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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-02-18 | Ottawa -6.5 v. Toronto | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
10-Unit Play. Take #371. Ottawa -6.5 vs Toronto (Thursday @ 7:00p.m. est). These are two teams going in opposite directions in the standings. The visitors, Ottawa, are rolling right now, winners of 2 straight and three of the last 4 to move them into sole possession of first place in the East. Against teams not named Calgary, Ottawa is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. They now get to face a Toronto team that has been blow out in two straight games, and have failed to register more then 20 points in all but one of their games (lone win 20-17 vs Edmonton). The Argos are suffering a major Grey Cup hangover and without the services of Ricky Ray, who went down injured in Game 1, look completely lost on offense - so much so, they made are making a switch at QB, benching highly touted James Franklin for career backup Mcleod Bethel-Thompson. They have no running game to speak of as James Wilder Jr. has been held in check throughout the season, mostly because teams are selling out to stop the run since they do not fear the passing attack. Ottawa has an extremely talented defense and gave up just 31 rushing yards to Hamilton last week. If Trevor Harris can keep the momentum going for the Redblacks on offense, Ottawa will have no trouble scoring points with their collection of offensive weapons and beating their in-province rivals and extending their lead atop the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind, Ottawa is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs the East. Toronto is just 6-18 ATS following a SU loss. |
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07-28-18 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Hamilton | 21-15 | Win | 100 | 53 h 30 m | Show | |
7-Unit Play. Take #365. Ottawa vs Hamilton (Saturday @ 4:00pm est). Consider the following. The Hamilton Tiger Cats just got beat up by the Saskatchewan Roughriders. They lost the game 31-20 and their QB, Jeremiah Masoli, threw for just 184 yards. Instead of giving Johnny Manziel a chance to show what he can do, they traded him away and are doubling down on Masoli. Big mistake. If you've watched any of the Tiger Cat's games, they are very poor offensively. Masoli looks very hesitant to make a play and they just can't get their running game going. They've now lost back-to-back games to the Riders, scoring just 18 & 20 points respectively. How in the world are they going to be able to put up enough points to keep up with an Ottawa attack that is one of the best in the league? As long as Ottawa is not playing Calgary, Ottawa will score points. They've put up 40, 28 and 29 in their 3 wins, and just 14 and 3 in their two losses to the Stampeders. Hamilton just gave up 31 to Brandon Bridge and a group of no-name receivers. Ottawa will score 30+ points in this game and will do more than enough to get the cover. Trevor Harris is going to put together another masterful performance against a weak Ti Cats' defense and his arsenal of William Powell, Greg Ellingson, Brad Sinopoli and Dante Spencer will give the Hamilton defense nightmares. The RedBlacks are 6-2 ATS vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS against Hamilton, while the TiCats are just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. |
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07-13-18 | Toronto +10 v. Edmonton | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
3-Unit Play. Take #363. Toronto +10 vs Edmonton (Friday @ 9:00p.m. est). The Toronto Argonauts and Edmonton Eskimos hook up here for the second time in as many weeks. In their last encounter, the Argos emerged victorious 20-17 and covered as 3.5-home dogs. Now they hit the road and are getting six-and-a-half more points? Sorry, but I don't think home field advantage in the CFL is worth 6.5 points. The Argos finally showed up and played a full 60 minutes last game. They put up 353 yards of offense and won the turn over battle against the Eskimos. James Franklin was solid in his debut completing 16/24 for 217 an a score, while James Wilder Jr. finally got on track and churned out 120 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. The Eskimos may have put up a lot of stats like 426 total yards and 370 yards, but they did nothing with those possessions and we don't expect them to drastically improve in six nights by 14 points. Especially if the Argos run defense shows up once again and limits CJ Gable to another sub-40 yards performance. It's tough to beat any team twice in a row in any league, but there is no way Edmonton, with a defense susceptible to giving up points, should be laying 10 to a team desperate to get back to .500. The Argos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win, while Edmonton is just 3-8-2 ATS vs a team with a losing record. |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | 28-18 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 42 m | Show | |
4-Unit Play. Take #353. Over in Ottawa vs Montreal (Thursday @ 9:00p.m. est). The Montreal Alouettes got in the win column last week in surprising fashion. They were able to beat Saskatchewan on the road as 10.5 point favorites. Now they return home and will be without their main pivot, Drew Willy, who suffered an injury setback late in last week's ball game. Fortunately for Als fans, the change of QB will be welcomed as Jeff Matthews will be calling the shots at the line of scrimmage. Not only did Matthews perform well during the latter stages of a close ball game, he now has a full week of first team reps to get familiar with the offense. We expect the Als to get up for this game against an Eastern Conference rival and score enough points themselves to do their part at reaching this total. If things go wrong on offense - we have the RedBlacks defense to rely on as they've forced 7 turnovers already this season. Sooner or later, they will return one or two of those to the house for 6 points. But that'll be the cherry on top. The Redblacks offense has weapons all over the field and are currently averaging 116 yards on the ground to go along with 250 yards through the air. We expect Trevor Harris and the combination of Greg Ellingson and Diontae Spencer to have a monster game against an Als defense that has allowed a league leading 7 touchdowns through 3 games. Don't let the fact that this is the lowest total on the board fool you into thinking this is going to be a slowly played low-scoring affair. Ottawa can easily put up 30 and we expect the inexperienced QB from MTL to perform better than most people expect him to. |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa +7.5 v. Calgary | 14-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
6-Unit Play. Take #371. Ottawa +7.5 vs Calgary (Thursday @ 9:00p.m. est). The Ottawa Redblacks used their Week 1 bye week to study up on their Week 2 opponent, Saskatchewan and then proceeded to lay a beating on them. They won't have the luxury of a full week or preparation when they take on Calgary, but the Redblacks impressed me so much in their season opening win that I expect them to get the job done here and cover the number. Ottawa compiled 459 yards of offense against the Riders, including 114 on the ground. They also forced four turnovers and registered three sacks while giving up none. It was a complete performance. Ottawa should be well motivated entering this matchup with the preseason Grey Cup favorites and while it may only be Week 3, the Redblacks could use this as a measuring stick to see if they have what it takes to compete with the best in the league. The Stamps come into this game after trouncing the Argos but the Argos were always going to be terrible. So take that game with a grain of salt. Yes, they did look dominant, but they played that game with Grey Cup revenge in mind and now they must go up against an Ottawa team that has elite weapons on offense - both on the ground and thru the air on a short week, with limited practice. The Redblacks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in June and are an insane 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, while the Stamps are 1-6 ATS in their last 6 overall. These two teams match up well with each other, so taking the dog in this spot at a line over the key number of 7 is the right play. |
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06-22-18 | Hamilton v. Edmonton UNDER 57 | 38-21 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 1 m | Show | |
5-Unit Play. Take #365 Under in Hamilton vs Edmonton (Friday @ 10:00pm est). The Edmonton Eskimos and Hamilton Tiger Cats both experienced different CFL outings in their season openers. The Eskis fought through weather delays and rallied for a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Bombers, while the Ti-Cats found life miserable on the road against the Stampeders. Now both teams must regroup and find the energy to compete for 60 minutes and try to find a way to win a football game. Edmonton gave it their all last week and I'm expecting a let down spot here for them, despite it being their home opener. The Ti Cats on the other hand know they need to perform much better on defense if they want to have any chance at staying in the game and possibly pulling off the upset. I like the fact that Hamilton is playing their second road game in a row out west. This gives the team time to gel together and I especially like that for a defense that has the pieces to be good, they just need to put it all together. This line opened up at 55 and has not been bet up to 56.5. Good thing we are taking the under in this spot. The Under is 4-0 in Tiger-Cats last 4 games following a ATS loss and is 6-1 in the Tiger-Cats last 7 games following a straight up loss. The under is 5-0 in Eskimos last 5 games in Week 2. |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
7-Unit Play. Take #363. Winnipeg vs Montreal (Friday 7:00pm est). The Winnipeg Blue Bombers got a quick lesson on what life is going to be like without Matt Nichols for the first 6 weeks of the season. And it wasn't completely bad. Despite succumbing to the Eskimos on a last second field goal, the Bombers held a fourth quarter lead before watching it slip away. Chris Sreveler performed admirably in his first CFL start, completing 15 passes for 178 yards and 3 TD's. He did have two picks, but against a highly talented Edmonton defense, that was to be expected. Now he gets to go up against a Montreal team that is very poor on both sides of the ball - and that was shown in their season opening loss to the Lions. The Als were held without a single point for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters despite outgunning the lions and winning the T.O.P. The Als are going to be one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this year, once again and Drew Willy is the reason for that. He just isn't what he used to be and against a Winnipeg team that will be hungry to get in the win column against an inferior team, Willy and the Als will once again find life very difficult to score points. I like enough of what I saw from the Bombers in terms of resilience and compete from their rookie QB. Montreal is not the tough place it used to be back in the early 2000's, so I expect the Bombers to be focused and put up enough points to cover this small spread. Winnipeg 6-1 ATS in last 7 in Montreal, 4-1 ATS in last 5 following SU loss. Als are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss. |
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06-16-18 | Montreal v. BC UNDER 49 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 59 h 3 m | Show | |
4-Unit Play. Take #377 Under Montreal vs BC (Saturday @ 10:00pm est). Both of these teams are expected to be bad this year, so there is no reason to believe that either of them will score enough points to push the final score over the number. The Alouettes managed just 22 points in the preseason and we expect them to struggle in this spot, playing across the country on a teams home opener. The Als have named Drew Willy the starting QB, but they will likely rely on the defensive unit to keep them in ball games and will likely get their wins from lower scoring games. They went out and hired Rich Stubler to shore up the defense and we expect his unit to be ready to play in this spot. The Lions on the other hand will be looking to send HC Wally Buono into retirement on a winning note. Unfortunately, the Lions are much better defensively than they are on offense, so they will also struggle to win enough games to make the season worth noting. The Under has hit in 11 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams at BC Place. Furthermore, the under is 4-0 in the Als' last 4 season openers and the under is 4-1 in the Lions' last 5 season openers. |
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