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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-03-13 | Kansas State v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Wildcats/Ducks Fiesta Bowl Surefire on Oregon -7.5
The Oregon Ducks simply have too much speed for Kansas State to compete. Baylor is a very similar team to Oregon in terms of offensive tempo and speed. The Bears handed Kansas State their only loss of the season in a 52-24 home victory. I look for a similar blowout in this one as the Wildcats get behind early and can never catch up as their defense wears down early into the second half, allowing the Ducks to continue piling on the points. Chip Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games after 5 consecutive games where they forced 2 or more turnovers as the coach of Oregon. Take the Ducks and lay the points. |
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01-02-13 | Louisville +14.5 v. Florida | Top | 33-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Louisville/Florida Sugar Bowl Surefire on Louisville +14.5
The Louisville Cardinals are showing awesome value as a 14.5-point underdog to the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. This team has not been getting the respect it deserves all season as it won 10 games behind the steady play of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater led the Big East with a 161.6 passer rating that ranked seventh in the nation, tossing for 3,452 yards and 25 touchdowns. Florida struggled all season as a heavy favorite. It beat Bowling Green 27-14 at home as a 28-point favorite, Missouri 14-7 at home as a 17.5-point favorite, LA Lafayette 27-20 at home as a 27-point favorite, and Jacksonville State 23-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite. Louisville is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisville and the points. |
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01-01-13 | Wisconsin +6 v. Stanford | Top | 14-20 | Push | 0 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy 2013 BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin +6
All five of Wisconsin's losses this season have come by 7 points or less. That 7-point loss was in overtime to Ohio State, and the other four losses have come by exactly 3 points. This team is much better than a 5-loss team. They have been told in the media that they don't belong in the Rose Bowl because they only got in because of postseason bans by Ohio State and Penn State. These players are going to use that as motivation, plus they'll be hungry from two straight heartbreaking losses in the Rose Bowl over the past two years. I fully expect the Badgers to win this one outright. The Pac-12 has not done well in bowls thus far, and this will be another shot to the conference tonight. Take Wisconsin and the points. |
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01-01-13 | Northwestern v. Mississippi State +2.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Miss State/Northwestern Gator Bowl Surefire on Mississippi State +2.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs should not be an underdog to the Northwestern Wildcats. This line is an absolute joke as I fully expect the Bulldogs to roll. The Big Ten was down this season, and Northwestern will be playing one of the better teams in the SEC. However, Mississippi State doesn't get treated like one of the better teams as it is undervalued week in and week out. The Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. Take Mississippi State and the points. |
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12-31-12 | Clemson +6 v. LSU | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Clemson/LSU Chick-fil-A Bowl "BAILOUT" on Clemson +6
The Clemson Tigers are battle-tested having played South Carolina to a 10-point game in their season finale. That contest will have them more prepared mentally and physically to play a team like LSU, which is very similar to the Gamecocks. Clemson is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games overall. Take Clemson and the points. |
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12-31-12 | Iowa State v. Tulsa +2 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy ISU/Tulsa Liberty Bowl Surefire on Tulsa +2
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane want revenge from a 23-38 road loss to the Iowa State Cyclones in the first week of the season. After that loss, the Golden Hurricane went on to win 10 games this year and a Conference USA title. This is clearly a much-improved team from the first meeting. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take Tulsa and the points. |
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12-29-12 | Navy +14 v. Arizona State | Top | 28-62 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy College Bowl Saturday GAME OF THE DAY on Navy +14
The Navy Midshipmen should not be catching two touchdowns from Arizona State Saturday. This is one of the hottest teams in the country as they have won seven of their last eight games overall. It's no coincidence that freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds took over eight games ago as he has been solely responsible for the turnaround. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Navy and the points. |
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12-27-12 | Cincinnati v. Duke +9.5 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Cincinnati/Duke Belk Bowl Surefire on Duke +9.5
The Duke Blue Devils aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because of their 0-4 finish. Well, those four games came against Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech, which are the four best teams in the ACC. Cincinnati lost head coach Butch Jones to Tennessee, and his absence will really hurt this team mentally. Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. The Blue Devils are going bowling for the first time since 1994, and they simply want to be here more. Take Duke and the points. |
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12-24-12 | SMU v. Fresno State -11.5 | Top | 43-10 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
6* Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Surefire on Fresno State -11.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the country that gets overlooked. Their only losses this season came at Oregon, at Tulsa and at Boise State. Fresno State won nine games this year with all nine of those victories coming by 12 or more points. As a result, the Bulldogs went a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season. They went 11-1 ATS at the pay window overall to really show how underrated they were all season. I look for the Bulldogs to pick up win No. 10 by 12 or more points as well Monday. Take Fresno State and lay the points. |
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12-22-12 | Washington +6 v. Boise State | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Las Vegas Bowl "BLOOD BATH" on Washington +6
This is a very evenly-matched game between two of the best defenses in the country. I believe the difference in this game will be Washington's offense behind talented quarterback Keith Price. This is the same Washington team that beat Pac-12 champ Stanford, while also topping a very good Oregon State squad. Boise State didn't have a great win all season. It lost to Michigan State and San Diego State. Its best wins came against BYU and Nevada, but those came by a combined 7 points. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Take Washington and the points. |
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12-21-12 | Ball State +7.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Ball State/UCF Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7.5
The Ball State Cardinals are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. I'll gladly take the 7.5 points in a game that I believe they are going to win outright. Ball State won nine games this season with its only three losses coming to Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. Ball State is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road win over the last 2 seasons. Ball State is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Take this combined 25-2 ATS angle in favor of the Cardinals straight to the bank. Take Ball State and the points. |
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12-20-12 | BYU -3 v. San Diego State | Top | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy BYU/SDSU Poinsettia Bowl Surefire on BYU -3
The BYU Cougars will win and cover this game against San Diego State behind one of the best defenses in the country. BYU gives up just 14.7 points/game while ranking 3rd in the FBS in total defense at 266.3 yards/game. The Cougars have won nine of their last 10 meetings with San Diego State. BYU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games since 1992. The Cougars are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take this combined 23-0 ATS angle straight to the bank. Take BYU and lay the points. |
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12-15-12 | Nevada +9 v. Arizona | Top | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Nevada/Arizona Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +9
*No Analysis, On Vacation* |
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12-08-12 | Navy -6.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Army/Navy NBC Saturday Afternoon Surefire on Navy -6.5
Navy is clearly the stronger team this season at 7-4 against an Army team that is just 2-9. Navy has won six of its last seven games ever since switching to freshman Keenan Reynolds as its starting quarterback. Army is coming off a terrible 32-63 loss to Temple as the Owls rushed for 534 yards on them. Navy has the better run defense in this one, which will be the difference. Rich Ellerson is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of Army. Take Navy and lay the points. |
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12-01-12 | Alabama v. Georgia +8 | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 43 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy 'Bama/Georgia SEC Championship Surefire on on Georgia +8
The Georgia Bulldogs have been playing their best football of the season down the stretch, arguably better than Alabama. Georgia has won six in a row, its last four by 27 points or more, and it has allowed 14 points or less in five straight games (8.6 PPG). It comes into this SEC Championship undervalued and with a ton of momentum. Georgia is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate, and I believe the Bulldogs can win this thing outright. Take Georgia and the points. |
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12-01-12 | Louisiana-Lafayette v. Florida Atlantic +9 | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 44 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Saturday CFB "UPSET SHOCKER" on Florida Atlantic +9
The Florida Atlantic Owls are showing excellent value Saturday as a 9-point home underdog to the UL-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns. That's nothing new because the Owls have been undervalued all year as evidenced by their 8-3 ATS record in 2012. They have had two weeks to prepare for Lafayette having last played on November 16th, while the Rajin' Cajuns last played on November 24th. That's a huge advantage for the Owls, plus this is Senior Day for them, so there's no question they'll be motivated. Lafayette is eligible for a bowl berth, but it cannot win the Sun Belt, so it has little to play for. The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. FAU is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take this combined 14-0 ATS angle straight to the bank today. Take Florida Atlantic and the points. |
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12-01-12 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor +5 | Top | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor +5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will suffer a letdown from their overtime loss to Oklahoma last week. They have nothing to play for here as they are already bowl eligible but cannot win the Big 12. Baylor has a lot to play for as this will be Senior Day. There's no question the Bears will be amped up to send their seniors out with a victory. Quarterback Nick Florence and receiver Terrance Williams are among 23 seniors that will be honored before the game. These seniors are certainly responsible for helping turn around Baylor's football program over the last few years. Oklahoma State is 1-3 on the road and giving up 42.0 points/game, while Baylor is 4-1 at home, scoring 44.2 points/game and allowing 26.8 points/game. The Bears are is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Take Baylor and the points. |
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11-30-12 | UCLA Bruins +8.5 v. Stanford | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy UCLA/Stanford Pac-12 Line Mistake on UCLA +8.5
The UCLA Bruins get the call Friday in the Pac-12 Championship. They suffered a letdown last week against Stanford because they were already assured a spot in the Pac-12 title game, while the Cardinal were not. The Bruins will bring it this time around with the conference championship at stake, and I look for them to easily stay within the number, and likely win outright. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take UCLA and the points. |
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11-30-12 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State +7.5 | Top | 44-37 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy NIU/Kent State MAC Championship Surefire on Kent State +7.5
The Kent State Golden Flashes are the real deal this season, yet they continue to get overlooked by oddsmakers. They are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS on the season, which includes a win at Rutgers. In fact, ten of their 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. Kent State is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season. The Golden Flashes are 7-0 ATS 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Take this combined 24-0 ATS angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Kent State and the points. |
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11-29-12 | Louisville v. Rutgers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Louisville/Rutgers ESPN Thursday Night Surefire on Rutgers -3
The Louisville Cardinals have gotten wind of the news that head coach Charlie Strong interviewed for the Auburn job. Their players have to be worried about him leaving, and that distraction is going to be a big reason why they lose this contest to Rutgers. Even without the distraction, I believe the Scarlet Knights are the stronger team, especially at home. Rutgers is 4-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.8 points/game. Louisville is 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS on the road this year, only outscoring opponents by 0.5 points/game. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Rutgers and lay the points. |
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11-24-12 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -1 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Saturday Night "BLOOD BATH" on Ole Miss -1
*Analysis Coming Soon* |
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11-24-12 | Missouri +22 v. Texas A&M | Top | 29-59 | Loss | -105 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy 2012 SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri +22
The Missouri Tigers are showing excellent value Saturday as more than a three-touchdown underdog to Texas A&M. The Aggies are way over-hyped right now due to the solid play of quarterback Johnny "Football" Manziel. There's no question that Texas A&M has a great team, but it is not 22 points better than Missouri, a former Big 12 rival. Missouri has won three straight and 5 of its last 6 meetings with Texas A&M. That includes two road wins in its last two trips to College Station. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Take Missouri and the points. |
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11-24-12 | Auburn +32 v. Alabama | 0-49 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 23 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Auburn/Alabama Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +32
*Analysis Coming Soon* |
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11-23-12 | Arizona State v. Arizona -3 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy ASU/Arizona ESPN Friday Night "BAILOUT" on Arizona -3
The Arizona Wildcats should be a much heavier home favorite over in-state rival Arizona State Friday night. Arizona has played its best football at home this season where it is 6-1 and outscoring opponents by 20.6 points per game. Arizona State is just 2-3 on the road this season. Arizona State is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game since 1992. The Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Arizona State is 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Take Arizona and lay the points. |
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11-23-12 | Marshall +7 v. East Carolina | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 63 h 53 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Friday CFB "UPSET SHOCKER" on Marshall +7
The East Carolina Pirates have no business being favored by a touchdown over an underrated Marshall team Friday. The Pirates are already bowl eligible at 7-4, while the Thundering Herd will be laying it all on the line to become bowl eligible considering they enter this contest at 5-6. Marshall has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, scoring 39.3 points per game and averaging a ridiculous 525.3 total yards per contest. Four of their six losses this season have come by 10 points or less, including by three by 7 points or fewer. The other two were against West Virginia and UCF, two of the better teams in the country. Marshall QB Rakeem Cato is putting up video game-like numbers, completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 3,883 yards with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He'll have his way with an ECU defense that gives up 258 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt. The Pirates are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Take Marshall and the points. |
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11-20-12 | Akron +19.5 v. Toledo | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Akron/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +19.5
The Akron Zips come into this game on nine days' rest having last played on November 10th. The Toledo Rockets are only on five days' rest after playing last Wednesday, November 14th. The Rockets lost that game to 24-31 to Northern Illinois. It was a huge loss for them considering the winner had the inside track to the MAC title game. Now, Toledo has been eliminated from contention. I look for it to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it struggles to get motivated to face Akron in this one. The Zips will have no trouble moving the ball through the air. Akron is averaging 317 passing yards per game and it will be up against a Toledo defense surrendering 298 passing yards per contest. Take Akron and the points. |
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11-17-12 | Stanford +21 v. Oregon | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 69 h 10 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Stanford/Oregon ABC Saturday Night "BAILOUT" on Stanford +21
The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued heading into this showdown with the Stanford Cardinal. Sure, the Ducks beat the Cardinal 53-30 last season, but Stanford simply gave that game away by committing five turnovers. Look for a much 'smarter' performance from Stanford this time around as it looks to get revenge and knock Oregon out of the national title race. The Cardinal have one of the best defensive front 7's in the country, which is crucial in stopping Oregon's ground attack. Oregon ranks 3rd in the nation in rushing at 325.1 yards/game, but Stanford counters that with the nation's No. 1 run defense at 58.8 yards/game and 2.0/carry. The Cardinal will be able to keep the Ducks' running game in check, and they won't turn the ball over nearly as much as they did a year ago, which is why they'll be able to stay within three touchdowns in this one. Stanford is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Stanford and the points. |
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11-17-12 | Iowa State v. Kansas +6 | 51-23 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Saturday CFB "UPSET SHOCKER" on Kansas +6
The Iowa State Cyclones should not be favored on the road at Kansas this Saturday. Kansas is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate, hands down. It only lost 23-30 at Northern Illinois as a 19-point dog, 34-41 at Texas Tech as a 24-point dog, 14-20 at home against Oklahoma State as a 26.5-point dog, and 17-21 at home against Texas as an 18-point dog. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech 13-24, lost to Texas 7-33, and lost to Oklahoma State 10-31 to compare some common opponents. At home on Senior Day, the Jayhawks want to close out their season on a strong note with a victory in a very winnable game against Iowa State here. Kansas is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Take this combined 16-0 ATS Angle straight to the bank Saturday. Take Kansas and the points. |
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11-17-12 | Oklahoma -10.5 v. West Virginia | 50-49 | Loss | -109 | 68 h 10 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Oklahoma/WVU FOX Saturday Night Surefire on Oklahoma -10.5
The West Virginia Mountaineers have officially been exposed. Once they got into the meat of their Big 12 schedule, they simply imploded. The Mountaineers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last 4 games, which includes three losses by 21 or more points to Texas Tech, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma has played its best football way from home this season. The Sooners are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road, outscoring opponents by 23.7 points/game. The key to an Oklahoma cover Saturday will be its pass defense. The Sooners rank 7th in the nation against the pass (170.2 yards/game) and will be able to stop a WVU passing attack that ranks 5th at 347.6 yards/game. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Take Oklahoma and lay the points. |
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11-17-12 | Ole Miss +18.5 v. LSU | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 65 h 41 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Ole Miss/LSU CBS Saturday Afternoon Surefire on Ole Miss +18.5
The Ole Miss Rebels are showing excellent value Saturday as a big road underdog to the LSU Tigers. Ole Miss needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and it would love nothing more than to do it against LSU. The Rebels have played the Tigers very tough throughout the years. Ole Miss is 4-4 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last 8 meetings in Baton Rouge, and it has not lost by more than 7 points once during that span, which dates back to 1997. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. LSU is 5-16 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992. Take Ole Miss and the points. |
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11-17-12 | Indiana +19 v. Penn State | Top | 22-45 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 12 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +19
Penn State is coming off a heartbreaking defeat against Nebraska last Saturday, and it will suffer a hangover this week against an underrated Indiana team. This line is way inflated because Indiana got killed by Wisconsin last week, which was its first blowout loss of the season and a tough match-up because of the Badgers' ability to run the football. Indiana still has a fighting chance to make a bowl game if it were to win its last two contests. The Hoosiers are 4-6 with five of those six losses coming by 15 points or less, including four by 4 points or less. They lost to Michigan State by 4, Ohio State by 3, Ball State by 2 and Navy by 1. Those four close losses there against solid competition really show what Indiana is capable of. Penn State hasn't been favored by more than 6.5 points all season, which is why it is way overvalued here. Plays on road underdogs (INDIANA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1992. Penn State beat Indiana 16-10 last season as a 14-point favorite, and it is once again laying too many points in 2012. Take Indiana and the points. |
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11-16-12 | Hawaii v. Air Force -22.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -102 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Hawaii/Air Force ESPN 2 GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force -22.5
At 1-8, Hawaii is one of the worst teams in the country. Their lone win came against Lamar in the second game of the season. Six of Hawaii's eight losses have come by 35 or more points. Off two straight losses, Air Force needs a win here tonight to become bowl eligible. They play at Fresno State next week, so this is certainly their best chance for a win. The Falcons won't be taking the Warriors lightly with a bowl on the line tonight. Hawaii ranks 98th in the country against the run (209.8 yards/game) while Air Force ranks 2nd in rushing (335.3 yards/game). The Warriors' inability to stop the run will be the reason Air Force keeps on piling on the points, and eventually covers this 22.5-point spread. Take Air Force and lay the points. |
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11-15-12 | North Carolina v. Virginia +3.5 | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy UNC/Virginia ACC Thursday Night Surefire on Virginia +3.5
The Virginia Cavaliers are still alive for a bowl berth after huge back-to-back wins over NC State (33-6) and Miami (41-40). This team is finally starting to play up to its potential as it has saved its best football for last. The same cannot be said for UNC, which has lost two of its last three to Duke (30-33) and Georgia Tech (50-68). The Tar Heels will have a hard time being motivated for these last two games knowing that they are ineligible for a bowl game. Virginia is outgaining opponents 419.1 to 349.1 on the season which shows that this team is better than its record. UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-19 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take Virginia and the points. |
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11-14-12 | Toledo +11 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Toledo/NIU ESPN 2 Wednesday Night Surefire on Toledo +11
The Toledo Rockets get the call Wednesday as a double-digit underdog to Northern Illinois. Toledo only has two losses all season, and both came by exactly 7 points to Arizona and Ball State. This team is the real deal and it's looking for revenge from a heartbreaking 63-60 loss to Northern Illinois that cost it a chance to play in the MAC title game. Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect for its 9-game winning streak that has come against an extremely soft schedule. Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. This system's record is 5-1 (83%) over the last three seasons and 9-2 (82%) over the last five years. Take Toledo and the points. |
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11-10-12 | Texas A&M +14 v. Alabama | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Texas A&M/Alabama CBS Saturday Surefire on Texas A&M +14
The Texas A&M Aggies get the call Saturday as a two-touchdown underdog to Alabama. The Crimson Tide are clearly human after nearly losing to LSU last Saturday. I look for Texas A&M to give Alabama a run for its money in this one. The Aggies are two close losses to LSU and Florida by a combined 8 points away from being undefeated right now. Texas A&M has played its best football on the road this season, going 5-0 while outscoring opponents by 23.4 points per game. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Johnny "Football" Manziel. Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ALABAMA) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 39-13 (75%) since 1992. Take Texas A&M and lay the points. |
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11-10-12 | UMass +17 v. Akron | 22-14 | Win | 100 | 65 h 10 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UMass +17
1-9 Akron should not be a 17-point favorite over UMass Saturday. The Minutemen are hungry for their first win of the season, while the Zips will have a hard time getting motivated to play a winless team. UMass had played Ohio to a 3-point game this season to show what they are capable of. They aren't about to let this opportunity for their first win slip away. They realize this game against Akron might be their only chance for a victory the rest of the way. Take UMass and the points. |
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11-10-12 | Arkansas +14 v. South Carolina | 20-38 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 11 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Arkansas/South Carolina CBS Early Riser on Arkansas +14
The South Carolina Gamecocks no longer have anything to play for. They can't pass Georgia or Florida for the SEC East title, therefore the best they can do is 3rd place in their division. Now, they've lost star RB Marcus Lattimore for the season, making an already stagnant offense even less potent. Arkansas still wants to make a bowl game, and senior QB Tyler Wilson won't allow his team to pack it in. The Razorbacks have shown a lot of fight in recent weeks, winning three of their last four games with their only loss coming by 3 points against Ole Miss. Arkansas is simply going to want this one more as South Carolina finds it hard to get motivated. Arkansas is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Gamecocks are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. Take Arkansas and the points. |
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11-10-12 | Iowa State v. Texas -10 | Top | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 63 h 11 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy 2012 Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -10
The Texas Longhorns will roll the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday. Texas remembers two years ago when it was coming off a big upset win at Nebraska and fell flat on its faces at home the following week against Iowa State. It won't make the same mistake again off a huge win at Texas Tech last Saturday. Texas beat Iowa State 37-14 on the road last season, and I expect a similar beat down this time around. The Longhorns are playing their best football of the season right now off three straight victories and should be a heavier favorite. Take Texas and lay the points. |
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11-09-12 | Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Pitt/UConn Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Connecticut +3.5
The Pitt Panthers come into this game deflated from their triple-overtime loss at Notre Dame last Saturday. I expect they won't even show up after such a heartbreaking defeat, and I look for Connecticut to take advantage and win this game outright. While the Huskies are just 3-6, I have no doubt they are better than their record because they are outgaining opponents by roughly 28 yards per game. They have a tremendous defense that gives up just 18.6 points and 290.2 yards per game this season. Pittsburgh is just 1-3 on the road where it is scoring 17.2 points per game. It will have a hard time putting up points against this tough UConn defense. UConn head coach Paul Pasqualoni is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached. Take the Huskies and the points. |
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11-08-12 | Florida State v. Virginia Tech +14 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy FSU/VA Tech ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +14
Virginia Tech has not played up to its potential this season in the record column. That's why it is a two-touchdown home underdog against Florida State and showing excellent value Thursday. The Hokies are a much better team than they've shown, and all five of their losses have come on the road this season. Virginia Tech is 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game. Florida State has played a soft schedule this season, and it is overvalued because of it. The Seminoles are 2-1 on the road, outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game with their largest margin of victory coming by 13 points. This one will go right down to the wire folks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hokies win outright because they have the potential to do it. Take Virginia Tech and the points. |
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11-07-12 | Bowling Green v. Ohio -2.5 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy BG/Ohio MAC Wednesday Night "BLOOD BATH" on Ohio -2.5
The Ohio Bobcats are showing excellent value as a 2.5-point home favorite tonight against Bowling Green. They are the better team in this one and should be a much heavier home favorite. Bowling Green is getting a lot of love due to their 5-game winning streak, but it has come against five cupcake opponents. All three of the Falcons' losses this season have come on the road where they are scoring a mere 15.4 points per game. Ohio is 8-1 overall, including 5-0 at home where it is scoring 42.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by 21.0 points per game. Ohio is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take this combined 15-1 (94%) ATS Angle straight to the bank Wednesday. Take Ohio and lay the points. |
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11-06-12 | Ball State +7 v. Toledo | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Ball State/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7
The Ball State Cardinals are showing excellent value Tuesday as a touchdown underdog to the Toledo Rockets. Toledo gets way too much respect for being 8-1 this season as four of its eight wins have come by 5 points or less. This team is actually getting outgained on the season despite its record because of a defense that is giving up a ridiculous 465 total yards per game. Ball State is 6-3 this season with all three of its losses coming against one-loss teams that are a combined 25-3 this year. This is a huge look ahead spot for the Rockets considering they have Northern Illinois on deck, which is the only other unbeaten team in MAC play. Ball State gets Toledo at the right time because of it, and I believe the Cardinals are simply the better team because they've played a much tougher schedule. Ball State is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Take this combined 26-2 (93%) ATS angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Ball State and the points. |
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11-03-12 | Arizona State v. Oregon State -4 | 26-36 | Win | 100 | 71 h 53 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy ASU/Oregon State ESPN 2 Saturday Night "BAILOUT" on Oregon State -4
The Oregon State Beavers are somehow still under the radar this season. They should be a much heavier favorite than they are Saturday at home against the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Beavers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Take Oregon State and lay the points. |
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11-03-12 | Oregon v. USC +8.5 | 62-51 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Oregon/USC FOX Saturday Night Surefire on USC +8.5
The Oregon Ducks finally play a team worthy of being on the same playing field as them Saturday. Both USC and Oregon are two of the most talented teams in the country with the best athletes you will ever see. Oregon has been dominating teams with its speed, but it finally will not have the athletic advantage over USC. The Trojans beat the Ducks on the road last season, and they'll likely pull off the upset for a second straight year simply because this is an excellent match-up for them. The Trojans are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss. USC is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 November games. Take USC and the points. |
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11-03-12 | Iowa v. Indiana -1.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy 2012 Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana -1.5
Iowa is simply terrible this season. Indiana is favored for a reason here as it is one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. Indiana is much better than its 3-5 record. It has four losses by 4 points or less against Navy, Ohio State, Michigan State and Ball State. This team is the real deal, but it has just been unfortunate in close games. The Hawkeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Take Indiana and lay the points. |
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11-03-12 | Nebraska v. Michigan State +2 | 28-24 | Loss | -105 | 65 h 44 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Nebraska/Michigan State Big Ten "BLOOD BATH" on Michigan State +2
Michigan State has one of the best run defenses in the country. It ranks 5th in the country in total defense (267.4 yards/game) and 7th against the run (92.3 yards/game). Nebraska is a running team behind Taylor Martinez, and just like Braxton Miller (Ohio State) and Denard Robinson (Michigan) struggled against the Spartans, Martinez will struggle as well. Take Michigan State and the points. |
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11-03-12 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +7 | 38-13 | Loss | -103 | 61 h 13 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Saturday CFB "UPSET SHOCKER" on Mississippi State +7
Texas A&M is way overvalued heading into this showdown with 7-1 Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 5-0 at home this season and should not be catching a touchdown at home Saturday. They are way undervalued after a bad loss to Alabama last week because everyone is looking bad against the Crimson Tide. The Aggies are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miss State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. Take Mississippi State and the points. |
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11-02-12 | Washington +4.5 v. California | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 15 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Washington/Cal Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington +4.5
The Washington Huskies are clearly the superior team here. They have managed to get through an absolutely brutal schedule that has featured LSU, Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona and Oregon State at a very respectable 4-4. Cal is just 3-6 on the season with its lone wins coming against Southern Utah, UCLA and Washington State. This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Bears, and they could find themselves looking ahead to Oregon next week. Washington is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Cal, so it has the Bears' number as well. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. I'll gladly back the better team here catching points when they shouldn't be. Take Washington and the points. |
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11-01-12 | Eastern Michigan v. Ohio -17 | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Thursday Night "BLOOD BATH" on Ohio -17
The Ohio Bobcats get the call Thursday as a 17-point favorite over Eastern Michigan. After breezing to a 7-0 start, the Bobcats finally got a wake-up call with a 20-23 road loss to MAC rival Miami (Ohio) last Saturday. I look for that loss to awaken this team, and for the Bobcats to come out with their best effort of the season against overmatched Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are just 1-7 this season, getting outscored 21.9 to 37.5, and outgained 336-491. They are no match for the superior Bobcats in this one. Eastern Michigan is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this year, getting outscored by an average of 21.5 points/game. Plays on home favorites (OHIO U) - good team (outgain opp. by 50-100 YPG) against a terrible team (minus 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, in conference games are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Ohio and lay the points. |
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10-27-12 | Oregon State -4 v. Washington | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 1 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Oregon State/Washington Saturday Night "BAILOUT" on Oregon State -4
The Oregon State Beavers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers. They are only a 4-point favorite here at Washington and get back starting quarterback Sean Mannion this week. The Beavers are 7-0 this season, while the Huskies are 3-4 on the year. These teams have a common opponent in Arizona. Oregon State beat Arizona 38-35 on the road on September 29th, while Washington lost at Arizona 17-52 last weekend. The Beavers are 40-14-1 ATS in their last 55 games in October. The Beavers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Huskies are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games in October. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. (This line has moved down to 3) Take Oregon State and lay the points. |
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10-27-12 | UNLV +18 v. San Diego State | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UNLV +18
The San Diego State Aztecs are in a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off a big overtime win by a final of 39-38 over Air Force last week, and they have a huge game at Boise State up next week. There's no question the Aztecs will be overlooking the 1-7 UNLV Rebels, who are much better than their record would indicate. UNLV has four losses by 8 points or less this season. The Rebels are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Take UNLV and the points. |
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10-27-12 | Ohio State v. Penn State +1 | 35-23 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Ohio State/Penn State ESPN Saturday Night Surefire on Penn State +1
The Penn State Nittany Lions get the call Saturday as a home underdog to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State is off to an 8-0 start this season, but three of their last four wins have come by a combined 11 points, and its luck runs out today. Penn State has bounced back nicely after an 0-2 start. It has won five straight games by double-digits since, including a 38-14 win at Iowa last week. The Nittany Lions are the real deal this season, but they aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers. They are looking at this as their bowl game since they aren't eligible for the postseason. Ohio State is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Take Penn State and the points. |
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10-27-12 | Kent State +14 v. Rutgers | Top | 35-23 | Win | 100 | 87 h 17 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State +14
The Kent State Golden Flashes are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They are off to a 6-1 start this season with five of those wins coming by double-digits. Rutgers is a very good team at 7-0, but it isn't going to run away with this contest by more than two touchdowns. The Scarlet Knights are simply overvalued here in a letdown spot against a non-conference opponent. Kent State is 6-0 ATS in games played on turf this season. Take Kent State and the points. |
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10-27-12 | Northern Illinois -7 v. Western Michigan | 48-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 46 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Early Afternoon "BLOOD BATH" on Northern Illinois -7
The Northern Illinois Huskies are the real deal. They are 7-1 on the season with their only loss coming in their opener against Iowa. Six of their seven wins have come by 7 points or more, and they have beaten Buffalo and Akron a combined 82-10 over the last two weeks. Western Michigan is a decent team, but at 3-5 and still without their starting quarterback, the Broncos stand no chance of keeping this one close. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons, winning by 20.5 points/game. Take Northern Illinois and lay the points. |
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10-25-12 | Clemson -11.5 v. Wake Forest | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 43 h 12 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Clemson/Wake Forest ESPN Thursday Night Surefire on Clemson -11.5
I look for Clemson to win its fourth straight meeting with Wake Forest tonight, and for it to be by two touchdowns or more. Clemson has outscored Wake 99-41 while winning three in a row in this series. I know last year's game was decided by three points, but the Tigers simply let the Demon Deacons hang around with mistakes because they outgained them 522-317 in what should have been a bigger blowout. Clemson is averaging 40.9 points and 492.9 total yards/game this season, while Wake is putting up just 22.0 points and 316.1 total yards/game. Simply put, the Demon Deacons do not have the offensive firepower it takes to keep up with the Tigers in this one. Wake is 1-11 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Demon Deacons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Take Clemson and lay the points. |
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10-23-12 | Arkansas State +5 v. Louisiana-Lafayette | Top | 50-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State +5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves have played a very tough schedule this season and they've gotten through it at 4-3 thus far. Two of their losses came on the road against Oregon and Nebraska, and the other was against Sun Belt power Western Kentucky, a game in which they blew a 13-point halftime lead. Arkansas State is outgaining opponents 449-376 for an average of 73 yards/game, while Louisiana-Lafayette is actually getting outgained 404-422, or by an average of 18 yards/game. These numbers are very telling given the strength of schedule these teams have faced, with the Red Wolves up against a much tougher schedule to this point. I really like Arkansas State QB Ryan Aplin, who has thrown for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns to two interceptions, while also rushing for 244 yards and three scores. I trust him a lot more than LA-Lafayette's backup QB Terrance Broadway, who did not play well in a loss to North Texas last week as he kept overthrowing receivers down the field. Take Arkansas State and the points. |
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10-20-12 | Cincinnati v. Toledo +5.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Toledo +5.5
The unbeaten No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) have been put on upset alert Saturday. This team has played a very soft schedule with the likes of Pitt, Delaware State, VA Tech, Miami Ohio and Fordham. This will be Cincinnati's first true road game, and it's a huge trap game for them with undefeated Louisville up next. Toledo is one of the most underrated teams in the land as it has opened 6-1 with its only loss coming on the road at Arizona in overtime. The Rockets feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country, one that is averaging 36.4 points and 475.0 total yards per game. Toledo boasts three of the nation's top offensive performers in quarterback Terrance Owens, receiver Bernard Reedy and running back David Fleullen. Owens averages 298.8 total yards per game, while Reedy has 52 receptions for 666 yards with five touchdowns and Fluellen has rushed for 792 and nine scores. Fordham QB Ryan Higgins completed 31 of 42 passes for 262 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati's defense last week, which is suspect at best. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Take Toledo and the points. |
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10-20-12 | Alabama v. Tennessee +20.5 | 44-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy 'Bama/Tennessee ESPN Saturday Night "BAILOUT" on Tennessee +20.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide have played a very soft schedule en route to their 6-0 start and No. 1 ranking in every poll. As a result, this team is certainly overvalued right now as they head into their toughest game of the season at Tennessee Saturday. This will be by far the best offense that they have faced, and I look for the Vols to have some success offensively. Tennessee averages 38.0 points and 482.3 total yards per game this season behind great play from quarterback Tyler Bray. Alabama is a big, physical team that handles running teams well, but they haven't seen a passing attack quite like the one they will be up against Saturday. Alabama's offense is far from spectacular and will have a hard time scoring enough points to cover this big number. Plays against any team (ALABAMA) - with an incredible defense - allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game are 35-6 (85.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Tennessee and the points. |
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10-20-12 | Michigan State +9.5 v. Michigan | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy MSU/Michigan Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +9.5
This is a great matchup for the Michigan State Spartans. Michigan State has a Top 10 defense, and Michigan's only two losses this season came against teams with Top 10 defenses. The Spartans rank 7th in total defense (270.1 YPG), including 8th against the run (92.7 YPG). Michigan's strength is QB Denard Robinson and a rushing attack (232.5 YPG) that ranks 16th in the land. Michigan State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan, and it limited Robinson to just 123 passing yards and 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in a 28-14 home victory in 2011. The betting public is down on MSU after two straight losses, but those defeats came by a combined four points. This team is much better than its 4-3 record at this point in the season, and it will show it Saturday. Take Michigan State and the points. |
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10-20-12 | Texas Tech v. TCU +2 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on TCU +2
The TCU Horned Frogs should not be an underdog at home to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech is coming off a huge blowout win over West Virginia, and it is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after that victory. Many people are down on TCU because of its home loss to Iowa State two weeks ago, but that Cyclones' team is better than it gets credit for, and the Frogs basically gave the game away by committing five turnovers. I know Tech beat Iowa State, but the Cyclones gave the ball away four times in that one. TCU's true colors showed in a thorough 49-21 beat down of Baylor on the road last week. The Frogs forced four interceptions in that game, and they have one of the best pass defenses in the land, which will be huge against Texas Tech's pass-happy offense. TCU is 15th in total defense (300.8 yards/game), including 31st against the pass (205.3 yards/game). Gary Patterson is 13-2 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of TCU. Patterson is also 14-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of TCU. Take TCU and the points. |
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10-20-12 | LSU v. Texas A&M +3.5 | 24-19 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +3.5
The Texas A&M Aggies should not be an underdog at home to the LSU Tigers Saturday. Texas A&M is one of the best-kept secrets in the country as it is much better than it gets credit for. This team would have been 12-1 last year had it not blown five double-digit leads. It returned 13 starters, and welcomed in new freshman starting quarterback Johnny Manziel, who is also one of the best-kept secrets in the land. Manziel is completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,680 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 676 yards and 10 scores. If he wasn't a freshman, he'd be getting a lot more serious consideration for the Heisman Trophy. Texas A&M's only loss came 17-20 to Florida after blowing a 17-10 halftime lead. LSU's only loss came 6-14 to Florida in a game that is was thoroughly dominated. That common opponent shows that this is at least an evenly matched game, and if anything the Aggies are the stronger team, and they are playing at home nonetheless. LSU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after allowing 4.25 or less yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992. Texas A&M is 8-0 ATS in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take Texas A&M and the points. |
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10-19-12 | Connecticut v. Syracuse -4 | Top | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy UConn/Syracuse ESPN Friday Night Surefire on Syracuse -4
Syracuse is 2-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to USC. It has averaged 27.7 points and 483 total yards/game in three home contests this year. UConn is 1-2 on the road, scoring 17.0 points while averaging a mere 297 total yards/game. I just don't believe the Huskies have the offensive firepower to keep up with this underrated Orange offense tonight. UConn is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons, getting outscoring by 12.5 points/game in this spot. Take Syracuse and lay the points. |
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10-16-12 | Louisiana-Lafayette -4 v. North Texas | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy LA-Lafayette/North Texas Sun Belt Surefire on Louisiana-Lafayette -4
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns are the superior team in this match-up. They are off to a 4-1 start, and you can look at one game to realize why they are the better team in this one. Lafayette went on the road and won at Troy 37-24, while North Texas lost at home to Troy 7-14. That common opponent says a lot about the quality of these two squads, especially considering the results home/away. Plus, Lafayette has won five straight meetings with North Texas. The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Lafayette is 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Lafayette and lay the points. |
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10-13-12 | Maryland v. Virginia -1 | 27-20 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 60 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -1
The Virgina Cavaliers should be a heavier favorite here. Maryland is getting too much credit for its 3-2 start. The Terrapins have a terrible offense as they are averaging just 20.8 points/game and 274.0 total yards/game. Virginia is a much better team than its 2-4 record would indicate. It has an amazing offense, averaging 429.3 total yards/game, and it is outgaining opponents by 28.1 yards/game despite being two games below .500. What has hurt the Cavaliers to this point is their -12 turnover differential, but I look for that to even itself as the season goes on. Virginia has played a brutal schedule too with its last five games coming against Penn State, Georgia Tech, TCU, LA Tech and Duke. It is battle-tested and ready to put an end to this 4-game skid Saturday. The Terrapins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Maryland, and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home meetings. Take Virginia and lay the points. |
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10-13-12 | North Carolina v. Miami (Florida) +8 | Top | 18-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 31 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +8
The Miami Hurricanes are showing excellent value as an 8-point home underdog Saturday. This line is an overreaction from what happened last week. The Tar Heels beat Virginia Tech by 14 points at home, while the Hurricanes lost at Notre Dame 3-41. UNC is feeling good about themselves and getting patted on the back. Meanwhile, Miami is furious over its performance, and I look for them to take it out on the Tar Heels here. Miami is 3-0 in ACC play and scoring 42.3 points/game, and it is 2-0 at home this season scoring 41.0 points/game. UNC is 0-2 on the road, giving up 33.5 points/game away from home. Miami is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Miami and the points. |
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10-13-12 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -10 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 30 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Saturday Afternoon "BLOOD BATH" on Virginia Tech -10
The Virginia Tech Hokies are steaming mad over back-to-back road losses to Cincinnati and North Carolina. I look for them to take out their frustration against an overrated Duke team at home Saturday. Duke is 5-1 on the season despite barely outgaining opponents on the season. Its five wins have come against FIU, NC Central, Memphis, Wake Forest and Virginia, so the Blue Devils have played an easy schedule to say the least. They won't be ready for the intensity they are going to see on the opposing sidelines Saturday from a VA Tech team that simply wants this one more. VA Tech is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 33.0 to 8.0 on average. All three of its losses have come on the road. The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Hokies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hokies are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Virginia Tech is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. The Hokies are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. Take Virginia Tech and lay the points. |
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10-13-12 | Texas v. Oklahoma -3 | 21-63 | Win | 100 | 39 h 0 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Oklahoma/Texas Red River Rivalry Surefire on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners are the superior team in this match-up with the Texas Longhorns. That will show on the field Saturday as they beat the Longhorns for a third straight time in this Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma beat Texas 55-17 last year, and it has at least as much talent back from that team behind QB Landry Jones and company. The Longhorns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Oklahoma had a bye two weeks ago and came back and dominated Texas Tech 41-20 on the road last week. The Sooners are the fresher team and they are playing the better football coming into this one considering Texas lost at home to West Virginia last week. The Sooners have the better defense, which will be the difference in this one. Oklahoma is giving up 16.0 points/game this season, while Texas is yielding 26.4 points/game, and it has allowed 31 or more in three straight. Take Oklahoma and lay the points. |
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10-13-12 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +3 | 45-35 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 59 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Louisville/Pitt Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +3
The Pittsburgh Panthers get the call Saturday as a home underdog to the overrated Louisville Cardinals. Louisville is ranked right now due to its 5-0 start against one of the easiest schedules you will ever see. It has home wins over Kentucky, Missouri State and North Carolina, and narrow road wins over Florida International and Southern Miss. This game against Pitt will be the toughest that the Cardinals have faced this season. The Panthers have won two of their last three, including a dominant 35-17 home victory over Virginia Tech. Their lone loss came by a single point at Syracuse in a game they really gave away. Pitt has owned Louisville, winning four straight in this series by a combined score of 107-34, going 4-0 ATS in the process. The Panthers should not be an underdog given that recent history. Take Pittsburgh and the points. |
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10-12-12 | Navy v. Central Michigan -2 | 31-13 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Navy/CMU ESPN 2 Friday Night "BLOOD BATH" on Central Michigan -2
The Central Michigan Chippewas should be a heavier favorite tonight against the Navy Midshipmen. Central Michigan proved it could play with the big boys when it went on the road and beat Iowa earlier this season. The Chippewas have had a brutal schedule thus far with a home game against Michigan State, and three road games at Iowa, Northern Illinois and Toledo. They are certainly battle-tested, and this game against Navy will be the second-easiest contest they've played this season. The Midshipmen have been atrocious this season, losing 10-50 to Notre Dame, 7-34 to Penn State and 0-12 at home to San Jose State. This is a rebuilding year for Navy to say the least. The Midshipmen are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. MAC opponents. Navy is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Friday games. The Midshipmen are allowing 67.7% completions this season, so look for QB Ryan Radcliff and this CMU passing game to have its way with their defense. Take Central Michigan and lay the points. |
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10-11-12 | Western Kentucky -1.5 v. Troy | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy WKU/Troy Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky -1.5
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have been perhaps the most underrated team in the country over the last two seasons. All they do is keep covering the spread and pulling off upset after upset. They are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming at Alabama 0-35. They have upset road wins over Kentucky and Arkansas State already, and I look for them to go on the road and take down Troy tonight. WKU beat Troy 41-18 last season while rushing for 338 yards. I look for it to run wild on this soft Trojans' defense once again. WKU ranks 23rd in the country in rushing at 213.0 yards/game, while Troy ranks 89th against the run at 188.8 yards/game allowed. Troy's strength is a passing attack that ranks 11th at 324.6 yards/game, but WKU's strength defensively is a pass defense that ranks 14th, yielding just 175.4 yards/game. This is simply an excellent match-up for the Hilltoppers tonight folks. The Hilltoppers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 18-3 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Take Western Kentucky and lay the points. |
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10-06-12 | UNLV +27 v. Louisiana Tech | 31-58 | Push | 0 | 49 h 31 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UNLV +27
The UNLV Rebels are simply catching too many points Saturday against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. UNLV is a much better team than its 1-4 record would indicate as it has three losses by 8 points or less. Louisiana Tech is a quality team at 4-0, but it is getting too much respect because of that start. I expect the Bulldogs to be looking ahead to the Texas A&M game next week, which will allow UNLV to stay within this ridiculous spread as LA Tech won't have its "A Game". Take UNLV and the points. |
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10-06-12 | Georgia Tech +10.5 v. Clemson | 31-47 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy GA Tech/Clemson ESPN Saturday Afternoon Surefire on Georgia Tech +10.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are way undervalued this week after getting upset by Middle Tennessee State last Saturday. Of course they were overlooking the Blue Raiders and looking ahead to this showdown with Clemson. After such a poor performance, you can expect the Yellow Jackets to put their best foot forward this Saturday. It will be enough to cover this inflated spread as Georgia Tech has an excellent chance to win outright. Georgia Tech simply has Clemson's number, winning five of the last six meetings in this series. The Tigers have not been able to stop the Yellow Jackets' ground attack as they have allowed 300 or more yards rushing in three of the last four meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite are 44-16 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. The underdog is 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series. Take Georgia Tech and the points. |
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10-06-12 | LSU v. Florida +3 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 45 h 4 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy LSU/Florida SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida +3
The Florida Gators are the real deal this season, and they'll prove it by knocking off No. 4 LSU Saturday in The Swamp. The Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. That was evident with their 12-10 win at Auburn as an 18-point favorite, and their 38-22 home victory over Towson last week as a 43.5-point favorite. Florida has two great wins this year at Texas A&M and Tennessee to prove they are for real. The Gators also come off a bye, which gives them a huge edge in rest and preparation. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. Take Florida and the points. |
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10-06-12 | UMass +17 v. Western Michigan | 14-52 | Loss | -104 | 44 h 32 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Saturday "UPSET SHOCKER" on UMass +17
The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. Obviously their 0-5 start has them undervalued right now, and I'll gladly take advantage Saturday as they are catching 17 points against an overrated Western Michigan team. The Broncos will be without starting quarterback Alex Carder for a second straight week. He is the school's all-time leading passer and he's simply irreplaceable. It did not go well for backup Tyler VanTubbergen in his first start last week in place of the injured Carder. He threw three interceptions in a 17-37 home loss to Toledo. UMass gave a very good Ohio team a run for its money last week, and the Minutemen keep improving with each game. They lost 34-37 at home as a 23.5-point underdog to the Bobcats, actually outgaining them 511-503 for the game. Ohio is 5-0 this season, and it is one of the most underrated teams in the nation. Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (W MICHIGAN) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a team with a terrible rushing defense (>=4.8 YPR), after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1992. Take UMass and the points. |
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10-06-12 | South Florida -3.5 v. Temple | 28-37 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 32 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Saturday Big East "BLOOD BATH" on South Florida -3.5
The South Florida Bulls are showing excellent value due to their slow start against a pretty tough schedule. After three straight losses to Rutgers, Ball State and Florida State, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with a big victory over the lowly Temple Owls in Big East action. With 15 starters back from last season, the Bulls are the most talented team in the Big East. With only eight starters back, the Temple Owls (1-2) are arguably the worst team in the Big East. Both of these facts will show Saturday as the Bulls roll the Owls on the field. South Florida is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers since 1992. Take South Florida and lay the points. |
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10-05-12 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -1.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Pitt/Syracuse Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -1.5
The Syracuse Orange say enough is enough tonight. After losing the last seven meetings to Pittsburgh, it's time for them to put an end to this losing streak. The Orange are favored for a good reason tonight as oddsmakers know that they are the play here. This is the best 1-3 team in the country folks as their three losses have come to USC, Minnesota and Northwestern by a combined 21 points. Despite being 1-3, the Orange have actually outgained all four opponents that they have faced, and they probably should be 4-0 if not for turnovers. I look for Syracuse to take care of the football tonight, which will be the key to putting an end to their losing streaking in this series. The Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Syracuse and lay the points. |
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10-04-12 | USC v. Utah +14.5 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Trojans/Utes ESPN Thursday Night Surefire on Utah +14.5
The Utah Utes want revenge from their 23-14 loss at USC last season. They were attempting to kick the game-tying field goal on the final play of regulation, but it was blocked by the Trojans and returned for a touchdown. Utah has 16 starters back from that team that nearly sent USC to overtime on the road last year. It is fully capable of pulling off the upset at home this time around, and there's no question the Utes will stay within 14 points tonight in this nationally televised home game. Utah has the type of defense that can allow it to be competitive with almost any team in the country. The Utes are only giving up 21.2 points and 29.5 total yards/game this season. In two home games this year, the Utes are 2-0 while allowing 10.5 points and 213.0 total yards/game against BYU and Northern Colorado. In two road games this year, USC is 1-1 while beating Syracuse by just 13 points as a 24.5-point favorite and losing at Stanford 14-21 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Trojans simply aren't as good as they were expected to be coming into the season. The Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Take Utah and the points. |
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10-04-12 | East Carolina v. Central Florida -11 | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB Thursday Night "BLOOD BATH" on UCF -11
The UCF Knights want revenge from a 31-38 loss at East Carolina last season as a 7-point favorite. The home team has won three straight in this series, including a 49-35 victory by UCF in 2010. The Knights are one of the best non-BCS teams in the country, and after playing a very tough schedule in the early going, they are battle-tested and ready to put away the Pirates tonight. UCF's two losses have come at Ohio State (16-31) as a 15.5-point underdog, and at home against Missouri (16-21) as a 1.5-point favorite. UCF actually outplayed Missouri in that game, but gave up an 80-yard touchdown pass and a 66-yard punt return. The Knights outgained the Tigers 395-346 for the game and held them to 1-for-11 on third downs. Those two big plays were the difference. I look for the Knights to come back hungry today. ECU was much less competitive against two elite programs, losing 10-48 at South Carolina and 6-27 at North Carolina in their two losses this season. The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. UCF is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take UCF and lay the points. |
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09-29-12 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic +6.5 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 66 h 44 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +6.5
*No Analysis On Vacation* |
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09-29-12 | Ohio v. UMass +24.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 64 h 14 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +24.5
*No Analysis On Vacation* |
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09-29-12 | Buffalo +16 v. Connecticut | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 61 h 44 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +16
*No Analysis On Vacation* |
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09-29-12 | North Carolina State v. Miami (Florida) -2.5 | Top | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 61 h 45 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -2.5
*No Analysis On Vacation* |
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09-28-12 | Hawaii v. BYU -27.5 | Top | 0-47 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
6* Widow Wiseguy Hawaii/BYU ESPN Friday Night Surefire on BYU -27.5
The BYU Cougars are looking to take out their frustration on the Hawaii Warriors tonight. I believe they do so by four-plus touchdowns to easily cover this big number with room to spare. BYU has lost its last two games on the road to Utah and Boise State by a combined four points. It has a lot of anger built up inside, and the Warriors aren't going to stand a chance when the Cougars unleash that anger on them tonight. Hawaii just lost at home 24-69 to Nevada last time out, which was their second loss of the season by 39 or more points. This is a team in rebuilding mode and one that isn't even on the same planet as BYU talent-wise. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons. BYU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC foes. Take this combined 21-1 ATS Angle in favor of the Cougars straight to the bank tonight. Take BYU and lay the points. |
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