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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. Last year, here at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Coastal Carolina beat Kansas by a score of 12-7. It was the first time that the Chanticleers had EVER beaten a 'Power 5' school. Needless to say, Les Miles and co. haven't forgotten. While the Jayhawks are young, they're still the more talented team here. The fact that they don't have to travel more than 1000 miles during a pandemic also works in their favor. Coastal Carolina coach Chadwell acknowledged that travel presents challenges: "They know we can lose somebody today to quarantine or whatever it may be. Until we get on that plane, there is going to be some apprehension ..." Addtionally, Coastal Carolina had to relocate due to Hurricane Dorian. (The Chanticleers stayed and training in South Carolina's Upstate region.) Les Miles knows his team needs to beat the likes of the Chanticleers. He'll have his team ready; I say its "payback time." |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 197 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND. The Irish hammered the Blue Devils 38-7 last season. That kicked off a stretch which saw the Irish close out their season by winning each of their final five games by 21 or more points. Expectations are very high this season and I look for the Irish, now part of the ACC, to make a statement in this one. While Duke is capable defensively, it won't be capable enough to stop this Irish attack. Indeed, ND brings back eight starters including QB Ian Book, who had 34 TDs against just six INTs last season. Speaking of Book, he was outstanding against the Blue Devils last season and that was at Duke. He threw for four TDs while gaining 139 yards on the ground. In fact, in that game, he became the first ND QB to throw for three or more TDs and run for more than 100 yards. Things were already bad on the offensive side of the ball for Blue Devils but losing starting center Wohlabaugh to a knew injury was a major blow. Of the chance to play in the ACC, Brian Kelly noted: "...Our players are excited though, quite honestly, that they get a chance to play for a championship - an ACC championship.'' Expect a blowout. |
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09-10-20 | UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. Obviously, the Canes have the bigger name and hail from the bigger conference. They get to recruit the better players. That said, the Blazers have a lot working in their favor here. They've already got a game under their belts and put up 45 points in the process. They arguably played better than the 45-35 score indicates, too. Central Arkansas got a few scores off turnovers; UAB had a 459-293 edge in total yards, including a 233-100 rushing advantage. Having worked out a few kinks will help them here. Keep in mind that UAB went 9-5 last season and won a bowl game. While the Blazers return a number of key starters, the Canes lost a lot of them. Miami has struggled as a favorite in recent seasons and will have its hands full here. Grab the generous points. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Navy UNDER the total. BYU is nearly always stingy and with plenty of experience on that side of the ball, that should again be the case. The Cougars return seven starters on that side of the ball and several others who got plenty of playing time. Not always known for its defense, Navy is also expecting to be relatively stout this season. Coach Niumatalolo noted: ''We're counting on our defense to be our strength. As we get our quarterback group going, we're going to rely on our defense a lot. I have total faith in the them.'' The offense, a work in progress, has been hindered by a late start, shorter practices and safety protocols, due to the pandemic. While the Cougars return QB Wilson, he loses his receiving weapons. His tight-end (last year's leading receiver) got hurt and his three top receivers from last year are all gone. Look for points to prove harder to come by than many will be expecting. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Southern Miss UNDER the total. The Jags don't win many road games. In fact, they're 0-12 under Steve Campbell, when playing on the road. So, I'm reluctant to back them. Yet, I do expect them to fight hard and I'm not confident laying the big number with the Eagles, either. Instead, I believe that the value lies with the total. The Golden Eagles still have their star QB (Abraham) but he lost some weapons. Indeed, three of their top four offensive playmakers have moved on. Perhaps more importantly, they're learning new systems with a new offensive (and defensive) coordinator. That's significant given that they got less practice time than normal. They'll very likely win but I don't expect them to put up a huge number in the process. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than expected. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson v. LSU UNDER 70.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 193 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/LSU UNDER the total. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for both QBs and both offenses. That said, this is an extremely high O/U number and I also highly respect both defenses. Clemson held a potent Ohio State offense to 23 points to get here. That was a Buckeye team which came into that game averaging 48.7 ppg and 531.6 yards per game. Meanwhile, Clemson was held to 26 points. Prior to that game, Clemson had allowed 17 or fewer points in eight straight games. Over that 8-game span, they allowed a total of only 78, an average of less than 10 per game. LSU did allow some points (28) to Oklahoma but keep in mind that in its previous two games, it held Georgia and A&M to only 10 and 7. Did you know that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that Clemson played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games? (Last year's final game did go OVER with 60 points but the Tigers weren't playing with as much rest.) During that span, the UNDER is also 2-0 when the (Clemson) Tigers played a game with O/U line of 63 or more and 4-0 when they were off four or more consec. ATS wins. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 over the years when LSU was off three straight ATS victories, when favored by seven or more points. There will be plenty of scoring. Just not enough to reach this very big O/U number. |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 56.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -109 | 552 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Miss / Tulane OVER the total. These teams used to face each other on a yearly basis, the annual "Battle For The Bell." That series ended in 2010 with Southern Miiss winning by a 46-30 score in the final game. I expect another high-scoring affair when these old foes reunite on Jan. 4th. Tulane doesn't play much defense. Over their last five games, the Green Wave allowed 37, 34, 29, 26 and 41 points. They did score 20 or more in all five games, however, topping the 30 mark in three of them. All five games saw at least 50 points scored and they averaged 63. On the season, Tulane games averaged 60.7 ppg. While the Golden Eagles did finish the season on an 'under' streak, they also allowed at least 28 in each of their final two games and they scored 37 and 36 in their two previous games before that. Its worth mentioning that the OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the they've been listed as neutral field underdogs. Having gone 0-2 SU/ATS their final two, its also noteworthy that the Golden Eagles have seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they'd failed to cover each of their past two games and a 2-0 OVER mark when they were off b2b SU losses. As for the Armed Forces Bowl itself, its been very high-scoring of late. In 2015, this bowl had a score of 35-34. The next season, the score was 55-36. That was followed by a 48-45 game and a 42-35 one after that. Last season's game had a score of 70-14. With both offenses having success, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
FRIDAY 10* CFB MAIN EVENT (71% IN 2020) **OHIO/NEVADA** While he came up short with the total in the Birmingham Bowl, Ben Burns already has a 5-2 (+$2,810) record with his top rated selections in 2020. He's putting that 71.43% RECORD on the line for this afternoon's Idaho Potato Bowl. Don't miss it! I'm playing on OHIO. Nevada has the better record and played in the tougher conference. Yet, Ohio is favored. What gives? Indeed, a lot of people are likely going to be quick to grab the points, based on the records/conferences alone. However, in my opinion, the Bobcats are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. Here are a few of the reasons why. The Bobcats outscored teams by 92 points this season. Nevada, on the other hand, was outscored by 129 points. The Bobcats could have easily had a better record, as they lost four games by a field goal or less. The Bobcats have a big edge on offense. In addition to their experienced coach, they've got an excellent senior QB, working behind a solid offensive line and complemented by a pair of capable backs. They'll be working against a depleted Nevada defense which has a few interim head coaches, after Casteel got fired and which is dealing with multiple suspensions. Ultimately, I believe the Bobcats will put up a big number and I don't expect Nevada to be able to keep up. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati OVER 54.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Cincy OVER the total. While the Bearcats have indeed been profitable for 'under' bettors, the opposite is true of the Eagles. Even with its last two games staying below the total, Boston College has still seen the OVER go 8-4 on the season. Thats what happens when you have a porous defense though. The Eagles give up 31.7 ppg and a whopping 480.3 yards per game. They're even worse defensively when playing away from home, as they allow 33.7 ppg and 510.2 ypg. When facing some weaker defenses earlier in the season, the Bearcats put up big numbers. They scored 52 against Marshall, 38 against Houston, 46 against ECU and 48 vs. UConn. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing BC. While they have trouble stopping the other team, the Eagles can score. They average 30.9 ppg. Note that the OVER is 2-0 in BC neutral site games the past couple of years. Even though the majority of Cincy games did fall below the total, the OVER was 2-1 when they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. Look for those stats to improve as this afternoon's game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -6 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 223 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. Yes, the Bulldogs just got hammered by LSU. However, in case you haven't heard, the Tigers are extremely strong this season. So, there's not much shame in getting blown out by them. After thumping the Bulldogs, LSU went on to smash the Sooners. Yes, the same Sooners who beat Baylor, twice. Georgia still outscores teams by a dominating 33.5 to 12.1 margin. Only Clemson (11.5) allows fewer points per game. Baylor allows 19.3 ppg. While Georgia allows 273.4 ypg, the Bears allow 358.9. While Baylor is 1-4 ATS its last five off a bye, the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. Expect their superior defense to prove the difference, the Bulldogs pulling away for a double-digit victory. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 52 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 220 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Oregon UNDER the total. These are two of the top defenses in the country. Wisconsin ranks 10th with 16.1 points allowed per game. Oregon ranks 8th, allowing just 15.7 ppg. Last time out, the Ducks limited Utah to only 15. In terms of total yards, the Badgers rank 8th, allowing just 293.5 ypg. The Ducks aren't too far behind; they allow 329.6 ypg. The Badgers have seen the UNDER go 10-6 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that span, the Ducks have seen three of five stay below the total, when playing a game with an O/U line in that range. With the Ducks listed as small underdogs, its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-4 the past dozen times that they were getting points. Look for points to prove hard to come by, the UNDER improving to 6-1 the past seven times that Wisonsin was off two or more consecutive ATS wins. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 54 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/Georgia State OVER the total. While the Cowboys enter on an 'under' streak, they're facing a defensively-challenged Georgia State team. On the season, the Panthers allow a whopping 36.1 ppg, second worst in the Sun Belt. Indeed, this will be one of the weakest defenses which Wyoming has faced. The Cowboys will have a big day on offense. However, the Panthers can score themselves. They average 32.4 ppg and aren't going to go down quietly. Note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Panthers were of a conference road loss. This season, the OVER was 3-0 when they were off a road loss overall. Expect the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that Wyoming played with two or more week's of rest in between games. |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 56 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UVA/Florida UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed a bit from its opener. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cavs come in on an 'over' streak, which has helped in terms of line value. They haven't faced a team like this one lately though. In their final three games, the Gators allowed 0, 6 and 17 points, an average of less than eight per game. Those three teams averaged a mere 211 ypg. For the season, the Gators are allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg and 299.6 ypg. The UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that Florida scored 37 or more in its previous game. Note that the UNDER is also 2-0 when the Gators played on a neutral field. After getting crushed by Clemson, the Cavs will be focused on avoiding a similar fate. Expect the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that they were off a bye. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -115 | 486 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I successfully played against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. They were facing a revenge-minded Wisconsin team which had a bigtime back and which was coming in full of confidence. The Buckeyes took the Badgers' best punch but stormed back to still win by 13. To most, Clemson's 62-17 win over Virginia was probably more impressive. However, I'd also backed the Cavs in their previous game, a 39-30 win over archrival V-Tech. The Cavs. not nearly as strong as Wisconsin in the first place, were still celebrating snapping their skid against the Hokies and never really believed they would beat Clemson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I was not more impressed with Clemson's win than I was with Ohio State's win. Really, I believe the closer win and the fact that they were tested will serve the Buckeyes better than Clemson winning in another blowout. Overall, the Buckeyes' schedule was arguably much tougher too, not just that final game. Thats going to serve them well here as they've faced plenty of quality teams while Clemson hasn't really done so. Over the years, Clemson is 30-31 ATS when playing a line with a game in the +3 to -3 range. During the same span, the Buckeyes were 30-16-2 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. During that span, they were also 31-19 ATS when getting points. While I respect the Tigers, I believe the wrong team is favored. Ohio State gets it done. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force UNDER 69 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on AF/WSU UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, the Cougars are a high-scoring team. The Huskies held them to 13 points in the Apple Cup though and I believe that Air Force will also have some success in slowing them down. The Falcons held Wyoming to six points last time out. They've limited three of their past five opponents to 13 or fewer points and none of those five teams scored more than 22. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of times that Air Force played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. The UNDER is also 3-0 when AF was off b2b double-digit conference wins. The Cougs were underdogs three times this season and two of those games stayed below the number. This one will too. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. This line has come down and I feel thats providing excellent value with the favorite. The Aggies have taken on the likes of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. You may recall they very nearly beat both "Tiger" teams, losing by four to Auburn and just two against Clemson. The Cowboys aren't in the same class. Despite taking on some of the best teams in the country, the Aggies still allow an average of just 22.7 ppg. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 27. While there will be a lot of talk about having their running back (Chuba Hubbard) healthy, its important to note that the Cowboys will be without their star safety (Kolby Harvell-Peel). Texas A@M already had the better defense and his absence makes the Cowboys' unit that much weaker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys other starting safety will have to sit for the first half due to targeting in the OU game. It all adds up to a win and cover for the Aggies. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida UNDER 61.5 | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF/Marshall UNDER in the Gasparilla Bowl. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. Seven of those 11 games finished below the total. Working with generously high number and with both defenses in fine form, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Keep in mind that Marshall games averaged 48.9 points this season. The Herd will try and run and keep the clock moving and to keep the UCF offense on the sidelines as much as possible. It won't be easy though as the Knights are playing stingy defense right now. In fact, the Knights allowed a mere seven points in their last game, their fourth straight 'under.' Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times they were off a home win, 9-4 when that win came by 17 or more. While Marshall allowed 27, it has still allowed an average of only 17 points its past four games. Go with the Under. |
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/SDSU OVER the total. The Aztecs were an 'under' team this season which has led to a very low O/U line for Saturday's game, currently the lowest of the bowls, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While SDSU may have played low-scoring games, the Chippewas saw their games average a healthy 58.7 points on the season. The Chippewas personally scored 45 or more in three of their last four and 38 or more in five of their last seven. (They got at least 20 in all seven.) Over the years, the OVER is 2-0 when the Aztecs have been neutral field favorites of seven or fewer points. Also, the Chippewas have seen the OVER go 2-0 over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line of 42 or less. Looking at recent New Mexico Bowl scores and we find the last four have all produced a minimum of 43 points. They had scores of 52-13, 31-28, 23-20 and 45-37. This one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State -7 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH State. While the Golden Flashes went on a nice run to get here, I believe that there's a class difference between these teams. The Aggies arguably underachieved this season but this is there chance to show everyone they're better than what we saw from them in the reg. season. They played in the tougher conference and their more difficult schedule will serve them well here. Despite the more difficult conference, the Aggies scored more points and compiled more yards, while allowing fewer points and fewer yards. Kent State was fortunate in the turnover department but thats not something that can be relied on consistently. With an O/U line in the mid-high 60s, this should be a high-scoring game. That suits the Aggies fine. They're 17-8 ATS their last 25, when the O/U line was set at 63 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 119 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This O/U number fell when it came out and we're now working with a nice low total. While I'm aware these teams have been involved in low-scoring games of late, I believe that it'll prove to be far too low. Navy scored 56 all by itself last time out. That was the second time in four game that the Midshipmen reached that number. They've scored 35 or more in six of their past seven (averaging 39.3 on the season) and could realistically score enough by themselves to send this one OVER the number. They won't need to though; the Knights have been scoring even more points than them lately. In its last three games, Army has scored 63, 47 and 31, while averaging 575 yards of offense in those games. Last time out, the Knights allowed 52 against Hawaii. All things considered, this number is too low. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 148 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I won with the 'under' when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers earlier in the season. It was only 10-0 at halftime before getting a bit dicey in the second half. The Buckeyes won 38-10. That was at Columbus though and now the game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, at Indianapolis. Yet, the Buckeyes opened as even bigger favorites for this one than they closed as for the first game. Thats not giving much respect to the Badgers and its offering us excellent value. Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor had this to say: "Very motivated. I know my team will try to lean on me to make plays. I have to make sure I'm ready this week." With Taylor bouncing back with a much better effort than he had in the first game, look for the Badgers to improve to 3-0 ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 21 or more points. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 101 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/LSU UNDER the total. When these teams met last year, the O/U line was 50 and they combined for 52. We're working with a little higher number here, which I feel is providing excellent value. With all due respect to Alabama, this is the best defense that LSU will have seen. Indeed, the Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the entire nation. They allow 10.4 ppg (#2 in the country) and 257.1 ypg, #4 in the country. Seven of the Bulldogs' eight SEC games stayed below the number. LSU can also be pretty stingy. Just ask the Aggies. Last week, the Tigers held Texas A&M to seven points and a measly 169 total yards. Speaking of that blowout, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 9-3 when off a double-digit conference win and they've got a 4-1 UNDER mark when off b2b double-digit conf. wins. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon, as points prove hard to come by the entire way. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Bears were up 31-10 at halftime in the first meeting and they still couldn't win. Having squandered that opportunity, they won't get another one. Prior to that 34-31 comeback thriller, the Sooners' last win against the Bears came by 33 points. I believe that there's still a talent difference. The earlier meeting and Baylor's big win againt Kansas have helped us by keeping the line in single digits. Remember, the Sooners were a -10.5 point favorite for the first meeting and that was at Baylor. Off an 18-point win at OSU to close out the season, look for the Sooners to get off to a much better start in this one, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and improving to 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the past eight times that they were off a double-digit road win. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 48 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon/Utah UNDER the total. The days of the Pac-12 featuring wide open high-scoring games are largely gone. Remember the Ducks of a few years back? It seemed like they always getting involved in high-scoring games. Times have changed. The Ducks check in off a 24-10 win. They've held four of their last eight opponents to 10 or fewer points. On the season, they're allowing an average of 15.7 ppg. The Utes? They're even stingier. They allow a mere 11.2 ppg. Thats the third best mark in the country behind Clemson (10.1) and Georgia (10.4). The 241.6 yards allowed per game ranks #3, behind Ohio State and Clemson. They've allowed seven or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The UNDER is 8-3 when the Ducks have been underdogs the past 2+ seasons, a 2-0 UNDER mark when they've been underdogs on a neutral field. With points proving hard to come by, expect those stats to improve Friday night. |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina v. NC State +11.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC STATE. Though they didn't win, I like the effort the Wolfpack showed in battling back against G-Tech last game. (They're 7-2 SU/ATS over the years off a road loss of three or less.) Obviously, they're going to be fired up to host their instate rival. With the line having risen to double-digits, I believe we're getting outstanding value. Note that the Tar Heels are only 4-7-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I like the fact that NC State has had a couple of extra days to prepare; their last game came on a Thursday. The Wolfpack won by six at North Carolina last year and they beat the Heels by 12 here the previous year. UNC might find a way to win this year but if they do, its NOT going to be easy. Grab the points. |
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11-29-19 | Washington State v. Washington UNDER 64 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Washington State UNDER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 50 and produced only 43 points. The previous year, these teams combined for 55 points. That O/U line was also 50. Here, however, we're working with an extra couple of touchdowns, as this is a significantly higher O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Huskies' last two games had scores of 19-7 and 20-14. Of course, the Cougars' last couple of games were much higher-scoring. However, the UNDER is 3-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off b2b games where they scored 42 or more points and 4-1 when they were off a game where they both scored and allowed 30 or more. With the UNDER also a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Huskies had failed to cover three of their previous four, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-29-19 | Boise State v. Colorado State +14 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on CSU. This line has risen from its opener and I believe its providing us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Broncos were favored by 6.5 points their last visit here, winning by seven. You may remember that one, the Broncos were undefeated at the time but the Rams gave them a real scare, leading 35-17 at halftime. While the Broncos could be looking ahead to bigger things to come, the Rams will honor 13 seniors before the game, their last of the season. The weather is likely going to be ugly; as of Wednesday that they had 100 workers in their shoveling snow. That may well favor what is going to be a determined home team. Grab the points. |
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 | Top | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 66 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I successfully backed the Hokies when these teams met last Black Friday. The Cavs were -5.5 point favorites but the Hokies won outright by a field goal. This time, its the Hokies who are favored. Once again, I'll be backing the underdog. While I do expect the Cavs to win outright, having an extra field goal to work with, in a game which could well be decided by a field goal or less, is a comforting feeling. Off three straight wins, the Cavs come in full of confidence. Last time out, they hammered Liberty 55-27, a game which saw them rush for a season high 227 yards. It was the most points they scored in a game since 2004. While the Hokies are off b2b blowout wins, both in shutout fashion, its worth noting that they're only 1-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins of 21 or more points. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Expect at least another cover Friday afternoon. |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 58 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Mississippi State / Ole Miss OVER the total. Ole Miss gave up 58 points last game, scoring 37. In their previous game, the Rebels scored 45 points. In their last two games against teams that weren't Alabama, the Bulldogs have scored 54 and 45 points. The last meeting between these teams here produced 59 points but the O/U line was in the mid 60s. We're working with a much lower number here, which is providing excellent value. The Rebels have seen the OVER go 7-1 the past eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. That includes a 2-0 OVER mark when playing on the road with an O/U line in that range. With both teams successfully moving the ball, expect those stats to improve Thursday night. |
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11-23-19 | San Diego State v. Hawaii OVER 48 | Top | 11-14 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU/Hawaii OVER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 53 but produced 61 points. This year's O/U line is even lower, providing additional value; I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. Games here at Hawaii have been extremely high-scoring, to say the least. On the season, the Warriors average 36.2 ppg (507.7 ypg) here while allowing an average of 36.5 ppg and 473.2 ypg. Thats roughly 73 points and 1000 yards of offense per game. The last three games here have had combined scores of 82, 79 and 82. While the Aztecs did allow just seven points last time out, the OVER is 2-1 the past couple of seasons, when they were off a game where they allowed nine or less. Look for plenty of points from both teams in this one, another shootout in Hawaii. |
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11-23-19 | Boise State v. Utah State +9 | Top | 56-21 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. While I respect the Broncos, I expect them to have their hands full here. Last year's game was decided by single-digits and that was at Boise. Now, the Broncos are on the road where they're 0-2 ATS their last two. The Aggies, who average better than 500 yards of offense per game here at home, are off back-to-back wins. The fact that they were both close ones should serve them well here. They're coming in confident they can score the upset. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover tonight and don't be surprised by the outright win. |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State v. Wyoming OVER 50.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/CSU OVER the total. Last season's game produced 55 points but I expect an even higher-scoring game here. The Rams average 33 ppg (while allowing 38.6) on the road. The Cowboys average 33 ppg at home. While three of the Ram's last four games did indeed finish below the total, ALL four of those games still produced at least 54. This one will too. Go with the Over. |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | Top | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing Toledo/Buffalo UNDER the total. These teams saw last year's game stay below the number by double-digits. The Rockets managed a mere eight first downs for the game. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Bulls lost their last game and that typically results in them playing a lower-scoring game next time out. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that they were off a conference loss, 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were off a conference ATS loss. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 22-11, excluding pushes, when the Bulls were off a road loss in MAC play. With Buffalo allowing an average of only 292.8 yards per game, ninth best in the entire country, I expect Toledo to again have trouble moving the ball, the final score again staying below the total. |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
Im playing on NIU. While neither team is exactly stout defensively, the Huskies have the edge in that department. They allow 27.9 ppg (12.3 at home!) and 386.2 (217.3 at home!) yards. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, allows 31.3 ppg and 435.2 ypg. The Eagles got a big win last time out. However, that was at Akron. Now, they're playing their second straight on the road, while taking a considerable step up in class. While we have to go back some time, note that the Eagles are 3-9 ATS the past dozen times they were off a double-digit conference win and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) when off a conference win of 21 or more. The Huskies have been to seven of the last nine MAC title games. They still have a shot to get back but would need to win out and get some help. Either way, in order for them to be bowl eligible, they need to win both this game and the next. They found a way to beat Toledo, eking out a 3-point win. They're 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a win of three or less, 3-1 (SU and ATS) the past four. Speaking of close wins, the Huskies have won the last two between these teams by scores of 26-23 and 30-27. Back home and desperate for a victory, expect them to find a way once again. |
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11-19-19 | Ohio v. Bowling Green OVER 56 | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing the OVER in the Bowling Green/Ohio game. The last time these teams met here, they combined for 78 points, Ohio winning 48-30. A similar score tonight won't surprise. The Falcons are not good defensively. Their last three opponents, not named Akron, have scored 38, 49 and 44 points against them. They allow an average of 34.3 ppg in MAC play, to go along with 465.7 yards. Consider that the Bobcats have scored 34 or more points in four of their last five games. While they won't be able to stop Ohio, playing at home, the Falcons should at least be able to score some points. They've scored 20 or more in each of their last three here, 35 in their most recent. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Falcons were off a loss of six or fewer points, 3-0 the last three. Expect offensive fireworks. |
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11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss UNDER 65.5 | Top | 58-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU/OLE Miss UNDER the total. With LSU's high-scoring game against Alabama fresh in everyone's memories, we're working with a low O/U number here. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that the last two meetings both finished above the total but that was because those O/U lines were lower. Both would have stayed beneath this year's higher number. Prior to the Alabama game, LSU had seen its two previous games finish below the number. Obviously, we all saw that LSU has a big time QB. However, a banged-up offensive line should lead to a somewhat more conservative gameplan. As for the Rebels, they've seen the UNDER go 3-0 their last three overall and 4-1 in their home lined games this season. Last game, they allowed just three points. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times they were listed as home underdogs. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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11-15-19 | Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 42.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fresno State/SDSU OVER the total. I lost my big total on the Aztecs' "over" last week. However, that won't stop me from making the same play here. The Aztecs allowed 17 points to Nevada, UNLV and San Jose State in their last three. They're going to allow more than than against a Fresno team which scores a lot more than either of those three teams. The Bulldogs have scored 56, 31, 41 and 35 their last four games. In other words, the Aztecs are going to need to score a lot more if they want to keep up. Every single Fresno game has produced a minimum of 47 points. Overall, Bulldog games are averaging 66.7 points on the season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in Bulldog conference games. With such a low number, expect those stats to improve Friday night. |
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11-14-19 | Buffalo v. Kent State +6.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Bulls hammered the Golden Flashes, at Buffalo, last season. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Golden Flashes this year. While they've dropped three in a row, the Golden Flashes continue to play hard; they've covered three of four and four of six. Admittedly, the Bulls have looked impressive in beating up some bad teams lately. While they did have last week off but this still marks their second straight on the road, the first time they've played in that situation. Also, note that the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a win of 28 or more. Conversely, the Golden Flashes are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b conf. losses, 3-1 ATS when off three straight conf. losses. While I like the Flashes' chances of an outright win, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-13-19 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-44 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Bowling Green/Miami Ohio OVER the total. When these teams met at Bowling Green last year, the O/U line was 55. They combined for 61. When they met here at Miami, the previous year, the O/U line was 51. They combined for 66. Tonight, thanks to some recent 'unders,' we're working with a lower O/U number. Once again, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Redhawks scored 24 and 23 their last two games. Both were on the road. In their last three home games, they've scored 27, 34 and 48. Thats an average of 36.3 ppg. The Falcons have played at some tough venues, which has led to their road scoring average being very low. However, they scored 35 points last time out. That'll provide confidence and I feel that they'll have more success this evening against a Miami defense which gave up 76 in a game this season. The OVER is 3-0 in Miami Ohio home games, every one of them exceeding tonight's line. Expect those stats to improve. |
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11-09-19 | Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -106 | 109 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nevada/SDSU OVER the total. With all due respect to the Aztec defense, which has admittedly been pretty stingy, I feel that this O/U number, which is among the lowest on the entire board, will prove to be too low. Note that the line has even come down from its already low opener, providing even further value. When these teams met at Nevada, last season, the O/U line was 46.5. Yet, they combined for 52. When these teams met here at SDSU the previous season, the O/U line was 56.5. Yet, they combined for 65. Note that the weather, as per usual in sunny San Diego, is expected to be pretty much perfect for playing football. (5-day forecast for SD calls for a high of 82 on Saturday, a low of 58, mostly sunny with very little wind.) None of the issues that one can encounter at this time of the year in other parts of the country. While the Aztec defense has been good, it hasn't been unbeatable. The Aztecs have allowed at least 17 in each of their last three games. They've allowed 22 or more in each of their past two home games. Nevada, which averages 19.3 ppg, allowed 31 and 36 its last two road games. Opposing teams are averaging 449.5 yards per game when the Wolfpack play on the road. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the OVER improving to 4-1 the past five times that Nevada was off a double-digit conf. win. |
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11-09-19 | Appalachian State v. South Carolina -4 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -108 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I believe that the Gamecocks are catching the Mountaineers at exactly the right time. Prior to last week, Appalachian State had a perfect record, a national ranking and huge dreams. All that changed with an upset loss against Georgia Southern last week. The common line of thinking is that previously undefeated teams tend to immediately bounce back after their first loss. However, I've often found that the opposite is true. Of course, winning this game was never going to be easy for the Mountaineers, regardless of what happened against Georgia Southern. The Gamecocks got their confidence back with a 24-7 win last time out and now they're getting some injured players back. With Texas A&M and Clemson on deck, this is absolutely a must win. Expect them to rise to the occasion, moving to 4-0 ATS as home favorites. |
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11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan OVER 63 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ball State / Western Michigan OVER the total. When these teams met last season, they combined for 83 points. While 13 of those did come in OT, they still combined for 70 in regulation. The teams combined for 897 total yards, the Broncos putting up 548 of them. This should be another very high-scoring affair. Western Michigan scored 49 in its last game. Thats the third time already that the Broncos have scored 48 or more in a game. Ball State allowed 34 last time out, after scoring 52 in its previous game. While the OVER is 7-3 the past 10 times that the Cardinals are off a double-digit conference loss, the Broncos have seen the OVER go 5-1 the last six times that they were off a win of 28 or more points. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score again finishing above the number. |
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11-02-19 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 65 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/UCLA UNDER the total. These teams combined for 50 and 54 points the last two seasons. This evening, we're working with an O/U line in the 60s. I feel that line is generous and that it'll prove to be too high. The Buffaloes have scored just 13 (10 +3) points their last two road games. While the offense has gotten going of late, this is still a UCLA team which has scored 17 or less four different times. As for the high O/U line, note that the UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that Colorado played a game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, a perfect 3-0 to the UNDER when the Buffaloes played a road game with an O/U line in the 63.5 to 70 range. With the UNDER also 5-2 the past seven times that UCLA played a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-02-19 | Ole Miss +18.5 v. Auburn | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. Auburn is obviously the more talented team. Off last week's loss, many will expect the Tigers to bounce back with a blowout win. However, while I respect the Tigers, I believe this will prove to be a far tougher game than is being suggested by the line. Last week's loss at LSU was huge. Note that Auburn is 4-10-1 ATS its last 15, off a loss of three or fewer points. Up next, after a bye, is Georgia, another huge game. With this game sandwiched in between those two huge game and with the Tigers off three straight SEC road games, its going to be difficult for the Tigers to "get up." Four of the Rebels' five losses have come by 11 points or less. They're 3-1 ATS off a loss. While the Tigers are still thinking about what might have been - and whats to come ahead, the Rebels are off a bye and are going to be extremely focused on trying to get themselves a signature win. Look for the Rebels to come ready to play and for them to give their hosts all they can handle the entire way. |
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11-02-19 | Utah v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I respect the Utes, I believe they're going to run into a problem on Saturday afternoon. The last three games in this series have had scores of 10-3, 21-7 and 33-30, all in favor of the Huskies. Washington, 7-1 SU in November the past couple of seasons, is coming off a bye. They've had a full extra week off than the Utes. The Huskies could easily have a better record as they lost by one vs. Cal and by four vs. Oregon. The Utes did win big in their last game on the road. That was at Oregon State though. Prior to that, in their previous road game, they lost at USC. While I'll happily grab the points, I say the Huskies find a way of winning a close one here. |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut +26.5 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Huskies aren't the best team around. However, playing at home on National TV, they're good enough to hang within four touchdowns of Navy. The Midshipmen are just 2-4 ATS as road favorites the past couple of seasons. The Huskies played Houston tough here in their last home game, losing by seven as a 21.5 point underdog. Then, they gained some confidence by beating up on the Minutemen. Look for them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, covering the big number and improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of greater than 14 points. |
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10-26-19 | Utah State +3.5 v. Air Force | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Big game for both teams. In my opinion, its even bigger for the Aggies. I absolutely expect them to be ready. Indeed, unlike other teams and coaches, Coach Anderson prepares for this game all season long. He was quoted as saying: "Camp, spring ball, bye weeks, the day after Christmas. Whenever we find an opportunity to squeeze in a few moments of Air Force, we'll absolutely do it. You have to in my opinion." That gives Utah State over other Air Force opponents, as the Aggies are more prepared for the Falcons' unique attack. I like the fact that Air Force is off a late game at Hawaii last week. Thats a long way to go and something many of these kids aren't familiar with. The Aggies are playing with a lot of confidence. They've only lost twice this season. The first was by three points, at Wake Forest. The second was at LSU. No shame in that. They already responded to the LSU loss by crushing Nevada (36-10) last week. The Aggies have won at San Diego State. So, they know they can win on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 last year after the previous season's game was decided by a field goal. With Air Force just 6-16 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range, in a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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10-26-19 | Duke +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 139 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE. I successfully played against the Blue Devils last week. So, I wasn't surprised to see them lose, at Virginia. However, I like how they match up - and how this game sets up - much better this week. While the Blue Devils got hammered at UVA, the Tar Heels suffered a far tougher loss. They fell 43-41 to the Hokies, at Blacksburg. In case you missed it, that was a wild 6-OT affair, the longest game in ACC history. To end up on the wrong side of it will be very tough to bounce back from. (UNC is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS its last seven off a conference road loss.) Note that Duke also played at Lane Stadium; the Blue Devils crushed the Hokies 45-10. So, they know how to win on the road. Also, note that Duke is already 2-0 off a loss this season, winning 45-13 and 41-23. The Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS their last 10 as road underdogs and they're a perfect 3-0 ATs the past three times that they allowed 42 or more points in their previous game. The Blue Devils have had their way in this series recently. Catching the Heels at right time, expect that to continue Saturday afternoon. |
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10-25-19 | USC v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC/Colorado OVER the total. The Buffalos are a poor defensive team. They've given up at least 30 points in all seven of their games. So, its likely that the Trojans, who scored 41 last time out, will exceed that mark. When playing at home, Colorado has been able to score. So, while the Trojans will score, the Buffalos will trade points with them. They've scored 34, 23 and 30 in their three games here. The OVER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when Colorado was off a 2-game road trip. Going back further finds the OVER at 8-4 when the Buffalos were off b2b road losses. Bottom line: I expect both teams to have success moving the ball and feel that the number is too low. Go OVER. |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Last year, when these teams met at Dallas, the Cougars were ranked #18 in the country. Favored by two touchdowns, they lost outright. Now, we've got a role reversal. This time, its the Mustangs who enter the game with the national ranking while listed as the road favorite. Like last year, I believe that the home underdog has a real shot at the outright win. While every game is now crucial for the Mustangs, while playing on a short week, it might be easy to look past Houston and ahead to Memphis. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Needless to say, the Cougars haven't forgotten last year. While this season has been a disappointment, a win tonight will do a great deal to salvage it. They're going to go all out to get it. I played on the Cougars the last time these teams met here and they rewarded me with a 35-22 win and cover. With the Mustangs just 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-19-19 | Arizona State v. Utah -13 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Utes are the superior team. They're playing at home. They're on a roll. Importantly, they've also got payback on their minds. Not only did the Sun Devils beat Utah 38-20 at ASU last season but they also beat the Utes by a 30-10 score, right here, the previous season. Utah, which was favored by -10 points for that game, hasn't forgotten. The Utes have only lost one game this season. That was at USC. Their other five games have all resulted in victories and ALL have come by more than 17 points. While the Sun Devils are off b2b upset wins, they're 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU victories when listed as underdogs. The Utes are 16-9 ATS their last 25 as favorites. Determined to avenge the recent losses, exepct them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to another convincing win. |
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10-18-19 | UNLV +16.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -112 | 55 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. The Bulldogs got hammered last time out, a 42-24 loss at Air Force. They're 1-2 ATS off a conference loss the past couple of seasons and they haven't won a game by more than 14 points this year. The Rebels bring some positive momentum into this game and they'll be confident. Last time out, playing on the road against an SEC team and listed as 16-point underdogs, they won 34-10. Granted, it was Vanderbilt. Still, that was an impressive win. The Rebels are quietly 10-4 ATS their last 14 as road underdogs. The Rebels won outright, as 3-TD underdogs, the last time that they played here. Grab the points. |
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10-18-19 | Ohio State v. Northwestern UNDER 50 | Top | 52-3 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Northwestern UNDER the total. With the Buckeyes having scored 76 themselves in a game this season, this number may initially appear a little low. However, a closer look reveals that its likely not low enough. Note that the UNDER is already 2-0 when the Buckeyes played a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. While people immediately think of its offense, Ohio State has now quietly allowed 10 points or less in five straight games. Meanwhile, Northwestern has seen all five of its games produce 44 or fewer combined points. Those games had scores of 17-7, 30-14, 31-10, 24-15 and 13-10. Not surprisingly, four of those five games stayed below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-17-19 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 50.5 | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA/Stanford UNDER the total. These teams have been involved in some very high-scoring games the past couple of seasons. After the 2017 game at Stanford finished with 92 points, last year's game at UCLA produced 91. This is an entirely new season though and I don't expect even half that many tonight. The Cardinal are going to run the ball. A lot. With Cameron Scarlett chewing up the clock, the Cardinal average more than 35 mins of possession time per game, among the most in the nation. They did it with defense last time out, holding Washington to a mere 13 points and less than 300 total yards. Pretty good considering that Washington had previously been averaging 45 ppg on the road along with 477 ypg, on the road. The Bruins have already seen the UNDER go 3-1 as underdogs this season, 2-0 as road underdogs of seven or fewer points. Stanford has seen alll three road games finish above the total but all three at home stay below the number. The three games here finished with scores of 17-7, 21-6 and 23-13. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy OVER 55 | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Alamba / Troy OVER the total. Since 2015, this "rivalry" has been known as "The Battle Of The Belt." South Alabama senior Roy Albritton had this to say: "It's probably one of the more 'odd' rivalries in the nation. The away team has always won, and also, no team has kept the belt more than one year. So that’s a big thing we're riding on as well. We know what's ahead of us and we know what we need to do to get it done." As for the total, this is a low number. In fact, Troy could potentially exceed it on its own. The Trojans, who scored 38 at South Alabama last season, have already topped the 40 mark in all three home games. Their most recent game here produced 93 combined points. South Alabama will also contribute though. The Jaguars haven't been blanked this season and you just read about the away team having success in this matchup. The Jags scored 17 each of their last two games and 21, when playing at Nebraska. Look for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the last seven times Troy was off a bye. |
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10-12-19 | Florida v. LSU UNDER 55.5 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida/LSU UNDER the total. The last three meetings have produced 26, 33 and 46 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Gators have seen all six of their games, even a non-lined game, produce 50 or fewer combined points. They've had two outright shutouts and have allowed 21 or less in every game. Last time out, they limited Auburn to 13 points. Auburn had previously been averaging 38 ppg. The (LSU) Tigers also showed they're capable of dominating defensively last time out, as they held Utah State to just six points. Thats pretty good when considering that the Aggies entered that game averaging 38.5 points. Look for this one to again prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-12-19 | UAB v. UTSA +12.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. While I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, I feel that they're laying too many points this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Blazers are on the road. Off last week's big win and facing a team which they hammered last season, I believe that the Blazers will be ripe for a letdown this week. That'll prove costly though. UTSA is off its best game, arguably, in recent memory, a 26-16 win at UTEP. While the Blazers will be without their starting running back, the Roadrunners ran for more than 300 yards last week. The offensive line dominated and true freshman Sincere McCormick put up a program record 189 yards. The Roadrunners deep and experienced defensive line is also off an excellent game. The Roadrunners, who brought back considerably more starters from last year than did the Blazers, haven't forgotten last year's 52-3 shellacking at UAB. They played the Blazers tough here the previous season though, a 24-19 game. Note that UAB is just 10-19-1 ATS the past 30 times it was listed as a road favorite. Hungry for a "signature win," expect the Roadrunners to give their guests all they can handle once again. |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Virginia/Miami UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 29 points when they faced each other last season, a 16-13 Virginia win. I'm expecting another defensive affair this evening. Including last year's game, the Cavs have seen the UNDER go 5-2 in October the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-1 when they're off a bye. As for the Canes, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in October the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-0 when they've been listed as home favorites of seven or less. I think both defenses are better than they showed in their last game. Miami had allowed just 12 points combined its previous two games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-05-19 | Oregon State v. UCLA UNDER 66.5 | Top | 48-31 | Loss | -119 | 98 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon State/UCLA UNDER the total. Its true that the Bruins put up 67 points at Washington State. However, its also true that they've scored 17 or less in all four of their other games. They're likely to exceed 17 against the Beavers but I don't expect them to come anywhere close to the number they put up against the Cougars. Oregon State has allowed 31 or fewer points in three straight games. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 48.5. That was here in 2016. Here, we're working with a considerably higher number. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Bruins played a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. Both this season's games here finished below the number. Even the game against Oklahoma, a very high-scoring team, didn't reach this O/U number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, once again. |
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10-05-19 | Rice v. UAB -9.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 126 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Owls, now 0-5, are off a very tough loss last week. Fighting hard for its first win, Rice took LA Tech to OT last week. The Owls had a 14-7 lead at half. They were up 17-14 with less than two minutes remaining. They even held the lead (20-17) in OT. However, it was LA Tech which ultimately prevailed. While the Owls have battled, those are the type of losses that can be tough to recoved from, especially for a winless team starting to lose hope. I believe they're going to be susceptible to get blown out here. UAB is 3-0 ATS is last three off a conference loss and 7-1 ATS its last eight October games. The Blazers are also 11-3 ATS (14-0 SU!) their last 14 at home, as they have one of the longest home winning streaks around. Though they lost at WKU last week, the Blazers beat South Alabama by a score of 35-3 their last time on this field. The Blazers won 42-0 at Rice last season and 52-21 here the previous season. They're fully capable of bouncing back and blowing out a demoralized Owls team, once again. Expect them to do just that, keeping the streak in tact with another double-digit win. |
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10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 49 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Temple/ECU OVER the total. The Pirates have seen the "under" go 5-0 this season. Those results have helped keep this O/U line a little lower than it could have otherwise been. Note that the last two games in this series had O/U lines of 53.5 last season and 58.5, here at ECU two seasons ago. A closer look reveals that three of the Pirates' five "unders" were within a couple of points of the number. They had a game which finished with 57 when the O/U line was 58.5, a game which finished with 52 when the O/U line was 53 and one which finished with 45 when the O/U line was 47. Really, only one of their games finished with less than 40 and only two with less than 45. The Pirates scored a minor upset of ODU in their last game. Thats worth noting as the OVER is 6-2 their last eight off an ATS win and 3-1 their last four, when off a SU win as an underdog. Temple's lone road game finished above the total with 60 points. With that result, the OVER is 8-5 in Owl road games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finding its way above the relatively low number. |
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09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While both teams lost last week, the Cougars' loss is going to be more difficult to bounce back from. In case you missed it WSU blew a 49-17 lead and went on to lose 67-63, the highest scoring game in Pac-12 history. Coach Leach commented: "Our guys got frantic and panicked. We collapsed in every phase of the game." Off that type of "collapse," I believe its going to difficult to play at this tough venue. The Utes have had an extra day of preparation (Utah played 9/20 while WSU played 9/21.) The Utes have payback on their minds as they lost at WSU last season and as the Cougars beat them here two years ago. The Utes are 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11, as home favorites, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of seven on less. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five off a road loss, 3-0 ATS off a road loss when they were favored. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday. |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +17.5 | Top | 48-7 | Loss | -115 | 129 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. Last week's results have helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog. The Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Miami Ohio while the Huskers barely eked out a win against Illinois. However, Illinois is actually a pretty decent team, at the least, the Illini are much stronger than Miami Ohio. Plus, Nebraska was on the road, while Ohio State was at home. I like the fact that the Huskers rallied to pull it off last week and that they had to fight to do it. While Ohio State has yet to be tested, the Huskers have now been involved in two close ones (both on the road) and that close game experience figures to serve them well. (Both home games have resulted in double-digit wins.) Speaking of close games, you may recall that Ohio State was a 17-point favorite for last year's game. However, it was the Huskers who were up 21-16 at halftime. The Buckeyes managed to escape with a 36-31 win but the cover was never in doubt for Nebraska. Its the first evening game for Ohio State all season; Lincoln can be a tough place to play and the crowd is going to be extremely fired up. Note that its the first ESPN "Gameday" at Lincoln in more than a decade. The Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were off three consecutive covers. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way. |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +3.5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on ASU. Both these teams have been involved in some close ones lately. Cal is off a big emotional/controversial win over an SEC opponent in the Eastern time zone. The Bears hung on to win by eight. However, the game down to the final play. Note that Cal is just 1-3 ATS its last four off a road upset. The Bears previous two games were decided by six (against North Texas) and by just one, at Washington. Even their game against Cal Davis was relatively close, 14-point win. Likewise, ASU is off b2b 3-point games. I see another potentially close one, which makes the points very attractive. The Sun Devils have won at Michigan State. That was in front of more than 70,000 fans and a national TV audience. They're not afraid of the moment. Look for ASU to give its hosts all they can handle once again, improving to 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road underdog. |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 54 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Navy/Memphis OVER the total. When these teams met last season, the O/U line was 67. When they met the previous season, the O/U line was 73. We're working with a much lower number tonight. Yet, a look at the numbers reveals that it could easily be higher. Navy has scored 45 and 42 points, while averaging 499 yards per game. Memphis is averaging 37.3 ppg, on the strength of 490 yards per game. In their last two games, the Tigers have scored 55 and 42 points. Memphis has seen the OVER go 8-1 its last nine Thursday games, 2-0 the past couple of seasons. During that time, Navy also saw both its Thursday games finish above the number. The Tigers have seen the OVER go 10-4 as home favorites the past couple of seasons. That includes a 3-0 OVER mark when listed as a home favorite in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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09-21-19 | UCLA +19 v. Washington State | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins' tough start has led to an extremely generous line, one which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When these teams last met, the Cougars were double-digit favorites but won by only six. I look for this one to also prove close. The Bruins first two games were both decided by 10 points or less. Sure, Oklahoma beat them by more than that. However, I don't put WSU in the class of the Sooners. Keep in mind this is an experienced UCLA team, one chomping at the bit to turn its season around. The Cougars, who won by only seven last time out, have a huge game against Utah on deck. Look for the Bruins to provide a much tougher game than many will be expecting, moving to 3-0 ATS their last three, after trailing by 17 or more points at the end of the first half of their previous game. |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia OVER 57 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND/Georgia OVER the total. While I do respect these defenses, I also feel that the offenses are a little better than many are seeming to believe. The Irish scored 35 points their first game. Then, in their second game, they nearly doubled that, scoring 66. Meanwhile, Georgia has scored 30, 60 and 53. The Irish have seen the OVER go 6-4 their last 10 on the road, 2-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. Yes, the Bulldogs are off a shutout last time out. However, the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off a shutout. Yes, that marked the third straight time that Georgia had allowed 17 or fewer points. However, thats a situation (when the Bulldogs had allowed 17 or less in 3 straight) where the OVER is a perfect 5-0 the past couple of seasons. Look for those stats to improve Saturday evening, as this one proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-21-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 30-36 | Loss | -129 | 142 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys have been living a lie. Their games have come against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. To their credit, they've taken care of business. However, the fact remains that they were double-digit favorites for each of those games, despite two of them coming on the road. Now, however, they're stepping up in class considerably while playing their third road game in the past four weeks. I expect reality to set in. While the Longhorns came up short vs. LSU, they rebounded by crushing Rice last game. They also hammered LA Tech in the first game. The Longhorns have a score to settle, as OSU has had their number of late. Back-to-back 3-point losses in the series have been particularly tough to swallow. This is a highly motivated Texas team, one which is 5-0 ATS its last five, off b2b non-conf. games. Expect them to get some payback, covering the relatively small number and moving to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were a home faovrite of seven or less. |
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09-20-19 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-43 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU/LA Tech OVER the total. When these teams met in 2016, the O/U line was 64.5. The teams combined for 68. Needless to say, we've got all new players tonight; the O/U line is significantly lower. Once again, however, I expect it to prove to be too low. The FIU offense gained some confidence last week, rushing for over 300 yards and scoring 30 points. The defense gave up 42, at Tulane, in its lone road game. Likewise, the LA Tech offense gained some confidence in putting up 35 last week, throwing for more than 300 yards. Likewise, the defense has also had a game where it allowed more than 40. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball in this one, the OVER improving to 8-4 in FIU's last 12 on the road. |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane -3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULANE. The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening, Tulane covering the small number along the way. |
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09-14-19 | Georgia State v. Western Michigan -10 | Top | 10-57 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU. Georgia State is off to a 2-0 start, including the upset of Tennessee, so is likely going to be a popular pick. However, I feel that the Broncos are favored for good reason and I expect them to bring the Panthers back down to earth. These same teams met at Georgia State last season. Despite playing on the road, the Broncos literally ran all over the Panthers, clearly outclassing them. For the game, they had a 294-58 edge in yards on the ground. They dominated in first downs and time of possession, en route to a decisive 34-15 win. While the win over the Vols was indeed impressive, giving up 42 points against Furman last week wasn't. With the Panthers just 1-8 SU/ATS the past nine times that they allowed 37 or more in their previous game, I'm laying the points and expecting another double-digit win for the Broncos. |
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09-14-19 | Buffalo v. Liberty OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Liberty OVER the total. After struggling in the opener, the Liberty offense made some strides last week. I expect the Flames to break through with a much better offensive performance this week. They're back home and the Bulls are a team they'll be able to move the ball against. The Liberty offense has been pretty explosive the past couple of seasons under now senior QB Buckshot Calvert. Keep in mind that coach Hugh Freeze had a reputation as an offensive genius. The Liberty defense is far from dominant, however, and Buffalo will also be able to move the ball. Remember, this team gave up 777 yards in a game to UMass last season. Look for the OVER to improve to 7-1 the past eight times that Buffalo was a favorite in the -3.5 to -10 point range. |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston OVER 73 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington State/Houston OVER the total. While the O/U line may look high, it could easily be much higher. Washington State has scored 58 and 59 points so far this season. Houston, meanwhile, has scored 31 and 37 points, also giving up 49 in its lone game against a quality opponent. In fact, even Prairie View scored 17 against Houston. Note that the OVER is 8-5 the past couple of seasons when WSU was off a home win. Expect both Cougar teams to put up a big number, leading to the final combined score finishing above the total. |
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09-07-19 | Stanford v. USC -1 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 81 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC (10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR). As you may have heard, the Trojans lost their QB (Daniels) for the season last week. That means true freshman Kedon Slovis gets the call. The good news for Slovis is that he got some action last week, completing six of eight passes and that he's now had a full week to prepare, knowing that he'll be getting the start. While many are writing off USC with him behind center, new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell had this to say of Slovis: "I think, talent-wise, he's as good as I've ever seen..." Meanwhile, Stanford's QB (K.J. Costello) took a hard hit to the head last week and remains questionable, as of this writing. Thats a big blow, if he can't go, or isn't 100% healthy, as he led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency last season. Regardless of who is behind center for the Cardinal, they'll be without the services of all-conference left tackle Walter Little. Another huge blow. Losses to starters are particularly significant for the Cardinal as they didn't return many starters from last season in the first place. The home team has had its way in this rivalry of late. The Cardinal won at Stanford last year, the Trojans get some payback at home this year. |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington OVER 42.5 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cal/Washington OVER the total. This is an extremely low O/U number. While I do respect both defenses, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. True, last season's game at Berkeley was low-scoring. However, the previous two meetings produced 138 combined points. While the Huskies have seen more 'unders' than 'overs' overall the past couple of seasons, its the OVER which is 2-0 when they've been listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Also, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past nine times that Washington played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. Expect the Huskies, playing with revenge from last year's game, to put up a relatively big number, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Meanwhile, the Bears Will chip in enough to send the final combined score above the low number. |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/Boise UNDER the total. Both teams saw their opening game finish above the total which has led to a generously high number Friday night. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Marshall's QB Isaiah Green looked good last week against inferior opposition but he's going to be facing a lot of pressure in this one; Boise recorded four sacks in last week's win over Florida State. Don't expect the Broncos to give Green much time. On the other side, look for a very heavy dose of running back Robert Mahone when the Broncos have the ball. The frequent run plays will help keep the clock moving. The Broncos have seen the UNDER go 10-4 at home the past couple of seasons. That includes a 4-1 UNDER mark when listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND/Louisville OVER the total. The OVER is 9-4 the past 13 times that the Irish played a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range, 4-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in that range. During that span, Louisville has seen the OVER go 9-2 when listed as an underdog, 4-1 when a home underdog. The Cardinals do return a lot of starters on defense. However, thats not as hopeful as it sounds as their defense wasn't very good last year. Indeed, they ranked in the bottom 5 of the country at stopping the run. They'll have serious trouble slowing down an Irish team determined to start the season with a blowout win. While the Irish will put up a healthy number, the Cardinals will also be able to score enough to send the final combined score above the relatively low number. Â |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22 | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. While everyone knows that the Sooners no longer have Murray as their QB, the cupboard is far from bare. The Sooners still have their offensive system in place and their offense is going to be just fine. Hurts takes over and he's got weapons at his disposal. Keep in mind that Oklahoma has averaged more than 45 ppg since 2015, leading the nation in most offensive categories during that span. On the other side of the ball, the Sooners brought back plenty of starters on defense. Speaking of defense, Houston is a team which doesn't play much of it. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 21.5 to 28 point range. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS its last 10, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. I'm expecting the Sooners to win in a blowout. |
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08-31-19 | New Mexico State v. Washington State -32 | Top | 7-58 | Win | 100 | 948 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on WSU. At first glance, this line may appear a little higher. However, the reality is that it could be even higher, as this is an absolute mismatch. The poor Aggies, who will also have to play road games at Alabama and Ole Miss, know it. Coach Martin had this to say about the Aggies extremely tough schedule: "Football pays the bills. We're getting quite a bit of money to play Alabama and Ole Miss and Washington State. We understand that football has that priority ... This is one of the only years we'll ever play three power conference games. We'd like to stay away from that and limit that to two. It makes it more realistic for us. This is one of those challenging years and we’re going to accept it." Indeed. The Cougars have advantages all over their field. True, they lost last year's QB. However, the offense returned just about everyone else. The receiving corps is stacked, the offensive line is great. The offense will again be potent. The defense's weakness last year was against the run. However, they're going to be winning so much here that the Aggies are going to need to attempt to throw. It won't be pretty. The Cougars are out to prove last year wasn't a fluke. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, starting the season with a "statement blowout win." |
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08-31-19 | Syracuse v. Liberty +17.5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -106 | 803 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on LIBERTY. This is a dangerous game for Syracuse. Hugh Freeze takes over for the Flames. While he did have some past recruiting violation issues, Freeze also brings a winning attitude and a history of success. Freeze was 39-25 at Ole Miss with a couple of bowl wins. Prior to that, he was 10-2 at Arkansas State. Freeze inherited plenty of offensive talent. The Flames averaged better than 33 ppg last season and they return their top passer, top rusher and top receiver. QB Calvert threw for more than 3000 yards in 12 games, finding the end zone 22 times. While last year's defense was admittedly pretty soft, Freeze's team does bring back five of its top six tacklers. The Orange, who lose QB Dungey who had a lot of heart and more than 9000 career passing yards, will score some points, probably quite a few of them. However, I expect the Flames to be able to keep up. The Orange gave up some big plays last year and they've got a lot of new faces on defense. Syrcause coach Babers acknowledged as much: "The first game that we have is a quality opponent with an outstanding head coach that’s known for his offensive genius. It's going to be a difficult game for us, especially since we don’t have any tape of him with that personnel." Regardless of what Babers may say to his team, with Maryland on deck next week, followed by a huge game vs Clemson after that, the Orange could easily overlook the Flames. In a game which I feel will be a lot closer than most will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis UNDER 65.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ole Miss/Memphis UNDER the total. These were two of the top offenses in the country last season. Naturally, as a result, we're working with a fairly generous O/U number. However, keep in mind that both these teams, particularly the Rebels, returned considerably more defensive starters than they did offensive ones. While the Tigers have indeed played more overs than unders overall the past couple of seasons, that hasn't been the case when they've been home favorites of this size. In fact, the UNDER is 2-0 the past two seasons when Memphis was a home favorite of a touchdown or less. While the 'over' has been profitable overall for Ole Miss the past couple of seasons, that hasn't been the case when the Rebels have been underdogs, the UNDER cashing seven of 12. Look for the UNDER to improve to 11-3 the past 14 times that Ole Miss played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. |
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08-30-19 | Tulsa v. Michigan State -22.5 | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Determined to make a statement, I see the Spartans keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Tulsa's inexperienced offensive line is going to lead to trouble against the superior Spartan defenders all evening long. That will lead to problems for both the Tulsa throwing and running game. While Tulsa has a couple of decent backs, the Spartans are dominant against the rush. The Spartans struggled offensively last season and this is an opportunity to show that this year will be different. Tulsa allowed an average of 34.5 ppg on the road last season. Expect a blowout. |
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08-30-19 | Wisconsin v. South Florida OVER 57 | Top | 49-0 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on USF/Wisconsin OVER the total. The Bulls brought back plenty of offensive starters from a team which averaged 28.5 ppg and 438 yards per game. Defense was another matter. The Bulls fell apart in the second half and the collapse was thanks to the porous defense. They're going to have serious problems with stopping the Badger ground attack. The OVER has been money when the Badgers were road favorites in this range and is also 9-2 in Wisconsin's last 11 road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63 points. With both teams moving the ball effectively, expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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08-29-19 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson UNDER 61 | Top | 14-52 | Loss | -113 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/GT UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Clemson's most recent time on the field. The Tigers scored 44 against an extremely good defense (Alabama) in that one. So, I certainly have respect for their offense. They're pretty talented defensively too though and they're going to be out to - and able to - prove that on Thursday. In this one, the Tigers will eventually build a comfortable lead. At that point, they should be happy to slow things down and help their young defense build some confidence by running the ball and putting it on cruise control. Note that the UNDER is 12-6 in Clemson's conference games the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 9-4 when they were listed as home favorites. The last time that G-Tech visited here, the score was 24-10. That one stayed below the total by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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08-29-19 | UCLA v. Cincinnati -155 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. (ML) You may recall that Cincy upset UCLA last season. That'll probably make the Bruins a popular pick for this one. However, I see Cincy, which hasn't lost a home opener for nearly 20 years, finishing on top once again. The Bearcats would go on to have an outstanding season last year (11-2 incl. Military Bowl win) and that has given them confidence and big aspirations for this season. While the Bruins are 1-8 SU their last nine as road underdogs, the Bearcats are 8-1 SU their last nine as home favorites. Look for them to find a way, improving to 12-2 SU their last 14 as favorites overall. |
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08-24-19 | Florida -7 v. Miami-FL | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. While these rivals haven't met since 2013, I expect the Gators to have a significant advantage in the season opener at Orlando. The Hurricanes would love to get their 'new era' off to a winning start and beating Florida would sure be a great way to do it. Thats asking an awful lot though. Consider that Miami has a new coach, a new offensive coordinator and a ton of new players. The Gators, on the other hand, are off a 10-win season under Dan Mullen. The Gators are looking to build off that and have the pieces in place to do so. They know if they can beat Georgia, that the sky's the limit for them. It all starts here, however. Speaking of Mullen, don't forget that he was passed over for the Miami coaching job. Twice, in fact. Whatever he may say, winning big is going to feel extra special. Expect the Gators, 6-2 ATS their last eight non-conf games, to win by double-digits. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama -6 v. Clemson | Top | 16-44 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the Tide. Obviously, these are both excellent teams, extremely well-coached, strong on both sides of the ball. I think Alabama is just a bit stronger though. The Tide got their wake-up call vs. the Sooners and thats going to serve them well here. They know they need to be better and they will be. The Tide are 3-0 ATS the past three times that they both scored and allowed 30 or more points in their previous game. During that span, they're also 5-1 ATS when off of two or more consecutive ATS losses. Like last year, expect them to pull away for another win and cover. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson OVER 59 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 150 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/Alabama OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the OVER. Prior to last season's 30-point affair, the games the two previous years had produced 85 and 66 combined points, respectively. Yet, despite both teams coming off an 'under' last week and despite last season's 'defensive battle,' this is the highest O/U line of any of the four meetings. There's a good reason for that. While the defenses remain stout, these offenses are both extremely capable of putting up big numbers. The Tigers average 44.3 ppg. The Tide average 47.7. Speaking of the O/U line being the highest of any of the Clemson games; the Tide have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 this season, when playing a game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect some offensive fireworks. |
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01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas/Georgia UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that Georgia was involved in a few high-scoring games to close out the season. However, the opposite was true of Texas. The Longhorns enter this game off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. In fact, all three stayed below the number by double-digits. Even with one of those opponents being Oklahoma, those three games averaged 47 combined points. The UNDER is now 25-13 in all Texas games the past few seasons, 10-4 when the Longhorns were listed as underdogs. Obviously, the Bulldogs are an elite team with a talented offense and QB. They're still primarily a running based attack though, which leads to them running fewer plays per game than the majority of the opponents that Texas is used to facing. (Georgia ranks 101st nationally with 67.9 plays per game.) On the other side, the Longhorns know that they need to get their own ground game going to help churn up the clock and keep the Bulldogs on the sideline. Sure, Georgia will be without star defensive back Deandre Baker. However, this is still the best secondary that Texas will have gone up against. The last two Sugar Bowls produced an average of just 42 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State UNDER 75 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 213 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Missouri and Oklahoma State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The mere mention of these teams has many immediately thinking shootout. I'm not one of them. Sure, we'll see some points but ultimately I believe that the O/U number will prove to be too high. The Missouri defense comes in full of confidence. The Tigers allowed ZERO points in their last game, a 38-0 win. They allowed 28 or fewer points in their final five games, 17 or less in four of those. Overall, they allowed an average of less than 16 ppg in those five. The Cowboys returned seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and were projected to have their best defense since 2013. Of course, when playing against the likes of Oklahoma and WVU, you're going to give up some points. The Cowboys' last game came against TCU; that one produced 'only' 55 combined points. Note that the Cowboys offense, which returned five starters from last year's team, will be without Justice Hill, a very key loss. Mike Gundy tends to get the most from his defense in the bowls. The Cowboys' last five bowl games have produced 72, 52, 68, 46 and 51 combined points. In the last two of those, the Cowboy defense allowed just eight and 21 points. With the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Cowboys were listed as neutral field underdogs, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame +14 v. Clemson | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -124 | 173 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* GAME OF YEAR). Having successfully played against the Irish in the past, I'm well aware that they haven't always come through when forced to step up and take on elite teams in bowl games. That said, I believe that this year's team is different. While I absolutely respect the Tigers, also a great team, I believe that the Irish can (and will) absolutely compete the entire way. This is a team without a weakness. They brought back a ton of experience from the team which rallied to beat LSU on New Year's Day last year. That was the first New Year's Day win for the Irish since 1994. Having achieved that goal, this team is hungry for more. They've won with defense. They've won with offense. They've won in blowouts and they've shown an ability to win close games. Speaking of close games, you may recall these teams playing a few years ago, at Death Valley. The Tigers had to hang on to win by only two points. While Clemson was already really good, this year's Notre Dame is arguably better than that one. The Tigers have been able to dominate on the ground against weak rush defenses. However, thre teams ranked in the top 30 against the run were able to slow down Clemson. I expect the Irish, who have the best defense that the Tigers will have seen, to have success against the Tiger run game, forcing them to the air. Don't be surprised when this one isn't decided until the final play, the "luck of the Irish," shining on Notre Dame. Â |
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12-27-18 | Duke v. Temple -3 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Owls come in confident. They won six of their final seven, including a double-digit win at Houston, the lone loss came against UCF. They won their last two games by a combined score of 84-24. Sure, they're going through a coaching change but unlike the last time when it happened a couple of years ago, they're much better prepared - all the assistants stayed on this time. After coming up short in (interim coach) Ed Foley's first chance at a bowl, two years ago, they're going to be hungry to get this one. Duke, meanwhile, lost its last two games by a combined score of 94-13. The Owls have plenty of stats working in their favor, as they've been money at the betting window in recent seasons. One that stands out is their perfect 7-0 ATS record, when coming off an ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Expect the Owls to improve on those stats Thurs. afternoon. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo -1 v. Troy | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* ANNIHILATOR). I successfully played against the Bulls in their last regular season game. That 1-point loss has caused everyone to jump off the bandwagon. The Bulls opened as a 3-point favorite but that quickly came down. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. The Bulls have still had an excellent season and they're going to come in hungry; they're 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a game where they didn't cover. To me, Troy's double-digit loss to Appalachian State in its last game is more concerning than Buffalo's loss against NIU. The Bulls can put up plenty of points and are never out of a game. As Troy's coach Neal Brown noted: "They’re as good an offense as we’ve faced all year. It starts with the quarterback." (Jackson had 27 TD passed vs. just 11 Ints, throwing for nearly 3000 yards.) With 10 wins, these Bulls have already made history. They're not done yet - expect them to bring home the first bowl win in school history. |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida UNDER 51.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/USF UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Marshall hasn't scored more than 30 points since managing 31 back in October. The Herd can play quality defense though, as they held three of their last six opponents to fewer than 14 points. Off a blowout loss against V-Tech in a makeup game, I expect the Herd to show us that quality defense tonight. Note that the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that they had allowed 37 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-7 when the Herd were off a road loss of 21 or more points. 24-11 when off a loss of 17 or more overall. In other words, off the type of effort they gave vs. V-Tech, the Herd historically bounce back with a much better defensive effort. Facing a USF team which managed only 10 points last time and which has now scored 23 or less in four straight, 17 or less in three of those, will help. The UNDER is 15-4 over the years, when the Bulls find themselves having lost five, or six, of their previous seven. With the UNDER also at 8-2 the last 10 times that the Bulls were off three or more consec. conference losses, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State +3 | Top | 27-0 | Loss | -119 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* VIOLATOR). After stumbling down the stretch, I believe we're going to see an extremely motivated Aztec team on Wednesday, one which tends to thrive in the underdog role. Note that the Aztecs are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were getting points. I believe that the Aztec defense is better than it showed down the stretch. They're strong against the run, which will serve them well against the Ohio ground attack. Note that they're 26-14 ATS over the years, after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of the previous game. While I respect the Bobcats, I feel that their schedule was pretty soft. Note that they're just 3-8 ATS over the year, after b2b victories of 21 or more points. I expect Rocky Long to do a great job of ensureing that losing down the stretch makes for an extremely motivated SDSU team, one that comes away with AT LEAST the Frisco Bowl cover. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +9 v. Utah State | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 238 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on NW/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). With all due respect to the NW defense, this line is too low. The Buckeyes scored 62 points against a "stingy" Michigan team last time out. Their previous game, they dropped 52 on Maryland. Both games produced more than 100 combined points. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times that OSU was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. |
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12-01-18 | Georgia +13 v. Alabama | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA (10* CONF. CHAMP. GAME OF YEAR). As per usual, Alabama had a dominant season. The Tide finished at 12-0. The Bulldogs weren't far off, however, as they finished at 11-1. With this game being played at Atlanta and the Dawgs getting double-digits at the betting window, I believe that we're getting outstanding value. True, Alabama hammered LSU, the team which handed Georgia its lone loss. However, Sometimes a loss can actually help a team. Since the loss to the Tigers, Georgia has emphasized its power-running game, averaging over 300 rushing yards over its past five games. Thats the one spot (run defense) that the Tide may be a little vulnerable, too. (Over the past two weeks, Alabama has allowed more than 400 rushing yards.) Don't be surprised when the Bulldogs shock the world. |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 77 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on NIU (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bulls have had an excellent season and are clearly an improved team. Improvement was expected, as they brought back 14 returning starters. While 10 wins may not have been expected, their schedule was considerably softer than the one that NIU played. I'm not convinced that they're the real deal. Mixed in with Buffalo's 10 wins were two blowout losses, which I believe are revealing. Army and Ohio were able to beat them by 29 and 35. We're not talking Alabama and Clemson - Army and Ohio. Army couldn't even beat teams like Lafayette and Colgate by nearly that many. Likewise, for Ohio. Favored by more than 4 TD's, the Bobcats only beat Howard by eight. Yet, those teams destroyed Buffalo. On the other side, I don't think the Huskies, who faced the likes of Utah, Iowa and Florida State, are getting enough respect. This is a team with playmakers all over the field. I'll gladly take the points but I expect the Huskies to rise to the occasion and win this one outright. |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC OVER 54 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND/USC OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). As you know, this is a huge game.Notre Dame, facing its biggest rival, finishes undefeated with a victory. However, as Brian Kelley noted: "Playing there is never easy..." I feel that the O/U line is going to prove to be too low. The Trojans have scored a minimum of 27 points in five of their last six games; they're average 32.4 ppg at home. Notre Dame, meanwhile, averages a whopping 44 ppg and an impressive 513 ypg, when playing on the road. Last year's game produced 63 points. The year before, the last time that ND played here, the teams combined for 72. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-2 the last 10 times the the Irish were laying points on the road. |
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