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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-18 | Twins v. White Sox +106 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Chicago won last night in Minnesota to make it five wins in its last six games and now the teams head to Chicago for the next two games. The White Sox have struggled both at home and on the road so the fact they are home underdogs tonight should come as no surprise with the pitching matchup and what the public sees. The offense has been hot as Chicago has averaged 7.4 rpg over this stretch and has a chance to keep it going here. The Twins have been playing well this month but most of the success has taken place at home where they have gone 19-6 over their last 25 games but they are just 2-8 over their last 10 road games. And it has not just been against good teams as going back, the Twins are 1-7 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Jose Berrios gets the attention here as he is an All Star, but he has struggled since a good start to the season. He had a 3.15 ERA through his first 16 starts but he has posted a 4.30 ERA over his last 10 games. He prefers pitching at home as opposed to on the road and this has been the case his whole career as he has a 3.75 ERA in 31 home games but that jumps to a 5.27 ERA in 34 road games and going back, the Twins are 4-18 in his last 22 road starts. White Sox fans will get their first look at Michael Kopech who is making his Major League debut. He was traded over from Boston in the Chris Sale deal and he is the top pitching prospect on the team while being the overall No. 9 prospect in baseball as of last month. He posted a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts this season at Triple-A Charlotte with 170 strikeouts in 126. innings and has been outstanding over his past seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA over that stretch. 10* (920) Chicago White Sox |
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08-21-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -131 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. If there is any chance for Washington to make a push in the National League East, it starts tonight in what is the start of a crucial four-week stretch. This is the first of nine games against the Phillies with three games against the Braves in there as well and these three to start the week are the only ones of those 12 that are at home. The National lost two of three games against Miami to open this homestand, certainly not ideal for a playoff push. The Nationals are 10-4 in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. Philadelphia lost its games on Saturday and Sunday as well and finished with a disappointing 3-4 homestand but it still possesses a solid 41-22 record at home. The road is a different story however as the Phillies are just 27-34 and going back they are 44-72 in their last 116 games as underdogs of +150 or less. Vincent Velazquez gets the ball for Philadelphia and he is coming off a pair of poor outings which is worrisome at this point in the season. He has pitched better on the road than at home, but the Phillies are 0-5 in his last five road starts. Washington counters with Tanner Roark who has turned things back around after a rough stretch before the All Star Break. Since then, he has put together five straight quality starts, good for a 1.77 ERA. The Nationals are 5-1 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on National League home favorites with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.25 to 1.35 going up against a team with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.25 to 1.35. This situation is 35-10 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (904) Washington Nationals |
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08-20-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers took tow of three in Seattle over the weekend and have won three of their last four games following a five-game losing streak that sent them into third place in the National League West. They are two games behind Arizona and a game and a half behind Colorado which is also the deficit for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Dodgers are 92-43 in their last 135 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis lost Sunday against Milwaukee which put a temporary halt on their hot streak where they were 10-1 over their previous 11 games. St. Louis has won five straight road games, but it has not faced a winning team on the road since late July. Los Angeles sends Alex Wood to the hill and he has been excellent of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight starts, posting a 2.53 ERA over that stretch. Going back, the Dodgers are 17-4 in his last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis counters with Austin Gomber who has gotten off to a solid start since entering the rotation. He has made four starts and has allowed two runs or less three times but only one of those games came against a winning team at that team is just one game over .500. Los Angeles is 62-29 in their last 91 games against left-handed starters and fall into a solid situation where we play against National League underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are averaging 4.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 83-21 (79.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-19-18 | Astros -144 v. A's | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Just like that, Oakland is in first place in the American League West thanks to its second straight victory over Houston to open this series. Like Colorado, the A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball not named the Red Sox as they are 40-13 over their last 53 games and have made up over 12 games in the division. Oakland can take over first place by itself with a win, but we do not see that happening today in what is a bad matchup. Houston got off to an uneven start this season, but then caught fire in mid-May to cement a sizable lead in the division however it has been a rough stretch for the Astros as they have lost seven of their last eight games. This is a huge game to get back on top as they head to Seattle after this and the Mariners are right on their tails also. Despite the losses in the first two games, Houston still has the second best road record in baseball and it hands the ball to Justin Verlander to help stop the bleeding. He is coming off a solid outing against the Rockies and he has been at his best on the road with a 1.74 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 11 starts, 10 of which have been quality outings. He has dominated Oakland in the past with his last six starts being quality outings including both this season. Sean Manaea is coming off a quality outing as well, but he has been up and down of late and he has struggled against Houston this season. Here, we play on favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .215 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. This situation is 55-13 (80.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (927) Houston Astros |
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08-19-18 | Rockies v. Braves -127 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -127 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We are going back to the well one more time with the Braves after a brutal loss last night as they blew a 3-0 lead in the ninth inning with two outs and nobody on before eventually losing in extra innings. Atlanta ha dropped the first three games of this series and last night was the second time in the first three games that it has allowed three ninth-inning runs to eventually lose. The Braves are still a half-game up on the Phillies in the National League East thanks to another gem from Jacob deGrom in his win over Philadelphia yesterday. The Rockies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last couple months and they can take the lead in the National League West with a win and an Arizona loss, but we do not see either happening today. German Marquez takes the hill for Colorado and while he has had his struggles at home, he has been solid on the road with a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts but this is not a good spot. He allowed seven runs against Atlanta in his first start against the Braves this season and on the year, he has allowed 20 home runs, which is tied for tenth most in the National League, and the Braves are 11-3 after two straight games with no home runs this season. Anibal Sanchez has to be at the top of the list for most surprising pitcher as he has a 3.07 ERA through 16 starts after posting a 5.67 ERA over the last three years covering 415.2 innings. The Braves are 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves |
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08-18-18 | Giants -143 v. Reds | 1-7 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Things are not looking good for San Francisco which is back to a game under .500 and 6.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League with six teams ahead of it that it would have to pass. The Giants lost 2-1 last night which was the beginning of a stretch of ten games against thee teams which are 17, 16 and 14 games under .500 so clearly this is a big stretch and they have a good advatnage tonight. Cincinnati snapped a four-game slide with the victory, but the offense is still struggling by scoring three runs or less in the last five games while averaging 2.2 rpg. The Reds are hitting just .208 against lefties over that stretch and have a tough matchup with Madison Bumgarner. He has a solid 2.71 ERA in 13 games since coming back from injury and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of those games. Matt Harvey is coming off a quality start against Arizona, which was his first one since June 26th and Cincinnati has gone 0-3 in his last three starts after winning his previous game. Here, we play against National League home underdogs that are averaging between 4.0 to 4.5 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 52-15 (77.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (957) San Francisco Giants |
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08-18-18 | Rockies v. Braves -149 | 5-3 | Loss | -149 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. We lost with the Braves last night as Sean Newcombe got hit pretty hard in his 5.1 innings and they are now just a half-game ahead of the Phillies in the National League East. It was the second straight loss for Atlanta which opened this roadtrip 6-1, so it needs to close the weekend strong and it has the pitching matchups both days to do so. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Colorado has been red hot by going 28-14 over its last 42 games and it remains a game and a half behind Arizona for first place in the National League West. The Rockies have been solid on the road despite below average hitting and pitching numbers and they have a .230 average and a 4.23 ERA. Mike Foltynewicz looks to keep rolling as he has tossed three straight quality starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over that stretch. He is fifth in the National League in ERA. Antonio Senzatela has been up and down since entering the rotation as he has a 3.70 ERA in five starts but his ERA is 5.71 in three road starts. Here, we play on National League favorites that are hitting between .255 and .269 and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 97-32 (75.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (960) Atlanta Braves |
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08-18-18 | Royals +123 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 123 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Yes, we are betting on the second worst team in baseball. Even bad teams win at least 30 percent of the time so picking the right spots is essential and this is one of those. As no surprise, the Royals come as underdogs once again, but they possess a significant edge on the mound in a good spot to steal Game Two. The White Sox have won three straight games and have been playing solid baseball this month as they are 8-7 in August but three of those losses came with Dylan Covey was on the hill and all were at home. He has a 6.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 16 starts and the numbers are not much better at home where he has a 5.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. The White Sox are 0-5 in his last five home starts. Brad Keller has been a solid addition to the rotation as he has a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts which came after 21 relief appearances. His first start here was not good but he came back by allowing two runs in 6.2 innings in his encore against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Here, we play against American League home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start. This situation is 33-14 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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08-17-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Arizona took the opener of this series last night to maintain its 1.5-game lead over Colorado in the National League West. It moved to 3-3 on this current roadtrip and the success should continue as the Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Padres have lost four straight games as the offense continues to produce nothing as they have scored just nine runs over the three games. San Diego has lost 21 of its last 26 home games. Arizona sends Robbie Ray to the hill and has admittedly been inconsistent this season as Arizona has lost his last five starts but he pitched well in the three road outings. He has been exceptional away from home with a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and going back, the Diamondbacks are 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Additionally, Arizona is 10-0 in his last 10 road games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. Joey Lucchesi has pitched well for San Diego this season, but he is coming off his first quality outing since April 15th and that was just the third time all season he was able to go six innings. The Padres are 0-6 in his last six starts against the National League West. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75. This situation is 87-37 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-17-18 | Rockies v. Braves -124 | 11-5 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Braves dropped the opener of this series last night and it was not pretty. They blew a 3-2 lead as they allowed three runs in the ninth inning that was started by an error on a routine ground ball and this snapped their five-game winning streak. Their lead in the National League was dropped to a game and a half but we expect a rebound tonight as they put the Thursday nightmare behind them. The Braves are 6-0 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Colorado continues to make a charge in the National League West as it has overtaken the Dodgers for second place and currently sits a game and a half behind Arizona. The Rockies have been great on the road with a 34-29 record and that is keeping this line down where the value is on the home team. The one weakness that has not been overly damaging as of yet is the bullpen which possesses a 5.12 ERA, third worst in baseball. Sean Newcombe gets the ball for Atlanta and he has been having a great season with a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 23 starts. He has struggled during the day, but he has a 2.31 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 12 starts under the lights. Colorado is hitting just .208 against left-handed pitching over its last 10 games. Kyle Freeland is having an equally good season as his numbers match those of Newcombe, but he has struggled on the road, especially of late with a 4.70 ERA in his last three road starts. He catches Atlanta at a bad time as the Braves are hitting .297 over their last 10 games against lefty pitching. 9* (910) Atlanta Braves |
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08-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Mets and Phillies split their doubleheader yesterday with New York scoring a franchise record 24 runs in the opener, but Philadelphia came back with a 9-6 victory in the nightcap. The Phillies are now a game and a half behind the Braves in the National League East and they look to continue their home domination as they became the first team in the National League to get to 40 wins. New York has had a surprisingly good roadtrip with a 5-3 record but make no mistake, this is a bad team with an offense that is about to hit reality after scoring 46 runs over their last three games. The Mets are 18-43 in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning record. Aaron Nola gets the ball at home where he has been unbeatable this season as he is 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts, all resulting in wins. 10 of those 11 games have been quality outings and he has faced the Mets at home twice over two years where he allowed two runs in 13 innings. Noah Syndergaard is a healthy underdog here based on the Nola success at home and while an argument can be made for backing him at this price, he has not been great since coming back from injury. The Mets are 2-7 in his last nine starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Additionally, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -150 or more that are averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better going up against a starter whose ERA is 3.70 or better. This situation is 69-17 (80.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-16-18 | Blue Jays -128 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with Toronto last night as it won its second straight 6-5 game and looks to take the series tonight. The Blue Jays are now 20-7 in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and thy are in good position to keep the offense rolling tonight before heading to New York for a three-game set with the Yankees. They were able to get to Jorge Lopez who was making just his third Major League start and tonight they will be facing a pitcher making his first ever Major League start. Kansas City remains a half-game ahead of Baltimore for the worst record in baseball as the Royals are now 48 games under .500 which almost seems unfathomable considering they won the World Series just three years ago. The Royals are 19-46 in their last 65 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Sam Gaviglio takes the hill for Toronto and he has been having an inconsistent season and while it may be surprising that he is favored on the road because of his numbers, it is not surprising. His numbers on the road are not good but it has been a brutal slate as all eight of his road starts have come against teams with winning records including five against teams currently holding down playoff spots. Glenn Sparkman has pitched in 10 Major League games, all in relief, and has an 8.47 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over 17 innings. We just cannot see him being able to have much success here. 10* (969) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-16-18 | Nationals +122 v. Cardinals | 5-4 | Win | 122 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. The playoff hopes for Washington are getting bleak following its fourth straight loss as it is now a game under .500 for a team that was supposed to win the National League East and be a serious World Series contender. The Nationals have a nine-game deficit behind the division-leading Braves in the National League East and seven games out in the Wild Card chase. They will have to win 71 percent of their remaining games, which is a 115-win pace, to reach 90 wins on the season and even that is no playoff guarantee. St. Louis meanwhile has won eight straight games to pull within four games of the Cubs in the National League Central and to move within a game of the second spot in the Wild Card standings. The Cardinals have been solid at home this month, but they are 1-4 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. Tanner Roark gets the ball for Washington and after a rough stretch between mid-June and mid-July, he has settled back down to post a 1.21 ERA over his last four starts, all being quality outings. His numbers have been better on the road than at home and we see that continuing here. Luke Weaver is back after missing his last start because of a cut on his right index finger. Even though it is supposedly healed, it could still affect him, and he has been pretty inconsistent of late. He has a 5.13 ERA in 10 home starts, with only four of those being quality outings and the Cardinals are 1-5 in his last six starts following a quality outing in his last start. 9* (957) Washington Nationals |
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08-15-18 | Giants v. Dodgers -174 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. Many expected the Dodgers to run away with the National League West, however a slow start had them play catch up, which they in fact did, but it has been a rough stretch of late. They have lost five straight games and all of those could have been wins and the Dodgers have been tied or had the lead entering the ninth inning over their last four games, so it has been a tough time for the bullpen. The brawl last night could be a motivator going forward and the Dodgers are 4-0 in their last four games after losing the first two games of a series. The Giants have won three straight games to move back over .500 and they sit five games behind Arizona in the National League West. They have been a poor road team this season as they are 27-34 and going back, they are 3-8 in their last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the hill for the first time in three and a half months as he has been out with a groin injury. He was great early on this season, posting a 2.12 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in his first six starts before going down. Ryu has looked sharp in both of his rehab outings so there should be nothing to hold him back tonight. Derek Holland has pitched pretty well for the Giants but he has gone three straight games without a quality start. He has struggled under the lights as he has a 4.59 ERA in 14 starts compared to a 2.84 ERA in eight daytime starts. 7* (908) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-15-18 | Blue Jays -140 v. Royals | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Toronto scored two runs in the eighth inning to pull out the come-from-behind victory and while putting together winning streaks has been a challenge of late, the Blue Jays are in a good spot tonight. this line came out late due to the Royals pitching situation and that is where Toronto has the real edge. The Blue Jays are 20-7 in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. While Baltimore has taken the brunt of the jokes for having an awful season, Kansas City is not far behind as the loss last night dropped the Royals to 36-83 including 17-43 at home. The Royals are 21-48 in their last 69 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Jorge Lopez will be making his first start for the Royals and his first start in MLB since 2015. We are not expecting much as he has been used as a reliever for over a year in the Brewers organization. There is not much recent data to go on with him working as a starter, but he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings while striking out seven in a start for Triple-A Omaha last week. This is a tough spot against a Blue Jays team that ranks eighth in the majors with a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since June 1st. Marco Estrada has been up and down for the Blue Jays this season, but he has been pitching better. He had a 5.68 ERA through May, but he has posted a 3.80 ERA over his last nine games. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (915) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-15-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -134 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Milwaukee will not go away in the National League Central as the 7-0 victory yesterday afternoon brought it back to within two games of the Cubs in the National League Central. The Brewers were 2-5 over their previous seven games so they are not playing great right now and have gone just 1-4 in their last five games following a victory. The Cubs have been stuck in neutral as well as they are 2-3 over their last five games and could not build off of that miraculous walk-off grand slam win, partly because they had Monday off. They have been a great bounce back team of late as the Cubs are 5-1 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while going 17-5 in their last 22 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kyle Hendricks has been on a pretty good roll as he has a 3.46 ERA over his last seven starts and the Cubs have won five of his last six starts at home. Pitching in Wrigley Field and during the day have been his two best situations and he will make Milwaukee earn it as his 34 walks are fifth fewest in the National League. Junior Guerra has tossed two straight quality outings but those were at home where eight of his last 11 starts have taken place. In the three road starts, he has a 9.64 ERA. The Brewers are 3-13 in his last 16 starts as an underdog of +150 or less. 9* (902) Chicago Cubs |
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08-14-18 | Diamondbacks -169 v. Rangers | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona let us down last night as it fell to 1-3 on this current roadtrip but thanks to the Dodgers losing four straight games, it remains in first place in the National League West. We will be backing the Diamondbacks again tonight as they are still a solid 11-4 in their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record while going 6-0 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Texas snapped a two-game slide with the win last night and it has won three straight games at home, but it is still 10 games under .500 at home and the Rangers are just 22-46 in their last 68 home games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has another pitching edge tonight and while it did not pan out last night, tonight will be a different story. Patrick Corbin is on the hill tonight and he is having a solid season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 24 starts and he has nearly identical home/road splits. While he enters a hitter-friendly park, he is more than used to it as Chase Field is the same as well. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in his last seven road starts. Yovani Gallardo has a 4.55 ERA at home yet the Rangers are 5-0 in his five home start thanks to 11.4 rpg of support. That will not be happening tonight. 8* (973) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-14-18 | Red Sox v. Phillies +130 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Phillies are coming off a poor roadtrip where they went 2-4 and sit a game behind Atlanta in the National League East. Nothing is a guarantee at this point as there are five teams within 2.5 games of each other for the two Wild Card spots so while it might sound like a broken record, every game counts. Philadelphia is 38-18 at home, which is the best home record in the National League and the third best in baseball, trailing only the Red Sox and Yankees. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball and it is not even close so stepping in front of them can only be done in certain spots and this is one of those. Philadelphia is 9-1 this season at home following a loss by four runs or more and square off against Rick Porcello. He started off the season great with a 3.44 ERA through his first 16 starts but has posted a 6.15 ERA over his last eight starts. Nick Pivetta counters for the Phillies and after two bad starts following the All Star Break, he has rebounded with two quality outings, both resulting in victories. The Phillies are 6-2 in his last eight home starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (968) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-14-18 | Mets v. Orioles -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Mets are coming off an upset win last night over the Yankees to make it two straight wins but winning three in a row will be a challenge as it has done so only three times since May 22nd. The Mets are just 11-28 in their last 39 games following any sort of win. Additionally, they are 0-6 in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Baltimore owns the worst record in baseball and is coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, but the Orioles catch a winnable home game which have been few and far between as the home schedule has been brutal for the last two months. They are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Baltimore hands the ball to Andrew Cashner who has been very inconsistent this season, but he has been solid for the most part of late. He had a horrible start in Texas at the least pitcher-friendly park in baseball, and a bad home start against the Yankees but he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his other 16 starts dating back to May 4th. New York turns to Jason Vargas who has yet to toss a quality outing in 11 starts and the Mets are 1-6 in his last seven starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (970) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-13-18 | Mariners v. A's -116 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought, four-game series sweep over Houston to move to within four games of the Astros in the American League West and to within a game and a half of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Mariners were in a big time slump prior to those four games and we can see them coming back to reality as they conclude this roadtrip with another tough series. Oakland took two of three games against the Angels in Los Angeles as it continues its red hot run. The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last two months as they are 36-12 over their last 48 games and they were able to leapfrog over the Mariners in the American League West over the last week. Oakland is just 2.5 games behind Houston in the division and it is in a good spot to keep rolling as it has won 15 of its last 18 home games while going 18-4 in its last 22 games against American League teams with a batting average of .265 or worse. Sean Manaea gets the ball for Oakland and he is coming off a poor outing against the Dodgers where he lacked him typical command, but we should see a bounce back here. He has been great at home with a 3.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Marco Gonzales is also coming off a poor outing and his was much worse against a much worse team as he allowed seven runs in five innings at Texas. He has a 4.42 ERA on the road and faces an Oakland team that is 9-2 in its last 11 games against left-handed starters. 10* (912) Oakland A's |
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08-13-18 | Diamondbacks -157 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -157 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Supreme Annihilator. Arizona was able to salvage a game in Cincinnati on Sunday as it took over sole possession of first place in the National League West thanks to the Dodgers losing their final three games in Colorado. The Diamondbacks improved to 33-25 on the road and get another schedule break by playing a poor team and going back, they are 11-3 in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record. Texas lost three of four against the Yankees in New York to fall 16 games under .500. The Rangers have actually played better on the road than at home and they have gone 21-46 in their last 67 home games against teams with a winning record. Zack Greinke takes the mound for Arizona and while he is having a great season, his recent run has been sensational. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight games, posting a 1.64 ERA in the process. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in his last six road starts while going 21-6 in his last 27 starts when playing against a team with a losing record. Bartolo Colon became the winningest Latin-born pitcher in baseball history with his 246th win in his last start. He has struggled of late as he has posted a 7.61 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break. He has struggled in these spots as his teams are 3-16 in his last 19 start as an underdog of +125 to +175. Additionally, we play against home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more that are hitting .260 or worse and starting a pitcher with a 7.00 ERA or worse over his last three starts going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 55-12 (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (915) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-12-18 | Pirates v. Giants -108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Time is running out on both the Pirates and Giants in their pursuit of a Wild Card spot in the National League and it will be up to San Francisco on Sunday to go for a series split. After scoring 13 runs on Friday, the Giants were shutout last night 4-0 despite equaling the Pirates with six hits. The Giants are 7-0 in their last seven games during Game Four of a series. Pittsburgh is 4-2 on this current roadtrip but going back, the Pirates are 17-38 in their last 55 road games against teams with a winning home record. One of the pleasant surprises for what has been a disappointing season overall for the Giants has been the pitching of rookie Dereck Rodriguez who has a 2.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts and two relief appearances. He has been even better at home with a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in six starts. Joe Musgrove has posted three quality outings since the All Star Break, but this is a pace unlikely to continue as an early start is not a good thing where he has a 6.65 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four daytime starts. We play against teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .280 or better over their last 20 games, in August games. This situation is 97-46 (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants |
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08-12-18 | Twins v. Tigers -114 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Detroit won for us on Friday, but it was stymied by Kyle Gibson last night as a late rally just fell short. The Tigers are still above .500 at home and are short favorites this afternoon despite what is a solid pitching advantage. The Tigers are 5-2 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota won a rare road game last night as they are now 21-38 away from home and those 38 losses are the third most in all of baseball. The Twins needed a starting pitcher on Sunday after Adalberto Mejia was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a sore wrist. Kohl Stewart will be making his Major League debut today and we are not expecting much. He struggled with striking hitters out and his control started to disappear in 2016 and 2017. Stewart went 3-7 with a 4.47 ERA between Class AAA Rochester and Class AA Chattanooga this season. Matthew Boyd is coming off a poor outing at Los Angeles, but he has been great at home with a 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 10 starts. Here, we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 36-12 (75 percent) since 1997. 9* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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08-12-18 | Mets -147 v. Marlins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We won with the Marlins last night as they took the second game of this series in extra innings, but we go the other way today in a significant pitching mismatch. New York looks to get its offense going against after scoring 14 runs in its previous two games prior to last night. It was a rare win for Miami on Saturday as it is 5-13 over its last 18 games and it has to deal with Noah Syndergaard today which is not good for an offense that has scored three runs or less in 12 of its last 15 games. Syndergaard has been average since coming back from the DL, but he is 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA in six career starts against the Marlins. Wei-Yin Chen counters for the Marlins and while he has a good track record at home, he has posted a 5.86 ERA in five daytime starts. The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start and with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season. This situation is 72-31 (69.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (951) New York Mets |
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08-11-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +128 | 2-3 | Win | 128 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. After losing the series opener on Thursday, Colorado bounced back with a 5-4 come-from-behind win last night to snap a three-game slide. The Rockies can use that momentum for the final two games where they can close the gap in the division and the Wild Card race. The Rockies are 10-3 in their last 13 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Dodgers remain tied with Arizona for first place in the National League West, so this is a big weekend for them as well but being listed as a significant road favorite in this matchup is not ideal. The Dodgers are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Kyle Freeland has been extremely consistent this season with a 3.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts. While many will be surprised that he has a 2.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 home starts, seven of which have been quality outings, he is familiar with pitching in the thin air of Colorado as he grew up pitching in Denver. The Rockies are 16-9 in his last 25 starts as an underdog. Walker Buehler has a 2.77 ERA at home but that jumps to 5.26 on the road and was hit hard in his lone start at Coors Field. 9* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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08-11-18 | Diamondbacks -149 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -149 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Diamondbacks were shut out in this series opener last night 3-0 but a Dodgers loss as well kept them in a tie with Los Angeles atop the National League West. It has been an up and down run of late for Arizona, especially with the offense but that should change tonight and going back, the Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. The Reds are still four games under .50 at home and they have struggled to put together consecutive solid efforts as going back, they are 0-5 in their last five games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Arizona sends Robbie Ray to the hill and has admittedly been inconsistent this season as Arizona has lost his last five starts but he pitched well in the two road outings. He has been exceptional away from home with a 2.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and going back, the Diamondbacks are 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Matt Harvey has struggled since the All Star Break with a 10.66 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in three starts. He has shown some positive signs since coming to Cincinnati, but they are rare as he has been awful most of the time with only three quality outings in 15 starts. 9* (903) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-11-18 | Mets v. Marlins -109 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. New York won the series opener last night to make it two straight wins but winning three in a row will be a challenge as it has done so only twice since May 22nd. The Mets are just 10-27 in their last 37 games following any sort of win while going 8-20 in their last 28 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Miami has lost three straight and nine of 10 games, but it is in good position tonight. Despite the Friday loss, the Marlins are 24-11 in their last 35 home games against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. Dan Straily gets the ball for Miami and he had a solid run from late June to the All Star Break, but he has struggled in three starts since then. To his credit, those games came against Washington, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The Marlins are 7-1 in his last eight starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Corey Oswalt has pitched well since entering the rotation, but this is his first road start since July 4th and he has a 7.94 ERA in two road starts. One of those came here in his first ever start back in June and Miami got to him for six runs in 2.2 innings. 10* (908) Miami Marlins |
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08-10-18 | Twins v. Tigers +109 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 109 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Minnesota and Detroit are playing out the season as both are double-digit games out in the division and the Wild Card race. The Tigers are back home following a six-game roadtrip where they went 0-6 against Oakland and Los Angeles to fall to 18-41 on the road and those 41 losses are the most on baseball. They are a much more respectable 29-27 at home. Minnesota lost three of four in Cleveland and its 20-37 record on the highway is tied for third worst in baseball. Ervin Santana is making his fourth start with the Twins and while they have won all three of those games, it has had nothing to do with good pitching. He has posted a 6.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 14.2 innings and with the Twins out of the playoff picture, there is no reason to push him over the final few weeks of the season. Santana had not played since he underwent surgery to remove calcium deposits from his right middle finger in early February. Jordan Zimmerman gets the ball for Detroit and following a rough three-game stretch, he rebounded with a quality outing in his last start against Oakland. His last home start was not a good one as he allowed five runs in three innings but that came against Cleveland and overall, he has been solid at home. In six starts, he has a 3.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and take that Indians start out and his ERA is 2.59 in the other five outings. 10* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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08-09-18 | Pirates v. Giants -131 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -131 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Giants wasted a pair of strong efforts by Dereck Rodriguez and Madison Bumgarner as they lost both games against Houston to fall a game under .500 and drop back to seven games back in the Wild Card race. They are still a healthy 32-24 at home where both offense and pitching have been consistent, and this is a big series if they have any shot of making a late playoff push. San Francisco is 23-11 in its last 34 home games after allowing three runs or less two straight games while going 7-0 in its last seven games following an off day. The Pirates took two of three in Colorado to gain some ground, moving to five games back in the Wild Card chase. They are one game under .500 on the road and are in a tough spot here as they are 1-11 in their last 12 road games against left-handed starters. Andrew Suarez has not been at his best of late, but he is back home where he has a 3.64 ERA, which is nearly two runs less than his road ERA. Pittsburgh counters with Ivan Nova who has struggled the last two years with the Pirates. He is similar to Suarez in that he pitches much better at home with a 3.55 ERA compared to a 5.40 ERA on the highway. The Giants are 16-6 in their last 22 home games against right-handed starters and they fall into a solid situation where we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season but with a 7.50 ERA or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 111-44 (71.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) San Francisco Giants |
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08-08-18 | Dodgers v. A's +155 | 2-3 | Win | 155 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The A's were the only setback on our card last night as Sean Manaea was pulled early and the offense managed only two runs and the six-game winning streak was snapped. Thanks to the Mariners also losing, Oakland still remains two games up on Seattle for the second spot in the American League Wild Card race and despite being a huge underdog tonight, it has a great chance to bounce back tonight. The A's are 33-11 over their last 44 games which includes a 14-3 record in their last 17 home games. The Dodgers moved ahead of Arizona in the National League West so there is a lot on the line for both teams and Los Angeles is the big consensus play based on the starting pitching. Clayton Kershaw is pitching very well but he has not been as dominant as we are accustomed to, yet he is still bringing in overpriced moneylines. This is the third straight game that the Oakland offense has faced a left-handed starter and that is a significant advantage with the rarity of facing southpaw pitching. Mike Fiers is making his Oakland debut after having a great season in Detroit where he posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 21 starts. Here, we play on American League averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg going up against a National League starter with an ERA of 3.000 or less. This situation is 57-33 (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (978) Oakland A's |
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08-08-18 | Padres v. Brewers -178 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Brewers have lost two straight games including the series opener last night as Chase Anderson got lit up after his team gave him a 4-0 lead after one inning. We expect Milwaukee to rebound tonight as it still holds the lead in the National League Wild Card race but not by much as there is a half-game difference between the three top teams. When there are wins to be had that are for the picking, the Brewers need to take advantage. San Diego as won two straight games but it still 25 games under .500 and possesses the worst record in the National League. Despite the consecutive victories, the Padres are 16-35 in their last 51 games following a win. Milwaukee hands the ball to Jhoulys Chacin who has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.89 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 24 starts and take away two bad outings against the Dodgers and Cardinals and his ERA drops to 3.57. The Brewers are 11-2 is his 13 starts against National League teams averaging 4.0 rpg or less while going 11-2 this season when favored by -110 or more. Brett Kennedy is making his Major League debut and while he has been dominant at AAA this season, he has not been considered a top prospect and this is a big jump. 8* (962) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-08-18 | Cardinals v. Marlins +108 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We won with the Cardinals last night which had a significant pitching advantage and they barely snuck it out but tonight, the edge goes the other way. Despite that, St. Louis is still favored which is not surprising based on overall records, but Miami has an excellent shot to win this series. The Cardinals are in a playoff race as they remain four games behind Atlanta for the second Wild Card spot in the National League, but they have been unable to put anything together by going 3-11 in their last 14 games following a win. The Marlins are 11-5 in their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and face John Gant who has been average and is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed six runs in four innings against the Pirates. Three of his four road starts have been non-quality outings and the Marlins are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against right-handed starters. The real story here is Trevor Richards who had a 5.24 ERA after his first two starts in July, but since then, he has posted a 0.76 ERA in his last four starts. He has been solid at home this season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven starts. 10* (960) Miami Marlins |
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08-07-18 | Dodgers v. A's +107 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Dodgers dropped two of three games over the weekend against the Astros and while some will think this is a step down in competition, that is far from the truth. Los Angeles trails Arizona by a half-game in the National League West and it comes into tonight as a road favorite despite possessing a worse record than Oakland. The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last seven weeks as they have gone 33-10 over their last 43 games including winning 14 of their last 16 home games. Sean Manaea took some heat after his no-hitter against the Red Sox back in April, but he has turned the corner by allowing three runs or less in 11 straight starts. This run includes five consecutive quality outings at home in which Oakland has won all five. The Dodgers are hitting .088 over their last 10 games against left-handed pitching. Rich Hill counters for the Dodgers and he has been nearly as good, but this is not a good time and place as Oakland has won six straight home games against left-handed starters. Additionally, we play against road teams that are hitting.175 or worse over their last three games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 54-18 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (930) Oakland A's |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals -155 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Cardinals dropped Game One of this series last night to fall 4.5 games back in the National League Wild Card race with four teams to pass. It has been a strange season for St. Louis as it was expected to contend in the National League Central, but injuries have taken their toll along with the firing of much respected manager Mike Matheny and doing nothing at the trade deadline to make a run. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss while going 24-9 in their last 33 National League road games against teams averaging four or fewer rpg. The Marlins snapped a six-game slide with the win last night and are now riding a three-game home winning streak, but we expect that to end abruptly tonight. Miles Mikolas has emerged as the Cardinals ace as he has posted a 2.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while allowing three runs or less in 18 of his last 20 starts including eight in a row. His road numbers are not as great, but he has yet to lose on the highway in 1 outings. Pablo Lopez has been up and down through his first six big league starts and after allowing nine runs in 11.2 innings in his last two home starts, the struggles continue again tonight. 8* (903) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-07-18 | Reds -101 v. Mets | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Mets lost three of four games to the Braves to open this homestand but were able to recover and win last night thanks to a significant starting pitching advantage. That is far from the case tonight and the line is reflecting that as they go from a big favorite to a light underdog in some shops. Cincinnati has lost three straight and six of its seven games on this current roadtrip where it came in a respectable 22-27 which was good for a decent profit. The Mets have overall struggled at Citi Field as they are 11-25 in their last 36 home games while going 9-26 in their last 35 games following a win. Additionally, New York is 11-28 in its last 39 games against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg. The Mets has Noah Syndergaard on the hill last next and they take a big step down with Jason Vargas tonight. in 11 starts, he has yet to toss a quality outing and while his last two starts since coming off the DL have been better than most, he still allowed seven runs over 9.1 innings. Sal Romano has been really good or really bad depending on the start, but he has fared well in a majority of starts against poor offense and New York fits that bill as it is hitting a mere .215 at home which is the worst average in baseball. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-06-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -129 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Arizona is coming off a series split with San Francisco following a loss on Sunday which brought it back into a tie for first place with the Dodgers in the National League West. The Diamondbacks have the second best road record in the National League, but they are just 30-28 at home which is a surprise considering they had only 29 home losses all of last season but that is keeping the price down in a good spot for tonight. The Phillies are coming off a four-game sweep over Miami to reach five straight wins and increased their lead in the National League East to a game and a half over Atlanta. Their 38 home wins are the most in the National League, but their 25 road wins are tied for second fewest of teams that have a winning record overall. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Godley who has been up and down this season but is coming off his best month where he posted a 1.36 WHIP and .243 BA. He is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed just two hits and no runs in seven innings while striking out 10 Rangers. He has allowed three runs or less in eight of 10 home starts and the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six road games against right-handed starters. Jake Arietta is coming off his second straight quality start but comes into a tough spot as Arizona has been crushing right-handed pitching of late as it is hitting .312 over the last 10 games and the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four games against right-handed starters. Additionally, we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season. This situation is 131-58 (69.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (958) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -147 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Mariners continue to slip in the standings as they are now 2.5 games behind Oakland for the second Wild Card spot in the American League following their fifth consecutive loss. This has turned into a huge game for Seattle which heads out on a 10-game divisional roadtrip starting tomorrow and it is imperative for the offense to get something going. The Mariners have scored three runs or less in six straight games, but they have a great chance to bust out today. The Blue Jays have won three straight games but have not won four in a row since a four-game sweep over the Orioles way back on June 10th. Despite the recent offensive outburst, they are still just 10-24 in their last 34 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Mike Leake gets the ball for the Mariners and he has been surprisingly good after a slow start as he has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his last 16 starts including three straight quality outings. The Mariners are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Sam Gaviglio counters for Toronto and he has a rough July with a 7.30 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six starts. He faces his former team for the first time and the spot is not favorable as we play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 68-26 (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (926) Seattle Mariners |
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08-04-18 | Braves -119 v. Mets | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We were on the Mets last night as Jacob deGrom pitched yet another gem, but his offense let him down again as despite allowing four earned runs in five starts against Atlanta, the Mets did not win a single one of those games. New York is in a bad place right now as the offense has managed an average of 2.1 rpg over its last seven games with only one of those resulting in a victory. Going back, the Mets are 4-22 in their last 26 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. The Braves won their fifth straight game but still sit in second place in the National League East by a half-game as the Phillies have won three in a row. They are 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Kevin Gausman is making his first start for the Braves after being dealt by Baltimore and a change of scenery can do nothing but help. While his numbers this season seem average, which they are, he allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 21 starts with the Orioles. He now has an offense behind him and a renewed confidence after director of pitching Dom Chiti and special assistant to pitching Dave Wallace courted him to Atlanta after working with him earlier in his career. Zack Wheeler counters for New York and he has started the second half with a pair of quality outings, but he has struggled at home with a 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 11 starts and going back, the Mets are 1-8 in Wheelers last nine home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (961) Atlanta Braves |
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08-03-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -165 | 7-2 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. After getting swept in Oakland, Toronto opened this four-game series with a 7-3 win thanks to a strong bullpen performance after Tyler Clippard was chased after just one inning of work. The Blue Jays are just 22-31 on the road and have not won consecutive road games since late June, going 0-5 in their last five road games following a road victory. Additionally, the Blue Jays are 8-24 in their last 32 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Seattle dropped into third place in the American League West with the loss last night and also dropped behind Oakland by a half-game for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Mariners have lost 14 of their last 21 games but most of that damage has come against really good opposition and going back, they are 21-5 in their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. Marco Gonzales has been exceptional in his first full season with Mariners as he has a 3.37 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. While Seattle has been slumping, it has not done so with Gonzales on the hill as it has won his last five starts. The Blue Jays are 7-25 in their last 32 games against left-handed starters. Toronto turns to Ryan Borucki who has been the best pitcher on the staff over the last five weeks with a 2.83 ERA but does not have a win to show for it. He has thrived at home with a 1.35 ERA and 1.03 WHIP but possesses a 4.80 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in three road starts. Here, we play against teams averaging 4.4 to 4.9 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up two or less earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA 3.50 or better. This situation is 125-71 (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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08-03-18 | Braves v. Mets -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. This can be considered a contrarian play despite the Mets being favored and sending the National League ERA leader to the hill. We played against New York last night which lost its third straight game and has dropped five of its last six to remain the second worst team in the National League. The Braves have won four straight games as they sit a half-game behind the Phillies in the National League East and the public is on them tonight despite the pitching disadvantage and a reverse line movement. Atlanta is just 4-7 over its last 11 road games and going back, the Braves are 0-5 in their last five games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Mets held on to Jacob deGrom with trade rumors surrounding the staff ace and it was a smart move. He leads the league with a 1.82 ERA and because the Mets as a while have been horrible, he has only five wins on the season, but that has not stopped his consistency. He has tossed 13 straight quality starts and has allowed more than three runs only once. Another contrarian aspect is the fact that he has faced the Braves four times already this season and while posting a 0.72 ERA, the Mets are 0-4. Anibal Sanchez has been one of the most surprising pitchers this season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 ERA, but he is coming off a poor start and we should start seeing regression. Here, we play against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 55-10 (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) New York Mets |
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08-03-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates -151 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. A surprising buyer at the trade deadline was the Pirates and they send their top prize to the hill tonight. Pittsburgh is 3-3 on this current homestand and sits four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Pirates have excelled of late at home when it counts as they are 9-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. St. Louis concluded its homestand with two wins over the Cubs and it too sits four games out of that final Wild Card spot. It did nothing to better itself however at the trade deadline despite numerous options. The issue for the Cardinals has been stringing together winning streak as going back, they are 2-9 in their last 11 games following a win. Chris Archer makes his Pittsburgh debut tonight and while he had an up and down season in Tampa Bay, he moves to a perfect spot from where he was. He leaves the offensive juggernaut and hitter friendly American League East parks and come to PNC Park, which should be better built for him. He has faced the Cardinals only once in his career which is another added bonus. John Gant counters for the Cardinals and while he has been pretty solid, he comes back to Pittsburgh where he had his worst road start of the season earlier this year. The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. Additionally, we play on National League home favorites with a moneyline between -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season. This situation is 130-58 (69.1 percent) since 1997. 9* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-02-18 | Braves -153 v. Mets | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. The Mets are clearly a mess right now as they lost both games in Washington highlighted by that 25-4 debacle on Tuesday. They own the second worst record in the National League and let us not forget this has come after an 11-1 start to the season. While a return home may seem like a good thing, the Mets are 9-22 in their last 31 home games including 4-11 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record. The Braves have won three straight games after dropping their first three games of their homestand and currently sit a half game behind the Phillies in the National League East. This is a big series as the next six games are against Washington and Milwaukee. Mike Foltynewicz was among the league leaders in ERA, but his last four starts have bumped his ERA up to 3.04 through 20 starts. He has been hurt by the long ball, but the Mets are one of the worst power hitting teams in the league, so we should see him get back on track here. Jason Vargas counters for New York and he has been awful with an 8.36 ERA in 10 starts, none of which have been quality outings. Here, we play against home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start and with an ERA of 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 52-11 (82.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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08-02-18 | Royals v. White Sox -131 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. Chicago has dropped the first two games of this series and looks to end this homestand on a high note this afternoon. It has been a long season as expected for the White Sox as the rebuilding project is in full force, but we do see some big advantages today to help avoid the sweep. Kansas City in on a rare winning streak and it has won three straight games only twice all season long as overall, it is 2-6 following consecutive victories while going back, the Royals are 9-25 in their last 34 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Reynaldo Lopez is coming off his worst start of the season as in 4.1 innings, he allowed eight runs on seven hits with five of those being home runs. July was not a good month, but he has pitched well at home with a 3.15 ERA in eight home starts prior to that game against the Blue Jays. Brad Keller has been hit or miss this season and pitching on the road has been an issue of late as he has posted an 11.04 ERA over his last two road outings. Chicago falls into a strong situation where we play on home teams that are averaging 4.2 or fewer going against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse and with a starting pitcher who allowed seven or more runs last outing. This situation is 32-11 (74.4 percent) since 1997. 9* (968) Chicago White Sox |
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08-01-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals were fairly quiet on trade deadline day with the biggest move sending Tommy Pham to the Rays for three minor leaguers. It was a surprise move considering he was having a good season, so St. Louis did not improve for the present time as it sits 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. Colorado ended July with a 17-6 record and is tied with the Dodgers and Braves for that final Wild Card spot. Only nine of those games were on the road where it went 5-4. Despite being 10 games over .500, the Rockies have a negative scoring differential as the pitching has been inconsistent. Kyle Freeland leads the team in ERA among starters, but he has been more inconsistent on the road than he has at home. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six games against left-handed starter and so far during this homestand, they are hitting .344 against left-handed pitching through five games. St. Louis counters with Luke Weaver who had a rough June but followed that up with a solid July, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four starts. The Cardinals are 15-4 in his last 19 starts against National League teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse while going 5-2 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-31-18 | Indians -150 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Indians dropped the series opener last night as the Twins won on a walk-off double. It gave Minnesota its fifth game-ending win of the year and surprisingly, three of those victories have come against the Indians. Cleveland is still eight games up on Minnesota in the American League Central so wins in the final two games of this series could put an end to the race. Despite the Monday loss, the Indians are 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Minnesota is in seller mode now as it has made trades over the last week and more could be coming. The Twins have been playing better at home, but they are still seven games under .500 overall and they are 5-11 in their last 16 games against team with a winning record. Trevor Bauer has had an outstanding season and it continued with another strong performance last time out against Pittsburgh as he allowed no runs on two hits in seven innings while striking out 12, his ninth double-digit strikeout performance of the season. Kyle Gibson has been pretty solid for Minnesota, but he has been inconsistent of late and he is coming off a start where he tossed a season-high 120 pitches. Here, we play on American League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are averaging 5.1 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better. This situation is 43-9 (82.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (969) Cleveland Indians |
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07-31-18 | Reds v. Tigers -123 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Cincinnati is coming off a solid end to its homestand where it went 5-2 over its last seven games including three straight wins over the Phillies to win that four-game set. The Reds are 10 games under .500 while sitting five games under .500 both at home and on the road. Cincinnati has struggled in these spots as it is 17-44 in its last 61 Interleague road games. The Tigers lost two of three against Cleveland over the weekend to fall back to .500 at home on the season and they have avoided losing streaks as they have won five straight games following a loss. Going back, the Tigers are 42-11 in their last 53 Interleague home games against teams with a losing record. Detroit sends Matthew Boyd to the hill and while his 4.53 ERA may not look great, his 1.20 WHIP shows he is having a better season. He has been particularly solid at home as he has a 3.40 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The Reds counter with Homer Bailey who is having a miserable season with a 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 13 starts and Cincinnati is just 1-12 in those starts. He is coming off a quality outing, but the Reds are 0-5 in his last five starts following a quality performance in his last start. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less in three straight games. This situation is 158-78 (66.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (978) Detroit Tigers |
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07-31-18 | Angels -127 v. Rays | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Angels are coming off a 5-5 homestand to remain a game over .500 overall as the playoff hopes are slowing going away. Los Angeles has not exactly thrived on the road, but it is 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is in the same boat as it has made a recent push after a slow start and sits right at .500 but its 10-game deficit in the Wild Card standings is going to be impossible to overcome. Tampa Bay lost the final three games in Baltimore over the weekend by a combined score of 37-12 and the Rays are now 0-6 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Tyler Skaggs is quietly putting together a spectacular season as he has a 2.62 ERA, which is sixth best in the American League, and he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. His numbers are better on the road with a 2.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts with the Angels going 7-3 in those games. Ryan Stanek goes for Tampa Bay as it is another game that will be tossed by the bullpen as Stanek will go no more than two innings. The Angels fall into a solid situation where we play against American League home teams that are averaging 4.2 rpg or less after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 81-39 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (965) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-30-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -142 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Game of the Month. The Dodgers are back home following a 6-4 roadtrip where they missed out on a four-game sweep against Atlanta over the weekend as they were an out away of getting no-hit on Sunday. Los Angeles is now just a half-game ahead of Arizona in the National League West, but this is a great spot for a bounce back as the Dodgers are 17-4 in their last 21 games following a loss. Milwaukee took the first three games from San Francisco before losing on Sunday to fall a game and a half behind the Cubs in the National League Central. Despite the good series against the Giants, Milwaukee is 4-10 in its last 14 road games. The Dodgers turn to Kenta Maeda who is coming off his worst start since coming off the DL on June 13th, but it still was not bad as he allowed four runs in seven innings at Philadelphia. That capped off a three-game run of starts on the road and back home, he has a 2.74 ERA. Freddy Peralta counters for Milwaukee and after posting a 1.59 ERA in his first four games, he has put up a 6.10 ERA over his last four outings and this is not the desired matchup as the Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. Additionally, Los Angeles falls into two sensational situations. First, we play against National League underdogs of +150 or more that are hitting .255 or less with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 102-25 (80.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on home favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg after a game where they had four or fewer hits going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 49-11 (81.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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07-29-18 | Diamondbacks v. Padres +115 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Arizona has taken the first two games of this series thanks to significant pitching mismatches, but the Padres have the edge today and the line is showing that. The Diamondbacks are 4-2 on this current roadtrip and are keeping pace with the Dodgers in the National League West as they are just a game and a half back with a nine-game homestand upcoming. San Diego has lost four straight games as both offense and pitching have led to the skid, but we foresee both reversing today. Joey Lucchesi has been the most consistent starter in the rotation with a 3.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts and he has gotten a tough draw of late by opposing quality starters which has led to a lack of run support. Arizona is hitting just .222 against left-handed pitching on the road and the Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Clay Buchholz has been surprisingly good in eight start for Arizona and he tossed a quality outing in his last start after coming off the DL. We are still not sold on him and he enters today as a road favorite for the first time this season. San Diego falls into a solid situation where we play on National League home teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are averaging 3.8 or fewer rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 37-15 (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (962) San Diego Padres |
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07-29-18 | Phillies +104 v. Reds | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Despite losses in the first two games of this series, the Phillies still have a 2.5-game lead in the National League East over the Braves, which have dropped their last four games. This is a big game considering the Phillies travel to Boston for a two-game set starting tomorrow so a loss here could set the stage for a five-game skid so a split in this four-game series is essential. Despite the loss yesterday, the Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven games following a defeat. Cincinnati put together a nice run in June and early July, but the Reds have leveled off by not putting anything big together as they are 0-4 in their last four games following consecutive wins. Additionally, Cincinnati is 11-22 against the money line in home games against National League teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The Phillies starting rotation has been solid this season and one of those components has been Zach Eflin who has posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 13 starts. He is coming off his worst start in a while as he lasted just 2.2 innings against the Dodgers after allowing three solo home runs but prior to that, he posted a 2.32 ERA in his previous seven starts. Luis Castillo has been up and down this season with a 5.30 ERA and in his 21 starts, he has lasted more than six innings only twice. In 11 daytime starts, he has posted only two quality outings while putting up a 5.66 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. 9* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-29-18 | Twins v. Red Sox -144 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. This is a rare opportunity to get Boston at a reasonable price at home. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball as they are a full 40 games over .500 and their 36-14 home record also tops MLB yet they come into today at a lower than expected moneyline which is due to the starting pitching matchup. This number has been right in their wheelhouse as they are 23-8 on the season when favored by -150 or less and they are 62-26 in their last 88 games against teams with a losing record. The Twins dropped to 19-33 on the road and have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the highway and they are a small underdog today because of Jose Berrios. He is the ace of the staff with a 3.48 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 21 starts but his success has come at home where his ERA is over a run less than it is on the road. Going back, the Twins are 2-12 in his last 14 road starts against teams with a winning record. Nathan Eovaldi is the other part for the reasonable number as he is making his first start for Boston since being acquired from Tampa Bay. He pitched well with the Rays as he posted a 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts with four of his last five starts being quality outings. Here, we play on American League favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 that are averaging 5.1 or more rpg with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 42-9 (82.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Boston Red Sox |
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07-28-18 | Mariners v. Angels -119 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Angels have won three straight games and finishing off this series would get them back within striking distance in the American League Wild Card race. The offense has put up 27 runs over this stretch and they can add to it tonight in what is the value play of the night. Seattle has lost 10 of its last 15 games and despite being 19 games over .500, its scoring differential is right at 0. Only the Giants and Tigers have a worse OPS in July than Seattle, and nobody has scored fewer runs this month. This could be considered a contrarian play based on the fact the Angels have lost the last seven games Jaime Barria has pitched but most of that is due to back luck and not bad pitching. In 14 starts, he has a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, and those numbers are envious of a lot of pitchers throughout the league. The value comes with playing against Felix Hernandez as his glory days are done yet he is still seeing ace moneylines. He has been dreadful on the road with a 6.65 ERA and 1.54 WHIP and the Mariners are 0-7 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starter whose ERA is between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 145-88 (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (928) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-28-18 | Nationals -150 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Buy or sell? That is the Washington quandary right now as it is just a game over .500 but it is only six games behind the Phillies in the National League East following three straight wins, so the decision will likely not be done until right at the deadline. Miami has the second worst record in the National League and its -135 run differential is fourth worst in all of baseball. This is a team the Nationals can feast on as they are 19-5 in their last 24 road games against teams outscored by one or more rpg. While the offense has taken the brunt of the criticism, the starting pitching has been inconsistent with Gio Gonzalez leading the way after a brilliant first two months to the season. Still, there is value as the Marlins have dropped six straight games against left-handed starters. Trevor Richards has tossed two straight quality starts for Miami, but his overall 1.46 WHIP is a real concern, especially against an offense that is starting to click again. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start and with a team batting average of .245 or worse. This situation is 72-30 (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (907) Washington Nationals |
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07-28-18 | Mets -139 v. Pirates | 0-5 | Loss | -139 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Pirates put together an 11-game winning streak before losing two in a row on Wednesday and Thursday but bounced back with a win last night on a walk off single by David Freese. The Mets had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss but are in good position to get it back tonight. Jacob deGrom is making what some are saying his last start for the Mets but that is unlikely despite the struggles for New York. He has a 1.71 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 131.1 innings and just 95 hits allowed. Pittsburgh is 1-10 against National League starting pitchers with an ERA of 2.40 or better this season. Trevor Williams has gone two straight starts without allowing a run but for the most part, he has struggled after an incredible start to the season. After posting a 2.29 ERA through his first six starts, he has a 5.04 ERA in his last 14 outings. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better and an offense hitting .255 or worse, going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 79-32 (71.2 percent) since 1997. 9* (905) New York Mets |
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07-27-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals -107 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. St. Louis is back home following a disappointing 3-5 roadtrip including losing three of five in Chicago against the Cubs. The Cardinals are back to .500 on the season but the playoffs are still well within reach as they trail Atlanta by 4.5 games for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The offense has sputtered of late, averaging just 2.5 rpg over their last four games, but on the season the Cardinals are 12-2 against the moneyline after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. The Cubs are coming off an improbable victory as rookie David Bote jacked a two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game against Arizona and then Anthony Rizzo hit a walk off home run two pitches later. Chicago remains 2.5 games ahead of Milwaukee in the National League Central and while it has been playing better on the road, of its 27 road wins, only 13 have been against teams .500 or better. Luke Weaver had a rough month of June where he posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, but he has rebounded with a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three July starts. The Cardinals are 10-4 in his last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Cubs counter with Mike Montgomery who has been up and down and while has been strong on the road, only one of five road starts have come against a team at .500 or better. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg and with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 47-21 (69.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-26-18 | Mets v. Pirates -148 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We played against Pittsburgh yesterday as it lost in Cleveland, snapping its 11-game winning streak but we expect a bounceback tonight in the series opener in this four-game set against the Mets. The Pirates are now seven games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but remain just three games back in the Wild Card race and this is a big series with the next five games coming against the Cubs and Cardinals. The Mets took two of three against San Diego to open the week and while they have held their own on the road, going back they are 14-40 in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record. On the season, they are 8-22 against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg. Nick Kingham gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has been successful as a fill in starter. He has tossed three straight quality starts and taking away one poor outing against the Dodgers, he has a 3.00 ERA in his other nine starts. If he gets past the first inning, he is just fine as eight of the 23 earned runs he has allowed and 11 of 49 hits have been in the 1st inning. Steven Matz counters for the Mets and while he has been having a decent season, the spot is not good as New York is 3-13 in his last 13 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while going 4-17 in his last 21 starts in the second half of the season. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -106 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Triple Play. We lost with the Cubs last night in what was a surprisingly dominant performance from Clay Buchholz, who allowed a solo home run for his only blemish in 6.2 innings. Chicago has dropped back-to-back games for the first time in a month as it has scored just one run in each of those games and the last time it was held to two runs or less in a two-game span, the Cubs erupted for 13 runs in their next game. They are a perfect 5-0 this season when scoring two runs or less combined in their two previous games, averaging 8.8 rpg. Arizona pulled to within a half-game of the Dodgers in the National League West after its third straight win where it has allowed just one run in each of those three victories. We do expect more of that today as Robbie Ray takes the hill and while he was dominant last season, that has not carried forward. He had a rough start to the season, went on the DL and it has not gotten much better with a 7.65 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs are hitting .297 at home against left-handed pitching and have won 17 of their last 22 games against southpaw starters. Jon Lester is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed eight earned runs against the Cardinals, double of his previous season high. Even with that, he still has a 3.12 ERA at home and Chicago has gone 8-2 in his 10 home starts while going back, the Cubs have gone 40-14 in his last 54 home starts. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are allowing four or fewer rpg going up against a team outscoring opponents by one or more rpg. This situation is 99-38 (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Chicago Cubs |
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07-25-18 | Nationals +115 v. Brewers | 7-3 | Win | 115 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Triple Play. Washington was projected to win the National League East and be a serious World Series candidate for the National League, but it has been anything but a good season. The Nationals are now two games under .500 on the season and are seven games behind the Phillies in the National League East while sitting six games out of the final Wild Card spot. They blew a 4-0 lead last night while losing in extra innings, but this has been a good spot in the past as the Nationals are 14-5 in their last 19 games after losing the first two games of a series. Milwaukee continues to hang with the Cubs in the National League Central as they are now just 1.5 games back despite going into the All Star Break on a six-game losing streak. The Brewers have been strong at home with a 33-20 record but with the fact this line is so low, and the public is still all over them, we are taking the contrarian side. Tanner Roark got off to a great start this season but has been inconsistent over the last month by allowing four runs or lore in five of his last six start. He heads to Miller Park where he has allowed just one run in 14 innings over his last two starts. Freddy Peralta counters for the Brewers and after posting a 1.65 ERA through his first four starts, he has put up a 4.30 ERA over his last three outings. We have a contrarian situation where we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .255 or worse with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last five starts going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 38-18 (67.9 percent) since 1997. 9* (957) Washington Nationals |
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07-25-18 | Pirates v. Indians -173 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Triple Play. We put up a dud with Cleveland last night as Shane Bieber got shelled for seven runs in just 1.2 innings after what was a strong start to his season in his first seven starts. Even more surprising was that the Indians scored only two runs in the first seven innings before a couple of late garbage runs and prior to those, they put up a mere two runs over their previous 25 innings. Things may not look better today with this matchup, but the split is on their side for a big effort. The Pirates have won 11 straight games and continue to inch up in the standings as they gained another game on the Cubs in the National League Central while also picking up a game on the Braves in the Wild Card race where they are now just three games back. This has led to some early line movement where the number has come down and we can take advantage of that. Trevor Baur, who made his first All Star appearance, is making his second start since the break and his first one was not good. It was his second worst start of the season as he allowed four runs on nine hits in just four innings as he averaged 25.5 pitches per inning. It was a tough spot as he was pitching in Texas where it was 107 degrees and humid. His other comparable poor start where he averaged 23.4 pitches per inning, he bounced back with eight shutout innings in his next start. Jameson Taillon gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has had a solid, yet unspectacular season with a 3.80 ERA in his 20 starts. He had struggled on the road prior to his last three road outings where he has allowed six runs over 16 innings but those came against the Mets, Padres and Reds, three of the four worst teams in the National League. 8* (974) Cleveland Indians |
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07-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -166 | 5-1 | Loss | -166 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona got to Lucas Farrell for five first inning runs and never looked back as it made it two straight wins, allowing just one run in both games. This came after allowing 22 runs during a three-game losing streak and the Diamondbacks remain right on the hells of the Dodgers in the National League West. Despite the win last night, they are 11-25 in their last 36 games against teams with a winning record. The Cubs have not lost consecutive games in nearly a month as they are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss. Additionally, the Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kyle Hendricks struggled with his command in his last game but overall, he is having a strong season with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. Six of 10 home starts have been quality outings where his ERA drops to 3.38. Clay Buchholz is making his first start since late June and while he has been really good, we cannot see it continuing. The Cubs fall into a strong situation where we play against National League road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are averaging between 4.0 to 4.5 rpg and with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 44-7 (86.3 percent) since 1997. 9* (910) Chicago Cubs |
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07-24-18 | Pirates v. Indians -158 | 9-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Indians looked to have a spectacular matchup last night with Corey Kluber on the hill, but he was not at his best as he allowed seven runs, although only three of those were earned but he lasted only four innings. The offense did not do its part in the rain-shortened games as the Indians were shutout for a second straight day which came after scoring 30 runs in their previous three games. Despite the loss, the Indians are still 41-13 in their last 54 home games against teams with a losing road record. The Pirates remain the hottest team in baseball as the Monday victory was their 10th straight win. They are climbing back into the playoff race and what looked like a team that was going to be a seller might just stand put and see what transpires. Pittsburgh is four games out in the National League Wild Card race but does have three teams in front to pass. Going back, the Pirates are 11-27 in their last 38 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Shane Bieber has been a solid addition to the rotation as he has a 3.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts, six resulting in Cleveland wins. He has been more efficient at home with a 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts where he is 3-1. Pittsburgh counters with Joe Musgrove who has very similar numbers and even though they were solid, he has made only two road starts in his nine games overall.. 9* (926) Cleveland Indians |
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07-24-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies +103 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 103 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Dodgers took the opening game of this three game series to improve to 3-1 after the break and they remain a game and a half ahead of the Diamondbacks in the National League West. They have an extremely tough matchup tonight however as the Phillies send their ace to the hill in trying to move back into first place in the National League East. Philadelphia is 32-18 at home including wins in six of its last eight and going back, the Phillies are 11-25 in their last 36 games against teams with a winning record. Aaron Nola is making his first start in 10 days, so the extra rest is a bonus. He closed the first half with five straight quality outings and he has been unbeatable at home, literally. He is 8-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in nine starts, all Phillies wins and all being quality performances. Kenta Maeda has been pitching well also but he has not been as efficient on the road with just one quality outing and that came against the Marlins. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 99-36 (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-23-18 | Cardinals +118 v. Reds | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. St. Louis lost yesterday to drop its five-game series against the Cubs and needs to get back on track in this winnable series before hosting Chicago at the end of the week. The Cardinals are still over .500 on the road, one of only seven teams in the National League with a winning record on the highway. Going back, the Cardinals are 7-2 in their last nine games following a loss. Cincinnati closed the first half on an 18-8 run, but the break did the Reds no good as they were swept by the Pirates over the weekend. The offense managed only five total runs and the three games represented the first time over their last 14 games they scored fewer that three runs. The Reds are 17-35 in their last 52 home games against teams with a winning road record. Daniel Poncedeleon gets the ball for St. Louis and this will be his big league debut. It will also complete an incredible 14-month comeback from a life-threatening brain injury suffered when he was struck by a line drive in a Triple-A game. He has recovered incredibly as for Memphis this season, he has a 9-3 record, a 2.15 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 92 innings. He won his last four starts, including a one-hitter in his last appearance on July 15, the first complete-game shutout of his five minor league seasons. Luis Castillo counters for the Reds and while he has been dependable, he has been far from dominant as only five of his 20 starts have been quality outings. This includes just one over his last nine starts and in three starts against the Cardinals this season, he has a 5.63 ERA. 10* (953) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-22-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs -140 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. This is the final game of a five-game series between Chicago and St. Louis with each team alternating wins through the first four games. The Cubs bullpen, which is fifth best in baseball, blew a 3-1 lead last night in the second game of a double-header by allowing five runs over the final three innings so we can expect a bounce back today. The Cubs hold a 2.5-game lead over Milwaukee in the National League Central and turn to Jose Quintana in his first starts after the break after posting a pair of quality outings to close the first half. Admittedly, he has struggled at home, but Chicago is 5-2 in his seven starts thanks to 7.3 rpg of support. Miles Mikolas counters for St. Louis and he has had a great season thus far with a 2.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 19 starts. He is a perfect 6-0 on the road but his numbers inflate, and this will be his first career start at Wrigley Field. The Cubs fall into a solid situation where we play on National League home teams that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 160-86 (65 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Chicago Cubs |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +150 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 150 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Saturday Underdog Sweet Spot. This line reflects the past and not the present and is based on name and where the public money is going to go. Last night, the Dodgers took the opener of this series with a 6-4 win over Milwaukee to send the Brewers to their seventh straight loss as the break did them no good to quell their losing streak. Rich Hill had a significant pitching edge over Wade Miley, but the price closed at -132 and tonight the gap decreases yet the price cis significantly higher. Clayton Kershaw has been one of, if not the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the past few years but injuries are starting to catch up as he has been as inconsistent as we have seen. He lost four games in 2016 in 21 starts and lost four games in 2017 in 27 starts but he has already lost four games this season in just 13 starts. He has gone past six innings only once in his last eight starts which dates back to April. Chase Anderson is having a great season as his 3.78 ERA is very solid but that does not tell the full story as he has a 1.17 WHIP and players are hitting just .219 against him and those last two numbers are dominant worthy. While he cannot pitch during the day with his 0-5 record and 4.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, he is 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts under the lights. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-20-18 | Giants v. A's -110 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Oakland closed the first half on a 21-6 run to get back into the playoff picture. While they might not catch Houston in the American League West as they are eight games back, they are just three games behind Seattle in the American League Wild Card. San Francisco is also in the Wild Card mix as it is four games out of the second spot, but the road has been an issue all season. The Giants are 31-19 at home but on the road it is close to a reversal as they are 19-29 and most recently, they have lost 21 of their last 31 road games. It might be a risky proposition betting on journeyman Edwin Jackson, but he has been solid with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four starts. This includes two great outings against Cleveland and shutting down San Francisco last time out. Dereck Rodriguez has been nearly as good, but he comes in with a poor 1.58 WHIP on the road. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts going up against an American League starting pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 46-10 (82.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (930) Oakland A's |
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07-20-18 | Twins -118 v. Royals | 5-6 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. It has been an up and down season for Minnesota, but it went 9-2 over its last 11 games before the All Star Break and while the Twins are six games under .500, they are still a manageable 7.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. They can keep the run going as their first six games are out of the break are against losing teams and going back, the Twins are 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Kansas City is fighting it out with Baltimore for the worst record in baseball and its 11-35 record at home is by far the worst. Danny Duffy gets the ball for Kansas City and he closed the first half with a pair of shutout performances, tossing 13 scoreless inning against the Twins and White Sox. The problem is, those games were on the road where he has a solid 3.54 ERA and 1.38 WHIP but his work at home has been atrocious with a 6.75 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He has allowed six runs in each of his last two home starts. Kyle Gibson has been similar as he has been much better on the road with a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP compared to a 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home, albeit, the latter is still pretty good. 9* (919) Minnesota Twins |
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07-20-18 | Padres v. Phillies -162 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Philadelphia closed the first half with a pair of disappointing losses at Miami and it is now back home after spending the last 10 days before the All Star Break on the road. This is the first home game for the Phillies since July 4th where they are 30-16, one of only seven teams with at least 30 home wins and are currently on a four-game winning streak. The Padres closed on a five-game skid and hold down the worst record in the National League so the fact they traded their closer during the break comes as no surprise. San Diego has lost 21 of its last 27 games including 11 of its last 15 on the road. Clayton Richard has had a decent season with a 4.43 ERA and 1.31 WHIP but most of his success has come at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he has a 3.77 ERA compared to a 5.04 ERA on the road. The Phillies are 17-6 in their last 23 home games against left-handed starters. Jake Arietta had a horrible month of June with a 6.66 ERA in five starts but the rest of the season has been great as he has a 2.09 ERA in his other 13 outings. He has been at his best at home with a 2.53 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts. 8* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-15-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -147 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Cardinals have dropped the first two games of this series against the Reds by a combined score of 17-3 and apparently, upper management had seen enough as manager Mike Matheny was unexpectedly fired after the loss yesterday. This is the type of spot where a team rallies around something like that. The Reds season was heading to nowhere, but they have been playing much better of late, winning 21 of their last 30 games but they are still nine games under .500 on the season. Miles Mikolas has been outstanding with a 2.65 ERA through 18 starts as he has allowed more than three runs only four times. Only one of those has been at home where he has a 1.65 ERA in eight starts. The Reds counter with Anthony DeSclafani who has pitched well since coming back from injury but is put in the worst possible spot today. 9* (910) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-15-18 | Yankees v. Indians -127 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Luckily for Cleveland, it resides in the worst division in baseball as it has a 7.5-game lead over the Twins but if not for that, it would be 6.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Indians have dropped two of the first three games against New York and we foresee them heading into the break with a series split. New York has won two of three in Cleveland thus far, but it is just 8-8 over its last 16 road games and has a tough task at hand today. Trevor Bauer is one of the best stories this season as he has never posted an ERA under 4.00 in a season, but he has a 2.23 ERA through 19 starts and he has a ridiculous 168:41 K:BB ratio. Masahiro Tanaka is making his second start since coming off the DL and his first was not pretty. He has a 4.91 ERA on the road yet has not lost thanks to 6.8 rpg of support but that changes today. 9* (918) Cleveland Indians |
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07-15-18 | Blue Jays +142 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Boston was able to extract some revenge after getting its 10-game winning streak snapped on Friday as Xander Bogaerts hit a walk-off grand slam in the 10th inning to pull out a 6-2 win. Toronto can even the series today before heading into the break in what has been a very disappointing season. Marcus Stroman has been at the top of that disappointment list, but he has been a lot better since coming off the DL as he has a 3.04 ERA in four starts including three where he allowed one run or less. Brian Johnson will be making his fourth start of the season as he has been activated from the DL and while Boston has gone 8-0 in his last eight starts, the numbers are not on his side here. He has a 5.33 ERA at home while allowing a .313 average against right-handed hitters and the projected Blue Jays lineup shows not a single lefty in it today. 10* (915) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-14-18 | Royals v. White Sox -121 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Kansas City fire-sale is showing the full effects this season as it has fallen to 26-67 which is the second worst record in baseball and its -189 scoring differential is the worst by a wide margin. The Royals lost for the 12th time in their last 13 games as the pitching has been horrible during this stretch, allowing an average of 6.5 rpg. The one is their favor is that they have been better on the road than at home as far as the records go but their 5.20 road ERA is third worst in baseball. The White Sox are another team in transition mode, but they have had more success in the rebuilding tenure and they have been playing much better at home. After a 3-15 start to the season at Guaranteed Rate Field, they have gone 15-12 over their last 27 games here including wins the last two days. Reynaldo Lopez gets the ball for Chicago and he has shown why he is considered one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. He has a 3.77 ERA through 18 starts, 11 of those being quality outings. He has been lit up only twice all season and both of those were on the road and he comes into today with a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in seven home start. The White Sox are 5-2 in his last seven home starts against teams with a losing record. The Royals have had some success this season by going 13-18 against left-handed starters but they are an atrocious 13-49 against right-handed starters. Daddy Duffy has been inconsistent this season as only seven of his 19 starts have been quality performances, two of which were not against the White Sox where he allowed nine runs over 10 innings. 10* (968) Chicago White Sox |
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07-13-18 | Blue Jays +185 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-7 | Win | 185 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. We lost a tough one with the Blue Jays last night as Mookie Betts hit a two-out grand slam in an epic 13-pitch at-bat, leading Boston to its 10th straight victory. The Red Sox retained their 3.5-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East and are guaranteed to have the lead heading into the All Star Break. Boston has the best home winning percentage in baseball so while going against that is a risk, the value on the underdog negates that. Toronto has now lost six straight games against Boston, but it is now catching the biggest number over this stretch and has a capable arm on the hill to pull off the upset. Ryan Borucki has been exceptional since entering the rotation as he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through three starts, all of which have been quality outings. Two of those came against the Yankees and Astros, two of the three highest scoring teams in the league, which makes the start even more impressive. He does not have a win to show for it though as run support has been limited. Rick Porcello counters for the Red Sox and he is having a decent season with a 3.58 ERA in 19 starts. Only eight of 14 starts under the lights have been quality outings and in his last four starts against Toronto, he has a 6.20 ERA. Toronto falls into a solid situation where we play against American League teams that are hitting between .265 to .279 and with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 33-11 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-12-18 | Blue Jays +170 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. We played against Toronto last night as they failed to back up their 6-2 win from Tuesday against the Braves, but we will be backing the Blue Jays as big underdogs in a very favorable spot. They have been dominated by the Red Sox this season as they have lost five straight meetings and seven of none overall, but one of those victories came with the starter tonight on the hill. Boston has won nine straight games so stepping in front of this train is a risk, but it is a risk we will take at this price. The Red Sox are 3.5 games ahead of the Yankees and while they are playing at a high level, David Price is not pitching at a high level. He put up a dud two starts back against the Yankees, which is understandable, but he followed that up with another poor outing against the hapless Royals, but the offense bailed him out which has been the case much of the season. That includes two starts against Toronto, but neither were quality outings. J.A. Happ is coming off a pair of bad games against Detroit and New York, however those were at home where he has an ERA that is over 2.5 runs higher than it is on the road. Going back, the Blue Jays are 6-0 in his last six road starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against American League favorites with a mone line of -110 or higher that are averaging 5.1 or more rpg while hitting .280 or better over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 28-15 (65.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (961) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-12-18 | Yankees v. Indians +120 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. Cleveland is coming off a 19-run performance last night and it comes at an ideal time as the Indians will be playing their first home game against the Yankees since losing to them in the ALDS last season in five games. The win last night snapped a four-game slide where the Indians had won eight straight games at home after a sloe start at Progressive Field to start the season. New York is coming off a 9-0 win last night in Baltimore and it has struggled of late on the highway, going just 6-7 in its last 13 road games. There is nothing negative to say about Luis Severino as he has been outstanding with a 2.12 ERA in 18 starts but his numbers do regress some on the road. At home, the Yankees are 10-0 in his 10 starts but drop to 7-2 in nine road outings and while that is still extremely good, his road ERA is a full run higher than it is at home. He is coming off an uneven effort in his last start in Toronto which was his second non-quality outing in his last three starts. While Cleveland will be out for some home revenge, Corey Kluber will be as well. He struggled in two starts in the ALDS against the Yankees as he allowed nine runs in 6.2 innings, both of which came at home. Whether it was the pressure or not, he has dominated New York as he is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA in seven career regular-season starts against the Yankees. This includes a 1.23 ERA in three home starts. Speaking of home, he has been dominant here this season with a 1.43 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 10 starts, nine of which have been quality outings including six where he allowed zero earned runs. 9* (964) Cleveland Indians |
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07-12-18 | Brewers +121 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. The Brewers lost two of three in Miami to start the week, but we expect them to bounce back here and at a nice underdog price. They are 25-20 on the road and remain a game and a half ahead of the Cubs in the National League Central. Pittsburgh took two of three against Washington to even its homestand at 3-3 and while it won yesterday, the Pirates are 4-13 in their last 17 games following a win. Jameson Taillon has put together a solid season thus far with a 4.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. Only eight of those have been quality outings including just three at home in nine starts. Betting on Wade Miley may be a scary proposition, but this is a good spot. Miley missed the first month of the season with an injured groin and then he put together an impressive start against the Reds, pitching six innings and allowing just one run on three hits and three walks with four strikeouts before leaving his next start with an oblique strain that put him on the DL for two months. He has been solid in his rehab assignments and should continue that here. There has been no indication of him being on a pitch count, but it is fine if he is as the Brewers possess the fifth lowest bullpen ERA in baseball and fits into a positive situation. Here, we play on National League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starter whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 45-15 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (953) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-11-18 | Mariners v. Angels -112 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Angels responded from a three-run first inning by the Mariners to score nine unanswered runs to win this series opener and improve to 3-1 on this current homestand. This is a big series to cut the lead and somehow get back into the Wild Card hunt. The Mariners possess that second Wild Card slot as they have a six-game lead over Oakland and now a 10-game lead over the Angels. Despite being 18 games over .500, Seattle is just +11 in scoring differential which is the lowest positive differential in all of baseball, behind even the Angels which are +20. They are where they are thanks to a 26-11 record in one-run games, easily the best mark in baseball. Marco Gonzales has had a solid season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 starts and the Mariners have won all three of his starts against the Angels but all of those were at home where his ERA is a run and a half better than on the road. Jaime Barria has had an equally strong season with a 3.39 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 of those and this is a good spot to end the five-game winless start streak. The Angels fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on home teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 30-14 (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Braves -151 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Toronto won the series opener last night thanks to a five-run eighth inning and it got a much needed solid start from Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays are now just 18-23 on the road and they are 7-20 in their last 27 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta has lost six of its last seven games to fall into second place in the National League East, one game behind the Phillies. The Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for the Braves and after allowing more than two runs only once through his first 17 starts, he did so again last game which means we can expect a bounce back similar to the first time. Overall, he has a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and those drop to 2.18 and 1.08 respectively in eight home starts. The Braves are 7-2 in his last nine home starts against teams with a losing record. Sam Gaviglio has put together a solid season since entering the rotation in mid-May as he has a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in nine starts and Toronto has won his last four outings. Only one of those was on the road where he has a 6.75 ERA in four games. Here, we play against American League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse and starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing going up against a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 or better. This situation is 42-14 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (928) Atlanta Braves |
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07-11-18 | Phillies v. Mets -155 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Mets have lost the first two games of this series as the offense has managed just four runs and going back, they have scored only eight runs in their last five games of this homestand. They are in a good contrarian spot however to get the offense going behind their ace starting pitcher. Philadelphia has taken over first place in the National League East as it has won two straight games and 10 of its last 13. The Phillies offense has been struggling as well as with the exception of a 17-run outburst against the Pirates, they have averaged just 3.8 rpg over the other 12 games during this stretch. Jacob deGrom takes the hill for New York and he brings in a league-best 1.79 ERA as he has tossed 10 straight quality outings while allowing more than three runs only once all season. In his first game against the Phillies this season, he was making his first start since he suffered a hyperextended right elbow and walked three batters, struck out two in the shortest outing of his career. Philadelphia counters with Vince Velazquez who has been up and down. In six starts against the Mets, he is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA and the Phillies are 2-5 in his last seven road starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a team slugging percentage of .390 or worse on the season while batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 145-55 (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (908) New York Mets |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Rockies are back home following a series win in Seattle and they close their first half of the season with a six-game homestand. They trail the Diamondbacks by 3.5 games in the National League West and can close the gap with a big three-game series as they look to find some consistency as home where their 18 wins are second fewest in the National League. Arizona is coming off a 3-7 homestand as its lead in the division has shrunk to a half-game over the Dodgers and this is not a good spot for one of its aces. Patrick Corbin has been solid with a 3.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 18 starts and while he has pitched well on the road with a 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, this is his first trip to Coors Field where he has a 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in nine career games. Despite the poor record, the Rockies are hitting .296 at home against left-handed pitching. Tyler Anderson has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.90 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 starts and he is going through his best stretch of the season. He has a 2.18 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed no runs in 16 innings over his last two starts. 10* (958) Colorado Rockies |
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07-10-18 | Royals +160 v. Twins | 9-4 | Win | 160 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. We are aware the Royals are not a good team and are currently on a 10-game losing streak but there is hidden value in going contrarian with them tonight. They lost the opener of this series last night as the bullpen imploded following a solid outing from Danny Duffy who has struggled to get run support on a consistent basis. The Twins have won five straight games but still trail the Indians are 8.5 games in the American League Central as Minnesota is eight games under .500. Speaking of inconsistent run support, Ian Kennedy has been a bigger victim as he has received three runs or less in eight straight games. He has just one victory in 17 starts which is the contrarian part of this play but he has not pitched bad as he has a 3.19 ERA over his last five starts and an even more impressive 1.03 WHIP over that stretch. Aaron Slegers is making his second start of the season following a quality outing against the Orioles last week, but he is overpriced tonight based on the opposition. The last outing can be considered an aberration has he posted a 6.46 ERA in four games last season. 9* (969) Kansas City Royals |
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07-10-18 | Brewers -145 v. Marlins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Milwaukee lost the opener of this series last night but still maintains a 1.5-game lead in the National League Central over the Cubs which also lost in San Francisco. The Brewers are still a solid 24-19 on the road and those 24 wins are tied for third most in the National League and going back, they are 37-18 in their last 55 games following a loss. The Marlins have exceeded expectations so far but not by much as they are projected to win 66 games after coming in with an over/under of 64.5. Miami has won two straight games but going past that has been an issue as on the season, it is 4-10 following consecutive victories. Jhoulys Chacin gets the ball for the Brewers and he has been a very consistent starter as he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts. Additionally, he has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six road starts and the Brewers are 10-2 in his last 12 games against National League teams that average 4.0 or fewer rpg. Pablo Lopez is making his third start for Miami and after a quality outing against the hapless Mets, he allowed five runs in five innings against the Nationals last week. 9* (955) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-09-18 | Tigers +195 v. Rays | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Tigers are coming off a 2-2 series split with Texas after getting shut out on Sunday 3-0 as they were held to just four hits. Going back, Detroit is just 4-15 over its last 19 games and while it has seen some big underdog numbers on the road, those were against the Cubs and Indians. Tampa Bay is coming off a pair of shut outs wins over the Mets on Saturday and Sunday which is playing into the number as is the fact Chris Archer is on the hill. He has not been the same dominant pitcher as he has been in the past and this is his first start in five weeks. After spending time on the disabled list. He has a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts and in five home starts, he has yet to pick up a victory. Francisco Liriano counters for the Tigers and he is coming off a pair of quality starts on the road. He has pitched well on the road with a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in eight starts, six of which have been quality, but he has been unlucky with the offense giving him just 2.8 rpg. Detroit falls into a solid situation where we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA 4.20 or better. This situation is 67-39 (63.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Detroit Tigers |
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07-08-18 | Cardinals v. Giants -121 | Top | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Giants lost for the fifth time in their last six games as the offense has completely shut down, scoring three runs or less in all six of those games, averaging just 1.7 rpg over that stretch. This includes scoring a grand total of three runs in three games at Coors Field, but the offense is much better than this and we foresee more production on Sunday. St. Louis has won four of its first six games on this current nine-game roadtrip as it continues to hang around in the National League Wild Card race. The Giants missed Madison Bumgarner for the first couple months of the season as he is showing how important he is to the rotation. He has a 2.58 ERA and 1.12 WHIPO in his first six starts and he has been dealing at home with a 0.86 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in three outings. The Cardinals are 17-38 in their last 55 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and more recent, they are 3-8 in their last 11 games against left-handed starters. Jack Flaherty opened the season great, but he has stumbled over his last two starts. Despite a 2.86 ERA in six road starts, the Cardinals are just 1-5 in those games as he has received no run support which we expect to again be the case today. 10* (960) San Francisco Giants |
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07-08-18 | Reds v. Cubs -143 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Reds had a chance to win their third straight game as they had a 7-2 lead going into the bottom of the sixth inning but allowed six runs down the stretch including four runs in the eighth inning. That was the eighth straight win for the Cubs in which they trailed at some point in the game. That was a disheartening loss and one that can carry over and we catch the Cubs not only in this good spot, but also at a great price. With the Milwaukee loss, Chicago is now a game and a half behind the Brewers in the National League Central yet its +104 scoring differential is the best in the National League and by a wide margin. Jon Lester gets the ball for Chicago and he has been spot on all season as he has allowed more than two runs in just four of his 17 starts and has not allowed more than four runs in any outing. He has been at his best at home as he has a 1.49 ERA in eight starts with the Cubs going 7-1 in those games. Going back, the Cubs are 31-6 in his last 37 starts against teams with a losing record. The starting pitching has been solid for the Reds over the last few weeks, but Luis Castillo has not been part of that as he has a 5.84 ERA in his last seven starts. 8* (958) Chicago Cubs |
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07-08-18 | A's v. Indians -180 | 6-0 | Loss | -180 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Cleveland wasted a solid outing from Corey Kluber as it blew a 3-0 lead by allowing three runs in the eighth inning to tie it up and then allowing another three runs in the 11th inning to lose and snap its five-game winning streak. Oakland has quietly put together a solid run as it is 15-4 over its last 19 games to remain in the hunt in the American League Wild Card race, trailing the Mariners by 6.5 games. The A's are not in a good spot today though as Cleveland is hitting .271 against left-handed pitching, which is fourth best in baseball, and that average climbs to .285 at home and we are expecting another big output on Sunday. The Indians are 42-18 in their last 60 games against left-handed starters including five in a row where they have averaged 6.6 rpg. Brett Anderson is making his first start since May 18th as he was on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. He went 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA in four starts before getting hurt and since his solid season with the Dodgers in 2015, injuries have derailed him as he has made just 20 starts and has posted a 7.35 ERA over 82 innings. Shane Bieber has been solid since entering the Cleveland rotation as he has a 2.97 ERA in five starts, all resulting in Indians victories. 7* (966) Cleveland Indians |
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07-07-18 | Rays -126 v. Mets | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. We won with the Mets last night thanks to a walk off grand slam from Jose Bautista, but we will be going the other way today. The Mets have won two straight games which is only their third winning streak of two games or more since a nine-game winning streak ended Apr. 13. We mentioned yesterday the Tampa Bay road struggles of late, but the blame cannot be put on Blake Snell who has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last five road starts with all five coming against teams ranked No. 12 or better in run scored in all of baseball. Overall, he has a 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 18 starts and he has allowed one run or less in seven of his last eight starts. The Mets have scored the fifth fewest runs in baseball and they are 2-11 in 13 home games against left-handed starters. Steven Matz has been pitching well but not nearly as dominant as Snell. He has been more efficient on the road than at home as he has a 2.25 ERA in eight road starts compared to a 4.57 ERA in eight home starts. He has just one win at home and going back, the Mets are 0-4 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is hitting .261 on the road against left-handed pitching while going 5-1 in its last six games against left-handed starters and their 15 overall wins against southpaws are ninth best in baseball. 10* (925) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-07-18 | Phillies v. Pirates -118 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Pirates were in the game last night, trailing by just one run going into the sixth inning before the Phillies erupted for 12 runs over the final four frames. We are giving them a second chance today however. The Phillies are now tied with the Braves for first place in the National League East after their fifth straight win while they sent the Pirates to their fourth straight loss. Jameson Taillon has been pitching a lot better of late as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts, posting a 3.43 ERA over that stretch. His eight home starts show a 4.19 ERA, but they also show a 1.16 WHIP which is a better indication of how he has done at PNC Park. Jake Arietta has posted only once quality outing over his last six starts and has allowed nine earned runs in 9.1 innings in two road games over that stretch. Overall, he has a 5.05 ERA on the road and this is one place he despises as his last four trips to Pittsburgh has resulted in a 9.00 ERA over 18 innings since 2016. Here, we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team SLG percentage of .400 or lower with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 34-8 (81 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (906) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-07-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +179 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Blue Jays took the opener of this series as they got to Sonny Gray for five runs in the second inning to move to 4-3 on this homestand. The public is all over the Yankees today, expecting a bounce back with their Cy Young candidate taking the hill. Toronto counters with good history in a great underdog situation and going back, the Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last seven games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. There is noting negative to say about Luis Severino as he has been outstanding with a 1.98 ERA in 18 starts but his number do regress some on the road. At home, the Yankees are 10-0 in his 10 starts but drop to 6-2 in eight road outings. J.A. Happ allowed seven runs in his last start against Detroit which was just the sixth time he has allowed four or more runs. In the five previous instances, he followed it up with five quality starts, posting a 1.36 ERA and all resulting in Toronto wins. The Blue Jays are 10-1 in his last 11 starts against American League teams averaging 4.9 or more rpg.. Additionally, we play on American League home underdogs with a moneyline of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start, with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season. This situation is 51-36 (58.6 percent) since 1997 and while the percentage looks average, it has netted 34.7 units of profit. 9* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-06-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -132 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. San Diego took the opener of this series last night which snapped a three-game losing streak as it has been a rough stretch for the Padres which are 4-13 in their last 17 games overall. Additionally, they are 0-5 in their last five games following a win as the offense has managed just 2.4 rpg on those follow up games. Arizona has had a dreadful homestand, going 1-6 following a solid 7-1 run. The Diamondbacks are now tied with the Dodgers for first place in the National League West and despite the loss yesterday, they are 7-2 in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. Zack Godley gets the ball for Arizona and after great four-game stretch to close June, he was rocked for seven runs against the Giants, which snapped a three-game home quality start streak. Joey Lucchesi is coming off consecutive starts where he allowed no runs but in 12 starts, he has just two quality outings. Here, we play against National League road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are averaging 3.8 or fewer rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 41-14 (74.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-06-18 | Rays v. Mets -159 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Mets are back home following a 2-3 roadtrip and they have struggled at Citi Field with a 14-26 record, but they have a big pitching advantage for tonight. Tampa Bay has been playing a lot better since a bad start to the season, but their success has come at home as the Rays are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. Ryan Stanek is set to return to the starting role, getting 3-6 outs, after being used twice in late innings against the Marlins, including two innings Tuesday. He has done the job as he has allowed just two earned runs in nine starts but of course, his longest outing is two innings, so the Mets will be facing a lineup of relievers. Jacob deGrom has been a tough luck starter this season as he leads all qualified starters in baseball with a 1.84 ERA which includes a 1.90 ERA at home but has just two wins to show for it. Poor run support is the reason and while the Mets offense has been below average, deGrom has faced some tough opposing starters along the way. The Mets are 16-5 in his last 21 starts during Game One of a series while the Rays are 2-11 in their last 13 road games against right-handed starters. 8* (976) New York Mets |
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07-06-18 | Phillies v. Pirates +105 | 17-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Phillies are riding a four-game winning streak and have moved to within one game of the Braves in the National League East. Philadelphia picked up its 30th home win on Wednesday, which is the most in the National League, but it comes in 17-21 on the road and those 17 victories are tied for the fewest in the league. The Pirates are back home following a 4-5 roadtrip including getting swept against the Dodgers in their three-game series. They are .500 at home and going back, the Pirates are 59-25 in their last 84 July home games. Trevor Williams had a rough four-game stretch in May and June, but he has posted a 3.57 ERA in his last three starts including two quality starts at home. Nick Pivetta is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed seven runs in 1.2 innings against Washington and he has struggled on the road with a 5.81 ERA in seven starts. Here, we play against National League road teams that are hitting .255 or worse and with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last three games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 68-35 (66 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (956) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -134 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We lost with Seattle yesterday but are coming back with the Mariners tonight in another great value spot. Seattle had its eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss yesterday and now sits a game and a half behind the Astros in the American League West, but this is a great bounce back situation. The Angels are now just 3-6 on this roadtrip and are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall which includes three losses against left handed starters where they managed a mere four runs total. Going back, the Angels are 1-10 in their last 11 road games against left-handed starters and face off against Marco Gonzales who is having a solid season. He has a 3.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts and his numbers are better at home where Seattle has gone 6-2 in his eight starts at Safeco Field. Jaime Barria counters for the Angels and he has been dependable but not dominant as just three of his 11 starts have been quality outings. Here, we play against American League teams that are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA of 3.50 or better. This situation is 120-68 (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Seattle Mariners |
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07-04-18 | Giants +111 v. Rockies | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Colorado has yet to sweep a team at home this season and we do not foresee it happening after today. The Rockies came from behind on Monday and jumped all over Chris Stratton yesterday, but they are just 3-7 in their last 10 games against winning teams while sitting five games under .500 at home. Additionally, Colorado is 5-14 in its last 19 games after having won four or five of its last six games this season. The Giants are still a game and a half ahead of the Rockies in the National League West making this series finale a big game for them to hold off Colorado and keep pace with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Andrew Suarez struggled to open the season as he posted a 5.68 ERA in his first six starts but he has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven outings. His last four starts have been his best stretch of the season as he has a 2.35 ERA covering 23 innings. Tyler Anderson is coming off his best start of the season as he shut out the Dodgers over eight innings but that came on the road where he is undefeated on the season. At Coors Field, he has a 5.26 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and the Rockies are 1-6 in his seven home starts. 9* (953) San Francisco Giants |
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07-04-18 | Twins v. Brewers +104 | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Milwaukee has won the first two games of this series and now sits 15 games over .500 yet comes into today as an underdog. The Brewers continue to hold off the Cubs as they are a game up in the National League Central and after the first two wins against the Twins, they are 19-8 in their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has lost five straight games and is now 12 games under .500 overall as any chances of contending are diminishing quickly. The Twins are 26-25 against teams that are .500 or worse but they have won just nine games this season against teams with a winning record. Jose Berrios has had a good season for Minnesota and has been solid lately with seven quality outings in his last nine starts. He has not been consistent on the road however as he has a 4.93 ERA after getting shelled by the Cubs and the Twins are 0-8 in his last eight road starts against teams with a winning record. Chase Anderson opened the season with a great April but stumbled in May with a 7.08 ERA however he recovered in June by posting a 3.78 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The Brewers are 7-1 in his last eight starts following a quality outing in his last start. 9* (976) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-04-18 | Angels v. Mariners -105 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Seattle took the series opener and has now won eight straight games. Typically, this would be a no play or a play against based on that however the Mariners are severely underpriced here, so we have to take the value play. They are just a half-game behind Houston in the American League West and have a firm hold of one of the two Wild Card spots. After the win, the Mariners are now 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. The Angels meanwhile are 0-8 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Garrett Richards has come off the disabled list from a left hamstring strain which helps the Angels rotation, but it is too little, too late for this team which is currently projected at 1.8 percent to make the playoffs. Even prior to his injury, he had been struggling. Even when he has pitched well, he has been victimized by poor run support and the Angels are 1-6 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. Mike Leake has had a career resurgence in Seattle as since coming over from St. Louis last season, he has a 3.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 22 starts. 10* (958) Seattle Mariners |
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07-03-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -137 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona lost the opener of this series last night and has opened its 10-gamew homestand by dropping the first four games. The Diamondbacks are now just 1.5 games ahead of the Dodgers in the National League West so recovering from this early skid during this homestand is essential. St. Louis snapped a four-game losing streak with the victory and has now won three straight games on the road to move two games over .500 on the highway. Zack Greinke looks to continue his home dominance despite a rough outing in his last home game against Pittsburgh. He is coming off a pair of shutout performances on the road and he heads home with a 2.40 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts at Chase Field and going back, the Diamondbacks are 27-5 in their last 32 home games against National League teams with a team batting average of .245 or worse. St. Louis counters with Jack Flaherty who has been solid this season but has just two quality outings in five road starts where St. Louis is 1-4 and it is 1-5 in his last six starts after scoring five runs or more in its previous game. 9* (904) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-03-18 | Orioles v. Phillies -146 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Phillies have opened their homestand with a 4-3 record which is not too bad considering the first two series have come against the Yankees and Nationals and now they face the worst team in baseball Philadelphia is 28-16 at home and has allowed just seven runs in its last four home victories. The Orioles won on Sunday to snap a seven-game winning streak as we backed Kevin Gausman who has been the lone bright spot in the starting rotation. This has been a rough spot this season as Baltimore is 0-9 when playing with a day off while going 3-14 after allowing two runs or less. Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies and he has been solid thanks to finally being healthy. He had a pair of rough outings to end May, but he posted a 1.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five June starts. Alex Cobb has been up and down, and it has mostly been the latter as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, and those numbers get even worst on the road. Here, we play on teams coming off two consecutive one-run wins over a division rival, starting a pitcher who gave up two earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 31-11 over the last five seasons. 9* (920) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-03-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays -121 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Blue Jays lost yesterday in the series finale against the Tigers which ended up making the four-game set a split and they are in good shape to snap their two-game slide. They have struggled on the road all season but have picked it up at home where the blue Jays have won 10 of their last 13 games. It has been an even worse season for the Mets which are now 22-47 over their last 69 games. New York salvaged a game in Miami on Sunday where it was favored and on the season, it is 7-24 as an underdog of +150 or less. Additionally, the Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Marco Estrada has had a rough season because of a bad April and May but in five starts last month, he put up a 2.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP which includes three quality starts at home. The Mets hand the ball to Zack Wheeler who is coming off a solid outing, allowing no runs over seven innings. The last time he did that was his first start in June and he followed that up by allowing six runs in his next start. The Mets are 3-13 in his last 16 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-02-18 | Giants v. Rockies +110 | 2-5 | Win | 110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Home field has not been great for Colorado this season, but it is getting a great price tonight in a contrarian play against the public. The Rockies won three of their last four road games including taking two of three against the Dodgers over the weekend, so they head back home with decent momentum. The Giants are coming off a road sweep in Arizona, but they have had their struggles away from home as they are still seven games under .500 and going back, they are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. Madison Bumgarner has been strong since coming back into the rotation, but the Giants are 1-7 in their last eight games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. Kyle Freeland has been on a roll with six quality outings in his last seven starts and he has been great all season with 11 quality performances in 16 games. He has been better at home than on the road and Colorado has won four of his last five at Coors Field. 9* (952) Colorado Rockies |
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