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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-23 | Coppin State v. Maryland -31.5 | 53-75 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland (8-4) has a chance to extend that streak to 19 games on Thursday night with a tune-up against Coppin State (1-12) in College Park, Md. The Terrapins are coming off a 69-60 win Friday at UCLA that was propelled by a virtuoso performance from Jahmir Young, who scored a career-high 37 points on 13-of-19 shooting. Coppin State arrives on a five-game losing streak and has been idle since an 87-48 defeat at No. 20 James Madison on Dec. 19. |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets +3 | 129-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns took a 128-114 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas, Phoenix's ninth loss in 12 games following a seven-game winning streak that left the team a season-high five games over .500. An inability to cultivate any semblance of consistency continues to stall the Suns, whose injury concerns remain at the heart of their ongoing woes. Phoenix remains without Bradley Beal (ankle), who has logged only six games this season, and was also missing Jusuf Nurkic (personal) against the Mavericks. Beyond Beal, the injury issues haven't been overly debilitating but rather a constant nuisance, with the Suns laboring to construct a set rotation that can compete with the heavyweights in the Western Conference. The early-season struggles have yielded a fair share of think pieces contemplating what ails Phoenix. For their part, the Suns have yet to display any signs of panic despite everything that's gone awry. |
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12-26-23 | Hornets v. Clippers -11.5 | 104-113 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers shouldn’t have any problems beating the Hornets even if Kawhi Leonard remains on the sidelines. Charlotte has injury worries, too. The Hornets are without LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (back), while Terry Rozier (knee) and Brandon Miller (ankle) are both listed as questionable. Charlotte is a bad defensive unit, and LA will be scoring at will in this matchup. Hereof, I’m backing the Clippers to cover a double-digit spread in front of the home audience and make amends for an embarrassing loss to the Celtics. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten contests against the Hornets. LA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and 13-5 ATS in its previous 18 tilts versus the Southeast Division teams. On the other side, Charlotte is 2-4 ATS in its last six contests overall and 1-7 ATS in its last eight outings on the road. |
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12-26-23 | Kings -8 v. Blazers | 113-130 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings have won four of their last six games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 111 points per game on the road. They do a good job of finding the open man and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Blazers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Trailblazers aren’t very good defensively and they play worse at home, giving up more than 115 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Kings in this game. The Trailblazers have lost two straight games and five of their last six home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring less than 110 points per game. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Kings and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Kings, who average more than seven steals per game. The Kings aren’t great defensively, but they play better on the road and won’t be tested by the cold-shooting Blazers, so go with Sacramento to cover the spread. |
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12-23-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Kings | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Sacramento played on Friday against Phoenix. The Suns (14-13) are no joke and should push Sacramento. That will make for a slightly fatigued Kings team facing a Minnesota club who is one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Minnesota knocked off Los Angeles on Thursday and will be riding high, especially as winners of 10 of their last 12 games. The fact that Towns is out will hurt them, making this a close contest. |
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12-23-23 | Blazers +9 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers take on the Warriors for the third time this month, and Portland has covered the spread in its previous two dates with Golden State. The Warriors have been playing a ton of close games of late, so I’m backing the Blazers to grab their third consecutive ATS victory over Golden State. On paper, Golden State is a better team than Portland, but the Warriors will have to deal with fatigue in this game. The Warriors have gone 3-4 ATS over their previous seven games, and each of those seven contests have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Blazers will look to slow things down once more and force the Warriors into half-court basketball, so I’m expecting Portland to hang around down the stretch. |
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12-23-23 | Grizzlies v. Hawks | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Hawks played well over the past week and they’ve won three of their last four games. They will try to keep the momentum going with a win over the Grizzlies, which will give them their fourth win in their last five games. Atlanta is averaging 123.1 points per game. They scored 134 points in their last game, making 51.6 percent of their field goals and 42.5 percent of their three-pointers. Trae Young led the Hawks with 30 points, four rebounds, and 14 assists. Bogdan Bogdanovic finished with 22 points, four rebounds, and five assists, while Dejounte Murray added 21 points, three rebounds, and five assists. |
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12-22-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Kings | 105-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix is arguably a better defensive team than Sacramento, but I’m not sure the Suns will be able to take full advantage of the Kings’ defensive flaws. The Suns have scored more than 112 points just twice in their last seven outings overall, and it looks like Phoenix rely on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker way too much. On the other side, the Kings might be vulnerable following that thrashing at the hands of the Celtics. It’s hard to trust Sacramento’s defense, so I’m backing the Suns to keep it close and hopefully upset the Kings. Phoenix should be able to slow the pace down and force Sacramento into half-court basketball which is crucial for the Suns in this matchup. |
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12-22-23 | Southern Indiana +16.5 v. Southern Illinois | 50-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-22-23 | SMU -5.5 v. Murray State | 92-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mustangs should close out 2023 with a comfortable win at Murray State. They are superior on the glass to Murray State. The Mustangs defend both the interior and perimeter expertly and should hold the subpar Murray State offense to less than 60 points in this game. While the Racers rarely turn the ball over, they will have a plethora of one-and-done possessions thanks to their inability to shoot the ball well and the team's struggles on the glass. The Mustangs will control the pace and tempo of this game and cruise to their 9th win. |
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12-22-23 | Drexel -3 v. Bryant | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-18-23 | Nets v. Jazz +4 | 108-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even if the Jazz don't win, there's little chance that this game won't come down to the wire. Utah only has two home games that ended with a loss by at least five points and one of those was opening night. At the very least, the Jazz +4 is the best way to bet this game. Turnovers kill Utah's offense, but Brooklyn is the worst defense at forcing them. The Jazz's dominant offensive rebounding will also give them ample opportunity against a team allowing 122.8 points during their current road trip. Bet on a tight game, if not another Utah home win. |
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12-18-23 | Oakland +16.5 v. Michigan State | 62-79 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan State and Oakland play every year, but the Golden Grizzlies have yet to beat the Spartans in 21 meetings since Oakland became a Division I program in 1998. Oakland (6-5) will have had 10 days off since its last game, a 77-63 win at Eastern Michigan on Dec. 8. It will be the third Big Ten opponent this year for Oakland, which lost by six at Ohio State and by 11 at Illinois to open the season. The Golden Grizzlies are led in scoring by Trey Townsend (15.8 points) in what is head coach Greg Kampe's 40th season at the helm. |
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12-17-23 | Warriors -5.5 v. Blazers | 118-114 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing poorly and each has gone 1-2 ATS in the last three. The difference is that Golden State is 7-3-0 ATS in the last 10, and has been playing better overall. The Warriors have already beaten the Trail Blazers once this season and have taken eight of the last 10 meetings, going 6-3-1 ATS. The Trail Blazers are just a mess right now, the kind of team who can help Golden State right the ship. |
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12-17-23 | Magic v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is atop the Southeast Division but they have done most of their damage at home, going 11-2 at the Amway Center compared to a 5-6 road mark on the year. We saw the Magic struggle in their matchup against the Celtics Friday night in a game where Boston didn’t have Horford or Porzingis in the mix, yet they still won by 17. Boston is a perfect 13-0 at home this season with only two of those games decided by six points or less. The Celtics are a dangerous team on the offensive end and they get the job done making life tough for opposing squads defensively. Look for this game to go in favor of Boston as Tatum, Brown and company do their part once again. |
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12-16-23 | Knicks v. Clippers -5.5 | 122-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Because New York plays on Friday, a line and total were not set for this game at the time this preview was written. That is irrelevant because Los Angeles should dominate this game. Not only will the Knicks be fatigued after playing on Friday. New York is not only struggling, but they have given up at least 133 in three of the last four games. The Clippers are rolling. They have won their last five games by at least eight points. Look for the Clippers to win this game by at least 11. |
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12-16-23 | Mavs -5 v. Blazers | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The day off on Friday night will surely do this Mavericks team wonders, particularly superstar Doncic. Doncic has certainly been carrying the load for his team in Irving's absence. They have won four out of five games heading into Portland and Doncic is putting up MVP numbers. While the Mavs are susceptible to teams that can run an efficient offense, the Blazers are not that team. Additionally, the Blazers are not likely to slow down the Mavericks' high-octane offense. I expect another big night from Doncic and the superstar guard will find a teammate to play off of as he has throughout this current run. The Blazers give away too many possessions with turnovers and are last in the league in shooting. This one will be a big win for the Mavs. |
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12-16-23 | NC-Greensboro v. Marshall +2 | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-16-23 | Radford -4 v. Bucknell | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-16-23 | Clemson v. Memphis -2.5 | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is a clash of styles in this game, and both teams have strengths that their opponent will struggle to defend. Clemson has a strong post player and is surrounded by outside shooters. Memphis has an elite level do-everything wing, surrounded by athletes everywhere to fly up and down the floor. With the game being in Memphis, I believe they will be able to control the tempo, push the pace, and take advantage of Clemson's lack of speed. PJ Hall is a nice center for Clemson, but he will not be able to keep up in a footrace with Memphis as they will beat him down both ends of the floor. Memphis is also more athletic on the perimeter and will have a hand in Joe Girard III's face on every shot. David Jones has been on fire lately for Memphis, he has scored over 22 in three straight games and is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Memphis has depth on the perimeter, and will play to their strengths by pushing the tempo on both ends of the floor. |
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12-16-23 | Rider v. Monmouth -4.5 | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-16-23 | Towson v. Bryant +2.5 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-15-23 | Portland State v. San Diego +2.5 | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-15-23 | Northern Colorado v. Colorado -21 | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coach Prime has stolen all the headlines about the Colorado Buffaloes, but the men's basketball team is putting together a special season. Colorado (7-2), led by junior guard KJ Simpson, already has been ranked and is on the verge of getting back into the polls. The Buffaloes can state their case when they host Northern Colorado on Friday night in Boulder, Colo. Simpson leads the team in scoring with 19.4 points per game and is also averaging 4.4 assists and 4.3 rebounds. He had 20 points in a 90-63 rout of then-No. 15 Miami on Sunday, and his coach believes he should be in the conversation with the best guards in the nation. |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -4 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a dominant first quarter (30-19), the Celtics lost by 17 points to the Magic in their previous matchup this season. Orlando scored 94 points in the final three quarters, shooting 50.6 percent overall with a 60-40 scoring advantage in the paint and a +17 rebounding margin. The Magic put the C's on the free-throw line too much (37 FT attempts) and turned the ball over 18 times, but Boston struggled to find its stroke from three-point range (7-for-29). In Friday's rematch, I expect the Celtics to play a more complete game, knocking down more threes and holding their own inside. The Magic are unlikely to replicate their performance, as they rarely shoot the basketball that efficiently and won't dominate the Celtics again at the rim, as the C's boast the third-lowest opponent rim% in the league (57.2%). Porzingis, who only played 22 minutes in the first meeting, will do his duty as the team's rim protector, keeping Mo Wagner (27 points on 9-of-13 shooting) in check this time around. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers -8.5 v. Wizards | 123-137 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers are solid on the road, winning four of their last six road bouts including a win against the Hawks and Heat. The Washington Wizards continue to struggle and only have one home win all season. They have lost 15 of their last 16 games. This is an ideal matchup for Indiana who leads the NBA in scoring. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are last in points allowed and points conceded per 100 possessions. Indiana is sporting a dazzling 50.7% field goal percentage and opponents are shooting a stunning 50% against the Wizards. They have lost by at least 20 points in three consecutive games. |
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12-14-23 | Nets +9.5 v. Nuggets | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-13-23 | Weber State +10 v. Nevada | 55-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nevada is arguably a much better offensive team than Weber State, but I think the Wildcats’ defense is good enough to contain the Wolf Pack and help the team beat the number. Weber State takes good care of the ball (25th in turnover percentage, 14.2%) and dominates on the defensive glass (13th in defensive rebound percentage, 77.5%) while keeping its rivals off the free-throw line (33rd in defensive free-throw rate (24.9). The Wolf Pack love to attack the rim and are third in the country in free-throw rate (50.2). They should win this game, but I’m not sure Nevada will be able to beat Weber State by double digits. The Wolf Pack will have a tall task to slow Dillon Jones down. |
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12-13-23 | Chicago State v. Northwestern -24.5 | 75-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Struggling Chicago State (3-9) hasn't faced a Power Five school this season and is coming off Sunday's 66-50 home loss to the St. Thomas (Minnesota). The Cougars shot just 38.8 percent from the floor, including 27.8 percent from 3-point range. Wesley Cardet and Noble Crawford paced Chicago State with 12 points each, but the team couldn't maintain its momentum down the stretch after drawing within 49-45 with seven minutes to go. Should the Cougars aim to trap Buie, who scored 31 points in the upset of Purdue, the Wildcats will be ready. Buie had eight assists against Detroit Mercy as Northwestern's ball movement kept the Titans off-balance. The Wildcats assisted on 29 of their 34 field goals. Reserve Nick Martinelli shot 10-for-12 from the floor en route to a career-best 22 points. Ryan Langborg hit five of Northwestern's 10 treys and scored 19 points, while Ty Berry (16) and Brooks Barnhizer (13) also finished in double figures. The Wildcats also were plus-four on the glass and had nine steals, four from Langborg. Northwestern is 15-0 against Chicago State all-time, including an 85-54 victory in its season opener a year ago. The Wildcats' 31-point margin of victory was their smallest in the series since a four-point win in December 2016. |
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12-13-23 | Murray State v. Mississippi State -16 | 81-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Bulldogs score 75.4 points per game (166th) on 43.6 percent shooting (236th), including 31.3 percent from long range (265th). They knock down 71.4 percent of their foul shots (161st) and average 38.9 rebounds per game (22nd). MSU's opponents score 62.0 points per game (19th) on 37.2 percent shooting (12th), including 24.9 percent from deep (4th), with 30.3 rebounds per game (126th). Mississippi State is ranked 28th nationally. |
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12-11-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -12 | 127-132 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday night's NBA lineup features four games with double-digit spreads, hinting at potential blowouts, and the Trail Blazers vs. Clippers game is no exception. The matchup looks particularly challenging for Portland, prompting me to side with the Clippers, who are favored by a significant margin. Portland's situation is tough, with key players Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon, and Deandre Ayton all questionable due to injuries. Given that they're already struggling offensively, ranking last in the league, the potential absence or limited capacity of these scorers could severely hamper their performance. The Clippers, in contrast, are in good health and riding a three-game winning streak. Statistically, Los Angeles has a 6-5 record against the spread and a 7-4 overall record when scoring above 112.4 points. Additionally, they have an ATS record of 6-4 and an 8-2 overall record when holding opponents below 105.5 points. Considering these factors, I expect the Clippers to have a strong showing and comfortably handle Portland on their home court. |
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12-11-23 | Nets +5.5 v. Kings | 118-131 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-10-23 | Boston College v. St. John's -5.5 | 86-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game may be on a neutral court, but St. John's will have the fandom edge based on where it is. Outside of that, they're already a better team. The Red Storm's greatest advantage will be on the glass, which will lead them to a comfortable win. One of the other key separators for this game is that the Red Storm hits 37.1% of their threes, and Boston College only knocks down 33.9%. Considering that both defenses allow opponents to hit more than 37% of their threes, sharpshooting will also make a massive difference. St. John's beats Boston College there too, and will win this game by more than six points. |
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12-10-23 | Elon v. NC-Greensboro -13 | 73-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The UNC Greensboro Spartans use a very strong offense that is excellent at long distance shooting together with a defense that limits opponents to a low shooting percentage. UNC Greensboro shoots 39.7% from three point land which is 15th best in the nation and holds opponents to a field goal shooting percentage of just 40.4%. UNC Greensboro scores 79.9 points per game and allows 10.5 points less at 70.4 points per game. Elon is scoring an average of 82.8 per game but gives up 77.6 per contest and gives up high shooting percentages as opponents are making 46.3% overall and 32.2% from 3 point land against the Phoenix. Elon has failed to cover the spread in each of the last two while going 1-1 straight up over that span. UNC Greensboro has won each of its last six straight up and is 3-2 ATS over that span, which included a victory straight up over Arkansas as 15-point road dogs. |
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12-10-23 | Tennessee Tech v. East Tennessee State -8 | 72-73 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-10-23 | Brown v. Providence -15 | 54-74 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Friars have won seven of their last nine games and six straight home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 79 points per game while making over 49 percent of their shots. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won’t give the Bears a lot of easy scoring chances. The Bears have struggled defensively and they play worse on the road, giving up more than 73 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Friars in this game. The Bears have lost eight of their last 11 games and four of their last five road games. They have struggled offensively and barely scored more than 60 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Friars and won’t get a lot of second-chance opportunities against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Friars. The Friars have done a good job defensively, especially at home where they are holding opponents under 65 points per game, so expect them to keep Brown’s offense in check. Go with Providence to cover the spread. |
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12-09-23 | Notre Dame v. Marquette -20.5 | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has been solid defensively but their inability to shoot the ball with any kind of sustained success is going to be a problem here. The Fighting Irish lost both their road games this season, losing by 12 to South Carolina and by 14 to Miami, failing to score more than 52 points in either of those contests. That kind of production isn’t going to get it done against a Marquette team that has put up at least 85 points four times already this season. The Golden Eagles have already beaten Illinois, UCLA, Texas and Kansas while taking Purdue to the limit in a three-point loss in the Maui Invitational last month. Playing at home against an offensively challenged Notre Dame squad works in the Golden Eagles’ favor as they roll to a victory here. |
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12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has played solid basketball but they have yet to run into a team like the Pacers. Indiana can slice and dice teams offensively, as we’ve seen throughout the in-season tournament, led by the explosive Haliburton. Taking down a pair of division leaders in the Celtics and Bucks is no easy feat, much less under the pressure of a knockout stage situation like Indiana has faced. The Pacers seem unflappable and the Lakers, even with their pedigree and the duo of James plus Davis, isn’t going to rattle this Indiana squad. In a game that ends up being decided late, the Pacers’ youth and depth proves critical as they earn the NBA Cup crown. Take the points here to be safe but don’t be surprised if the Pacers win outright. |
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12-09-23 | Marshall +9 v. Ohio | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bobcats have been a strong offensive team as they are scoring 79.9 points per game, which is 87th in the nation. However, their defense needs some work as they are 268th in the United States with 74.9 points allowed per game up to this point. The Marshall offense has been doing decently well throughout the season as they are 208th in the country with 73.8 points per game. |
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12-09-23 | Central Michigan v. Creighton -31 | 64-109 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one could get very ugly this afternoon. The Chippewas come in at 3-5 and struggle to put points on the board. The Creighton Bluejays are 21st in the nation in points per game and are coming off a 29-point thumping of Nebraska at home. The Bluejays are efficient with the basketball, move it well, and rarely give away possessions. In addition, they will battle with a CMU team that is just 246th in the nation in 3-point defense while ranking 22nd in 3-point shooting. Creighton is also ranked fourth in the nation in the percentage of points coming off 3-point field goals. Don't be frightened by this big line, the Bluejays will run away with this one. |
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12-08-23 | Mavs -8 v. Blazers | 125-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Malcolm Brogdon exited the Warriors game because of right knee soreness. Jerami Grant (concussion) didn’t play last Wednesday, and he could easily miss the Mavericks game. Anfernee Simmons’ return is a huge boost for the Trail Blazers’ offense, but I cannot go against the Mavs, who just beat Utah by 50 points. The Blazers defend the 3-point line very well, but the Mavs have enough weapons to attack the rim. Dallas will push the ball in transition a lot, and the Trail Blazers will struggle to contain the Mavs in transition. |
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12-08-23 | Pistons v. Magic -10.5 | 91-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are a train wreck wrapped in a dumpster fire with a nice coating of Three Mile Island mixed in at this point. Eighteen straight losses have piled up as the Pistons’ last victory came back on October 28 against the Bulls. Going on the road against the Magic here isn’t a good matchup for them as their lone road win came against Charlotte back on October 26. Orlando has dropped two straight after a nine-game win streak but they are taking on a team that has had issues all season long. The Magic is 9-2 at home this season while the Pistons are only 1-9 on the road entering this game. Orlando should take care of business here and get back in the win column. |
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12-08-23 | Navy v. Quinnipiac -4.5 | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game should be another tight one, although overtime is unlikely to strike again. Dating back to last December, the Nets have taken three trips to Atlanta. They're 1-2 in those contests, with each loss coming by exactly two points. On the court (again) this season, Brooklyn should have the edge in overall shooting (especially from deep) and a slight rebounding edge. Atlanta should win at the free throw line and have a slight advantage with turnovers. This game should be tight, with the Nets potentially pulling out the win. Taking them to cover is the best bet. |
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12-06-23 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 v. Morgan State | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-05-23 | Suns +1.5 v. Lakers | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers have had Phoenix’s number of late but one has to wonder if they can maintain that momentum here. Los Angeles hasn’t faced the Durant/Booker combination in either meeting this season. In the first matchup, Booker and Beal both missed the contest while in the second meeting, Beal played one of his three games to date while Booker was out. We just saw Booker have a big game against Memphis Saturday night and Durant has been solid as well. The Lakers have their 1-2 punch of Davis and James though you always have to be concerned with the injury bug with those guys. Phoenix is motivated to earn a win here against a team that has beaten them four straight times and they want a shot at the NBA Cup crown. Give the edge to the Suns here as they earn the win. |
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12-05-23 | Indiana +7.5 v. Michigan | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Hoosiers have won three in a row and their only defeat was against #5 UConn. They have defeated Louisville and Maryland in their last three games. The Michigan Wolverines have dropped four of their last five games with the only victory in that span coming against Stanford. Long Beach State even dealt them an upset loss. The Hoosiers are the superior defensive squad here. They just kept Maryland to 53 points and are only allowing 98.7 points per 100 possessions, compared to 102.7 points per by 100 by the Wolverines according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. The Wolverines rank 125th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Each of the Hoosiers' last five wins have been by eight or more points. |
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12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -4.5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets are currently facing a challenging phase, having lost their last two games and conceding at least 121 points in each. This streak of losses has brought them down to a .500 record. In a recent matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers in L.A., the Rockets narrowly lost by just one point but managed to cover the spread. The Lakers, on the other hand, have a record of 6-4 against the spread and 7-3 overall when they score more than 107.3 points. Additionally, they are 5-5 against the spread and 8-2 overall when allowing fewer than 110.9 points. Despite LeBron James being listed as questionable, the Lakers are expected to perform strongly in their return home after a four-game road trip. The Rockets, who have not secured a road win this season, are likely to face another setback in this game. It's anticipated that the Lakers will excel on both ends of the floor, securing a win, covering the spread, and handing the Rockets their third consecutive loss. |
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12-02-23 | Santa Clara +1.5 v. California | 69-84 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have done a great job thus far even though they returned just 20.1 percent of minutes and 17.3 percent of scoring from their 2022-23 roster. Per Bart Torvik, Santa Clara is a top-30 team in the nation in both 2-point percentage (57.1%) and opposing 2-point percentage (43.3%). I’ve mentioned the Broncos big win over Oregon, the second of the season against the Pac-12 team (89-77 at Stanford). I think the Broncos have the length to compete against the Bears, who also have a lot of new faces on their roster. Cal turns the ball over on 20.9 percent of its possessions while handing out just 9.1 assists per game. The Broncos are not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but their offense is 43rd in assists per game (16.8) and 177th in turnover percentage (17.7%). |
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12-01-23 | Purdue -5 v. Northwestern | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Experience matters, that's why scheduling a soft non-conference schedule just to pick up some easy wins can be detrimental to the growth of your team. Northwestern has not had the easiest non-conference slate in the land, but they were only listed as underdogs once and lost that game to Mississippi State without covering. Northwestern should have pounded Western Michigan as they were 23.5-point favorites, but only won by four. Purdue on the other hand has played one of the toughest schedules in the country and won every single game. Purdue has defeated three top-15 teams and will roll into their first conference game with confidence. Northwestern has a 7-footer in Nicholson, but he is not an answer to their Edey problem. At 7'4 Edey is still too big and powerful and will dominate inside again. Northwestern's strength is on the perimeter with Boo Buie, but Purdue's Braden Smith is an excellent perimeter defender and will crowd Buie and take away his open looks. Too much talent for the Boilermakers. |
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12-01-23 | Southern Miss v. UABÂ -9 | 85-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers were run over in the second half of their last game, but I feel confident predicting a more complete performance from them on Friday at home. UAB ranks as the better offensive and defensive squad, plus it's much more battle-tested. The Eagles have played the 190th-toughest strength of schedule, per KenPom, while the Blazers' schedule is rated 107th-toughest. Having already played Bradley, Clemson, and Maryland, UAB should be able to handle Southern Miss. The Eagles have not shot the basketball efficiently (321st nationally in FG%) and don't focus on one area of the court more than another. Per Hoop-Math, they attempt 34.8% of their shots at the rim, 33.1% from the mid-range, and 32.1% from beyond the arc. That figures to be easier for the Blazers to defend. |
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11-30-23 | Hawks -7.5 v. Spurs | 137-135 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio has lost 12 straight games and haven’t won since downing the Suns in back-to-back road games October 31 and November 2. The Spurs are a dismal 1-8 at home this season and they are trying to get their young players up to speed, which of course, leads to a lot of growing pains. Atlanta has been up and down this season but they have a variety of guys that can pile up points in a hurry. San Antonio has a generational talent in Wembenyama but he’s still adapting to the NBA style. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a team full of guys that have been around and contributed at this level for a while. Young and Murray lead the way as the Hawks cruise to a victory to get back to the .500 mark on the season. |
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11-30-23 | NC-Wilmington +1.5 v. East Carolina | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The UNC Wilmington offense will overpower the East Carolina defense. The Seahawks are too deadly from long range to be stopped by an inferior defense such as East Carolina’s which is allowing 74.0 points per game and 48.2% shooting. East Carolina’s opponents shoot 34.3% from 3-point territory and UNC Wilmington is second best in the nation from three-point territory hitting 43.5% of their 3-point bombs. Wilmington is averaging 85.7 points per game and it's not because they play uptempo, as they are just 237th in adjusted tempo at 67.8. It's because they are excellent shooters. Leading scorer Trazarien White is shooting 60.6% overall and 36.4% from 3-point territory and three of the top five scorers shot 51.7% or higher. East Carolina doesn't have the shooters to keep pace with the hot shooting Wilmington. East Carolina has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five. |
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11-30-23 | Texas Tech +3 v. Butler | 95-103 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fresh off its biggest victory of the young season, Texas Tech takes on another challenge today with a road game against Butler as part of the inaugural Big East-Big 12 Battle. The Red Raiders rolled past Michigan 73-57 last week at the Battle for Atlantis to finish 2-1 at the event. The Bulldogs (5-2) delivered a similar showing in Orlando at the ESPN Events invitational, with back-to-back wins against Penn State and Boise State after a narrow loss to No. 19 Florida Atlantic. Now two teams with reconstructed rosters collide as they work toward establishing a long-term identity. For Texas Tech (5-1), this is the first true road game, and that's a challenge first-year coach Grant McCasland wants his team to embrace. |
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11-29-23 | CS-Northridge +4 v. Pacific | 80-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This game could easily go either way. Just take a look at the teams’ recent results. The Matadors lost to Le Moyne and embarrassed Mississippi Valley State, while the Tigers barely defeated those two teams at home. Interestingly, each of Pacific’s last four games has been decided by three or fewer points. I’m expecting to see a high-tempo battle between CSUN and Pacific. The Matadors should have enough weapons to keep it close down the stretch, so I’m going with the underdogs. Pacific is struggling to defend the paint which suits CSUN’s style of play. The Matadors are 359th in the country in 3-point rate and 89th in 2-point percentage (53.6%). |
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11-29-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Facing a degree of uncertainty, the Denver Nuggets are dealing with the potential absence of key players Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray, all listed as questionable for the upcoming game. Despite these concerns, the Nuggets are still favored by 6 points in their home game, a confidence likely bolstered by the Houston Rockets' challenging schedule, as they enter this game without any days of rest. Denver's performance against the spread stands at 7-8, but they have an impressive 12-3 overall record when they score more than 105.5 points in a game. The Rockets, on the other hand, showed a strong effort in their last game against the Mavericks. However, their struggle on the road is evident, having lost all six away games this season. This pattern is expected to continue in their upcoming matchup. The Nuggets, coming off a solid win, are anticipated to maintain their momentum and secure another victory in this encounter. |
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11-29-23 | Louisiana Tech +7.5 v. New Mexico | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units La Tech looks to keep its five-game winning streak going on the road against New Mexico. The Bulldogs are 203rd in points per game this season. They are 167th in field goal percentage and 184th in 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are 55th in the country in points allowed per game. They are 80th in field goal defense and 80th in defensive field goal percentage. They are 63rd in three-point defense in the country. La Tech is 151st in turnovers per game this season. They are an above average rebounding team, ranked 125th in the country in total rebounding. |
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11-29-23 | Lakers -7 v. Pistons | 133-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers come into Detroit with a chip on their collective shoulders following a 44-point loss to the Sixers on Monday night. James' cryptic response about the team needing changes quickly should put fear in the hearts of any Laker who doesn't have a firm spot on the roster. In the short term, the Lakers should be able to dominate a Pistons' team that has lost 14 straight games. The Lakers have struggled recently as well, mainly due to injuries to several key bench players such as Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and Vincent. Luckily, the Pistons are also banged up with two key shooters out in Brogdonovich and Harris. The loss of both players has hampered the team's shooting from outside and forced them to be a team that relies on points in the paint. The presence of Davis in the paint should hamper some of those plans on Wednesday night. The Lakers are 3rd in the NBA in field goal percentage and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. I expect them to dominate the game on both ends on Wednesday and pick up an easy win. |
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11-28-23 | Warriors +1.5 v. Kings | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In their first matchup, the Golden State Warriors triumphed over the Sacramento Kings 122-114 without Draymond Green. In their second encounter, the Warriors narrowly won 102-101, but the Kings were missing key player De'Aaron Fox. Draymond Green's absence in the last five games has been felt by the Warriors, particularly in their defense, but his return is expected to bolster the team's offensive opportunities for players like Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins. In the previous games, Domantas Sabonis had a significant impact against the Warriors, and De'Aaron Fox scored 41 points in their first meeting. Both teams have been strong offensively, with the Warriors ranked 12th and the Kings 10th in offensive rating. However, the game's outcome may hinge on the Warriors' defense, currently 12th in the NBA, and the inconsistent performance of the Kings' role players. The return of Draymond Green could elevate the Warriors' defense. The Kings' bench struggled in both meetings, and they may be without starter Keegan Murray due to a back injury. Additionally, the Kings' defensive rating is only 21st in the league. The Warriors, aiming for a three-way tie for first place in In-Season Tournament Group C, will rely on Curry for another strong performance and plan to challenge the Kings by focusing on players other than Sabonis or Fox. |
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11-28-23 | Idaho State +8 v. Pepperdine | 62-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think the Waves will put an end to their losing streak, but I don’t want to lay all these points with them. Pepperdine’s interior defense has been awful so far this season, and the Waves are traditionally a bad defensive team. The Bengals make 54.2% of their 2-pointers (79th in the nation), so I’m going with Idaho State to beat the number. The Waves lean on their 3-point shooting, and the Bengals’ defense is 13th in the nation in 3-point rate (27.8) and 4th in 3-point percentage (29.3). Idaho State will look to slow the pace down as much as possible and force Pepperdine into half-court basketball. I’m expecting the Bengals to hang around down the stretch. |
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11-28-23 | Southern v. Marquette -32.5 | 56-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marquette (5-1) went 2-1 in the stacked Maui Invitational field, including taking down then-No. 1 Kansas before coming up short in the championship game to then-No. 2 Purdue by a 78-75 final. The Boilermakers are now the top-ranked team in the country. The Golden Eagles trailed by as many as 15 in the second half against Purdue and got within one before the comeback bid stalled. Marquette's Tyler Kolek led the way with 22 points, along with seven rebounds and six assists, while Kam Jones added 17 points. Southern (1-5) arrives on a four-game losing streak, most recently falling 71-59 on the road at Valparaiso on Saturday. Marquette is 2-0 against Southern since the 2013-14 season, with the last matchup in 2018 when Marquette won in an 84-41 blowout in Milwaukee. |
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11-28-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder come in just a game behind Minnesota in this one and will not only cover the spread but will come out with the win too. The Thunder have been able to put it all together on both ends of the court and have the length to match the Timberwolves, which is something many others have struggled with. The Thunder have the best player in this game in SGA and with Holmgren coming along nicely too, especially from the perimeter, it gives this team quite a few more options to lean on. The key advantage for Oklahoma City is on the offensive end, where they are one of the league's most efficient teams, which translates well to success on the road. They have confidence and momentum, and their youngsters won't be daunted being on the road, while covering the spread in all but one of their last seven games, shows a trend building. |
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11-28-23 | Utah State v. St. Louis +7 | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah State looked impressive at a neutral site, but giving up 6.5 points on the road is different. The Aggies are proud of their in-season tournament championship, as they should be, but the field in the Cayman Islands Classic was watered down. Defeating teams like Marshall, Akron and Stephen F. Austin does not do much to improve your resume. Keep in mind, Utah State has only played one true road game this season, and lost on the road to Bradley. Saint Louis is undefeated at home on the season, they have a chance to spring an upset on their home floor, but taking the 6.5 points is still the play. Utah State's offense is only ranked 102nd in the nation, and their tempo is 182nd; they do not score with great efficiency or play at a break-neck pace. Utah State will not run up the score here, they lost their only road game, and Saint Louis is undefeated at home. Hargrove Jr. and Jimerson provide the Billikens with a strong enough inside-out game to keep this close. |
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11-28-23 | Bucks v. Heat +3 | 131-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks have had their difficulties with the Heat, going 2-2 last season during the regular season but losing in five games in the opening round of the playoffs to the Heat. In fact, the Bucks are now 0-3 in their last four games in Miami. The Heat have not just won the four games, they've done so handily in each case. The four home wins against the Bucks have come by an average of just over 12.5 points per contest. While Lillard's presence changes the dynamic somewhat, the Bucks lose a key defender like Jrue Holiday in the process. Holiday was capable of guarding both the point guard and Jimmy Butler at times but the Bucks won't have that luxury with Lillard, an inferior defender to Holiday. I like the Heat to exploit their matchup advantages in this game and pull out a win over the Bucks. If you are feeling aggressive, forego the points and take this game on the money line. |
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11-27-23 | Houston Christian +35 v. TCU | 64-101 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With its Big 12-Big East Battle matchup at Georgetown set for Saturday, TCU has one last tune-up tonight as the Horned Frogs welcome Houston Christian to Fort Worth, Texas, aiming to keep their undefeated season intact. TCU (5-0) is coming off a 93-74 win over Alcorn State last Tuesday. Houston Christian is winless in four games, though the Huskies lost twice by single digits. |
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11-26-23 | New Orleans v. Central Arkansas +5 | 79-74 | Push | 0 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-26-23 | Blazers v. Bucks -12.5 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won six of their last seven games and six straight home games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 121 points per game while making over 49 percent of their shots. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They have also protected the ball well and won’t give the Trailblazers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Trailblazers aren’t very good defensively and they play worse on the road where they are giving up more than 114 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bucks in this game. The Trailblazers have lost eight of their last nine games and four straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 110 points per game. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Bucks and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bucks, who average more than seven steals per game. The Bucks aren’t great defensively, but they play better at home, so expect them to keep Portland’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the spread. |
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11-26-23 | Wyoming v. Texas -15.5 | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas has the advantage of playing at home against a Wyoming team that hasn't had a true road test yet. Wyoming hasn't played a team close to this tough either. Along with that, the Longhorns need to bounce back from their first loss. All of that is to say, that Texas should blow out the Cowboys. The Longhorns have a defense that will completely stymie Wyoming. Texas will also control the rebounding battle. Nobody is stopping Texas from scoring, and that won't change on Sunday. Take Texas to cover. |
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11-26-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisville -8 | 84-90 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have renewed confidence in the Cardinals following their strong showing in New York City. They were in position to win both games and truly had the 19th-ranked Longhorns on the ropes before falling on a last-second shot. That confidence should carry over in this spot against a New Mexico State team that has struggled on both ends of the court this season. The Aggies have had difficulty scoring, shooting, and defending the opposition. Louisville has been above average defending the opposition this season, ranking 170th in defensive field goal percentage and 134th in 3-point defense. The biggest differential in this game is rebounding. Louisville is 50th in the nation while the Aggies are just under 300th in the nation. The Cardinals should dominate the glass and dominate the interior. |
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11-26-23 | Austin Peay v. Appalachian State -9 | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Southern Indiana +37 v. Duke | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Winthrop +9 v. Georgia | 69-78 | Push | 0 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Monmouth +7.5 v. Belmont | 93-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Charleston Southern +23 v. Wake Forest | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | BYU -10 v. Arizona State | 77-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BYU seeks its second 5-0 start in the past three seasons when it faces Arizona State on Thursday night in the opening round of the Vegas Showdown at Las Vegas. 4It isn't hard to pinpoint the most impressive of the Cougars' four straight wins. They took down then-No. 17 San Diego State, a national finalist last season, 74-65 on Nov. 10 in Provo, Utah. BYU is coming off a 93-50 rout of Morgan State on Nov. 18. It marked the third time the Cougars won by more than 40 points this season. Jaxson Robinson led BYU with 19 points, and Fousseyni Traore added 17 in the balanced attack that features seven players averaging at least nine points per game and five in double digits. |
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11-22-23 | Clippers -8 v. Spurs | 109-102 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won two straight games. They are playing well offensively, averaging more than 112 points per game. They are very good at rebounding the ball and very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Spurs a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Spurs have struggled offensively this season and they've given up at least 120 points in four straight games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Clippers in this game. The Spurs have lost nine straight games and six straight home games. They have struggled offensively and scored less than 110 points in three of their last four games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Clippers and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances. They have also been very careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Clippers, who averaged more than 11 steals per game in their last three games. The Clippers have played well defensively, giving up less than 105 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to keep San Antonio’s offense in check. Go with Los Angeles to cover the spread. |
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11-20-23 | Clippers v. Spurs +8.5 | 124-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers, despite being the superior team on paper, have faced their own set of challenges, losing 6 out of their last 7 games. Their sole victory in this stretch was clinched by a last-second three-pointer from James Harden. Adding to their woes, the Clippers haven't secured a single road win this season. While backing the San Antonio Spurs isn't particularly appealing, the prospect of favoring the Clippers with a significant point spread on the road (-9) is equally unenticing. In this scenario, opting for the Spurs with the points seems like the more prudent choice. It's noteworthy that when the Clippers score over 124.2 points, their record against the spread is 0-2, mirroring their overall record in such high-scoring games. |
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11-19-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 104-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets dismantled the Lakers last week, but Los Angeles missed Anthony Davis. Houston outscored the Lakers 68-42 in the paint while going 14-for-33 from downtown, whereas Los Angeles made just seven of its 25 shots from deep. Since then, the Lakers have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, though two of those four wins have come against Portland. The Lakers should have learned the lesson, so I’m backing them to beat the Rockets and cover a 5.5-point spread. Davis has struggled a bit of late, but his presence should help the Lakers to outlast Houston this time around. This is not the same Rockets team that lost 60 games last season. But they are still young and inexperienced, and the Rockets have gone 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS over their three road contests in 2023-24. |
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11-17-23 | Lakers -8.5 v. Blazers | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers are 2-0 in an inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament, looking to make another step toward the knock-out round. The Trail Blazers have gone 1-1 thus far and will have a mountain to climb in this matchup given their injury woes. Portland has dropped five straight games by an average margin of 10.2 points. If Malcolm Brogdon misses his fourth straight game, the Lakers will have a nice chance to cover an 8.5-point spread. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games played on Friday, and I’m expecting the Lakers to extend this streak. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a game that should be low-scoring, the Brooklyn Nets have an excellent chance of pulling off a road upset. Their offense is much better, especially when it comes to hitting threes. Brooklyn attempts a high volume of threes and is the league's third-most accurate team. The Heat have allowed opponents to hit 38.6% of their triples. Unless Miami takes fewer midrange shots, they won't shoot well in this one. The Nets are top 10 at forcing midrange misses and three-point misses. Both defenses are solid, so it'll come down to making shots. Brooklyn has that advantage, and it should lead them to a sixth straight win over the Heat. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Suns to pull away in this game thanks to the return of Booker to the starting lineup and Gordon off of the bench. The duo should allow the Suns to spread the floor against a Timberwolves team playing the second game of a back-to-back and coming off a highly emotional game with the Warriors. Durant should get more minutes of rest in this one with his all-star teammate back and Beal should continue to improve as he gets his wind up after missing the entire season prior to last week. Minnesota has been red-hot but I think it will be too hard for them to muster up the emotions needed in this one. |
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11-14-23 | Clippers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2Â Units The Nuggets will be making do without point guard Jamal Murray for the rest of the month of November as he recovers from a hamstring strain. So far so good for the champs with Reggie Jackson filling in nicely at point guard, primarily as a scorer with Jokic handling the passing duties. The Clippers still look like a team trying to figure things out with just one ball for several aging stars. Tyronne Lue must determine the best rotations to get his four veterans on the floor in the right situations. Malone's job for Denver is much easier with everything going through Jokic. Jokic has two triple-doubles in the three games that Murray has missed thus far as he takes a more prominent role in distributing the ball. Denver's defense has also been excellent this season and they should be looking forward to defending a Clippers team that looks disjointed right now. The Clippers have also been sloppy with the basketball and that should also feed into the Nuggets' offense. The most disheartening thing for the Clippers thus far has been their feeble record despite having one of the easiest schedules to start the season, ranking 28th in the league. Go with the Nuggets who will have more possessions, ranking 6th in turnovers, and knock down more shots with the league's top field goal percentage. |
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11-13-23 | Bulls v. Bucks -9 | 109-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great spot to back Milwaukee. The Bucks just lost two gams on the road, and return home hungry for a win. You cannot keep Giannis and the Bucks down for long, and Giannis has proven he only needs a little help to get things done. The Bulls do not have an answer for Antetokounmpo, Lavine and DeRozan are too small, and Vucevic is not quick enough to stay with him. That leaves Patrick Williams, who was benched for his poor play, or Torrey Craig to matchup with the former MVP. Add on top of this, Chicago is on the tail end of a back to back. The Bulls play a home game on Sunday night, then must travel to Milwaukee for this game the next night. Teams rarely play well on the second night of back-to-backs, and Chicago has not been playing well this season to begin with. Bucks return to home, will face a tired Chicago team, and get back in the win column after a couple losses. |
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11-12-23 | Blazers v. Lakers -9.5 | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The injury-depleted Trail Blazers will have a mountain to climb at Crypto.com Arena. I’ve mentioned their offensive struggles and if Malcolm Brogdon doesn’t suit up, the Lakers will come out on top with ease. Frankly, the Lakers have struggled so far this season, allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions (tied-19th in the NBA). The Trail Blazers surrender 109.8 points per 100 possessions (9th) mostly because they defend the 3-point line well (33.7%, 7th), but the Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting and will attack the rim all night long in this matchup. |
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11-07-23 | Auburn +1.5 v. Baylor | 82-88 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baylor lost a lot after last season, which will be hard to replicate early. Four of their five starters are gone, which took 68% of Baylor's scoring with them. The team's offense carried them in the 2022-23 campaign, and there's reason to doubt if the many newcomers can match last year's offense. Improving defensively is a massive question mark too. Looking at Auburn, they were a much more balanced team last season. They lost two key players, but most of last year's rotation is back. That continuity will be massive to begin the season, especially on the defensive end. The Tigers will come out roaring and earn an early Quadrant 1 win. |
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11-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets +2 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Sacramento was a force last season as they won the Pacific Division title while their run and gun offense was a force. This season, they have had their struggles shooting the ball, entering Sunday fourth-worst in the league in field goal percentage as a team. Without Fox, it puts a lot of pressure on Mitchell to try and step up to be a facilitator. Houston has looked good in their last two games, wins over Charlotte and Sacramento, and look to make it three straight wins at home. This Rockets team won’t be the same pushover they have been in recent seasons. If Fox was playing, the Kings would be the easy call here but without him, Sacramento muddles their way through. Take the Rockets at home in this one. |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +2.5 | 112-100 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trailblazers have won three straight games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better offensively during their winning streak, averaging 108 points per game. They’ve taken advantage of their chances at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. Their rebounding has been good and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Grizzlies were one of the best defensive teams in the league last season, but they haven’t looked good so far, and they’re giving up more than 120 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Trailblazers in this game. The Grizzlies have lost six straight games and three straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road where they are scoring less than 110 points per game. They also struggled at the charity stripe and barely made over 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Trailblazers and they’ve been careless with the ball, turning it over more than 15 times per game, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Trailblazers, who are averaging more than nine steals per game in their last three games. With the Blazers holding opponents under 105 points per game in their last three games, expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Portland to win outright. |
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11-04-23 | Bulls v. Nuggets -8.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here and their third game in four nights so fatigue could be a factor. Obviously, you’ll have to keep an eye out to see if any of the star players on either side sit out, which would obviously change the dynamic. With that said, the Nuggets are the defending champions and they have one of, if not the, top player in the league with Jokic. Denver is stingy defensively, extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor and they have the better talent to work with compared to Chicago. We’ve seen the Bulls struggle to shoot the ball with any consistency this season. Look for the Nuggets to prevail at home for this contest. |
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11-03-23 | Mavs +7 v. Nuggets | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll gladly take Dallas to cover, with Denver coming off a blowout loss and dealing with injuries to stars Murray and Jokic! The Mavs have the third-highest schedule-adjusted offensive rating, including the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage (58.2%). They have been especially dominant in the paint (67.7 rim FG%) and from three-point range (41.0%). I expect Doncic (33.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG) to have another monster game, leading the Mavs to an easy cover against the Nuggets. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz +1.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will be rested and ready to go despite playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight. They will also challenge the Magic's preference for a slower-paced game won in the paint by spacing the floor and forcing Orlando to defend well outside the paint. Orlando is playing the fourth and final game of this trip and is 1-2 thus far, losing each of the last two contests. Orlando's defense has progressively gotten worse on the trip highlighted by the 118 points allowed against the Clippers. The Jazz were able to defeat the Clippers earlier this season because of their ability to match the scoring of LA from long range. Expect the Jazz to stretch the floor and keep the Magic off balance on Thursday night to pick up the home win. |
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10-30-23 | Jazz v. Nuggets -8 | 102-110 | Push | 0 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even playing for the second straight day, whereas the Jazz are rested, home-court advantage should neutralize that aspect. Then, it's simply a question of whether or not the Jazz defense can stop Denver's offense. The answer based on what has transpired this season is an emphatic no. The Nuggets offense, currently the best in adjusted offensive rating, won't struggle to score at all against Utah. Scoring won't come as easy for the Jazz, who won't get many good looks from deep against Denver. A 4-0 start comes easily for the Nuggets. |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have been turning the ball over a lot thus far. Also, their defense has struggled a lot, so I’m backing the Clippers to bounce back from a tough loss in Salt Lake City. Los Angeles should play better defense in front of the home audience and take full advantage of the Spurs’ D. San Antonio has allowed a staggering 132 points in the paint through its first two outings in 2023-24, and the Spurs will struggle to contain the Clippers’ drives to the hoop. The Clippers went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Spurs last regular season. San Antonio has only covered once in its last four road games against the Clippers, who trounced the Spurs 138-100 in their previous encounter at Crypto.com Arena. |
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10-28-23 | Jazz +5.5 v. Suns | 104-126 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm going to assume that Booker misses this game, because there's no reason to play him with an injury that could linger and needs rest. In that case, Durant will have to score 40 in this one and while he might, his supporting cast is very weak without Booker and Beal. Markkanen, in a lot of ways, is a poor man's Durant, in the way he can score at that size and Collins gives them another capable big man scorer. That sizeable frontcourt will be difficult to defend for the smaller Suns. |
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10-27-23 | Nets v. Mavs -6 | 120-125 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has more weapons and has their identity figured out early in the season, while Brooklyn doesn't. The Maverick's backcourt of Doncic and Irving can be relied upon to score at least 40 points per night. Both guards have the ability to penetrate and draw the defense in, and that is why the front office surrounded the team with shooters. Williams, Kleber, Hardaway Jr. and Green all hit multiple threes in the opener. This creates more spacing and synergy in the offense. The Nets cannot rely on Cam Thomas to score 36 every night. Clearly, that is not the plan, but what is Brooklyn's identity? Ben Simmons no longer plays like an All-Star, and it has yet to be seen if Mikal Bridges can truly carry an NBA team as the top player on the squad. Dallas outrebounded the taller San Antonio in the opener, and can dominate inside here as well. Take the Mavericks as the better team in this early-season matchup. |
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10-26-23 | Suns +6 v. Lakers | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The Suns came out and took down the Warriors in game one on the road despite not having Beal available. While Beal's availability is still in question, the Suns should have enough fire to take down the Lakers. The Lakers will be a work in progress over the first part of the season. They have to adjust to James' playing time limitations and a roster full of new players. The loss of Jarred Vanderbilt to start the season is important to the Lakers' rotation. With Vanderbilt out, Prince has been put in a starting spot which weakens what could be a deep Lakers' bench. The Suns showed their own depth in the opener with 16 points off the bench from Gordon. Gordon will be a stalwart for the Suns' second unit and allow the team to thrive when either Durant or Booker is off the floor. The Suns also showed more toughness in the opener with Nurkic now at center. He earned a double-double on Tuesday night and helped to create space for Durant in the post. Word to the wise, jump on this line quickly. If Beal is cleared, this line will drop closer to one or two points. |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 89-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The spread is pretty wide here, but after the last two games, where the Nuggets won by double digits on the road, I think it is warranted. The Nuggets came into this series as a heavy favorite and just a flat out better team. Miami has been overachieving all season and Erik Spoelstra h as been making the right adjustments, outcoaching everyone is his wake. But he met his match with Malone, who has been one step ahead of the Heat. First he used the Nugget's size to his advantage, and then when Miami adjusted, they went outside and punished them from three. The Nuggets also shut down the role players that killed the Celtics and let Butler and Adebayo do their thing. A championship is so close they can taste it, and they will take care of business in front of the home crowd. Take the Nuggets to cover. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Expect Erik Spoelstra to go back to the zone he used in most of the Boston series and that will help slow down the Nuggets. That defensive gimmick will help a lot more in Game 2 when the Heat have their legs back since they have Friday and Saturday off. There's no doubt that going seven games against Boston had an effect on their performance on Thursday along with the altitude. Strus, Caleb Martin and Robinson combined for 2-for-23 in Game 1 and all three will bounce back in Game 2. Martin has been terrific in the postseason, averaging 13.5 points and shooting 44% from beyond the arc. But the biggest factor is Butler getting a couple of days off to rest his ankle and he will be looking to get to the line a lot more in this game. The Heat will push the Nuggets to the limit in Game 2 and will shoot a lot more than two free throws. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm usually not about chalk and big numbers in this situation, but Miami just had one of the most heartbreaking losses in the history of the NBA playoffs. Not to mention that they nearly won a game where Butler and Adebayo's jump shots were M.I.A. Butler's performance has regressed in the last two games where he's starting to show some fatigue. He's getting no lift on his jumpers and drives and it shows where Boston had blocked his shot 10 times in this series. Boston has also found a way to slow down Adebayo with the length of Robert Williams and the experience of Al Horford. Martin, Max Strus, Vincent and Duncan Robinson are not enough to defeat a more athletic Boston team even without Malcolm Brogdon. Tatum will go bonkers at home in Game 7. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are inexplicably three-point favorites in this one. What does Miami have to do to get some respect? I just don't see how you can favor the Celtics in this one, given that the Heat have not lost at home so far in the playoffs. The Celtics are the higher seed and the more talented team, but I have no confidence in their ability to close out a game in crunch time, especially against this Heat team, which has come up big time after time. The Celtics are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings versus the Heat. The Celtics could possibly win this but it would be only by a bucket late. Take the Heat getting the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I picked the Heat to cover in game 1 but I honestly did not expect them to actually win the game. Now they are 9 point underdogs and again, that feels like a lot. While I fully expect the Celtics to win in this game -- they have to or they are pretty much done. But Miami is not the type of team you blow out -- and 9 points is a lot. I just can't see the Celtics winning by double digits here. Miami won't shoot 52% from three again but they will play good enough defense and make enough big shots to keep this game close down the stretch. The Celtics will survive, but the Heat will cover. Take Miami getting the points. |
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