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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-18 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In this match up, both teams are battling for playoff position in the Western Conference. The Thunder have a +24 to +20 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. Winners of the first two meetings this season, Oklahoma City is “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus “average up” for the Clippers. Another indication to go with the Thunder is that Los Angeles is sixth in Team Volatility. The Clippers will be a road underdog, so the Thunder should walk away with their third head-to-head victory this season without defeat. |
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03-16-18 | Mavs v. Raptors -10.5 | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors come in with the best record in the Eastern Conference, while the Mavericks have been eliminated in the Western Conference. Toronto has a +28 to +22 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and +2.16 to -5.53 on the Team Strength Oscillator. Surprisingly, Dallas took the first meeting as a home underdog. I don’t see that same happening in Toronto. The Raptors will dispose of the Mavericks relatively easy to stay on top in the playoff race. |
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03-16-18 | Celtics -6 v. Magic | 92-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston looks to catch Toronto in the division and conference, while the Magic try to avoid the basement in the conference. Boston holds a +26 to +7 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and are “burning hot” versus “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Celtics also hold a 2-1 season series advantage. There is little indication that Orlando can pull off an upset in this one. I go with Boston in a double-digit victory. |
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03-16-18 | Nets v. 76ers -8 | 116-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers are among a six-team battle for third through eighth in the Eastern Conference, while the Nets have one of the worst records in the conference. Philadelphia has a surprising only slim +14 to +11 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator and are “average down” versus “ice cold up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The 76ers have won two of three meetings between the teams this season. Another indication to bet on Philadelphia is they are fifth in Team Volatility and will be a home favorite. I see the 76ers winning this at home to keep pace in the Eastern Conference playoff race. |
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03-13-18 | Pistons v. Jazz -8.5 | 79-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Stan Van Gundy’s job prospects in Detroit for next season are really hinging upon the Pistons making the playoffs, then get ready to see SVG on ESPN or TNT in 2018-19 as it looks as if his team is going to fall short. As of yet the Blake Griffin addition has not translated into enough wins; Detroit is just 2-10 SU and vs. line last 12 into Bulls game on March 9, not the sort of return on investment that was expected after adding big Blake from the Clips. Would rather back Utah, revving up again with four SU wins in a row thru March 8 after a brief lull following the All-Star break, and already a winner vs. Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on Jan. 24 at the outset of what would become an 11-game Jazz SU win streak into All-Star break. |
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03-13-18 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 112-106 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Clips still scratching and clawing to get into West playoff mix, Bulls simply headed full speed into the draft lottery. Chicago needed an even-worse Memphis to slow the rapid descent in March 7 Bulls win, but Fred Hoiberg’s bunch had lost SU in 14 of previous 17, and the arrow has been pointing straight down since Niko Mirotic’s trade to the Pelicans signaled surrender for this season. Absence of Robin Lopez for Bulls has meant that Hoiberg is forced to use Cristiano “Ronaldo” Felicio, who recently recorded a woeful -17 point differential in just 25 minutes of floor time against the Mavs on March 2. Too many reasons to go against the Bulls to shy away from playoff-chasing Clips, who won and covered 5 of 7 on most recent road trip. |
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03-13-18 | Hornets v. Pelicans -4.5 | 115-119 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Keep an eye on the injury report, as Anthony Davis had to leave the last two of New Orleans’ 10-game win streak thru March 8 (the second time, March 7 at Sacramento, exiting in 3rd Q after rolling an ankle). With the ”Uni-Brow” entering the MVP discussion by scoring nearly 40 ppg during the uptick, his presence is obviously important. But unless Davis is definitely out, have no interest in bucking the hot Pels, who were not only scoring almost 125 ppg in the win streak, but playing some defense, as they’ve posted top ten numbers on stop end during the ascent. New Orleans also in a stretch of 8 of 9 at home that can help solidify a playoff berth in West, something that appears increasingly out of reach in East for the Hornets, whose 4-game skid thru March 7 has effectively knocked them from serious playoff contention |
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03-13-18 | Raptors -8.5 v. Nets | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Expect Toronto to at least be on the alert for this matchup vs. Brooklyn after sleepwalking its way to a narrow 114-113 OT escape in last meeting on Jan. 8. But overlooking Nets might have been understandable after Raps won by 33 in previous meeting on Dec. 15 north of the border when Toronto shot almost 56% from floor and DeMar DeRozan scored 31. Brooklyn slumping again into March (1-13 SU last 14 into last Thursday vs. Hornets) though Nets covering some inflated numbers lately (5 of 6 into Charlotte game). Toronto’s recent 14-game streak thru March 8 (13-1 SU, 10-4 vs. line) a bit more impressive as Raps bearing down to secure top East seed in fast-approaching playoffs. |
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03-13-18 | Thunder -6 v. Hawks | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. While Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In addition, Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Atlanta and 19-8 ATS in the last 27 meetings overall. |
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03-12-18 | Spurs v. Rockets -11.5 | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like much involving Houston this season, battles vs. San Antonio have turned into a Rockets party, with Houston winning and covering handily in first two meetings. This is what Rockets have admittedly been doing against almost every foe lately, as SU win streak had mushroomed to 17 in a row (13–4 vs. line) thru March 8. Meanwhile it is not inconceivable that Spurs could miss playoffs as they are having trouble finding traction with Kawhi Leonard still sidelined (though perhaps back soon) and various nagging hurts (Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge) elsewhere on roster. Coach Pop looking for answers, as usually-stout SA defense has fallen off, giving up 6 more points per 100 than their season average in recent 3-8 SU skid. Transition defense in particular was an issue during this stretch. Getting Rudy Gay back is not going to help on the stop end, but Pop needs his shot creation until (if) Leonard returns. |
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03-11-18 | Pacers v. Celtics -6.5 | 99-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics have suffered only a three-point loss at Western Conference-leading Houston since the All-Star break, winning their other six games in that stretch by an average of 14 points. They will look to stay hot and keep close in the race for the top spot in the East when they host the Indiana Pacers today. Boston got past Minnesota on the road 117-109 on Thursday to clinch a playoff spot. Boston is 2 1/2 games behind first-place Toronto and comfortably ahead of a six-team pack fighting for the rest of the playoff spots, a group that includes the Pacers. Irving averages 24.8 points on 54.5 percent shooting, 6.3 assists and 5.7 rebounds since the All-Star break for the Celtics. |
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03-11-18 | Warriors -5 v. Wolves | 103-109 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tough stretch of games for Golden State, which is coming off San Antonio and a visit to sizzling Portland. With a day off to prep and two days off after this, expect a top effort from Warriors, who are trying to make up ground on Western Conference-leading Houston. Minnesota has become a target since the injury to star swing man Jimmy Butler, but Tom Thibodeau’s team was struggling long before the injury. Minnesota is just 2-8 vs. the number in its last 10, giving up 115 ppg in that span. And Minnesota dropped its last 5 against the points facing playoff-positioned teams. |
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03-11-18 | Raptors -9.5 v. Knicks | 132-106 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York snapped its 8-game series losing streak against Toronto on Nov. 22, but the Raptors avenged that result with a vicious 113-88 shellacking that was one of a pair of one-sided Knick losses sandwiched around that win this season. Seven Raptors have scored in double digits in the series against New York this season. The Knick problems are well-documented, with a 1-11 spread mark in its last 12 prior to facing Milwaukee on Friday. Raptors have given top effort every night in chase for the best record in the East |
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03-10-18 | Spurs +5 v. Thunder | 94-104 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Will take any points with San Antonio side that’s 2-0 as a dog against OKC this season. The Spurs have their problems, losing 8 of their last 11 into Thursday vs. Warriors to fall from 3rd to 5th in the Western Conference pecking order, and C Pau Gasol didn’t play at Golden State due to a shoulder injury. However, definitely distrust OKC side that’s been outscored 111-107, is allowing foes to shoot 48%, and has made just 32% of its treys since the all-star break. Mix in fact that the Thunder is just 7-16 vs. the number laying points at home and you have a case. With Carmelo Anthony and Paul George shooting a combined 38% over the team’s last 7 games, it’s no wonder HC Billy Donovan appears frustrated at times. |
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03-10-18 | Wizards +5 v. Heat | 102-129 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a quick turnaround from Tuesday’s series meeting in Washington when the Wizards took a 117-113 decision in OT at the Capital One Arena behind the sharpshooting of Bradley Beal. Beal sank 12 o 16 attempts, including 6 of 7 on his threes to secure the victory. Miami was down 9 at the half but mounted a comeback thanks to bench efforts by Dwayne Wade (team-high 22 pts.) and Tyler Johnson (21). The Wizards played in New Orleans last night, but they are 9-5 the last 2 seasons on the road in 2nd of back-to-back games. |
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03-09-18 | Lakers +7 v. Nuggets | 116-125 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers have been playing very well, logging an 18-8 SU mark since Jan. 7, but recent injury to swing man Brandon Ingram is a worry for HC Luke Walton. That being said, Denver is 1-6 vs. the points overall in its last 7, including 4 straight spread losses at the Pepsi Center. The Lakers have benefited from the return of PG Lonzo Ball, who’s made 50% of his treys over the past 5 games, and blending in of Isaiah Thomas (19 ppg & 6.8 apg off the bench in L5Gs) are solid buy signs. Denver has given up 116 ppg and 51% in its last 10 games. |
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03-09-18 | Jazz -9.5 v. Grizzlies | 95-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah has been on a tear since the last week in January, as the Jazz have won 16 of their last 18 SU and are 11-6-1 vs. the number since winning in Detroit Jan. 24. One of the wins in that run was a 92-88 victory at the FedEx Forum on Feb. 7. The Jazz didn’t cover that trip to Memphis, as vet F Derrick Favors, C Rudy Gobert and super rookie Donovan Mitchell combined to make just 6 of 21 shots. A 29-point effort by Jazz PG Ricky Rubio and a 28-12 edge in free throws made was enough to get the win, and the Jazz held a 10-point lead with 31 seconds left before Dillon Brooks and Mario Chalmers hit late treys to claim a backdoor cover. Utah is in a dead heat with the Clippers and Denver for the final playoff spot, so they desperately need this win with a trip to red-hot New Orleans scheduled for Sunday. |
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03-09-18 | Rockets -2 v. Raptors | 105-108 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The two conference leaders collide. The first meeting went Toronto’s way, with the Raptors making 53% of their shots, while making Rocket kingpin James Harden work for his 38 points, as he was 8 for 25 on the night. Harden also had an embarrassing 9 turnovers! Rocket G Eric Gordon hit only 3 of 12 shots, and key Houston all-star Chris Paul didn’t play that night. The Rockets have won 17 straight games and are 9-1 SU and 10-0 vs. the points in their last 10 on the road, and are 36-2 with Harden and Paul in the lineup together. Toronto unlikely to duplicate its 14 of 30 performance from beyond the arc in Houston, and Paul’s added presence this time around can’t be minimized. |
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03-08-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -11 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The intrigue is quickly leaving this rivalry that once had the ability to captivate NBA Nation. Not so this season, with focused Golden State rolling to a pair of easy wins and covers vs. the ever-depleted Spurs, who now might be looking at LaMarcus Aldridge on the shelf with ankle problems to go along with Kawhi Leonard (might return sometime in March) and perhaps even Paul Gasol. Warriors have played in some breathtaking spurts since the All-Star break as they ramp up for another run at the ring, and even at full strength Coach Pop would be hard-pressed to change this season’s series dynamics. |
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03-07-18 | Pelicans -5.5 v. Kings | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not the Boogie Cousins reunion as earlier meetings this season but some interesting stuff nonetheless as the road dog has won outright all three match ups, including a pair of surprise Sacramento successes at Smoothie King Center. That was all, however, before Pelicans began to ramp things up a few weeks ago, with SU win streak at 7 after win at Spurs on Feb. 28, and Anthony Davis scoring almost 40 ppg during that stretch. For those considering a contrarian vote on Kings, note that into last week the bottom seven teams in the NBA had combined to lose 41 straight games, with Sacramento’s latest SU skid at five straight into March. Scoring 127 ppg in their uptick, hard to see Pelicans getting outgunned by this Kings lot at Golden 1 Center. |
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03-07-18 | Rockets -6 v. Bucks | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This could prove rather entertaining as was the 115-111 Houston win (but Milwaukee cover) at Toyota Center back on Dec. 16. James Harden (scored 31) and the Greek Freak (added 28) put on a good show that night, when Harden needed help from Chris Paul (scored 25) to help Rockets survive. Since then, however, Milwaukee has jettisoned HC Jason Kidd, and interim Joe Prunty finding it a bit harder against improved opposition in recent weeks, as Milwaukee had dropped 4 of 5 SU into March. Meanwhile Houston 20-9 as road chalk after last night's demolition of Oklahoma City |
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03-07-18 | Raptors -5.5 v. Pistons | 121-119 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just as the vultures were starting to circle at Little Caesars Arena as the Blake Griffin experiment seemed to be going off the rails and likely taking Stan Van Gundy’s job with it, Detroit circled the wagons for a home romp past the Bucks on Feb. 28 to maintain a playoff pulse. But replicating that sort of effort against a Toronto side that blasted Pistons by 27 in their last meeting (pre-Griffin) on Jan. 17 might be a tall order for Detroit, which among other things has not made much of a fortress out of its new arena (just 13-18-2 vs. line at home). That recent W vs. the Bucks was also only the third Pistons cover in last 18 vs. line, making some Detroit die hard's wish for the days of Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley. |
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03-06-18 | Knicks v. Blazers -9 | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland caught the Knicks during the height of “Kristaps mania” back in late November but still beat NY at MSG by 103-91 count. Porzingis tried his best that night (scoring 22) but Knicks couldn’t do anything about Damian Lillard who burned them for 32. Sobering for NY is that in rematch, Porzingis is out and Lillard very much in the Portland fold. At one point this season we would have been interested in giving Knicks a shot in dog role, but probably not now on heels of 1-9 spread skid into March. Meanwhile Portland had dropped just 5 of last 17 vs. line into last Thursday’s game vs. T-wolves. |
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03-06-18 | Nuggets -5 v. Mavs | 107-118 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Home team has won first three meetings to date this season, though Dallas covered in each of those. But things a bit different since the last time these two tangoed on Jan. 27, as Paul Millsap has returned to active duty for Denver and the Mavericks’ season has continued to go south, with SU losses in 15 of 19 heading into last Friday’s game vs. the Bulls (which is solace for those who don’t like Mark Cuban, knowing the Dallas owner will be obliged to watch). Hard to find many silver linings at moment for Mavs, who rank 28th offensively in their recent slump. Further, their three small guards--- Dennis Smith Jr., Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea--have shot a combined 38 percent during skid, while Smith ranks as the league’s least effective shooter (minimum 100 shots) over the last month. Moreover, their latest starting lineup (with Barea and Smith in the backcourt) has allowed 117 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks. Otherwise, all is fine in Big D. Playoff hungry Nuggets can’t afford to blow games like this one. |
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03-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Thunder | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston might relish the revenge role, which it used to its advantage in recent beat down of the Clippers at the Staples Center. Now the focus is on an Ok City side that won on Christmas at the Peake when Russell Westbrook (scored 31) outgunned James Harden. But Houston was minus Chris Paul in late December and with Paul in the fold the Rockets had unfurled a 14-game SU win streak into last Saturday vs. Boston (Paul only missed one of those 14 games). And Thunder now minus defensive ace Andre Roberson. Ok City remains a risky investment, dropping 9 of last 12 vs. line into March, and if GM Sam Presti can’t find another wing on the buyout market, erratic Thunder might find itself in a struggle just to get out of the first round of playoffs. |
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03-06-18 | Hawks v. Raptors -12.5 | 90-106 | Win | 101 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s been like stealing candy from a baby for Toronto against Atlanta this season, and Raps have romped to three DD wins and spread covers at Hawks’ expense. Not sure that changes here, as Atlanta playing for some date down the road (2021? 2022?), with Mike Budenholzer turning over more playing time to young guys; John Collins now in the starting lineup and Isaiah Taylor saw a big minutes bump in February. Meanwhile Toronto looking to solidify its hold as the top seed in the East and had lost SU in just 1 of 10 into last Friday vs. the Wiz. Still, expect Dwane Casey to keep an eye on the defense, as the starting lineup allowed an alarming 115 points per 100 possessions in a recent four-game stretch. That should require some fine tuning and should keep Raps sharp enough to hammer Hawks again. |
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03-05-18 | Magic v. Jazz -9.5 | 80-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah hit one of its high notes earlier this season on the same night Orlando might have touched a low when Jazz romped by 40 at Amway Center on Nov. 18. Utah “D was smothering that night, holding Magic to 38% FG shooting. Things have gotten a bit better for Orlando since, at least vs. spread (14-6 last 20 thru March 1), though Magic was on a 6-game SU skid heading into last Friday’s game vs. Pistons as return of both Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic to active duty hasn’t translated into wins. Meanwhile Utah has not regained the momentum it had before All-Star break when uncorking 11 wins in a row, dropping 2 of 3 SU and vs. spread since into last Friday vs. Twolves. Utah was, however, able to get well in recent win streak vs. teams at Orlando’s level, and the first meeting suggests some problematic fundamental match ups here for Magic. |
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03-05-18 | Celtics -7.5 v. Bulls | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After losing by 23 to Chicago when the Bulls were heating up (remember those days?) in mid December, Boston avenged that loss twelve nights later on Dec. 23 when rolling by 25 at TD Garden. All Celtic starters scored in DDs that night led by Kyrie Irving’s 25 points. Chicago since is heading full-speed into the draft lottery with latest skid at 5 games into last Friday vs. Dallas. Bulls’ Zach LaVine is showing some offensive promise, scoring 17.7 points per game and shooting 39.5% from three since his return in Chicago. However, it’s the other end of the floor that’s a concern — the Bulls are 8.2 points per 100 possessions better defensively when LaVine sits. One of many issues Fred Hoiberg won’t be solving anytime soon. |
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03-05-18 | Suns v. Heat -9.5 | 103-125 | Win | 102 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami didn’t need Dwyane Wade when it beat Phoenix by 11 in the desert back on Nov. 8. All Heat needed that night was Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside, who combined for 52 points as Miami exploited the burnable Phoenix defense with 53% FG shooting. Now Wade is in the fold and Miami seems energized, undefeated last six vs. line into last Thursday vs. Lakers, and turning around what had been poor spread fortunes at AA Arena in process. Suns did break a 10-game SU losing streak when topping white-flag-waving Memphis on Feb. 28, but Suns a bit nicked up with Tyson Chandler (neck) and T.J. Warren (tailbone) hurting late last week. |
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03-04-18 | Nets +8 v. Clippers | 120-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn has been a fairly sold play when getting some points on the road this season, racking up a 15-8 mark getting 4 pts. or more away from home. The Nets have been getting better scoring recently with the return of D’Angelo Russell (17 ppg L5Gs) and an uptick in performance from Allen Crabbe (also 17 ppg L5). The Clippers have covered 5 of their last 6 games, but all 5 of those “Ws” have come on the road. L.A. was just 2-4 SU and 1-5 vs. the points in its last 6 at Staples Center prior to hosting the Knicks on Friday. The first game was just 2 weeks ago (Feb. 12), and 7 Clippers scored in double figures, but some of those guys won’t be available this time around. |
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03-04-18 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bucks | 110-118 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are sinking in the Eastern Conference with four straight losses. One of the teams taking advantage of that swoon is the Philadelphia 76ers, who jumped in front of the Bucks in the standings and will try to make the advantage even larger when they visit Milwaukee today. The Bucks looked set to make a big move in the East after earning an overtime win at East-leading Toronto coming out of the All-Star break but have since fallen to four straight playoff hopefuls, including a 103-96 setback to the Indiana Pacers at home on Friday. |
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03-04-18 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Mavs | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Davis will try to lead the Pelicans to an eighth straight win when they visit the Dallas Mavericks today. Davis stepped up his level of play when All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins went down with an Achilles injury and was rewarded with a Western Conference Player of the Month Award for his work in February. Davis averaged 35 points and 13 rebounds in February and finished it off with his ninth double-double of the month in a 121-116 win at San Antonio on Wednesday. New Orleans entered play on Saturday a half-game behind four teams tied for the No. 3 spot in the West and overcame double-digit deficits in each of its last three triumphs. The Mavericks are not enjoying quite as much success and are still looking for their 20th win after dropping six of the last seven games. |
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03-04-18 | Hornets v. Raptors -8 | 98-103 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto failed to post at least 111 points for the first time in eight games on Friday but still pulled out the win with a 102-95 triumph at the Washington Wizards. The Raptors will play their next three against sub-.500 teams and get the first two at home with the Atlanta Hawks coming to town on Tuesday. The Hornets were crawling up the standings with wins in five straight before getting blasted by the Boston Celtics 134-106 on Wednesday and falling off late in a 110-99 setback at Philadelphia on Friday. |
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03-03-18 | Thunder v. Blazers -4 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland will be gunning for its 5th straight win-and-cover effort against Oklahoma City. The Blazers have won 7 in a row against OKC at the Moda Center, and they were a sizzling 11-1 SU and 9-3 vs. the points in their last 12 home games prior to hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday. Blazer G Damian Lillard was on fire in February, scoring 31.4 ppg, while C.J. McCollum has scored 22 ppg in the last 5. OKC played in Phoenix last night, and the Thunder are just 14-22 vs. the number after a SU win |
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03-03-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Spurs | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have won eight of the past 10 against the Lakers but Los Angeles beat the Spurs on Jan. 11 in the two teams' first meeting of the season and has now won two straight against San Antonio. The Lakers have won 16 of their last 23 games and have already eclipsed their win total from all of last season. Los Angeles has captured three straight games on the road and may just make it four in a row against a less than 100 percent San Antonio team. Take the points. |
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03-03-18 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Cavs | 126-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland was 7-23 vs. the points at the “Q” this season prior to hosting Philly on Thursday, and that’s probably enough right there to favor Denver. The Nuggets won last night at Memphis, but Denver is 10-4-1 vs. the points in 2nd of back-to-back games on the road dating to last season. The Cavs are a perfect 4-0 SU and against the number on the road since making their moves at the deadline, but still can’t get it together at home (1-3 vs. the points) or on defense (allowed 114 ppg at home since trade) |
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03-02-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -3 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly’s “Process” appears to be progressing swimmingly, as the Sixers are 17-8 SU since just after Christmas, and the team is courting LeBron James as the missing link to a title. Philadelphia played last night in Cleveland and the Sixers have a 2-7 spread mark when unrested this season, a record linked in part to resting C Joel Embiid in those games in first half of the season. Now Embiid has been playing without rest, and Philly is 19-9 vs. the points at the Wells Fargo Center. Hornets on uptick (5-1 SU L6; covered 4 of L5) as G Kemba Walker has been hot (55% L5; 25 ppg), but trust the process facing Hornet side that’s just 6-14 as a road dog. |
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02-28-18 | Rockets -8.5 v. Clippers | 105-92 | Win | 102 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Round Three of the Chris Paul reunion, though Paul has only played in one of the two previous Rockets-Clips meetings this season, both won by LA. In the game Paul played, James Harden didn’t, so with them both on the floor would have to like Houston’s chances to gain revenge, especially considering how Harden scored 51 in the Paul-less loss at Toyota Center back on Dec. 22. Rockets less likely to hit those flat spots down the stretch as they battle with Warriors for best record in West and home edge in playoffs, which could be a very big deal by the time we get to late spring. |
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02-25-18 | Rockets v. Nuggets +5 | 119-114 | Push | 0 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets are bridging the All-Star break with an 11-game winning streak but are about to begin the toughest part of the remaining schedule with 10 of the next 13 on the road. That stretch begins with a high-altitude back-to-back, starting with a visit to the surging Denver Nuggets today. The Rockets, who head to Utah on Monday and will play 12 of the next 13 games against teams with current winning records, are trying to hold off the defending champion Golden State Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. Houston didn't show any rust out of the break on Friday, when it enjoyed one of its few home games over the next month by breezing past the Minnesota Timberwolves 120-102. The Nuggets are tied for the second-longest winning streak in the West at four in a row and are trying to emerge out of a pack of teams tightly grouped from third through tenth in the standings. |
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02-25-18 | Pistons v. Hornets -4 | 98-114 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit is two games under .500 and sitting in the No. 9 spot in the East with 24 games remaining in the regular season, 15 of which will come on the road, and suffered a 110-98 home loss to the Boston Celtics coming out of the break on Friday. The Hornets are trying to play their way into the playoff race as well and used a three-game winning streak to pull within 2 1/2 games of the Pistons. Charlotte did not show any sluggishness coming out of the break and followed a 111-96 win over Brooklyn on Thursday with a 122-105 pasting of the Washington Wizards on Friday. |
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02-24-18 | Mavs v. Jazz -9 | 90-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz will look to start a new winning streak when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. Utah won a season-best 11 straight games prior to the All-Star break but struggled offensively Friday when it dropped a 100-81 decision to the Portland Trail Blazers. Dallas is 7-22 on the road this season and figures to face long odds against the Jazz in a road back-to-back while Utah is playing consecutive home games on its back-to-back. |
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02-24-18 | Blazers -6.5 v. Suns | 106-104 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Portland Trail Blazers attempt to complete a four-game season sweep of Phoenix when they visit the sinking Suns today. Portland has scored an average of 118.7 points while winning this season's previous three meetings, and that includes a 124-76 romp over Phoenix in the season opener Oct. 18. All-Star point guard Damian Lillard has scored 25 or more points in each of his last seven games against the Suns and he tuned up with 24 in Friday's 100-81 road victory over the Utah Jazz. Phoenix suffered a 128-117 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday for its eighth straight setback and 16 in its past 18 games. The Suns clinched their fourth consecutive losing campaign with their latest loss and are tied with the Atlanta Hawks for the NBA's worst record. |
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02-24-18 | Magic v. 76ers -9 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia is enjoying its longest winning streak since a six-game run during the 2011-2012 season and is focused on moving up the standings in the Eastern Conference, with the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers only 2 1/2 games ahead entering play on Friday. The Magic are not in the playoff chase and are just trying to stay off the bottom of the East after a 120-113 home setback to the New York Knicks on Thursday dropped them 22 games under .500. The loss was the fourth straight for Orlando, which is 7-23 on the road and kicks off a stretch with seven of 10 away from home today. |
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02-23-18 | Cavs -5 v. Grizzlies | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has been ignited by trade, as newly acquired Gs Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood combined for 30 ppg and shot 57% off the bench after being acquired. Larry Nance Jr. pulled down 6.5 rpg as a reserve as well, and James looked like a newly-crowned King with 30 ppg, 9.5 rpg and 12.8 apg since the trade prior to facing Washington last night. The Cavs haven’t been great when unrested on the road this season (1-3 vs. points), but also-ran Memphis is coming off a long layoff (on the beach in the Bahamas?). Cleveland has been working to integrate its new parts and the clash last night will sharpen their game. |
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02-23-18 | Celtics -1.5 v. Pistons | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Visitor has won 7 of last 9 in this series SU, and Detroit has been in a point spread tailspin since Christmas. The Pistons are just 8-14 SU in 2018 and only 3-13-1 vs. the number since mid-January. Boston struggled into the break, losing its 4 of its last 5 SU, but the losses were against revitalized Cleveland, Toronto, the Clippers and Indiana. Detroit traded its most explosive weapon against Boston (Tobias Harris, 25 ppg vs. Celtics TY), and the shine is off the Blake Griffin apple a bit. Pistons covered just 1 of Griffin’s first 8 games with the club |
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02-13-18 | Kings +6.5 v. Mavs | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The off season can’t come soon enough for either of these teams, especially Dallas, as Mark Cuban’s “creative tanking” should net Mavericks a high draft pick and a chance to re-make the roster when properly cleared of excess salary. Until then, Mavericks might be hard to watch, especially with Harrison Barnes still nursing a bad ankle, and Dallas having lost 9 of last 11 SU into Golden State on Feb. 8. Kings already won once as a dog at Big D way back on Oct. 20, when now-departed George Hill led Kings with 21 points. Arrival of Iman Shumpert from Cavs at deadline (part of the Hill deal) at least prevents a net-loss for Sacramento, whose recent form hasn’t been too bad (4-3 SU last seven, 5-2 vs. line last eight, both thru Feb. 8). Dave Joerger still using a heavy-rookie starting lineup, but vets like Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos remain to do heavy lifting for Sacramento |
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02-13-18 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | 92-97 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bucks have caught a bit of an updraft since the return of Jabari Parker and won 7 of 8 SU into last Friday vs. Heat, albeit vs. a mostly-forgiving schedule. That latter dynamic, however, remains in place for visit of lowly Hawks, who while not an automatic go-against on the road (where indeed they have a winning spread mark) have still won only 5 of their first 26 SU away from Philips Arena thru Feb. 7. And not even home court could help Atlanta in first meeting back on Oct. 29, when the Greek Freak and Khris Middleton combined for 60 points in 117-106 Milwaukee cruise. |
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02-13-18 | Heat v. Raptors -7.5 | 112-115 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto was comfy enough with its current composition to stand pat at the deadline, which fellow East contenders Cleveland and Boston did not; we’ll see if the Raptors come to regret their relative inactivity. Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade has made a feel-good return to Miami with hopes of rekindling past glories, and his form in Cleveland has been good enough to suggest he can help the Heat. No matter, Toronto will be on alert after getting dumped by underdog Miami in Heat’s last visit to Air Canada Centre on Jan. 9, when Raps (minus Kyle Lowry that night) hit barely 38% from floor in bitter 1-point loss. Expect them to do a bit better in rematch, especially considering recent form that including three thumping wins and covers in a row on recent home stand into Feb. 8 game vs. Knicks |
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02-11-18 | Jazz +3 v. Blazers | 115-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah has won its last 6 on the road SU and covered 8 of its last 11 as a visitor, including recent SU wins at Toronto and San Antonio. That being said, the Jazz haven’t had much success at the Moda Center, losing 7 of their last 8 in Portland SU, dropping the last 4 against the number. However, this is the first meeting in Portland this season, and the Trail Blazers haven’t been nearly as good at home as they had in recent years, logging a 7-13-1 spread mark as host prior to facing Charlotte on Thursday. Jazz Gs Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell combined for 58 pts. in Jazz OT win back on Nov. 1. |
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02-11-18 | Knicks v. Pacers -8.5 | 113-121 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York’s loss of PF Kristaps Porzingis was a major blow to a Knick team that already had more than its share of problems. Porzingis scored 40 pts. and had 6 blocks in his only appearance vs. the Pacers this season, which was a 108-101 Knick victory back on Nov. 5. Pacer PF Thad Young scored 19 ppg and shot 73% vs. the Knicks this season, and Indy made more than 50% overall in the series. Assuming Pacer G Victor Oladipo (24 ppg, 49% on the season) is over his illness, look for Indiana to pad its 27-19 mark the last 2 seasons as Bankers Life Fieldhouse chalk. |
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02-11-18 | Cavs +5 v. Celtics | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This grudge match might get even more ugly after Kyrie Irving’s social media post showed him laughing at a house burning down after the Cleveland-Laker trade shook up the trade deadline. Irving will have to step up his game against the Cavs, however, as he shot just 42% and scored only 16.5 ppg as the two teams split the first two (although the Celtics covered both). Prefer to take a lead with refreshed, new-look Cavs, who are 4-2 as a road dog, the only category in which they’ve had a winning mark. |
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02-11-18 | Pistons -3.5 v. Hawks | 115-118 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit had Saturday off to shake off trade revenge game against the Clippers, and win or lose, would favor Piston side that looked much-improved on acquisition of PF Blake Griffin. Detroit has won 4 of 5 against the Hawks over the past 2 seasons, including a 105-91 victory in most recent encounter, which was played in Atlanta. Griffin had 26 pts., 10 rebs. and 10 assists in his only game against the Hawks this season, while C Andre Drummond had 39 boards in the two Detroit wins against Atlanta this season. . |
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02-10-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -10.5 | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two Western powers are both leaking a little oil of late. Golden State is just 1-3 SU in its last 4 and have covered only 2 of its last 9 games prior to facing Dallas on Thursday. San Antonio is 3-3 SU and 2-4 vs. the number in its last 6. The Warriors have held the upper hand against the Spurs, winning 6 straight with a 5-1 spread mark dating back to March last year and including a series sweep in last year’s playoffs. Look for that trend to continue, especially with F Kawhi Leonard still out with a quad and PG Dejounte Murray joining him on the sidelines. |
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02-10-18 | Wizards -6 v. Bulls | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have little interest in backing Chicago side that was win less in its last 7 and had dropped 6 straight spread decisions prior to facing Minnesota last night. Rested Washington, conversely, shook off its 1-9 spread run by covering 5 of its last six, as G Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr., and Markieff Morris have stepped up to replace output of injured PG John Wall. The Wizards have taken the last 4 vs. Chicago SU, and the Bulls have been outscored 112-102 in their last 5 games, shooting just 39% in that negative streak. |
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02-10-18 | Pelicans v. Nets +2.5 | 138-128 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans was just 1-4 SU and vs. the number in its first 5 games playing without injured C DeMarcus Cousins, and Brooklyn has been a big winner as an underdog (27-15 vs. the points). The Pelicanx defense suffered with Cousins sidelined, as they gave up 115 ppg and 48%, up sharply from seasonal averages. NO played last night in Philly, while the Nets are rested and have covered 14-7-1 since late December and 8-4-1 vs. the number in its last 13 at the Barclays Center. 1 |
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02-09-18 | Wolves -7 v. Bulls | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak (1-6 ATS) and struggling big time without guard Kris Dunn who remains out with a concussion and note that they traded Nikola Mirotic to the New Orleans Pelicans last week. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days rest. They've covered the spread in four straight meetings with the Bulls and this will be a special game for Minnesota's Jimmy Butler who will pay his first visit to the United Center as a member of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Butler has averaged 22.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists and should lead the Wolves to a comfortable win. |
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02-09-18 | Pacers v. Celtics -4 | 97-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston, which added C/PF Greg Monroe to shore up its front line, played last night in Washington. The Celtics have actually been a positive play at home when unrested, covering 12 of 19 chances over the past 3+ seasons. Boston has won 5 straight against Indiana, covering 4 of those meetings, and return to action of Celtic PG Kyrie Irving is a major relief to HC Brad Stevens. Irving scored 28 ppg and shot 54% in two meetings with the Pacers this season, and injury to Pacer PG Darren Collison will likely mean inconsistent Lance Stephenson will have to defend Kyrie. Boston 6-3 L9 laying single digits at home. |
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02-09-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -4.5 | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans rode PG Jrue Holiday’s 34 pts. to a victory (and a narrow cover) back on Dec. 10. Philly “big” Joel Embiid sat that game out with a back injury, and Pelican star C Boogie Cousins, who had 23 pts. and 9 boards in first meeting, has since been sidelined for the season. With Embiid playing at an all-star level, expect the Sixers to turn the tables on New Orleans. Philadelphia has covered 6 straight as Wells Fargo Center chalk, so have no problem laying the points with a Sixer team that has climbed to 4th in the league in efficiency differential. |
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02-08-18 | Hawks v. Magic -1 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Home team has won last four in this series as the sides have split those matchups, though Atlanta covered the first two clashes this season. To back Hawks again, might want to make sure PG Dennis Schroder is beyond last week’s shoulder injury. Even if he’s okay, however, there is a case for Orlando, playing better lately and on an 8-1 spread uptick into February. Plenty of flaws on Atlanta side; Hawks played some decent defense for a stretch in early January, but remain the team that has seen the biggest increase (by a wide margin) in points allowed per 100 possessions |
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02-06-18 | Wizards v. 76ers -6 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards though have flat out struggled in this spot at times for bettors this year, interestingly going just 10-14 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. The 76ers on the other hand have been “money in the bank” in this position, going 14-8 ATS at home this season and 20-13 ATS in their last 33 when playing with two days of rest. |
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02-06-18 | Bucks -1.5 v. Knicks | 103-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are winners of six of seven games since moving on from head coach Jason Kidd, but an injury to superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo could spell doom for the club. However, The Bucks hope to have Antetokounmpo available when they visit the struggling New York Knicks today. New York dropped its last three games and six of the last eight after squandering a late lead in a 99-96 home setback to lowly Atlanta on Sunday. |
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02-05-18 | Bulls v. Kings -2.5 | 98-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units That Bulls uptick for much of December and January now looks a memory as Chicago endured a rough patch at the end of January, losing five in a row SU and failing to cover the last four of those (some by hefty margins) into February. Chicago will be selling at trade deadline and put Nikola Mirotic on the shelf before dealing him to the Pelicans, but more could be on the move before next Thursday. The same might be said of Sacramento, where some of the Kings’ vets (George Hill in particular) could also be targeted. Interesting angle worth noting is that Sacramento entered February 10-2 in games it led entering the 4th Q, and Kings just completed a 3-3 trip to the South, so there is some life at Golden 1 Center. Sacramento also owns a win over Chicago back on Dec. 1 at United Center when Kings shot 53% from floor, though that was before Mirotic reappeared and Bulls began an uptick...all now in the rear view mirror. |
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