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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-23 | Blazers +9 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers take on the Warriors for the third time this month, and Portland has covered the spread in its previous two dates with Golden State. The Warriors have been playing a ton of close games of late, so I’m backing the Blazers to grab their third consecutive ATS victory over Golden State. On paper, Golden State is a better team than Portland, but the Warriors will have to deal with fatigue in this game. The Warriors have gone 3-4 ATS over their previous seven games, and each of those seven contests have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Blazers will look to slow things down once more and force the Warriors into half-court basketball, so I’m expecting Portland to hang around down the stretch. |
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12-23-23 | Grizzlies v. Hawks | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Hawks played well over the past week and they’ve won three of their last four games. They will try to keep the momentum going with a win over the Grizzlies, which will give them their fourth win in their last five games. Atlanta is averaging 123.1 points per game. They scored 134 points in their last game, making 51.6 percent of their field goals and 42.5 percent of their three-pointers. Trae Young led the Hawks with 30 points, four rebounds, and 14 assists. Bogdan Bogdanovic finished with 22 points, four rebounds, and five assists, while Dejounte Murray added 21 points, three rebounds, and five assists. |
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12-23-23 | Bucks -135 v. Knicks | 130-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have played solid basketball this season with wildly different splits. The Bucks have played 18 of their 28 games at home this season while the Knicks have played 17 of their first 27 games on the road. New York has been solid defensively this season, which helps make up for the fact that they are a middle of the road team on the offensive end of the floor. The problem for coach Tom Thibodeau’s team is that they don’t have the pieces to effectively lock up Antetokounmpo and Lillard. Milwaukee is a deep, talented team and we’ve seen them torch this Knicks team to the tune of 146 points in the most recent meeting. Look for the Bucks to take advantage of their firepower to earn a win here. |
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12-22-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Kings | 105-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix is arguably a better defensive team than Sacramento, but I’m not sure the Suns will be able to take full advantage of the Kings’ defensive flaws. The Suns have scored more than 112 points just twice in their last seven outings overall, and it looks like Phoenix rely on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker way too much. On the other side, the Kings might be vulnerable following that thrashing at the hands of the Celtics. It’s hard to trust Sacramento’s defense, so I’m backing the Suns to keep it close and hopefully upset the Kings. Phoenix should be able to slow the pace down and force Sacramento into half-court basketball which is crucial for the Suns in this matchup. |
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12-18-23 | Nets v. Jazz +4 | 108-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even if the Jazz don't win, there's little chance that this game won't come down to the wire. Utah only has two home games that ended with a loss by at least five points and one of those was opening night. At the very least, the Jazz +4 is the best way to bet this game. Turnovers kill Utah's offense, but Brooklyn is the worst defense at forcing them. The Jazz's dominant offensive rebounding will also give them ample opportunity against a team allowing 122.8 points during their current road trip. Bet on a tight game, if not another Utah home win. |
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12-17-23 | Warriors -5.5 v. Blazers | 118-114 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing poorly and each has gone 1-2 ATS in the last three. The difference is that Golden State is 7-3-0 ATS in the last 10, and has been playing better overall. The Warriors have already beaten the Trail Blazers once this season and have taken eight of the last 10 meetings, going 6-3-1 ATS. The Trail Blazers are just a mess right now, the kind of team who can help Golden State right the ship. |
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12-17-23 | Magic v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is atop the Southeast Division but they have done most of their damage at home, going 11-2 at the Amway Center compared to a 5-6 road mark on the year. We saw the Magic struggle in their matchup against the Celtics Friday night in a game where Boston didn’t have Horford or Porzingis in the mix, yet they still won by 17. Boston is a perfect 13-0 at home this season with only two of those games decided by six points or less. The Celtics are a dangerous team on the offensive end and they get the job done making life tough for opposing squads defensively. Look for this game to go in favor of Boston as Tatum, Brown and company do their part once again. |
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12-16-23 | Knicks v. Clippers -5.5 | 122-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Because New York plays on Friday, a line and total were not set for this game at the time this preview was written. That is irrelevant because Los Angeles should dominate this game. Not only will the Knicks be fatigued after playing on Friday. New York is not only struggling, but they have given up at least 133 in three of the last four games. The Clippers are rolling. They have won their last five games by at least eight points. Look for the Clippers to win this game by at least 11. |
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12-16-23 | Mavs -5 v. Blazers | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The day off on Friday night will surely do this Mavericks team wonders, particularly superstar Doncic. Doncic has certainly been carrying the load for his team in Irving's absence. They have won four out of five games heading into Portland and Doncic is putting up MVP numbers. While the Mavs are susceptible to teams that can run an efficient offense, the Blazers are not that team. Additionally, the Blazers are not likely to slow down the Mavericks' high-octane offense. I expect another big night from Doncic and the superstar guard will find a teammate to play off of as he has throughout this current run. The Blazers give away too many possessions with turnovers and are last in the league in shooting. This one will be a big win for the Mavs. |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -4 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a dominant first quarter (30-19), the Celtics lost by 17 points to the Magic in their previous matchup this season. Orlando scored 94 points in the final three quarters, shooting 50.6 percent overall with a 60-40 scoring advantage in the paint and a +17 rebounding margin. The Magic put the C's on the free-throw line too much (37 FT attempts) and turned the ball over 18 times, but Boston struggled to find its stroke from three-point range (7-for-29). In Friday's rematch, I expect the Celtics to play a more complete game, knocking down more threes and holding their own inside. The Magic are unlikely to replicate their performance, as they rarely shoot the basketball that efficiently and won't dominate the Celtics again at the rim, as the C's boast the third-lowest opponent rim% in the league (57.2%). Porzingis, who only played 22 minutes in the first meeting, will do his duty as the team's rim protector, keeping Mo Wagner (27 points on 9-of-13 shooting) in check this time around. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers -8.5 v. Wizards | 123-137 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers are solid on the road, winning four of their last six road bouts including a win against the Hawks and Heat. The Washington Wizards continue to struggle and only have one home win all season. They have lost 15 of their last 16 games. This is an ideal matchup for Indiana who leads the NBA in scoring. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are last in points allowed and points conceded per 100 possessions. Indiana is sporting a dazzling 50.7% field goal percentage and opponents are shooting a stunning 50% against the Wizards. They have lost by at least 20 points in three consecutive games. |
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12-14-23 | Nets +9.5 v. Nuggets | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-11-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -12 | 127-132 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday night's NBA lineup features four games with double-digit spreads, hinting at potential blowouts, and the Trail Blazers vs. Clippers game is no exception. The matchup looks particularly challenging for Portland, prompting me to side with the Clippers, who are favored by a significant margin. Portland's situation is tough, with key players Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon, and Deandre Ayton all questionable due to injuries. Given that they're already struggling offensively, ranking last in the league, the potential absence or limited capacity of these scorers could severely hamper their performance. The Clippers, in contrast, are in good health and riding a three-game winning streak. Statistically, Los Angeles has a 6-5 record against the spread and a 7-4 overall record when scoring above 112.4 points. Additionally, they have an ATS record of 6-4 and an 8-2 overall record when holding opponents below 105.5 points. Considering these factors, I expect the Clippers to have a strong showing and comfortably handle Portland on their home court. |
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12-11-23 | Nets +5.5 v. Kings | 118-131 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-11-23 | Cavs v. Magic -135 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando will put its disappointing performance against Cleveland two games ago behind it with a convincing victory over the Cavs at home on Monday night. I don't expect the Magic to shoot the basketball as inefficiently from three-point range and they should have a serious advantage on the glass with Mobley potentially out or playing through a knee injury. Cleveland shot lights out in the last matchup between these teams, which is unlikely to happen twice against Orlando's defense (4th in defensive rating). The Cavs won't shoot the three-ball as well (41.9%) as they did in that game and are unlikely to get enough easy looks around the rim, as the Magic rank ninth in opponent rim FG%. |
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12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has played solid basketball but they have yet to run into a team like the Pacers. Indiana can slice and dice teams offensively, as we’ve seen throughout the in-season tournament, led by the explosive Haliburton. Taking down a pair of division leaders in the Celtics and Bucks is no easy feat, much less under the pressure of a knockout stage situation like Indiana has faced. The Pacers seem unflappable and the Lakers, even with their pedigree and the duo of James plus Davis, isn’t going to rattle this Indiana squad. In a game that ends up being decided late, the Pacers’ youth and depth proves critical as they earn the NBA Cup crown. Take the points here to be safe but don’t be surprised if the Pacers win outright. |
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12-08-23 | Mavs -8 v. Blazers | 125-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Malcolm Brogdon exited the Warriors game because of right knee soreness. Jerami Grant (concussion) didn’t play last Wednesday, and he could easily miss the Mavericks game. Anfernee Simmons’ return is a huge boost for the Trail Blazers’ offense, but I cannot go against the Mavs, who just beat Utah by 50 points. The Blazers defend the 3-point line very well, but the Mavs have enough weapons to attack the rim. Dallas will push the ball in transition a lot, and the Trail Blazers will struggle to contain the Mavs in transition. |
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12-08-23 | Bulls -125 v. Spurs | 121-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls will come out on top in this one, as it's a case of two teams going in opposite directions. Chicago has won three in a row and has momentum going for the first time since what seems like last season. For the Spurs, they can't find a win or any piece of success and even with the injuries that Chicago is dealing with, the Spurs will struggle to find answers. Vucevic is a key piece that can disrupt San Antonio's young frontcourt and quickly get them into trouble, while DeRozan is an experienced scorer himself who should have no issues finding offense. The Spurs simply lack of the elite levels on both ends right now for anyone to find much confidence in them. As mentioned, the Bulls have covered the spread in three straight and will make it a fourth in this one. |
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12-08-23 | Pistons v. Magic -10.5 | 91-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are a train wreck wrapped in a dumpster fire with a nice coating of Three Mile Island mixed in at this point. Eighteen straight losses have piled up as the Pistons’ last victory came back on October 28 against the Bulls. Going on the road against the Magic here isn’t a good matchup for them as their lone road win came against Charlotte back on October 26. Orlando has dropped two straight after a nine-game win streak but they are taking on a team that has had issues all season long. The Magic is 9-2 at home this season while the Pistons are only 1-9 on the road entering this game. Orlando should take care of business here and get back in the win column. |
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12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game should be another tight one, although overtime is unlikely to strike again. Dating back to last December, the Nets have taken three trips to Atlanta. They're 1-2 in those contests, with each loss coming by exactly two points. On the court (again) this season, Brooklyn should have the edge in overall shooting (especially from deep) and a slight rebounding edge. Atlanta should win at the free throw line and have a slight advantage with turnovers. This game should be tight, with the Nets potentially pulling out the win. Taking them to cover is the best bet. |
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12-05-23 | Suns +1.5 v. Lakers | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers have had Phoenix’s number of late but one has to wonder if they can maintain that momentum here. Los Angeles hasn’t faced the Durant/Booker combination in either meeting this season. In the first matchup, Booker and Beal both missed the contest while in the second meeting, Beal played one of his three games to date while Booker was out. We just saw Booker have a big game against Memphis Saturday night and Durant has been solid as well. The Lakers have their 1-2 punch of Davis and James though you always have to be concerned with the injury bug with those guys. Phoenix is motivated to earn a win here against a team that has beaten them four straight times and they want a shot at the NBA Cup crown. Give the edge to the Suns here as they earn the win. |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans v. Kings -150 | 127-117 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has had their issues on the road this season, going just 3-6 as the visiting team, including three straight defeats. The Pelicans dropped back-to-back games in Salt Lake City against the Jazz before getting dumped by the Bulls Saturday night. New Orleans beat the Kings twice earlier this season but both those games came at home. Sacramento is a stellar 6-2 at home on the season and they just downed the defending champs Saturday night. New Orleans got a boost to their rotation with the return of Murphy III Saturday night but their road woes against a confident Sacramento team burn them here. Take the Kings as they advance to the semifinals. |
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12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -4.5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets are currently facing a challenging phase, having lost their last two games and conceding at least 121 points in each. This streak of losses has brought them down to a .500 record. In a recent matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers in L.A., the Rockets narrowly lost by just one point but managed to cover the spread. The Lakers, on the other hand, have a record of 6-4 against the spread and 7-3 overall when they score more than 107.3 points. Additionally, they are 5-5 against the spread and 8-2 overall when allowing fewer than 110.9 points. Despite LeBron James being listed as questionable, the Lakers are expected to perform strongly in their return home after a four-game road trip. The Rockets, who have not secured a road win this season, are likely to face another setback in this game. It's anticipated that the Lakers will excel on both ends of the floor, securing a win, covering the spread, and handing the Rockets their third consecutive loss. |
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12-01-23 | Nuggets -123 v. Suns | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Denver Nuggets have demonstrated a strong track record in their recent matchups against the Phoenix Suns, securing victories in 4 of their last 6 encounters. Additionally, from a betting perspective, the Nuggets have shown notable consistency, covering the spread in 7 out of their last 10 games against the Suns. Despite the potential disadvantage due to injuries, the Nuggets still hold considerable potential to cover the 2.5-point spread, especially if Devin Booker remains sidelined for the Suns. |
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11-30-23 | Hawks -7.5 v. Spurs | 137-135 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio has lost 12 straight games and haven’t won since downing the Suns in back-to-back road games October 31 and November 2. The Spurs are a dismal 1-8 at home this season and they are trying to get their young players up to speed, which of course, leads to a lot of growing pains. Atlanta has been up and down this season but they have a variety of guys that can pile up points in a hurry. San Antonio has a generational talent in Wembenyama but he’s still adapting to the NBA style. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a team full of guys that have been around and contributed at this level for a while. Young and Murray lead the way as the Hawks cruise to a victory to get back to the .500 mark on the season. |
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11-29-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Facing a degree of uncertainty, the Denver Nuggets are dealing with the potential absence of key players Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray, all listed as questionable for the upcoming game. Despite these concerns, the Nuggets are still favored by 6 points in their home game, a confidence likely bolstered by the Houston Rockets' challenging schedule, as they enter this game without any days of rest. Denver's performance against the spread stands at 7-8, but they have an impressive 12-3 overall record when they score more than 105.5 points in a game. The Rockets, on the other hand, showed a strong effort in their last game against the Mavericks. However, their struggle on the road is evident, having lost all six away games this season. This pattern is expected to continue in their upcoming matchup. The Nuggets, coming off a solid win, are anticipated to maintain their momentum and secure another victory in this encounter. |
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11-29-23 | Lakers -7 v. Pistons | 133-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers come into Detroit with a chip on their collective shoulders following a 44-point loss to the Sixers on Monday night. James' cryptic response about the team needing changes quickly should put fear in the hearts of any Laker who doesn't have a firm spot on the roster. In the short term, the Lakers should be able to dominate a Pistons' team that has lost 14 straight games. The Lakers have struggled recently as well, mainly due to injuries to several key bench players such as Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and Vincent. Luckily, the Pistons are also banged up with two key shooters out in Brogdonovich and Harris. The loss of both players has hampered the team's shooting from outside and forced them to be a team that relies on points in the paint. The presence of Davis in the paint should hamper some of those plans on Wednesday night. The Lakers are 3rd in the NBA in field goal percentage and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. I expect them to dominate the game on both ends on Wednesday and pick up an easy win. |
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11-28-23 | Warriors +1.5 v. Kings | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In their first matchup, the Golden State Warriors triumphed over the Sacramento Kings 122-114 without Draymond Green. In their second encounter, the Warriors narrowly won 102-101, but the Kings were missing key player De'Aaron Fox. Draymond Green's absence in the last five games has been felt by the Warriors, particularly in their defense, but his return is expected to bolster the team's offensive opportunities for players like Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins. In the previous games, Domantas Sabonis had a significant impact against the Warriors, and De'Aaron Fox scored 41 points in their first meeting. Both teams have been strong offensively, with the Warriors ranked 12th and the Kings 10th in offensive rating. However, the game's outcome may hinge on the Warriors' defense, currently 12th in the NBA, and the inconsistent performance of the Kings' role players. The return of Draymond Green could elevate the Warriors' defense. The Kings' bench struggled in both meetings, and they may be without starter Keegan Murray due to a back injury. Additionally, the Kings' defensive rating is only 21st in the league. The Warriors, aiming for a three-way tie for first place in In-Season Tournament Group C, will rely on Curry for another strong performance and plan to challenge the Kings by focusing on players other than Sabonis or Fox. |
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11-28-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder come in just a game behind Minnesota in this one and will not only cover the spread but will come out with the win too. The Thunder have been able to put it all together on both ends of the court and have the length to match the Timberwolves, which is something many others have struggled with. The Thunder have the best player in this game in SGA and with Holmgren coming along nicely too, especially from the perimeter, it gives this team quite a few more options to lean on. The key advantage for Oklahoma City is on the offensive end, where they are one of the league's most efficient teams, which translates well to success on the road. They have confidence and momentum, and their youngsters won't be daunted being on the road, while covering the spread in all but one of their last seven games, shows a trend building. |
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11-28-23 | Bucks v. Heat +3 | 131-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks have had their difficulties with the Heat, going 2-2 last season during the regular season but losing in five games in the opening round of the playoffs to the Heat. In fact, the Bucks are now 0-3 in their last four games in Miami. The Heat have not just won the four games, they've done so handily in each case. The four home wins against the Bucks have come by an average of just over 12.5 points per contest. While Lillard's presence changes the dynamic somewhat, the Bucks lose a key defender like Jrue Holiday in the process. Holiday was capable of guarding both the point guard and Jimmy Butler at times but the Bucks won't have that luxury with Lillard, an inferior defender to Holiday. I like the Heat to exploit their matchup advantages in this game and pull out a win over the Bucks. If you are feeling aggressive, forego the points and take this game on the money line. |
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11-26-23 | Blazers v. Bucks -12.5 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won six of their last seven games and six straight home games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 121 points per game while making over 49 percent of their shots. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They have also protected the ball well and won’t give the Trailblazers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Trailblazers aren’t very good defensively and they play worse on the road where they are giving up more than 114 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bucks in this game. The Trailblazers have lost eight of their last nine games and four straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 110 points per game. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Bucks and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bucks, who average more than seven steals per game. The Bucks aren’t great defensively, but they play better at home, so expect them to keep Portland’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the spread. |
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11-22-23 | Clippers -8 v. Spurs | 109-102 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won two straight games. They are playing well offensively, averaging more than 112 points per game. They are very good at rebounding the ball and very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Spurs a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Spurs have struggled offensively this season and they've given up at least 120 points in four straight games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Clippers in this game. The Spurs have lost nine straight games and six straight home games. They have struggled offensively and scored less than 110 points in three of their last four games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Clippers and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances. They have also been very careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Clippers, who averaged more than 11 steals per game in their last three games. The Clippers have played well defensively, giving up less than 105 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to keep San Antonio’s offense in check. Go with Los Angeles to cover the spread. |
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11-20-23 | Clippers v. Spurs +8.5 | 124-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers, despite being the superior team on paper, have faced their own set of challenges, losing 6 out of their last 7 games. Their sole victory in this stretch was clinched by a last-second three-pointer from James Harden. Adding to their woes, the Clippers haven't secured a single road win this season. While backing the San Antonio Spurs isn't particularly appealing, the prospect of favoring the Clippers with a significant point spread on the road (-9) is equally unenticing. In this scenario, opting for the Spurs with the points seems like the more prudent choice. It's noteworthy that when the Clippers score over 124.2 points, their record against the spread is 0-2, mirroring their overall record in such high-scoring games. |
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11-19-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 104-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets dismantled the Lakers last week, but Los Angeles missed Anthony Davis. Houston outscored the Lakers 68-42 in the paint while going 14-for-33 from downtown, whereas Los Angeles made just seven of its 25 shots from deep. Since then, the Lakers have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, though two of those four wins have come against Portland. The Lakers should have learned the lesson, so I’m backing them to beat the Rockets and cover a 5.5-point spread. Davis has struggled a bit of late, but his presence should help the Lakers to outlast Houston this time around. This is not the same Rockets team that lost 60 games last season. But they are still young and inexperienced, and the Rockets have gone 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS over their three road contests in 2023-24. |
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11-18-23 | Grizzlies -145 v. Spurs | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs will have to deal with fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back set which is the only reason why am I taking the Grizzlies to cover. Frankly, this is the clash between a couple of slumping teams, and it could go either way, but the Grizzlies had three days to prepare themselves for the Spurs. In addition, Memphis looks like a better defensive team than San Antonio, though by a slight margin. Hopefully, the Grizzlies will extend their dominance over the Spurs and beat the number along the way. |
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11-17-23 | Lakers -8.5 v. Blazers | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers are 2-0 in an inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament, looking to make another step toward the knock-out round. The Trail Blazers have gone 1-1 thus far and will have a mountain to climb in this matchup given their injury woes. Portland has dropped five straight games by an average margin of 10.2 points. If Malcolm Brogdon misses his fourth straight game, the Lakers will have a nice chance to cover an 8.5-point spread. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games played on Friday, and I’m expecting the Lakers to extend this streak. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a game that should be low-scoring, the Brooklyn Nets have an excellent chance of pulling off a road upset. Their offense is much better, especially when it comes to hitting threes. Brooklyn attempts a high volume of threes and is the league's third-most accurate team. The Heat have allowed opponents to hit 38.6% of their triples. Unless Miami takes fewer midrange shots, they won't shoot well in this one. The Nets are top 10 at forcing midrange misses and three-point misses. Both defenses are solid, so it'll come down to making shots. Brooklyn has that advantage, and it should lead them to a sixth straight win over the Heat. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Suns to pull away in this game thanks to the return of Booker to the starting lineup and Gordon off of the bench. The duo should allow the Suns to spread the floor against a Timberwolves team playing the second game of a back-to-back and coming off a highly emotional game with the Warriors. Durant should get more minutes of rest in this one with his all-star teammate back and Beal should continue to improve as he gets his wind up after missing the entire season prior to last week. Minnesota has been red-hot but I think it will be too hard for them to muster up the emotions needed in this one. |
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11-14-23 | Clippers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2Â Units The Nuggets will be making do without point guard Jamal Murray for the rest of the month of November as he recovers from a hamstring strain. So far so good for the champs with Reggie Jackson filling in nicely at point guard, primarily as a scorer with Jokic handling the passing duties. The Clippers still look like a team trying to figure things out with just one ball for several aging stars. Tyronne Lue must determine the best rotations to get his four veterans on the floor in the right situations. Malone's job for Denver is much easier with everything going through Jokic. Jokic has two triple-doubles in the three games that Murray has missed thus far as he takes a more prominent role in distributing the ball. Denver's defense has also been excellent this season and they should be looking forward to defending a Clippers team that looks disjointed right now. The Clippers have also been sloppy with the basketball and that should also feed into the Nuggets' offense. The most disheartening thing for the Clippers thus far has been their feeble record despite having one of the easiest schedules to start the season, ranking 28th in the league. Go with the Nuggets who will have more possessions, ranking 6th in turnovers, and knock down more shots with the league's top field goal percentage. |
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11-13-23 | Cavs -142 v. Kings | 120-132 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings have been able to win each of the last two games without Fox but are just 2-3 overall without him this season. The Cavs offer a challenging matchup with a very quick guard in Darius Garland who can fill it up from long range and at the basket. He will force the Kings to offer help on him which should open the floor up a bit for Mitchell. The Cavs will also take advantage of a slower-paced Kings team without Fox. They are sixth in the NBA in fastbreak points and should be able to get up and down the floor against the Kings. The Cavs have also played the fifth toughest schedule in the NBA thus far compared to the Kings, who have played the 25th toughest schedule. |
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11-13-23 | Bulls v. Bucks -9 | 109-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great spot to back Milwaukee. The Bucks just lost two gams on the road, and return home hungry for a win. You cannot keep Giannis and the Bucks down for long, and Giannis has proven he only needs a little help to get things done. The Bulls do not have an answer for Antetokounmpo, Lavine and DeRozan are too small, and Vucevic is not quick enough to stay with him. That leaves Patrick Williams, who was benched for his poor play, or Torrey Craig to matchup with the former MVP. Add on top of this, Chicago is on the tail end of a back to back. The Bulls play a home game on Sunday night, then must travel to Milwaukee for this game the next night. Teams rarely play well on the second night of back-to-backs, and Chicago has not been playing well this season to begin with. Bucks return to home, will face a tired Chicago team, and get back in the win column after a couple losses. |
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11-12-23 | Blazers v. Lakers -9.5 | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The injury-depleted Trail Blazers will have a mountain to climb at Crypto.com Arena. I’ve mentioned their offensive struggles and if Malcolm Brogdon doesn’t suit up, the Lakers will come out on top with ease. Frankly, the Lakers have struggled so far this season, allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions (tied-19th in the NBA). The Trail Blazers surrender 109.8 points per 100 possessions (9th) mostly because they defend the 3-point line well (33.7%, 7th), but the Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting and will attack the rim all night long in this matchup. |
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11-11-23 | Cavs v. Warriors -163 | 118-110 | Loss | -163 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavs won on the back of their defense, holding the Warriors to 36.2% shooting from the field. Golden State went 16-for-41 from deep but was outscored 58-24 in the paint. Furthermore, the Warriors missed ten of their 30 free-throw attempts, and they should improve in front of the home audience. The Cavs’ interior defense is one of the best in the NBA. But they struggle to defend the 3-point line and own the eighth-worst defensive rebound percentage (74.5%). The Warriors should’ve learned the lesson. They need to speed things up and force the Cavs to run up and down the floor. |
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11-10-23 | Lakers v. Suns -155 | 122-119 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Devin Booker will probably miss his fourth straight game due to an injury, but I’m still backing the Suns even if Anthony Davis suits up for the Lakers. Phoenix blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in that five-point defeat at the Lakers in Week 1, playing without both Booker and Bradley Beal, and I’m expecting the Suns to get revenge in front of the home audience. The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last ten games overall, 1-6 ATS in their previous seven contests against the Western Conference, and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 tilts against the Suns. Phoenix is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with the Lakers. |
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11-09-23 | Hawks -153 v. Magic | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come in off losses in their previous game and one has to wonder if the altitude of Mexico City will take a toll on them. If that is the case, Atlanta has the healthier rotation to work with as Orlando is without Carter Jr. while a trio of other contributors are questionable here. The Hawks are an explosive offensive team while Orlando has relied on defense to have success in the early going. This seems like one of those games where Murray and Young lead the way for Atlanta. The Hawks have eight guys averaging in double figures and with the Magic banged up, they don’t have the weapons offensively to keep up in this contest. |
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11-08-23 | Lakers -145 v. Rockets | 94-128 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dillon Brooks told the media that he is ready to lock down LeBron James. Last time Brooks tried these mind games the Lakers sent Brooks' Grizzlies home from the playoffs, and the Grizzlies were so upset they said they would not take Brooks back under any circumstance. LeBron may not say it publicly, but he feeds off this stuff. LeBron is highly motivated to be recognized as the best player of all time, and goes hard whenever he is challenged. This is also a tough spot to catch the Lakers, they are healthy, on a two-game losing streak, and believe they got robbed in the last game by the refs. Referees are human, do not be surprised if they over-correct here and send LeBron to the line 16-20 times. The Rockets are not a deep team, they get barely any production outside of their starting lineup, and they gave everything they had to beat Sacramento twice. The Lakers are the better team analytically, their offensive and defensive efficiency ranks much higher than Houston's and they just poked the bear with the LeBron comments. |
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11-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets +2 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Sacramento was a force last season as they won the Pacific Division title while their run and gun offense was a force. This season, they have had their struggles shooting the ball, entering Sunday fourth-worst in the league in field goal percentage as a team. Without Fox, it puts a lot of pressure on Mitchell to try and step up to be a facilitator. Houston has looked good in their last two games, wins over Charlotte and Sacramento, and look to make it three straight wins at home. This Rockets team won’t be the same pushover they have been in recent seasons. If Fox was playing, the Kings would be the easy call here but without him, Sacramento muddles their way through. Take the Rockets at home in this one. |
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11-06-23 | Celtics -138 v. Wolves | 109-114 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The league leaders in offensive rating will be visiting the leaders in defensive rating tonight as the Boston Celtics visit the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Celtics offense has been outstanding as they are averaging 126.4 points per game, nearly 4 more than the next best side. They also rank 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage, and that ability to attack from the outside is what will cause the Timberwolves the most issues here. With Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford both being effective shooters, it should help pull Rudy Gobert away from the basket, opening driving lanes. The hosts are also bottom of the NBA in 3-point percentage themselves. It has left them making close to 6 fewer 3-pointers per game than the Celtics, and that will be tough to overcome. The addition of Porzingis has turned the Celtics into a force on the defensive end too. The rim protection he provides has left them allowing fewer paint points to opponents than the Timberwolves currently do. With the visitors also in the top 10 in the league in fast break points per game, they should have success pushing the tempo and beating the hosts rim protectors down the floor. It looks like it could be a long night for the Timberwolves defense, so back the Celtics to cover the relatively small spread. |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +2.5 | 112-100 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trailblazers have won three straight games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better offensively during their winning streak, averaging 108 points per game. They’ve taken advantage of their chances at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. Their rebounding has been good and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Grizzlies were one of the best defensive teams in the league last season, but they haven’t looked good so far, and they’re giving up more than 120 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Trailblazers in this game. The Grizzlies have lost six straight games and three straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road where they are scoring less than 110 points per game. They also struggled at the charity stripe and barely made over 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Trailblazers and they’ve been careless with the ball, turning it over more than 15 times per game, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Trailblazers, who are averaging more than nine steals per game in their last three games. With the Blazers holding opponents under 105 points per game in their last three games, expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Portland to win outright. |
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11-04-23 | Bulls v. Nuggets -8.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here and their third game in four nights so fatigue could be a factor. Obviously, you’ll have to keep an eye out to see if any of the star players on either side sit out, which would obviously change the dynamic. With that said, the Nuggets are the defending champions and they have one of, if not the, top player in the league with Jokic. Denver is stingy defensively, extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor and they have the better talent to work with compared to Chicago. We’ve seen the Bulls struggle to shoot the ball with any consistency this season. Look for the Nuggets to prevail at home for this contest. |
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11-03-23 | Mavs +7 v. Nuggets | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll gladly take Dallas to cover, with Denver coming off a blowout loss and dealing with injuries to stars Murray and Jokic! The Mavs have the third-highest schedule-adjusted offensive rating, including the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage (58.2%). They have been especially dominant in the paint (67.7 rim FG%) and from three-point range (41.0%). I expect Doncic (33.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG) to have another monster game, leading the Mavs to an easy cover against the Nuggets. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz +1.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will be rested and ready to go despite playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight. They will also challenge the Magic's preference for a slower-paced game won in the paint by spacing the floor and forcing Orlando to defend well outside the paint. Orlando is playing the fourth and final game of this trip and is 1-2 thus far, losing each of the last two contests. Orlando's defense has progressively gotten worse on the trip highlighted by the 118 points allowed against the Clippers. The Jazz were able to defeat the Clippers earlier this season because of their ability to match the scoring of LA from long range. Expect the Jazz to stretch the floor and keep the Magic off balance on Thursday night to pick up the home win. |
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11-01-23 | Bulls v. Mavs -185 | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams could be without key players, as Irving and LaVine are questionable to play. That said, even without Kyrie, I believe the Mavs have the talent to cover at home. This season, Dallas is seventh in schedule-adjusted offensive rating, fourth in effective field goal percentage, ninth in rim FG%, and fourth in three-point shooting percentage. That is partially due to the great start by Doncic, who is averaging 39.0 points on 55.6 percent shooting, including 48.6 percent shooting from three. The 24-year-old is also leading the team in rebounds (11.7) and assists (9.7). The team is also benefiting from solid contributions by Tim Hardaway Jr. (19.0 PPG), who should fill in just fine if Irving can't suit up. Chicago is a pretty good team, but it's likely to struggle without its leading scorer, LaVine (24.5 PPG). Even with the veteran shooter, the Bulls are dead last in effective field goal percentage (46.5%), 24th in rim FG% (57.8%), 25th in mid-range FG% (35.7%), and 26th in three-point FG% (29.4%). That won't be easy to fix on the road, even if LaVine can play. |
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10-30-23 | Jazz v. Nuggets -8 | 102-110 | Push | 0 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even playing for the second straight day, whereas the Jazz are rested, home-court advantage should neutralize that aspect. Then, it's simply a question of whether or not the Jazz defense can stop Denver's offense. The answer based on what has transpired this season is an emphatic no. The Nuggets offense, currently the best in adjusted offensive rating, won't struggle to score at all against Utah. Scoring won't come as easy for the Jazz, who won't get many good looks from deep against Denver. A 4-0 start comes easily for the Nuggets. |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have been turning the ball over a lot thus far. Also, their defense has struggled a lot, so I’m backing the Clippers to bounce back from a tough loss in Salt Lake City. Los Angeles should play better defense in front of the home audience and take full advantage of the Spurs’ D. San Antonio has allowed a staggering 132 points in the paint through its first two outings in 2023-24, and the Spurs will struggle to contain the Clippers’ drives to the hoop. The Clippers went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Spurs last regular season. San Antonio has only covered once in its last four road games against the Clippers, who trounced the Spurs 138-100 in their previous encounter at Crypto.com Arena. |
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10-28-23 | Jazz +5.5 v. Suns | 104-126 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm going to assume that Booker misses this game, because there's no reason to play him with an injury that could linger and needs rest. In that case, Durant will have to score 40 in this one and while he might, his supporting cast is very weak without Booker and Beal. Markkanen, in a lot of ways, is a poor man's Durant, in the way he can score at that size and Collins gives them another capable big man scorer. That sizeable frontcourt will be difficult to defend for the smaller Suns. |
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10-27-23 | Nets v. Mavs -6 | 120-125 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has more weapons and has their identity figured out early in the season, while Brooklyn doesn't. The Maverick's backcourt of Doncic and Irving can be relied upon to score at least 40 points per night. Both guards have the ability to penetrate and draw the defense in, and that is why the front office surrounded the team with shooters. Williams, Kleber, Hardaway Jr. and Green all hit multiple threes in the opener. This creates more spacing and synergy in the offense. The Nets cannot rely on Cam Thomas to score 36 every night. Clearly, that is not the plan, but what is Brooklyn's identity? Ben Simmons no longer plays like an All-Star, and it has yet to be seen if Mikal Bridges can truly carry an NBA team as the top player on the squad. Dallas outrebounded the taller San Antonio in the opener, and can dominate inside here as well. Take the Mavericks as the better team in this early-season matchup. |
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10-26-23 | Suns +6 v. Lakers | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The Suns came out and took down the Warriors in game one on the road despite not having Beal available. While Beal's availability is still in question, the Suns should have enough fire to take down the Lakers. The Lakers will be a work in progress over the first part of the season. They have to adjust to James' playing time limitations and a roster full of new players. The loss of Jarred Vanderbilt to start the season is important to the Lakers' rotation. With Vanderbilt out, Prince has been put in a starting spot which weakens what could be a deep Lakers' bench. The Suns showed their own depth in the opener with 16 points off the bench from Gordon. Gordon will be a stalwart for the Suns' second unit and allow the team to thrive when either Durant or Booker is off the floor. The Suns also showed more toughness in the opener with Nurkic now at center. He earned a double-double on Tuesday night and helped to create space for Durant in the post. Word to the wise, jump on this line quickly. If Beal is cleared, this line will drop closer to one or two points. |
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10-25-23 | Mavs -160 v. Spurs | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Dallas is far from perfect, but they're a team that can score on anyone. Their two stars are playing, which will stress the rest of a Spurs roster that was the NBA's worst defensive outfit a year ago. The Mavs have won seven of the last eight meetings (four straight in San Antonio) and with a small spread, take them to win again |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 89-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The spread is pretty wide here, but after the last two games, where the Nuggets won by double digits on the road, I think it is warranted. The Nuggets came into this series as a heavy favorite and just a flat out better team. Miami has been overachieving all season and Erik Spoelstra h as been making the right adjustments, outcoaching everyone is his wake. But he met his match with Malone, who has been one step ahead of the Heat. First he used the Nugget's size to his advantage, and then when Miami adjusted, they went outside and punished them from three. The Nuggets also shut down the role players that killed the Celtics and let Butler and Adebayo do their thing. A championship is so close they can taste it, and they will take care of business in front of the home crowd. Take the Nuggets to cover. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets -159 v. Heat | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have dominated this series and they show no signs of slowing down in this one. Jokic remains the most dominant player on the planet and with Miami having no answers on either end for him, he's the perfect player for a road team to play through. Will Murray's absence is a slight concern, the Nuggets have been able to find plenty of scoring throughout the roster. The Heat continue to be cold from three-point range, especially front their backcourt, which won't serve them well in this one. Miami's offense has been brutal through the first three games and there's no doubt that Denver will run away with the game four win. Additionally, according to covers.com, Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. On the other hand, the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Expect Erik Spoelstra to go back to the zone he used in most of the Boston series and that will help slow down the Nuggets. That defensive gimmick will help a lot more in Game 2 when the Heat have their legs back since they have Friday and Saturday off. There's no doubt that going seven games against Boston had an effect on their performance on Thursday along with the altitude. Strus, Caleb Martin and Robinson combined for 2-for-23 in Game 1 and all three will bounce back in Game 2. Martin has been terrific in the postseason, averaging 13.5 points and shooting 44% from beyond the arc. But the biggest factor is Butler getting a couple of days off to rest his ankle and he will be looking to get to the line a lot more in this game. The Heat will push the Nuggets to the limit in Game 2 and will shoot a lot more than two free throws. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm usually not about chalk and big numbers in this situation, but Miami just had one of the most heartbreaking losses in the history of the NBA playoffs. Not to mention that they nearly won a game where Butler and Adebayo's jump shots were M.I.A. Butler's performance has regressed in the last two games where he's starting to show some fatigue. He's getting no lift on his jumpers and drives and it shows where Boston had blocked his shot 10 times in this series. Boston has also found a way to slow down Adebayo with the length of Robert Williams and the experience of Al Horford. Martin, Max Strus, Vincent and Duncan Robinson are not enough to defeat a more athletic Boston team even without Malcolm Brogdon. Tatum will go bonkers at home in Game 7. |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the series starting to trend back in Boston's direction, there's no doubt that the Celtics will be able to force a game seven. Beyond the depth advantages, this is a team that has shown playoff success on the road this postseason. For Miami, being without Vincent would be a massive issue, especially considering how strong he is on both ends. The last few games have seen Boston finding success again from three-point range and if that continues in this one, the Heat won't stand a chance. Additionally, Miami is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss for more than 10 points. For Boston, they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Heat in Miami. |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -150 | 113-111 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This series is over, for all intents and purposes, but I just can't see the Lakers getting swept. Veterans like James and Davis are too proud to let themselves get swept in front of Jack and the rest of their home crowd. The Nuggets are just a better team, and have been all season, and they'll make this interesting, but the Lakers will pull this one out down the stretch. The Nuggets are just 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. But look for a gentleman's sweep and for this thing to end in game 5 back in Denver. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are inexplicably three-point favorites in this one. What does Miami have to do to get some respect? I just don't see how you can favor the Celtics in this one, given that the Heat have not lost at home so far in the playoffs. The Celtics are the higher seed and the more talented team, but I have no confidence in their ability to close out a game in crunch time, especially against this Heat team, which has come up big time after time. The Celtics are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings versus the Heat. The Celtics could possibly win this but it would be only by a bucket late. Take the Heat getting the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I picked the Heat to cover in game 1 but I honestly did not expect them to actually win the game. Now they are 9 point underdogs and again, that feels like a lot. While I fully expect the Celtics to win in this game -- they have to or they are pretty much done. But Miami is not the type of team you blow out -- and 9 points is a lot. I just can't see the Celtics winning by double digits here. Miami won't shoot 52% from three again but they will play good enough defense and make enough big shots to keep this game close down the stretch. The Celtics will survive, but the Heat will cover. Take Miami getting the points. |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the third time in four years, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are squaring off in the Eastern Conference finals. Miami won the first go around in 2020 while the Celtics took care of business last year. Boston has had a tendency to play loose at home in the playoffs, and coming off that historic game 7 win, I see them having a letdown here. Miami will be rested and ready to go, looking to steal one here. In the four meeting between the two this year, three were decided by less than the spread for this game. This spread seems too big, so take the Heat here getting the points. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics -130 v. 76ers | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In many sports, particularly the NBA, there has traditionally been a situation where a team has to get over that hump and beat their perennial rivals after many unsuccessful attempts in the past. All past champions have had to get over that hump, just go back over the years. For the Sixers, that hump has been the Celtics, which have owned them. Is this the series where they put that demon to rest? Maybe. But I just have to believe that the Celtics are too good and too proud to go out like that. Boston brings in Thursday and finds a way to win. Take Boston. |
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05-10-23 | Heat +3.5 v. Knicks | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have been beasts against the spread, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. That includes all four games of this series. Also, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in New York. Likewise, the Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. I have to stick with the battle-tested Heat in this one to continue their streak of ATS wins. They have been here before and know how to win on the road. Now, I actually think the Knicks find a way to pull this game out, but it will be a slim margin and the Heat will cover. Take Miami here. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets are primed to get back into the win column as they return home and there's little doubt that they'll return to their games one and two form. Denver has been dominant at home this season and considering how strong their depth has been in those home games, that is sure to be a massive advantage in this one. They won't let Booker and Durant continue to beat them and with little help beyond those two on Phoenix, keeping pace will be difficult for the Suns. Additionally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have largely outplayed the Sixers in this series, yet here we are, tied at 2 games apiece. The series shifts back to Boston and after a bitter, bitter defeat on Sunday afternoon in game 4, the Celtics will come out fired up and focused. They went from taking complete control of this series and having a chance to close it out to now facing a critical game where a loss would result in an elimination game in Philly. After losing game 5 at home to the Bucks in the second round last year, and needing to win games 6 and 7 to advance, I can't see history repeating itself here. Take the Celtics here. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors might not win this game outright but they will find a way to be in it going into the final seconds. Curry continues to be elite but he'll find a way to get the supporting cast far more involved in this one. Steve Kerr did a great job after Davis' game-one dominance to make adjustments and there's no doubt that he'll be able to find a way to disrupt him again in game four. The supporting cast showed up for the Lakers in game three but given their own inconsistencies, it'll be expected to see a drop-off, especially with confidence high. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. |
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05-08-23 | Knicks v. Heat -180 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This series is over, I believe. The Heat are just the better team right now and they have mostly dominated this series. The one game the Knicks won, it was home in a must-win game and they still barely won. I just don't see the Knicks being able to beat the Heat in Miami. The Knicks will keep it close because they play good defense and because this is another must-win game. But unlike Game 2 at Madison Square Garden, they won't be able to out Game 4 at the Kaseya Center in Miami. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics -135 v. 76ers | 115-116 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics lost focus in game 1 in a game they thought they were going to win easily. We saw a different, more focused team in games 2 and 3. The fact of the matter is, the Celtics are the superior team. They tend to get upset at home because they lose focus, but on the road, as we have seen the past few years, they really lock in and get focused and a focused Celtics team is hard to beat. This will be another close game but I like the Celtics to execute down the stretch as they just have too many weapons that can hurt you with a big shot. Take the Celtics. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks v. Heat -172 | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The best players on both of these teams are listed as questionable, so, obviously, if one or both, are out, that could change things dramatically. But I'm going to assume both Brunson and Butler play. and they are going to be close to full strength. That said, I have to give the Heat the advantage here. This will be a close game, as both teams play excellent defense and tend to keep games close. But, given that the Heat almost won in NYC without Butler, I like them to take care of business in their first game at home. Take the Heat. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Suns | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver might be hitting the road but they have a great chance to make it a 3-0 series lead and will at least keep it close in this one. They have far too much depth for Phoenix to run away with the game, even at home. Jokic and Murray continue to be one of the best duos in the league and their ability to dictate the game and generate efficient offense, will keep them within a possession without a doubt. Expect the offensive and defensive glass to be key as well, especially considering how strong the Nuggets have looked in that department. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Suns, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference semifinals and are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings against Denver. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The idea of the Lakers winning two in a row in such a short time frame, at the Chase Center, doesn't add up, as the Warriors will come away with the win to even the series. The Lakers had a great gameplan in using Lebron in unique ways but the Warriors now have that tape and there's no doubt that the defense will be better prepared. The frontcourt mismatch was expected to land in the Lakers' favor but with the way Looney has been playing, there's no doubt both teams have the ability to hit the offensive and defensive glass. Expect Golden State's depth to be too much for LA in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games, while the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -180 | 117-112 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State may only have one day off since their impressive win over the Kings but their ability to build off of that momentum will be crucial to them grabbing the win. Curry and Thompson have massive matchup advantages, while Looney has impressed over the last few weeks and casts some doubt over how much Davis might be able to dominate the frontcourt for the Lakers. This will be a close one but the perimeter shooting for Golden State will prove to be a massive difference in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games against a team with a losing road record. |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -5.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jimmy Butler injury looms large and given how much he has met to this team, his absence would be too much to overcome for this team. The Heat have struggled on the road overall this season and grabbing a win for the second-straight night in Madison Square Garden will be asking too much. For the Knicks, they have a few injuries of their own that they're worrying about but with their scoring depth at hand, finding success on the offensive end will extend this game and make things difficult for Miami to keep pace. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two sides. |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -175 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Murray forged his playoff reputation in the 2020 Orlando bubble with multiple 50-point games to lead Denver to the Western Conference finals, and this postseason, his first since that run three years ago, he has again become the team's catalyst. He had 34 points -- including six 3-pointers -- to spark the Nuggets' relatively easy win on Saturday night. He has scored 34 or more points in half of Denver's six playoff games this year, taking a lot of the offensive burden off Jokic, who had to carry the team in two short playoff runs in each of the two previous postseason trips. While some might be surprised at how the Nuggets manhandled the Suns on Saturday night, Murray is not. The Suns also have to figure out a way to stop Murray. Contesting shots wasn't a problem in Game 1, so one strategy will be to deny him the ball as much as possible. The Nuggets have been stellar at home, posting a 34-7 record there during the regular season. |
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05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -9 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics will roll in Monday's matchup and with the advantages across the board, there's no doubt that they'll start this series strong. Being without Embiid is going to be too much for the 76ers to overcome, on both ends of the court. The 76ers will match the scoring to keep pace with Tatum and Brown, let alone one of the deepest backcourts in the league. Their frontcourt will also have the advantage against Paul Reed. Add in a road game and have to shake some rust off, and it makes sense that this one is determined to be a double-digit win for Boston. Additionally, according to covers.com, Boston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings against the 76ers in Boston, and is 5-0 ATS against the 76ers in the last five meetings. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -190 | 108-101 | Loss | -190 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a Miami team that completely flipped the script based on the regular season. The Heat were dead last in scoring offense in the regular season but they lead the postseason field in that department heading into this game. Miami was devastating from beyond the arc against the Bucks but they are facing a Knicks team that turned back the clock defensively in the opening round. New York turned games into rock fights and slowed things down to a ridiculously snail-like pace. The Knicks held the Cavaliers to 44.2% shooting from the floor and 32.7% from three-point range in the opening round. Butler will need more help in this series if the Heat hope to advance. Give the advantage to the Knicks as they prevail in front of an amped-up crowd. |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -140 | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix was clicking on all cylinders offensively in the opening round against the Clippers but they may find a little stiffer challenge here against the Nuggets. The Suns were extremely proficient from the perimeter against LA but the Nuggets held Minnesota to 34.8% shooting from beyond the arc in the series. Booker was electric in the first round but he will have to step up and put those kinds of numbers up again. How the Suns defend Jokic and his versatility is going to be a critical factor in this series. Phoenix went 17-24 on the road this season in the regular season so their two road wins over the Clippers were a bit of a surprise. Meanwhile, Denver was 34-7 at home in the regular season and 3-0 in the postseason. The altitude is a major factor and that carries the Nuggets to a hard-fought win in Game 1. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -200 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies had the second best record in the West while the Lakers needed a late run to even make the play-in tournament. Yet, it seems like most people are favoring the Lakers. Maybe they are right as the Lakers are up 3-2 and have a chance to close it out at home. I think, ultimately, they get it done here. I just cannot see James letting this series go back to Memphis with an opportunity to end it in LA. Also, the Grizzlies are 0-4 against the spread in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 meetings with the Lakers overall. Take the Lakers here. |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I just don't think the Kings are ready to go down, and they certainly won't go down without a fight. They showed that they can go toe to toe with the Warriors in the Chase Center, as they should have won game 4 but blew it late. That near miss will be top of mind Friday night. Of the five games played thus far, three of them have been decided by less than 7 points and another has been decided by 8 points. So these games have pretty much all been close, with all going down to the wire. Fox should be ready to go and I like the Kings to keep it close enough to cover. Take the Kings getting the points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | 128-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are riding a wave of momentum from the game five win and even if they don't win game six, they have all the tools and confidence to take it to within one possession. Not only are they at home but they also welcome Murray into the fold as well, which will give them plenty of offensive options beyond just Young. The Celtics have been solid but with the frontcourt struggling, the Hawks have been able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass, which is a trend bound to continue in this close one. Additionally, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Monday's disheartening and shocking loss, I fully expect to see an angry, focused Bucks team. They have no choice, because a loss ends their season -- and that would be embarrassing as they are the top seed and had the best record in the NBA. Giannis was great on Monday and that's a great sign. There is no way he lets his team lose at home. Middleton and Holiday were subpar and you can bet that Giannis will light a fire under them and they will bounce back with big games at home. This one has all the earmarks of a Milwaukee blowout, as Miami focuses on the game 6 closeout at home. Take the Bucks here giving up the points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies might be at home but the Lakers have already shown that they can muster up a performance strong enough to win on the road. Add in Lebron and Anthony Davis dominating on both ends and it's asking far too much of the Grizzlies to match that expected output. Morant is elite but without a ton of help in the scoring department, it's difficult to see an avenue where they keep pace with the Lakers. Add in injuries to the frontcourt and it's clear they are missing that advantage on the offensive and defensive glass. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns -12 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What exactly do the Clippers have left to play for? With Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George still sidelined, LA doesn't have a fighter's chance of advancing. The motivation to keep the score respectable isn't there, even in a closeout game. Russell Westbrook's hustle will go unappreciated if he's asked to carry too much of the offensive load, which isn't his forte. Phoenix has been on its A-game since dropping game one, beating Los Angeles inside-out. In game four, the Suns scored 48 points in the paint and outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 with 14 offensive rebounds. They also hit 9 of 22 shots from three (40.9%). While this is a large spread, I believe it's just. The Clippers, 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games playing on two days of rest, aren't suited for a battle in the valley on Tuesday. If this game's even close for more than a quarter, I'll be surprised. The Suns have the killer instinct required to put away a down and desperate Clippers team. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves +10 v. Nuggets | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota won't win this game but this series has shown that they'll at least be able to keep thing interesting and close in this game four showdown. The big men on Minnesota have had their way the last few games and their ability to improve this group's rebounding on both ends is sure to help. Anthony Edwards is the top scorer in this game and his ability to be explosive gives them another dimension towards keeping things close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Timberwolves are 29-7 ATS in the last 33 meetings in Denver. |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -190 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers are excelling on defense in this series, anchored by Davis. Los Angeles is giving up only 106.0 points per 100 possessions to Memphis through three games, and the Lakers lead the playoffs with 8.7 blocked shots per game. The Lakers are also securing almost 73% of available defensive rebounds and yielding only 19.0 free throw attempts per game. Los Angeles is allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range, and the Lakers have been operating at a high level on defense for an extended period. Los Angeles was a top-five defensive team in the NBA after the All-Star break, giving up only 1.11 points per possession, and the Lakers led the league in free throw prevention (20.8 attempts per game) during the regular season. In addition, the Lakers finished No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point defense (34.4%) in 2022-23, with top-10 marks in defensive rebound rate (72.3%) and field goal percentage allowed (46.9%) for the season. |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big game for Denver was game 3 to essentially put the Timberwolves away. Since an 0-3 deficit is virtually a death knell for a team, Denver may take the foot off the gas a bit here while Minnesota will be focused on not being swept and getting at least one win. Make no mistake Denver will end this in 5 back in Denver, but Minnesota finds a way to win here at home on Sunday night. Also, the Timberwolves are 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Timberwolves here getting the points. |
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04-23-23 | Celtics -5.5 v. Hawks | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great opportunity to lean heavily on a Celtics team that has a huge talent edge over the Hawks. Boston spent far too much of game three trying to outscore the Hawks rather than dig in defensively. Atlanta dominated the glass against what appeared to be a disinterested Boston front line. Boston failed to record a blocked shot for the first time in the series and the league's fifth-best defensive unit allowed Atlanta to shoot 56%. Look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments in game four to gain back control against an Atlanta team that was given free rein to drive to the basket for easy buckets in game three. I expect to see a heavy dose of Celtics defense in game three and a comfortable Boston win. |
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04-22-23 | 76ers -125 v. Nets | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets blew their best opportunity to make a series of things as they had the 76ers on the ropes only to let it slip away. After all, Embiid was floundering, Harden was ejected and they led by six after three quarters before falling apart. That 11-1 game-ending run that Brooklyn gave up was the continuation of a trend that we saw all too often in the regular season from the Nets. Philadelphia showed their grit with their tough play down the stretch as Maxey willed them to rally down the stretch, scoring 10 of his points in the fourth quarter. That loss has to deflate the Nets a bit and it’s impossible to back a team that is 0-7 against their opponent this season. Give this one to the 76ers as they close out the series and advance to the second round. |
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04-21-23 | Nuggets -130 v. Wolves | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won three straight games and four of their last five games against the Timberwolves. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 113 points per game in their last three games while making 50 percent of their shots. They rebounded the ball aggressively during that span and averaged more than 11 offensive boards per game, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities. The Timberwolves have struggled defensively this season and they’re giving up more than 114 points per game at home, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games. They struggled offensively during that stretch, scoring less than 105 points per game. Their rebounding also dropped off, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against the Nuggets. They’ve also been careless with the ball at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who average more than seven steals per game. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding opponents under 100 points per game in their last three games, and won’t have trouble keeping Minnesota’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread. |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -115 | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks are led by Tom Thibodeau, who has a career 26-37 playoff record. Although the record may not seem overly impressive, that's 63 games of playoff experience and eight appearances under his belt. On the other side, the playoffs are still relatively fresh territory for Cleveland Cavaliers head coach JB Bickerstaff. Bickerstaff's only other head coaching playoff experience was in 2016, when his Houston Rockets lost to the Warriors in five games in the first round. Bickerstaff lost two play-in tournament games last season with the Cavs and overall is 0-3 in road playoff games in his career. Donovan Mitchell has playoff experience, but this will still be a tough spot for young Cavs teams entering Madison Square Garden. Cleveland was 3-13 straight up as a road underdog this season, and I don't see that translating over well in their first road playoff test here. |
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04-20-23 | Suns -150 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns swept a pair of road games against the Clippers this season and they'll grab the win in this one as well. Injuries will be the difference between the two sides, especially as the Clippers continue to be without George. The Suns core continues to get more and more time together and considering they have two of the most electric scorers in the league at their disposal, that is likely to help them lead the way. Add in plenty of length on the perimeter and size in the frontcourt, and there isn't much reason to think that they can't dominate both ends. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two in LA and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. |
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04-20-23 | Kings +6 v. Warriors | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Draymond Green just can't keep his emotions in check and that has cost the Warriors throughout his career, as he has been absent before from big games like this one because of his actions on the court. I think the Warriors will hold on here for the win, just because I have complete faith in Steph Curry to not let his team down. Plus, the Warriors are like night and day when playing at home and on the road. They are great at home and awful on the road. The home crowd here will push them to a win, but the scrappy Kings will cover. Take Sacramento getting the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With all eyes glued to the status of Giannis, it's actually the injury woes for Miami that will make this game fall in Milwaukee's favor. The Heat will be without their top perimeter threat in Herro and could be without one of their most experienced backcourt pieces in Lowry. For the Bucks, the supporting cast isn't going to be a shocked in Wednesday's showdown to have carry much more of workload, though if Giannis can go, that'll only increase their likelihood to win with ease anyway. The Bucks were one of the best teams in the league at home, while Miami was one of the worst road teams of the playoff teams, which will further ensure things swing back into Milwaukee's favor in this one. |
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