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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-23-21 | Pistons v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day This is a re-match of the Sunday game and again, the Pistons will be without Delon Wright, who is averaging 10 points, 5 boards and 5 assists a night. On Sunday, Orlando won the battle of the boards, held Detroit to 28% from beyond the arc and the Magic were just more aggressive getting to the free-throw line 29 times to 21 for the Pistons. Orlando also should now have an improved rotation as the returning Al-Farouq Aminu started and got some rust off. |
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02-22-21 | Heat -6.5 v. Thunder | 108-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC coming off a win in Cleveland last night, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander netting 31 pts. and 9 assists, as C Al Horford rebounded from his terrible night on Friday to score 16 pts, with 8 rebs, and a couple of steals to help the Thunder to a 117-101 victory. Miami also off a victory, an emotional, hard-fought win at Staples Center against the Lakers on Saturday, with Kendrick Nunn scoring 27 pts. on 10 of 14 shooting, and Bam Adebayo had another productive night (16-10-6 with 2 steals), and Jimmy Butler (24 pts., 8 rebs. 5 dimes, 2 steals) was once again the straw that stirs the drink. One setback for Spoelstra’s Heat is that G Tyler Herro was KO’d for the 2nd half of that game with a hip problem and is iffy pending Monday’s shootaround. Considering OKC has covered just 3 of last 12 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, have to lean to Jimmy-B’s Heat. |
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02-22-21 | Grizzlies +5 v. Mavs | Top | 92-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day There could be some rust on the Dallas squad as this is their first game since losing to Portland 8 nights ago. The Mavericks have been on the selfish side as they are 25th in assists this season while Memphis leads the league in that category. Memphis has leveled off a bit since losing only three games in January. The Grizzlies figure to show some resiliency after being crushed Saturday by Phoenix. Memphis had a couple of guys out and they rested a couple of key players. They have shown they can respond after a bad beat this season. They lost to Toronto by 15 earlier this month and then beat Charlotte in the next game. They also were beaten by 31 by New Orleans 6 nights ago and won 24 hours later over OKC. |
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02-21-21 | Thunder -2 v. Cavs | 117-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers – nine straight losses -- make the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA (9.1) and they have been only too happy to compound that problem by resting one of the best inside scorer/rebounders in the league – Andre Drummond – as they try to get rid of him after the guy has played only 33 games for them since they acquired him from the Pistons. Who makes these decisions? One schedule-ranker out there says OKC has played the second-toughest slate in the NBA to this point. Cleveland represents serious class relief from that grind. |
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02-21-21 | Pistons v. Magic -2 | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first for the Pistons in consecutive games vs. Orlando and they finish this trip in the Big Easy. They have lost 8 of their last 11 games and could only muster 95 points in the loss on Friday. In that loss to Memphis, they turned it over 10 more times than the Grizzlies. Only Minnesota has won fewer games this season than Detroit. Orlando generally pounds the glass and they defend, holding teams to 111 points a night, 10th overall. They have won 3 of 4 and are shooting for their third win in a row. Nikola Vucevic is having a solid year as he is scoring 24 points a game, grabbing 11 boards and averaging 4 assists. |
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02-21-21 | Wolves v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Don’t look now, but Tom Thibodeau’s New York side has won 3 of 4 and is in playoff position in the East, not something that would mean much to the Lakers or Milwaukee, but for a Knick franchise that hasn’t been to the playoffs in the last 7 seasons and that has won only one playoff series in this century, it’s a big deal. Thibs’ team has been among the top three in the NBA defensively for the entire season (currently 3rd on the year; 1st in last 8 games in defensive rating), and is getting some stronger play from other directions than Julius Randle lately. PG Elfrid Payton has scored 15 ppg and shot 48% while getting 5 rpg and 4 apg over last 8 games, RJ Barrett is at 17 ppg and 6.2 rpg on the season, 6th man Immanuel Quickley has been a surprise (although his shooting has fallen off a bit of late) and the addition of ex-Thibodeau favorite Derrick Rose (11 ppg since arriving from Detroit, played for him in Chicago and Minny). Timberwolves have been winning about once every two weeks (5-23 L28), and Thibodeau might have a bit of emotion against his old employer and snaps 4-game Knick losing streak in series. |
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02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington enters this game 4 games under .500 on the road. Teams can pack it in against the Wizards since they are 28th in the league from downtown. When Washington lost to this club earlier this month they gave up 75 points in the first half and Portland won despite losing to the Bucks 24 hours earlier and despite the fact Damian Lillard shot it at 39% from the floor. This is a pit stop home game for Portland. They just won three on the road, play here, and pack for another 3 games with room service. The Blazers have won 6 in a row, 8 of 10 and twice against Philly. |
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02-19-21 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day These cannot be pleasant times in Detroit. The team has decided to shut down Blake Griffin until they can move him. The Pistons are 19th or worse in scoring, allowing points, rebounding and assists. In Chicago on Wednesday, the Pistons allowed the Bulls to rally and win. It probably is not a lot of fun playing for Detroit these days. Jerami Grant shot the ball 25 times against Chicago. The rest of the team only got 57 shot attempts. Memphis has some quality wins to boast about against teams like Philly, Brooklyn and Phoenix. They lead the league in assists. In the win against OKC on Wednesday they forced 18 turnovers. Grayson Allen has picked up his production for the Grizzlies scoring his average or better in 5 of the last 6 games including a 22-point outburst on Wednesday. Consider that Detroit is 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings vs Memphis |
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02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings +1 | 118-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, Western excursion of the worst point spread team in the NBA- somebody else’s 8-19-2 ATS Miami Heat -- continues with this second of back-to-backs, off last night’s brutal blowing of a big lead and subsequent overtime loss at Golden State. It’s as if whoever drew up the schedule hates Miami, given that the Kings enter with two rest days and angried up off four straight home losses. Who loses four straight home games after they go 3-1 on an Eastern trip? Only the Kings, right? They should be fully focused and it’s a turnabout situation for when they played at Miami in their own second of back-to-backs on Jan. 30 (w/Heat rested), losing just 105-104. Maybe it’s too obvious and doesn’t factor Sacramento’s habitual screw-up tendencies into the decision, but when the league’s most overrated team drags its losing butt into town 24 hours after the latest non-cover |
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02-18-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 110-96 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Familiarity breeds contempt and these teams may have that feeling since they just played on Tuesday. Toronto’s Kyle Lowry had to exit the game in the third quarter. Look for Milwaukee to be primed to pay back the Raptors for just beating them. The Bucks have to do a better job on Fred VanVleet, who is having a career year and Milwaukee has to play more up-tempo. Look for Khris Middleton to be aggressive after he scored just 11 points Tuesday and had 0 assists. This season he is averaging 20 points, 6 boards and 6 assists. |
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02-17-21 | Pistons +3 v. Bulls | 102-105 | Push | 0 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units An unforgiving February schedule for Chicago -- with Lauri Maarkenen out and Wendell Carter not quite in game-shape after returning from his injury absence -- just got harder with the late mandate to play this game on what had been scheduled as an off-day. The Pistons are probably quite happy to have avoided a Texas trip into disease and icy disaster, with this short jaunt to Chicago in its place. Dwayne Casey is a good coach and playing without Blake Griffin gives him an opportunity to get creative, and to spread minutes around to pros hungry for opportunity. |
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02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers -10.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch of the Day Following an initial uptick period in which the Houston players were happy to be rid of James Harden and determined to show the world that they could compete without him, it appears that the energy level has dropped, opponents have scouted them well, too many guys are injured and the honeymoon period is over. “It’s only gonna get worse before it gets better. Give it time. Whole new system, coaching and players. Let everything sink in,” says one seemingly level-headed observer. The absence of Christian Wood didn’t seem like it would be followed by road losses by 20, 29, 22 and 12 points at losing teams Charlotte, New Orleans, New York and Washington. But they were, with home losses to San Antonio and Miami thrown in for good measure. Consider that Houston is 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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02-17-21 | Knicks -4 v. Magic | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day When teams play a lot of one-on-one basketball, things can go awry. Orlando is not only 27th in assists but only two clubs put up fewer points nightly. Orlando’s Cole Anthony is gone and Evan Fournier, James Ennis and Al-Farouq Aminu are all iffy for this game. Break up the Knicks. They have won 3 of 5 and 5 of 7 and they are finally putting points on the board. With center Mitchell Robinson sidelined with a hand issue, New York has been forced to go small and it has worked of late. In the Monday win over Atlanta the New York combination of guards accounted for 57 points. Consider that Orlando is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog. |
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02-16-21 | Blazers -5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Oklahoma City just shocked the Milwaukee Bucks but they caught a tired team that was at the end of a 6-game road trip. OKC is in the bottom third of the league in allowing points and only 4 teams overall score fewer points nightly. This is a ‘payback’ game for the Blazers. They lost to OKC last month but there were excuses. They were playing the second of a back-to-back game and Damian Lillard had a poor shooting night going just 8 for 22 from the field. Consider that Portland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. |
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02-15-21 | Nets -4 v. Kings | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of back-to-backs for the Kings after going at it vs. Western Conference rival Memphis last night in a battle of wannabe #8 West seeds clawing at that bottom rung. The rested Nets were probably in their hotel rooms watching it. It’s the first of back-to-backs before Brooklyn flies overnight to Phoenix, where the road trip becomes testier in a Suns-Clippers-Lakers ending. |
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02-15-21 | Hawks v. Knicks +2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has lost 6 of 7 and the win in this time frame came against a team that was playing the second of a back-to-back game. When Atlanta lost to the Knicks early in the season they had no answer for Julius Randle. The Knicks have won 4 of 6 and one of the losses in that span was by a bucket to Miami. New York can throw a lot of guards at a team and that should help the play making factor too. In the win over Houston on Saturday, starting point guard Elfrid Payton had 15 on 7 for 11 shooting. Reserve point guards Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley combined for 38 points, 5 boards and 5 assists. |
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02-14-21 | Lakers -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Knockout of the Day The Lakers hit the road after they had mucho trouble with Oklahoma City at home, twice, then didn’t put Memphis away until late. Therefore, they will go to Denver and lose, because they are allegedly "struggling"? Maybe, but we wouldn’t bet on it. Remember – the Lakers scrimmage against opponents like OKC. They tend to play for real against the opponents they really need to measure themselves against. When they meet those opponents on the road, they don’t need to win by as much to get the money for their backers. With Utah hot-hot-hot, leading the West at 21-7, where are these Lakers? Ho-hum, a relative afterthought, a half-game behind, 21-6, poised to take over when the peak-too-soon Jazz begin falling to Earth. |
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02-14-21 | Bucks -11.5 v. Thunder | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch of the Day Before the Bucks lost a second straight game (and didn’t cover the spread) at Utah, we noted that they were 36-18 ATS when coming off a loss the last two-plus seasons. But we didn’t pick them to cover at Utah because Utah is too good. The "trend" didn’t take into account who they were playing. Tonight, they play off two straight losses and the opponent is not good. However, the opponent is 14-10 ATS, not bad. But most of that "trend" for OKC has been compiled covering road games at larger numbers against opponents who don’t take the Thunder seriously (they’re 11-3 ATS on the road). Off two straight losses (to 21-7 and 16-9 opponents), the Bucks will take them seriously. Also consider that Milwaukee is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. |
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02-14-21 | Wolves v. Raptors -8 | 116-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Minnesota will be without D’Angelo Russell for this game and that is a big problem for the Wolves. The point guard is averaging 19 and 5 dimes a night. Ricky Rubio took his place in the loss Wednesday and Ricky has some explaining to do. He only had 5 points in the game and Ricky only had 5 points Friday in the loss to Charlotte. The Wolves come to Tampa Bay at the wrong time as Toronto will be focused after losing to Boston on Thursday by 14 points. They had won 5 of 6 going into the Thursday outing and they have had time for that loss to set in. The Raptors share the ball and they are in the top 10 in the league in scoring. This is a game they need with the next pair against Milwaukee. |
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02-13-21 | Heat v. Jazz -5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Utah is coming off last night’s signature victory over Milwaukee, but not to worry, as the Jazz are not only 17-1 SU in their last 18, they are 16-2 against the points and have covered 3 of their first 4 chances playing the second night of back-to-back games. Jazz have made 18 treys per game over the past 15 and shot 41% from long range. Still, it’s never easy in the NBA, and Miami has won 4 straight, with Jimmy Butler starting to warm up (23 ppg, 9 rpg, 9 apg in his last 7 games). Utah has won 11 in a row against Eastern Conference teams, with a 10-0-1 spread mark, so all things considered, just lay the points. |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns +1 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Told ya’ the 76ers would not get revenge in Portland. Merely sticking Ben Simmons into a game against an opponent that beat them the last time they met is not the way it works. Here, Philadelphia tackles another winning team out West. The Sixers are 11-2 home, 7-6 on the road. Milwaukee, who they lead by 2 games atop the East, and who has a +9.5 scoring differential (compared to Philly’s +3.8), couldn’t win here earlier in the week. So, why should Philly win against a 15-9 SU and ATS home side that has been playing consistently good defense, contrary to the ol’ Suns basketball brand? |
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02-12-21 | Bucks v. Jazz -3 | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a match-up of the teams with the NBA’s two highest power ratings. Utah is the hottest team in the league, of course. But they figure to be laying a trey or more against a high-quality foe, never their best scenario. Bucks off a loss: 36-18 ATS since beginning of 2018-19 season. But how many times were they playing a road game against the NBA’s best-record team that entered the game 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS last 17 games? Aha. Not once. |
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02-12-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 95-97 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day The Nuggets ended a three-game losing streak by pummeling bottom-dweller Cleveland. Another bottom-dwelling foe makes the climb to 5,280 feet elevation preparing to be swallowed by a still-hungry bottom feeder that will take them seriously, unlike the Lakers, who use a team like OKC to work on their games and practice winning the close ones. Off two overtime losses vs. the scrimmaging Lakers, this doesn’t seem like a good spot for the depth-shy visitor. Consider that Oklahoma City is 1-12 ATS in the last 13 meetings. |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | 130-143 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mavericks delivered as promised on Wednesday night, dropping to 1-9 ATS on their home floor winning and failing to cover vs. Atlanta, pretty much as expected although it would have nice for the Hawks to get the straight-up win and not lose by 1 point. After scoring 120 points twice in their first 15 games, the Pelicans have scored 123 or more four times in their last nine. “I’ve had zero to do with that,” says head coach Stan Van Gundy. We believe that! “Our guys have just gotten comfortable playing together. We’re making plays for each other. We’re getting higher quality shots.” Alrighty, then. Off a losing visit to an Eastern Conference team (Chicago) in which the Bulls had two quarters of 40+ points (Hello? From what butt was that pulled?), the Law of Averages -- considering Dallas has the worst 3-point percentage in the league -- should swing the visitors’ way tonight. |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly won its 11th game in its last 14 starts at Sacramento on Tuesday, with Joel Embiid scoring 25 pts. and grabbing 17 boards. Embiid has scored 34 ppg and taken 10.4 rpg while shooting 56% in his last 9 games, including scoring 37 a week ago in Philly against Portland in a 121-105 home loss to the Blazers. Portland was without Damian Lillard as well as previously injured CJ McCollum (still out indefinitely). Lillard has scored 32 ppg in his last 12, and has dished 8 assists a game, and Gary Trent heads four other Blazers contributing DDs. One of those is backup C Enes Kanter, who outboarded Embiid 18-5 in the win in Philly to lead the Blazers to a 53-37 edge off the glass. Sixers will be looking for revenge, but number seems high. |
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02-11-21 | Magic v. Warriors -7.5 | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando training room looking like a M*A*S*H unit these days, with injuries to Gordon, Fournier, Anthony, Fultz, Aminu and Carter-Williams stripping HC Steve Clifford’s dance card. Aminu and Fournier could be available for this one, but the Magic are just 3-13 since promising start through first week of January. Golden State returning home after splitting a pair in Dallas against the Mavs and then another set with the Spurs in San Antonio. Now the Warriors have 4 straight at the Chase Center beginning with very beatable Orlando. Steph Curry has been rocking since Christmas and has scored 32 or more in 5 straight games, averaging 37 ppg and shooting 58% overall and 50% from beyond the arc in his last 5, and he’s still getting some nice help from Kelly Oubre Jr. (20 ppg L5) and Andrew Wiggins. Warriors covered 4 straight as chalk; Magic dropped 6 of L7 as a dog. |
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02-10-21 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-129 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Bulls will be without two 7-footers, Lauri Maarkenen and Wendell Carter. Otto Porter has been out for the last four games, too. Are you excited about backing a starting group of Patrick Williams, Daniel Gafford, Coby (I Barely Played One Season of College Basketball) White, Denzel Valentine and Zach LaVine, with Thaddeus Young, Cristiano Felicio, Ryan Arcidiacono, Garrett Temple and Tomas Satoransky coming off the bench? If so, then why? Consider that New Orleans is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. |
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02-10-21 | Hawks +4 v. Mavs | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We thought Atlanta would beat this Mavericks team at home last week. Didn’t happen. They sat Trae Young on us with no notice given. Is this a mulligan we can hit straight and true? Dallas has been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA so far at 10-15 ATS. The bulk of that “disappointment” has occurred on this floor, where the Mavericks are 1-8 ATS laying points. If Atlanta can’t make this situation work – three days off since they last played, the better to target revenge from only one week ago – then we can just dislike them intensely and wish them the worst, until the next time they look like the right side. |
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02-09-21 | Celtics v. Jazz -6 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The hottest team in the NBA takes the court for the first time since a 3-0 road trip raised the recent run to 15-1 SU, 14-2 ATS since Jan. 8. Utah is 19-5, a half-game ahead of the Lakers for best record in the West, and the league. They are peaking too soon, but is the peak still peaking or is the tail-off is ready to start? With the Celtics adding Jaylen Brown to their absentee list on top of Marcus Smart, perhaps it’s a reason for the Jazz to continue with the peaking. Without those two the floor for Boston, the Suns shot just 27.6% from three-point range yet still beat the Celtics by 9 points. The next time Utah shoots as low as 27.6% from three-point range will be the first time this season. |
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02-09-21 | Rockets +6 v. Pelicans | 101-130 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last night, the Rockets probably set a record for most late and failed close-out attempts on a rookie three-point shooter who has the lowest release point in the league. LaMelo Ball killed them because they let him. Now, brother Lonzo has his opportunity and if he was watching Houston’s terrible defensive rotations last night during the Pelicans’ bye, then he’ll be excited about the possibility of having himself a great shooting night, too. But Houston guards John Wall and Eric Gordon sat last night. They don’t do back-to-backs. Guess they don’t make enough money to extend themselves. But with the experience of those two back on the floor tonight, Houston’s defense can better extend. Sorry, Lonzo. |
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02-08-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets +4 | Top | 125-112 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Interesting: Not Milwaukee’s 9-40 SU record in Denver lifetime. That’s not interesting at all, just a multi-decades compilation involving many former players now collecting social security. What’s interesting is that Milwaukee was 0-2 against the Nuggets last season, by 12 and 14 points. They hit Mile High City shaking the back-to-back loser dust of Cleveland off them, with no margin for error. They can’t just kill the Nuggets for revenge simply because they want to. The Nuggets are home off two road losses with plenty of confidence in the match-up based on last year’s positive results. Consider that Denver is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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02-08-21 | Wolves +10 v. Mavs | 122-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Who is more overrated? The Mavericks or the T’Wolves? It’s the Mavericks, 10-14 ATS to the T’Wolves’ 11-11-1 ATS. Dallas is at the bottom of the league in three point percentage (33.8%) and yet they keep firing away from out there, 37 times per game – and a lot more than 37 times in each of their two non-covers vs. Golden State on Thursday and Saturday, which defies all logic given Golden State’s lack of inside players. |
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02-07-21 | Celtics +3 v. Suns | 91-100 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston G Jaylen Brown’s sore knee will force him to miss his second straight game, but not sure the oddsmakers haven’t over-corrected here. Phoenix is just 2-3 SU L5 at the Talking Stick, and rank just 18th in net rating over the last 15 games (Celtics 6th). Boston has worked through injuries before this season, and it’s not as if the Suns are an intact unit, with starting F Jae Crowder and contributors Dario Saric and Cam Payne out or doubtful. Would rather take it with Boston. |
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02-07-21 | Wizards v. Hornets +2 | 97-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Washington is 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. While Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest, 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog, and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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02-07-21 | Heat v. Knicks +6 | Top | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Second of back-to-backs for the Knicks following yesterday’s 110-99 win vs. end-of long-road-trip Portland. Miami flies up with rest following a lousy homestand that they managed to close out well with a 122-95 win vs. Washington (with Westbrook playing for the Wizards after they’d lost to the Wizards with Westbrook resting two nights earlier!). One win against Washington probably doesn’t solve Miami’s issues and as favorite, they can’t be in “nobody expected us to do this!” mode. Knicks don’t win three in a row very often but it’s a fact that it has happened at least once in the last 10 years – last month, actually. Miami: 7-14-1 ATS, the NBA’s worst percentage. |
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans | 109-118 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a home invasion by the Grizzlies, who were in the Big Easy yesterday casing the joint while Van Gundy & Co. were battling and beating the Pacers at the wire in Indiana before taking a late-night flight back to New Orleans. The Pelicans aren’t always comfortable in their offense, and the Grizzlies have a way of disrupting the opposing offensive flow with deflections and steals. Fresh legs can propel the NBA’s steals-leading team to a fun night of transition buckets |
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02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | Top | 132-134 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Game of the Week That home invasion situation against back-to-backing Dallas was certainly beneficial to the Warriors here on Thursday night, wasn’t it? It didn’t matter that they were lacking in frontcourt personnel. What mattered most is that the Warriors’ Kelly Oubre shot 14-for-21, including 7-for-10 on three-pointers. What mattered almost as much was Dallas firing 50 of their 92 shots from behind the three-point line against an opponent that wasn’t really prepared to stop them inside. If Rick Carlisle is half the coach we think he is, then he, hopefully, is making his players aware that they are the world’s biggest fools for playing that way, or telling himself that he’s the world’s worst coach and will prepare them better next time, which is this time. “This was a difficult lesson,” he said afterwards. No kidding! Put your learning to work! Consider that Golden State is 25-51-3 ATS in their last 79 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. |
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02-06-21 | Spurs +2 v. Rockets | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 10 Unit NBA Game of the Year Christian Wood scored 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting for Houston the other night before rolling his right ankle in the third quarter. He then left the arena in a wheelchair. Losing one big doesn’t have to harm a team in the short-term, and the Spurs haven’t covered the last three and LaMarcus Aldridge will be out for a while. There isn’t much veteran presence in his absence. But the last time the teams met, coach Popovich said that four or five of his Spurs players were "out to lunch" when a more depleted Rockets team beat them here 103-91 (Cousins, Wall, Gordon all out, Oladipo yet to show). Ya’ think they’ll be more focused for the Rockets this time around? Consider that Houston is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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02-06-21 | Nuggets v. Kings +3.5 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings are riding an up-curve in their ongoing match-ups vs. the Nuggets. Last season, a bad one for them and a good one for Denver, they lost by only 7 and 5 points, and won in overtime. This season, they’ve already beaten the Nuggets twice outright as the underdog -- in Denver on opening night in overtime, then by 10 points at home six days later. With these competitive outings under their belt vs. the guys in Denver uniforms, Luke Walton’s bunch certainly won’t lack for confidence, which will be further buoyed by the five wins in their last six games. Do the Nuggets have what it takes to bear down and deal with this new nuisance? They are coming off a season-low 93 points at the Lakers, a very good defensive team. The possibility for an offensive bounce-back exists but can they get enough scoreboard separation if shooting guards Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier are out? |
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02-05-21 | Pistons +8 v. Suns | 92-109 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It really is a shame that Detroit’s Monday game at Denver was postponed and a great anti-Pistons situation couldn’t occur when they played at Utah the next night. For this, they’ve had two days to prep, in town Wednesday while the Suns were losing that night in New Orleans. Still no Dario Saric or Damion Jones for Phoenix. Forwards Frank Kaminsky and Cameron Johnson were -17 and -25 plus-minus in the loss at New Orleans, as they should be. There are enough points available to make the lousy road dog a tempting commodity in this spot. |
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02-05-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Heat | 95-122 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a 3-8 SU mark last 11 against Miami, Washington has compiled a 7-2 spread mark the last 9 against the Heat, including 5 straight covers at American Airlines Arena. That includes the Wizards 103-100 win at Miami on Wednesday night (their 2nd cover in 2 games vs. the Heat this season), when Washington G Bradley Beal scored 32 pts., leading his team to a win despite the fact that Russell Westbrook was rested. Look for another razor-thin, make-and-a-miss decision in this one. |
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02-05-21 | Jazz v. Hornets +8.5 | 138-121 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hornets fell to 0-3 vs. the 76ers this young season on Wednesday night. Philly is just not a good match-up for them, as one could easily surmise by envisioning Cody Zeller being posterized by Joel Embiid for 31 minutes. For this, the home dog is rested and catches the Jazz playing the second of back-to-backs, coming out of Atlanta last night. Hot, first-place teams like Jazz can overcome negative situations against habitual also rans like the Hornets. But Charlotte’s Gordon Heyward and LaMelo Ball present some challenges that didn’t exist when the Jazz won here (and home) with rest against the Hornets last season. The Hornets’ new trait of hanging in there in second halves can serve them well against the second of back-to-backers. |
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02-05-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -1 | 114-113 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana just 6-8 SU in their last 14 games, but road wins have been hard to come by for New Orleans, which has dropped 7 of its last 9 on the road SU and failed to cover the last 3. That Pelican record thanks in large part to poor defensive efforts that have also correlated to a 4-0 “over” mark in L4 away from their nest. That being said, Pel F Zion Williamson developing into a force, scoring 26 ppg and shooting 62% over his last 12 games, and he’s receiving ample support from F Brandon Ingram and Gs Eric Bledsoe. Still feel Pacers hold edge and number seems a bit thin with talent like Domantas Sabonis (26 ppg, 11 rpg, 63% L5Gs) and Malcolm Brogdon (22 ppg L13) on board and Jeremy Lamb shooting 45% from beyond the arc and scoring 13 ppg since returning from his ACL rehab. |
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02-04-21 | Rockets +3.5 v. Grizzlies | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis just had its 7-game win streak snapped in Indiana on Tuesday in a 134-116 setback, while Houston similarly is coming off a loss at Oklahoma City last night that ended the Rockets’ 6-game win skein. Houston G John Wall was rested against the Thunder last night, likely in anticipation that he would be good to go against Griz’ PG Ja Morant in this one. Memphis has been missing C Jonas Valanciunas and G Grayson Allen due to Covid protocols for a few games, and Morant almost reinjured his bad ankle on Monday and made just 2 of 10 shots on Tuesday. Feel Houston the more talented club (Wall, Oladipo, Eric Gordon, DeMarcus Cousins all AS-level in their careers and Christian Wood will be there soon). |
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02-04-21 | Blazers +10 v. 76ers | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia is coming off a 118-111 win at Charlotte last night, led by Joel Embiid’s 34 pts., while Portland was off last night. Blazers are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 against the points the last few years against Philly, but things have changed with the Trail Blazers lineup compromised by injuries, while the maturing Sixers are fighting for the best record in the East. That being said, Philly has yet to cover (0-4) this season playing the 2nd of back-to-back games, despite Sixer trio of Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris each playing in 3 of the 4 chances. |
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02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day The Spurs went 1-1 in Minnesota recently in a back-to-back. They scored 88 points losing the second. Popovich can never seem to get this team to play well in the second night of a back-to-back. He’s always using it as an excuse. It’s like he hates the situations, doesn’t believe they should exist and doesn’t care, turning them into write-offs before games that offer more prep time with more energy on tap. Hey, whatever "spurs" him and his team to victory, right? San Antonio has been home since early last week. They’ve had a day in between the second straight big-margin loss vs. Memphis, and this. With an allegedly "offensive minded" roster, the T’Wolves rank #28 in points per possession |
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02-03-21 | Rockets -7 v. Thunder | 87-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rockets are rolling against ordinary opposition since relieving themselves of James Harden. OKC’s -8.3 scoring differential indicates that they are less than ordinary. Their -16.8 scoring differential on their home floor is bizarre, but it is what it is. The 136-106 win by Houston against them on Monday was what it was, including a ***BEST BET winner for us. The handwriting is on the wall. “We have a coachable group, we have a mature group who want what’s best, not just for them but everybody in the group,” Rockets’ head coach Stephen Silas said after Monday’s rout. The OKC group is not a mature group. It’s young and re-building, which is why Billy Donovan wanted out. |
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02-03-21 | Wizards +9.5 v. Heat | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami, your Eastern Conference champ of last season, is #13 in the East! You know, we never really thought they were that good, and we’ve noted that they made their big run last season as an underdog. Now, they’re favored way too often. Washington was only one game behind them in the standings when the Wizards took the floor vs. Portland last night, making this a second of back-to-backs, home to road situation against a rested home side. The rested home side has lost six of last seven, nine of last 12. |
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02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | 122-116 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Guess who’s won 11 of the last 13 meetings between the Hawks and Mavericks? It’s Atlanta. Remember, Dallas missed the playoffs, just like Atlanta usually does, three straight seasons before making it last year. If the season ended today, the Mavericks would finish 13th in the West. Their points differential is -2.1. Atlanta, 10-9 and playing with a playoff mandate from the owner, is +3.0 and #6 in the East. Struggling teams usually don’t re-discover their good mojos when they leave home and play on the road. Dallas has dropped six straight, nine of their last 11, four straight at home. The most recent loss was with a full roster after Maxi Kleber was the last guy to finally return from their mandated absences. The Hawks were right there with the Lakers at 98-97 the other night, then endured a 0-16 drought into the fourth quarter. Clint Capela didn’t get much use after he got his third foul with 9:57 left in the second quarter. |
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02-02-21 | Grizzlies +5 v. Pacers | 116-134 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers didn’t fall for any of the Grizzlies’ play-dead tricks when they beat them twice within a week last year, 126-114 and 117-104. But the games were played in late November and early December, when Memphis was 6-14 on the way down to 10-19, before they took off in early January on a run that left them with a season-best 28-26 record by mid-February. It’s probably fair to say that the Grizzlies are a different team now than they were when they played Indiana last season. It’s a second of back-to-backs for Memphis off a 29-point win Monday night. They’re 1-0 SU and ATS with no rest (at Brooklyn, off at Cleveland in early Jan.). “We’ve got a lot of depth,” Memphis guard Tyus Jones said after completing the authoritative sweep of San Antonio last night. “You’ve got to use that to your advantage night in and night out. It’s a long season.” |
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02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets +1.5 | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Paul George? No problem. Who needs him? No Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Beverly, no problem? That’s how it’s mostly been for the Clippers on their six-game road trip so far. After losing in Atlanta (winning record), they’ve won in Miami, Orlando and New York (three losers). The Clippers can clinch a winning trip here before playing in Cleveland tomorrow night, but the Nets’ 13-9 record indicates that they are “winners,” for lack of a better term. There’s certainly more scoring talent on the Brooklyn roster than within those Heat, Magic and Knicks rotations. |
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02-02-21 | Raptors -6 v. Magic | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A problem with the Magic is that they put up the fifth-most most shots per game (91.3, with San Antonio #1 at 92.3), with the worst Effective Field Goal Percentage (48.8%). They get to the free-throw fewer times than anybody except Phoenix and Memphis. That is quite the inefficient offense! The Orlando Magic know they will need to get off to a better start Tuesday night if they are going to defeat the visiting Toronto Raptors. The Magic trailed 27-15 after shooting 27.8 percent from the field in the first quarter on the way to a 115-102 loss to the Raptors Sunday night at Tampa. To make matters worse for the Magic, Aaron Gordon left the game in the third quarter with a left ankle injury. He was going to be evaluated to determine the severity of the injury. Gordon scored 14 points. Consider that Toronto is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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02-01-21 | Suns +3.5 v. Mavs | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You’re supposed to get better as you get recently absent guys back, but the Mavericks have lost five straight, the last few with Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson back. But when they lost to Phoenix on Saturday, the rather large presence of Kristaps Porzingis was missing (second of back-to-backs, can’t ask a young millionaire to extend himself when the team has lost four straight, no sireee, can’t have that!). Not that the Suns didn’t have their own handicap, with Devin Booker out (he’ll be out again) and Dario Saric failing to make his expected return. Maybe tonight for him? |
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02-01-21 | Kings +3.5 v. Pelicans | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans were both showing improvement. Then they both lost Saturday night. Now they'll both try to bounce back when the Kings visit the Pelicans on Monday night. The Kings saw a season-best, three-game winning streak end when Jimmy Butler returned from a 10-game COVID-related absence to lead the host Miami Heat to a last-minute 105-104 victory that ended their five-game losing streak. Consider that Sacramento is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog. Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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02-01-21 | Rockets -5 v. Thunder | Top | 136-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day It doesn’t make much sense, but OKC’s average home-game scoring margin through seven dates at Chesapeake Energy Arena is -14.9, through a 1-6 SU record. Obviously, they haven’t figured out what “We must protect this house!” is all about. Their overall -7.0 scoring differential is the league’s second-lowest next to Minnesota’s -10.5. The re-tooling Rockets, fueled in part by the verbal slights of former teammate James Harden, in part by his very absence (and being able to play basketball again instead of standing around watching him shoot), have won five straight. The vanquished quintet includes nobody going anywhere special in the NBA this season. Add another to the list |
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02-01-21 | Hornets +6.5 v. Heat | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jimmy Butler returned, played well, better than expected, but still Miami didn’t cover against us on Saturday night. Miami is 2-7-1 ATS since Jan. 16. They have a legitimate right to improve with Butler, Andre Iguadola and Tyler Herro back on the floor, although Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley didn’t play vs. the Kings. So they’re still a little iffy. This is the lone road game in a nine-game stretch for the Hornets, who played the Heat only twice last season: a loss in November. Consider that Charlotte is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. |
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01-31-21 | 76ers v. Pacers +2 | 119-110 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You would have thought Joel Embiid to sit at Minnesota after Philly had beaten the Lakers, but there was a day of rest in between and with the T’Wolves playing without both Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid, he wasn’t going to miss the opportunity to rack up the points (37) and rebounds (11) against 6’9", 222 Ed Davis and other overmatched fellas. Hopefully, that sets up the 76ers to be overvalued in this next road match-up, for which the home side has Domontas Sabonis to score inside, and Myles Turner to deny some scoring inside, while scoring some himself. |
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01-31-21 | Jazz +1 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-128 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Utah has reeled off 11 straight wins, the past two without Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors, and at 15-4 own the best record in the NBA. The Jazz will put that streak on the line when they visit the Nuggets for an early afternoon matchup today. Mitchell (concussion protocol) and Favors (lower back soreness) haven't played since last Tuesday but traveled to Denver on Friday while their teammates were completing a two-game home sweep of the Dallas Mavericks. Their status for Sunday is unknown. If one or both can't play, it will be tougher to beat a Nuggets team that has found some footing over the past few weeks, but Utah has played well without them, too. Different players have stepped up in their absence, giving the Jazz a boost against the Mavericks. Consider that Utah is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win. |
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01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -4.5 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Off a home win against the no-care Lakers, Detroit embarks on a five-game Western trip from which nothing good can possibly come, including two back-to-backs in four different cities that conclude with Utah and the Lakers again (trying, this time, perhaps). This would be the Pistons’ best chance to win one of the five, but the Warriors have been Jekyll-and-Hyde home and road this season so far, with a +5.8 differential here. (Pistons road differential is -6.5.) |
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01-30-21 | Kings +5.5 v. Heat | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have done nothing good all week with a handful of key missing persons still out. But remember the ol’ Texas Triangle of Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, a hellish trio for visitors to negotiate in the space of four night? The Kings complete a Tarpon Trio here after winning in Orlando and Tampa (Toronto) Wednesday and Friday. Of course, it’s only Orlando, Toronto and Miami, three struggling Eastern Conference teams. Miami has the league’s longest active losing streak (five). Goran Dragic is out, as are Meyers Leonard, Moe Harkless, Chris Silva. Andre Iguadola and Avery Bradley are questionable, as is Jimmy Butler, who has missed nine games and shouldn’t be expected to put a handicapped squad on his back first time out, if he plays at all. |
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01-30-21 | Blazers v. Bulls -2 | Top | 123-122 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Very disappointed about how the Rockets lost the first and fourth quarters badly vs. Portland the other night, but killed them in the second and third, only to have it all add up to a 3-point Houston win with the Rockets laying -4, Portland losing the game but unfortunately covering the spread. We don’t see good things ahead for the Blazers. Thursday’s result – as far as they were and are concerned, unless they’re betting – dropped them from #5 to #8 in the West, exactly the direction we see them headed, especially if they get to the free-throw line only 8 times, as was the case in Houston. The Bulls already beat them in Portland 111-108 without a few players who didn’t make that trip, when now-absent Nurkic and McCollum combined for 38 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists for the Blazers |
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01-29-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Everyone Denver has played lately has been missing key players, Miami being the latest: “That team was missing Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, a lot of their top players,” Denver coach Michael Malone said. “I don’t know if we’re as good as we played tonight.” Probably not. Denver is shooting to complete a 5-0 road trip. Who does that? Few do! Heck, the Lakers, who were 10-0 on the road, just lost at Philly. The Nuggets didn’t play here last season, beating the Spurs by 7 at home, by 6 in the Bubble, with San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozen absent for the first meeting and LaMarcus Aldridge absent for the second. As the Nuggets lose the 19.5 minutes they get from injured guard P.J. Dozier per game, the Spurs welcome back point guard Derrick White, who averaged 11.3 points per game and 3.5 assists in his 24.7 minutes last season. Every little bit help |
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01-29-21 | Kings +5.5 v. Raptors | 126-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fade the Raptors. They’re 6-12 ATS, and playing in Tampa, FL, not Toronto, Canada. They’re all excited that Kyle Lowry just got his 10,000th NBA point, as if that means anything in the standings, where they are currently #11 in the East, (Knicks are #8, Orlando #9, Chicago #10). That’s bad company to be keeping! The Kings were 0-2 vs. Toronto last season but the Raptors were better then, and the margins were only 5 and 4 points. |
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01-29-21 | Hawks -3.5 v. Wizards | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scott Brooks, head coach of the 3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS Wizards: “We know that we’re going to be healthy and everything’s going to be much better when we have our entire group.” Somebody should tell him that they don’t necessarily need Russell Westbrook, who sat the second of back-to-backs Wednesday and should return for this. Five other Wizards were absent Wednesday. Atlanta has no such personnel issues at the moment, could get Rajon Rondo back for this. |
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01-29-21 | Pacers -3 v. Hornets | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Life is all about second chances, which the Hornets get tonight after dropping the first of this two-games-in-three-nights set to the Pacers, 116-106. Falling behind 36-19 after one quarter (which they did on Wednesday) is for losers, and that’s pretty much what the Hornets have been doing year in and year out for a while, so we can’t expect miracles here. Sabonis faked everyone out and played the other night for Indiana, getting a triple-double in 37 minutes. Some sprain. |
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01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Blazers, a mostly lousy defensive team, hit the road after being quite unimpressive splitting their final two home games before this five-game trip. They are missing two key scorers, Jokic and McCollum. The Rockets are playing with a chip on their shoulder following the Harden trade, with three straight wins and John Wall and Danuel House back in the house for a few games each. Center Christian Wood is expected to rejoin them tonight after a multi-game absence. They are intent on proving Harden wrong about being able to contend. The Blazers are in fifth place in the West, but we feel they have ankle weights attached. The Rockets are eleventh, but only two game behind the Blazers. Time to continue rising and put more water in the Blazers’ leaky boat. |
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01-27-21 | Lakers v. 76ers +3 | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 14-4 SU Lakers are now 10-0 SU on the road and we were right about Lebron (46 points) planning to have a big-numbers game in Cleveland the other night, even if the SOBs decided to make it interesting and wait until the fourth quarter to win by only 7 points. They’re playing for the road streak, obviously. Philly, 12-6 SU atop the East, rested Joel Embiid the other night because they’re playing to end the road streak of the championship team in a "not in our house!" night, as well as cut the margin between themselves and the Lakers to just 1 game in the overall standings for best record. |
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01-27-21 | Bucks -6 v. Raptors | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last year’s Raptors beat Milwaukee in the Bubble when the Bucks weren’t playing so hot, just waiting for the playoffs to start so they could continue to fail to meet expectations, there, too. This year’s Raptors aren’t playing so hot themselves, still sub-.500 SU (7-10), 6-11 ATS. This is the first time they’ll be a home dog in their fake home of Tampa, FL, where they are 3-5 SU. They just love it here! (We kid!). |
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01-27-21 | Nuggets -5 v. Heat | 109-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fourth road game in six nights for the Nuggets, who have won the first three, the first two in OT at Phoenix and the third in Dallas by 4. Both sides were missing key players while the Nuggets were pretty much at full strength. Miami returns home from four straight on the road in which a handful of key players like Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Avery Bradley, did not play. "End of the week" is the reported return time for at least two of them. Lucky Nuggets again? |
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01-27-21 | Pistons +3 v. Cavs | 107-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This particular Cavaliers forecast comes to you with its usual warning under tonight’s circumstance: When favored, the Cavaliers are only 5-10 SU the last two-plus seasons. Sure, Andre Drummond (18-and-10) is playing in Cleveland for Cavaliers for the first time since leaving Cleveland for Detroit. But what did he usually do for Detroit, other than get big numbers in defeat? Pistons led their one prior meeting in Detroit 101-93 with three minutes left in the fourth quarter, lost in overtime. Derrick Rose had a horrible game. Have a better one, will ya’? |
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01-26-21 | Wizards v. Rockets -3.5 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You can’t help but feel sorry for Washington players who got good news about Westbrook being out for a week, then the bad news that the games he would miss wouldn’t be played. Naturally, as we warned, he came back as soon as the team was cleared to play again at San Antonio on Sunday, where Westbrook was a team-worst -20 plus-minus in only 25 minutes of action. There’s no way the Rockets will shoot as well as they did when Dallas’ overmatched Cauley-Stein was attempting to guard DeMarcus Cousins over the weekend, right? Well, maybe wrong! Washington’s lack of D could allow Houston to at least approach that high level (54.7%). Both sides have prima donna former-player motivation as Westbrook and Wall play for pride against their former teams. |
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01-25-21 | Thunder v. Blazers -5.5 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Games like last night against the Knicks, and this second of back-to-backs vs. OKC, need to be high-priority games for the Blazers right now and moving forward. Because if they can’t beat relative bums like these while Nurkic and McCollum are out, then they will lose contact with the “body of eight” in the Western Conference, where they entered the weekend 8-6 in sixth place overall. But they are only one (1) game out of ninth, 1.5 games out of eleventh, 2.5 games out of twelfth, 3.5 games out of fourteenth and 4.5 games out of last. Asking Lillard to do too much, too soon in a season, can potentially break him down. And then, you could just hand them a ticket to ride in the clown car with Sacramento. |
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01-25-21 | Lakers -10 v. Cavs | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day The Lakers’ road trip continues with game number three of seven, a home invasion situation for which they were in town yesterday while the Cavaliers were battling in Boston. The Lakers’ current road tally is now 9-0, following up on a strong 2019-20 road season. Cleveland was averaging only 98 points per game until the Nets hit town with the The Three Ball Hogs and the Cavs scored 113 and 125 in regulation. Was that a two-shot deal against defense-less superstars coached by Steve Nash/Mike Dantoni and obsessed with scoring points? The Lakers, despite having Lebron and Lebrow, are more interested in a well-rounded experience. After Anthony Davis snapped out of a recent funk during a 21-point win in his hometown of Chicago (we projected it by 22, sorry for being off), figure Lebron to show up large for his home-area peeps, even if nobody is in the arena. He had 32-14-12 in his re-return to Cleveland in 2018-19, for the 37-45 Lakers team (that was 23-21 at the time, before he got hurt). You see how these guys are operating, right? |
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01-25-21 | Raptors +2.5 v. Pacers | 114-129 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana Pacers first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren will try to gain a split with his former boss and Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse Monday night when the teams complete a two-game set at Indianapolis. The Raptors won the opener of the back-to-back games 107-102 on Sunday afternoon. The Raptors, who have won five of their past six games, were without Kyle Lowry (infected toe) and Pascal Siakam (left knee swelling). Their status for Monday was uncertain. The Pacers have lost three of their past four games. Consider that Toronto is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. |
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01-24-21 | Knicks v. Blazers -3.5 | 113-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Portland Trail Blazers received an unexpected but welcome break this week, and figure to be fresh and rejuvenated tonight when they host the New York Knicks. Portland's scheduled games on Wednesday and Friday against Memphis were postponed due to COVID-19 issues for the Grizzlies. So, Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts saw an opening to refine some things in practice and tinker with player rotations. It was certainly well-timed after recent injuries to shooting guard CJ McCollum (foot) and big man Jusuf Nurkic (wrist). Consider that New York is 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Portland. |
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01-24-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won 9 of the 10 meetings since Mike Budenholzer was canned by the Hawks and hired to coach the Bucks. They have all the continuity here, with Atlanta still trying to put the right pieces around Trae Young, who may not even be the right guy to be putting pieces around. Every now and then he erupts for 43 points and the Hawks beat a bad team, and everyone is like, ‘Trae Young! Superstar! Building a Hawks dynasty!’ Then they lose some games before they beat some other lousy opponent with Young scoring a lot, and the call is revived: ‘Trae Young! Awesome! Hawks on the rise!’ Yawn. The Bucks are off two losses; the Hawks are off three wins. It is time for the invisible forces to adjust the direction of their respective destinies |
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01-24-21 | Hornets +1 v. Magic | Top | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Play of the Day Quadruple-revenge for last year’s 0-4. We’re going to invent a category. It’s called, “Second Half Scoring Margin, This Year Compared to 2019-20.” The Charlotte Hornets are #1 in the NBA in this category. Last season, they were -4.0 per game in second halves. This season, they are +3.1 The +7.1 points change is the largest positive second half scoring differential change in the league. It’s early, the sample is small (eight road games), but it’s a sign that they are better able to bring it in battle. Their road differential in the second half is actually greater than it’s been on their home floor (+4.2 vs. +1.7). Orlando is a losing foe with the NBA’s worst first-half scoring margin: -6.8 per game. It’s the second game back from injury for 6’11” C Cody Zeller, who’s been with the Hornets since the last year in which they were called the Bobcats (eight years ago), so he must be at least somewhat important. |
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01-24-21 | Raptors +1.5 v. Pacers | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. While Indiana is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. In addition, Toronto is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Indiana. |
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01-23-21 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Suns | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ve been hit with a run of bad luck, losing with deserving winners like underdog Detroit Pistons at Atlanta, Charlotte U. at FAU failing in overtime and the Suns -1 last night also failing in overtime (after they led by 14 points at halftime, after which Devin Booker got hurt). These things happen – right side, wrong breaks -- and the ball will bounce our way again. For the Suns, definitely without Booker tonight, the ball may not bounce their way. They wasted Denver star Jamal Murray’s 0-fer from three-point range last night. |
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01-23-21 | Lakers -9 v. Bulls | Top | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Play of the Day When the Lakers hosted the Bulls recently, they treated it like a practice and won by 2 points. Tonight, they are in position to perform a home invasion as they were in town yesterday while the Bulls were in Charlotte last night, winning against an opponent that made only 7 of 32 three-point baskets (hey, don’t take it if you can’t make it!). For those who don’t already know: Lakers were the best road team in the NBA last season and are currently 8-0 SU on the road. Off the win at Milwaukee, if they’re looking for “something to play for,” then “continued road dominance” is available. |
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01-23-21 | Pelicans -8 v. Wolves | 110-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stan the Man Van Gundy brings the Pelicans to the end of the line… of their six game, five-city road trip that began on Jan. 11, hasn’t had any back-to-backs, but has produced only one win in six games so far. He did it again – Zion Williamson and Steven Adams both starting, playing 34 and 30 minutes piece, and the entire starting lineup was -15 to -25 in the 11-point loss at Utah. The guy did not adjust after the loss in the first of the two-game series. He can get away with doing the wrong thing against the T’Wolves because the head coach of the 3-11 SU home team – that has scored 96, 97, 96, 98 points in four of its last five games and probably won’t have the oft-absent Towns again -- is worse than him. |
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01-22-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -2 | Top | 130-126 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Suns won in Denver on the second of back-to-back nights on the road Jan. 1, off a win in Utah the night before, when Denver had no games the prior two nights and was coming off a loss. In other words, the Suns were wearing ankle weights, playing with less air in their lungs and less gas in the tank than usual, taking the worst of the “motivational” situation, yet were still able to take care of business in this match-up. Denver continues to be overrated, 5-9 ATS. At 7-7, they really don’t have an impressive win among the seven. |
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01-22-21 | Heat v. Raptors -3 | 81-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Toronto Raptors are not sure whether they will have All-Star Pascal Siakam in the lineup Friday night at their temporary home in Tampa, Fla., when they complete a two-game set against the Miami Heat. Siakam took an awkward fall on a dunk late in the first quarter of the 111-102 loss to the undermanned Heat on Wednesday night and left the game. He returned in the second quarter and finished with 18 points. He did not practice Thursday and his status was uncertain for Friday. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Raptors, who will complete a five-game stretch of home games on Friday. Consider that Miami is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. |
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01-22-21 | Rockets v. Pistons -3 | 103-102 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bad luck losing Pistons plus the points at Atlanta in OT the other night. Whaddya’ gonna do? Houston’s three-point attempt rate of 35.2% in their home loss vs. Phoenix the other night (third straight "L" since celebrating Harden’s departure with a win) was their lowest of the season. John Wall and Danuel House remain out for the Rockets. Houston head coach Steven Silas: "We’re dealing with a lot of different things. But mainly without those guys it’s stagger minutes and try to figure it all out." Hopefully, they won’t figure it out until at least one day from now. "Houston off a straight-up loss" is 30-44-1 ATS the last two-plus seasons (worst in the NBA), could get worse under current conditions. |
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01-21-21 | Knicks +5 v. Warriors | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Knicks won in OT here last year. They hit town yesterday before the Warriors came out to play vs. the Spurs, which makes this a second back-to-backs and third game in four nights for the home side. Nobody played more minutes than Curry, Wiseman and Oubre’s 31 apiece last night when the Warriors jumped on the Spurs early. But the Knicks, despite being the Knicks, probably won’t shoot 4-for-33 from three point range like the Spurs did… especially if Alec Burks – a Warrior last year – maintains his current 66.7% three-point shooting in the three games he’s played for New York. He returns from an injury tonight after not playing since Dec. 27. The Warriors won their only home second of back-to-backs by 31 points but that’s one heck of a short sample, is it not? Before last night, their starting lineup of Curry, Oubre, Wiggins, Green and Wiseman had a Plus-Minus of -45. |
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01-21-21 | Lakers +2 v. Bucks | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The last time the Lakers played the Bucks, it was as the fifth and final game of a road trip last December, after they’d won the first three and guaranteed themselves a winning trip. They trailed 65-46 at halftime, understandable given the situation. But they “won” the second half 58-46, not bad given the situation. The set-up for this is different: first game of a seven-game road trip, off a Martin Luther King Day loss (they always lose on Martin Luther King Day; it’s a Laker tradition). Low-man help defense was a focus in L.A. practice for this. Opponent-specific practice is a thing that NBA teams don’t get much time for during the season. The Lakers are 7-0 SU on the road so far. |
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01-20-21 | Suns v. Rockets +6 | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets still are not whole, and with one dozen of their 72-game schedule in the books, it's becoming easier to wonder if they will find their footing and salvage their season. The newest member of the Rockets was preaching patience following a 125-120 loss at the Chicago Bulls on Monday. Victor Oladipo predicting fairer skies ahead following his 32-point, five-rebound, nine-assist debut in the aftermath of the blockbuster trade that sent All-NBA guard James Harden to Brooklyn and landed Oladipo on a makeshift roster in Houston. Suns coach Monty Williams described the time off Phoenix had between its blowout loss at the Washington Wizards on Jan. 11 and its 108-104 setback at the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday as a delay in the process of acclimation, with multiple health and safety protocol postponements putting the Suns "in a bit of a bind." Consider that Phoenix is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. |
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01-20-21 | Pistons +5 v. Hawks | 115-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hawks had a get-well game against Minnesota on Monday, but they didn’t hit their scoring average in victory (108 vs. 111), against the team giving up the fourth-most points per game in the NBA (118.7). Atlanta has still lost more games outright as a favorite than they’ve won, the last two-plus seasons. Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose were out for the Pistons when they lost 128-120 on this floor in the third game of the season. They’re back. They’re useful veterans. |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Jazz | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first of two games in three nights between Northwest Division leading Jazz, and Southwest Division habitual also ran Pelicans, still struggling after all these years to elevate into the Western Conference’s top eight. They think Stan Van Gundy is the guy to step in and get them over that hump when their focal-point player, Zion Wiliamson, doesn’t even have a full season in the league yet. We shall see. For the moment, he’s led them to 5-7, five of the seven losses in succession until they won in Sacramento the other night. Erratic shooting, too many turnovers, Lonzo Ball absent for the last three games… but he could return tonight. Their three losses to the Jazz last season were by 8, 2 and 2 points, and there was a home OT win. Utah won their circled revenge affair at Denver on Sunday, a game to which many of them had been looking forward since Sept. 1. Safe to say they haven’t been looking forward to this game since Sept. 1. Maybe since Jan. 18. |
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01-18-21 | Bucks -2 v. Nets | 123-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The large mass of human form resembling James Harden will encounter more defensive resistance than it did in its Nets’ debut vs. Orlando on Saturday. Bucks have had two off-days before coming in and have not been dealing with many personnel absences. |
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01-18-21 | Spurs v. Blazers +2 | 125-104 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Spurs have long had problems in this building. Popovich seems to use it as a place to rest guys, test out new lineups, let somebody else coach (he’ll get himself ejected). Weird. |
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01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week It’s a great “situation” for the T’Wolves, although they are the type of team that tends to not take advantage. The Hawks were out West last week, return home with only one day in between their 6-point loss at Portland (taking +5) and this assignment, for which they don’t even get a break with a night-time tip. It’s 2:35 pm, ET! Are we feeling a bit sluggish today? The T’Wolves haven’t played since Thursday night at home against Memphis. They figure to be the fresher and more in sync side, because if recently injured and absent Hawks come back for this, they may need a game under their belts before re-jelling with their mates (actually, with so many new players, they haven’t originally jelled yet). Atlanta is a mere 13-15 SU – that’s straightup -- when favored the last two-plus seasons. T’Wolves have a built-in excuse for blowing this, with Towns out again, and probably Juancho Hermangomez and Ricky Rubio, too. But their 0-5 SU road record has been compiled vs. Utah, LA Clippers and Lakers, Denver and Portland. All winners. So, if they don’t come through for us, then we can just hate on them and insult them and win some other games starting tomorrow. |
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01-18-21 | Magic -1.5 v. Knicks | 84-91 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Home invasion situation with the Magic having been in god-forsaken New York since Friday, where they competed well against Brooklyn on Saturday but were victimized by a large mass of human form who resembled James Harden, swishing threes from way downtown. The Magic have their issues and obstacles but they have been waiting for the Knicks to arrive so they can take well-prepped advantage of losing-streaking New York playing the second of back-to-backs, road to home. |
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01-17-21 | Pacers +6 v. Clippers | Top | 96-129 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day With a 42.9% rate on three-pointers, you’d think the Clippers should be undefeated, right? Utah led the NBA in that department with 38.0% last season, so expect that percentage to be dropping. The Pacers enter in what was supposed to be a second of back-to-backs, but their game at Phoenix was postponed last night. That’s a fortunate break that eliminates what would have been a fifth road game in seven nights, and instead makes it a Jan. 14 to Jan. 17 gap with time to practice on the road for what has been an undervalued team (8-4 ATS). Indiana’s response to trading Victor Oladipo was a 111-87 win at Portland, accomplished without yet-to-arrive Caris Le-Vert. |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Kings | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the downturn the Pels have shown a lack of defensive intensity, losing the TO battle by 4½ per game, allowing foes to make 42% of their treys and giving up 9 steals a game. Sacto not doing any better, with a 2-7 SU mark since New Year’s Eve, ranking dead last in net differential in that period. The Kings average 113.6 PPG, but they allow a whopping 123.2. Look for New Orleans to improve to 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a straight-up loss of ten or more points in its previous outing and lay the short points. |
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01-16-21 | Hawks v. Blazers -4.5 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are dealing with injury issues, but the backcourt of Lillard and McCollum will just be too much for this young Hawks team to deal with in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, as note that Atlanta has indeed struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games after failing to score 100 points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous game and playing on no rest. |
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01-16-21 | Hornets +7.5 v. Raptors | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ‘Fade the Raptors’ mantra worked again on Thursday night. They’re 3-8 ATS. Say no more. |
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01-16-21 | Magic v. Nets -9.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Play of the Day Orlando won the first three meetings with Brooklyn last season until the very meaningless fourth, when Brooklyn won 108-96 led by Jeremiah Martin, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Dzanan Musa and Tyler Johnson. The Nets are in much better shape physically and scoring-potential now, and they’ll have had two days off since beating the Knicks. Orlando is not in better shape physically or in scoring potential. In fact, they’re worse off. They’ve scored 90, 98, 99, 97 points in their current four-game losing streak. Plus, they’re in a second of road back-to-backs (Nets are rested) coming out of Boston Friday last night, where they were without Mo Bamba, Michael Cater-Williams, Evan Fournier, Al-Farouq Aminu, and the three guys who were already out long-term, Chuma Okeke, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac. |
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01-16-21 | Rockets v. Spurs -7 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units When you work with somebody who doesn’t want to be there and doesn’t think |
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01-15-21 | Pelicans +10 v. Lakers | 95-112 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers pounded the Oklahoma City Thunder 128-99 on Wednesday to remain the NBA's only unbeaten team on the road. But the Lakers, who are an NBA-best 10-3 overall, are 3-3 at home, with losses in two of their past three games at Staples Center. Consider that LA is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. |
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