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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-11-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +20 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
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04-10-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +3 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I am playing on HOUSTON. Keeping Houston down isn't an easy thing to do, as I believe the Spurs will find out tonight after beating the Rockets 110-98 last night. I don't expect them to make the same mistake tonight. The Rockets are 12-8 against the spread against winning teams at home this season while the Spurs are 7-12 ATS against winning teams on the road. 10* Main Event |
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04-08-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 74-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on MEMPHIS. This game has the feeling of a classic letdown spot for New Orleans, who is coming off a big upset win last night over the best team in the NBA, Golden State. |
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04-07-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 205.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* Blue Chip Tuesday. |
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04-06-15 | Wisconsin v. Duke UNDER 140 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Under in Duke Blue Devils vs. Wisconsin Badgers as my 10* Over/Under Best of the Best Monday. |
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04-05-15 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings -2 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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04-04-15 | Utah Jazz v. Phoenix Suns -1.5 | Top | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. I successfully offered a play on the Suns when they played Thursday night and they covered the spread by 11.5 points in a last-second loss to the best team in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors. |
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04-04-15 | Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Kentucky Wildcats as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday. |
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04-04-15 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 139 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 122 h 52 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils as my 10* Blue Chip Saturday. |
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04-03-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings +6.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Another reason I like the Kings here is they have won four of the last six meetings against the Pelicans. Throw in the points they're getting and I believe this makes for a fantastic Friday play where oddsmakers are being far too generous to the home team. 10* Best Bet |
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04-03-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 199 | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies as my 10* Main Event Friday. |
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04-02-15 | Phoenix Suns +11.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. I think the Suns are getting too many points in a spot where I feel they will catch Golden State in a letdown spot. |
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04-01-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -4 | Top | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. |
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04-01-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic +9 | Top | 103-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday. |
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03-31-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* TNT Main Event Tuesday. |
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03-31-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Temple -1.5 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Temple Owls as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday. |
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03-30-15 | Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors -1.5 | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday. |
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03-29-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns OVER 212.5 | Top | 109-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns as my 10* Blue Chip Sunday. |
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03-29-15 | Michigan State v. Louisville +2.5 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
I am playing on LOUISVILLE. I have taken Louisville the past two games and I believe it's going to pay off for a third straight game as head coach Rick Pitino makes his 12th appearance in the Elite Eight. |
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03-28-15 | Notre Dame v. Kentucky UNDER 137 | Top | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on the UNDER. Both of these teams have played under the total in two of their three tournament games so far and I feel oddsmakers have set this number too high heading into their Elite Eight matchup. |
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03-28-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Milwaukee Bucks +5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I am playing on MILWAUKEE. You may not have guessed it but the Bucks actually love playing Golden State when it comes to covering the spread. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 against the number in the last nine meetings including covering the last two times these teams met despite the fact the Warriors won. |
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03-27-15 | Michigan State v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -115 | 63 h 39 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Oklahoma Sooners as my 10* Friday Best Bet. The Sooners have taken care of business in their first two tournament games and now face the Michigan State Spartans in the Round of 16 Friday. No. 3 Oklahoma has shown why it’s one of the most balanced teams in the country, getting it done on both ends of the floor in the NCAA so far. However, the betting market is overreacting to Michigan State’s impressive upset over No. 2 Virginia in the Round of 32 and actually has the No. 7 Spartans set as the betting favorite. We’re capitalizing on this public opinion and taking the Sooners to cover. The Spartans were solid in their win over the Cavaliers but also caught Virginia in a very poor game. The Cavaliers were ice cold from beyond the arc and didn’t play their brand of defense. Undoubtedly, Tom Izzo coached this team up for the upset but it also sets MSU up for a massive letdown in the Sweet 16. Oklahoma plays a much more frenetic pace than what the Spartans are used to dealing with. The Sooners average 71.9 points on 69.9 possessions per game and will look to push the tempo and catch MSU on its heels before it can get set in the halfcourt. The Spartans have had great success stuffing teams with help defense in slower-paced games but won’t have that on their side as the Sooners turn up the intensity. The market shift toward the Spartans and the Sooners’ ability to beat MSU down the floor are why I’m playing on Oklahoma as my 10* Friday Best Bet. |
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03-27-15 | NC State v. Louisville -3 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 60 h 11 m | Show |
I am playing on LOUISVILLE. It seems like everyone kind of forgot Rick Pitino's teams can play some pretty good defense when they want to and as a result we are only seeing Louisville lay a tiny number here. The Cards are playing their best hoops of the season at the right time and despite the national attention, it doesn't look to me like oddsmakers have quite caught on yet. The Cardinals have allowed fewer than 60 points in six of their last eight games and have allowed an average of 54 per game through their first two games of the tournament. Louisville shut down one of the hottest shooting teams in the nation in Northern Iowa last game, winning 66-53. They held the Panthers to 39 percent on field goals (after a season average of 48%) and just 31.6% on 3-pointers after UNI shot over 40 percent from long range for the season. The Panthers also had a horrendous 10 turnovers against nine assists, a testament to the Cards' stifling play. The Cards are switching it up with zones and man coverage as well as pressing at different times. I just don't feel N.C. State wants to get into that kind of game as a squad that gives up over 70 points a game on neutral courts this season. The Cardinals are getting big offensive performances from their usual stars like Rozier and Harrell, but also from unexpected players like Quentin Snider who has 10 and 16 points in the tournament after averaging 3.8 all season. With defense like Louisville is playing right now and production from unexpected places, don't be surprised if the Cards keep going into March and covering spreads along the way. 10* Friday Personal Favorite |
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03-27-15 | UCLA v. Gonzaga UNDER 145 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 59 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Under in UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs as my 10* Blue Chip Friday. The Bruins have shut their doubters up with a run to the Sweet 16 after many questioned their place in the field of 68 for the Big Dance. UCLA earned that spot in the tournament thanks to a late-season turnaround, sparked by a much more controlled pace and efficient offensive approach. The Bruins aren’t pushing the tempo or launching as many shots as earlier in the schedule, which is something that will come in handy against Gonzaga. UCLA tried that run-and-gun style against the Bulldogs back in December, launching 60 shots and hitting only 41 percent while turning the ball over 12 times. Gonzaga came back with an efficient 58.5 percent shooting performance in an 87-74 victory that went Over the 146-point total. Fast forward to March, and oddmakers have set a similar number for this Sweet 16 rematch. The Bruins are a much more methodical team with the basketball and won’t get into a track meet with the Zags, who have blown away their competition with an offense that puts up 79.5 points per game on 52.7 percent shooting. For the Bulldogs, the key to avoiding another early exit will be to clip the Bruins' sharp shooting from beyond the arc and make them beat the Bulldogs on the blocks. UCLA has punished teams from outside in the tournament, knocking down 15 of their total 29 looks from distance. Gonzaga’s perimeter defenders will get their heels above the 3-point line and funnel the Bruins to their big men in the paint. The Bruins' methodical approach and the Bulldogs taking away the 3-ball are why I’m playing on the Under in UCLA vs. Gonzaga as my 10* Blue Chip Friday. |
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03-26-15 | North Carolina v. Wisconsin -5.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 83 h 51 m | Show |
I am playing on WISCONSIN. Beating the Badgers takes a lot more stopping potential national player of the year Frank Kaminsky and I don't feel the Tar Heels have enough to pull off the upset or cover the spread here. Oregon tried to double team the big man, who averages 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 blocks. The Ducks swarmed and double teamed Kaminsky but he still managed 16 points while three of his teammates scored at least 12. Sam Dekker ripped off 17 - 14 in the second half- and is draining at least half his 2-pointers in four of his last five games. Nigel Hayes is another versatile forward who hasn't scored fewer than 15 points in any of his last four games while also grabbing at least five boards in those efforts - not to mention an average of three assists per game during those games. I just don't think UNC can match up in the front court here where big forward Kennedy Meeks is listed as doubtful and will likely be hurting if he does play. The Badgers might just be too much for anybody right now with at least 70 points in seven straight games. Wisconsin can also play some defense with just 56.8 points against this season, which is about 12 fewer than UNC allows. Bettors saw the value here on Wisconsin and pounced early. I still feel this line isn't high enough and UNC won't have the guns to keep up and cover the number. 10* Sweet 16 Game Of The Year |
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03-26-15 | Wichita State v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I think we have some added value on the Irish in this game because most bettors are going to be focusing on the fact they have failed to cover in eight straight tournament games. But don't let that scare you. The bigger focus should be on the two most recent games where Notre Dame just happened to be laying too many against two very good teams but still managed to gut out wins. I'm not sure there are any other No. 3 seeds who had as tough an opening weekend as Notre Dame in facing Northeastern and Butler and I think the gritty victories will give the team a huge lift of confidence heading into the Sweet 16. This is an offense vs. defense battle and I believe Notre Dame's No. 12 nationally ranked scoring offense will prevail. The Irish average 78.2 points per game and they rely on 50 percent field goal shooting and nearly 40 percent 3-point shooting to blow opponents away. It's how they claimed the ACC tournament championship in beating UNC 90-82. Another element I like about the Irish is they adjusted from game to game in the first weekend and have done what they needed to do to advance. They got badly outrebounded by Northeastern 31-36, but they turned things around against Butler. Notre Dame won the boards 36-31 against a very good rebounding squad in Butler, which shows me they are adapting to who they're playing. I think believe we'll see Notre Dame’s best game of the tournament when they face Wichita State and I love that they are getting points. 10* Thursday Best Bet |
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03-25-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns -8 | Top | 108-99 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns are suddenly a bettor's best friend with four straight wins and covered spreads and I like them to continue that trend Wednesday night against Sacramento. |
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03-24-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Sacramento Kings -8 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday. |
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03-24-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 201.5 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Under in Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons as my 10* Blue Chip Tuesday. The Pistons are outside of the playoff picture but that doesn’t mean they’re not jumping at the chance to ruin some rivals’ postseason plans. Detroit has won three of its last four heading into Tuesday and continues its stingy play on defense. The Pistons have held their last five opponents to an average of 91.2 points per game and would have been 2-3 Over/Under in that span if not for an overtime game against Boston last time out. Detroit held the Celtics to 88 points in regulation, then exploded for 17 points in the added frame to push the final score Over the number. We are seeing great Under value with the Pistons in this matchup with Toronto. The Raptors offense is trying to work around a back injury to All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, and is turning to defense to keep opponents honest. Toronto has been spotty with its defensive efforts in recent games, but has allowed 100 points or fewer in four of its last six outings. Detroit doesn’t bring the same offensive firepower as some of those previous opponents, averaging 98 points per game on the season. The Pistons’ defensive prowess and the Raptors’ tighting up on defense as well are why I’m playing on Under in Toronto at Detroit as my 10* Blue Chip Tuesday. |
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03-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Brooklyn Nets -4 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as my 10* Personal Favorite. |
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03-22-15 | Northern Iowa v. Louisville +1.5 | Top | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 35 h 24 m | Show |
I am playing on LOUISVILLE. The Cardinals are in a good place as far as bettors are concerned coming into this matchup and it may not be what you think – it’s on the road and as an underdog. |
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03-21-15 | Butler v. Notre Dame -4 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
I am playing on NOTRE DAME. After successfully taking Northeastern to cover the big number against the Irish, I now believe Notre Dame will win and cover in its next game on Saturday. For those thinking Notre Dame just didn't play well on Thursday, I don't really think that was entirely the case. The Irish simply ran into a pretty good Northeastern team that was being undervalued by oddsmakers and they got the job done. I think this second game is a better matchup for Notre Dame. Butler is a small squad with no player listed over 6-9 and it wins with defense and turnovers. I don't think they'll be able to slow a more talented Irish squad enough to cover the number and Notre Dame is usually pretty good at taking care of the ball. I think Butler may have trouble keeping up with Notre Dame with this one with their leading scorer, Roosevelt Jones, playing on a sprained knee (if he does play). Jones was visibly limping when he returned to the game against Texas from the injury and with Notre Dame's 78.5 points per game, this is a team you need all your scorers for. Notre game is shooting an awesome 51.2 percent on field goals on the season and 39.2 percent from downtown, which is significantly better than Butler in both areas. One of the spots that could also really hurt Butler is free throw shooting where it drains shots at just 68.1 percent. Notre Dame isn't known for letting teams get to the line too often and I feel that could be a key difference in them getting Notre Dame its sixth covered spread in seven games. 10* personal fav |
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03-21-15 | Arkansas +4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Arkansas Razorbacks as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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03-21-15 | Phoenix Suns +8.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns have quietly turned into a scorching hot bet and that has flown under the radar because of their straight up record. |
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03-20-15 | Davidson v. Iowa -2 | Top | 52-83 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show |
I am playing on IOWA. Davidson is one of those teams that poolies love to pencil in on their brackets before tourney time but I feel Iowa is the better squad and will move on from this matchup. |
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03-20-15 | Oklahoma State +1.5 v. Oregon | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. You don't often see revenge or redemption as a key factor in an early round NCAA matchup but I think it will be a big element for Oklahoma State in this game. |
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03-19-15 | Eastern Washington v. Georgetown -7 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 76 h 42 m | Show |
I am playing on GEORGETOWN. Eastern Washington seems to be one of the more popular upset picks heading into March Madness but I'm not buying it. |
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03-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns -1 | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns haven't played since Sunday and enter this game fully rested and prepared. I think they'll earn a valuable win against the team one spot ahead of them in the chase for the final playoff spot. Phoenix has the toughest closing stretch of schedule of any team in the NBA where only two of its opponents own sub-.500 records. So games at home with this kind of rest and preparation time are ones the Suns can't afford to lose. Besides the prep time and home court, one big reason I like the Suns is the Pelicans enter this one shooting on the cold side from 3-point range. They went 8-of-25 against the Bucks last game and just 6-of-22 against the Nuggets two games ago. Another reason I like Phoenix is the Suns have won four of the last five meetings straight up against the Pelicans for a 3-2 against the spread record. The Pelicans won the only meeting this year 110-106, but I think the Suns learned from that meeting. With Brandon Knight's status in doubt, hobbled on an injured ankle, the Suns may go with a bigger lineup than usual. I believe that's a better way to go against a bigger Pelicans squad and with Phoenix shooting slightly better from 3-point range right now, I think the Suns manage to pull this one out. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-19-15 | Wofford v. Arkansas UNDER 137.5 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 75 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Under in Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Wofford Terriers as my 10* Thursday Blue Chip. |
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03-19-15 | UCLA +3.5 v. SMU | Top | 60-59 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins have taken a lot of flak for even being named to the tournament but that gives them a little extra from oddsmakers in my opinion. |
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03-18-15 | Boston Celtics v. Oklahoma City Thunder -7 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. Boston may be on a hot run overall right now with five straight wins, but win it comes to playing the Thunder, the Celtics are nothing but ice cold. |
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03-18-15 | Arizona State +3.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. Under just about any other circumstance this season, I don't believe there's any way UConn would only be favored by only a few points at home against an Arizona State squad. |
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03-17-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Clippers -9.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
I am playing on the CLIPPERS. The Clippers are simply a more talented team than the Hornets and I feel they’ll cover here on home court. |
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03-17-15 | UTEP +6 v. Murray State | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
I am playing on UTEP. What is often the biggest factor in the NIT tournament is one that will never show up on a stats sheet or box score. It's the motivation factor. |
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03-16-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Miami Heat +4 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on the HEAT. I think we have an inflated line here with what I perceive to be a public perception that leans to have LeBron’s Cavs having a big showing against his former team. |
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03-16-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197 | Top | 117-98 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
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03-16-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I am playing on WASHINGTON. I feel the Wizards are getting a great line here, maybe in part because the Blazers blew out a couple of bad teams in their most recent games. |
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03-15-15 | New York Knicks v. Phoenix Suns OVER 196 | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns as my 10* Blue Chip Sunday. The Phoenix Suns have hit a bit of a power outage on offense in recent games. For a team that ranks fourth in the NBA in scoring, averaging 104.6 points per contest, the Suns have been out of sorts after putting up just over 92 points per game in their last eight games. Phoenix will be hungry to get that scoring attack back on track and has the perfect opponent in the New York Knicks Sunday. The Knicks will be dogging it on defense after coming off a busy night against the Golden State Warriors Saturday. New York entered that challenge allowing 101 points per game and will take the court in Phoenix for its third game in four nights Sunday. The Suns aren’t a defensive brick wall either. Phoenix gives up 104.5 points a night and has watched opponents do damage from distance. The Suns gave up eight 3-pointers to the Atlanta Hawks in their most recent outing and take on a Knicks offense that doesn’t have many strengths – save for an ability to fill it up from outside. New York was 9 for 18 in its win over the Lakers and is shooting a collective 43.2 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games, heading into Saturday. The Suns kick starting their offense against a tired defense and the Knicks ability to light it up from downtown are why I’m playing on the Over in New York at Phoenix as my 10* Blue Chip Sunday. |
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03-15-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -1.5 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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03-15-15 | Connecticut v. SMU -2.5 | Top | 54-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
I’m playing on the SMU Mustangs as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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03-15-15 | Connecticut v. SMU UNDER 126 | Top | 54-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Under in SMU Mustangs vs. UConn Huskies as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Mustangs have maintained their place atop the AAC all season thanks to an elite defense that ranks 29th in the country, giving up just 59.9 points on 38.1 percent shooting. Southern Methodist locked down a very talented Temple team to just 56 points in Saturday’s semifinal win, limiting the Owls to 29 percent shooting, including a 4-for-24 night from beyond the arc. The Mustangs do a good job limiting the 3-ball, with foes shooting only 33 percent from distance against SMU. That will come in handy against a Connecticut team that has relied on big 3-pointers to fuel another improbable postseason run. UConn has also been sound defensively, especially versus Tulsa, which shot just 29.6 percent in that 47-42 loss. The Huskies could play their way into the NCAA tournament with a victory Sunday and have gone 18 for 46 from 3-point range in the first two games of the tournament – 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Huskies got five of those 3-balls from standout Ryan Boatright Saturday. As Boatright goes, so does UConn, and the Mustangs will be keeping a close tab on him in Sunday’s title game, not allowing him to get hot from deep. Connecticut has played Under the total in both AAC tournament games and the Mustangs are coming off an Under win in the victory against Temple. These schools went Over the total in both previous meetings this season but we expect this game to have that tight and grinding playoff style we’ve seen so far in this tournament. The Mustangs’ defense and ability to shut down the 3-pointer and the Huskies’ current Under trend are why I’m playing on the Under in SMU vs. UConn as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. |
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03-14-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 193.5 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Blue Chip Saturday. |
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03-14-15 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 45-43 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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03-14-15 | VCU +3 v. Davidson | Top | 93-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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03-13-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Dallas Mavericks -1.5 | Top | 99-129 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have been in a funk recently, which means we're dealing with a small spread here, but I think they're about to break out of their losing ways with a big win on Friday. |
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03-13-15 | Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors -5.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on TORONTO. I think the Raptors are going to come out on fire against the Heat in hopes of shaking off what is one of the worst team-vs-team losing streaks in pro sports right now. |
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03-12-15 | Oklahoma State +4 v. Oklahoma | Top | 49-64 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Oklahoma State Cowboys as my 10* Best Bet Thursday. |
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03-12-15 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz OVER 188 | Top | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
I am playing on the OVER. Usually when it comes to betting on sports, it’s more about handicapping the game and the teams. In this case I think it’s a little more about handicapping the line itself. |
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03-11-15 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 207 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on the UNDER. Portland is seeing its highest total in 11 games Wednesday night and I think that gives some great value in taking the ‘under’ here. |
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03-11-15 | Rutgers v. Minnesota -10 | Top | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
I am playing on MINNESOTA. There is no way around this one – Rutgers is just plain horrible and I think the Scarlett Knights will be happy to be put out of their misery on Wednesday. |
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03-10-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Brooklyn Nets -3 | Top | 111-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on BROOKLYN. There are two main factors I like here in taking the Nets and those are that the Nets catch the Pelicans in a back-to-back spot and Tyreke Evans is expected to miss tonight's game for New Orleans. |
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03-09-15 | Portland +8 v. BYU | Top | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
I am playing on PORTLAND. I think the Pilots are being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here in the WCC tournament contest in Las Vegas. Portland is smaller than just about everybody and it faces a BYU squad that comes in on a seven-game winning streak. But BYU also enters on a one-game against-the-spread losing streak and I think that’s because the Cougars are overvalued heading into this tournament. BYU comes into Las Vegas a little overconfident after a win over Gonzaga just before the tourney and the Cougs needed some late heroics to pull past inferior Santa Clara in the tournament opener. The Pilots, meanwhile, are coming off possibly their best game of the season. Portland played some fantastic team basketball and held a very good St. Mary’s squad to just 30.2 percent shooting in a 69-52 thrashing in their tournament opener. The Pilots held the Gaels to just 2-of-16 shooting from 3-point land and four Pilots finished in double figures as they shared the ball around the court for great looks at the hoop. I think we may be looking at a dangerous Portland team that could storm its way to the finals of this event if it keeps playing like it did Saturday. I especially like the Pilots Monday night when they are getting this many points on a neutral court. 10* Main Event |
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03-09-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -3 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on MEMPHIS. In this battle of division leaders I’m going to take the team that’s better on defense and in my opinion is playing on fresher legs. The Grizzlies own the best scoring defense in the league with just 95.6 points against per game and I love taking a strong defensive team against a team playing on jello legs. That’s how I expect the Bulls to come into this game in what will be their fourth game in five nights in one of their worst stretches of schedule of the season. It’s not just the number of games in that short stretch, it’s the quality of opponents. Chicago will have faced the Wizards and Pacers on back to back nights followed by the Spurs and Grizzlies on back to back nights by the time it’s over with just one day of rest in between. And the Bulls aren’t exactly the greatest on short rest. They are just 7-10 against the spread this season on zero rest, their worst spot in terms of days rest this campaign. While the Grizzlies are also playing their sixth game in eight days, I also like the fact the away team has won and covered the spread in the last four meetings between these squads. And I feel the Grizz have more depth and can handle tough stretches of schedule a little bit better. The addition Jeff Green, who was acquired in a three-team trade in January, is a big reason why. They are 18-7 since he switched squads and 15-6 when he starts. Green gives the Grizzlies a little more depth down low and in transition and I think it will give the Bulls a look they haven’t seen before or will be able to handle on Monday in this tough spot. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-08-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 201.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on the OVER. I believe most bettors will be looking to take the under in this contest with two depleted teams on the court. But I think that just gives us more value in taking the 'over'. Dallas has been missing Devin Harris and Chandler Parsons lately, which has resulted in some serious shooting woes. That's in no small part because Parsons' long range sniping abilities tend to open up the floor for everyone else. The Lakers, meanwhile, are missing a grocery list of players and while that may help keep totals low, I think bettors also tend to overlook the fact that also tends to mean suffering on defense. But who am I kidding? The Lakers have been one of the most disgraceful teams on defense all season and I don't think that's about to change anytime soon. I love that Parsons is expected to return for Dallas on Sunday and is listed as probable (but keep a close eye on the injury report through the day). Parsons should help the Mavs get back to some easier buckets and the numbers show they don't much like it when he's out - the under is 9-0 in the games Parsons has missed this season. Parsons also loves to beat up on the woeful Lakers, scoring 21.0 points while shooting 61.8 percent in his last four road games against L.A. But once again - who am I kidding? Everybody loves to beat up on the Lakers. The Mavs actually exploded for the most points they've scored in a game in five years when they beat L.A. 140-106 in November. That one went over the total by 31 points and this total is pegged at much lower. 10* Main Event |
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03-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -1 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. If the Pistons have any hope of making the playoffs ,Charlotte is a team they can’t afford to lose to and I think they’ll come up with a big effort here at home on Sunday. The Pistons trail the eighth and final playoffs spot by just four games and they trail the Hornets by 4.5 games. There are six teams fighting for the last couple of spots right now and beating those teams on home court should bring out some desperation in this Detroit squad that has had a roller coaster ride of a season. I think oddsmakers are underestimating the Pistons here in setting a tiny spread. I feel they’ve been adjusting with a new look in the back court with the addition of Reggie Jackson back there and their transition woes showed up on their recent three-game road trip. The Pistons lost three in a row – albeit they covered in two of those despite getting only a small handful of points – and the thing I like is that it was cold shooting that cost them. Detroit is still getting great looks at the hoop and plenty of solid chances to score and I think the cold shooting will turn around as soon as the team is back at home on Sunday. Jackson is averaging 15.8 points and 7.0 assists and is helping to open up the floor through his first six games with his new club. The problem is that he’s shooting just 36.7 percent. I believe we’ll see things heat up Sunday afternoon. The Pistons hammered Charlotte by 28 points last month in the only meeting of the season and I think the Hornets will struggle again here in a game where I feel oddsmakers are giving us a soft line. 10* NBA Personal Favorite |
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03-08-15 | Penn State v. Minnesota -8.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on MINNESOTA. I love the Gophers in this early Sunday afternoon contest for a few key reasons and two of them are that it’s Senior Day and that it’s a must-win situation for Minnesota. Five seniors will play their final home game on Sunday, where the Gophers typically look like a much better team compared to their play on the road (they are 7-7 ATS at home versus 4-8 ATS at home this season). I’m expecting a crowd that will push the decibel levels in a contest that will be featured on the Big Ten Network, especially considering Minnesota will clinch a spot in the Big Ten tournament with a victory here after Northwestern fell to Iowa on Saturday. This crowd will be especially hungry for the W against a Penn State squad that beat Minnesota in the first meeting of the season back in January. If the Gophers show up, I really don’t anticipating them having much trouble with the Lions. Penn State has chosen the closing stretch to play its worst basketball of the season and the Nits have now lost six in a row and failed to cover in five of those. Penn State has been a special kind of bad on the road lately too, failing to score even 60 points in any of its last four road outings. I think the Lions will struggle mightily against a Minnesota squad that ranks fourth in the nation in steals per game (9.8) and fifth in turnover margin (5.0) this season. 10* Breakfast Club |
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03-07-15 | Duke v. North Carolina -1 | Top | 84-77 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
I’m playing on the North Carolina Tar Heels as my 10* Main Event Saturday. |
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03-07-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 198.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves as my 10* Blue Chip Saturday. |
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03-07-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers +10 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. Philadelphia plays host to the Atlanta Hawks, who are coming off a massive win over the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night. We see major letdown potential from the Hawks in this overnight trip to Philly. And with oddsmakers handing over a truck load of points, this should play out as an easy cover for a Sixers team that has covered in back-to-back games heading into the weekend. The 76ers fell short against the Utah Jazz Friday, losing 89-83 at home, but did manage to cover the 7.5-point spread. Philadelphia played Atlanta tough in its last meeting, losing 91-85 as a 16-point road underdog and seems to rise to the occasion against the NBA’s elite. It’s coming off solid efforts versus Oklahoma City, Toronto, and even stood toe-to-toe with Golden State last month. The Hawks have played three straight games against tough opposition and will be looking to catch their breath against the lowly Sixers Saturday. Before the win over Cleveland, Atlanta took down Houston and Miami. The Hawks haven’t been a good bet as big chalk, failing to cover in each of their last four games as double-digit favorites. The Hawks ripe for a letdown and the Sixers rising to the occasion are why I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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03-07-15 | Kansas State v. Texas -9 | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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03-06-15 | Boston Celtics v. New Orleans Pelicans -7 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New Orleans Pelicans as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. |
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03-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 201 | Top | 97-106 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Under in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Blue Chip Friday. |
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03-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* TNT Main Event Thursday. |
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03-05-15 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 76-63 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my 10* ESPN Main Event. |
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03-04-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Toronto Raptors OVER 201 | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors as my 10* Blue Chip Wednesday. The Cavaliers, who have been dominating teams on defense in the second half the season, are coming off a busy night in Boston, chasing around the Celtics and their up-tempo offense. Cleveland travels overnight to Toronto where it takes the court against a resurgent Raptors side Wednesday. Heading into Tuesday, the Cavs had allowed an average of just 92.5 points in regulation over their last six contests. But we’re expecting Cleveland to be a step slower, especially facing a Raptors team that can pile on the points. Toronto found its scoring touch in a 114-103 win over Philadelphia Monday, snapping a five-game skid in which it averaged only 90.4 points. On the year, the Raptors rank among the NBA elite on offense, pouring in 104.5 points per outing – fifth most in the NBA. Now that the losing skid is behind them, we expect another solid scoring effort from the Raps Wednesday. Cleveland can also light up the scoreboard and since the defense will likely take a step back, LeBron & Co. will try to pick up the slack on offense. The Cavaliers have put up almost 107 points per game in their last 10 and have failed to top the century mark on the score sheet just twice in that span. James will especially be a tough matchup for Toronto, which doesn’t have a guard big enough to body LeBron or a forward quick enough to keep pace with him. He scored 35 points in his last meeting with Toronto. The Raptors finding their offensive form and the Cavs defense a step behind are why I’m playing on the Over in Cleveland at Toronto as my 10* Blue Chip Wednesday. |
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03-03-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Charlotte Hornets -8 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday. |
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03-03-15 | Maryland v. Rutgers +9 | Top | 60-50 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as my 10* Main Event Tuesday. |
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03-02-15 | Toronto Raptors -7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday. |
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03-02-15 | Baylor v. Texas -2.5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday. |
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03-01-15 | Purdue v. Ohio State -9 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Ohio State Buckeyes as my 10* Main Event Sunday. |
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02-28-15 | BYU +12 v. Gonzaga | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
I’m playing on the BYU Cougars as my 10* Main Event Saturday. |
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02-28-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns -1 | Top | 101-74 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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02-28-15 | Boise State v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 56-46 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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02-27-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 199 | Top | 97-79 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies as my 10* Blue Chip Friday. |
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02-27-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Toronto Raptors +1.5 | Top | 113-89 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. |
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02-27-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | Top | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Best Bet Friday. |
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02-26-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns could definitely use some wins to help their fans and bettors forget about having to trade away Goran Dragic. I think one of those wins will come against the Thunder Thursday night. The Suns have been scoring lately, which hasn't slowed since Brandon Knight joined the team over the weekend from Milwaukee. Phoenix has scored 227 points in the two games since Knight came to town and the Suns are averaging 111 over their last four games. Unfortunately, that hasn't resulted in wins in any of those games but I don't feel the Thunder will be able to keep up with that kind of pace - not without Kevin Durant, anyway. Durant has missed the last three games with a foot injury and is out indefinitely. Although the Thunder won and covered all three of those games, they were against the Denvers, Charlottes and Indianas of the world. Phoenix isn't the No. 1 team in the NBA, but the Suns are better than those squads and they are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. Knight becomes the third former Kentucky player on the Suns roster to go along with Eric Bledsoe and Archie Goodwin. I think he'll be good for chemistry once this team finds some on the court and the Suns have a great starting backcourt with Bledsoe and Knight. I feel this is too many points for the Durant-less Thunder to have to give away on the road, especially against a somewhat desperate Suns team that is going to get more comfortable every game with its new teammates. 10* TNT Main Event |
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02-26-15 | Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -1 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
I am playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols may look like a weakening team with three straight losses coming into this game, but I think you have to look at the competition they've faced and realize this is a great spot to play on them. The Vols lost to three of the top five teams in the SEC heading into this matchup and now they face the so-so Vols, who are just 5-9 in conference play this season. I think they'll bounce back against their state rivals on home court and will be fully revitalized after the tough stretch of schedule. Tennessee is playing its first weekday SEC game on a Thursday this season. Every other weekday game has been on a Tuesday or Wednesday for them in conference play and coach Donnie Tyndall took full advantage by giving his team two full days off before returning to practice on Tuesday. The Vols needed the rest and returned to have a great practice on Tuesday and I expect them to come back and sweep the season series with Vandy. Tennessee won the first meeting 76-73 in OT, which was actually the Vols' last win. Four players finished in double figures for the Vols and Josh Richardson annihilated Vandy with 27 points. I think we'll see a similar story again on Thursday from a fully recharged Vols squad. 10* ESPN Main Event |
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02-25-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on the BUCKS. I think Milwaukee finally covers its first spread as a new-look team since shipping out leading scorer Brandon Knight three games ago. Nevermind the fact the Sixers have the most road losses in the NBA with 24 this season. Or the fact the Bucks have won and covered the last four meetings with them. Those are nice-to-haves but the Bucks are starting to find a little more comfort with their new teammates and a big reason I like Milwaukee to win handily against the Sixers is turnovers. The Bucks have been shooting themselves in the foot lately with bad turnovers, including 24 against the Hawks two games ago. Why that could be a positive here is that I don’t think Milwaukee will be as penalized by any turnovers it makes Wednesday night against the Sixers because the Sixers cough the ball up more than anyone in the NBA at an average of 18.5 times per game. The Bucks may even get a chance to show off new point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who is expected to play after missing his first three games with his new team with a toe injury. Carter-Williams is a big, do-everything kind of point guard and I think he can get this Bucks offense rolling again after they failed to reach 90 points in any of the three games since they traded Knight. Milwaukee has only lost three games in a row once this season, which was in early December. I don’t anticipate that pattern repeating itself Wednesday against a Sixers team that has lost its last 10 road outings. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -3 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on the ROCKETS. Houston has won its last two games by an average of 16.5 points, taking their backers to the ticket window to collect both times. I like them to continue their moneymaking efforts in a revenge situation at home against the Clippers tonight. The Clippers have won and covered in six straight meetings against Houston which includes two meetings this season. League-leading scorer, James Harden, had a combined 25 points in those two games in what were two of his worst shooting performances of the season and I think we’ll see him a little extra motivated to correct that tonight. Harden is a wrecking ball right now and has been a triple-double threat in just about every game he's played lately. He picked up his second triple double of the season against the Timberwolves last game with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. I think he’ll have an absolutely huge game against the Clippers tonight and lead Houston to the win and cover. The Rockets are on fire at home where they've covered six of their last seven games and have covered their last four against the spread there against winning road teams. Houston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can keep pace with the Clippers, with both teams ranking in the top five in the league in scoring. The Rockets love to rain 3-pointers with an NBA record 40 games with at least 30 3-point attempts this season. The Clippers don't exactly defend the three-ball well, allowing opponents to shoot 34.4 percent from downtown this season and 36.2 percent on the road. 10* ESPN Main Event |
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02-25-15 | New York Knicks +12.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 94-115 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on the KNICKS. The Knicks may have lost seven games in a row but they are right where they want to be on Wednesday: anywhere but MSG. When you look at the numbers, New York is actually a better team on the road than at home and it's not much wonder. It can wear on a team, taking the abuse from fans, media - and oh yeah, Phil Jackson - while they stink up the Big Apple. Jackson was taking rips on Twitter about his team after it got humiliated on home court by the Cavs. The Zen Master said the Knicks were giving the basketball gods heartburn after losing by 18. Well, New York can thank the basketball gods for road games. The Knicks are just 3-23 straight up on the road this season but are 12-12-2 against the spread. Compare that to 9-19 against the number at home and you can see the difference in value here. As odd as it is, the Knicks shoot better on the road from 2-point range, 3-point range and on free throws than they do overall this season. Boston, meanwhile, is just 13-14 ATS at home and 17-10 ATS on the road. The Celtics apparently don't like playing at home any more than the Knicks do. I think we'll see a big response from New York Wednesday night if the team has any pride left at all. The road team has actually won both meetings this year between these two squads and the Celtics have sloppily allowed at least 109 points in each of their last three games. 10* Best Bet |
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02-25-15 | Connecticut -4.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 60-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
I am playing on UCONN. I feel the Huskies are getting a great number from oddsmakers here and it's because UConn has lost and failed to cover in six of its last seven games on the road. Why that makes this a great spot is because the two most recent road losses came against good teams in two of the toughest places to pull off a road win in college hoops right now - Memphis and SMU. They were tough losses and the truth is that the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season right now with four wins in their last six games overall. Six-foot-seven shooting guard Daniel Hamilton is playing his best and most consistent basketball of the season and was very close to pulling off triple-doubles in each of his last two games. UConn is giving him the ball more on offense because he can shoot from anywhere but also loves to dish and rebound. It's opened up the floor and I feel the Huskies are playing their best team ball of the year. UConn isn't a great bet this year overall at 8-15 against the spread but another reason I like this play is most bettors don't realize the Huskies are a much better bet on the road than at home. They are just 2-7 against the spread at home and 6-8 ATS on the road. It may not sound like much, but I think the way the Huskies are playing right now they are just a much better team than ECU and oddsmakers are giving them a generously small number to cover. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-24-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 203 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Over in Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Piston as my 10* Blue Chip Tuesday. The Cavaliers are starting to live up to the lofty expectations set this offseason, stringing together eight wins in their last 10 outings. Cleveland has posted some big scores in that span, averaging almost 112 points per game in its last five contests and going Over the total in four of those games. Cleveland’s starting five is one of the most dangerous lineups in the NBA. With scorers in LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith, opponents must really pick their poison when it comes to focusing on one star. The Cavs’ depth allows those stars to have an off night and not greatly impact the team’s scoring prowess. The Pistons took some time to fill the holes in their offense when Brandon Jennings went down for the season. But, Detroit is coming around on that end of the floor and is averaging 100 points per game over its last five outings. The Pistons picked up scoring guard Reggie Jackson from the Thunder at the trade deadline, giving Detroit a replacement scorer in the backcourt. Jackson was a slow starter in his Motown debut but should settle in with a few days to form some chemistry with his new team. Both teams have been notorious Under squads this year – Cleveland due to chemistry issues and Detroit due to shooting woes. However, these troubles have resolved themselves and there is tremendous value going against the market perception and playing the Over Tuesday. The Cavaliers’ scoring surge and depth, and the Pistons getting some backup in the backcourt are why I’m playing Over in Cleveland and Detroit as my 10* Blue Chip Tuesday. |
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02-24-15 | Texas v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
I’m playing on the West Virginia Mountaineers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday. West Virginia has a ton of momentum heading into the home stretch of the Big 12 schedule, taking a win over Kansas and, most recently, grabbing a huge road victory over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Mountaineers can continue to puff up their NCAA resume and gain ground before the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tuesday. The Mountaineers won’t be looking past the Longhorns after those impressive victories. Texas has a victory over WVU already this season, smashing West Virginia 77-50 in Austin back on January 17 – the Horns' lone win over a Top 50 RPI team. This is a big revenge spot for the Mountaineers, especially with a coach like Bob Huggins who will use everything he can to fuel his players’ fire. West Virginia shot a dismal 24 percent from the field in that loss to Texas, including a 6-for-20 performance from beyond the arc. It was an ugly game for both programs, with a total of 36 turnovers. Needless to say, WVU will have a much sharper game at home where it averages 76.4 points per game. The Mountaineers will look to overwhelm the Horns’ bigger lineup with their frantic pace that averages 72.2 possessions per game. West Virginia will beat the Texas 2-3 zone back before it can set up and press on defense, getting in the face of the Texas backcourt. The Longhorns depend on the size up front to keep them in games but WVU’s quickness in transition will erase that edge. The Mountaineers out for revenge and ready to run the Longhorns out of the gym are why I’m playing on West Virginia as my 10* Main Event Tuesday. |
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02-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Phoenix Suns -7.5 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns love beating up on the Celtics at any time but I especially like them here where they catch the C's on back-to-back nights after Boston went to OT with the Lakers last night. Phoenix has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings with the Celtics and I am thinking the Suns face the Celtics on some tired legs tonight. Boston's top six players played at least 30 minutes last night and four of those players played at least 35 minutes. Boston lost 118-111 and played some terrible defense, allowing the Lakers to shoot 51.2% from the field and 38.9% from long range. That's two straight games where Boston has lost and failed to cover in games where both teams scored more than 100 points, which is exactly where I expect Phoenix to try to push Boston Monday night. Phoenix has shot at least 50 percent from the floor in 18 games this season, which ranks second in the NBA. The Suns are also the third highest scoring team in the NBA with 106 points per game and I think we’ll see them push the pace tonight. Brandon Knight makes his second appearance at point guard for Phoenix and I feel he could be a fantastic addition in the desert. Knight is shooting 40.9 percent from 3-point range this season, which is an added threat that should help spread the floor for Phoenix and I believe will help them score even more. Knight doesn't mind leading the fast break either with 5.4 assists per game and is a steal machine who can score in transition. I expect Knight to see more minutes tonight against Boston than the 24 he saw in his debut for the Suns and I think he'll spark them to a much needed win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-23-15 | Xavier v. St. John's -1.5 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
I am playing on ST. JOHN'S. I like the Johnnies to claim their second win in nine days against the Musketeers on home court at MSG in a big TV game on FOX Sports 1. Xavier coach Chris Mack called the Red Storm "the most athletic team" in the Big East and he might just be right. St. John's has four players who average at least 13 points per game and D'Angelo Harrison is one of the most athletic in the league. Harrison averages 18.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and can shoot from everywhere, not to mention can play some defense too. Harrison scored 18 against the Musketeers in the last meeting (which is Xavier's only loss in its last five games) but the Johnnies' Sir'Dominic Painter provided even bigger problems. Painter racked up 24 points on 9-of-10 field goal shooting and was a beast on defense with four steals and two blocks. Xavier struggled with that inside-outside threat from St. John's and also the depth problem. Xavier likes to be able to beat teams with its own depth where scoring is balanced and seven players average at least six points. Against most squads in the Big East, that's a tough challenge to overcome over the course of a full game, but not so much for St. John's. The Red Storm have won four of their last five games and are starting to round into their best form of the season as tournament time draws near. I don't think oddsmakers set this tiny spread high enough, especially on home court where St. John's tends to play tougher defense. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-23-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Miami Heat OVER 190 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on the OVER. The last two Sixers games have played over and the last four Heat games have played over the total and I'm sticking with the trends in this one. I feel oddsmakers have set this total a little too low for a Philadelphia squad that's playing on the road on back-to-back nights. Usually defense suffers the most in situations like this and the Sixers aren't playing the greatest defense lately anyway, with 103 and 106 points against in their last two games. I expect Philadelphia to be feeling its way through its next few games after acquiring Isaiah Canaan at the trade deadline. The Pistons have been chasing this guy for a couple years and gave him the start at point guard on Sunday. He scored 14 points, but defense suffered as the Magic were able to work the ball inside a little too easily. Orlando shot 47.6 percent from the field in a 103-98 win. The Magic dominated Philly in the paint, which was in part also due to some thinness at forward. Luc Mbah a Moute missed Sunday's game due to a personal reason and is questionable again Monday and Jeff Grant hurt his back and is very doubtful on Monday. I think it's a weakness the Heat will try to exploit again here and with Philly in flux with a new lineup, I like this one to go over the number for the third straight Sixers game and fifth straight Heat game. 10* Blue Chip |
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02-22-15 | Tulane v. Connecticut -11.5 | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Connecticut Huskies as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Huskies are desperate for a win after dropping back-to-back road games to Memphis and Southern Methodist. Connecticut will take that frustration out on Tulane Sunday, matching up with a Green Wave program that has just one victory in its last seven outings, including a 62-53 loss to UConn at home on February 7. Tulane stunned Cincinnati last weekend then promptly suffered a letdown against Central Florida this week, falling 69-55 as a 7-point home favorite. The Green Wave don’t pack much of a scoring punch, averaging just 64.8 points per game on the season and consistently playing below that bar during conference play, being held to 55 points or less in seven straight contests. The Huskies aren’t the most explosive team on offense either but do have the horses to run up the score, especially with the way Daniel Hamilton is emerging as a scoring threat. The UConn freshman had 25 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in the loss to Memphis. Hamilton - a 6-foot-7 guard - is a tough matchup for even a good defense and should give Tulane fits as he blossoms into an elite talent. Storrs is always a tough place to play – regardless of how good or bad UConn is. The Huskies will have a decisive home-court edge, allowing only 55.4 points per home game (almost 10 points fewer than on the road) and forcing foes to shoot just 36.8 percent in those games. The Huskies hungry for a win at home and the Green Wave’s miserable offensive outings are why I’m playing on Connecticut as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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02-22-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks +4 | Top | 97-86 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Milwaukee Bucks as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The wheels are coming off the Atlanta Hawks' red-hot run, with the NBA All-Star break disrupting the team’s momentum into the second half of the season. Atlanta fell 89-88 to the Boston Celtics before the break and was thumped by the Toronto Raptors, 105-80, in its first game back Friday night. The Hawks have come back to earth and there is value to be had fading the Eastern Conference’s top team. The Milwaukee Bucks are the perfect team to kick Atlanta when it’s down. The Bucks have won four straight contests – picking up where they left off with a victory against Denver Friday – and are an impressive 9-1 in their last 10 overall. Milwaukee’s brand of smothering defense will attack the Hawks' offensive issues and avenge a 90-85 loss to Atlanta in their most recent tangle on Dec. 27. The Bucks beat the Hawks the day before that loss in the opening game of a home-and-home set. The Bucks are giving up just under 97 points per game on the year – ranked third in the NBA – and have limited opponents to just 42.4 percent shooting at home, including a 33.3 percent clip from beyond the arc. That comes in handy against a 3-point-dependent Hawks offense that can’t seem to find its stroke from outside. Atlanta is just 15 for 67 from outside in the last two games – 22.3 percent shooting for a team that sits second in the league from distance (38.5 percent) and knocks down 9.9 3-pointers a night. The Hawks’ ice-cold shooting and the Bucks’ defense taking advantage of a reeling Eastern rival are why I’m playing on Milwaukee as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. |
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02-21-15 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +6.5 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
I’m playing on the St. Mary’s Gaels as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. The Gaels welcome the rival Gonzaga Bulldogs to McKeon Pavilion in Moraga for a game that is always circled for the Gaels. These clashes with Gonzaga often dictate the pecking order in the West Coast Conference and can be the difference between making the cut and getting snubbed on Selection Sunday for St. Mary’s. There is no bigger game than hosting the Zags for SMC. The Gaels have plenty to prove Saturday after getting rolled by the Bulldogs in their first meeting of the season. St. Mary’s was trumped 68-47, shooting a dismal 36 percent from the field, including a 2-for-15 performance from beyond the arc. We expect a much different outcome from the Gaels this time around, averaging nearly 11 points more at home than compared to the road. Gonzaga has wobbled at bit at the top of the WCC and has covered just once in its last five conference games. The Bulldogs are on track for a No. 1 seed in the tournament - if they can avoid a conference loss – and the market is not giving the Zags any wiggle room when it comes to their nightly spreads. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six conference road stops while the Gaels have covered in seven of their last eight WCC contests. The Gaels' big-game motivation and the Bulldogs’ troubles covering on the road are why I’m playing on St. Mary’s as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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