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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-15 | Texas Tech v. Arkansas -9 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 56 m | Show |
I am playing on ARKANSAS (vs. Texas Tech) as my 10* Personal Favorite play on Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | Colorado v. Colorado State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 146 h 56 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs. Colorado) as my 10* Rivalry Best of Best play on Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | Temple v. UMass +11.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 142 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on UMASS (vs. Temple) as my Early Best Bet on Saturday. At first this game may look like a no brainer with Temple starting the season with two wins and covered spreads while UMass got smoked in its season opener. But I believe oddsmakers have made a mistake in giving the Minutemen so many points at home here and I am looking to take advantage. The Owls had the benefit of being slated as nearly touchdown underdogs in their first two games but now I think oddsmakers are going the other way by overvaluing them. A big red flag that stands out for me with Temple is that the Owls lost the yardage battle by 261 yards last week in a 34-26 win over Cincinnati. That suggests they were outplayed but still managed the win. Temple was especially outplayed with the passing game last week where they lost that battle by a staggering 346 yards. That's where I feel UMass can really take advantage with senior QB Blake Frohnapfel, who threw for a respectable 225 yards last week and one TD against one INT and UMass actually won the yardage game through the air against Colorado by 82 yards. I'm not sure the Minutemen will win this one, but I think they keep it close with their passing game with home field advantage and I am happily taking the mountain of points. |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE (vs Oregon) as my 10* Main Event. Michigan State returns 14 starters from a solid team last year and I think Sparty will get revenge at home following a 46-27 loss to the Ducks last season. I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE as my 10* Main Event Saturday. |
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09-12-15 | Rice v. Texas -15.5 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 3 m | Show |
At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on TEXAS (vs Rice) as my 10* Personal Favorite. After Texas got hammered 38-3 by Notre Dame on Saturday, I think we are seeing a much more favorable line this week against Rice than we would have if Texas had kept that one close. I believe it's a good time to jump on the Longhorns because they are not wasting any time in making changes to improve. I’m playing on TEXAS as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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09-12-15 | Marshall v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 ET Saturday, I’m playing on OHIO U. (vs Marshall) as my 10* Best Bet. I was surprised to see Ohio open as an underdog for this game and then more surprised to see bettors fading the Bobcats through the week with their action at sports books. I'll be fading the early public action on this one in a game where I feel Ohio is the better team and playing on home turf, so I'll happily take the points. I’m playing on OHIO U. as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +11 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -106 | 237 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 ET Monday, I’m playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs. Ohio State) as my 10* Main Event. Virginia Tech is once again standing in the way of the Ohio State Buckeyes, having dealt the defending national champs their only blemish in 2014. The Hokies, who were 10-point underdogs when they won 35-21 last fall, are now two-touchdown pups in what many are calling a revenge game for the Buckeyes. That group think has inflated this spread and will likely continue to do so as the weekend progresses, opening up serious value with Virginia Tech. While some are counting on Urban Meyer to erase last year’s loss, we see that stunner as giving the Hokies a massive boost in confidence, having beaten the national champ and holding a physiological edge in the rematch. Frank Beamer always has his defense drum tight, with eight of his 16 returning starters coming back for a stop unit that allowed just over 20 points on 343.8 yards per game. Ohio State enters this game with some turmoil, having lost WR Noah Brown for the season to injury and playing without suspended WR Corey Smith and RBs Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson. The Buckeyes are loaded – let’s not get that wrong – but they could be treading down the path of Florida State, which busted bankrolls week after week as the defending national champs, unable to meet the oddsmakers’ lofty expectations. I’m playing on Virginia Tech as my 10* Main Event Monday. |
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09-06-15 | Purdue v. Marshall -7 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:00 ET Sunday, I’m playing on MARSHALL (vs. Purdue) as my 10* Roast. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 189 h 43 m | Show |
I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month. |
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09-05-15 | Penn State v. Temple +7 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 184 h 14 m | Show |
I am playing on TEMPLE. Last year’s 30-13 game was much closer than the score indicated and I think this year Temple gives Penn State a scare and keeps this game very close. The Owls return most of their starters from a team last year that made huge strides and kept things to a score of 6-3 at the half at Beaver Stadium. The Owls finished the season with a .500 record and they made for a respectable bet down the final stretch of the season at 3-2 against the spread. Temple needs to find a way to stall Penn State’s rushing game, which racked up over 250 yards in last year’s meeting and I think we’ll see that happen with all 11 starters returning from what was a top 20 defense last season. The Owls also return seven players on the offensive line with starting experience, so I expect to see a much better passing game from quarterback P.J. Walker this season. I think Penn State will be a little surprised in this matchup and I like the home side getting the points here. 10* Afternoon Best Bet |
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09-04-15 | Colorado -7 v. Hawaii | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO. This marks my first 10-star play of the college football season and I think the Buffaloes get the job done against an inferior Hawaii team. The Buffaloes have had a bit of a rough go since moving to the Pac-12 in 2011 but I think they will jump out to great start to the season, thanks mostly to the offense. Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau returns (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions in 2014) along with his favorite receiver Nelson Spruce, who finished tops in the Pac-12 in receptions last year. I also feel the run game should be stronger this year after a bit of a disappointing season last year. Jim Leavitt is the new D coordinator and that should help a defense that pretty much can't get worse than 2014. It will help starting against a Mountain West opponent that many are predicting to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference this season. Hawaii also failed to cover the spread in its final 10 games last year (0-8-1 ATS) and I don't even think home field can help the Warriors here. 10* Friday Feast |
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01-02-15 | UCLA -1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 88 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Bowl Game of the year Friday. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 49-34 | Loss | -100 | 462 h 23 m | Show |
I am playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said if his team could pick its bowl prior to the season, the Orange Bowl would’ve been their No. 1 choice and I think we’re going to see the best effort of the season from Mississippi State in Miami. |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss +3 v. TCU | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -100 | 455 h 16 m | Show |
I am playing on OLE MISS. I know a lot of folks are paying attention to the fireworks offense of TCU but there are a lot of reasons I like the Rebels in this one. |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +8 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 435 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I like the Irish here largely because they’ve decided to change up their game plan, a much needed move after they lost their last four games to close out the regular season. Coach Brian Kelly announced he’ll be playing both Everett Golson and Malik Zaire at QB in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Golson was the starter for all 12 games this year and is no doubt a talented QB, but he became a turnover machine and coughed the ball up 22 times season including eight lost fumbles. That’s just way too often to be handing the ball over to the opposition and many of those decisions came from poor decision making with Golson trying to manufacture too much under pressure or on broken plays. Zaire brings an added rushing threat and that’s good because the Irish will need to find ways to keep an LSU defense guessing. LSU ranks eighth this season in total defense. The Tigers don’t, however, have a fabulous offense and that’s another big reason I think Notre Dame can keep this one close. The Tigers rely almost completely on running the football and own the 114th ranked passing attack in the nation. Notre Dame doesn’t have the best defense in the country but if it can focus on one dimension, the Irish can load the box and slow LSU enough to cover the spread. The Domers possess an opportunistic secondary and they picked off 16 passes this year and may be able to get a couple more if LSU starts forcing throws. I don’t expect this one to be the prettiest of bowl games and in those cases I tend to really like the underdog and that’s no different here, especially with the number of points Notre Dame is getting. 10* Music City Bowl Best Bet |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 368 h 60 m | Show |
I am playing on NEBRASKA. I think the Cornhuskers are getting a few extra points here because their coach, Bo Pelini, was fired at the end of the year. But I see two pretty evenly matched squads here and I think that storyline is a little overvalued so I’m taking the points. Nebraska will turn to Barney Cotton in the interim to coach the team before Mike Riley takes over after leaving Oregon State to take the job. Cotton has been coaching with the team for eight years and was previously an offensive lineman there and I think he’ll have this team inspired to beat USC. It wasn’t a graceful split between Pelini and Nebraska and several players spoke out in support of their coach on social media. I believe they’ll be determined to finish the year with a win as Pelini’s team. The Huskers have a versatile QB in Tommy Armstrong Jr., whom I feel will give USC fits. The Trojans suffered their worst loss of the season against UCLA’s Brett Hundley, a dual-threat QB who threw for three TDs and rushed for another against USC. Armstrong passed for 2,314 yards and 19 touchdowns this year and rushed for 664 yards and five more TDs and led Nebraska to being the No. 13 scoring offense in the nation this year. USC can score too but what I like that the strength of the USC offense - it’s passing game - will go up against the strength of Nebraska’s defense. USC has the 15th best passing attack in the nation but Nebraska owns the third-best passing efficiency defense in the country. I believe oddsmakers have set this one too high and it’s definitely possible that the Huskers could win this game in their third trip to the Holiday Bowl since 2009. 10* Saturday Main Event |
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12-27-14 | Duke v. Arizona State -7 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -115 | 231 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Sun Devils own the higher scoring offense, they have a much shorter trip to the Sun Bowl, they play in the better conference and they’ll have the best playmaker on the field for this game. |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +2 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 358 h 45 m | Show |
I am going with the better quarterback in this game and in this case it also happens to be one of the best in the nation in Jacoby Brissett for the Wolfpack. Brissett is one of three quarterbacks in the nation with 20 or more passing touchdowns, 300 or more rushing yards and five interceptions or fewer. The junior also ran for three touchdowns and I think his dual threat ability will keep this UCF defense on its heels. The Pack finished the season with three wins over their final four games and they lined bettors' pockets with four covers over their last five games. They allowed just 20 points combined in their final two games, both wins, and won the yardage battles in both those games by over 200 yards. For UCF, this bowl game isn't just a step down from the Fiesta Bowl it played in and won last year, it's a whole flight of stairs down, and you have to wonder a little about the motivational factor. I can't help but think the Knights already reached the apex of their season when they beat ECU on a now infamous last-second Hail Mary to claim a share of the AAC title. NC State has shown flashes of brilliance this year – like owning a 24-7 lead over Florida State before ultimately losing that game – and I think we’ll see more of that Wolfpack team the day after Christmas in the Bitcoin St. Pete’s Bowl. 10* Best Bet |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -125 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. All the Seminoles ever seem to do is win and their winning streak is now at a legendary 28 games. I believe their streak will continue on Saturday in the ACC Championship game and they’ll grab the money at the betting window to go along with it. |
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12-06-14 | Temple v. Tulane +4 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 124 h 32 m | Show |
I am playing on TULANE. At first it may appear like Tulane doesn’t have much to play for, but this will be Senior Day for the Green Wave and all signs are pointing to a strong effort. |
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12-06-14 | Iowa State +33 v. TCU | Top | 3-55 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 10 m | Show |
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12-04-14 | Central Florida v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 32-30 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 45 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have the benefit of playing on home field on Senior Night for this nationally televised contest on ESPN and I think the crowd will help ECU maintain its perfect record on home soil this season. |
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11-29-14 | Auburn v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 44-55 | Win | 100 | 101 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on ALABAMA. If I were to run down all the impressive numbers the Crimson Tide possess, you’d have to clear your evening schedule, pull up a couch and get comfortable. |
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11-29-14 | Florida v. Florida State -7 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE |
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11-28-14 | Stanford +5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal have had UCLA’s number recently with wins in the last six meetings while they covered the spread in five of those. |
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11-22-14 | USC v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins control their own destiny in winning their first conference championship since 1998 and I believe they’ll get the win and cover at home against USC on Saturday. |
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11-22-14 | Oklahoma State +27 v. Baylor | Top | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 122 h 8 m | Show |
OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this spread way too much for a Baylor team that’s trendy to cheer for right now against an Oklahoma State team that many are loving to criticize right now. While the Cowboys have been underdogs this season, they haven’t been underdogs of within two touchdowns of this week’s number and I feel they’re going to give Baylor an effort that may surprise some. What I like is that there is no panic in the Cowboys, which is essential because head coach Mike Gundy knows many of his team’s offensive challenges come from a young offensive line that will take time to develop. “I’m not sure anger and frustration is a positive resource for improvement,” a calm Gundy told reporters after his team’s fourth straight loss last week. Gundy has managed to keep the focus on him this week also, which has turned some attention away from his struggling units on the field. Oklahoma State legend Boone Pickens said this week that he cheers for the Cowboys and “I don’t care who coaches ‘em”. That has everyone in Stillwater talking about an inferred snub of their coach and it means his players aren’t reading about how bad they are in every local news story. Gundy has been a master in the past of getting his players to pull for him and I believe that’s what will happen on Saturday in a spot where oddsmakers are being very generous with the points. 9* Saturday Shocker |
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11-22-14 | Arizona +4 v. Utah | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats still have hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and I like that motivator, among other things, to propel them to a win on Saturday while preventing them from looking ahead to state rival Arizona State in their season finale. |
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11-22-14 | Louisville v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
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11-20-14 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Duke | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Last week I successfully faded Duke by releasing a play on Virginia Tech and I believe the Blue Devils are laying too many points once again this week in their annual Tobacco Road showdown. Besides having a dangerous offense that ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, UNC is a team that causes turnovers and I feel that turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. The Tar Heels have recovered nine fumbles and picked off 11 passes this season and have forced at least one turnover in every game they’ve played. Duke, meanwhile, is coming off its worst turnover performance of the season after coughing the ball up three times against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils seemingly fell apart in every aspect against the Hokies including missing two field goals by a perfect field goal kicker this season and they gave up four sacks after giving up just four all season combined. They won’t get away with more sloppy play against a UNC team that is playing its best football of the year with three wins in its last four games. The Heels also have a ton of motivation for this game. A win Thursday night would secure bowl eligibility for them and end arch rival Duke’s hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division. 10* Thursday Best Bet - UNC |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I feel the Mountaineers are being a little undervalued here by oddsmakers Thursday night after two straight losses. Those losses were to a Big-12 leading TCU squad on a last-second field goal and to a vastly improved Texas team that faced the Mountaineers while I believe they were facing a bit of a hangover from the TCU loss. WVU is still a very good team despite the losses and I believe they’ll be propelled by an incredible home atmosphere on Senior Night in front of a national TV audience. The Mountaineers have used a bye week to shake off the sting of the two-game slide and to get healthy while preparing for another tough opponent. One of the key matchups that has me liking West Virginia here is its outstanding passing game against a so-so pass defense for K-State. WVU ranks 12th in the country with 318 passing yards per game and the team has five receivers with at least 200 yards this year. One of the few weaknesses on this Wildcats team is its pass defense where it ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 63rd in the nation in passing efficiency defense. I expect this game to be another exciting one for West Virginia but the determining factor for me is the Mountaineers’ top strength is playing against what I feel is K-State’s biggest weakness. That adds up to what I believe is a very strong play. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite |
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11-15-14 | LSU v. Arkansas -2.5 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on ARKANSAS. Every SEC team that played the Razorbacks this season left the field wiping its brow and letting out a humongous sigh of relief. |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal need one more win to become bowl eligible, they are seeking revenge after losing to Utah last season, and Saturday marks their last home game of the season. |
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11-15-14 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -100 | 121 h 59 m | Show |
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11-13-14 | California +14 v. USC | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on CAL. The Golden Bears haven’t beating USC since 2003 and at I believe the Trojans should be nervous about this year’s game even though it is at Los Angeles Coliseum. The reason is Cal brings one of the best quarterbacks and overall passing games in the nation and it will face a USC secondary that is neither incredible nor entirely healthy. USC ranks 101st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game Freshman starting safety John Plattenburg has a Charlie horse and is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Outside linebacker/safety and arguably the team’s best defensive standout, Su'a Cravens, is expected to play but he suffered an MCL sprain in the last game against Washington State. I feel Bears quarterback Jared Goff will be able to keep Cal in this game and maybe even give them a shot at winning it. He ranks fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards and is four passing TDs away from tying a single-season record at Cal. Goff has only four interceptions compared to 10 last year and what makes him so dangerous is the way he spreads the ball around. Cal has six receivers with at least 20 catches this season. The Golden Bears are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and I feel oddsmakers are being far to nice to them once again for this Pac-12 showdown. 10* Thursday Best Bet |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -2 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. I like the Pirates to come away from Cincinnati with a win on Thursday for two main reasons. The first is that just about anywhere you look, the Pirates stack up better statistically. The second is that ECU is coming off one of its most baffling losses in recent school memory and I believe the Pirates will be extra hungry for a win against the Bearcats. There’s no real need to go through every statistic but ECU’s numbers are better than Cincy’s when you stack them up in just about every category on offense and defense. The Pirates have the No. 4 total offense and the No. 3 passing offense in the nation but the number I feel might have the biggest impact on Thursday is the Pirates’ rush defense. ECU’s rush defense ranks eighth in the country and allows just 96.8 yards per game. That will be key against a Cincy offense that used a run game to propel the team to a win over Tulane last week. The Bearcats had two 100-yard rushers in that contest for the first time in a game since 2003, which was a huge benefit for QB Munchie Legaux. Legaux is now the starting QB in place of Gunner Kiel, who has been bothered by a rib injury for several weeks. I don’t believe Legaux will have the comfort level he did against Tulane where a running game opened up the field and made passing easier. I expect ECU to stall the rush and put a tighter squeeze on executing an air assault. ECU is coming off a tough 20-10 loss to Temple and the baffling part is the Pirates never really threatened to win the game despite outgaining the Owls by 293 yards. Five turnovers in sloppy weather killed ECU in the end and I expect the Pirates to take better care of the ball against Cincy. The Pirates are 11-0 ATS following a straight up loss and they have outgained their opponents in yards in all eight of their games this season. 9* Thursday Roast |
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11-08-14 | Alabama -6.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide have perhaps their best and most balanced offense we’ve seen in years, which is a little scary for LSU and confidence boosting for this pick. |
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11-08-14 | Notre Dame v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 31-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. I like the Sun Devils here and it may not be for the reasons you might think. Most folks think offense when they look at ASU and it’s no wonder. The Sun Devils own the No. 22 total offense in the nation and they’ve scored at least 38 points in four games this year. But I like them to beat the Domers on Saturday with defense. Arizona State started a little more slowly than it would’ve liked on defense but the team also had to replace nine starters on defense coming into the season. Lately the Sun Devils are coming into their own and they’ve given up an average of just 15.33 points per game over their last three. They also allowed fewer than 300 yards in each of those games in quality wins over Utah, Washington and Stanford. "I don’t think any team will score more than 20 points on us the rest of the season," said WR Jaelen Strong this week. I think Arizona State will also be able to take advantage of a Notre Dame defense that has gone from stellar in the early season to sloppy recently. The Irish are giving up an average of 37.7 points over their last three contests and they just lost starting linebacker Joe Schmidt for the season to an ankle injury. 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -114 | 118 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on SYRACUSE. Last week I played against Duke when the Blue Devils traveled to Pitt and the difference between covering that game and not was a missed 26-yard field goal by Pitt’s kicker that allowed the game to go to overtime. |
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11-08-14 | Georgia -10 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-31 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
I am playing on GEORGIA. Any hopes the Wildcats had of Georgia overlooking them went out the window last week when the Bulldogs took a licking from Florida 38-20 with the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 points. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
10* Best Bet, Oklahoma State, analysis posted shortly ... |
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11-01-14 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I like the Gamecocks here Saturday as the Vols enter hostile territory in a tough SEC night game environment in Columbia. |
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11-01-14 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -3.5 | Top | 51-48 | Loss | -103 | 64 h 35 m | Show |
I am playing on PITT. I’m expecting Pittsburgh to bounce back after a rough game last week that saw them cough up four turnovers on their first six plays that led to a drubbing before they even realized what time it was. I expect the Panthers to be much better against a more traditional offense like Duke’s this week after facing the triple offense of Georgia Tech last week. Pitt owns the 17th ranked overall defense in the country, the sixth ranked pass defense and the 11th ranked third down conversion defense. Those are the numbers that I feel will be the deciding factors in Saturday’s game. Pitt boasts a force on the ground in James Conner, who leads the ACC with 1,079 yards and 14 TDs. I believe it’s a great recipe for the Panthers in a game that might see some wintry weather with cold temperatures and a possibility of rain or snow. Duke’s rush defense is nothing to write home about with 193 yards against per game, which I expect to be a major advantage for Pitt in controlling the pace of this contest. 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR |
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11-01-14 | Utah State v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -112 | 63 h 53 m | Show |
I am playing on HAWAII. This is a popular game on college Saturdays because bettors easily get caught up in either chasing losses or grabbing one more ‘W’ before NFL Sunday rolls around. It’s the ‘last call’ of the betting world on Saturdays with home games starting around 11 p.m. ET due to Hawaii’s time zone. Despite that, I rarely offer plays on Warriors games unless I really like them and this week is one of those games. Hawaii is getting points on home turf against a team they matchup very similarly statistically with and that’s facing the tough travel to paradise. "Those guys play with their hair on fire," Utah State Matt Wells said this week. "They play hard, they chase the football and play with tremendous effort. I know that is something [Clune] has instilled in them and demanded out of them. I think that's very, very evident when you flip on the tape." The Warriors will have an improving O-line to help them do that that is finally getting healthy after some early injuries to start the year. The O-line has given up just three sacks through its first three conference games, which will come in handy against a Utah State squad that is best at stopping the run. What the Aggies aren’t so good at is getting yards when they need them. Utah State, which is seriously depleted at the QB position, ranks 118th in the country in third down conversions and nearly dead last at 124th in fourth down conversion percentage. Utah State also ranks near the worst in the country in penalty yards per game and Hawaii has long been known to get the benefit of the doubt on penalties at Aloha Stadium. The Warriors haven't forgotten last year's 47-10 blowout loss - they'll be looking for some payback here and will be anxious to show how much they've improved. As always, the visiting team is in tough when traveling to Hawaii. Utah State planned to leave Thursday, giving them shorter prep time than usual to prepare for Saturday’s game. 10* Revenge GOY |
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10-30-14 | Troy +26 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on TROY. At first glance, you see the Trojans are just 1-7 straight up this season and struggling in the final year for their storied coach Larry Blakeney. Upon closer inspection we see that Troy is 4-4 against the spread this year and all four of their covers came against winning teams. In short, Troy gets up for better teams and it plays down to its competition. Georgia Southern is certainly one of those better teams as the current leader of the Sun Belt Conference and I expect a big effort from the Trojans in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Georgia Southern relies almost entirely on its ground game to move the chains for 402 yards per game rushing. That’s about 50 yards more than any other team in the country on the ground. The two things I like about that are: 1. A so-so Trojans defense doesn’t have to worry much about a passing game and 2. This offense has the potential to eat a ton of time on the clock. This is the biggest spread Ga. Southern has seen all season and I see the sand falling to the bottom of the hour glass before the Eagles have a chance to cover this lofty number. Troy is working with two QBs right now under center but both are mobile and can improvise when needed. I like that factor heading into Thursday along with kickoff threat Chandler Worthy, who ranks 15th in the country in kickoff returns this season. He’s returned two kicks for touchdowns and if Troy can’t get its offense moving, it will likely often work from decent field position at least. 10* Best Bet |
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10-25-14 | Alabama v. Tennessee +17.5 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
I am playing on TENNESSEE. You may be looking at Alabama’s win 59-0 last week – its largest margin of victory since 1979 – and wondering why I’m taking the Vols this Sunday. It’s actually because of that big win. I believe oddsmakers have set this line too high in anticipation of Tide supporters who will inevitably jump on Bama no matter what the line was set at after a win like that. I feel Tennessee’s stout defense can grind this game down to an old-fashioned SEC hit fest, leaving the spread looking way too generous for the underdog by the time the final whistle blows. The Vols own the No. 6 pass defense and the 19th overall defense in the nation. They also own the seventh ranked third down conversion defense in the land, which is an area Bama has had success this season on offense. The Vols will use a sold out crowd (and an angry one thanks to Lane Kiffin) to help keep Bama off balance on those third down spots where the Tide normally keep the chains moving. I see that leading to some promising field position and a running clock for the Vols, factors which will help them cover the number. Another element I really like here is that it t’s no secret Alabama is much less comfortable on the road than at home lately. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the spread in their last four road outings. 10* Best Bet |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -1 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -104 | 93 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe the Cowboys will use a deafening home crowd at the ‘Greatest American Homecoming Celebration’ this Saturday to help propel them to a win over West Virginia. Oddsmakers are anticipating the public will overreact to the Cowboys’ 42-9 loss to TCU last week, which is why OK State isn’t favored by more points here. That game was the worst of the season for the Pokes and I expect them to bounce back this week. Part of the problem in that loss was an inability to establish a running game. Oklahoma State came into the contest hoping to establish a ground presence but was ultimately stymied by TCU’s 38th nationally ranked rush defense. This week the Cowboys face a weaker West Virginia run defense that allows 167 yards rushing per game. I believe that will help Oklahoma State set up its passing game and get back to scoring points after an off week versus TCU. Another factor I love about this game is that one of the key mismatches between these two teams is in the red zone. Oklahoma State owns the 15th best red zone offense in the country while West Virginia owns the 117th ranked red zone defense. I feel that will prove extra costly for a West Virginia team that is one of the absolute worst in the country in turnover margin (-1.57) ranked 123rd. OK State - 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-18-14 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Jameis Winston (probable) and the Seminoles offense is on a three-week stretch of dominance, and that should continue unabated against a Fighting Irish team that has been solid defensively for most of the season, but inexplicably gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week. The Irish are fortunate to still be unbeaten at this point, having turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Quarterback Everett Golson has thrown four picks in his previous three contests and completed barely 50 percent of his combined passes in wins over Stanford and the Tar Heels. The Seminoles turned three Syracuse turnovers into 10 points last week, and will make Golson and Notre Dame pay for not holding on to the football. And let’s be real: this pick is mostly about the Florida State offense, which should pick apart Notre Dame’s young, suspect secondary. The Seminoles have racked up 1,489 yards of total offense over their last three games, coinciding with Winston’s return to the lineup. They’re also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, and have won their last 10 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium by an average of 41.8 points. I expect Winston to play and I expect a double-digit win. 10* - Main Event |
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10-18-14 | Oklahoma State +9 v. TCU | Top | 9-42 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 33 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Cowboys have yet to play a bad game this season - they gave top-ranked Florida State all it could handle before falling just short in the season opener, then reeled off five straight victories while scoring more than 35 points four times. Take them as an underdog against TCU? Don’t mind if I do. From a trends perspective, Oklahoma State has plenty going for it. It’s 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 October games, and 7-3 ATS in its previous 10 conference tilts. The Cowboys are in the top 30 nationally in points per game, and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Simply put, they’re one of the most balanced teams out there - not only in the Big 12, but in the NCAA. The Horned Frogs have an impressive offence in their own right, but they’ve been put in their place on the defensive end after a strong showing against a trio of pretenders. TCU surrendered 94 points against Oklahoma and Baylor, and should face a similar challenge against quarterback Daxx Garman and a relentless Cowboys attack. And while Horned Frogs junior QB Trevone Boykin is a talent, he completed just 41-of-85 passes against the Sooners and Bears - and that won’t fly against Oklahoma State. 10* - Best Bet |
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10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -11.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 114 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on ALABAMA. Saturday’s matchup against visiting Texas A&M is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, and until I see Kenny Hill and the Aggies prove they can play four solid quarters against quality opposition, they can’t be trusted - especially in hostile Tuscaloosa. Texas A&M’s once-formidable offense has all but disappeared over the first three quarters of its last three games, registering just 38 points over that span. Hill and the boys can’t seem to get things going until the fourth quarter - and if they wait that long against the Crimson Tide, they could find themselves down by four touchdowns - and no team comes back from that kind of deficit at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama looked shaky at times in a loss to Ole Miss and a narrow win over Arkansas, but I’m not betting against the Tide at home. Especially not with the Aggies having surrendered 83 points over their last two games and boasting a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven conference games. This is also Alabama’s lone home game in a six-week stretch, so you know they’re going to come out firing. 10* - Personal Favorite |
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10-18-14 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma -8 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 59 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners come into this one ready to prove that last week’s win over Texas wasn’t a fluke, even though the numbers suggest it may have been. Oklahoma remains a contender for the Big 12 title despite struggling in back-to-back games, and recent trends suggest they should have little trouble handling visiting Kansas State on Saturday. The Sooners have played down to the level of their competition at times over the past few years, but they’ve also shown an innate ability to get up for good teams. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records. And the Sooners don’t let bad games affect them moving forward, having gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after surrendering more than 450 yards in their previous outing. Don’t expect Oklahoma’s defensive struggles to continue through the weekend. The Wildcats have played just one road game this season, and came nowhere near covering in that one, escaping with a 32-28 victory over Iowa State despite going in as an 11 1/2-point favorite. Kansas State boasts one of the more potent running games in the conference - averaging 4 1/2 yards per carry with 18 touchdowns - but could have fits against an Oklahoma defense limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. And if the Wildcats can’t get the run game going, it could be a long day in Norman. 10* - Breakfast Club |
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10-11-14 | LSU -1 v. Florida | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on LSU. The Gators are in a bit of a mess entering this week while LSU will be hungry to rebound after a humbling loss to Auburn last week. Florida’s offense has been nothing to brag about amid quarterback struggles this season. But last week it appeared for a fleeting moment like they had a solution. Backup QB Treon Harris came off the bench and was just efficient enough to propel the Gators to a 10-9 win over Tennessee. The bad news for Florida is the team has placed him on interim suspension following sexual assault allegations against Harris that came on Monday. The incident allegedly took place in the wee hours of Sunday morning and the Gators have been dealing with all the distractions and the media circus that come with that kind of controversy. It means Florida will return to Jeff Driskel, who couldn’t find a Gator in the Everglades right now. He hasn’t been able to throw for even 100 yards in each of his last two games with one measly touchdown pass and five interceptions combined in those games. LSU has been having its own QB issues but the Tigers couldn’t have caught Florida at a better time here. LSU is also 4-1 against the spread its last five games coming off a straight up loss. Coach Les Miles knows how to get his team to rebound and I strongly believe LSU will take down the Gators in the Swamp. 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-11-14 | Penn State v. Michigan -1 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 138 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on MICHIGAN. The Wolverines just might come into this game with the biggest home edge in all of college football this week. This will be the Wolverines’ first Big Ten night game in Michigan Stadium’s 88-year history and they’ll be playing it with huge revenge motivation after Penn State won and covered the last five meetings in the series. This is only the third home night game in Michigan’s history and the school set an attendance record each of the previous two occurences. I believe a hostile crowd of over 110,000 will make life miserable for Penn State on Saturday and the Nittany Lions will fall short in an old fashioned style Big Ten battle where two great defenses will gut it out. There isn’t much to separate these two on defense but where Michigan has a key advantage is the Wolverines are 15-for-15 in red zone opportunities this year. That makes them only one of five schools in the country to be perfect in that category. In a game where I anticipate limited red zone opportunities, I like Michigan to fulfill what the home crowd is looking for on Saturday. 10* Big Ten GOM |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +16.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 134 h 11 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I believe there is a spot here to fade Notre Dame at a time where this very public Irish team is being lauded in the media and visions of national championships and Heisman Trophies are dancing in the heads of Irish supporters. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the spread this year, but I see a quickly improving team that’s getting a generous helping of points on Saturday. Their weakness has been on defense – mainly its youth - where they brought an inexperienced batch of starters to the field. Things are starting jell now and last week they allowed the fewest number of yards since their season opening victory against Liberty. The Heels held Virginia Tech to a respectable 357 yards and eventually it was the offense’s three turnovers in bad spots, all of which led to touchdowns, that doomed UNC. I believe UNC will take better care of the ball this week and throw some things at Notre Dame that will keep the Irish guessing. The Heels say they’ll stick with a dual quarterback rotation of Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky. They’ll use the two to continue to run a no-huddle, up-tempo offense that aims to keep the Irish unsettled on defense and I believe that will ultimately help them cover this big number. 10* Best Bet |
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10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on AUBURN. Auburn Tigers faithful have been waiting since 2010 to taste another victory against SEC West foe LSU and I believe they won’t have to wait any longer than this weekend. Auburn is in a perfect spot here with a drastically improved, stifling defensive unit that will face a freshman quarterback about to make his first college start. Auburn ranks better statistically in just about every defensive category compared to last year’s team, ranking in the top 20 in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed. LSU, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the consistency it would like on offense which is why the Tigers are starting Brandon Harris. Harris led seven touchdown drives last game – but that was against New Mexico State in a friendly atmosphere. I’m anticipating he’ll learn some tough lessons on Saturday. 10* Personal Favorite |
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09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Anyone that was expecting an early season drop off from Duke after the Blue Devils won the ACC Coastal last year has to be scratching their head. Then again the level of competition hasn't been too great for David Cutcliffe's team, which is now 4-0 SU after a 47-13 win over Tulane last week. Things definitely get tougher this week as Duke visits Coral Gables to play a Hurricanes team that will a) be out for revenge and b) angry after losing last week at Nebraska. The revenge comes from a 48-30 loss last year in Durham. Miami was coming off back to back losses there and were without Duke Johnson, who got injured in the Florida State game. Before last year, Miami had not lost to Duke going all the way back to 1976. Last week's loss to Nebraska saw Miami get run over and commit five personal foul penalties in the second half alone. The penalties can be corrected. The poor run defense could be an issue, but at least they won't be up against Ameer Abdullah again. The big difference for Miami on offense this year compared to last is the presence of their own running back Johnson. So far, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Had the team not fallen behind in both losses, Johnson could perhaps have been used more effectively. QB Brad Kaaya has steadily improved over the course of four games. The freshman has thrown for over 300 yards each of the last two games. Against Nebraska, he was 28 of 42 for a career best 359 yards. Though one-point away from being 4-0 ATS, the competition just hasn't been that great for Duke, who has played Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. While the stats may not support Miami being the favorite here, I'll still side with their superior athleticism and individual matchup advantages. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-27-14 | Stanford v. Washington +8 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This is a game that I expect to go down to the wire. Washington has played Stanford tough each of the last two years, including a 17-13 upset at home in 2012. Last year's game was 31-28 in favor of Stanford, but it was UW that held the 489 to 279 edge in total yards. They covered as eight-point underdogs. Now, we have a similar line, only this time in Seattle. Seems like a pretty good value to me. I know it's coach Chris Petersen's first year, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS their last five as home dogs. Washington has started 4-0 for Petersen, which is the first time a coach has started that well at the school in over a century. It wasn't easy last week as they actually trailed Georgia State 14-0 (as five TD favorites!) before closing the game on a 45-0 run during which they would outgain their opponent 231 to 73. Winning the turnover margin, 4-0, did the Huskies a lot of favors obviously last week. Personally, I'm not putting a ton of stock into that early deficit. I had Washington the week previous when they blew out Illinois 44-19. Stanford is off a bye. Both wins this year have been shutouts. But they have suffered a very frustrating loss, to USC, even though they moved the ball well in that game. Coming off the bye, naturally you would expect the Cardinal to be "amped up." But those who have played in Husky Stadium aren't shy about letting you know that it's one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, if you're the road team. A young Stanford offensive line could struggle Saturday afternoon. Washington is 19-3 straight up its last 22 home games. 10* best bet. |
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09-27-14 | Tennessee v. Georgia -17 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. If the current number holds, this would be the largest pointspread in the history of the Georgia-Tennessee rivalry. Frankly, it's indicative of the way this SEC East matchup has gone in recent years. Georgia has won four years in a row, and while the last three have been pretty close games, this one figures to be a blowout. The Bulldogs come into this game off a 66-0 beatdown of Troy that saw them run for 367 yards, their most ever under coach Mark Richt. That's with Heisman candidate Todd Gurley running the ball only six times. So Gurley will be at full strength here and that's bad news for a Tennessee team that's coming off a 34-10 loss to Oklahoma. In doing so, the Vols allowed 7.4 yards per carry to a freshman running back. The Volunteers had an off-week after losing to OU, but I don't see it helping much against a far superior opponent. This has been a program on the decline for some time. Tennessee just can't hang with the big boys anymore. They did upset South Carolina last season, but also lost to Oregon, Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn all by two touchdowns or more. Tennessee is a young team dealing with injuries. That's a bad combo when heading "between the hedges." Two of the team's top five receivers may not play here, which would be a crippling blow. It's already been confirmed that Von Pearson will not play in this game. Additionally, no team in America has played more true freshman this season than the Vols have. They've sent 22 such players onto the field after just four games. I've also been impressed with Georgia QB Hutson Mason, who is completing 71.2 percent of his passes this year. The Bulldogs are going to be just too much for the Vols. 10* main event |
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09-20-14 | Oregon v. Washington State +24 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. One could certainly make the argument that this game matches up the best team and worst team from the Pac 12. But the pointspread is referred to the "great equalizer" for a reason. Taking a generous amount of points at home this week, I like Washington State to cover against #2 Oregon. Though they are just 1-2 SU/ATS, Washington State has yet to be an underdog. So the disappointing start to the season that includes losses to both Rutgers and Nevada actually works in our favor here. It is likely that the Cougars wouldn't be getting nearly this many points had they lost only once and certainly not if they were unbeaten. The Cougars have actually covered four years in a row against the Ducks, every time as a big dog. Last year's game saw them lose 62-38 down in Eugene, but they were taking nearly 40 points. This will be the first time Oregon has played on the road this season. After covering the spread in each of the final eight road games under Chip Kelly, the Ducks fell to 3-2 SU/ATS outside of Eugene last year under Mark Helfrich. This is also the first time that Washington State has played UO in Pullman since 2010. The 2012 "home game" was actually played in Seattle. That 2010 matchup was the closest between the teams in recent memory as the Ducks won by "only" 20 points. As long as Mike Leach is the coach, you know WSU is going to put points on the board. While they certainly may have trouble stopping Oregon on offense, the Cougars should be able to score enough to stay within the generous number. The team averaged 31.0 points per game last season and is up over 36 PPG through three games this year. 10* main event. |
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09-20-14 | California v. Arizona -12 | Top | 45-49 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. I believe Rich Rodriguez's team will be taking this game seriously as they very nearly lost to Cal last year in Berkeley as a big favorite. But this year's game is at home and this isn't the first time in 2014 that I've backed the Wildcats in Tucson. They came out of the gates with a real easy 58-13 win over UNLV in the opener. Since that time, it's been a pair of close calls for "Rich Rod." I went against his team in Week 2 as they visited UT-San Antonio and won by just a 26-23 margin. I laid off last week's home game vs. Nevada as they won 35-28, but still feel I've got a pretty good pulse on Arizona nonetheless. With the two narrow wins, bettors have lined up early to bet against the Wildcats. I feel that works to our advantage. A Cal team I played in the opening week against Northwestern (a win) is now being overvalued. I say that because the Bears have lost their last 14 Pac 12 games. That's the second longest conference losing streak in the entire country right now. Both teams are pretty good at stopping the run. But when it comes to offense, Arizona is much better. In fact, there are few better nationally on that side of the ball. They come in averaging 582.7 yards per game. That is tops among all Pac 12 teams and 8th overall in the country. The Wildcats may be averaging slightly less points than they were at this time last year, but the yardage is up, both on a per play and per game basis. Freshman QB Anu Soloman has been better than expected as has freshman running back Nick Wilson, who had big shoes to fill after Ka'Deem Carey went to the NFL. I just don't see Cal as being ready to compete with the upper echelon in the conference. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-20-14 | Texas A&M v. SMU +31.5 | Top | 58-6 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on SMU. Sometimes, when taking a look at a given matchup, there's no disputing who the underdog should be. This is one of those instances as Southern Methodist hosts #6 Texas A&M. The Aggies are rightfully big favorites in this spot, but I think too big of favorites against a SMU team that will play desperate football here. I'm going to take the points. To say things haven't gone well for SMU thus far would be a mild understatement. They lost their first two games - against Baylor and North Texas - by a combined 88-6 margin. Then their coach June Jones resigned due to personal reasons. It's hard to imagine any team in the country being in worse shape after only three games than the Mustangs are. But they have had an extra week to prepare and should come out fired up to play this, their first home game of the season, for a new head coach. Tom Mason, who was the defensive coordinator under Jones, is taking over on an interim basis for the remainder of the year. I just think that this is too many points for any team to lay on the road. It would be easy for Texas A&M to look past this game and towards a stretch of four key SEC West battles that follow it. Also, the Aggies will be without one of their key playmakers, Speedy Noil. The aptly named wide receiver has suffered an unspecified injury according to coach Kevin Sumlin. The five-star recruit, who also returns punts and kicks, currently leads the team in all-purpose yardage. The Aggies "only" won by 28 points last week over Rice and that was at home. I can guarantee you that no matter where the line closes, it will be the most points the team has had to lay in any road game during Sumlin's tenure at College Station. 10* best bet. |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 82 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS STATE. Auburn deserves all the respect that it's getting here from the oddsmakers as they come into Thursday night on a 13-0 ATS run. But that being said, I still feel they're laying too many points against a ranked, non-conference foe that has treated its own backers well when playing at home. I'll be taking the points in this one. Kansas State boasts an 88-53 ATS home record in Bill Snyder's 22 years in Manhattan. That's 62.5%. They may not have covered the spread in the opening game this year, but they were also laying in excess of 40 points against Stephen F. Austin. Laying points on the road in these Thursday night situations is always tough. Take note of the fact Auburn has not played a true road game out of conference in the last two seasons. The have played one non-SEC foe at a neutral site each year. In 2012, they lost their opening game to Clemson in Atlanta and then of course last year fell to Florida State in the BCS Championship Game. Since Snyder came back to the school in 2007, Kansas State has a 27-7 SU home record. Surprisingly, they lost three times at home last year, matching the number of losses from the previous three seasons combined. But all three losses were by 10 points or less. The key for the Wildcats will be stopping the run. Auburn led the nation in rushing yardage last season and again is averaging well over 300 yards per game on the ground this year. But Kansas State has allowed just 174 yards rushing total in two games. 10* main event. |
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09-13-14 | Northen Illinois v. UNLV +9 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. It's been a pretty rough start to the season so far for these Rebels. I went against them in their first game as they lost a laugher at Arizona, 58-13 as big underdogs. Last week, though a win, was hardly any more impressive as they beat a lowly FCS squad, Northern Colorado, by only a 13-12 final margin. Though that kind of win isn't going to impress anyone, it should be mentioned that UNLV did turn the ball over four times, obviously making it harder on themselves. One positive is that they did run the ball for 211 yards. They are back to catching a big number this week as they host Northern Illinois, who is off a win over Northwestern, which was one of just a series of black eyes for the Big 10 last week. But despite beating a team from the Big 10 for a second straight year, I don't believe there's reason to think that this Huskies team will be as strong as the last couple of seasons. Sure NIU has won 16 consecutive road games. But they were held scoreless in the first half last week by a Northwestern defense that likely isn't very good. This is also the second of what will be three straight road games for the team. This is the sandwich game as they'll play Arkansas next week, again a foe from a bigger conference. I can see them looking past UNLV here. Last year when Northern Illinois was better and had Jordan Lynch at quarterback, they went out West once during the regular season and failed to cover an even larger number against a poor Idaho team. Ironically, they had just beaten Iowa the game previous, so it's a similar letdown situation this week. NIU was actually 0-2 ATS on the West Coast last year, also losing its bowl game to Utah State by a score of 21-14. 10* best bet. |
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09-13-14 | Georgia v. South Carolina +6 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 104 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Who would have guessed that this would be the line for this all-important SEC East matchup just two weeks ago? But with the Gamecocks off to a lethargic start that includes that high-profile, embarrassing loss to Texas A&M in the opener and then a close call last week vs. East Carolina, they are now a decided underdog against Georgia. The Bulldogs have played just one game and looked impressive against Clemson. I was on Georgia there, laying the points. Though it ended up being a relatively easy cover, it was a three-point game going into the fourth quarter. They will not have the benefit of playing in Athens in this game. Last year it was Georgia that came into this matchup in somewhat of dire straits, off a LOSS to Clemson the week prior. Now that they are off a win AND a bye week, it's kind of easy to see why they'd be favored, especially with South Carolina struggling. But I think it's too many points. Before the season started, South Carolina absolutely would have been favored here. Remember that South Carolina came into the season owning the nation's longest home win streak at 18 games. A&M caught them off guard. I don't think Georgia will. Georgia had lost to South Carolina three straight times before winning last year. They have not won in Columbia since '08, scoring a total of only 13 points in two losses since. The Gamecocks' defense has taken it on the chin in the first two games, but the pass-happy attacks of A&M and East Carolina may very well have simply been bad matchups for their secondary. Georgia is a run-first team that I see them matching up better against. Speaking of running the ball, South Carolina will have to get Mike Davis going. He has just 116 yards rushing in the first two games. He went for 149 last year against Georgia. He was not healthy in the A&M game and the team falling behind early didn't help his production. Last week, he did run for 101 yards against East Carolina. This week, I'll call for a big game from him and South Carolina. 10* SEC best of the best. |
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09-13-14 | Illinois v. Washington -14.5 | Top | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Chris Petersen is perhaps finding out that life in the Pac 12 isn't all that it's cracked up to be. His Huskies have struggled to a 2-0 start, beating Hawaii and Eastern Washington by a combined 8 points. But I'll give them a bit of a pass as playing out on the Island can be tough as can the week after. If there's one conference you want to be playing right now, it's the Big 10. The once proud league got beat up badly last week with a number of high profile losses. Who would have guessed that Illinois would be among the few left at 2-0? But the Illini have certainly had a couple of close calls. In Week 1, they actually trailed Youngstown State (a FCS team) 9-7 entering the fourth quarter. Last week saw them neck and neck with Western Kentucky, again trailing at home as favorites entering the final 15 minutes. Oddsmakers are predicting another easy win for the Pac 12 over the Big 10 this week. This is hardly Oregon-Michigan State in terms of overall levels of talent, but might the discrepancy between the two teams be the same? Washington beat Illinois last year by 10 points in Chicago, a game they never trailed. Though it got close in the end, the Huskies led by as many as three touchdowns. They also rolled up 600-plus yards total offense, nearly double that of the Illini. Taking their act on the road this year is probably not going to end well for Illinois. They have lost eight of nine away games the last two years for coach Tim Beckman. They are also 1-8 against the spread. The last time they traveled West was two years ago against Arizona State and predictably they lost badly 45-14 (as only 4-point dogs?) Meanwhile, Washington has a pretty safe bet in Seattle, going 15-6 ATS its last 21. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-13-14 | Iowa State v. Iowa -12.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. On a Saturday that saw the Big 10 pretty much embarrass itself nationally, Iowa came awfully close to putting itself at the top of the list. They trailed Ball State with a minute to go, at home, before scoring a touchdown to go ahead for good 17-13. After not being that impressive either in the first game against Northern Iowa, there's some real "soul searching" going on right now in Iowa City leading up to the big in-state rivalry game with Iowa State. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, ISU is more down than they are. The Cyclones opened their season by getting blown out by North Dakota State, the second year in a row the Bison opened their season with a win over a Big 12 opponent. Then last week saw ISU come close, but ultimately fall short against Kansas State in a 32-28 loss. Though Iowa State left town with the cash last week and the last four matchups with Iowa have all been decided by six points or less, I'm still going to lay the points with the favorite this year. Iowa should be better while little was expected from the contingent from Ames. Iowa's goal this season is a Big 10 championship and with a favorable schedule and the conference being down, they should be a player. Their four top players on offense all returned. After throwing 2 or more touchdown passes in seven games last year, QB Rudock had a career-high in yards last week with 322. This offensive line, thought to be one of the best in the Big 10, should be better. I'll point out that the Hawkeyes missed three field goals last week against Ball State. That was part of the reason that the game was close despite Iowa having a 27-13 edge in first downs and a 455-219 edge in yards. The defense did not allow a touchdown in the game as the only time Ball State found the end zone came on an early fumble return. 10* best of the best. |
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09-06-14 | BYU v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -106 | 142 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm well aware that Longhorns QB David Ash is going to miss this game. But by now the team should be used to playing without him. Also, with the way the defense played for Charlie Strong in the opener, the impact of Ash's absence won't be as great. I know it was "only" North Texas, but the Mean Green have a veteran offensive line and it was dominated by the Texas front four. They forced two interceptions on the first seven pass attempts they faced and brought constant pressure throughout the game. They allowed only eight first downs and 94 total yards! That's what you call a dominating performance. Remember that Strong's defenses at Louisville were very good. Just last year he presided over a unit that ranked #1 against the run in the entire country. That will come in handy facing a BYU offense that averaged 5.5 yards per carry in last week's 35-10 win over Connecticut. Lest we forget the revenge angle that's in play. The Longhorns got embarrassed last year out in Provo, losing 40-21. They actually came into that game as seven-point favorites. That loss signaled the end of the Mack Brown era. As noted above, the defense BYU will run into here is going to be much tougher. Ash played last year against BYU and obviously wasn't much a difference maker. As I said before, they are used to being without him as he was lost for the year in game #3 (week after BYU) last season. The 'Horns responded by winning seven of their final nine regular season games. Look for the defense to carry Texas to victory in this game as we're getting good value and Ash won't be missed as much as you think. 10* revenge GOM |
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09-06-14 | East Carolina v. South Carolina -13.5 | Top | 23-33 | Loss | -118 | 141 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Obviously, you couldn't have drawn up a worse start for Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as they got hammered by Texas A&M in their opening game, 52-28, at home. They obviously weren't ready for A&M quarterback Kenny Hill. None of us were. This week's opponent fortunately won't be nearly as challenging and this looks like a bounce back spot for the Old Ball Coach and his team. The opponent is East Carolina, a team that just two years ago the Gamecocks clobbered on this field by a score of 48-10. They easily covered the three touchdown spread in that one. The line for this matchup isn't nearly as high because of what happened last week. Unfortunately, some of the value is now gone because the number has been bet up, but that's still okay. I expect South Carolina to roll in this one. East Carolina is a team that like Texas A&M will look look to pass the ball quite a bit. Last week, it really didn't matter what the Pirates' offensive gameplan was because they were obviously going to defeat NC Central and they did by a score of 52-7. But I wouldn't count on Spurrier's defense being as bad as it was last Thursday. What I would count on is South Carolina bouncing back. Only once in the previous three seasons have they lost back to back games. That was in 2012 when they played at LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks. Don't forget that coming into the year, this was the team with nation's longest home winning streak. Laying two scores seems like a lot if you watched the Gamecocks last week, but considering the mood the coaching staff is likely to be in, plus how we all viewed this team before the A&M game, they're certainly up to the challenge. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-06-14 | Georgia Tech v. Tulane +10.5 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -102 | 138 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULANE. Going against Tulane provided me with my first win of this college football season. I have to say that it was a fortunate one though. Playing at Tulsa and getting anywhere from 3.5 (where line opened) to 6.5 (where it closed), the Green Wave came out and took a 21-7 lead on the road. At that point, I was sweating pretty badly. But not only did Tulsa come back and win, but they prevailed by seven points in double overtime! A real bad beat if you were a Tulane bettor though. This week sees the Green Wave taking double digits at home against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets opened their season with a fairly uninspired 38-19 win over Wofford. That was at home too. Not sure if I'd want to be caught laying double digits on the road with this relatively inexperienced GT team this early in the season, so I'll go the other way. The Yellow Jackets were a double digit road favorite only once all of last season. They pushed at Virginia, winning 35-25. They went 0-3-1 ATS their final four road games in 2013. They are also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games following a SU win, showing that they can't maintain success typically. Since Paul Johnson's first two seasons when they went 5-0 ATS as road chalk, the Jackets are just 6-8-2 ATS in that role. Tulane is both 5-0 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS its last four home games. The Tulsa team they played last week figures to be improved this year. I can't say the same about Georgia Tech. The Green Wave had over 500 yards of total offense last week. I like seeing that. They've also had two additional days to prepare for this game. 10* best bet. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Louisville -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. These teams just met in the Russell Athletic Bowl at the end of last season. Louisville dominated in a 36-9 rout. Though they won't have Teddy Bridgewater (NFL) or DeVante Parker (injured) for the 2014 opener, they do have Bobby Petrino back on the sidelines and as a result I don't expect the Cardinals to skip a beat. Look for them to win big in their first ever ACC home game. Miami will be starting a true freshman at quarterback themselves, so both teams are dealing with new starters at the position. At least Will Gardner has some previous experience for Louisville. Petrino won 41 games in his four-year previous stint at Louisville. Since then, his career has been marred in controversy. He famously quit the Atlanta Falcons to become the coach at Arkansas, but then was caught with a female student after he crashed his motorcycle. He resurfaced at Western Kentucky last year where he went 8-4 straight up. Obviously, he's still a very good coach. Every year we hear how Miami "is back." Every year this never really takes place. Last year's team lost four games. This year's returns fewer starters and plays a tougher schedule. This is a tough spot having to open their season on the road with Brad Kaaya making his first career start. Miami's top offensive weapon is running back Duke Johnson, who is coming back from a serious ankle injury that cost him the second half of last season. Louisville shockingly led the nation in rushing yards allowed last season. With this being a national TV game at home, Petrino and the new coaching staff are absolutely going to place a massive emphasis on winning here. They will with room to spare. 10* main event. |
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08-31-14 | Utah State +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 190 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Tennessee owns the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in the country not to return a single starter along either the offensive or defensive line. This is a dangerous Utah State team they are laying points to and I think it's too many. When looking at Utah State this year, QB Chuckie Keeton is the name to remember. Considered to be one of the more irreplaceable players in all of CFB, Keeton was lost for the year at the midpoint of last season. The Aggies still made the Mountain West Championship Game and there gave Fresno State all they could handle. Keeton is back this year. Something you may not know is that at the time of the ACL injury he was second in the entire country in TD passes with 18. He makes Utah State infinitely better. The Aggies won't be intimidated by the environment of Neyland Stadium either. Three years ago with Keeton making his first career start they went into Auburn and nearly won as 23-point underdogs. That Auburn team was coming off a National Championship. This Tennessee team certainly is not. Utah State also brings in a quality defense. Last year saw them rank 2nd in the country, giving up just 2.8 yards per rush. It's pretty incredible to see how far Tennessee has fallen down the SEC pecking order. They've had four consecutive losing seasons. It's going to be tough avoiding a fifth as they face one of the nation's most difficult schedules. The SEC vs. the Mountain West is what's helped to inflate this line. But Tennessee is one of the SEC's worst teams and Utah State is one of the MWC's best. Take the points in this one. 10* GOM |
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08-30-14 | Ohio +3 v. Kent State | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 166 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. Let's get right into the revenge angle, shall we? Ohio was Kent's final opponent last year. This is a game Ohio has been waiting for all offseason as they were hammered 44-18 at home by a Kent team that finished only 4-8. That's one of those head scratchers when you look back at the previous season's results. I expect the Bobcats to gain a measure of revenge coming out of the gate. Last year's game saw Ohio fall into a huge hole early as Kent State scored two defensive touchdowns in the opening nine minutes. It was pretty much over from there. You'd have to believe that something similar won't happen again. This is actually a double revenge situation for Ohio as they lost here 28-6 in 2012. But that was a ranked Golden Flashes team that was the program's best since the 70's. This KSU team loses perhaps its best players on both sides of the ball from last season, RB Dri Archer and DT Roosevelt Nix. Ohio also loses a ton of talent, especially on offense, but does have eight starters back on defense. They were the better team overall last year and should be again this year. Taking the points in this MAC East rivalry has traditionally been the way to go. The underdog has taken the game outright in half of the past six matchups. Usually that has been Kent State getting points. That's not the case this year, however. I can't see the Bobcats failing to cover a 6th straight time against their division rivals. Kent was 0-4-1 ATS at home last year. 10* revenge game of the month. |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. Two big things have me pointing towards Georgia in this matchup. One is revenge. Two is they should be much improved while Clemson is likely to go in the other direction. I'm not concerned about laying the points either as the Bulldogs have lost only one game "between the Hedges" the last two years. Georgia is off an 8-5 season where many things went wrong, namely an injury to starting quarterback Aaron Murray. Hutson Mason had to step in as his replacement and he certainly performed admirably. He led the team from 20 points back to defeat Georgia Tech in the final regular season game and then threw for 320 yards against Nebraska in the bowl game. Those performances bode well for this season. There were also a number of close losses for Georgia last season, most notably the one against Auburn with the ridiculous deflection on the Hail Mary. They also lost by four at Vanderbilt and by three at Clemson. This will be an improved team this year. That three-point loss to Clemson could have gone either way. The Bulldogs actually had the edge in total yards and did lead for most of the second quarter. Getting the rematch at home is a big deal, especially in a season opener. Clemson loses a number of its top players at the skill positions, most notably WR Sammy Watkins. But also gone is their all-time leading passer Tajh Boyd, who had 5 touchdowns and 312 total yards in last year's game. I'm not sure how the Tigers will replace that. Don't be surprised if Georgia RB Todd Gurley is the difference in this one. Last year, he ran for 154 yards against Clemson - on only 12 carries. He is perhaps the best running back in the entire country. 10* personal favorite. |
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08-30-14 | California +11 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 163 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. This line has been bouncing around since it opened. Many other bettors quickly joined me on the dog as Cal went from +12 to +10. There's since been some buyback on the chalk. Getting double digits, I feel the value is on California. This is a cross-country trip for the Bears, who hosted Northwestern in the 2013 opener and lost 44-30. That set the tone for a terrible first season under Sonny Dykes where they went 1-11 with no wins over FBS teams. But I think there's reasons to be a little more optimistic with this year's Cal team. They bring 15 starters back, nine of them on offense. As a freshman, QB Jared Goff set the passing record (for freshman) at the university. It's also unlikely that the team will finish -15 in turnover margin again as they did last season. Basically, what I'm saying is Cal can only go up. Northwestern is also coming off a terribly disappointing season. They were more competitive than California was, but no team (perhaps in the nation) had worse luck at the end of games. They too are almost guaranteed of improving on 2013's win total. But I'm still not sure I like the Wildcats in the chalk role. They failed to cover four of five times last season laying points in Evanston. Last year's game was a bit closer than the final score indicates. It was tied early in the 4th quarter and Cal was able to cut the lead to 7 points with just under five minutes to go. They also had to overcome two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. That's basically a guaranteed loss right there and ended up being the difference in the final score. Northwestern is a team not known for winning games by big margins. I prefer to be on them as a dog, quite honestly. There is also the issue of RB Venric Mark, who was to be suspended for the first two games anyway, transferring out of the program. Grab the points. 10* best bet. |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
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01-01-14 | Central Florida +17 v. Baylor | Top | 52-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
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01-01-14 | Michigan State v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. In the smaller December bowl games, the more motivated team will often get the cover. That becomes less of a factor as we get into the bigger January bowls, as both teams are generally happy to be here. That means the coaching and talent will typically be the deciding factors, turnovers notwithstanding. In this case, both teams are well-coached and both teams are talented. That said, I believe Stanford is a little better offensively and that the Michigan State is going to have some trouble keeping up.
The Spartans average 29.8 points per game, 5.4 yards per play. Meanwhile, the Cardinal average 33.2 ppg and 6.4 ypp. Over the last three games, those numbers are even more slanted in Stanford's favor. The Cardinal are averaging 42.7 points their last three games, a whopping 513 yards and 7.7 yards per play. Conversely, the Spartans are averaging 26 points and 408.7 yards their last three games. Some could potentially argue that this game is bigger for MSU. While it is true that Stanford has been here before and would have liked bigger things, this is the 100th edition of the Rose Bowl. I don't believe "lack of motivation" to be a factor. While its been a while since they met a team from the Pac-12 (previously Pac-10) the Spartans have never fared too well when they did. I expect that to continue to the case here, as Stanford picks up a big win and cover. 10* |
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12-31-13 | Duke v. Texas A&M -11.5 | Top | 48-52 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I`m playing on TEXAS A&M. In many ways, the Blue Devils have had a more successful season than the Aggies. One could certainly argue that they`ve over-achieved while the Aggies have under-achieved. That`s definitely been the case at the betting window. I believe the Aggies are laying this many points for good reason though. I expect them to rise to the occasion with a big double-digit win.
The Blue Devils were able to more than hold their own against mediocre or good opponents. When facing an elite team - Florida State - in their last game, they were outclassed, a 45-7 blowout. While the Aggies aren`t in the Seminoles class defensively, they do have a bigtime offense, led by an elite QB. The Aggies average 586 yards per game on the season, 43.6 points. They should put up big numbers against a Duke defense which allowed more than 400 yards per game. The Blue Devils averaged only 23 points per game on the road this season. Johnny Manziel will likely be playing his final college game and he`ll be looking to go out with a bang. Having lost their games against ranked teams this year, the entire team figures to have something to prove. I don't think Duke will be able to keep up. 10* |
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -110 | 310 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've had excellent success in picking my spots to back the Eagles this season. I believe this will prove to be another good spot to do so.
This matchup features two of the best running backs in college football. BC's Andre Williams became just the 16th back in NCAA history to crack the 2000 yard barrier and the first since 2007 to turn the trick. Arizona's Carey led the nation in rushing last year and followed up with another big year (1700+ yards) this year. The teams are similar in many ways. Both teams started the year with question marks at quarterback but with Williams and Carey carrying the mail as the focal point of the offense, the Eagle's Chase Rettig (a 4-year starter) and the Cat's B.J. Denker have both developed into solid game managers. Both teams are somewhat suspect on defense. Boston College rocks the nation's 107th ranked pass defense, a stop unit that allowed opposing QB's to complete 67% of their passes with a 24-9 TD/Int ratio. The good news for the Wildcats in August was that they returned all 11 started from an outfit that allowed 35 points and 499 ypg last year. The bad news is that this same crew allowed 25 points-per-game on 409 yards per this year. In a game that figures to see a lot of running, note that the Eagles' defense has been a little better against the run. BC allowed 154 rushing yards per game, 3.9 per carry. Meanwhile, Arizona allowed 170 rushing yards per game, 4.2 per carry. The Eagles were 4-2 ATS as underdogs and 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. On the other hand, Arizona was only 2-4 SU/ATS against teams with a winning record. I believe that its worth mentioning that the Eagles played Florida State much tougher than any other team in the country did. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, it should also be noted that the Eagles have one of the best kickers in the country, The bottom line is that I believe that these are two evenly matched teams, far more so than is indicated by the line. That being the case, I believe grabbing all those generous points will prove the way to go. 10* |
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. Both teams come in on a roll. Navy is off a 34-7 win over Army, its fourth straight victory. The Blue Raiders are off a 48-17 victory, their fifth in a row. While the Midshipmen are always tough, I don't believe they should be laying this many points against a team which is arguably playing as well as they are.
The Blue Raiders should be happy to be here, always an important factor in bowls. They felt snubbed by not being chosen for a bowl game last season. Their last bowl game was in 2010 and they lost that one. Coach Stockstill said this of the Blue Raiders: "I told them to think back to their emotions that they had at this time last year and to understand and appreciate how special going to this bowl is going to be." The Navy option attack is never easy to stop. Having more time to prepare for it helps though. Also, note that the The Blue Raiders' run defense improved down the stretch, allowing an average of 116.6 yards over the last three games. In addition to having a QB who threw for nearly 2300 yards and 16 TDs, the Raiders have a pair or backs, who have combined for more than 1400 yards on the ground, Parker with 767 and Whatley with 640. The Raiders, who will a Navy team which gave up 35 or more five times, have averaged 42.6 points over their last five games. I expect them put up enough points to earn at least a cover here. 10* |
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12-28-13 | Michigan v. Kansas State -5.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS STATE. Its true that Bill Snyder hasn't had much success in the bowls of late. I expect that to finally change tonight.
With five wins in their final six games, the Wildcats are playing with confidence. Needless to say, Snyder desperately wants to break the bowl drought. His players desperately want to do it for him. They'll be catching a Michigan team which will be playing without its starting QB. Freshman Shane Morris will be making his first career start. Considering that starting QB Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and four touchdowns last game out, that's a big deal. While a first time starter would normally like to rely on a solid ground game to help him out, Michigan isn't strong in that department. The Wolverines average 3.2 yards per carry, 112th in the country and their worst mark this millennium. While the Wolverines would prefer to be in a bigger bowl, this is a big deal to the Wildcats. Junior linebacker Jonathan Truman noted: "Nobody on our team has won a bowl game, with the exception of the coaches. We need it. We want it really bad." I look for the healthier, hungrier team to win this one, picking up the cover along the way. 10* |
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12-21-13 | Buffalo +1 v. San Diego State | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -112 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo. Motivation typically plays an important role in who covers in bowl games. In this case, I believe that Buffalo will be the more motivated team.
The Bulls have had a nice season despite losing two of three down the stretch and getting mauled by Ohio State and Baylor in their first two games. In between, Buffalo went on a run of seven straight wins to lock up the second bowl appearance in school history and first since the 2008 Turner Gill led team. The Aztecs had a similar season to Buffalo, starting the year 0-3 including a loss to I-AA Eastern Illinois before winning seven of eight and finally getting crushed at UNLV in their finale. SDSU goes bowling for the fourth straight year, staying home twice and playing in New Orleans. That said, one has to wonder how excited the Aztecs are to be in frigid Boise. I think the difference in this bowl will be the physicality of the MAC team. San Diego State hasn't fared well against big imposing outfits and that's exactly what the find here with the Bulls. The Buffalo defense was staunch against its own kind holding the opponents in their seven game run to just 73 total points. They are led by stud linebacker Khalil Mack who will be playing on Sundays. On offense, UB is unspectacular but still averages almost 31 ppg led by the school's all-time leading rusher Oliver and deep threat at wide out ..... Alex Neutz. The Aztecs do some things well with walk-on QB Quinn Kaehler and 2X 1000-yard rusher Adam Meuma but both players production waned towards the end of the year and both were no-shows vs UNLV in a game that the Aztecs really needed to have. Not only can SDSU be bullied around, the Aztecs' special teams are an abomination. San Diego States' PK's are 8-15 kicking FGs and have missed six extra points. The return and cover units are below average as well. costing SDSU key field position. While neither of these two mid-majors are particularly special, I expect the more physical, more fundamentally sound and more highly motivated Buffalo team to win its first bowl. 10* |
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12-07-13 | Ohio State -5 v. Michigan State | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Despite their perfect record, a lot of people don't seem to believe in the Buckeyes. That sentiment has kept this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I believe its also helped us by providing excellent value.
Needless to say, the stakes are very high for both teams. While both ultimately just want to win, it should be noted that an "impressive" win by the Buckeyes would potentially go along way in helping to fend off a one-loss SEC champion in the BCS standings. True, the Buckeyes only beat the Wolverines by a point last week and are now 0-3 ATS their last three. However, last week's game was at Michigan and the previous two games were still blowout wins, as they won by 28 and 25 points. Even with last week's nail biter, which should actually serve them well here, the Buckeyes are still outscoring teams by an average of 28 points per game. They score an average of 48.2 ppg (50 on the road) and allow 20.2. While also impressive, Michigan State arguably hasn't been as dominant. The Spartans score 29.4 (30.4 on the road) and allow 11.7 (13.6 on the road.) While we have to go back a bit, note that Michigan State is 4-6 SU/ATS its last 10 in a dome while Ohio State is 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) in domes, during the same time. Don't forget that Ohio State has now won 24 straight games. Urban Meyer had this to say: ''I feel very strongly about my team. I would take this team anywhere with me. A team that knows how to win and refuses to lose is a special team and this is a very special team.'' Ultimately, I look for Ohio State's superior offense to be too much for the Spartans. I expect the Buckeyes to keep the winning streak in tact and look for them to cover the small number along the way. 10* |
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11-30-13 | Texas A&M +5 v. Missouri | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A@M. While the Tigers have had a much better season, I won't be surprised if the Aggies score the upset here. At the least, I expect them to give the Tigers all they can handle. That makes the points an attractive option.
True, the Aggies got blown out at LSU last week. However, they'd won their previous three games by a combined score of 164-72. For the season, Manziel and the Aggies are averaging 45.6 ppg, good for sixth best in the country. While the Aggies 356.1 passing yards per game is among the nation's best, Manziel can also beat teams with his legs. Josh Dobbs and Jalen Whitlow (Tennessee & Kentucky) both had some success in picking up chunks on the ground against the Tigers - and Manziel is more dangerous runner than either of those QBs. Yes, the Aggies have a few losses. However, Missouri hasn't had to face any of the three teams (Alabama, Auburns, LSU) that defeated Texas A@M. While Missouri won by 14 at Ole Miss last week, the game could have easily been much closer. Keep in mind that the Tigers are still only a month removed from losing to South Carolina. So, they aren't unbeatable. The Aggies are 6-3 SU/ATS their last nine off a conference loss. The last time that they were in that situation, they hammered Vanderbilt by a score of 56-24. I expect them to bounce back with another big effort here, en route to AT LEAST a cover. 10* |
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11-30-13 | Alabama -10 v. Auburn | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. While the Tide are fairly heavy favorites, there seems to be quite a lot of talk about Auburn scoring an upset here. I'm not buying it.
The Tide have been dominant on both sides of the ball. They began the season with a 35-10 win over V-Tech. That was followed by a 7-point win at Texas A@M. Since then, the Tide have defeated all nine opponents by double-digits. Only one of those opponents scored more than 10 points. That was LSU, which got 17. Alabama still won by 21. Both teams have put up big points on offense. Auburn is averaging 39 ppg. Alabama average 39.7. Auburn has averaged 7.1 yards per play. Alabama is averaging 7 yards per play. Its on the defensive side of the ball where Bama really has the edge. The Tide are allowing an average of 9.3 points and 263.9 yards per game. The Tigers, on the other hand, are allowing 22 ppg and 406.9 ypg. While opposing teams are managing only 4.6 yards per play against the Tide, they average 5.7 ypp vs. the Tigers. Alabama has outscored conference opponents by a 39.6 to 11.9 average., out gaining them by nearly 200 yards per game. On the other hand, Auburn has outscored them by a 36.1 to 28 margin, out gaining them by an average of 18 yards per game. While Auburn certainly deserves a lot of credit for an excellent season, the Tigers could easily have a few more losses. I believe that their magic runs out here. Alabama won last year's game by a score of 49-0. The year before, playing at Auburn, the Tide won by a 42-14 score. The Tigers again have homefield advantage and they've had an extra week to prepare. In the end, I don't think it will be enough. I expect another double-digit win for Saban and the Tide. 10* |
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11-29-13 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. This game is very important for both teams. The Bulldogs are looking to remain perfect, hoping to get to a BCS bowl game. The Spartans are looking to ruin that dream while becoming bowl eligible themselves.
Its true that Fresno State has a big time passing attack, led by Derek Carr. San Jose State's QB (Fales) is no slouch either though, arguably the best QB that Fresno will have faced. While Fales has thrown a few too many (13) interceptions this season, the fifth-year senior has also completed 62.2% of his passes for 3,642 yards and 27 TDs. Note that the Spartans' offense that has put up 600 or more yards in three games for the first time in school history. While the Spartans have dropped back-to-back games here, both losses came by six or fewer points. Prior to the recent skid, they'd won four straight. While they've blown out their last few opponents, the Bulldogs have still seen four games decided by seven or fewer points this season. Note that I'm not necessarily sold on their special teams' unit. The Spartans, who have had one more day of rest and preparation time than the Bulldogs, are an excellent 13-4 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. With so much on the line, I expect Fales and co. to bring their A-Game and for the Spartans to rise to the occasion with at least another cover. 10* |
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11-23-13 | USC v. Colorado +23.5 | Top | 47-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. As indicated by the pointspread of greater than three touchdowns, the visitors have had a much better season. That said, I really like how this one sets up for the home team.
The Buffaloes are playing their final home game of the season. While its been a tough year, they're off a rare win, beating up on Cal by a score of 41-24. That should provide some confidence here. I believe that the Trojans could easily be ripe for a "letdown." They're off a huge win and have just gotten back into the top 25. They've also got rival UCLA on deck. Given those circumstances, it may not be easy to "get up" for lowly Colorado. Including an ATS loss at Hawaii to start the season, the Trojans are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they ere listed as favorites in the 21.5 to 31 range. During that time, they're 3-6 ATS as road favorites, overall. I believe they'll find the going tougher than expected tonight. 10* |
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11-23-13 | Missouri v. Ole Miss +3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI. The Tigers come in with the higher ranking and as the favorite. While they deserve respect for an excellent season, I'm expecting to see an upset. The Rebels have only lost one game here all season. That was against Texas A&M and the loss came by only three points. They lost by eight at Auburn. Their only other loss - and their only loss by more than eight points - came at Alabama. The Tigers have been tough against the run, but not so much against the pass, I believe that the Rebels have the passing game to take advantage of that weakness. Missouri gives up 274.9 yards per game through the air. Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace averages 266.4 passing yards per game. The Tigers get their starting QB (Franklin) back in the starting lineup. Franklin was having an excellent season before he got hurt in the Georgia game, throwing for better than 1500 yards with 14 TD passes against only three INTs. That said, Franklin hasn't started in four games and now he's on the road in what figures to be a very hostile environment. While Pinkel says he "looks great," I won't be surprised to see some effects from the layoff. It should be noted that even if Franklin plays at his best, there can sometimes be a little bit of a letdown from the rest of the team - when a "star" returns. Its not always the "boost" that most assume. Often, players give a little bit extra when the star (or #1 QB) is out, to try and help out the replacement and do their best to win without him. Then, when the star returns, the other players (subconsciously) will "relax," if only slightly. While the Rebels may not be an "upper tier" SEC team, they're still good enough to be ranked in the top 25 in the country overall. In fact, the Rebels have won four straight including a win over LSU - the Tigers were ranked #6 at the time. Last week, the Rebels racked up 751 yards, en route to a 51-21 rout of Troy. While the Trojans admittedly aren't very good, that type of blowout should give the Rebels plenty of confidence here. I'll gladly take whatever points are being offered but as stated earlier, I expect an upset. 10* |
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11-23-13 | Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Commodores come in as the hotter team. They're also off a big win in last year's game. However, that was at Vanderbilt. The Vols, who are back at home now, have still dominated the rivalry over the years.
While any game in this rivalry is big for both teams, I believe this game will mean more to the Vols. Yes, the Vols have a poor record and are off some bad losses. However, lets keep in mind that this team has played a killer schedule. They've taken on the likes of Oregon, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn. Lets also remember that the Vols beat South Carolina and nearly (should have) beat Georgia. While the Commodores are no slouches, I still believe they represent a step down in class from the recent teams that the Vols have faced. A win here - and a win next week at Kentucky - and the Vols can still become bowl eligible. The Vols should be refreshed, having had last week off. Yes, the Commodores deserve some credit for being Florida. However, lets also keep in mind that they got outgained by a 344-183 margin in that game. This is the final home game for the Vols' senior class. They've had a rough time but can change their history by going out by winning their last two games and becoming bowl eligible. The only previous time that the Vols played with two week's rest in between games this season was when they beat South Carolina. I successfully backed the Vols in that game and I expect Jones to have them ready to go once again. 10* |
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11-21-13 | Rice v. UAB +19.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. Recent results have created a very large number for this one. While I respect the Owls, I believe this line is a little too high.
Rice is off a blowout win. However, that was at home. The Owls' last road game resulted in a 28-16 loss. UAB is off back-to-back blowout losses. However, those were both on the road. The Blazers did also lose their last home game. But, that loss came by only a field goal. Their only other home loss came by just 14 points. Rice is 3-3 when playing away from home. Only one of those victories came by greater than six points though. I believe the short turn-around will favor the home team. When asked about playing on a short week, UAB coach Garrick McGee noted: "You lose a couple of days of preparation. In the offseason we spent some time on Rice, using last year |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on TOLEDO. As you're likely aware, this is a very big game for both of these teams. With a victory, Northern Illinois can clinch at least a share of the Mid-American Conference West Division title. If the Rockets win, however, there would be a 3-way tie, with Ball State.
While the Huskies have dominated this conference in recent years, I believe that Toledo's homefield advantage will prove significant this evening. Northern Illinois coach Carey had this to say of the Glass Bowl: "It's going to be a hostile environment. It's going to be Wednesday. It's going to be a night game. It's an 8:00 p.m. kickoff, so it's going to be cold. I'm sure it's going to be windy |
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11-16-13 | Houston v. Louisville -15 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both these teams were handed a loss by UCF. In both cases, I was on the Knights. I went against Louisville when the Knights upset them 38-35. I also went against Houston when the Knights defeated them last week. Unfortunately, UCF won but didn't do enough to cover the spread in that one.
In my opinion, one significant difference in the two UCF losses, is that Houston's loss came last week while Louisville has had ample time to "recover." The Cardinals have won their last two games by a combined score of 65-13. While neither team has faced a difficult non-conference schedule, I believe the Cardinals are better on both sides of the ball. Houston averages 38.1 points per game and 470.3 yards. The Cougars average 6.3 yards per play. On the road, the number of points dips to 35. Louisville averages 38.4 ppg and 481.2 ypg. The Cardinals average 7.3 yards per play. At home, all the numbers improve with the points per game improving to an impressive 44.8. Its on the defensive side of the ball where the Cards really have the the advantage though. Houston allows 22 points and 426.7 yards per game. Louisville, on the other hand, allows 10.6 points per game and 244 yards. I expect the Cards, who have had an extra day's rest, to make a statement. 10* |
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11-16-13 | Georgia +4 v. Auburn | Top | 38-43 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. This is the oldest rivalry in the south and after all the years (116) of playing each other, the series is tied 54-54-8. There's no denying that Auburn has been much better against the point spread than Georgia this season. The Tigers also have a better SU record than the Bulldogs. That said, I'm not convinced that they're the better squad.
While the Bulldogs went through a bit of a tough spell in October, they're back on track now. They've dealt with some major injuries this season, something that has been an ongoing issue. Still, they're starting to get a few guys back and they're still loaded. Last week's 45-6 blowout of Appalachian State figures to have them full of confidence. True, Auburn handled Tennessee more easily than Georgia did. However, lets not forget that Georgia defeated LSU, a team which handed Auburn its lone loss. While both offenses have proven to be potent, I believe the Bulldogs have been a little better defensively. They're allowing 367 yards per game, compared to Auburn's 394.4 per game. Georgia holds opponents to 5.2 yards per play, just 4.2 its last three games. Auburn allows 5.5 yards per play. While the differences may not seem all that significant, keep in mind that Georgia has had to face Clemson, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida. Auburn has had to face Texas A@M and Ole Miss. (As noted, both also faced LSU and Tennessee.) So, the Bulldogs have arguably faced a greater number of high quality opponents. The Tigers have admittedly been an excellent running team. The Bulldogs have been tough against the rush though. Only South Carolina gained more than 200 yards against them on the ground. Overall, they rank 4th in the SEC against the run. I believe the Tigers will be forced to throw more often than they normally like to and that may lead to some mistakes. The Bulldogs, who have won 11 straight November games, have played five games which were decided by four or fewer points, four of those decided by a field goal. I believe that all the Bulldogs' "big" and "close" game experience will serve them well here. I'll take the points but I look for Georgia to score the "upset," killing any thoughts Auburn fans may have had about beating Alabama and sneaking into the title game. *10 |
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11-13-13 | Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. There have been some big games in the MAC Conference recently but this is arguably the biggest of the bunch. Northern Illinois is undefeated, ranked nationally, looking to take complete command of the MAC, and make a return to a BCS bowl game. Ball State is 9-1 on the season, 7-0 its last seven, looking to spoil the Huskies' dreams and win the MAC.
The game is so big that Michigan coach Brady Hoke and ESPN writer Jason Whitlock, both of whom attended Ball State, kicked in $10,000 to help bus Cardinals' students to attend. Boasting the longest home winning streak in the nation and led by a star QB, the Huskies are certainly worthy of respect. That said, the Cardinals have also proven to be worthy of respect. Indeed, they've won 15 of their last 16 regular season games. While they deserve some credit for beating a pair of Big Ten teams at the beginning of the season, keep in mind that those two teams (Iowa and Purdue) are currently a combined 7-12, 3-8 in Big-Ten play. So, it wasn't like they beat an "elite" Big-Ten team. Beating Eastern Illinois could be considered an "accomplishment" but keep in mind that the Huskies did so by only four points. Ball State has beaten a solid Toledo team, arguably a more impressive "conference" win than Northern Illinois has to its credit. The Cardinals also visited Virginia and hammered the Cavaliers by a 48-27 score. True, the Cavs are having a bad year - and are at the bottom of the ACC. Still, they're comparable to Purdue, a team in the same situation in the Big-Ten, that NIU beat by a similar score. While the Huskies have had some extra time to prepare, they're only 2-3 ATS their last five off a bye. Arguably this season's worst performance, an 8-point win against Idaho as a huge favorite, came when they played with extra rest. On the other hand, Ball State is 12-3 ATS its last 15 off a conference win. Last night's two MAC contests were both out of hand by halftime. I look for this one to be far more closely contested and am grabbing the generous points. 10* |
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11-09-13 | Tulane v. Texas San Antonio -7.5 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS SAN ANTONIO. Tulane comes in with the superior record. However, I believe that UTSA is favored for good reason.
The Roadrunners have hit their stride in recent weeks. Last time out, they went on the road and hammered Tulsa by a 34-15 score. In their previous game, they beat UAB by a score of 52-31. On the other hand, after a number of consecutive upsets, the Green Wave came back down to earth last week, a 34-17 loss at FAU. Give the Green Wave credit. They've already exceeded expectations. However, lets keep in mind that they average less than 300 yards of offense per game, surrendering nearly 400. Conversely, after the last two weeks, the Roadrunners are now out gaining opponents on the season, albeit not by a much. They're averaging 418.4 yards of offense per game and that number climbs all the way to 488.5 at home. While the Green Wave average 4.2 yards per play on the road, the Roadrunners average 6.4 yards per play at home. UTSA's Eric Soza, a senior, does an excellent job of spreading the ball around and ranks among the top QBs in the conference. He's already thrown for 1991 yards and 11 TDs, completing better than 63% of his passes. Running back David Glasco II is off a big game, giving him 494 yards and two TDs on the season. Meanwhile, the defense is off arguably its best game of the season. The Roadrunners haven't been around that long, so they haven't been favored that often. They are 5-1 ATS the past few seasons when laying points though. This is a big game for them and I believe their superior offense will ultimately lead to a double-digit win. 10* |
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11-07-13 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. Needless to say, this is a huge game. The Ducks, who are looking to avenge last year's 17-14 loss, are 8-0 on the season. They've got the Pac-12 Championship and a spot in the BCS title game in mind. Don't think that Stanford players want it any less though.
How big is this game? The winner of this matchup has won the Pac-12 title each of the past three years. The loser was handed its only regular-season loss. Had those games gone the other way, the loser would have likely played in the BCS championship game. Yes, the Ducks are again a scary team. However, et's not forget that Stanford has won 13 straight home games since losing 53-30 (to Oregon) in 2011. When talking about this game earlier in the week to a couple of long-time friends, I compared the Ducks to Mike Tyson. I noted that most fighters were so intimidated by Tyson that they'd lost before they even stepped in the ring. But, that as dangerous/dominant a fighter as he was, if someone (like Holyfield) wasn't afraid of him - and was actually willing to bully him back - that he was potentially beatable. (Both have been friends long enough to remember/know that, although I was still young, I bet Holyfield in both Tyson fights - so the analogy had a personal connection.) Anyway, as much as I respect Oregon, I have a feeling that Stanford is its Holyfield. The Cardinal aren't intimidated. Unlike other Oregon opponents, the Cardinal actually believe that they're going to win this game. True, they haven't necessarily been as dominant against their opponents as Oregon has. (That was also true of Holyfield.) However, the lone loss came on the road (by only six) and I believe that some of the close games they've played will serve the Cardinal well here. While the Cardinal did lose defensive end Ben Gardner last game, this is still another very solid Stanford defense, one which is rounding into form. The Cardinal allowed just 10 and 12 points their last two games. While the Ducks are admittedly also very good as favorites, note that Stanford is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog the past couple of seasons. Two outright wins and two losses by a touchdown or less. Going back further shows that they're 7-1 ATS as underdogs, dating back to an upset of the Ducks here in 2009. Last year's game went to OT. I expect another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* |
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11-07-13 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Baylor | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. I've successfully played against both these teams this season. In fact, I did so on the same day. I went against the Bears when they failed to cover vs. K-State. And, I went against the Sooners when they got whipped by Texas. In both cases, I felt the line was too high. I feel the same way here.
Baylor has indeed been good. Scary good. With the exception of the K-State game, they're dominated every other time they've taken the field. However, lets keep in mind that the schedule has been very weak. This is by far the Bears' toughest opponent yet. The Bears did beat the Sooners here in 2011. However, that win came by only seven points and it was the only time that Baylor has won in this series in recent memory. The Bears' schedule gets a lot tougher, starting here. Even coach Briles noted that as far as he was concerned, the season was just getting started. He was quoted saying: "We are anxious to get into the grind time." While I respect the Bears, I believe Briles needs to be careful what he wishes for - and am grabbing all those generous points. 10* |
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11-02-13 | Auburn v. Arkansas +8 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. I've only played on the Razorbacks once this season. That was when they covered vs. Texas A&M back on 9/28. Its a good thing that I've avoided them in their other games, as that cover has been sandwiched by six straight ATS losses, three on either side. I believe that those poor ATS results, combined with Auburn's really good recent ATS stats, have worked in our favor here - and that we're getting very fair line value.
As mentioned, the Razorbacks are reeling a little., having failed to cover three straight. However, those three games came against the likes of Florida, South Carolina and Alabama - and two of the three came on the road. (Note that this is their Razorbacks 5th straight game against a ranked opponent, the longest stretch of an SEC team in more than 20 years.) They've since had a bye, allowing extra preparation time for this game and time to lick their wounds and regroup in time for the final stretch. I believe that the bye came at the perfect time and I expect to see a refreshed and re-energized team. Arkansas head coach Brett Bielema said this of today's game: "It's obviously a big game for us. There's a lot that goes into it. They're a team that's ranked, a team that's done some good things. Obviously an opportunity to be here at home on what should be close to a sell-out crowd, an evening game that everyone should be jacked up for. It will be a tremendous environment." The Tigers are indeed on quite a roll. While they definitely deserve credit for beating Texas A&M, lets keep in mind that they won that one by only four points. (Not enough to cover here.) Their other wins have largely come against mediocre or weak opposition. I believe that they're a good team - but probably not as good as their lofty national ranking suggests. Note that the Tigers' starting QB is expected to play, but that he's a bit "sore" and banged-up. Their only other road game was a double-digit loss. Even with the win over the Aggies, the Tigers are still only 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. They were 2-5 ATS the past two Novembers and they're 0-2 ATS the past two times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Razorbacks won by 17 at Auburn last season and they beat the Tigers by 24 here the previous season. I expect them to come in both confident and motivated and I expect at least a cover. 10* |
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11-02-13 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. I won with the Demon Deacons a few weeks back. Listed as underdogs, they upset NC State. That was the start of three straight ATS victories. This week, however, I feel that the value has shifted the other way.
Syracuse is 2-1 at home. The Orange have outscored teams by a 40 to 22 average margin here, outgaining them by an average of 465.7 to 347. While the victories did come again weak opposition, this can still be a difficult place to play. Wake Forest is 1-3 on the road. The Deacons are getting outscored by an average of 28.7 to 15.7 in those four games, outgained by a 408.7 to 297.2 margin. Going back a bit further finds that Wake Forest is only 4-10 (SU) its last 14 road games while Syracuse is 10-5 its last 15 home. The Orange were embarrassed last time out, losing 56-0 at Georgia Tech. That debacle should provide them with some added motivation here. Note that they've since had an extra week off to recover and prepare. The Deacons were much more competitive in losing their last game. In fact, they lost by only three points at Miami. Give them credit for playing the Hurricanes tough. However, after leaving everything on the field at Miami and losing in the final minute, they're now playing their second road game in two weeks. The previous time that they were in that situation (2nd of b2b road games) this season, they lost by a score of 56-7. While the Deacons will be trying to get coach Grobe his school record 78th victory, I believe last week's loss while have a lingering effect. These teams last met in 2011. The Orange won that meeting by seven points. The Orange know that if they want to make it to a bowl game, this is a game they desperately need. I expect another win and cover. 10* |
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10-26-13 | Texas v. TCU -2 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. I backed the Longhorns in their win over Oklahoma. However, I'm going against them here.
Although the Frogs have had some trouble on the road, they're 3-0 at home. They've outscored visiting teams by an average score of 37.7 to 17. The well-coached Frogs are 5-2 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss, covering the spread in four of those. During that time, Texas is only 4-7 ATS off a conference win. While they've had some time off, I believe the Longhorns may still be patting themselves on the back for finally beating the Sooners. Even Mack Brown admitted that his Longhorns were feeling "..really full of themselves." Both teams can run the ball. However, TCU is better at stopping the run. (The Frogs lead the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing opponents to average just 115.3 yards on the ground.) In last year's game at Texas, the Frogs had a 217-86 edge on the ground, en route to a 20-13 win. I look for them to have the advantage once again. 10* |
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