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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-18 | Blazers -6.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-108 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units It seems hard to remember, but Memphis was once good enough this season to win a game at Portland way back on Nov. 7, when David Fizdale was still coaching Griz and regarded fondly in the Bluff City, and Mike Conley (remember him?) scored 20 points. How a few months changes things. Now the only question is how much of a price we want to lay with the Blazers. Memphis entered this week having lost 23 of its past 24 games before a shock win vs. T-wolves, but the low point of the season came last Thursday in a franchise-record 61-point loss to the Hornets. This was the largest margin of defeat for any team since February 1998, and Memphis’ 55-point hole through three quarters was tied for the largest such deficit in the shot clock era. |
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03-28-18 | Knicks v. 76ers -12.5 | 101-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly has won all three previous meetings though failed to cover 9 ½-point spread at MSG on March 15. Joel Embiid played that night and scored 29 points for Sixers, and while he is probably due to take a rest over the final two weeks of the regular season, the schedule breaks kindly this week and he likely plays tonight. Philly now has a 7-game win streak after winning big vs. Denver on Monday, covering the last five of those, while “over” 5-1-1 those 7. The Knicks lead the group of tankers into this week solely because of their shocking road win against the Wizards on Sunday, but otherwise hard to find many takers at moment for New York. |
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03-25-18 | Hawks v. Rockets -12 | 99-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets set a franchise record for victories in a season by defeating New Orleans on Saturday and can reach the 60-win mark for the first time when they host the Atlanta Hawks today. James Harden bounced back from a rough shooting effort in a victory over Detroit on Thursday to score 28 points and hand out eight assists in the 114-91 triumph against the Pelicans. The Rockets' eighth consecutive win gave them a 4 1/2-game lead over Golden State in the race for first place in the Western Conference with nine contests remaining. Clint Capela dominated inside with 18 points, 16 rebounds and six blocked shots for Houston, which has matched the second-longest streak in franchise history with 15 straight wins at home. The Hawks are 1-3 on their six-game road trip and have lost eight of nine overall after falling 106-94 at Golden State on Friday. |
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03-25-18 | Celtics -6.5 v. Kings | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston took no prisoners in first meeting, played back on Nov. 1, when the Celtics were in the midst of a quick start. Star PG Kyrie Irving was integral to the Celt victory with 22 pts., while G Jaylen Brown matched him in points while grabbing 6 boards. Irving is likely still out for Boston, but Brown should be nearly through with the concussion protocol by the time this one is played. The Celtics’ 24-10 spread mark away from home this season impressive, even more so if you consider they are 10-2 the last 12 through March 22. Celtic's HC Brad Stevens will remind his team of its 16-point loss in Sacramento last year. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | 81-85 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At a short price, favor the Duke side, which owns the more potent, steadier inside-outside attack, featuring Bagley, Carter & Allen. The Blue Devils have a host of rangy Gs to extend their zone and keep the pressure on KU’s lethal marksmen of Graham, Newman & Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Coach K’s squad has been a steady money-maker, going 22-11 vs. the spread, including an 11-3 mark as a single-digit chalk. Duke will welcome KU’s fast-paced attack, and the Blue Devils are much better equipped for 2nd chance points, as they out-rebound foes by 9.1 caroms pg (4th nationally). And the Blue Devils have made the extra pass in the Big Dance, dishing out a whopping 44 assists in the first two rounds. In a battle between two tradition-rich programs who rank 2nd & 4th in all-time victories, Duke has won 7 of 9 meetings. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova -6 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Don’t want to completely dismiss Texas Tech, which has dealt with a lot of diverse weapons and shooters this season (such as Oklahoma’s gunslinger deluxe Trae Young) and might have the defense to slow down Jay Wright’s nation’s-best 87 ppg offense. But there’s so much diversity on the Villanova offense that Chris Beard is going to have to devise a way to keep an eye on various shooters who are all comfy enough to float beyond the arc and who will stretch the Red Raider defense. Although the play making Keenan Evans seemed to be close to 100% last weekend when spearheading Red Raider wins over Stephen F Austin and Florida, neither of those sides has the diversity of Villanova. And while we think Texas Tech is beyond its late-season slump, it’s worth noting that the Red Raiders had not covered a spread in eight straight games before barely surviving that Saturday war vs. the Gators. |
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03-25-18 | Cavs -6.5 v. Nets | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Cavaliers are starting to put the pieces together as they get set for another playoff run and ran their winning streak to four in a row by trouncing the Phoenix Suns 120-95 on Friday. The Cavaliers will try to keep it rolling on the road when they open a three-game trip by visiting the Brooklyn Nets today. Cleveland, which will play five of its remaining 10 games against teams with losing records, is getting healthy as well and welcomed back Rodney Hood (back), Tristan Thompson (ankle) and Larry Nance Jr. (hamstring) in Friday's win and is just waiting on Kyle Korver (personal) and Cedi Osman (hip) to get back. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -4 | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with FSU springing a minor upset over Gonzaga, I will still lay short price with streaking Michigan, riding a 12-game win skein. The Wolverines are more tenacious on the stop end, And the most unique weapon on the court is 6-11 Moritz Wagner, who can attack the rim, smartly dish to an open man, or nail the 3-ball (40% from the arc). HC Beilein is adept at making half-time adjustments, and super-steady PG Abdur-Rahkman should be able to find seams in a ‘Nole defense ranked a lowly 211th in points allowed. Plus, Wolverines frosh Jordan Poole made a quantum leap in the confidence department by nailing UM’s amazing game-winning shot vs. Houston! |
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03-24-18 | Pelicans +8.5 v. Rockets | 91-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has given Houston problems, covering 3 straight and 11 of the last 17 in the series. The Rockets are pushing for the best record in the league, and they’ve been tough to beat at home, winning 13 straight. However, Mike D’Antoni’s side was a much less impressive 5-10 vs. the number in its last 15 as a favorite at the Toyota Center prior to hosting Detroit on Thursday. Pelican PF Anthony Davis and PG Jrue Holiday have combined for 52 ppg against Houston this season, and N.O. is 7-1 SU and vs. the number in its last 8 on the road ? |
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03-24-18 | Bulls +11.5 v. Pistons | 95-117 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Things haven’t worked out as anticipated for Detroit, as Stan Van Gundy’s team is just 3-13 SU L16 thru March 18, a streak compiled shortly after the trade for Blake Griffin. Griffin has scored 19.6 ppg on 42% shooting with a 5.4 rebound average. Not too bad, but well below his numbers in 20 games with the Clippers this season. Chicago playing pretty competitively in the week leading up to St. Patrick’s Day, covering all 4 with a 2-2 SU mark despite HC Fred Hoiberg “pulling his punches” and sitting some of his most productive contributors. The Pistons have covered just 3 of 15 chances this season laying 4 pts. or more at Little Caesar’s Arena, and they won’t get any sympathy from the refs after Van Gundy loudly and publicly called out the refs in a recent loss. |
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03-24-18 | Wolves v. 76ers -7.5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia is 14-2 SU in its last 16 at the Wells Fargo Center. Philly notched a win at Minnesota in first meeting, overcoming an outburst by Timberwolf swingman Jimmy Butler, who scored 38 pts. in 46 minutes. Butler was matched by Philly C Joel Embiid (a stat-stuffing 28 pts., 12 rebs. and 8 assists) and G J.J. Redick (26 pts.), while overcoming an embarrassing 7 turnovers by rookie PG Ben Simmons. Minny has been sour on the road, going 3-14 SU and 4-13 vs. the number in its last 17 away from the Target Center through Monday night. Now Philly won’t have to deal with Jimmy Butler (knee surgery; hoping to return for playoffs). |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It can be argued with some conviction that to get this far, Loyola has faced tougher challenges (Miami-Fla, Tennessee, Nevada) than it will in the Elite Eight vs. Kansas State. A replay of the Wildcats’ root canal vs. UMBC might be in order; although that game was not played at an appreciably slow pace, K-State was decidedly sloppy (18 TOs) vs. the Retrievers. The latter is not something that afflicted Loyola in its sub regionals vs. the Canes and Vols when guilty of only an acceptable 10 TOs vs. each. Another nail-biter is almost assured in games involving the Ramblers, who have shown a knack for pulling out the close ones. |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas Tech has had some injury problems of its own in the past month, with key G Keenan Evans (17.8 ppg) having to fight his way thru a painful turf toe, and injury-prone C Zach Smith having trouble staying on the court for extended minutes. But the mid season form of the Red Raiders seemed to resurface in Dallas, as a healthier Evans (45 points in the two games in Big D) and frosh F Zhaire Smith (18 points in the second-round win over the Gators) highlighted Beard’s collection of diverse play makers. And the active Red Raider defense continued to be able to deliver key stops, as it has done for much of the season. Although the key to any advancement remains the continued health of the electric Evans, who was touch-and-go in his first few games following the toe injury before looking more like himself last weekend (Evans said he felt “about 85 percent” after the Florida win). Defense, however, travels in March. And that combination with a healthier Evans gives Texas Tech a chance to get to the Elite Eight. Besides, I'm more than a bit reluctant to recommend an investment on Purdue, considering the Boilermakers’ recent and considerable point spread shortcomings. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse +11 v. Duke | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After all, the Orange are now getting increasing contributions on both ends of the floor from burgeoning 6-9 frosh Marek Dolezaj (5.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg), who contributed 17 points in his team’s 57-52 win over high-scoring TCU in the Round of 64. And, with Syracuse rim protector 7-2 jr. Paschal Chukwu (91 blocks) patrolling the paint area, the young Duke bigs figure to have face a tougher challenge in the rematch on a neutral site, where they won’t get the favorable whistle (in 1st meeting, the Orange attempted 10 fewer foul shots). Also, keep in mind that Boeheim’s bunch knocked off trendy Michigan State with the aforementioned Frank Howard on the bench for the final 6 minutes after fouling out! Note that the Orange are 7-2 their last 9 as an underdog. |
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03-23-18 | Heat v. Thunder -6 | 99-105 | Push | 0 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC has turned it up a notch at the right time, winning last 6 (5-1 vs. lien in those) into Tuesday‘s game at Boston. Thunder G Russell Westbrook continued to average a triple-double in the uptick, with his shooting efficiency amped up to 52% over the last 5 of those. And the addition of vet 6-9 G/F Corey Brewer has helped the locker room coalesce as well as giving OKC HC Billy Donovan additional options defensively. Brewer has been inserted as a starting guard and has helped defensively, logging 12 steals in wins over the Raptors, Clippers and Atlanta in a recent stretch. Miami was 10-3-2 vs. the points in its last 15 prior to visiting Cleveland Monday, but with C Hassan Whiteside possibly still out with a hip problem and G Dwyane Wade sidelined with a hamstring problem, look for surging Thunder to continue to jell |
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03-23-18 | Wolves -7.5 v. Knicks | 108-104 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has struggled lately, but the Timberwolves have had an extremely tough schedule. Now Tom Thibodeau’s troops are dropping in class after facing 8 straight foes that are in playoff position or strong contention. New York is definitely not in that category. The Knicks were 8-31 SU in their last 39 through March 18 and had won just 2 of their last 14 games SU (3-11 vs. the number) at Madison Square Garden prior to hosting the Bulls Monday. T-wolves rode Karl-Anthony Towns’ 23 pts., 15 rebs. and 9 assists to a 118-108 win in Minneapolis on Jan 12, on a night when since-injured Knick F Kristaps Porzingis contributed 17 pts. and 10 boards |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Sweet 16 Game of the Week I have thought that for much of the season, Nova was the best team in the country on the most nights. Though the Wildcats are hardly immune, having been dumped by Butler, St. John’s, and Providence along the way. Those losses, however, might be a valuable tool for a Nova bunch that, while still owning a couple of pieces from its dramatic title run in 2016, also has components that recall last year’s early sub-regional exit courtesy of Wisconsin, as well as those three losses this season, which Wright will make sure erase any overconfidence on his veteran squad. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -4.5 | 76-80 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tiger defense will have its toughest test in the tourney, by far, vs. KU’s well-balanced (5 players avg. DDs) 4-G offense, which can attack the rim with zest or pop from deep, hitting 10 triples pg at a sizzling 40.3% (11th nationally). In fact, the Jay Hawks will welcome G-oriented CU, since the Tigers have nobody who can dominate in the paint like the Pirates’ double-double machine 6-10 Angel Delgado. Additionally, KU’s torrid-shooting 6-3 soph G Malik Newman (13.4 ppg for the season; 25 ppg last 5 games) has been in a steady groove down the stretch, while unheralded 6-5 jr. wing Lagerald Vick (12.1 ppg; 4.8 rpg) is a dangerous option as well, canning 10 of 16 from the floor (5 of 9 from distance) in the first two rounds. Note that the Tigers are only 4-5 their last 9 as a single-digit dog. So, I am compelled to lay a handful of points with KU, which has covered in this round of the tourney the last two campaigns, with comfy spread covers vs. Purdue (98-66 last year) & Maryland (79-63 in 2016). |
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03-22-18 | Hawks v. Kings -1.5 | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game features two teams with a combined 43 wins. While nothing to play for but pride, the Kings hold a +22 to +6 advantage on the power ranking indicator. Atlanta won the previous meeting this season as a home favorite, However, the Hawks are just 5-28 on the road this season and Sacramento has been playing better of the two teams lately. The Kings will win this one by a margin of six to ten points. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State +6 v. Gonzaga | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +5.5 v. Kentucky | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units |
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03-22-18 | Jazz -8 v. Mavs | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz had their nine-game winning streak halted and seek to start a new one when they open a three-game road trip against the Dallas Mavericks today. Utah suffered a damaging defeat when it fell 99-94 to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday for just its third setback in the past 24 games. The stunning home loss to one of the worst teams in the NBA dropped the Jazz into eighth place in the congested Western Conference playoff picture with just 11 games to play. Dallas is coming off a 115-105 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday and dropped three straight games and 18 of its last 24. Mavericks rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle) will miss his second straight game. |
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03-22-18 | Pistons v. Rockets -12.5 | 96-100 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units —It’s hard to remember, but Houston was at the tail end of its worst dip of the season (a 2-7 SU skid) when it lost by 7 at Little Caesars Arena on Jan. 6. That was also when James Harden was out in early January and before the bottom fell out of the Pistons’ season. Now the only question is how many points we feel comfy laying with the Rockets, who have not been all that reliable when asked to carry heavier prices at Toyota Center (just 6-13 laying 9½ or more at home). But it will take a lot of points to get interested in Detroit (and 12.5 isn't it), which entered the week having lost 13 of 16 SU and loser of 13 of last 17 vs. line. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A&M is playing in its third Sweet 16 since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The Aggies are certainly oozing with confidence following their highly-impressive 86-65 romp over defending champ North Carolina. The Tar Heels, who were able to camouflage their lack of height with accurate outside shooting throughout the season, were fully exposed in the paint by A&M’s active, physical frontline tandem of 6-10 soph Robert Williams, a projected lottery pick, and 6-9, 270-pound jr. Tyler Davis, who poured in 18 points & collected 13 rebounds vs. UNC. And the Aggies have benefited from terrific backcourt play provided by blossoming 6-4 frosh G T.J. Starks, who’s amassed 36 points & 13 assists in the first two rounds. Plus, A&M mentor, Billy Kennedy praised the performance of 6-9 jr. F DJ Hogg, who chipped in 14 points vs. Roy Williams’s overwhelmed squad. And A&M would love to advance to the Final Four with a trip to San Antonio, just three hours from its campus in College Station. However, at a price of less than 2 hoops, prefer Michigan, even though the Wolverines’ season was saved in its thrilling 64-63 victory over tough Houston, thanks to reserve 6-4 frosh Jordan Poole, who nailed a deep buzzer-beater from tripleville. The Aggies figure to have some difficulty finding rhythm on the attack end vs. UM’s stingy defense (63.8 ppg; 8th nationally; 42.5% FGs), anchored by relentless 6-10 jr. F Moritz Wagner & emerging 7-1 soph C Jon Teske. Moreover, have to believe the well-designed Wolverine attack, expertly directed by 6-4 sr. PG Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (12.6 ppg, 3.3 apg), will shoot more accurately from deep after combining for a wretched 13 of 46 from downtown in the first two rounds. |
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03-22-18 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -9.5 | 79-140 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm not exactly enamored by the thought of laying points with Charlotte, effectively out of the playoff race and expending about as much energy on the defensive end as the Harlem Globetrotters. Fortunately for the Hornets, they are facing the NBA version of the Washington Generals in Memphis. Though the Grizzlies beat a non-tanking team (Denver) last Saturday to end a long losing streak, and Tyreke Evans has returned to active duty, it’s hard to find any silver linings in Memphis, though Dillon Brooks dropped 29 on the Bulls a week ago, which is a good sign for the developing rookie. Still, Charlotte okay as home chalk this season (16-11) |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -7.5 v. Magic | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly hasn’t had too much trouble this season with Orlando, winning and covering twice by handy margins at Wells Fargo Center. Still, the Magic has yet to stop playing hard for Frank Vogel, though sometimes it’s a bit difficult to watch; Orlando has been pretty brutal offensively, scoring just 94 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks (with Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon both having missed the last five games). So there’s a good go-against case involving the Magic here. |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Nevada | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating : 2 Units |
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03-21-18 | Utah +6.5 v. St. Mary's | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utes and Gaels haven't met since 2013-14, but the two teams participated in a closed scrimmage prior to the season. "I haven't watched them all year but we played them early on and know their personnel,'' Gaels head coach Randy Bennett told reporters. "I'm familiar with their program and they are tough, physical and well coached.” St. Mary's appears to have gotten over the disappointment of being left of the Big Dance and has a chance here of earning a third chance at playing in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden with a win, after falling one game short in 2009 and 2016. Utah, the 1947 NIT champion and 1974 runner-up, is bidding for its first trip to the semifinals since 1992 with first-round exits in 2001, 2014 and 2017.The Gaels are 18-1 SU at McKean Pavilion (losing to only Gonzaga), where they've outscored opponents on average, 78.7-to-60.9 PPG but No. 1 seeds in this tourney are just 3-5 ATS. Take the points with Utah. |
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03-21-18 | Northern Colorado +2 v. San Diego | 86-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Diego has survived a couple of tests in the CIT, first gifted a travel-weary Hartford side that had made the cross-country journey on short notice last Monday, then facing a depleted Portland State and surviving a nail biter on Saturday. But these are distracting times nonetheless at Jenny Craig Pavilion in the wake of HC Lamont Smith’s recent controversial resignation, with asst. Sam Scholl filling in on an interim basis while a search for a new leader commences. UNC has more the appearance of a team that could bring home the CIT trophy, especially as it has fared well all season on the road, winning at South Dakota, Southern Miss, and Wyoming in pre-league play and surviving the vagaries of Big Sky travel. The Bears are seeking redemption from their gut wrenching Big Sky semis loss to Montana, when sr. F Tanner Morgan missed two FTs with less than a second to play in regulation time when making just one would have won the game. But a motivated Morgan bounced back to score 19 in Sunday’s win over Drake. And Arizona State transfer G Andre Spight (21.9 ppg) has been a season-long revelation and is closing his college career with a rush (25.5 ppg last eight). |
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