thus far, and the Steelers had a 538-393 yard edge over the Saints. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 18-29 | Loss | -108 | 75 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Cardinals got their comeuppance in 19-3 loss at Seattle, posting only 12 first downs, 64 rushing yards, and only 204 total yards. But, they are still 2 games up in the NFC West, & and have won 16 of their last 20 games, while covering a profitable 15-4-1. They did sack Wilson 7 times in that loss, and Stanton was off a 305 passing yard effort, before just 149 versus the Seahawks. The Falcons can move it, behind Matty who has 19 touchdowns with 9 interceptions, but rank dead last on defense. |
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11-23-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts -13.5 | Top | 3-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week This is one that the Colts just do not let get away, with 37-3, 30-10, & 44-17 wins, in their last 3 games with the Jaguars. You know they are extra focused following last week's annihilating loss to the Pats, in this building. A 244-19 rushing yard deficit in that one, as well. Despite last week, Indy is on a 30-17-2 ATS run, and has topped 32 points in 5 of its last 8 games. The Jags, of course, will be bent on revenge for earlier 44-17 pasting,but have topped 17 points in just 2 of their last 12 games. To cap it off, Pagano is 12-1 ATS off a loss. |
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11-16-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New Orleans Saints -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Saints haven't lost two in a row at home since 2009 after losing in overtime to the 49ers in the Superdome this past Sunday, snapping a 10-game home win streak. New Orleans is 19-2-1 ATS under Sean Payton at home. The Bengals haven't been the same since coming out of their bye in Week 5. They are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS since then. Three of those four losses have been by three touchdowns or more.Drew Brees has a 37-to-8 touchdown-to interception ratio at home since the start of last year. Mark Ingram has rushed for 392 yards in the last four games while tight end Jimmy Graham has hauled in 22 passes and scored four touchdowns in the last three games since recovering from a shoulder injury. The Saints have covered 80 percent as home favorites during the past 31 instances. |
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11-09-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -6.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Arizona comes in to this one with another 4-game run, both SU & ATS. The cards are currently on runs of 14-3 SU (2 of those 3 loses by a mere 4 & 3 pints) & 13-3-1 ATS. They're averaging 25.9 points per game in their last 17 games, with Palmer a solid 11 touchdown passes with only 2 interceptions on the season. This is the third straight road game for the Rams, who are 4-4 ATS, but who have allowed 34, 34, 34, 31, & 34 points in their 5 losses, and have yet to put back-to-back covers. Arizona is 7-1 ATS in division play, versus a team below .500 off a SU win. Arizona's 3rd-ranked defense should handle the Rams easily. |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +2 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Chargers come into this one off 2 straight losses, after a 5-game SU run (4-1 ATS). However, they are +52½ points ATS in their last 7 games, with Rivers throwing for 20 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions for the season. The Dolphins come in on a 2-game run, for the first time all year. But those two wins have come versus the fast falling Bears and horrible Jacksonville. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS on the road, off a DD SU loss. |
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10-26-14 | Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Carolina averaged 34 points per game 2 games prior to last week's 38-17 blowout at GreenBay (38-3 in 4th). But still a game up on New Orleans. Shock has set in for Seattle, with losing 2 straight, although they nearly came all the way back from a 21-3 deficit versus the Rams. In that game Wilson became the 1st QB in NFL history with a 300-yard passing and 100-yard rushing game. Seattle HC Carroll is 7-1 ATS off 2 straight losses, and the Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as favorites off a pair of SU losses. |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NLF Play of the Week Five straight wins for Chargers, with a 147-73 point edge. They trailed Oakland, 28-21, in 4th, before 31-28 win. Rivers had 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and now has 15 touchdown with only 2 interceptions for the year. He has 5 straight games with a 120 passing rating. Kansas City has a nice 92-51 point edge of its own in their last 3 contests and took San Diego into overtmie here last year. |
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10-12-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | Top | 37-37 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day sThe home team is owns the win when Cincinnati takes the field, standing at 18-4-1 ATS. This is a Patriot/Colt sandwich for the Bengals, but Cincinnati is not about to be caught. The Panthers lost their last road game by 24½ points, and have a 75-29 point deficit versus the AFC North this year. |
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10-05-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Jacksonville has lost all 4 games by at least 17 points, and now have a 152-58 point deficit, as well as -58 points ATS. Pittsburgh let one get away last week, after leading Tampa, 27-24 in the 4th, losing in the final 0:07, on a 15-yard pass. The Steelers did cover their last road game by 21 points. Pittsburgh took Carolina, 37-19, in last road trip. |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Week The Packers are catching the Bears off their Monday Night game is a plus, as is the fact that Chicago stands a horrible 2-10 ATS versus a divisional opponent the past 2 year. The Packers won 33-28 here last year, to win their division, while the Bears are 1-6 ATS in the series including 0-4 at home. HC Trestman is 1-7 ATS at home. |
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09-21-14 | Denver Broncos v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 50 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The last times these two teams met, the potent Broncos lost 43-8 in the Super Bowl. But, so far this season the Broncos nave no covers even though they are 2 SU. Manning is having a decent year with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions, but has only 269 and 242 passing yards in the first two games. The Broncos are 30-5 SU their L35 games and 21-12 ATS. However, Seattle is off an embarrassing showing last week where they ran just 38 plays and had only 14 first downs. The Seahawks come into this one on a perfect 9-0 ATS run versus .600+ opponents,are 9-1 ATS versus non-division opponents looking for revenge, are 7-1 as a home favorite versus the AFC, and are on a 38-13 ATS run. To top off all of this Peyton Manning is just 5-24 SU and 11-18 ATS in his NFL career as a dog of 4 or more points, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS when facing a sub .666 opponent. Just too much for the Broncos to handle |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks -5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Week The Seahawks demolished the Packers last week 36-16 and it shows that Seattle is hardly sitting its success last week. They had a 207-80 rushing yard edge while Wilson threw for 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Seattle now has a 310-87 point edge in its last 11 games and are 9-1-1 ATS. They are also on a 24-4 SU run and a 38-12 ATS run. Diego in off a Monday Nighter so don't have less rest and the clincher is the visitor is 16-8-1 ATS in Charger games. |
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10-27-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers -1 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Month
Two straight much needed wins for the Steelers, after their 0-4 start. Haven't exactly broken any scoring marks in the process, with a pair of 19-pt outputs. Just a single TD versus the Ravens. Raiders came from a 5-0 TO edge (27-17 win), to a 3-1 deficit (24-7 loss), with Payton from 2/0 to 1/3. Oakland is 1-9 ATS off a bye, and is 2-15 ATS in the first of 2 home games versus <.500 opponent. |
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10-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Indianapolis Colts +3 | Top | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Dog of the Week
The Seahawks come into this one a perfect 4-0. they've won both road games, but only by 5 points and by 3, in OT versus Houston last week. That, despite 29-15 first down and 476-270 yard deficits. The Colts, come into this one with a 64-10 point edge since loss to Miami (49-28 first down edge) (+56 points ATS). They haven't allowed a touch down in the last 109:13. Indy is 10-2 ATS off SU/ATS division road win and 8-1 ATS off 2 SU/ATS wins versus an opponent off 2 SU wins. |
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11-11-12 | Houston Texans +1.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month
The Bears come into this one off their six straight win for and their most pts (51) since 1980. The Bears had 5 takeaways and now are +16 for the year. The Texans have a 64-22 scoring edge since their loss to the Packers. Rank 3rd, 4th, & 5th in total, rushing, and passing defense and are on a 15-4 ATS run. QB Schaub has 12 interceptions with 4 interceptions while RB Foster has 770 rushing yards. The Bears have given up 14 sacks in the last three games. They |
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10-14-12 | Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Year
The Packers are finally an underdog again, against a Texans team that so far, has faced the following opposing quarterbacks: Rookie Ryan Tannehill in his first NFL game; Blaine Gabbert, Peyton Manning, the Jake Locker/Hasselbeck combo in Tennessee, then Mark Sanchez who doesn't have any receivers to through to. The Packers will be facing a Wade Phillips |
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10-14-12 | NY Giants +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Game of the Week
The 49ers lost, 20-17, in overtime at home to the Giants in the NFC title game last season. The Giants are 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog with all the covers. New York has topped 40 points twice and is at its best on the road. As a matter of fact, the Giants are on a 10-2-2 spread run, & 5-0-1 ATS while on the road. Last Year Eli threw 3 touchdown passes while Bradshaw had a career best 200 rushing yards. |
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09-24-12 | Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 12-14 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Monday Night Game of the Month
Normally we would go with the home division Monday Night Dog. Seattle has now held 8 of its last 10 opponents under 21 pts and is a profitable 11-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games. But, we're going with this angle of Seattle being 0-9 ATS off a double digit cover versus .500+ opponents and Green Bay being 8-1 ATS versus the AFC West. |
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11-20-11 | Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Game of the Week
PHILADELPHIA is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record NEW YORK is 17-37-2 ATS in their last 56 games in November NEW YORK is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record |
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11-20-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -1 | Top | 8-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit AFC Game of the Week
BUFFALO is 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 MIAMI is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game BUFFALO is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East. |
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