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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-16-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +2.5 | Top | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The Clippers return home following a seven-game roadtrip that took over two weeks and they were able to capture the finale at Washington to go 4-3 in those games. Los Angeles is 8-2 at home and it will look to get back to the winning following a loss against Indiana in its most recent game at the Staples Center. Surprisingly, the Clippers are just 6-6 against the Eastern Conference but 10-3 against the Western Conference while going 6-3 against the top ten teams in the NBA and those six wins are tied for most in the league. The Spurs have won four straight but none of those wins have come against teams over .500 and you have to go all the way back to November 8th to find the last time they beat a team with a winning record currently, a span of 17 games. Over that stretch, San Antonio went 0-3 against winning teams and on the season it is just 3-4 against the league's top 10. Obviously, the Spurs are a very solid team at 19-4 but I do not think they should be a road favorite here and the line has actually gone up. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, we have a great situation going for us as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered three of their last four games against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 78-43 ATS (64.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (716) Los Angeles Clippers
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12-15-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Detroit Pistons +4 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Despite heavy action on Portland, this line has actually come down which shows a reverse line movement and that is favorable for us here. The Blazers are coming off a blowout win last night over the Sixers as they put up a season high 139 points. The last time Portland scored 130 points, it did so against Utah and came back the next night to lose. The Blazers have the best ATS record in the NBA and that is a big reason for the heavy action but this is a very tough spot with them playing their third game in four nights as well as their sixth game in 10 days. Detroit is coming off a win on Friday and while we missed the cover by a bucket, we will ride the Pistons again in this situation. Detroit was rolling along with a 6-2 run including four straight wins before losing its last three games prior to Friday so it got some of its momentum back. The Pistons are playing with revenge after losing in Portland a month ago by six points as a 4.5-point underdog so you can see the line movement from then to now has not changed much despite the venue change. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game while the Pistons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Additionally, the Pistons fall into a great situation where we play on home underdogs after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread going up against an opponent having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread. This situation is 101-58 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (806) Detroit Pistons
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12-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 210 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
We are playing a rare NBA total here but these will become more regular going forward as we have some solid history to work with plus we have a very good idea of where the linesmakers are starting to shade the totals towards. Sacramento comes in with a 6-14 record as its losing ways continue but at least the offense has shown a pulse as the Kings have gone over 100 points in four straight games. To no surprise, all four of those games have gone over the total and overall, Sacramento is 9-2 to the over when surpassing the century mark. Now however, the Kings are seeing their highest over/under of the season and we are banking on the over run to come to a halt. Phoenix is also on an over run, surpassing the total in two straight games as well as six of its last seven contests. The majority of the Suns games have gone over this season but like the Kings, this is the highest total they have seen all season. The recent over runs on both sides are definitely playing into that but this is the time to hit the other way because of the significant value. Sacramento games are averaging 200.6 ppg while Phoenix games are averaging 201.7 ppg so there is plenty of leverage in this total tonight. Here we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 200 involving home teams after two or more consecutive overs going up against a road opponent after four or more consecutive overs. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, Sacramento is 9-0 to the under in its last nine road games after a loss by 20 points or more while Phoenix is 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games coking off a win as a road underdog. 10* Under (823) Sacramento Kings/(824) Phoenix Suns
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12-13-13 | Los Angeles Lakers +13 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 97-122 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Lakers are 0-2 since the return of Kobe Bryant with the losses coming at home against Toronto and Phoenix and those are certainly not good defeats. Getting out of Los Angeles could be the best thing for the Lakers right now and while the task tonight only gets tougher, I expect Bryant and company to play a solid game tonight in the spotlight on national television. Los Angeles has not lost three straight games yet this season and while an outright win here is not easy to accomplish, we are catching a massive number and one that is overadjusted in my opinion. The Lakers have been double-digit underdogs twice this season and have split, losing at Golden St. but winning at Houston. Now they are catching a similar number with their best player back and coming off a very good game and now playing with two days rest. The Thunder are one of the best teams in the Western Conference as we all know. They are 17-4 overall including 10-0 at home while riding a four-game winning streak, both straight up and against the number. Oklahoma City however has seen its spreads become higher and higher, which is the case for publicly backed teams, as they are just 5-6 ATS as favorites of six points or more this season. The last time they were double-digit favorites at home was three weeks ago when they were favored by 13 points against Utah and now they are favored by the same over the Lakers? I don't think so. The Lakers fall into a great situation as we play on road teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more three straight games. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (813) Los Angeles Lakers
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12-13-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Detroit Pistons -6 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
After a sluggish start, the Nets responded in a big way as they outscored the Clippers by 36 points after trailing by 13 points in the first quarter. It was the third straight victory for Brooklyn which is finally starting to look like the NBA title contender it was pegged as early in the season. Or is it? A win over Milwaukee was unimpressive. A win over Boston was decent but the Nets were catching the Celtics coming off a 41-point win over the Knicks. Beating the Clippers was impressive but Los Angeles was coming off a victory over Boston the prior night so the spot for Brooklyn was pretty favorable. Tonight it is the opposite as the Nets hit the road with no rest for the first time following a home game. They have not been very good following a victory, going just 1-5 in their next game. Detroit was rolling along with a 6-2 run including four straight wins before losing its last three games. The Pistons lost a revenge game against the Heat, were not ready for Minnesota and in their last game, lost a tough one to New Orleans in overtime. We are going contrarian here as the Nets are on a 3-0 ATS run while the Pistons are on a 0-3 ATS run which adds to the value. The Pistons are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games while the Nets are 2-10 ATS this season against teams allowing 99 or more ppg. Additionally, Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite of four or more points while going 5-1 ATS at home against losing teams. Look for a big win from the Pistons tonight in the great spot they are in. 10* (810) Detroit Pistons
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12-12-13 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Houston hits the road for the start of a three-game weekend roadtrip as it looks to extend its modest two-game winning streak in Portland tonight. The Rockets were pegged NBA title contenders before the season started and they seem to be rounding into form after a rough stretch in the early part of November. Surprisingly though, they have played a relatively easy schedule, ranked 23rd in the NBA, even though the Western Conference has been extremely tough. it shows in the records as Houston is 7-1 against the Eastern Conference while going just 8-6 against the Western Conference. Portland is 9-2 at home this season with one of those losses coming against Houston by 16 points just over a month ago. That defeat, coupled with this game being on national television, will give Portland a ton of energy to get its redemption on its home floor. The Blazers are the surprise of the NBA as they currently possess the best record in the Western Conference and not many saw this coming after last season's 33-49 record which saw them lose their final 13 regular season games. They are 10-4 against the Western Conference this season and the offense is leading the charge as the Blazers have scored 100 or more points in nine consecutive games, their longest such streak since they scored 100 or more in the final 13 games of the 1993-94 season. This is the first game in the Rose Garden since a loss against Dallas on Saturday so this place will be pumped. Look for the Blazers to get their redemption tonight. 10* (504) Portland Trailblazers
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12-11-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +12 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
After a surprisingly strong start to the season that saw the Sixers go 3-0, reality has set in and Philadelphia has dropped 15 of its last 19 games including eight straight games on the road. The Sixers have lost seven straight games at the betting window and while that is a streak many will not try and go against, we will as we are catching a number that has been adjusted too much. The last six losses have all been by double-digits which may seem to not bode well for us here but Philadelphia is now getting double-digits and it is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been a double-digit favorite only once this season and that resulted in a non-cover against Orlando to open the season. The Timberwolves are coming off a win in Detroit last night as they led by as many as 30 points. With a game at San Antonio on deck, the attention of Minnesota to this game will be minimal. The Timberwolves have only won once in six games this season when playing with no rest and additionally, they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win including going 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit win. The Sixers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record and they hall into a great situation where we play against home favorites of 10 or more points that are averaging 103 or more ppg going up against an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 125-75 ATS (62.5 percent) since 1996. 9* (709) Philadelphia 76ers
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12-11-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Boston Celtics +6.5 | Top | 96-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The Celtics are coming off a loss last night in Brooklyn as they were not in a very good spot, having just come off a 41-point win in New York in their previous game against the Knicks. Now they return home to face their former coach Doc Rivers for the fist time since he left for the Clippers where Boston is 5-5 on the season including wins in its last three games at TD Garden. The Celtics still cling on to a two-game lead in the incredibly weak Atlantic Division and this is the start of a five-game homestand through the next 11 days. This is the fifth game of a season high seven-game roadtrip for the Clippers and the early results have been average at best. They are 2-2 through their first four games and overall, they are 6-6 on the highway compared to 8-2 at home. This is not the best time for a big roadtrip as depth is now a huge concern for Los Angeles as it is dealing with injuries to J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes and Reggie Bullock. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win while the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Boston is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams allowing 99 or more ppg and even though Rivers is still extremely appreciated in Boston still, sending him out of town with a loss is a huge goal for the Celtics. And that is certainly not out of the question. 10* (704) Boston Celtics
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12-11-13 | Orlando Magic +6.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 92-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
This is the final game of a six-game homestand for the Magic and it has not started out very well as Orlando is 0-5 in the first five games and going back, it has dropped six consecutive games while going just 2-4 against the number. Tonight presents a great opportunity to bust out of the slump and if for nothing else, end at least the non-cover streak. The road has not been kind to the Magic which are just 1-10 but they are 6-5 against the number in those games and that shows the competitiveness we are looking for. Charlotte is riding a modest two-game winning streak and at 10-11 overall, the Bobcats are slowly starting to gain respectability. They have covered five straight games so we are catching an inflated number because of that as this is only the second time they have been favored by more than 4.5 points. Charlotte has been great following a loss, going 9-2 ATS but it is just 4-5 ATS after a win this year. The Bobcats are coming off a big upset win over Golden St. last time out where they scored a season high 115 points and that alone is a great go-against angle. Additionally, the Bobcats are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games coming off an upset win as an underdog. Orlando knows this is a very winnable game and one that it could desperately use before heading back home. 9* (701) Orlando Magic
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12-10-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers -3 | Top | 114-108 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The return of Kobe Bryant did not go as planned as the Lakers lost to Toronto in his season debut as he struggled considerably. I expect him to perform better and for the Lakers to grab a big win in his second game back. To their credit, they played pretty good without Bryant as they went 10-9 in the 19 games he missed and with the Western Conference as tough as it is, they cannot afford to stay at this level. After the Phoenix game, Los Angeles goes on the road for four games in five nights, starting things off in Oklahoma City on Friday which makes this game pretty important. Phoenix has been one of the bigger surprises in the NBA as it was picked by many to finish last in the Western Conference but currently it is sitting in eighth place with an 11-9 record. The Suns own quality victories over Portland (twice) and Houston, but also lost to Sacramento (twice), Utah and Brooklyn so they have been very inconsistent. They have won two straight games which is their fifth two-game winning streak but have yet to win three straight games. The Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. The home team has owned this series with nine straight wins and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (516) Los Angeles Lakers
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12-09-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Washington Wizards +2 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the injury situation for Denver as Ty Lawson is listed as doubtful for this game. The Nuggets conclude their six-game roadtrip tonight after going 3-2 through the first five games. They are coming off a win at Philadelphia on Saturday after losing two straight games and this has been a very favorable roadtrip as not one game have come against a team with a winning record but this is as close as it gets as Washington is the best of the bunch at a game under .500. The Nuggets have won five of their last seven road games but with the return home upcoming, I do not see a fully focused effort here. Washington got off to a horrible start, losing seven of its first nine games but it has been playing much better, going 7-3 over its last 10 games. The Wizards are coming off a loss against Milwaukee in its last game on Friday in overtime and they will certainly want to make up for that poor effort. Washington had won five straight games at home prior to that and at 6-3, it does have a solid home edge considering two of those losses came in overtime. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss while the Nuggets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Washington to send the Nuggets home with a roadtrip split. 10* (706) Washington Wizards
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12-06-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings -3.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
The Kings have played a brutal schedule this season as it is currently ranked second hardest in the NBA. Of their 12 losses, three are against the Clippers, two are against the Warriors, two are against the Blazers and one is against the Thunder. That is a tough way to start the season and they are currently riding a five-game losing streak with four of those losses coming against the aforementioned teams. The other loss over this stretch came in Los Angeles against the Lakers by 14 points so Sacramento will be out for some payback as well as trying to halt its losing skid. The Lakers have been playing pretty well of late as they have won five of their last seven games while covering six of those. The good play however can be lost momentum wise as they have not played since Sunday so while rest is good, killing a good thing could be even worse. While many thought Kobe Bryant would be returning for this game, it has been pushed back to Sunday against Toronto for his season debut. I don't think it makes a difference either way as his presence would be huge but he could also affect chemistry and come in with a bit of rust. Nonetheless, the Kings do not have to worry about that and they will be out to grab their first win of the season when favored as they are 5-0 straight up and against the number when laying points. However, the Lakers are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 road games coming off a home loss and they are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog. I expect the Kings to get their revenge tonight and snap their losing streak in the process. 10* (818) Sacramento Kings
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12-06-13 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 98-130 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Not only does Portland have the best record in the Western Conference, but it has been a covering machine as the Blazers are 14-5 against the number, which is tied for best in the NBA. Now they are doing something they have not done all season and that is laying double-digits. Portland is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season but a much less impressive 7-5 ATS as a favorite including going just 4-4 ATS when laying four or more points. This is as breather alert for the Blazers as well as they are coming off games against Indiana and Oklahoma City while having a game on deck for Saturday against Dallas. Getting 100 percent out of Portland will be difficult. At 4-16, the Jazz have the worst record in the Western Conference but they have been playing their best of the season of late, going 3-2 in their last five games. Utah has been more competitive as well as after starting the season 1-6-1 ATS, it is 8-4 against the number over its last 12 games and a lot of that is due to the poor straight up record, forcing linesmakers to inflate the lines. This is proven by the Jazz going 4-1 ATS in their last five games as double-digit underdogs. The Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record while the Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Additionally, we play against home favorites of 10 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 101-57 ATS (63.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (819) Utah Jazz
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12-06-13 | Golden State Warriors +6 v. Houston Rockets | 83-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
This line is off the board in a lot of places due to the uncertainty of Houston forward Chandler Parson who has missed the last two games with back spasms. Whether he goes or not will not affect this play and his status really should not be keeping this one off the board to begin with. The Rockets are coming off a loss at home against Phoenix on Wednesday which was their second straight loss, the first coming at Utah, which has come after a five-game winning streak so many will be expecting a bounceback here. I'm not one of those however as they could be catching the Warriors at the wrong time. Down 27 points in the third quarter against Toronto, Golden St.. came all the way back and defeated the Raptors on Tuesday to give it its second straight win and possibly give this team some much needed momentum as the Warriors have been stuck in neutral. They had dropped five of their previous six games before that but two of those came in overtime while another came by just four points. They have won five of their last 10 road games but they have competed exceptionally well against the top teams as losses against Oklahoma City, Dallas and San Antonio were by just seven points combined. Golden St. is 3-1 ATS at as underdog of more than four points this season and it falls into a spectacular situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) since 1996. This has the makings of one of the moist entertaining games of the night and it will be that Warriors offense that keeps them in this one. 9* (811) Golden St. Warriors
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12-05-13 | Miami Heat -4.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 87-107 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Miami had its 10-game winning snapped in its last game, a 10-point setback at home against the Pistons and I am expecting a big Heat rebound here. This will be the side of many for sure but it is the perfect situation to be playing Miami as a road favorite and it has thrived in the role so far this season, going 5-2 straight up and against the number. The Heat have been one of the best teams in the NBA coming off a loss as they are 2-1 this season after going 20-3 last season so consecutive losses have been few and far between. Additionally, they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss as well as going a perfect 5-0 ATS following a double-digit loss at home with all of those wins coming by double-digits and by an average of 17.5 ppg. Chicago lost its last game against New Orleans in triple overtime at home. It was the first home loss of the season for the Bulls which opened at 5-0 at the United Center but it was also the first home game with a depleted roster as they were missing guard Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. The Bulls are 1-4 without Rose and they are 1-6 without Butler as well so while the Rose absence is obviously huge, this whole backcourt is depleted. The home crowd energy will be big no doubt but that is the case with every team when Miami comes to town so it is something the Heat are used to. They like the spotlight as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Thursday night games while the Bulls are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game including a 0-3 ATS record this season. 10* (505) Miami Heat
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12-04-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 v. Portland Trailblazers | Top | 104-111 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The NBA's biggest positive surprise is back in action following an upset win over Indiana on Monday. The Blazers improved to 15-3 to keep pace with the Spurs for the best record in the Western Conference. The most surprising thing about Portland's 15-3 record is the fact that two of those losses were blowout defeats in Phoenix so it has lost to just one other team the entire season. Make that two after tonight. Overall, the Blazers schedule is ranked relatively high in strength but it is hard to ignore the fact that of their 18 games, 10 have come against teams with a losing record and three others against teams just two games over .500 or worse. The win over the Pacers was solid no doubt but I do not see another quality win again. Oklahoma City is coming off a lethargic effort last night and that is just fine with us as it shows a likely lookahead to this game. The Thunder won by just two points at Sacramento but it was their eighth straight victory and they should come into this game with a chip on their shoulder showing that the Western Conference championship still has to come through them. Playing with no rest is not an issue as they have covered the lone game this season and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the second of a back-to-back set. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (715) Oklahoma City Thunder
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12-04-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 | 105-98 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
These teams played just over a week ago and Detroit was favored by seven points at home and based on the venue switch, the Pistons should be a one point favorite and that is conservative with a three-point home court swing. So we are getting an exceptional line with Milwaukee here. The Bucks ended their 11-game slide with a home win over the Celtics last Saturday but gave it back with a loss at Boston last night. While the home floor has not been great, Milwaukee has gone 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records and 1-1 ATS against losing teams so the schedule is in their favor tonight as well. Detroit meanwhile has won two straight games including a huge win last night in Miami over the Heat. The Pistons are now 8-10 overall and 3-5 on the road and I expect a huge letdown and going from a road underdog to a road favorite is a big jump, especially knowing that the Pistons lost their only game this season when favored on the road in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Also, Detroit lost in its only back-to-back road situation this season as it lost in Golden St. after playing in Portland the previous night. The Pistons are just 2-5 following a win this season and I expect that negative record to get worse after tonight. This is definitely a team on the rise but it is still a young team that still has not learned how to take away from a big win. 9* (710) Milwaukee Bucks
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12-04-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
We made a horrible play on Brooklyn last night as that team clearly has bigger issues than we believed as apparently that win in Memphis in the previous game did them no good. While Denver did win its seventh straight game, last night's contest was given to them on a silver platter and while the Nuggets are facing another losing team from the Eastern Conference, it will not be as easy tonight. Denver has won four straight games on the road and going back it has covered five in a row on the highway and that is putting a lot of public action behind the Nuggets. This is the third game in four nights for the Nuggets and the lack of rest is not necessarily the main factor in this. It is getting up for four straight opponents that are all at least five games under .500 as Denver played a game against the Knicks prior to this three-in-four stretch. Cleveland had dropped five straight games prior to defeating the Bulls on Saturday and that also snapped a three-game home losing streak. The Cavaliers have been one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA this season as the cover against the Bulls was just their fourth all season and they have not been able to cover two in a row this year. This makes for a great contrarian play here and we have a great contrarian situation to back it up as we play on teams failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1996. 9* (702) Cleveland Cavaliers
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12-03-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Brooklyn Nets +5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
It has been a horrible start to the season for the Nets as they are 5-12 but if there is any good news, it is the fact they are just a game and a half out of first place in the dreadful Atlantic Division. Brooklyn did pick up a much needed win at Memphis last time out and it hopes to carry that momentum back home where it has lost four in a row after opening 0-2. Their six home games are tied for the fewest in the NBA and to their credit, the Nets have played the fifth toughest schedule in the NBA. Denver meanwhile is playing some good basketball as it has won six straight games including three straight on the road. While the Nuggets are hot, putting them in the role of a big favorite on the road is a little overaggressive. This is a 6.5-point swing from their game at Toronto on Sunday and that is simply too much, even if he Nets are a banged up team right now. The starters may have gotten the wakeup call of the benching from the weekend, thus playing with more energy and passion. The Nuggets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record while the Nets have covered six of their last seven games playing with two days rest. 10* (508) Brooklyn Nets
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11-27-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
San Antonio owns the best record in the Western Conference at 13-1 and that is tied with Indiana for the best record in the entire NBA. The Spurs have won 11 straight games and they have covered six of their last eight games heading into this one and those runs are keeping this number rather short. This is actually the first time in seven road games they have actually been underdog and for good reason as they have played the 25th ranked schedule in the NBA. Oklahoma City comes in 9-3 including wins in its last four games. All three losses have come on the road as the Thunder are a perfect 6-0 at home and speaking of perfect, they have won and covered five straight meetings at home against the Spurs with those victories coming by an average of 12 ppg. Oklahoma City has had one more day off than San Antonio has which could make a difference but even more important is the fact that Russell Westbrook rested in their last game so he will be more than ready to go. Here, we play against underdogs that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home win by 20 points or more. This situation is 102-60 ATS (63 percent) since 1996. Oklahoma City is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games against teams allowing 43 percent or less shooting while going 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (720) Oklahoma City Thunder
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11-26-13 | Golden State Warriors -3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 102-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
We are going against the grain by taking a road favorite here but the situation sets up well for Golden St. The Warriors have lost three straight games after winning four in a row and most surprising is the fact that two of those losses have come at home. A trip to New Orleans could do them good however as they swept the four-game season series a year ago with Stephen Curry and Davis Lee having some really big games. Golden St. is 3-4 on the road but two of those losses came against the Clippers and Spurs. It is 3-6 against the top 16 teams in the NBA but a perfect 5-0 against the bottom 16 and that is where New Orleans falls into. The Pelicans are coming off a loss in San Antonio last night which snapped their three-game winning streak. They are 6-7 which is decent but they have played the second easiest schedule in the NBA and have faced only three teams ranked in the top 10, going 1-2. New Orleans is 5-2 at home but has not defeated a team with a winning record on its home floor. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home while the Pelicans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Golden St. falls into an incredible situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 26-2 ATS (92.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (507) Golden St. Warriors
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11-25-13 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
We lost with Memphis on Friday as it fell behind early against the Spurs and while it made a push in the third quarter, it could never get over the hump. The Grizzlies lost Marc Gasol early in the second quarter and unfortunately, that changed the dynamic of the game. They were coming off four straight road wins prior to that and I feel this is a good spot to bounceback at home where they have dropped three of their last four games. Houston has won four of its last five games including a home win on Saturday against Minnesota. The Rockets are just 3-3 on the road however and while they have a slightly better overall record, I do not think they should be favored here. They have played the 22nd ranked schedule in the NBA while the Grizzlies have played the second toughest so that needs to be taken into account as well. Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 100 points or more two straight games while going 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. Memphis meanwhile is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or less. James Harden will miss his second straight game for Houston and that is where Memphis can take advantage with a strong defensive effort. 10* (710) Memphis Grizzlies
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11-25-13 | Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 94-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
After starting the season 2-2, Milwaukee has lost eight straight games while going 1-7 ATS including an embarrassing home loss against Charlotte on Saturday. That prompted head coach Larry Drew to basically call his team out for a lack of effort and he promised changes. "If they're not on the same page, so be it. There will be changes," he said. "I thought we would play with energy and passion. We did not do that. We didn't play like a team and that is very disheartening. I will not accept that. That was selfish play. We're not a good team when we play like that." When players in fact get called out, it tends to bring out the best next game. Detroit meanwhile is coming off a road win at Brooklyn last night which presents a great letdown opportunity tonight. The Pistons improved to just 5-8 with the victory and no matter who they are playing, they should not be laying a number this big. We have two situations on our side as well. We play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road win by 10 points or more, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after eight or more consecutive losses. This situation is 94-52 ATS (64.4 percent) since 1996. 9* (705) Milwaukee Bucks
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11-22-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 102-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
After a slow start, Memphis has found its groove winning its last four games all coming on the road. The Grizzlies last loss came at home against Toronto by 16 points so they will be out to make up for that as well as getting some redemption on top of it. Memphis lost the first meeting this season, a seven-point setback in the first game of the season and in addition, the Grizzlies will be out for payback after getting swept in last year's Western Conference finals. The Spurs bring in the best record in the NBA at 10-1, tied with Indiana, and because of that, we are catching a very favorable line. Memphis has been favored in the last four meetings but now it is catching a point and it comes down to the records but with the Grizzlies finally hitting their stride, they have a ton of value tonight. Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg while going 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Spurs have dropped four straight against the number against teams with a winning record. 10* (512) Memphis Grizzlies
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11-20-13 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | Top | 98-91 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
We won with Washington last night but we will be going against the Wizards tonight as they hit the road for the second of a back-to-back set. Washington improved to 2-2 at home with the Tuesday victory but is still just 3-7 overall and the 1-5 road record has been their undoing. The only road win for Washington was at Philadelphia which started off hot but has lost seven of its last nine games. Cleveland has been off since Saturday when it defeated Washington on the road in overtime. It was the Cavaliers first road win of the season which came after their first home loss of the season the night before against Charlotte. That obviously makes this a revenge game for Washington but backing road revenge in the NBA is something I stay away from. Especially with a team that struggles consistently on the highway. The rest factor is a big factor here as well as Cleveland has been off for a while and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing with no rest. The Cavaliers get back to their winning ways at home tonight. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers
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11-19-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards +4 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Washington has lost four straight games including its last one at home in overtime against Cleveland after blowing a 15-point lead. The Wizards were considered playoff contenders before the season started and while there is plenty of time left, a 2-7 start is not exactly what they envisioned. First and foremost, they need to take care of business at home where they are 1-2 as six of the first nine games were on the highway. This is actually an exceptional spot for Washington as coming off that loss to Cleveland will have them energized and it catches Minnesota in a great situation. The Timberwolves are off to a 7-4 start after a blowout win over Boston on Saturday. The Timberwolves are 5-1 at home but just 2-3 on the road including splitting as road favorites. Minnesota has a game at home against the Clippers tomorrow which puts in a big lookahead situation and revenge situation as well as it lost the first meeting against them this season by a bucket just over a week ago. The Wizards are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games against teams with a winning record and they have covered seven of the last eight meetings at home. 10* (702) Washington Wizards
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11-15-13 | Brooklyn Nets -1 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Brooklyn got hammered on the road on Wednesday at Sacramento as the Nets never led and ended up losing by 21 points as a four-point favorite. That dropped them to 0-4 on the road and they have not come close to covering a game on the highway, losing those four games by a combined 64.5 points against the spread. It is safe to think that the linesmakers have no choice but to keep the heavy wood off of them until they can show they can win on the road. That finally happens on Friday as this one is a big one considering Brooklyn has a game against the Clippers on Saturday and sitting winless on the road, there is no chance they are looking ahead to that. Phoenix lost a touch one in Portland on Wednesday by a point but at 5-2, the Suns are one of the pleasant surprises this season. They are a perfect 4-0 at home and while I feel the winless Nets break their streak, I also think the Suns streak comes to an end as well. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Nets have covered four of their last five after a double-digit loss. 10* (715) Brooklyn Nets
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11-15-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics +2.5 | 109-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
We played against the Celtics on Wednesday as their four-game winning streak came to an end. A slow start for Boston against the Bobcats put them in a position to play catch up the entire game. And they couldn't catch up as the Celtics never had the lead the entire game. That puts them in a good spot here as they welcome Portland which will be making its first trip east this season. The Blazers have played five of their last six games at home and while they have won their last two road games, both came as underdogs and they happened to lose the one road game in which they were favored against Phoenix. The Celtics schedule has been fairly tame but Portland's slate has actually been easier as the Blazers have played the 26th ranked schedule in the league so the record may be even more skewed than people think the Celtics is. Boston is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season and with a west coast trip looming, they will be out to even the record up before hitting the road. The Blazers are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. 9* (708) Boston Celtics
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11-15-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are at least one thing this season and that is consistent. Following their 29-point loss at Minnesota on Wednesday, they fell to 0-6 on the road and only two of those losses were decided by single digits. Conversely, Cleveland is 3-0 at home and while those wins have come by only seven points combined, wins are wins are the Cavaliers are due for a big breakout on their home floor. Enter Charlotte. The Bobcats are coming off an upset win at Boston to improve to 4-4 overall and 2-2 on the road. This is definitely a team on the upswing and while the spot was good in Boston, it is not good here. The Bobcats caught the Celtics on a five-game ATS winning streak and now they catch Cleveland on an eight-game ATS losing streak. That is a streak I love to go against and adding to it is that one of those losses came in Charlotte as the Cavaliers lost to the Bobcats by six points as a 3.5-point chalk. Now they are only favored by a few points more at home and presents us with excellent value. The Bobcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (710) Cleveland Cavaliers
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11-14-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 207 | Top | 115-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
While most will be expecting a shootout in Oakland on Thursday, I am expecting a lower scoring game that should stay below this inflated number. The Thunder played last night which made it three straight overs and they have gone under in four of their last five games playing with no rest. Golden St. meanwhile has gone over in two straight games but those totals were lower than tonight's and note than the Warriors have gone under in all three games this season when the total is higher than 206 which is the case tonight. This has been a very high scoring series as well and that is going to add to the public money on the over and all of this is beneficial to us as the number is inflated based on the public reaction. Oklahoma City is 14-3 to the under in its last 17 road games after scoring 100 points or more five straight games while the under is 7-1 in the Warriors last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Additionally, we have a league-wide situation favoring both teams as we play the under in the first half of the season where the total is between 200 and 209.5 involving teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 48-17 (73.8 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (503) Oklahoma City Thunder/(504) Golden St. Warriors
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11-13-13 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Utah Jazz +2.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Utah let us down in its last game as it was on its way against Denver but a fourth quarter meltdown led to another blowout defeat, leaving the Jazz winless while extending their worst start since opening their inaugural 1974-75 season with 11 consecutive defeats. Utah is dead last in the league in scoring, field-goal percentage and three-point percentage, but figures to have an opportunity to improve against a Pelicans team that allowed season highs in each of those categories against the Lakers. New Orleans has dropped two straight games after winning three of its previous four games and is now 1-3 on the road both straight up and against the number. With games against San Antonio and Golden St. twice, Utah knows this is the last chance to break its slide and it takes place tonight and the drought is ended. 9* (718) Utah Jazz
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11-13-13 | New York Knicks +4 v. Atlanta Hawks | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
It has been a poor start to the season for the Knicks but it doesn't get much worse than their last game as they were annihilated at home against the Spurs by 29 points. That dropped New York to 2-4 overall including 1-3 at home where chants of "Fire Woodson" could be heard. It shows how quickly fans can turn. Leaving MSG for one game can do no harm and having two days off to figure stuff out only helps. The Hawks have won two straight games and three of their last four and while they covered all of those games, they came against four teams not likely to be making the playoffs this season. While New York's start is less than desirable, the Hawks are favored by just three points less than what they were favored by against Orlando and that presents value. 9* (711) New York Knicks
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11-13-13 | Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 v. Boston Celtics | 89-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
After opening the season 0-4, Boston has won four straight games while covering five in a row. Three of those were as underdogs and now the Celtics are laying their biggest spread of the season and that should not be the case as the winning streak has inflated this number as these teams are more even than this number is telling us. Charlotte is off to a 3-4 start which is far from horrible considering the horrid past years the Bobcats have gone through. The Bobcats were at 3-2 but have dropped their last two games, against the Knicks and Hawks, both coming at home and a trip on the road can do this team good. Let's not forget that when Boston was good last year, the Bobcats gave them trouble so now more evenly matched up, Charlotte can go into Boston nowadays and expect to win. 9* (705) Charlotte Bobcats
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11-12-13 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 198.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
We played this total last week which stayed well below the number. We got the possessions and shots we wanted but they just were not falling last Friday as Los Angeles and New Orleans shot a combined 41 percent from the floor while making only nine three-pointers. Tonight we are catching a better number as this is the first Lakers total that is under 200 on the season and a lot of that has to do with three straight unders hitting the window in their games. As for New Orleans, it has also gone under the total in three straight games as defensively, they remain one of the best in fewest shots allowed as 80 has been the highest total the Pelicans have given up. The Lakers are averaging 89 shots per game at home while New Orleans is averaging 86 shots per game on the road and the Lakers defense is not going to be helping much as they are allowing an average of 106.5 ppg to rank near the bottom of the NBA and were outscored 50-32 in the paint and 19-9 in transition in their last game against Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Pelicans lost in Phoenix in their most recent game on Sunday as they committed 17 turnovers and scored only 16 points in the first quarter and no offense is going to overcome those figures. Also, Despite going only 4-13 with three-pointers against the Suns, the Pelicans still lead the NBA with 43.8 shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Lakers are 21-7 to the over in their last 28 games after three straight games where they shot 42 percent or worse. Additionally, the over is 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 games against team with a losing record while the over is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (507) New Orleans Pelicans/(508) Los Angeles Lakers
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11-11-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz +2.5 | 100-81 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
It has obviously not been a good start to the season for Utah as it remains winless, sitting at 0-7 following a brutal roadtrip. The Jazz lost all four games on their current trip and none were close as they went down by double-digits in each. It has been a tough schedule to open the season as Utah has played the third toughest slate and making things even tougher was the fact that five of the first seven games came away from home. The Jazz have been competitive in Utah though as they lost by just three points against Oklahoma City and had a 19-point lead against Houston before melting down in the second half. Tonight presents a great opportunity to grab that first victory. Denver comes in 1-4 on the season with its lone victory coming by a bucket at home against Atlanta. The Nuggets lost a close game on the road at Sacramento to open the season but were blown out at Phoenix by 11 points in their most recent game. Utah's issues have been on offense but that has partly been due to who it has played and tonight presents a spot to get that offense going. The Nuggets have given up an average of 109.0 ppg in the last four games and are among the NBA's worst at forcing turnovers this season at 13.6 per game. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah meanwhile is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. 9* (714) Utah Jazz
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11-11-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -8 | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
After opening the season 3-1, Houston has lost its last two games, both at home against the Lakers and Clippers. While it is difficult to state a game is a must win game this early in the season, this one fits for the Rockets as they need to pick up a victory before hitting the road. The offense has been non-existent during the two-game skid as Houston has shot just 41.3 percent from the floor while putting up only 98 and 94 points. This after averaging 112.8 ppg in its previous four games and while its faces what looks like a tough Toronto defense, the Raptors have not really been tested much. Looking at the schedule shows most of the Raptors opponents are offensively inept and their 93.9 ppg allowed, which is fourth fewest in the NBA is skewed because of that. Toronto is 0-3 against the NBA's top 16 while its 24-point home win over Utah on Saturday is giving it a little too much credit here. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points while the Rockets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games after having lost two of their last three games. The health of James Harden was clearly an issue against the Clippers as he had trouble attacking against them, getting to the line only three times. The time off between this games can only help him. Getting him back in gear and having a clear edge down low gives Houston a big edge in this matchup. The home team has dominated this series with wins in 12 straight meetings. 10* (712) Houston Rockets
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11-09-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5 | Top | 96-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
We played against Brooklyn last night as the Nets lost in overtime against Washington to fall to 0-3 on the road. The Nets may have been guilty of looking ahead to this game as they played pretty poor despite having a big lead at one point as 21 turnovers can be a tell-tale sign of a team not focused in the game as well as putting up a poor defensive effort. You can guarantee they will be focused tonight against Indiana which at 6-0, it the lone undefeated team in the NBA. The Pacers are coming off a win over Toronto last night as they had to fight off an early 12-point deficit to pull away. While the back-to-back games is in play for both sides, this is the fourth game in five nights for the Pacers and even though it is early in the season, it is never an easy scenario for teams and players. The Nets are hoping Paul Pierce can shake his recent illness and show some improvement as he had a season-low four points while sinking just 1 of 5 from the field against the Wizards. It is still up in the air whether or not Kevin Garnett will be taking the night off or not but at this point, it really doesn't matter either way as he is averaging a mere 6.0 ppg on 30.4 percent shooting. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Brooklyn dominated this series last season by sweeping all three games and it continues as it puts an end to the perfect start for Indiana. 10* (706) Brooklyn Nets
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11-08-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers -7 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Portland has somewhat survived the tough early season schedule as it has gone 2-2 to open the season. The Blazers are coming off a 15-point loss against Houston at home in their last game and while we played against them there, we will be backing them this time around as they look to bounce back from that loss. Portland was favored by a bucket in that game and this line is telling us that Sacramento is only five points worse than the Rockets and that could not be further from fact. This is the first of a back-to-back home-and-home so the Blazers will need to take this one before heading to Sacramento tomorrow night. The Kings are off to a 1-3 start following a home loss against Atlanta on Tuesday which includes a loss in their only road game at Golden St. Sacramento has had its challenges on the highway as it went 8-33 last season and it has dropped seven of the last nine meetings in Portland. After losing their last 13 games to end last season, the Blazers have to seize the opportunities when given and the next five games are all games they need to take before another tough part of the schedule comes into play. Here we play against teams that has a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing a team that had a losing record last year. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. Portland is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games after playing a game as a home favorite and look for the Blazers to bounce back in a big way tonight. 9* (524) Portland Trailblazers
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11-08-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200.5 | 85-96 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
The Lakers stunned Houston last night as Steve Blake knocked down a three-pointer with just a couple seconds remaining to pull off the one-point upset. Now Los Angeles heads to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans and after last night's shooting debacle from both sides, I am expecting a lot more offense here. The game last night stayed under the total by 20 points which snapped a two-game over streak for the Lakers and tonight, they are catching their lowest over/under of the young season. The Lakers put up 92 shots last night and still lead the NBA with 88.8 attempts per game and while New Orleans allowed the fewest attempts, a lot of that has to do with who it has played. The Pelicans are coming off a low scoring game against Memphis which was their second under of the season, sandwiched around three overs. Those two unders came against the Grizzlies and Pacers, two of the tougher defenses in the NBA and we cannot label the Lakers as part of that group. Los Angeles will be able to draw New Orleans in and set the tempo at a high pace which will lead to a lot of shots on both ends of the floor. As long as the shots are falling more than last night, which should be a guarantee, we will be looking good here. The Lakers are 16-5 to the over in their last 21 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points while going 12-4 to the over in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the over is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 9* Over (517) Los Angeles Lakers/(518) New Orleans Pelicans
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11-08-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards +3 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
The Wizards picked up their first win of the season as they took care of the Sixers on Wednesday and I think that gives them a shot of momentum after losing their first three games of the season. Washington will be looking for its first home win of the season as well and this is a very good spot to do so. Expectations are high in Washington this season for the first time in a very long time and these are the types of games they need to win as it gives them a barometer of where they actually stand against the good teams. The Nets are off to a 2-2 start which is nothing special as they are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, losing both of those games on the highway while being favored. They are coming off a home blowout victory over Utah last time out and with a home game against undefeated Indiana tomorrow night, Brooklyn could be peaking ahead to that one. Brooklyn took three of the four meetings against Washington last season but the Wizards won one of the games at home while the other game in Washington went to overtime where the Nets were able to pull away. The Nets are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games against teams with a losing home record while under head coach Randy Wittman his teams are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a win by 10 points or more. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series while the Nets have dropped six of the last seven against the number in Washington. 9* (510) Washington Wizards
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11-07-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -3 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
After going 38-3 at home last season, the Nuggets are already just one loss away from matching that mark this year as they have started 0-2 at the Pepsi Center and 0-3 overall. They are coming off a loss against San Antonio and it was a game they could have and should have won but they were outscored 30-16 in the final period to lose by eight points. During a lengthy film session Wednesday, Nuggets head coach Brian Shaw reiterated the need to push the tempo at home and minimize turnovers that have plagued Denver in two of its first three games. The Nuggets committed 19 turnovers in their opener at Sacramento and added 23 miscues against San Antonio. Denver has a significant edge down low as the Nuggets are fourth in the league in rebounding while the Hawks are 25th so look for the Nuggets to dominate the boards down low with Kenneth Faried and Javale McGee. Atlanta won in Sacramento in its last game as it nearly blew a 19-point fourth quarter margin as it got down to one point before the Hawks were able to finish off the Kings. That evened the Hawks record at 2-2 and got them their first road win of the season where they are currently 1-2. Winning consecutive road games was a challenge last season as Atlanta went just 2-6 on the road immediately following a road victory. Despite the poor start, this is still a very solid Denver team that will be in the playoff mix once again and it has to take care of its home court. The Nuggets have won eight of the last nine games in Denver against the Hawks so this is a good place to grab that elusive first home win of the season. Denver is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams averaging 103 or more ppg while the Hawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. 10* (704) Denver Nuggets
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11-06-13 | Chicago Bulls +3 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 80-97 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Pacers blew our ticket last night as a big third quarter led them to their fourth straight victory to open the season and remain the lone undefeated team in the NBA which is definitely a surprise this early in the season. It will be a test to keep it going however as the schedule has set up in the Pacers favor as through the first week of the season, they have faced the 30th ranked slate in the NBA. Now they will face their biggest test of the early season even though the Bulls are not playing to their ability yet. Chicago is off to a 1-2 start, losing both games on the road and narrowly defeating the Knicks at home by a point. The Bulls are 0-3 ATS and coming off what can be considered an embarrassing loss at Philadelphia on Saturday, they put together an intense practice on Monday which lasted for three hours. They hope to carry the intensity over into games and especially this one as Chicago is in need of a big win. It is also in need of hitting some shots. After three games, the Bulls are 29th in the NBA in three-point shooting at 23.2 percent. Only the Thunder is worse at 22.1 percent. In addition, the Bulls are just 22nd in three-point attempts at 18.7. Against the Pacers' tough interior defense, the Bulls are going to need to score over the top which is something the Pistons could not do last night, making just 20 percent from long range on 5-25 shooting. Derrick Rose also needs to step things up as he has shot just 28.8 percent from the floor through the first three games and has been to the free throw line just 10 times. He has had some of his best game against Indiana and this could finally be his season breakthrough. The Bulls went 1-3 against Indiana last season but in the other 16 games since Rose joined the team, they are 13-3 against the Pacers. The Bulls are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 games coming off an upset loss as a favorite while going 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games after a loss by six points or less. Look for there to be no undefeated teams remaining in the league after tonight. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls
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11-05-13 | Houston Rockets +1.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Normally we try to avoid laying points on the road but the good news here is that we no longer have to as Houston opened as a slight favorite but the line has switched with Portland now laying a short number. After a 3-0 start to the season, Houston got thumped in Los Angeles last night as the Clippers led by as many as 21 points and they never trailed. That puts the Rockets in a good spot tonight as elite teams rarely put up consecutive poor efforts but to their credit, they did shoot 50 percent from the floor so it will be up to the defense to turn things around tonight. The Blazers have looked very solid on offense and they are shooting a blistering 44.1 percent from long range but that is a number that is not going to hold up. They are one of the worst scoring teams in the middle so if long range shots are not going down, they are in big trouble. The big advantage here is in the interior for the Rockets as they should be able to overwhelm the Blazers down low. Their defense has allowed teams to score at will in the paint and they aren't better than average defenders from anywhere on the court as a team. Portland has gotten off to a hot shooting start this season and that is going to cool down eventually. Coming off two outright wins as underdogs, the Blazers are in a bad spot as we play against teams coming off a win as an underdog in the first six games of the season, after closing out last season with five or more straight losses. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1996. 9* (715) Houston Rockets
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11-05-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Sacramento Kings -2 | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
Sacramento opened the season with a home win against Denver but it has been downhill since then with losses against the Clippers and Warriors. The gap between the Kings and the league's elite was clear as the Clippers and Warriors exploited the Kings' defense, a weakness in recent seasons. The last game against Golden St. was especially troubling as the starting five played limited minutes while scoring a combined 22 points which set the tone for a performance that left head coach Michael Malone expressing his disgust over his team's lack of fight. "I want to give this group an opportunity before we make changes, but I will also say this starting lineup is not set in stone for 82 games," Malone said. Getting called out could be the best thing at this point. Atlanta won its lone home game of the season against Toronto but has lost both road games including a defeat at Los Angeles against the Lakers on Sunday. Going back to last season, the Hawks have dropped 14 of 18 road games and despite dominating this series with 10 straight wins, they are underdogs for a reason. They were just 8-20 as road underdogs a season ago. Sacramento opened with three straight games against Western Conference foes but now face an Eastern Conference opponent after winning eight of its last 11 games last year against the east. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 10 points while Atlanta has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six road games while going 1-7 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. 9* (718) Sacramento Kings
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11-05-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +2 | 99-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a statement game for the Pistons. They have been at or near the bottom of the Central Division for the last four years but they are a team on the rebound and are expected to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2008. Detroit has won both games at home while losing its lone road game against Memphis in overtime. The Pistons have been dominated by Indiana over the last few years, including a four-game sweep last season by 11, 19, 32 and 18 points, so they will be out to prove they can no longer be pushed around. They possess one of the best frontcourts in the NBA which leads to a big upgrade in defense. Indiana is off to a 3-0 start to the season with wins over Orlando, New Orleans and Cleveland, not exactly a bunch of world beaters. The Pacers have not looked very good in doing so however as Indiana is averaging 20 turnovers per game, second-most in the league, better only than winless Boston (21). Part of the problem is unfamiliarity as nearly half of the Pacers' roster (six of 14 players, 42.8 percent) is new for this season and that can be an issue early in the season, which we are seeing. The Pacers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against teams with a winning record and Detroit falls into a superb situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 80 points or less going up against an opponent after allowing 90 points or less two straight games. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. 9* (708) Detroit Pistons
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11-04-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Cleveland Cavaliers -2 | Top | 92-93 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
We made a poor call on the Knicks last night as they could not stop Minnesota in the first quarter, allowing 40 points to the Timberwolves and falling behind by 21 points, a deficit they nearly erased but could not overcome. Minnesota is 3-0 for the first time in 12 years but that streak ends tonight. The Timberwolves were pretty average over the last three quarters last night, averaging just 23 points per quarter while getting outscored by 12 points and nearly blowing a 23-point lead. Playing in the second of back-to-back nights will be difficult after last night and last season, Minnesota was just 8-14 playing with no rest including going 4-7 on the road. This is definitely a team on the rise, but now that the cat is out of the bag, the value is going the other way. Cleveland is back home following two road games over the weekend, both resulting in losses. We played against the Cavaliers Friday in Charlotte and after that loss, they traveled to Indiana and were crushed by the Pacers by 15 points. I expect a big bounceback effort tonight on their home floor as going back, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points. Minnesota meanwhile is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a win while going back further, it is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games coming off a win as an underdog. Look for Cleveland to grab the comfortable win at home, thus covering with this short number. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers
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11-03-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. New York Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
The Knicks return home following a last second loss in Chicago on Thursday night as Derrick Rose scored the game winning floater with just 5.7 remaining. New York fell to 1-1 with the loss as the lone victory came here at MSG against the Bucks to open the season. Expectations are high once again in New York as even Garden Chairman said the Knicks should be expected to win the NBA Championship and it starts by taking care of business at home. Last season, the Knicks won a playoff series for the first time in 13 years thanks to having the home court advantage as it was 31-10 at MSG during the regular season and 5-2 in the playoffs. Additionally, the Knicks were able to bounce back well as they went 21-12 following a loss and I expect a big bounce back effort tonight. Minnesota meanwhile is off to a 2-0 start and it looks to start a season 3-0 for the first time since 2001 but the problem is that the Timberwolves are not at home. Both victories to open the season came at home including a resounding victory over Oklahoma City following an overtime win over Orlando but Minnesota went just 11-30 on the road last season including 9-29 when getting points. Like New York, the Timberwolves were a solid team when coming of a loss but they went only 7-23 following a victory and one of those losses came here in New York right after they defeated the Thunder in December. The line then was eight points and I'm not sold that the gap has closed this much. The Timberwolves are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Knicks are 18-2 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing a game as an underdog. 10* (710) New York Knicks
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11-02-13 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz +6 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The NBA card is filled with a lot of three-in-four matchups including both teams here. Houston is coming off a win last night at home against the Mavericks as James Harden had another big night scoring while Dwight Howard again had a huge night on the boards. The Rockets now hit the road for the first time and after being favored by 6.5 points at home, they are now favored by the same amount on the road. Basically this is saying that Houston would be favored by 2.5 points against Dallas on a neutral floor and 10.5 points against Utah on a neutral floor and this differential of eight points is way off. This is the Rockets first road game of the season and high expectations lead to high point spreads which is the case here. Utah meanwhile is off to a 0-2 start and expectations are not very high on the Jazz this season as they cut loose on a lot of their roster but they didn't get to the point of a total rebuild. They lost at home in their opener against Oklahoma City by just three points and lost by a similar margin last night in Phoenix. The fact they head home is a big advantage in this three-in-four situation. Houston was horrendous playing with no rest last year and the fact that it is even older this season should not improve that. The Rockets were 6-15 straight up and 8-13 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set including going 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS when going from home to on the road. Utah meanwhile was 4-1 straight up and ATS when going from the road to home on no rest a season ago. The Jazz also fall into a solid NBA situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that had a winning percentage between .450 and .550 from a season ago. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Jazz are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss while the Rockets are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (512) Utah Jazz
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11-01-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Charlotte Bobcats +3 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
We played against Charlotte on Wednesday and despite losing by 13 points, the Bobcats played a relatively good game. The game was close for the most part but Houston was able to pull away in the fourth quarter and actually got the cover on a last second three-pointer before the shot clock expired. Now the Bobcats are back in Charlotte for their home opener and while this is a team still in rebuilding mode, the first game at home is always a big one. Despite some very rough seasons overall the last two years, Charlotte has won its home opener in each, defeating Milwaukee as a three-point underdog in 2011-12 and defeating Indiana last season as a seven-point underdog. Now underdogs once again, I expect the Bobcats to rise to the occasion. Cleveland meanwhile is coming off a win in its season opener against Brooklyn as it defeated the Nets by four points at home. Now the Cavaliers go from home underdog to road favorite which is a scenario I like to go against. Last season Cleveland was just 10-31 on the road and while one of those wins was here in Charlotte, it was by only two points and the Cavaliers were not favored then and I don't believe they should be favored now. The Cavaliers were road favorites only once last season and while they won and covered, it was a game at Orlando which was missing three of its top players. Charlotte falls into a great situation here as well as we play against teams in the first six games of the season that are coming off a win as an underdog, after closing out last season with five or more straight losses. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Charlotte Bobcats
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10-31-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -6 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
After winning two straight games against Memphis to open the playoffs last season, the Clippers went on to lose four straight games for a quick exit. That led to the firing of head coach Vinny Del Negro and the Clippers brought in Doc Rivers for a fresh start but the start to the new season did not go as planned. The Lakers bench dominated the Clippers in the fourth quarter and they lost their season opener by 13 points to a team they were not supposed to lose to, especially one without Kobe Bryant. It is now bounceback time for Los Angeles which claims it was not ready and was a good lesson to open the season. I expect the Clippers to rise to the occasion tonight on national television. They take on Golden St. which destroyed the same team that beat the Clippers two nights ago. The Warriors never trailed against the Lakers, built a 35-point lead and showed the rest of the Western Conference they are to be taken serious. Golden St. shot 53.5 percent from the floor including 55.6 percent from long range and while this is a big game for them as well, I do not expect the same sharpshooting tonight on the road. The Warriors were just 19-22 away from home last regular season and went 2-4 on the highway during the playoffs. They were in this situation only once last season where they won at home and played on the road the next night and it resulted in a loss at Sacramento. A similar result is on the table for tonight. The Clippers fall into a great early season situation where we play on favorites in the first six games of the season that are coming off a loss as a road favorite, a playoff team from last season which lost four or more of their last five games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996 including a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons with an average point differential of +13.3 ppg. 10* (504) Los Angeles Clippers
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10-30-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Sacramento Kings -3 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
One of the more improved team in the NBA this season could be the Sacramento Kings. They need to learn how to win on the road but that is not our concern tonight. The Kings have new ownership, a new general manager and a new head coach and this stale franchise will no doubt embrace the change. Sacramento doesn't appear to have the defensive skill to completely reverse their putrid rankings from last year, but with a little focus, effort and good coaching, they could become respectable. If not for anything else, they will be exciting to watch on offense as additions of Ray McCallum and Ben McLemore bring fresh life into the roster. While the Kings are looking to go up, the Nuggets are set to take a major backwards fall. They were 32 games over .500 last season but lost to Golden St. in the first round which eventually led to the firing of head coach George Karl despite being names the NBA Coach of the Year. Denver lost Andre Iguodala to free agency and could be without two additional starters tonight if Ty Lawson cannot go. Danilo Gallinari will be out for at least another month. Even forward Kenneth Faried is not 100 percent. Had this been last season, we could eat up the points Denver is getting here but it is the underdog for a reason. The spread variance is eight points from last year to this year and after nine straight wins in this series, that streak ends tonight. Denver struggled on the road last season to begin with and with so many question marks going into the season opener, including a complete overhaul of the offensive system, those road struggles will be even worse. 10* (726) Sacramento Kings
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10-30-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Houston Rockets -12 | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The Bobcats should be better as they are a year older and they went out and acquired veteran center Al Jefferson so things are heading the right way. But this team has been so bad the last couple years that it will take a lot more than that to compete. The issue tonight is that Jefferson is not even 100 percent heading into the season opener as he has been out since October 11th because of a sprained ankle and he is listed as questionable for tonight. He has practiced some so he likely will go but I don't se him being very effective. Last season, the Bobcats were one of the least efficient teams in terms of frontcourt scoring. They will be better this year with Jefferson and number four draft pick Cody Zeller but it will take time and even more so with Jefferson missing so much time. The Rockets put together a great season last year as they finished 45-37 and made it back to the playoffs before losing to top seeded Oklahoma City in the first round. Now expectations are even higher with the addition of Dwight Howard. The Rockets finished near the bottom of the league in every major defensive statistic, and Howard's commanding presence in the paint will fill that void. James Harden got a scare in the final preseason game but he is fine with what turned out to be a bruised knee. Houston has dominated this series with wins in five straight meetings and it has covered five straight at home. The Bobcats are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games against Western Conference teams while going just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a double-digit underdog. 9* (712) Houston Rockets
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10-30-13 | Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +12 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
We made a bad call on the Heat last night as while they did come out lethargic, they took control of the game with a big second quarter and the Bulls could not recover. So while they overcame the challenge of banner night, overcoming tonight's challenge could prove to be even more difficult. Last night was a big night and Miami used a lot of energy to get through the night so going up against what is expected to be the worst team in the NBA, I see a big sleepwalk effort taking place tonight. It is no secret that Philadelphia is going to be bad this season as it is in the midst of a major rebuild but don't think the linesmakers aren't aware either. The Sixers have a new head coach in Brett Brown who was a San Antonio assistant coach last season and he brings in a new attitude. He's putting a huge emphasis on player development, conditioning, and changing the culture above everything else. He knows it is going to be a trying season and while many are saying the Sixers will tank on purpose to ensure getting the top overall draft pick, that isn't further from the truth. "I feel like the risk-reward in this city is extremely special and very attractive to me," Brown said. "I've always appreciated and enjoyed a challenge." Later in the season, who knows how the Sixers react but with this being the first game of the season against the two-time World Champions, you can guarantee a 100 percent effort. Going back to last season, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit victory while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win of any kind. 9* (702) Philadelphia 76ers
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10-29-13 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 95-107 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Miami and we know what that means. The Heat will be lowering their 2012-13 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 12 NBA Champions (Dallas, Boston, San Antonio, Miami three times, San Antonio, Detroit, San Antonio and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 38-61 ATS mark (38.4 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for six of the last seven seasons. Two years ago, Dallas got thumped by Miami. Three years ago, the Lakers won but did not cover against the Rockets. Four years ago, the Lakers won but did not cover in their opener against the Clippers. Five years ago, the Celtics won but did not cover at home against the Cavaliers. Six years ago, the Spurs won but did not cover at home against the Blazers. Seven years ago, Miami lost against the Bulls by 42 points in its opener. Last year, the Heat did cover against Boston giving the recent run its only blemish. While we are looking to fade Miami, this is a big game for Chicago. The Bulls finished 45-37 last year which was a disappointment and it was largely due to Derrick Rose being out. They did make it out of the first round of the playoffs as they got past Brooklyn in seven games but were taken down by Miami in the second round 4-1 after taking the first game. While this is a test for Chicago, I expect greater motivation on its side to get the season started on a high note. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls
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06-20-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5.5 | Top | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The blown lead by San Antonio in Game Six can be viewed two ways. It is going to absolutely crush the Spurs going forward or it will put Miami in a tough spot facing a letdown situation. I feel it is the former as a loss like the one that San Antonio endured on Tuesday is difficult to recover from. The Spurs had this one wrapped up as they were up by five points with 28 seconds remaining and were at the free throw line when it completely unraveled. Two missed free throws, one from Manu Ginobili and one from Kawhi Leonard didn't help while two blown defensive rebounds with Tim Duncan off the floor, led to two second-chance three-pointers for Miami in regulation. The rest is history. Duncan played one of his best postseason games of all-time as he put up 30 points and 17 rebounds but he played more than 44 minutes and managed only five points after halftime. I do not see a repeat and I definitely see some fatigue settling in. It will be tough for the Spurs to come back mentally. "I have no clue how we're going to be reenergized," Manu Ginobili said after the game. "I'm devastated." It lingered into Wednesday as well. "I'm still down," he added. "A blow like that, it's not easy to get back up." Home teams have won 41 of 53 Game Sevens since 1991, covering 31 of those games and this one has the added benefit of the Miami miracle. 10* (714) Miami Heat
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06-20-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 189.5 | Top | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
We lost with the under on Game Six as it was looking good until the Miami comeback sealed our fate which sent the game into overtime. I am coming back with the under tonight however as I feel the situation is perfect for a very low scoring affair. It is also going against the over streak which many will be riding once again. We have now seen the last four games go over the total and the last three have not even been close. Game Four saw 202 points, Game Five saw 218 points and Game Six saw 203 points. People will be expecting to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. This is where there is a difference from the past and it is almost as though the linesmakers are trying to bait bettors into taking the over. Whereas the total has risen each of the last three games to compensate for the over action coming in, this number has actually gone down from Game Six so many will feel there is value by taking the over. That may be the case from a raw numbers standpoint but not a situational standpoint. History shows these games are played tighter than others as the last three NBA Finals Game Seven total scores have been 162, 155 and 174. Clearly, defense is emphasized. We also have a great situation on our side as we play on the under in the NBA Finals where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 50-18 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (713) San Antonio Spurs/(714) Miami Heat
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06-18-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 191 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
We won with the Over in Game Three as the number cleared the total by three points and that gamer triggered an Over barrage as the last two games have also gone over the total. The last two were not even close as Game Four saw 202 points while Game Five saw 218 points. That last game was easily the highest scoring game of the season series between the Heat and Spurs, regular season and playoffs, and it was also the highest scoring regulation game for San Antonio in the playoffs. It was also the highest scoring game for Miami in the playoffs as well so that will only help us out even more here. People will be expected to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. Because of the recent high scoring, the linesmakers have been forced to adjust the total to accommodate the Over action and thus, we are seeing the highest total of this series so far. That presents a ton of value. San Antonio is 8-1 to the under this season after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games and while going 12-3 to the under this season after scoring 60 or more points in the first half. Miami has gone under the total in four straight home games while going 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against winning teams. The Spurs also have a solid situation on their side for a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points involving a team shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent that allowed 55 percent or higher in its last game. This situation is 50-22 (69.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (711) San Antonio Spurs/(712) Miami Heat
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06-16-13 | Miami Heat -1.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
As mentioned in the Game Four analysis, playing the Zig Zag Theory over the last eight games with Miami would have provided you with a perfect 8-0 ATS record as the Heat have alternated ATS wins and losses since Game Two of the Indiana series. They extended that on Thursday with an easy winner making it nine straight Heat covers by laying the bounce. I think this streak finally comes to an end however as I believe Miami takes control of the series by winning Game Five and heading home in need of just one more win to defend its NBA title. LeBron promised a better game and he didn't disappoint as he scored a team high 33 points on 15-25 shooting as Miami shot 52.9 as team. The Heat won going away despite San Antonio taking 14 more free throws but it really came down to turnovers as the Spurs had 18 of them thanks to 13 Miami steals and it will be up to the Heat to continue that defensive pressure in what is still considered a must win game. Miami also didn't allow as many open looks from three-point range as it allowed just 16 attempts and while the Spurs did make half of those, limiting the attempts is the key. Miami found its rhythm in Game Four and that is bad news for San Antonio as the Heat are a team that can use that momentum in crunch time as we saw on Thursday. The Heat have had their struggles of late following wins which have aided in the Zig Zag success but they are now 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Spurs fell to 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Getting this one early could be big as the value is on the Heat at a pickem price. 10* (709) Miami Heat
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06-13-13 | Miami Heat +1.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 109-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Playing the Zig Zag Theory over the last eight games with Miami would have provided you with a perfect 8-0 ATS record as the Heat have alternated ATS wins and losses since Game Two of the Indiana series. This is a trend I don't prefer backing because you know it will not last but I think this situation is different in that we have to continue to ride it. The Heat were embarrassed on Tuesday at San Antonio as they lost by 36 points after putting up that identical number of points in the second half. While Miami did not play that well, the Spurs played over their heads with a tremendous 16-32 shooting display from long range. However it is very interesting to note that since the NBA Finals went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, the Game Three winner when the series was tied 1-1 has gone on to win 12 of the 13 titles, though the Heat were the lone one that didn't, in 2011. Definitely some irony there. That was a big loss in terms of Miami trying to repeat as champions but it is far from done as five of the 12 teams that lost by 30-plus in an NBA Finals game went on to win the series (not counting series ending 30-point losses). I see Miami coming back big, just like it did against San Antonio after losing Game One and it has been solid in this situation for a while, going 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games following a loss by 20 or more points. The injury to Tony Parker is a big one while the bounceback we will get from LeBron James will be the difference maker in evening up this series. 10* (707) Miami Heat
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06-11-13 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 187.5 | Top | 77-113 | Win | 100 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
The first two games of this series went under the total with both closing totals being 189.5. Now the series shifts to San Antonio and we are catching a lower over/under to work with and it is the lowest total in the four meetings going back to the regular season. The Heats have now gone under the total in five straight games which makes this game a great situation to go the other way. The defense has led the way over this stretch as Miami has allowed just 84.4 ppg and the main reason has been limited opponents shots as it has forced opponents to shoot an average of 74.8 attempts per game. This is down significantly from its 80.9 attempts per game allowed during the regular season. San Antonio will have something to say about this on its home floor. The Spurs defense has limited the made shots over the last five games but they have allowed an average of 88.2 attempts per game over that span and more shot on offense from both sides means a potentially higher scoring game. I expect San Antonio to shoot the ball better than it did in Game Two as the big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili went a combined 10-33 (30.3 percent) from the floor. The Spurs have gone over in five of their last six home games while going 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a loss. Meanwhile Miami is 10-4-1 to the over in its last 15 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) San Antonio Spurs
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06-09-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -6 | Top | 84-103 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
We won with the Spurs in Game One of the NBA Finals as they took the opener outright in Miami. It did not come as a surprise at all as San Antonio, despite losing the two regular season meetings, kept those games very close but now is the time Miami steps it up. The Heat can ill-afford to go down 2-0 in this series before hitting the road for three straight games at San Antonio so while the pressure may be on, this team has shown it can get it done when needed. The Heat are a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS following a loss in the playoffs and all we need to do is look back at the Chicago series when Miami lost Game One at home only to go on and defeat the Bulls by 37 points in Game Two. Miami has not lost consecutive games since January, has not lost consecutive home games since June of 2011 and after losing a game at home this year, it has gone a perfect 6-0 straight up and ATS in its next home game. One player that will have a big game is LeBron James as despite posting a triple-double, he scored just 18 points which was his lowest output of the playoffs by far. Miami is 14-4 ATS this season revenging a loss and this is the biggest revenge game to date as going to San Antonio tied at 1-1 is not ideal but it is all that is left for the Heat at this point. 10* (704) Miami Heat
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06-06-13 | San Antonio Spurs +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The question in Game One is whether the extra rest is going to hurt or help the Spurs. They have been off since May 27th after sweeping the Grizzlies which means a full 10 days off prior to the NBA Finals. We have to decipher if rust or rest will be the bigger factor and I believe that the latter is going to benefit San Antonio more. While this is now a team of veteran stars and upcoming young players, the added time off benefits everyone especially the older players after a very long season. Adding to that is the fact that Miami is coming off a hard fought series against Indiana that went the distance which will give San Antonio a big edge in not only rest but also with the letdown effect. Miami is the best team in the NBA and no one is denying that but the Pacers showed how certain matchups can take advantage against the Heat and San Antonio has those as well. Miami won both regular season meetings but they were decided by a combined seven points and expect this opener to show a similar type of game. Miami has shown the letdown effect in these playoffs as it is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win while the Spurs have been solid in these types of situations, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Look for a very close game here with the Spurs having a legitimate shot at stealing the opener. 10* (701) San Antonio Spurs
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06-03-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 76-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Miami went cold in the third quarter of Game Six and even though it rallied from a 17-point deficit to cut the lead to four points but then a couple questionable calls pretty much put the game away. LeBron James finished with 29 points, going 10 of 21 from the field, but the Heat got next to nothing from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who combined to score 15 points. Now it is on to Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Finals for Miami for the second straight season. Last year, the Heat rolled over Boston by 13 points and I expect a similar outcome here. Heading back home is obviously huge despite the recent road success for Miami as the Pacers are a different team on the highway, sitting five games under .500 for the entire season. The Heat recover well from setbacks as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss including a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoffs with those wins coming by an average of 22 ppg. They also fall into an outstanding situation as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a double-digit loss as a road favorite where team scored less than 85 points. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Miami Heat
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06-01-13 | Miami Heat -2.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 77-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Those playing the Zig Zag Theory have cleaned up in this series as playing against the winning team since the opener has yielded a perfect 4-0 ATS record. I believe that comes to an end tonight however as this is the game that the Heat can prove that they are the dominant team and avoid the ever-so-crazy Game Seven where anything can happen. Miami was able to pull away in Game Five thanks to a 30-13 third quarter with LeBron James again leading the way. He took off for 16 points and four assists in the third quarter to finish with 30 points overall in Game Five. For the last two seasons, Miami has had that killer instinct when sitting with three victories as it has closed out the series the next game and that trend will continue here. I give Indiana a lot of credit as it has shown that it can match up with the best team in the NBA but ultimately, it does not have enough to keep up. The Spurs have been off and rested for a while now and with Game Seven slated for Monday and the NBA Finals slated to start on Thursday, Miami wants to end this series now and gets its own rest. The Pacers have been solid coming off a loss but Miami is 18-8 ATS coming off a home win by 10 points or more this season and playing on the road is no issue as it is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 road games. 10* (523) Miami Heat
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05-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 185.5 | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
After another over in Game Four, the first four games of this series have now all gone over the total and while we got burnt the last game, we will come back with the under again tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are again catching a valued number as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far in this series. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 5-0 in its last five games while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last five games going over the total as well. I mentioned Indiana needed a strong defensive effort in Game Four and it got it as it held Miami to 39 percent shooting from the floor. While the Pacers shot 50 percent that game, the reason the game cleared the total was due to free throws as the teams combined for 60 attempts, making 50 of those. This has been the story of late as after making a combined 40 free throws in Game One, they have averaged just over 49 makes the last three games. I expect that to come down as these teams are averaging just a combined 36.2 makes per game on the season. Both teams fall into two solid situations. First, we play the under involving teams that have gone over the total in five straight games and are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. This situation is 156-96 (61.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Additionally, we play the under where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series which is tied. This situation is 104-64 (61.9 percent) since 1996. 10* Under (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Miami Heat
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The first three games of this series have all gone over the total but I expect that to come to an end tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are catching a great number in doing so as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far so we are getting additional value on top of it. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 4-0 while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last four games going over the total as well. The Pacers need this game badly to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series and the only way to do that is to do a better job on the defensive end. The Heat's five starters each scored in double figures for the first time this postseason and overall they shot 54.5 percent from the floor while their 70 points in the first half set a franchise playoff record for points in a half. Indiana is allowing an NBA best 42.2 percent shooting on defense so that last effort was an aberration. Miami continued its strong play of defense, allowing the Pacers to shoot just 39.7 percent from the floor and over its last five games, it is allowing just 40.7 percent shooting. 10* Under (515) Miami Heat/(516) Indiana Pacers
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05-27-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
History is clearly not on the side of the Grizzlies as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs. As a matter of fact, only three teams have gone on to force a Game Seven but in this case, Memphis is not dead yet. It has in fact already spurned history this year as the Grizzlies became the first team in NBA Playoff history to lose the first two games of a series (against the Clippers) and then go on to win the next four games all by double digits. Obviously that doesn't have a lot to do with this game but this is a team with no quit and we will see another great effort from Memphis similar to the one that we saw at the start of Game Three. The Spurs didn't take their first lead until 15 seconds into the fourth quarter so they have to be given credit for not folding. The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. While the series may be out of reach, the Grizzlies extend it for one more game at least. 10* (514) Memphis Grizzlies
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05-26-13 | Miami Heat -1 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Indiana may look tasty as a home underdog here but let's not forget it is playing one of the best road teams we have ever seen and one that is coming off a bitter defeat. The Pacers handed the Heat what became their fourth loss in 50 games and now we are catching Miami where a win likely leads to a cover. It has won nine straight games on the road and going back further is 22-1 over its last 23 road games. The Pacers are no doubt a solid home team and they have shown they match up very well against Miami but this is where the best team in the NBA steps up. Miami will be out avoid what happened last year in this playoff series as it lost one of its two home games to the Pacers only to go on and get hammered in the first game in Indiana. The Heat also fall into a solid situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (511) Miami Heat
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05-25-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
Due to unforeseen circumstances, I am unable to provide my normal in-depth analysis for Saturday's games. We won with Memphis in Game Two as the Grizzlies rallied from a late deficit to force overtime and secure the cover. That helps us here because of the outright loss as Memphis cannot afford to go down 3-0 in this series and desperation mode will be in play. The Grizzlies have been here before as they fell behind 0-2 against the Clippers only to bounce back to not only win and cover Game Three but to go on to win the next four games. That latter task will be difficult but heading home here will have them in great shape. The Grizzlies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Also, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered three of their last four against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 51-27 ATS (65.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies
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05-22-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
I played against Miami in its first half in Game One in the series against Chicago and it not only didn't cover the half but lost the game outright. The Heat went on to win the next four games to take the series but the last thing they want is to lose Game One again as the challenge to come back from that will be more difficult. Miami was off for over a week before taking on Chicago and it will have been off for a week leading up to this series and while rustiness can be attributed to the Game One loss against the Bulls, I feel they have learned from that mistake and will come out a much different team this time around. Indiana took care of New York in six games after taking out Atlanta in six games as well. The Pacers were 6-0 at home but their road woes continued as they went just 2-4 on the highway with all four of those losses coming by double-digits. This same comparison can be said about the season series as Indiana defeated Miami in the first two meetings but both of those games were at home and Miami was able to return the favor with a 14-point win in the third and final regular season meeting. I fully expect the Heat to come out as if this is an elimination game. The Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record and while Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a win, it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* (504) Miami Heat
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05-21-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The extended time off did not help Memphis as it came out rusty in the Game One of this series as it was outscored 31-14 and was never able to get back into the game. That was a bad call on our part but I certainly expect a much better effort in Game Two as the Grizzlies are only dealing with one day of rest and will be stoked to come out for some retribution. It was a surprise that Memphis did get blown out as bad as it did in Game One after three of the four regular season meeting against the Spurs were tight. Because of the severity of the loss, we are catching some additional value here and while that is good to have, I don't think the Grizzlies will even need it. We can chalk that game up an as anomaly considering it was Memphis' worst defeat since January and their third worst of the season. The difference was the hot shooting Spurs which nailed 14 three-pointers, the most Memphis has allowed all season long as well as five more than any other opponent in the playoffs. Additionally, the Spurs' 14 three-pointers marked a franchise playoff-record. As far as the Grizzlies offense, they shot just 43.2 percent while Zach Randolph had one of his worst games as he scored just two points on 1-8 shooting and his -28 +/- was easily the worst of any Memphis player. Expect a bog bounceback from him as well. We have two situations in our favor as well. First we play against home teams after two straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg, after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-40 ATS (63.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Memphis Grizzlies
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05-19-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 83-105 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Does Memphis have what it takes to make it to the NBA Finals? Not many gave the Grizzlies a chance in the first round against the Clippers after losing the first two games of the series only to go on and win the final four games. They then lost the first game in the second round against the Thunder only to go on and win the final four games there as well. I am expecting a different start in this series however as Memphis may not be able get away with early losses again but even so, a close game either way cashes a ticket for us. The home team won all four regular season meetings this year but three of the games were decided by four points or fewer including two in overtime which shows how the games, and the series, could go either way in this matchup as home court may not play as big of a factor as many believe. Fifth seeded Memphis would be the lowest-seeded team to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded Knicks in 1999, but this isn't a classic underdog pick. Since Tayshaun Prince the Grizzlies back on February 1st, the Grizzlies have the third best record in the Western Conference's, ahead of the Spurs. The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record while going back further, they are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. Meanwhile the Spurs are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams that are revenging a loss of three points or less, off a road win by 10 points or more. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (501) Memphis Grizzlies
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05-18-13 | New York Knicks +5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The home team has won and covered the last four games in this series and all in very easy fashion as all four victories have been by double-digits. While many expected this to be a very good series, it has been anything but with the lopsided games but I think that changes tonight as the Knicks stave off elimination once again. New York, trailing 3-1 in this series, won Game Five at home to keep its playoff hopes alive and now it will have to win on the road in order to extend this series to the limit. The Knicks offense has been stymied in the two games at Indiana but its 25-21 road record this season shows they can win on the highway. This included a 2-1 record at Boston with the lone loss coming in overtime. With the season once again on the line, I expect the Knicks to finally solve some of the issues that plagued them in the first two games in Indiana. George Hill's status is still unknown for Game Six, so it's very possible the Knicks could continue to exploit the lack of depth Indiana has at the point as D.J. Augustin clearly was not the answer after finishing with no assists and the team turning it over 19 times. How important is Hill? With him on the court, the Pacers have outscored opponents by 61 points in the playoffs. When he's on the bench, Indy's been outscored by 37. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 90 points or less three straight games while the Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. We finally get treated to a non-home blowout in this series. 10* (747) New York Knicks
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05-16-13 | San Antonio Spurs -1 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
You have to give the Warriors a lot of credit for what they have done in the playoffs so far. After losing the opening game in their series with Denver, they Warriors won four of the next five games to oust the third-seeded Nuggets. They then split two games in San Antonio and then evened up the series at two games apiece with a come-from-behind win in overtime in Game Four before losing Game Five. Now with their backs against the wall, the Warriors need to win tonight to extend the series but I do not see it happening. San Antonio's experience will prove to be too much and its coaching has made the correct adjustments over the last three games to shut down the potent Golden St. offense. The Spurs have a game to work with and Game Seven is at home should it go that far but they do not want to head home as anything can happen in a Game Seven. San Antonio has shut down Klay Thompson since he scored 34 points in Game Two and while the defense has been given credit for slowing down Stephen Curry, his ankle injury is clearly affecting him even though he is not using it as an excuse. History is clearly on the Spurs side as well as teams that have won Game Five of a best-of-seven series that was tied have gone on to win the series 88 out of 99 times and San Antonio alone is 11-1 in its last 12 series when leading 3-2. Granted not all of these have been won in Game Six but the confidence level is there. The Spurs have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a home win by 10 points or more, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 51-23 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (741) San Antonio Spurs
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05-15-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | Top | 88-84 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is on the brink of elimination so this is obviously a must win situation for the Thunder. Coming back from a 3-1 series deficit is not going to be easy for the Western Conference favorites and it makes it even more difficult with the absence of Russell Westbrook. The Thunder had a great shot to even up this series in Game Four but they lost in overtime and now back home, I expect them to respond in a big way. Memphis clearly has the momentum in its favor and it has covered all four games in this series thus far. While we may be losing value with the increased number, I feel it could be even higher in this situation. Realistically, the Thunder could have the 3-1 series edge right now but being unable to close in the second half has been the big liability which has put them in this hole. In each of the first three games of the series, the go-ahead bucket was scored in the final two minutes and then there was the overtime in Game Four. Memphis has outscored the Thunder 23-12 in the final 90 seconds and overtime in this series. Surprisingly, it has been Kevin Durant that has come up small over the last two games as he went a mere 3-17 in the fourth quarter and overtime in the two games played in Memphis. Superstars step up and lead their team and that is what I am expecting from Durant tonight. Despite the Game Two loss, Oklahoma City is still 37-9 at home and it is 11-3 ATS in 14 home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. 10* (738) Oklahoma City Thunder
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05-15-13 | Chicago Bulls +14.5 v. Miami Heat | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
After losing its first game at home to open this series, Miami has shown who is the best team in the NBA as it has rebounded with three straight double-digit wins. The Bulls now are in the unenviable situation of needing to win three straight games in this series against a team that has not lost three straight games all season. Plain and simply, it will not be done. But we have to look at the situation one game at a time and while winning in Miami will certainly be a challenge, we are catching a huge number and it is the largest of the series thus far. Game Four was by far Chicago's worst effort as it shot just 25.7 percent from the floor including 11.8 percent from long range while scoring a mere nine points in the third quarter. Nate Robinson was 0-12 from the floor. We will definitely see a better effort tonight and win or lose, I expect a much closer battle here. Miami is 0-7 ATS in its seven home games this season coming off two or more consecutive road wins while going 0-9 ATS in its nine home games this season after playing two consecutive road games. The Bulls have two favorable situations on their side as well. WE play against favorites of 10 or more points in a game involving two teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after allowing 80 points or less. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. Also, we play on underdogs of 10 or more points after scoring 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 160 points or less. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing with triple revenge. 9* (735) Chicago Bulls
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05-14-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 195 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
As mentioned yesterday, NBA Playoffs' totals typically move in the direction of where the previous game went and we can often catch value in the process. We saw it last night ion the Bulls/Heat game although the adjustment made no difference as the game easily stayed under the total. In this case, we are getting even more value. Game One of this series went over the 202.5 and the number went up to 205 in Game Two. That game went under sop the number dipped in Game Three and after another under, it went down again Game Four. With that game also going under, the total has gone down to 195 for Game Five which is incredibly 10 point less than it was just three games ago and that screams value. This is easily the lowest total of the series and for the entire season between these two teams. They have gone 6-2 to the under in eight meetings but with a total of 195, two of those meetings that went under would have gone over. The big key here is the San Antonio offense as it needs to take over this game and I think that will be the case after a horrendous game as the Spurs shot 35.5 percent from the floor, were 7-27 from the three-point line and grabbed just 51 rebounds to Golden St.'s 65. After shooting just 39 percent in Game Two, San Antonio responded with a 51 percent effort in Game Three and I expect a similar rebound here. Golden St. has struggled from the floor the last three games and it should improve here as well. The Over is 5-2 in the Spurs last seven home games against teams with a losing road record while Golden St. is 30-18 to the over in its 48 games this season as an underdog. 9* Over (733) Golden St. Warriors/(734) San Antonio Spurs
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05-14-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -7 | Top | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
San Antonio had an opportunity to take a commanding lead in this series on Sunday but instead blew a late lead and eventually lost in overtime. Instead of a 3-1 edge, the Spurs are tied with Golden St. with pivotal Game Five ready to go a long way in deciding this series. A split in Oakland got the home floor back on the side of the Spurs and now they have to take advantage because the first two games of this series at home went the way of the visitors. The Warriors have clearly been the better team in San Antonio and this is something the Spurs need to reverse. The Warriors held leads of 18 and 20 points in the first two games respectively while holding the lead for 95 of the 106 minutes played at the AT&T Center. That is pretty bad for a team that that overall is 38-7 at home on the season and this is where the experience of the team will take over, just like it did in Game Three after being down two games to one. The offense needs to take over this game and I think that will be the case after a horrendous game as the Spurs shot 35.5 percent from the floor, were 7-27 from the three-point line and grabbed just 51 rebounds to Golden St.'s 65. After shooting just 39 percent in Game Two, San Antonio responded with a 51 percent effort in Game Three and I expect a similar rebound here. Only twice this year have the Spurs lost consecutive games when they played their normal starting lineup in both games. San Antonio is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games coming off a loss as a favorite. 10* (734) San Antonio Spurs
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05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
It is becoming crunch time for the top seed in the Western Conference as the Thunder trail the Grizzlies 2-1 following a loss in Game Three on Saturday. With two more home games on tap if the series is stretched to seven games, this game isn't a must win contest but it is as close as you can get for Oklahoma City. Falling down 3-1 is certainly not ideal and a victory here puts the home court back in possession of the Thunder. Oklahoma City could not have had a worst game on offense in Game Three as it was 32-88 (36.4 percent) from the floor. They wasted a great game on the boards as the Thunder outrebounded Memphis 51-44 including 14-5 on the offensive end and they achieved their goal of winning the inside game as they outscored the Grizzlies 44-30 in the paint. The Thunder spent Sunday trying to regain confidence shooting the ball after their worst performance this postseason both shooting and scoring. I expect a huge bounceback and this is the type of situations where superstars take over and that is what we should see from Kevin Durant. The Thunder are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while going 17-8 ATS in their 25 games this season coming off a loss. Even though Memphis got the cover in Game Three, the road team is 8-2 ATS over the last 10 meetings in this series. 10* (729) Oklahoma City Thunder
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05-13-13 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186.5 | 88-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
The NBA Playoffs' totals typically move in the direction of where the previous game went and we can often catch value in the process. Game One went under the total so in Game Two, the posted total went down three and a half points. Game Two went over so the Game Three posted total went up but just by a half-point. After going over again, the total has risen by another point for Game Four. With the last two games going over, I feel the value is now on the other side and we are due for a low scoring game. What we thought was going to be a physical, grind it out series, the last two games have been high scoring or at least on Miami's side. The Bulls defense has not performed the way they would like it to and we will see a difference in this one. Miami has been doing its part on defense as it has held Chicago to 88.3 ppg on 41.5 percent shooting from the floor. Don't expect the Heat to let up either as this is where this series can be won or lost. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls last four games following a double-digit loss at home and the under is 19-8 in their last 27 home games after having lost two of their last three games. Meanwhile Miami is 42-26 to the under in its last 68 games off a double-digit road win. 9* Under (727) Miami Heat/(728) Chicago Bulls
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05-13-13 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls +7.5 | Top | 88-65 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Miami has taken control of this series after losing the opener at home so now it is up to Chicago to do it best to try an even this series as going down 3-1 and heading back to Miami is fatal. The Bulls were right in it in Game Three as they entered the final period tied with the Heat and were down by just two points with four minutes left but Miami ended the game on a 19-11 run which sealed the win and cover. Amazingly, the Heat are 21-1 in their last 22 road games, with the lone loss coming in Chicago, which snapped the team's 27-game wining streak in March. Therefore Chicago knows it can win here and that was proven on Friday as well despite the loss. I think the Miami offense takes a step back here and namely Norris Cole. He is the Heat's second-leading scorer in the series, at 14.8 ppg, shooting 50 percent from the field including going 8-8 on three-pointers. That will not last. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS coming off a home loss this season and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a double-digit home loss. They fall into a great situation also as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-22 ATS (72.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (728) Chicago Bulls
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05-12-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
We won with the Spurs in Game Three as they finally looked like the better team in this series. After being underdogs then and opening as underdogs in this game, San Antonio is now the favorite and while I do not expect the line to even come in play, it is a good buffer should the game be closer than I anticipate. On Friday, San Antonio outshot Golden State 50.6 percent to 39.3 percent as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were held in check, though the Spurs didn't feel like they defended any differently. That means it was just an off-shooting night with the opportunity to get it back this afternoon. Golden St. had won both home meetings against San Antonio prior to Game Three so it knows it can easily bounce back and even up this series before heading back to San Antonio. The Warriors know a loss here could be devastating. The big story here is the health of Stephen Curry who hurt his left ankle in Game Three and is considered a gametime decision today. The quick turnaround time between games does not help as Sunday's game starts about 38 hours from the end of Friday night's game but with the series on the line, there is hardly no chance he does not go today and he will be fine. Golden St. is 25-13 ATS following a loss this season while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss. Additionally, the Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record while the Spurs are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. 10* (726) Golden St. Warriors
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05-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 81-87 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
We won with the Spurs last night and this game sets up very similar. Memphis blew a big lead in Game One but came back to win the second game which is exactly what Golden St. did against San Antonio. Now it is up to Oklahoma City to hit the road and dig deep to try and get its home court advantage back. The loss of Russell Westbrook is certainly evident for the Thunder but that is not where the problem was for Oklahoma City in Game Two as 50 of the Grizzlies 99 points came in the paint, a dominating effort by the interior of Memphis. They made just 12 of their other 43 shots, but managed a 50-30 advantage in the paint. Part of the problem for the Thunder was settling for jump shots as they took only 17 shots inside the paint and they need to increase that. Additionally, the key to this game could be Kevin Martin who played a huge role in Game One with 25 points but came back with just six points in Game Two on 2-11 shooting. In two games against Memphis, the Thunder's starting lineup has scored only 64.7 points per 100 possessions which is horrid. The Thunder find themselves in a difficult situation in trying to win in Memphis where the Grizzlies have won 17 of their last 18 games but the thing is for us, we do not even need the outright win as we are catching a very favorable line. Oklahoma City is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams allowing 91 or fewer ppg while going 15-5 ATS in its 20 games this season coming off a loss as a favorite. 10* (721) Oklahoma City Thunder
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05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This series has clearly been dominated by Golden St. thus far as if not for a meltdown in the final four minutes of Game One, the Warriors would have a commanding 2-0 lead. They have held leads of 18 and 20 points in the first two games respectively while holding the lead for 95 of the 106 minutes played, and now that the series shifts west to Oakland, it would seem that Golden St. has a big edge. This is a huge game for the Spurs as not only do they need a win to recapture home court advantage, they need to start playing better and I feel the veteran aspect of this team gets it done. San Antonio knows it cannot continue to play the way it has and expect to win this series and this is where its experience needs to take over. The Spurs have been here before while this is just the second postseason for Golden St. in the last 19 years and that is significant in a pivotal Game Three in my opinion. The Warriors took care of Denver in all three games played on their home floor but two of those could have gone either way and for this game when talking value, it is on the Spurs side. We are seeing a 9.5-point line shift from Game Two which is too much of an overadjustment. San Antonio is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a home loss while going 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games revenging a home loss. Additionally, the Spurs fall into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (719) San Antonio Spurs
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05-08-13 | Golden State Warriors +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Golden St. let a huge win slip away in the opener of this series as it blew a 16-points lead with less than four minutes remaining and eventually lost in double overtime. The Warriors proved they can play with the elite after taking out Denver and taking the Spurs to the wire in this series opener and now it comes down to how they will respond. They can be a deflated bunch and not even show up or they can learn from that game and come out knowing they can win and take control of the home court with a victory tonight. I expect it will be the latter. Golden St. won three straight in the opening round after dropping the series opener to Denver and in this case, they know they were the better team for the majority of Game One in this series. Stephen Curry was masterful once again as he scored 44 points including going 6-14 from long range. The Spurs were able to defend him better late in the game after Klay Thompson fouled out and that really hurt Golden St. down the stretch. We are getting less value in Game Two but it is for good reason. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while San Antonio is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Warriors are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points while the Spurs are 9-21 ATS in their 30 games this season against teams that are making 36 percent or more of their three-point attempts. 10* (715) Golden St. Warriors
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05-07-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks -6 | Top | 79-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The Knicks are coming off a poor performance in Game One as they shot just 43.2 percent from the floor and despite scoring 27 points, Carmelo Anthony was just 10-28 from the floor. New York desperately needs to even up this series before going to Indiana as it has already lost home court advantage and cannot afford to go down 2-0 in this series. After getting blown out twice in Atlanta in its first two road playoff games, the Pacers have now won two in a row on the highway but making in three straight will be a challenge as they are still two games under .500 on the road for the season. Their defense has been great the last two games and the offense came to life as well as they shot 48.7 percent from the floor in Game One and had a big edge down low. The home team had won all four regular season meetings, including three by double-digits, and the Knicks won both meetings at home by 12 and 10 points. New York is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points and despite the Sunday loss, it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is 7-15 ATS in 22 road games this season against teams with a winning record and the Knicks fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points after covering three of their last four games in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 49-26 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (710) New York Knicks
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05-03-13 | INDIANA GM6 +2 v. ATLANTA GM6 | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
The home team has absolutely dominated this series with all five hosts winning by double-digits. Going back to the regular season, the home team has won all nine meetings but with that being said, I feel it comes to an end here. The Pacers are the better team in this matchup but they have been far from strong in Atlanta where they have now lost 13 straight meetings. That would make a win here seem bleak and even though the series is on the line for the Hawks, I think Indiana comes in with more energy. This may be the last time the Pacers have a home-court edge in the playoffs so for nothing else, they have to learn to win on the road or they will not be advancing past the next round. Indiana is coming off its best defensive game of the series as it allowed just 33.3 percent shooting from the floor including just 21.4 percent from long range and that has been the strength of this team all season. The Pacers need to keep that rolling and while they have not kept things close in the two games in Atlanta, they have allowed just 43.6 percent shooting in those games. It is the offense that has let them down as it has shot just 32.7 percent in the tow losses. One big factor in favor of the Pacers is free throw shooting as they are hitting 80.1 percent in the series compared to just 65 percent for the Hawks while outscoring them by an average of close to seven ppg from the charity stripe. Indiana falls into a great situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (547) Indiana Pacers
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05-02-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
It is crunch time for both teams tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a win in Game Five to extend the series but still needs to win the last two to take it. The Bulls meanwhile are up 3-2 but are in need of a win here to avoid going back to Brooklyn for Game Seven. With so much on the line, we should expect a game being played where each possession is critical and that will lead to a low scoring affair. The last two games of this series have gone over and we are now seeing a total that is seven points higher than it was in Game Four and 3.5 to 4 points higher than it was in Game Five which is providing excellent value. Injuries remain a big issue on both sides as the injury list is long both ways and that hurts the chemistry of the offenses more than anything. The big one for Chicago is the absence of Kirk Hinrich who is listed as doubtful with a calf injury. He has averaged 14.3 ppg over the last three games he has played in this series before sitting out Game Five. The Bulls defense has responded very well following a poor effort as they are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Brooklyn meanwhile is 25-12 to the under in its last 37 road games after playing a game at home and more recently it is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games playing on two days rest. With the last two games easily going over the number, expect the opposite tonight in what will be a low scoring affair. 10* Under (539) Brooklyn Nets/(540) Chicago Bulls
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05-01-13 | Houston Rockets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Houston has made two huge comebacks in the last two games to keep the series alive and interesting. The Rockets fought back from a 26-point deficit in Game Three but still ended up losing. In Game Four, they came back from a 13-point deficit and were able to hold on to extend the series as the teams head back to Oklahoma City. Houston has kept games close since getting blown out in Game One but I am expecting the Thunder to regain control and end it tonight with a big win. Obviously the loss of Russell Westbrook is huge for the Thunder and this will be the first game back home without him and the home court edge will be a significant difference in picking the whole team up. Without Westbrook, the Thunder have been far less effective on the fast break, scoring just 15 points in the last two games after totaling 45 in the first two. But again, the venue has played a big part in that. Losses have been far and far between for Oklahoma City this season and consecutive losses have been more rare as it is 18-4 following its first 22 losses including going 17-5 ATS in those games. The Thunder have dominated good teams on their home floor as they are 17-6 ATS in 23 home games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma City was favored by double-digits in the first two games at home in this series and the line has come down a decent amount due to the Westbrook injury and I feel there is definitely value to be had. The Thunder have covered six of the last eight home meetings with Houston and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (536) Oklahoma City Thunder
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04-29-13 | Indiana Pacers +2 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
We won with Atlanta on Saturday as the Hawks overcame two losses in Indiana to get back in the series. One of the big reasons for that play on the Hawks was they arguably played better in both games in Indiana as they outshot the Pacers but were killed on the boards and outscored substantially at the free throw line. In Game Three, Atlanta again outshot the Pacers but were still outrebounded and outscored from the charity stripe. The Hawks took advantage of Indiana shooting only 27.2 percent from the floor including a mere 16 percent from long range on 4-25 shooting. I expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way here and despite not having won in Atlanta in 12 straight meetings, they break that streak and take control of this series before heading back home. Indiana matched the lowest-scoring first half in the franchise's playoff history as it scored just 30 points and that alone is motivation enough to come out strong on Monday. After being the more aggressive team in the first two games of this series, the Pacers felt they gave that away on Saturday and if they can establish themselves in that regard once again, Atlanta cannot match up. The Pacers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games coming off a double-digit loss while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit win. Additionally, Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in 13 home games this season coming off a home win while the Pacers fall into a great situation as we play on road teams that are coming off a road loss scoring less than 80 points, playing six or less games in 14 days. This situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (517) Indiana Pacers
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04-28-13 | Denver Nuggets -1.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Denver is now in a must win situation as it needs to even up this series before heading back home. We played on the Nuggets in Game Three and despite another hot shooting performance from Golden St., they nearly pulled out the victory. Give credit to the Warriors for playing two great games without the services of David Lee who was lost for the remainder of the season after getting injured in Game One. I do not expect them to continue on their torrid shooting pace however and it will be up to Denver to play a better second half here. The Nuggets shot just 39 percent, after taking a 12-point lead to the locker room, while the Warriors shot 53.7 in the final two quarters in Game Three. How big is this game for the Nuggets? In 438 best-of-seven NBA series, only eight times has a team gone down 3-1 and come back to eventually win the series. The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record while Golden St. is 8-18 ATS in its 26 games this season following two or more consecutive wins. Denver falls into a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, and playing six or less games in 14 days. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (515) Denver Nuggets
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04-27-13 | INDIANA GM3 v. ATLANTA GM3 -2 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Despite outshooting Indiana both games of this series, the Hawks find themselves down 2-0 after losses by a combined 32 points. Atlanta has outshot the Pacers 49.6 percent to 46.1 percent overall so it hasn't been playing poorly but it has been on the wrong side of the home calls for sure. The difference was rebounding and free throw shooting as Atlanta was outboarded 48-32 including 15-6 on the offensive end while getting outscored at the charity stripe 30-7 in Game One. In Game Two, it was outrebounded 47-41 including 15-11 on the offense end while getting outscored at the free throw line 21-11. Those two categories were the ultimate difference between a close game and a blowout in both of those games and a possible outright Hawks win either time and a series split. A return home should be able to cure things for the Hawks as they are in must win mode and know they cannot let another one slip away. Indiana has lost its last 11 games at Philips Arena including both meetings this season. The Pacers are just 19-21 on the road and they have not even played on the road in nearly two weeks as their last road game of the season at Boston was postponed. Indiana is 5-13 ATS this season in road games against teams with a winning record while going 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after two straight wins by 15 or more points. Atlanta meanwhile is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games after being away from home for seven or more days and it is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread. 10* (506) Atlanta Hawks
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04-26-13 | Denver Nuggets +1 v. Golden State Warriors | 108-110 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Golden St. was able to solve what most teams were not able to do and that is to win in Denver. The Warriors came together as a team after losing Game One in the final seconds and also losing star David Lee for the season with a hip injury by dominating the Nuggets in Game Two. The Warriors shot an insane 64.6 percent from the floor including 56 percent from long range on 14-25 shooting. When they are hot from the floor, the Warriors are nearly impossible to defeat but I expect them to come back down to earth even though they are on their home floor. Denver lost home court advantage with that defeat in Game Two so now its goal is to bounce back here as grab home court back. Denver was not a very good road team as it went just 19-22 on the highway but the Warriors home floor edge isn't all that. Golden St. is 28-13 at home this season which is the worst home record of all Western Conference playoff teams. Denver is 8-1 ATS in its nine games this season revenging a loss of 10 points or more while going 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210. The Warriors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a win and they fall into a negative situation where we play on road teams that are shooting between 33 and 36.5 percent from long range against teams allowing between 33 and 36.5 percent shooting from long range, after a game where they allowed 55 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 62-34 ATS (64.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (743) Denver Nuggets
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 183 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The first two games of this series have gone under the total and by a wide margin for that matter. Game One went under by 26.5 points while Game Two went under the total by 27.5 points. This is creating exceptional value going the other way as tonight's total is 6.5 points less than the Game One Total and 2.5 points less than the Game Two total. This is the lowest over/under in this series since the final game of last season when the posted total was 182.5 and the teams combined for 228 points. Going back to the regular season, the under has come in five straight meetings although two of those would have gone over if being played with tonight's total. I am expecting Boston to play a lot better offensively on its home floor following rough performances in New York the first two games. The 23 points the Celtics scored in the second half of Game Two was the fewest in the team's playoff history and the 25 points scored in the second half of Game One was not much better. The Knicks have limited Boston to 39.2 percent shooting on their home court but New York is clearly not the same team defensively on the road, allowing 46.3 percent shooting this season. Additionally, Boston is much better at home, shooting 47.7 percent from the floor which is sixth highest in the NBA. We play the over involving teams after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or less two straight games. This situation is 46-20 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1996. Also, Boston is 10-4 to the over in its last 14 games after scoring 75 points or fewer in its last game. 10* Over (739) New York Knicks/(740) Boston Celtics
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
The Clippers were able to hold on in Game Two to take a 2-0 lead in this series before heading to Memphis for Game Three. After defeating the Grizzlies in that epic seven-game series a year ago, Los Angeles has not tailed off as it has won five of six meetings this season including both games on this floor so Memphis knows it has to play at a high level to get back into this series. Memphis is 14-1 in its last 15 home games with the lone loss coming against the Clippers on April 13th by four points. The Grizzlies had just come off a big road win at Houston the previous night so the focus may not have been there. Now coming off two straight losses and with the series on the line, the Grizzlies cannot afford to lack any locus. They are 32-9 overall at home and their defense has led the way, allowing just 87 ppg which is the fewest points allowed at home by any team in the NBA. While the Clippers averaged 95 ppg in the two meetings in Memphis, the Grizzlies offense was mostly to blame as they shot a combined 61-172 (35.4 percent) from the floor and that needs to obviously improve. It will tonight. The Grizzlies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams with a winning road record while Los Angeles is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Memphis is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games after playing two straight games as an underdog while going 8-0 ATS in its eight home games this season after losing two of its three previous games. Look for the Grizzlies to get back into the series with a win here. 9* (738) Memphis Grizzlies
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04-25-13 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Miami is clearly the dominant team here and no one didn't say it wasn't going into this series. The Heat are coming off two double-digit wins at home to take a 2-0 series lead and now it shifts to Milwaukee in what is a must win game for the Bucks. Milwaukee played a great game in Miami and they were in it until the Heat pulled away in the fourth quarter but the Bucks hung on for the cover. They outshot Miami 50 percent to 45 percent but Miami benefitted from the home court as it got the call and outscored the Bucks 22-10 from the free throw line which was the ultimate difference. As mentioned before Game Two, the Bucks needed offensive support from players other than Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. Ellis and Jennings combined for 48 points in Game One, and while they indeed got support from others in Game Two, Ellis and Jennings had just 15 combined points on Tuesday night. This is a game that everyone needs to step up to avoid the insurmountable 0-3 series deficit. Miami has won 66 percent of its games as a road favorite but it has covered only 51 percent of those games showing how much it has been overvalued in such situations. The Heat have controlled this season series because of big runs and Milwaukee has to avoid that here. In the two meetings at home, the Bucks won once and were close in the other so the home floor will be a big edge tonight. The Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games following a road trip of seven or more days while Miami is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 road games after covering eight or more of their last 10 against the spread. 10* (734) Milwaukee Bucks
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04-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks +7 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
We played on Atlanta on Sunday and the Hawks went down despite outshooting Indiana 50 percent to 44.9 percent from the floor. The difference was rebounding and free throw shooting as Atlanta was outboarded 48-32 including 15-6 on the offensive end while getting outscored at the charity stripe 30-7. Those two categories were the ultimate difference between a close game and a blowout and a possible outright Hawks win. Head coach Larry Drew called his team out for being soft despite coming out and saying that the game was not called in their favor. With two days in-between games, the Hawks have had a chance to refocus and be more physical here to try and grab a split which would bring the home court edge back to Atlanta. Drew was more upset that his team didn't play through the calls and got beat up inside and out. It is imperative that the Hawks match the Pacers intensity. We have seen zero change in the line from Game One to Game Two and that is in our favor here based on the bounce angle as a team that loses usually sees the line go the reverse way so I feel we are on the value side here. Despite being on a four-game, non-cover streak, the Hawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss while going 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games revenging a double-digit loss. Additionally, Atlanta is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover five or six of its last seven games against the spread. Meanwhile the Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory while going just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. 10* (729) Atlanta Hawks
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04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 131-117 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
The Nuggets definitely got away with one in the first game of this series as Andre Miller drove for a layup with 1.3 seconds left to lift Denver to the Game One victory. That opening game scare will provide the Nuggets with a bigger sense of urgency here as they were taken to the brink in Game One and know they cannot afford to let that happen again. Golden St. nearly pulled off the upset that not many teams have been able to accomplish this season and that is winning in Denver where the Nuggets are now an insane 39-3 on the season. And now Golden St. is at an even bigger disadvantage in Game Two as David Lee was lost for the remainder of the postseason because of a torn right hip flexor while the Nuggets will have some fresh legs returning to the lineup as Kenneth Faried expects to play after sitting out the first game with a sprained left ankle. That is a huge replacement for both sides and Denver has to take advantage. The Warriors enjoyed a rebounding advantage in Game One, in large part because of Andrew Bogut and Lee's 14 rebounds apiece. So rebounding now certainly becomes an issue. Also, the Warriors won't be able to run the high pick and roll with Stephen Curry and Lee which became one of their go-to plays. The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in 12 games this season after consecutive covers while Denver 11-2 ATS this season after failing to cover four or five of its last six games against the spread and it falls into a great situation where we play on favorites that have won 20 or more of their last 25 games with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 63-35 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (726) Denver Nuggets
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04-23-13 | Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks OVER 185 | 71-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Game One between Boston and New York was ugly but we have come to see that at times for the Celtics in the postseason over the recent years. After 102 points were scored during the first half in Game One on Saturday, the teams combined for just 61 points in the second half including a mere 26 points in the fourth quarter. Needless to say, the game stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter as the under cashed by 26 points. That was the fourth straight meeting to stay under the total in this series and I feel that is helping us with the value tonight as we are catching by far the lowest total we have seen in this series this season. This number has dropped by as many as four and a half points in some spots which is giving us tremendous value going the other way by taking the bounce angle or the zig zag into account. While the defenses can be given some credit for the low scoring effort in Game One, the offenses were clearly out of synch and after playing a game and having two days off since then, I expect a lot of those issues to be worked out in Game Two. Boston needs to run a cleaner offense, with better spacing and much smarter passes while the Knicks need to shoot better and part of that will come by doing a better job in transition. The over is 6-2 in the Knicks last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the over is 5-1 in the Celtics last six games against the Eastern Conference. Additionally, Boston is 20-9 to the over after having lost two of their last three games this season. 9* Over (723) Boston Celtics/(724) New York Knicks
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04-23-13 | Milwaukee Bucks +14 v. Miami Heat | 86-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Not many people gave Milwaukee even a slim chance of taking this series and after getting thumped in Game One on Sunday, those predictions are holding truer for some. I don't think the Bucks are going to go down without a fight though and after losing the first game by 23 points, look for some adjustments and a better focused effort. Two of the four regular season meetings were on the Bucks side as they won one and lost another in overtime while the two losses were due to simply one bad quarter so it isn't like Milwaukee has been totally dominated this season by the Heat. They actually matchup relatively well but they cannot allow the Heat to shoot 56 percent and cannot get outscored 27-12 at the free throw line like they were in Game One. Miami is clearly the better team but we have to pick our spots when playing against them and I feel this is one of those spots as we are playing a bounce angle here as well and with value as Milwaukee is now getting a better line than last game. The Bucks goal is to get something going on offense as Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis need some help on the offensive end. They combined for 48 points in Game One but the rest of the team had only 39 points on top of that. The Bucks have a solid contrarian situation on their side as we play on road underdogs having lost eight or more of their last 10 games going up against an opponent having won eight or more of their last 10 games. This situation is 70-29 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (721) Milwaukee Bucks
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