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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-28-14 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -158 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Giants -158 The Key: This is a tough situation for the Padres, who are playing their eighth straight on the road after making the long cross-country trip from Washington D.C. The Giants will be the more energized team as they've been able to rest their heads on their own pillows since returning from Colorado April 23. The Giants bring momentum into this series following a three-game sweep of Cleveland. And, they'll be hungry after losing the season's first series with San Diego. The Padres defeated Washington 4-2 yesterday, but they are 3-17 in road games following a win of 2 runs or less over the last two seasons. San Diego's Tyson Ross hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he's 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts this season. His clubs are 0-2 in his two starts in San Francisco. The Padres are 4-10 in Ross' last 14 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven on the road. Madison Bumgarner is always tough against the division, as evidenced by the Giants' 37-18 record in his last 55 starts versus the NL West. The Giants are 5-0 in his last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 16-4 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Most importantly, the Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last seven home starts versus the Padres. With Ross never winning in San Francisco, and Bumgarner having not lost there versus the Padres since 2009, we have a 100% perfect 9-0 angle in our favor. Take San Francisco. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Baseball "Total" Annihilator on Angels/Yankees Under 8.0 The Key: I like the "Under" tonight in a matchup of pitchers in good form. LAs Garrett Richards has a 2.52 ERA through four starts, and this number shrinks to 1.00 in a pair of road starts. He held the Yankees to just two runs in his most recent start in Yankee Stadium last August. The Yanks are averaging just 3.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season and have hit only 10 home runs against righty starters. They don't figure to take Richards deep as he hasn't given up a homer in his last five starts. The "Under" is 8-2 in Richards' last 10 road starts and 7-0 in his last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. NYs Masahiro Tanaka has had his way with the opposition through his first four major-league starts. He has a 2.15 ERA on the season and a 1.81 ERA in a pair of home starts. He has 35 Ks and only two walks, and I expect to see another big strikeout number tonight against an Angels' club that averages over 8 Ks per game. Tanaka has nasty stuff, and even good hitting teams will struggle against him until they become more familiar with him. Take the Under. |
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04-26-14 | Detroit Tigers -146 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-5 | Loss | -146 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -146 The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Sanchez, whose ERA (3.54) is nearly three runs lower than Hughes' ERA (6.43). Plus, Sanchez's ERA versus the Twins (2.57) is over two runs lower than Hughes' ERA versus the Tigers (4.87). The Tigers are 7-0 in Sanchez's last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 in his last four starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Hughes is 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Tigers. In addition, the Twins are 16-36 in their last 52 home games and 16-51 in their last 67 home games versus a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 19-47 the last three seasons in home games versus AL starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or lower and 15-46 during this span versus starters who give up an average of 0.5 home runs or less per game. You want to fade AL home teams that allow 5.2 runs per game or more after a game where they allowed 10 runs or more as doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons. Tigers are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Minnesota. Take the Tigers. |
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04-25-14 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets -105 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Mets -105 The Key: The Mets are showing some nice value at this price against a Miami club that is 1-8 on the road. Looking back, the Marlins are 27-72 in their last 99 road games. The Mets bring a ton of momentum into this series after taking three of four from St. Louis. They are 7-3 in their last 10, including 4-1 in their last five. New York scheduled starter Zack Wheeler has looked strong in his last two starts (both NY wins), and I expect him to keep right on dealing versus a Miami club that has struggled offensively on the road (2.4 runs per game). The Marlins are just 4-11 in Henderson Alvarez's last 15 starts, 0-4 in his last four division starts and 0-5 in his last five road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Marlins are just 6-14 in their last 20 meetings in New York. Take the Mets. |
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04-24-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays -134 | 11-4 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -134 The Key: I like the Blue Jays at home with Drew Hutchison on the hill. He's been lights out in three of four starts this season. One of those came against Baltimore, and he has a 1.00 ERA in three starts versus the Orioles. He has tossed 13 consecutive scoreless innings against the O's. Baltimore defeated the Jays with Bud Norris on the mound Apr. 12, but I don't expect an encore performance on the road where he is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA this season. Norris is 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA over his last six outings, losing all three on the road behind a 6.59 ERA while giving up a .304 average to opposing batters. The Orioles are 14-41 in the last 55 meetings in Toronto. Take the Jays. |
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04-23-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -156 | 3-0 | Loss | -156 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on A's -156 The Key: I missed with the A’s yesterday as they blew the game with two outs in the ninth, but I won't hesitate to come right back with them this afternoon as they are still 37-16 in their last 53 games following a loss and 18-6 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent. Plus, they have the edge on the mound with Gray. The Athletics are 8-2 in Gray's last 10 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus American League West foes. He has a 1.80 ERA on the season and should have no trouble shutting down a Texas team that isn't familiar with him at all. Perez has been great early for Texas, but he was rocked in his only road start of the season and has an ERA of 5.79 against Oakland. He's lost three of his last four starts against the A's. You want to fade Wednesday underdogs of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start. Doing so has produced a 120-44 mark the last five seasons. Take the A's. |
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04-22-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -157 | 5-4 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -157 The Key: The A's haven't lost consecutive games all season, going 5-0 in their last five following a defeat. Looking back further, they are 37-15 in their last 52 games following a loss. The A's are 218-96 in their last 314 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 102-46 in their last 148 games as a favorite overall and 69-30 in their last 99 games as a home favorite. Oakland is 6-1 in Milone's last seven starts as a favorite and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rangers are without Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar and Geovany Soto, and Shin-Soo Choo could miss this game as well. The banged-up Rangers are just 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog. Take the A's. |
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04-21-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's +1.5 (-150) The Key: The A's are showing some nice value catching 1.5 runs at this price. Texas has lost four of six road games this season, and it is 4-12 in its last 16 series openers dating back to last season. The Rangers haven't been on the road since April 9, and they are 0-4 in their last four games versus Oakland. Darvish has been brilliant thus far. The Rangers have won each of his three starts, but the last two wins came by a single run. Darvish has had a rough go of it versus Oakland. The Rangers are 0-6 in his last six starts versus the A's, including 0-2 in two career starts in Oakland. He was rocked in both of those starts, giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Straily has been good against Texas, going 2-0 in his last two starts against the Rangers. In six career starts against them, the A's have won or lost by a single run in five of them. Take the A's on the run line.  |
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04-20-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals -137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -137 The Key: This is a good price to bet Strasburg at home. He is coming off a bad outing in Miami, which means he'll be extremely focused here. The guy rarely has back-to-back poor showings. The Nationals are 9-3 in Strasburg's last 12 starts, 4-1 in his last 5 home starts, 12-2 in his last 14 Sunday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 game 4 of a series starts. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 game 4's of a series while the Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 game 4's. The Nationals are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while the Cardinals are 4-12 in their last 16 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. You want to back favorites with a money line of -110 or higher in the first half of the season if they are batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games. Doing so has produced a 102-40 mark the last 5 seasons. You also want to fade road teams with a starting pitcher who gives up an average of 1.0 home run or more per start if the bullpen has thrown 5 innings or less over the last 3 games. That's because doing so has produced an 82-37 mark the last 5 seasons. Take the Nats. |
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04-19-14 | San Francisco Giants -127 v. San Diego Padres | 1-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Giants -127 The Key: First off, this is a nice price to back the Giants on the road where they are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres won the opener 2-1, but they are 4-10 in their last 14 games following a win and 0-5 in their last five in the second game of a series. San Francisco's Hudson has been defying his age. He has a 2.35 ERA on the season, and his teams are 8-0 in his last eight starts. Stults has stumbled out of the gate and has a 5.52 ERA. The Padres are 2-9 in Stults' last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record. Hudson is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts versus the Padres. Stults has a 6-4 record in 15 starts against the Giants, but it's deceiving as his ERA in these starts is 5.44. We'll take the better offensive team with the better starter on the mound at a pretty nice price.  |
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04-18-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -137 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Royals -137 The Key: The Royals will be all business when they take the field tonight as they seek revenge for getting swept last weekend in Minneapolis. Despite losing each of the season's first three meetings with the Twins, the Royals are still 18-8 in the last 26 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 at home. The Twins have lost five of their last six series openers and are just 4-10 in their last 14 on the road. The Royals are 4-0 in their last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 7-2 in their last nine series openers, 15-6 in their last 21 home games and 6-1 in their last seven games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Nolasco shut down the Royals in his last starts, but things haven't gone as well for him on the road where he has given up five earned runs or more in each of his last four starts. Vargas has been lights out (1.64 ERA), and he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of four home starts against the Twins. You want to back teams following a stretch where they allowed four runs or less in four straight games if they are averaging 4.5 runs per game or less on the season and are up against an AL starter with an ERA of 4.70 to 5.70. Doing so has produced a 42-14 mark the last 3 seasons. Take the Royals. |
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04-17-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants -110 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB *AFTERNOON DELIGHT* on Giants -110 The Key: The Giants have won four of five against the Dodgers this season, and I expect them to earn the three-game series sweep this afternoon behind Bumgarner. Going back to last season, the Giants are 6-0 in his last six starts. He is 9-3 with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 0.991 in 12 starts against the Dodgers, including 3-0 in his last three overall and 3-0 in his last three at home. He gave up just two runs while striking out 10 and walking one in a 7-2 victory over the Dodgers April 5. LA's Ryu is 2-3 with an ERA of 3.89 in six starts against the Giants. He gave up 8 runs while striking out only two and walking three in an 8-4 defeat to San Francisco April 4. The Dodgers are now 0-4 in their last four meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants.  |
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04-16-14 | Colorado Rockies +139 v. San Diego Padres | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rockies +139 The Key: The Rockies are showing value at this price with De La Rosa on the hill. The southpaw has had San Diego's number. The Rockies are 11-0 in his last 11 starts versus the Padres and 5-0 all-time in his road starts versus the Padres. He's given up three earned runs or less in each of the five victories in San Diego. Cashner has a 5.56 ERA in four starts against the Rockies. The Padres are 0-2 in his last two starts against the Rockies, and he was outdueled by De La Rosa in both of these. San Diego is also 0-2 all-time in his two home starts versus the Rockies as well. In addition, Colorado has a significant edge at the plate where it is batting .305 and scoring 5.9 runs per game against right-handed starters. San Diego is batting .185 and scoring 3.0 runs per game against left-handed starters. Take Colorado. |
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04-14-14 | Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres -118 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Padres -118
The Key: I'll get behind San Diego at this price with the edge they have on the mound with Stults. His teams are 7-0 all-time in his starts against the Rockies, and he's held them to three earned runs or less in five of these starts. Lyles is 0-2 in two career starts at San Diego, given up nine earned runs in 10 innings. San Diego's on-base percentage is only .270, but that didn't stop it from an impressive series win over the Detroit Tigers. Besides, Lyles' teams are 0-14 lifetime in his road starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 17-41 in their last 58 road games and 14-38 in their last 52 road games versus a left-handed starter. The Padres are 35-16 in their last 51 games as a home favorite. Take San Diego. |
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04-13-14 | Kansas City Royals -119 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Royals -119
The Key: Look for Kansas City to pick up its first road win of the season this afternoon. The Royals have been struggling offensively in this series, but they catch a break here with Correia heading to the hill. His teams are 0-6 lifetime in his starts against the Royals, and he's posted a 5.29 ERA in these outings. In addition, the Twins are 0-6 in Correia's last 6 starts, 0-7 in his last 7 home starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts on 5 days' rest, 0-5 in his last 5 starts divisional starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Correia has a 6.17 ERA through 2 starts this season while Kansas City's Vargas has an ERA of only 1.20. Take Kansas City. |
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04-12-14 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -135 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -135
The Key: San Francisco has had Colorado's number. The Giants have won 42 of the last 61 meetings overall and 35 of the last 51 at home. The Rockies are only 2-14 in San Francisco since Aug. 11, 2012, which comes as no surprise since they are 16-40 in their last 56 road games overall. Cain has been a thorn in Colorado's side. He's 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA in seven starts against the Rockies since June 3, 2011, and has held them to a .198 average during this span. The Giants are 7-0 in his last seven home starts versus the Rockies. Colorado's Anderson is 0-2 in two starts against the Giants, and both came at AT&T Park where he's compiled a 7.00 ERA and .351 opponents' batting average. Anderson's teams are 5-19 in his starts as an underdog of +150 or less. Take San Francisco. |
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04-11-14 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Angels -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Angels -160
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Mets, who had to make the long cross-country trip late last night after playing in Atlanta. While the Mets will be feeling jet lag, the Angels will be fresh after having yesterday off. The Halos will also be hungry as they look to capture their first home win of the season. The Angels are 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. Southpaw Tyler Skaggs spun a gem in his first start of the season, and I'm expecting another one as he faces a New York club that is 3-13 in its last 16 games versus a left-handed starter. The Mets are 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last four road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four interleague games, 4-0 in their last four versus the National League East and 5-0 in their last five interleague games versus a right-handed starter (Gee). The Angels are also 5-1 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 13-4 in their last 17 versus a team with a losing record. Take the Angels. |
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04-10-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies -117 | 6-2 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Phillies -117
The Key: Milwaukee has won five straight (all on the road), but I believe its run comes to an end this evening. The Brewers have been swinging the sticks (.280 batting avg.), but Cliff Lee is still one of the best in the game. He gave up no runs in 7 innings of a 2-0 win at Chicago last time out while striking out 6 and walking no one. History is clear, you want to fade any NL team with a batting average of .275 or better when they are up against a starting pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. Doing so has produced a 31-12 mark the last five seasons. The Phillies are 4-1 in Lee's last 5 home starts, 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a favorite and 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite. The Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a home favorite, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-2 in their last 9 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Lee has given up 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts against Milwaukee with his teams winning 4 of these outings. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada, on the other hand, has an ERA of 9.00 in two starts against Philadelphia. It is also worth noting that the Brewers have done most of their damage at the plate against righties. They are batting just .224 and scoring only 3.0 runs per game off lefty starters this season. Take Philly. |
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04-09-14 | Los Angeles Angels -108 v. Seattle Mariners | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Angels -108
The Key: The Angels have lost all four meetings with Seattle this season, and I expect them to dig down deep to make sure the skid comes to an end tonight. Richards looked good in his first start, earning an easy win over Houston. He's also looked good against Seattle, going 2-1 with an ERA of 2.53 in three starts. He gave up only 4 hits in 7 1-3 innings of a 2-0 victory Aug. 23 in his most recent start at Safeco. The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-1 in Richards' last 5 starts as a favorite. The Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win, 6-13 in their last 19 home games and 6-15 in their last 21 games versus a right-handed starter. Take the Halos. |
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04-08-14 | San Diego Padres v. Cleveland Indians -145 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Indians -145
The Key: Cleveland is supported by a very lucrative system here. Teams in the first 12 games of the season that closed last season with 20 wins or more in their last 30 games are 65-25 the last 5 seasons. If the team we are playing is a favorite of -110 or more, had a winning record last season and is playing a club that had a losing season, this system tightens up to 37-7. The Tribe has been terrific at home with Kluber on the mound. It is 8-1 in his last 9 home starts, including 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite. The Padres are 2-8 in Ross' last 10 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. Take the Tribe. |
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04-07-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals +106 | 2-4 | Win | 106 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Royals +106
The Key: The Royals are showing some nice value at this price given their success against Tampa Bay and Vargas' success against Tampa Bay. The Royals are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 in the last 7. They are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home in the series, winning these by an average of 5.3 runs. The Rays are 0-2 in Moore's starts against Kansas City, and he has an ERA of 6.40 in these games. Vergas has an ERA of 3.47 in 8 starts against the Rays. He's given up no earned runs in two of his last three starts against them and has held them to 3 earned runs or less in five of the eight starts. He's won two of his last three starts against them and three of his last five. This is also a bad scheduling spot for Tampa Bay, who takes the road for the first time this season and without a day of rest. This is Kansas City's fourth straight game at home, and it will be ready. Take the Royals. |
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04-06-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -147 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
6* ESPN2 Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -147
The Key: The Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series, but I look for them to bounce back strong behind a gem from Greinke. Greinke's clubs are 24-6 in his home starts since the start of the 2012 season. The Dodgers are 11-1 in Greinke's starts when he gets the ball following a team loss. The Dodgers are 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 12-1 in his last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in the third game of a series and 10-1 in his last 11 divisional starts. Greinke's teams are 38-13 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Giants are 3-13 in Cain's last 16 starts, including 0-6 in his last 6. The Giants are 0-6 in Cain's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the National League West and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. Lastly, the Giants are 1-6 in Cain's last 7 starts versus Dodgers, including 0-3 in his last 3 overall and 0-3 in his last 3 in LA. Greinke's teams are 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Take the Dodgers. |
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04-05-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -128 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Rockies -128
The Key: The Rockies are showing tremendous value at this price at home with De La Rosa on the hill. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter, which comes as no surprise because they haven't been able to figure out De La Rosa. He has a 2.53 ERA in 16 starts against them, and the Rockies are 9-0 all-time in his home starts against them. He hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in any of these 9 starts. Backing De La Rosa at home has paid off big time as the Rockies are 44-15 in his last 59 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in McCarthy's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take Colorado. |
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04-04-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -148 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Royals -148
The Key: Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Guthrie. The Royals are 18-5 in his last 23 home starts and 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus the White Sox. He gave up 2 earned runs or fewer in each of the seven wins. The Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 21-5 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago's Erik Johnson isn't nearly as proven. Plus, his team is just 15-43 in its last 58 road games and 2-10 in its last 12 road games versus a right-handed starter. Take KC. |
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04-03-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -149 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rays -149
The Key: After winning the series opener 9-2, the Rays have dropped the last two while scoring just two total runs. That should change here with Toronto sending Morrow to the mound. The right-hander has really struggled against the Rays, giving up at least 5 earned runs in four of his last six starts against them. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Morrow's last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Archer gives Tampa Bay the edge on the mound with a 1.65 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays. The Rays are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 16-44 in their last 60 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays. |
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04-02-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -134 | 8-2 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Angels -134
The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Angels to dig down deep and gut out a win tonight. Seattle hasn't started 3-0 since 1995, and it is on a 9-20 slide after two or more consecutive wins. The Mariners are also on a 10-24 skid after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. The Angels, on the other hand, are 99-61 under Scioscia in home games after allowing eight runs or more. You want to fade American League teams with a starting pitcher who had a WHIP of 1.300 or better last season after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. Doing so has produced a 23-7 mark the last three seasons. Seattle is on a 4-17 skid after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs. Lastly, the Mariners are 22-50 in their last 72 road games in the series. Take the Halos. |
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04-01-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -142 v. San Diego Padres | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Dodgers -142
The Key: Zack Greinke has dominated the NL West since becoming a member of the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers are 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus the division. He's done plenty of damage against the Padres throughout his career. He's 3-0 (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.74 in five career starts versus San Diego. Three of these starts came in San Diego so he's clearly very comfortable pitching there. Ian Kennedy has struggled against the Dodgers. His clubs are 0-3 in his last three starts against them, and he's been tagged for 14 runs in 17 2/3 innings in these starts. The Dodgers do not like Kennedy, a feeling that stems from an incident last season when he drilled Yasiel Puig in the face and later Greinke in the back. Off a loss in the first game of the series and facing a starter they detest, the Dodgers will bring a great deal of focus and fire to the ballpark today. |
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03-31-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Oakland A's -134 | 2-0 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
6* MLB Opening Day Annihilator on A's -134
The Key: I don't trust Cleveland's Masterson here. The right-hander has an ERA of 8.10 in eight career starts against the A's and is 0-5 in five career starters in Oakland. The Indians are also 1-7 in Masterson's last eight starts as a road underdog. The Athletics have been a tremendous favorite at 90-44 in their last 134 games in the role. They are 63-28 in their last 91 games as a home favorite. They are also 5-1 in Gray's last six starts. Take Oakland. |
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03-30-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres +100 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
6* MLB Opening Night Annihilator on Padres +100
The Key: The value lies with the Padres at this price with Cashner on the bump. He's 0-1 with a 0.82 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in three starts against the Dodgers. He struck out 16 in those starts and did not allow a home run in 22 innings. The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight series openers and 10-4 in their last 14 home games. Look for Cashner to outduel Ryu at home tonight. |
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10-30-13 | St. Louis Cardinals +108 v. Boston Red Sox | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +108
The Key: What have the Cardinals done with their back against the wall you ask? They have gone 7-0 when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 7.1 to 3.7. Wacha has shown no signs of coming back down to earth, going 5-0 in his last five starts while allowing only three total runs during this stretch. Lacky hasn't been nearly as sharp. He's given up 3 runs or more in seven of his last nine starts. Wacha outdueled Lackey at Fenway in Game 2, and I expect the same result tonight. |
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10-28-13 | Boston Red Sox v. St. Louis Cardinals -111 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
7* World Series Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -111
The Key: Boston's Jon Lester hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he has a 4.18 ERA. The Red Sox are just 6-12 in his last 18 road starts. St. Louis hasn't been as strong against left-handed starters this season, but it is 4-0 in its last four home games versus a southpaw starters. Adam Wainwright has been at his best at home where he has a 2.36 ERA. The Cardinals are 6-0 in his last six home starts overall and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus a team with a winning record. Wainwright has a 1.07 ERA in eight career postseason games - four starts - in St. Louis. Look for the Cards to take care of business behind a gem from their ace. |
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10-27-13 | Boston Red Sox +104 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 4-2 | Win | 104 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox +104
The Key: I expect a strong outing from Clay Buchholz, who has had extra time to rest his shoulder. He was 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA while pitching on at least six days' rest in the regular season. Buchholz has been brilliant on the road, going 6-0 with a 1.76 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholz's last 5 starts versus NL clubs. Yesterday's 5-4 score is significant as the Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are also 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-6 in his last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Boston. |
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10-26-13 | Boston Red Sox v. St. Louis Cardinals -102 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -102
The Key: I expect St. Louis to ride the momentum of its Game 2 victory to a 2-1 series lead. The Cardinals have been nearly unbeatable at home when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. They are 43-12 in their last 55 home games versus a right-handed starter, including 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus AL right-handed starters. The Cards will have an excellent opportunity to extend these runs against Peavy, who has a 5.56 ERA on the road and a 7.98 ERA over his last three starts. Peavy has struggled against St. Louis, going 3-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 starts. Boston isn't nearly as familiar with Joe Kelly's stuff. The St. Louis right-hander has an ERA of 2.53 on the season. That's nearly two runs lower than Peavy's 4.40 mark. The Cardinals are 7-1 in Kelly's last 8 home starts, including 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 11-1 in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Take St. Louis. |
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10-24-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Boston Red Sox -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -118
The Key: Wacha has been sensational over his last four starts, but I have to go with the experience of Lackey here. Lackey has been terrific all season at home where he's 7-3 with a 2.71 ERA. The Red Sox are 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. In addition, he's pitched in the World Series before, earning a 4-1 victory in Game 7 against San Francisco as a rookie in 2002 while pitching for the Angels. That performance shows you the stuff Lackey is made of. We saw a dominant performance from him in the ALCS, outdueling Verlander, and I expect another one here. Wacha hasn't been scared of the moment thus far, but the stakes have been raised here. This is the biggest game of his life, in arguably the most legendary ballpark on the planet against the best hitting team he's seen. I believe he'll finally succumb to the pressure. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. They are 9-0 in their last 9 World Series games and 5-0 in their last 5 World Series home games. Take Boston. |
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10-23-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Boston Red Sox -118 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
7* World Series Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -118
The Key: Boston has the edge in Game 1 with southpaw Jon Lester on the bump. He is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 home starts this season. He provides problems for a St. Louis lineup that is batting just .246 and scoring only 3.9 runs per game off left-handed starters this season. The Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus AL southpaw starters. Adam Wainwright hasn't been quite as sharp on the road where he has a 3.31 ERA. Boston is batting .274 and scoring 5.3 runs per game off right-handed starters this season. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Wainwright's last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 World Series games and 4-0 in their last 4 World Series home games. The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games and 2-5 in their last 7 World Series road games. Take Boston. |
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10-19-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -116 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
6* ALCS Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -116
The Key: Boston won Game 2 of this series despite a poor performance from Buchholz. That performance cannot be sitting well with the Red Sox ace, and I expect him to bounce back strong this evening. Scherzer dealt a gem in Game 2, but it wasn't enough as Boston was able to rally late. I don't expect Scherzer to be quite as good this time around. He's fresh in Boston's mind and has a 6.20 career ERA against the Red Sox. The Sox are 15-3 in Buchholz's starts this season. They are 24-5 since the beginning of last season in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. Boston is 6-1 in Buchholz's last 7 starts versus the Tigers, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Fenway. The Tigers are 0-3 in Scherzer's last 3 starts at Fenway. The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 home games versus the Tigers. Bet Boston. |
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10-18-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
7* NLCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +1.5 -150
The Key: The Cardinals are showing value catching runs at this price. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 12-0 this season in home games following a day off. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 League Championship road games. They are also 0-4 in Kershaw's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. He was hit hard in two of these starts and got no run support in the other two. Wacha is 3-0 with an 0.42 ERA in his last three starts and outdueled Kershaw in Game 2. The Cardinals squandered a 3-1 series lead last fall against the Giants, and they do not want to see this thing reach a Game 7. I expect them to be very focused and hungry tonight. |
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10-17-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers -110 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
6* ALCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Tigers -110
The Key: Boston's Lester hasn't been nearly as good on the road, where he has a 4.21 ERA. The Red Sox are 3-12 in his last 15 road starts versus AL opponents, including 0-4 in his last 4. Lester doesn't have very good numbers against Detroit (4.24 ERA), and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2-3 innings in his lone start at Detroit this season. Detroit has hit lefties well all season and is 7-0 in its last 7 games versus a left-handed starter and 5-0 in its last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. Detroit's Sanchez has a 3.04 ERA at home, and he baffled the Red Sox in Game 1, throwing six no-hit innings. He's baffled the mighty AL East all together as the Tigers are now 6-0 in his last six starts versus AL East opponents. Sanchez has the kind of stuff that's really tough to hit when you're not familiar with it. The Red Sox have seen him once this while the Tigers have seen Lester three times this season and five times the last two seasons. Take Detroit. |
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10-16-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers -166 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -166
The Key: It's win or go home for the Dodgers, and I like them to stay alive behind a strong performance from Greinke. The Dodgers are 12-2 this season in his home starts. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts when working on regular rest (4 days). They are also 9-1 the last 10 times he's gotten the ball following a team loss and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Greinke hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in any of his last four starts while not allowing a single home run during this stretch. Kelly has given up 5 hits or more in each of his last three starts. The Cards lost Kelly's only road start against the Dodgers while Greinke's clubs are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus St. Louis. |
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10-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
7* ALCS Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -156
The Key: The Tigers are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Boston, and I expect their home dominance over the Red Sox to continue with Verlander on the mound. The big right-hander has been unbelievable down the stretch. He hasn't given up a single run in his last four starts. The Tigers are 3-0 in his last three home starts against the Red Sox, and he didn't allow a run in two of those. Detroit is also 15-1 all-time in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 runs or more per game. The Tigers have won by an average score of 6.6 to 2.4 in this situation. Boston's Lackey is struggling. He's given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts. He's struggled all season on the road where he is 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 16 starts. The Red Sox are 1-5 in his last six road starts. His clubs are also 0-4 in his last four starts against the Tigers. Take Detroit. |
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10-14-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers +1.5 -155
The Key: Each of the Dodgers' last six defeats have come by a single run, and three of St. Louis' last four wins have come by a single run. With this in mind, I believe the Dodgers +1.5 is the strongest play for Game 3. Wainwright has been sensational down the stretch. The Cardinals have won his last seven starts, but keep in mind that only one of those came on the road. Wainwright hasn't been quite as good on the road (3.36 ERA) this season, and the Cardinals have lost four of his last seven road starts. The Cards are also 1-4 in Wainwright's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-15 in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last five playoff road games, 6-13 in their last 19 League Championship road games and 3-7 in their last 10 road games versus a left-handed starter. LA Southpaw Ryu has been at his best at home where he has a 2.61 ERA. The Dodgers are 11-4 in his last 15 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven starts as an underdog, 5-0 in his last five starts versus the National League Central and 4-0 in his last four home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take LA on the run line. |
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10-13-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
7* ALCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -110
The Key: Scherzer will likely end up with the AL Cy Young, but there's a good chance he wouldn't have had Buchholz not missed a chunk of the season. Both pitchers have spectacular numbers on the season, but Buchholz has the better track record in the team matchup. He has a 3.76 ERA in eight starts against the Tigers. The Red Sox are 5-1 in his last six starts against them, including 3-0 in his last three at home. He has held the Tigers to three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts against them. Scherzer has a 7.02 ERA in eight starts versus the Red Sox. His clubs have lost five of those starts, and he's 0-2 in his last two at Fenway. He's given up five earned runs or more in half of his starts against Boston. The Red Sox fell in Game 1, but they are 5-0 the last five times Buchholz has received the ball following a team loss. They are also 4-0 in their last four when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game and 6-0 in Buchholz's last six starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Take Boston. |
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10-12-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -138 | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -138
The Key: Sanchez was the AL ERA leader, but I don't trust him as much as Lester here. The Tigers are 0-3 in his last three starts, a stretch where he has a 5.65 ERA. He gave up 6 runs in 4 1-3 innings in his ALDS start. Sanchez's clubs are just 2-11 in his starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 54-62% over the last two seasons. Lester easily won his ALDS start, while giving up just 2 runs in 7 2-3 innings. He's held opponents to 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Lester has been lights out at home where he has a 3.03 ERA. The Red Sox are 12-2 in his home starts this season, including 4-0 in his last 4. The Sox are also 3-0 in his last three starts against the Tigers. He gave up just 1 run in 7 innings while striking out 9 and walking nine in his lone home start against the Tigers this season. The Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 and 36-15 in their last 51 home games versus Detroit. Bet Boston. |
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10-11-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -122 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
6* NLCS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -122
The Key: I like the Dodgers in Game 1 with Greinke on the hill. The former AL Cy Young has been dialed in for months, and he has a strong track record against the Cardinals. He has allowed two earned runs or less in 13 consecutive starts. The Dodgers are 12-0 this season in Greinke's starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs or fewer per game. These teams have been held to 1.6 runs on average in these games. Greinke is 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Cardinals with the last two wins in St. Louis. He has given up a total of three runs in 19 1-3 innings in these starts. He is 8-2 in his last 10 starts versus the Cards, holding them to two earned runs or less in eight of these. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-10-13 | Detroit Tigers -106 v. Oakland A's | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Tigers -106
The Key: I like the experience of Verlander in this winner-take-all Game 5. The big right-hander is on top of his game. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts - all on the road - while striking out 33 and walking just five in 19 innings. Plus, he's had a ton of success against the A's. The Tigers are 6-2 in his last eight starts against them, and he's held them to one run or none in seven of these starts. The Tigers are 4-1 in his last five starts in Oakland, and he's given up just two runs in 37 innings in these starts. Verlander is riding a 22-inning postseason scoreless streak against the A's. Gray matched Verlander pitch-for-pitch in Game 2, but now the stakes are raised. Verlander has been there and done that on this stage and won't feel as much pressure as the rookie. Oakland is 1-11 in its last 12 tries when trying to close out a playoff series. It is also 0-5 in its last five Game 5s in the ALDS. The Tigers, on the hand, are 4-0 in their last four Game 5s. Take Detroit. |
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10-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
7* NLDS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -149
The Key: I love the experience of Adam Wainwright in this big spot. The Cardinals are 6-0 in his last six starts, twice beating the Pirates during this stretch with dominant performances. The Cards are 3-0 in Wainwright's home starts against Pittsburgh this season, and he's given up only one run on five hits in 14 innings while striking out 17 and walking two over his last two. Gerrit Cole has pitched well down the stretch and beat the Cardinals in Game 2, but that was his first start against them. Now he's fresh in their minds, and I expect things to go differently as he faces a lineup that is batting .274 and scoring 5.1 runs per game off right-handed starters a second time. The Cards are 24-9 in home games this season versus NL starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better. St. Louis is also 33-12 in home games in the second half of this season and 51-22 in home games the last three seasons after having lost two of their last three games. Besides Game 1, the St. Louis bats haven't made much noise. However, the numbers suggest a breakout offensive performance is coming. The Cardinals are 14-1 in home games the last two seasons following a five-game stretch with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse. They have won by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6 in this situation. Take St. Louis. |
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10-08-13 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -145 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
7* ALDS Game of the Year on Tigers -145
The Key: Oakland has an opportunity to close out the Tigers, but I don't like its chances. The A's are 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games with an opportunity to close out a series. Fister got lit up the last time he faced the A's, but he'll learn from that start and will be even more focused as a result. Prior to that start, he had held the A's to two earned runs or less in 11 of 12 starts, including five straight. He shut Oakland down in last year's ALDS and owns a 1.71 ERA over five career postseason starts. The Tigers are 10-4 in Fister's last 14 starts and 25-10 in his last 35 home starts. Oakland's Straily has struggled on the road where he has a 4.11 ERA. Take the Tigers. |
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10-07-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -108 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -108
The Key: The Cardinals have had Morton's number. The Pirates are 0-7 in Morton's last 7 starts versus the Cardinals, a stretch where he has a 6.82 ERA. Morton has also struggled in day games where he has a 4.81 ERA compared to his 2.62 mark at night. Beltran is 6 for 15 off Morton, Jon Jay is 8 for 16, Yadier Molina is 8 for 19 and Matt Holliday is 8 for 25. Sounds like runs to me. It's also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Morton's last five home starts versus a team with a winning record. Wacha was brilliant his last time out, nearly tossing a no-no against Washington. He also shut the Pirates down in his lone start against them last month, holding them scoreless on two hits in seven innings of a 9-2 victory. Take St. Louis. |
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10-06-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers -143 | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -143
The Key: The Braves have been inconsistent on the road where they have a losing record. They are also at a disadvantage on the mound as Teheran's road ERA (3.37) is over a run higher that Ryu's home ERA (2.32). The Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games overall as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games, 10-3 in their last 13 home games versus a team with a winning record and 10-4 in Ryu's last 14 home starts. Take LA. |
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10-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -113 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rays -113
The Key: I expect the Rays to bounce back strong behind David Price, who has thrived at Fenway. Price is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 20 career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-1 mark with a 1.88 ERA in 10 games in Boston. The Rays are 7-3 in Price's last 10 road starts versus Red Sox. They are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts in Game 2 of a series and 21-6 in his last 27 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. John Lackey has posted a 5.33 ERA over his last four starts and is 3-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts versus the Rays since joining the Red Sox in 2010. The Red Sox have been a terrible underdog investment. They are 27-57 in their last 84 games as an underdog, 9-25 in their last 34 games as a home underdog and 1-5 in Lackey's last 6 starts as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay. |
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10-04-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Atlanta Braves -102 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Braves -102
The Key: The Braves dropped Game 1, but I like their chances of evening the series. Atlanta is 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. In addition, it is 20-4 this season in home games following a defeat. The Braves are 66-28 in their last 94 home games overall so this team clearly doesn't lose many consecutive home contests. The Dodgers have had some problems with left-handed starters. They are averaging only 3.6 runs per game off them and are 3-9 in their last 12 games against them. Their struggles figure to continue against Minor. The Braves were 2-0 in his starts against the Dodgers this season. He posted a 2.25 ERA in those starts, limited the Dodgers to a .205 average and had 15 strikeouts over 12 innings. The Braves are 8-0 in Minor's last 8 starts versus National League West foes and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Greinke's clubs are 0-2 in his two career starts in Atlanta. He gave up 9 runs in 11 innings in those contests. Take Atlanta. |
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10-03-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -143 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -143
The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games versus Pittsburgh. They are also 4-0 in their last four home games versus the Pirates. They have way more postseason experience and a better starter going in Wainwright. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. The Cards are 2-0 in his home starts against the Pirates this season while Pittsburgh is 0-2 in Burnett's starts in St. Louis this season. Burnett was rocked in those two, giving up 10 earned runs in 7 1-3 innings. The Cards are 6-0 in their last six games overall, 6-0 in their last six games versus a team with a winning record, 6-0 in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take St. Louis. |
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10-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians +103 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Indians +103
The Key: The Indians are showing value in the underdog role at home where they are 49-24 in their last 73 games. They are 10-0 in their last 10 games overall, 9-0 in their last nine games when their opponent allows two runs or less in its previous game, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter. The Indians have seen Cobb once this season and twice last season so they have some familiarity with his stuff. The Rays, on the other hand, have never seen Salazar. That will be to his advantage. Cobb typically hasn't been as sharp when breaking his four-day between starts routine. In fact, the Rays are 0-4 in his last four starts on five days' rest. The Rays are also 0-7 in their last seven playoff games as a favorite and 0-6 in their last six playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland is 22-8 in its last 30 home games versus the Rays. Take the Tribe. |
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -126 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -126
The Key: Pittsburgh has all the momentum on its side following a three-game sweep of the Reds. Cincy is 0-5 in its last five games with those losses coming at home, and now it ventures out on the road where it has been far less consistent. The Cincy offense is really struggling. It has been held to three runs or fewer in six straight games. The Pirates have scored four runs or more in seven of their last 10 games. I can't see the Reds getting much of anything of Liriano, who's 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts. The Pirates are 7-1 in his last 8 home starts. Cueto has fared well in a pair of starts since returning from the DL, but those came against the lowly Mets and Astros. He has a 3.90 ERA on the road this season. We'll take the hotter team at home tonight. |
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09-30-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -116 v. Texas Rangers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rays -116
The Key: Price doesn't have the best track record against Texas. Still, he has held the Rangers to three runs or less in five of his last six starts against them, and I like his experience in this spot. I think nerves will come into play a lot more for Texas rookie Martin Perez. The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record while the Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record. The Rays are also 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rays are 33-14 in Price's last 47 starts as a road favorite and 20-6 in his last 26 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 1-6 in Perez's last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-29-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -175 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -175
The Key: The Rays need this game and are in great hands with Matt Moore set to get the ball. The Rays are 22-6 in Moore's last 28 starts, 14-2 in his last 16 road starts, 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a losing record and 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Blue Jays. Moore have averaged 3.5 walks per game in six career starts versus Toronto but hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of those games. In fact, pitchers that are a little bit wild have fared well against a Toronto club that isn't very disciplined at the plate. The Blue Jays are 0-8 this season versus starting pitchers who average 2.75 walks or more per start. They have lost these games by 2.4 runs on average. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-27-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -121 | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Reds -121
The Key: I'll go against the Pirates with Burnett on the mound. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA in eight career starts in Cincinnati, and he has a 6.68 ERA in his last six outings on the road. The Pirates are 2-7 in Burnett's last 9 road starts, 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in his last 5 starts in series openers. Bailey has been dialed in. The Reds are 8-2 in his last 10 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball following a team loss. Bailey has a 2.69 ERA in 15 starts versus Pittsburgh with the Reds winning 10 of those. The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 meetings in Cincinnati. Take the Reds. |
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09-26-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. New York Mets -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Mets -150
The Key: The Mets have the edge on the mound with Gee, who is 12-10 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 starts. He has a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts at home. The Mets are 4-0 in Gee's last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days), 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite. Milwaukee's Hellweg is 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.220 WHIP in 5 starts. His ERA is 9.39 in a pair of road starts. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Brewers are 1-5 in Hellweg's last 6 starts, including 0-2 in his last 2. Take New York. |
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09-25-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres -111 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Padres -111
The Key: Ian Kennedy was shelled at Arizona in his first start against his former team, but I fully expect him to have his revenge here. Kennedy has been outstanding in 11 career starts at Petco Park, going 6-2 with a 2.39 ERA. He's 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in five games there as a member of the Padres. San Diego is 3-0 in his last three home starts, during which he's allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings. September has been the month to back Kennedy as his clubs are 13-1 in his September starts since 2011. It is also worth noting that San Diego is 7-0 in home games this season versus starting pitchers like Randall Delgado who give up 1.0 home run or more per start. The Padres are 5-1 in their last six home games versus the Diamondbacks. Take San Diego. |
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09-24-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Atlanta Braves -138 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Braves -138
The Key: With Atlanta's lead for home-field advantage throughout the NL Playoffs down to half a game, it will be all business when it takes the field tonight. The Braves have been a terrific investment at home where they are 62-25 in their last 87 home games. They are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Brewers. Thornburg has been good for Milwaukee, but I like the proven Garcia in this spot. He has allowed just 2 runs in 2 starts this month and has a 1.31 ERA in five games since being traded to the Braves. Take Atlanta. |
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09-23-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres -107 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Padres -107
The Key: The Padres are showing value at home at such an affordable price. They are 6-0 in their last 6 series openers, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus the Diamondbacks. San Diego's Stults has been outstanding at home where he has a 3.17 ERA. Arizona's McCarthy has struggled on the road where he has a 5.59 ERA. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in McCarthy's last 10 starts and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts. The Padres are 6-2 in Stults' last 8 starts as a home favorite. Take San Diego. |
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09-22-13 | Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals -128 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Royals -128
The Key: The Rangers are 4-12 in their last 16 games. They won yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. I expect a gem from James Shields, who is going for his 100th career win. Shields is 5-1 with a 1.36 ERA in his last seven regular-season outings against the Rangers. The Royals are 7-0 in Shields' last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Kansas City. |
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09-21-13 | San Francisco Giants v. New York Yankees -153 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Yankees -153
The Key: It hasn't been wise to bet against Ivan Nova in interleague play. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 10 interleague starts - 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two this year. The Yankees are 9-1 all-time in his interleague starts, including 5-0 in his last 5. They are also are 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball on 5 days' rest and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague road games. Take New York. |
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09-20-13 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Nationals -1.5 -115
The Key: The Nationals are 7-0 at home this season against the Marlins, winning these by 3.1 runs on average. They are 3-0 in Zimmermann's last 3 starts, winning these by 4.3 runs on average. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Marlins, winning these by 4.8 runs on average. The Marlins are 0-5 in Turner's last 5 starts with 3 of these losses coming by 2 runs. Take Washington on the run line. |
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09-19-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 104 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -1.5 +104
The Key: The A's are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss, winning these games by an average of 4.1 runs. Look for the A's to respond with a big win following last night's defeat. Straily has been dealing. The A's are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, winning these by an average of 3.5 runs. The Twins are 3-12 in Correia's last 15 starts. Each of their last 6 losses with him on the mound have come by at least 3 runs. Oakland recorded wins of 18-3 and 8-2 in its last two meetings with Minnesota, which took place last week. Take Oakland on the run line. |
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09-18-13 | San Diego Padres v. Pittsburgh Pirates -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -145
The Key: With losses in the first two games of this series, the Pirates are looking up at St. Louis in the NL Central. That's all the motivation they'll need tonight. Pittsburgh has been a terrific investment all season, especially at home. In fact, it is 12-0 in home games this season after playing 6 or more consecutive home games. In other words, when the Pittsburgh players have been able to sleep in their own beds for an extended period and spend plenty of time with their families, they have been one tough cookie. It is also worth noting that the Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-1 in Morton's last 8 starts versus a team with a losing record. Morton is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 2 starts versus San Diego. The Padres are 1-5 in Ross' last 6 starts and his clubs are 1-10 in his starts as an underdog of +100 to +150 since the beginning of last season. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-17-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -120
The Key: I'll take the Tigers on the run line against the struggling Mariners. Seattle is 1-7 in its last 8 games with 6 of these losses coming by 2 runs or more. In addition, the M's are 0-6 in Brandon Maurer's last 6 starts, losing these by an average of 4.2 runs. They are 0-4 all-time in his road starts, losing these by 5.0 runs on average. The Tigers are 3-0 in Anibal Sanchez's last 3 starts, winning these by an average of 6.7 runs. They are 9-1 in his last 10 starts with 8 of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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09-15-13 | Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers -113 | 5-1 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rangers -113
The Key: The A's haven't swept the Rangers in Arlington in four years, and I don't see them doing it here. Texas is in desperate need of a win as it's not only batting Oakland for a division title but is battling several other AL clubs for wild card spots. The Rangers are 18-8 in their last 26 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. They are also 14-5 all-time after 5 or more consecutive losses under manager Washington. Parker has been great for the A's, but they have a losing record in his road starts. Plus, Oakland is hitting just .248 against southpaw starters. Look for it struggled to continue against lefties this afternoon. The Rangers are 7-0 this season in Perez's starts against division opponents, winning these games by an average score of 7.1 to 2.3 while he's posted a 1.88 ERA. Texas is also 8-0 in his starts this season versus AL clubs averaging 4.7 runs per game of less. Take Texas. |
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09-14-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -166 | 19-3 | Loss | -166 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -166
The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Nolasco, who is 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA in 12 starts since being acquired from Miami on July 6. He is 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last four outings and hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 3 home starts spanning 22 2-3 innings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. You better find a way to manufacture some runs if you're going to beat Nolasco with the way he's going, and I don't see San Francisco being able to. The Giants don't run well, and that doesn't bode well for them as LA is 7-0 in Nolasco's starts in the second half of this season versus teams that average 0.5 or less steals per game. It has won these by an average score of 6.6 to 2.1. Lincecum has good career numbers against the Dodgers but has lost 4 of his last 6 starts at Dodger Stadium. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 road starts, 2-9 in his last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-5 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Nolasco's clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus San Francisco. Take LA. |
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09-13-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -170 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -170
The Key: The Royals have won all five matchups against Verlander this season, but it won't continue. He is 15-5 with a 2.80 ERA in 28 starts against Kansas City and probably should have added to this win total a few more times this season. He's limited the Royals to 2 earned runs or less in 3 of 5 starts this season. The Tigers are 60-23 in Verlander's last 83 home starts and 41-14 in his last 55 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. I love his chances of outdueling Chen, who is 6-8 with a 5.24 ERA in 18 starts versus Detroit. The Royals are 0-5 in Chen's last 5 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200, 0-5 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-8 in his last 8 Friday starts. The Royals are just 3-11 in their last 14 meetings in Detroit. Take the Tigers. |
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09-12-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -170 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -170
The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Greinke. His clubs are 13-0 in his home starts against losing teams dating back to the start of last season. Additionally, his clubs are 14-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season versus losing teams since the start of the 2011 season. San Francisco has had a ton of problems generating offense, as evidenced by its 3.8 runs per game average. Its inability to hit the long ball has been a big issue. The Giants average just 0.61 homers per game. This stat is extremely significant because the Dodgers are 9-0 this season in Greinke's starts versus teams that average 0.9 HRs or less per game. Also, the Dodgers are 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus division opponents. The Giants have dropped 9 of Cain's last 12 starts. They've also lost 4 of his last 5 starts versus the Dodgers. Take LA. |
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09-11-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Texas Rangers -136 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
7* MLB Afternoon Delight Game of the Year on Rangers -136
The Key: The Pirates have won the first two games of this series, but they are on a 0-9 slide in the third game of a series. Pittsburgh's Burnett has struggled on the road where he has a 4.30 ERA. The Pirates are 0-8 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Burnett's clubs are also 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Texas hasn't lost at home since acquiring Garza, going 5-0. Garza's clubs are also a perfect 5-0 in his interleague starts this season. Take Texas. |
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09-10-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Texas Rangers -126 | 5-4 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Rangers -126
The Key: Texas has the edge as Liriano and Perez go toe-to-toe because it has the best record in the majors against left-handed starters. The Rangers are 28-17 against southpaw starters on the season, including 10-3 in their last 13 games against them. They are hitting .278 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off lefty starters while the Pirates are batting .262 and scoring 4.3 runs per game against them. Liriano has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and has a 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts as a result. He's been up and down all season on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA. Texas' Perez has been lights out at home where he has a 2.20 ERA. The Rangers are 7-0 in his last 7 starts. Justin Morneau is the only Pittsburgh hitter that has faced Perez, which means Pittsburgh won't be familiar with his stuff at all. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-1 in their last 7 home games versus Pittsburgh. Take Texas. |
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09-10-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Toronto Blue Jays -135 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -135
The Key: The Blue Jays have the edge on the mound with Buehrle, who has a 2.72 home ERA this season. The Jays are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite. Toronto is also 7-0 this season in Buehrle's starts versus AL West opponents, winning these by an average score of 4.9 to 1.9. LA's Williams has a 4.61 road ERA, and the Angels are 0-7 in his starts in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus AL clubs with an on-base percentage .320 or worse. They have lost these contests by an average score of 5.9 to 2.4. This trend really speaks to how much Williams has struggled. Take Toronto. |
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09-09-13 | Atlanta Braves -160 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -160
The Key: The Braves should end their 4-game slide tonight against a Miami club they have owned. They have won 39 of the last 54 meetings overall and 20 of the last 26 in Miami. The Braves have the edge on the mound with Medlen, who has a 2.58 ERA in 7 career starts against the Marlins. Atlanta is an unbeaten 7-0 in those starts. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 15-0 all-time in Medlen's starts in the second half of the season versus clubs that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. It has won these games by an average score of 6.4 to 2.5. The Marlins are 0-2 in Alvarez's last two starts versus the Braves. He's allowed 9 runs in 12 innings in these two starts. Take Atlanta. |
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09-08-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -121 v. Cincinnati Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Dodgers -121
The Key: Motivated by defeats in the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind a gem from their ace. Kershaw has a 1.89 ERA on the season, and I expect him to be very focused here after getting hit hard at Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers still won that game and are 3-0 in his last 3 road starts. Bailey has pitched well of late for Cincinnati, but his 3.42 ERA pales in comparison with Kershaw's ERA. Plus, Bailey has a 4.23 ERA in 7 starts against the Dodgers and is 0-2 in his last 2. Kershaw, on the other hand, has a 2.81 ERA in 7 starts versus the Reds, and the Dodgers are 4-0 all-time in his road starts versus Cincinnati. The Dodgers are also 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball in the third game of a series. Take LA. |
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09-07-13 | Detroit Tigers -125 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Tigers -125
The Key: The Tigers are worth every penny at this price with Verlander on the hill. The big right-hander is 15-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 27 starts versus Kansas City. He has yet to record a win against the Royals this season despite a 2.60 ERA. However, the odds are in our favor as he's notched at least one win over Kansas City each of the last seven years. He'll be very focused here, and I like his chances of getting some run support with the way the Tigers swung the sticks last night. Duffy has a 4.08 ERA in 5 starts against the Tigers and is 0-3 in 3 home starts against them. The Royals are 1-8 in Duffy's last 9 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 Saturday games while the Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. The Tigers are also 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Detroit. |
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09-06-13 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins -133 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -133
The Key: The Marlins have the edge on the mound with Fernandez, who has a 1.29 ERA at home this season. Washington's Haren has a 4.29 ERA on the road. Haren's clubs are 0-6 since the beginning of last season in his starts against teams with a win percentage of 38% or lower. Washington is 0-9 in his starts this season against poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs or less per game. The Nationals are 0-7 in Haren's starts this season versus NL teams scoring 3.8 runs or less per game. They are also 0-7 in his road starts this season when the money line is +125 to -125. The Nationals are 0-6 in Haren's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Marlins are 9-0 in Fernandez's last 9 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. Additionally, the Fish are 7-0 this season in his home starts after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in his last 2 outings. Haren is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus the Marlins. He's also 0-4 on the money line in 4 career starts in Miami. Take the Marlins. |
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09-05-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Baltimore Orioles -147 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -147
The Key: The White Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games, and I expect their struggles to continue against a motivated Baltimore club that is fighting for the final wild card spot. One thing you don't want to do is go against the Orioles at home with Gonzalez on the hill. That's because they are 12-2 in his last 14 home starts. The White Sox are 2-8 in Quintana's last 10 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 12-41 in their last 53 road games versus winning teams. The Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Baltimore. |
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09-04-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies -119 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
7* NL West Game of the Year on Rockies -119
The Key: With a big lead in the division, the Dodgers are expected to give some of their big guns a breather Wednesday. Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig are expected to sit this one out, and more could be added to the list. In addition, L.A. is giving Edinson Volquez the ball. That bodes extremely well for us as his clubs are 0-6 in his last 6 starts versus the Rockies, a stretch where he's posted a 12.46 ERA. The Dodgers would have a tough enough time winning against Jorge De La Rosa, let alone without some of their key bats. The Rockies are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts. They are 6-0 in his home starts this season when the money line is +125 to -125. They are 8-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season against winning clubs. They are 11-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season against division opponents. Colorado lost yesterday, but it is a perfect 12-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss. Take Colorado. |
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09-03-13 | Washington Nationals -154 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -154
The Key: The Nationals have the advantage on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals are 41-20 in his last 61 starts and 21-8 in his last 29 road starts. And, they have never lost with Gonzalez on the mound as a road favorite of -125 or more. They are a perfect 10-0 in this situation, winning by an average of 3.3 runs. He has been dominant against the Phillies. The Nats are 5-1 in his 6 starts against them while he has posted a 2.31 ERA. They are 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Phillies with all 3 coming in Philadelphia. Take Washington. |
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09-02-13 | San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres -143 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Padres -143
The Key: Kennedy hasn't been as good as expected this season. However, he has quietly been plenty good lately, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his last 8 starts. Now, is the time to back Kennedy. He's been at his best in September the past couple seasons. In fact, his clubs are 10-0 in his starts the last two Septembers. Zito has been a dead fade. The Giants are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 12.27 ERA. He's been awful on the road where he has a 9.65 ERA. The Giants are 0-10 this season in his starts as a road underdog of +100 or higher. The Giants are also 0-5 in his last 5 series-opening starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus losing teams and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus division opponents. The Giants are 0-3 in Zito's last 3 starts versus the Padres. Take San Diego. |
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09-01-13 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -104
The Key: Greinke's clubs are 12-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the beginning of last season, winning these starts by an average score of 6.6 to 3.3. His teams are also 13-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season versus losing teams since 2011, winning these by an average score of 4.9 to 2.6. His clubs are 15-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since the start of the 2011 season, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.5. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season in his starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game, winning these by an average score of 3.8 to 1.6. LA is also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus clubs that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by an average score of 4.3 to 2.0. Take the Dodgers on the run line. |
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08-31-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Milwaukee Brewers -138 | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers -138
The Key: The Halos can't be trusted with Jerome Williams on the mound. They are 0-8 in his last 8 starts and have lost these by over 3 runs on average. The Angels are 0-4 in Williams' last 4 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 interleague starts. He has a 12.91 in a pair of interleague starts this season. We successfully played against the Brewers Friday, but they are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are 17-8 in Estrada's last 25 starts, 9-4 in his last 13 home starts and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts versus a team with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. |
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08-30-13 | Los Angeles Angels -122 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -122
The Key: The Halos are 5-1 on their current road trip, and I expect them to keep rolling behind a gem from ace Jered Weaver. The Angels are 44-12 in his last 56 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 interleague starts. The Brewers are just 1-5 in Peralta's last 6 starts. Milwaukee's right-hander has a 4.51 ERA on the season. That's over a run higher than the 3.46 ERA Weaver is carrying. Peralta's ERA is significant because the Halos are 9-1 all-time under Scioscia in road games versus an NL starter whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70. Take LA. |
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08-29-13 | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers +1.5 -148
The Key: Gallardo is in terrific form. The Brewers are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Pittsburgh's Cole hasn't been nearly as sharp of late, as evidenced by the 4.24 ERA he's posted over his last 3 starts. Gallardo has owned the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-3 all-time in his starts against Pittsburgh, and he has posted a 2.58 ERA in these games. One of those losses came by a single run so the Brewers have covered today's run line in 15 of Gallardo's 17 starts against the Bucs. Take Milwaukee on the run line. |
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08-28-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -149 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -149 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Cardinals -149
The Key: With losses in the first two games of this series, the Reds are now 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning record. They are not in good position to end this skid with Bailey getting the ball. The Reds are 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. Plus, he's had no luck against the Cards. The Reds are 0-4 in Bailey's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. They are also 0-7 all-time in his road starts versus St. Louis. The Cardinals, who are 5-0 in their last 5 game 3s of a series, are 3-0 in Wainwright's last 3 starts. He's been lights out in his last two, giving up just 2 runs in 16 innings while striking out 20 and walking 1. Take St. Louis. |
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08-27-13 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 +120
The Key: Verlander isn't having the type of season we've come to expect from him, but I really like him in this spot against a club he's owned. He's 6-0 in his last six starts versus Oakland and has given up one earned run or none in each. These wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs with each coming by at least two runs. It is also worth noting that Detroit is a perfect 11-0 in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a winning percentage of 54-62% since 2011. The Tigers have won these games by 2.4 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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08-26-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -105
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back back defeats, I fully expect the Dodgers to take care of business at home against a Chicago club they have owned. Keep in mind the Dodgers haven't lost three consecutive games since June 8-10. LA is 7-0 in its last 7 versus the Cubs, winning these by 2.6 runs on average. LA is in fantastic hands with Greinke getting the ball. It is 5-0 in his last 5 starts, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. It is also 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus teams that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by 2.0 runs on average. In addition, Greinke's clubs are 11-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts versus teams that have a losing record, winning these by 3.2 runs on average. His clubs are 15-0 since the start of the 2011 season in his home starts as a favorite of -175 to -250, winning these by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, Greinke is 3-0 all-time in 3 home starts versus the Cubs with his teams winning these by 3.7 runs on average. Take LA on the run line. |
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08-25-13 | Los Angeles Angels -127 v. Seattle Mariners | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Late Afternoon *MOUND MISMATCH* on Angels -127
The Key: The Angels are a good buy at this price considering the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, whose ERA is nearly two runs lower than Harang's. In addition, Weaver has a 3.32 career ERA against the Mariners while Harang has a 6.83 lifetime ERA against the Halos. The Angels are an impressive 43-12 in Weaver's last 55 starts as a favorite. Harang's clubs are 0-4 in his last 4 starts against the Angels. Seattle has lost all 3 of his starts against the Halos this season by a combined score of 29-6. Take the Angels. |
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08-25-13 | Toronto Blue Jays -138 v. Houston Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -138
The Key: Houston hasn't won more than two consecutive games in over two months so the odds are definitely against it pulling off the sweep here. Houston is batting just .233 and scoring only 3.5 runs per game off of lefty starters this season while Toronto is batting .271 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off southpaw starters. With this in mind, the Jays appear to have a sizable advantage on the mound with Buehrle. They are 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus AL West clubs. Buehrle's clubs are 3-0 all-time in his starts against the Astros, and he's posted a 1.88 ERA in these starts. He threw a complete-game, 2-hit shutout versus the Astros last month. The Astros are 0-3 in Keuchel's last three home starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts coming on 7 or more days' rest. Take Toronto. |
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08-24-13 | Washington Nationals -109 v. Kansas City Royals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -109
The Key: I'll gladly get behind Washington at this price given the advantage it has on the mound with Zimmermann. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 while Kansas City is 0-6 in its last 6, and they should get a strong performance from Zimm, who is 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA. The Nationals are 7-0 in his last 7 starts in the second game of a series and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the American League Central. The Royals, who are 0-6 in their last 6 home games, don't figure to get a gem from Davis, who's 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA. The Royals are 0-4 in Davis' last 4 starts as a home underdog. Take Washington. |
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08-24-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 108 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +108
The Key: The Reds are showing value on the run line give the edges they hold on the mound and at the plate. The Reds lost yesterday, and that's in our best interest. Consider that they are 14-1 since the beginning of last season in home games following an upset loss at home to a division rival. They are also 14-1 since the start of last season in home games when out for revenge for an upset loss at home in a game where they were listed at -150 or higher. In addition, Cincy is 19-2 this season in home games following a defeat. It is also 9-1 this season when Arroyo gets the ball following a loss. The Reds have won each of Arroyo's last 3 starts by 2 runs or more while the Brewers have dropped Peralta's last 2 by 2 runs or more. The Reds have won both of Arroyo's starts against the Brewers this season while the Brewers have lost each of Peralta's 3 career starts in Cincinnati. Take Cincy on the run line. |
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08-23-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Francisco Giants -143 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
7* National League Game of the Month on Giants -143
The Key: The Giants are this large of a favorite for a reason, and that reason is the significant advantage they have on the mound with Bumgarner. He has a 2.87 ERA on the season and a 2.40 ERA at home. Pittsburgh's Morton has a road ERA that's over a run higher than Bumgarner's home number. The Giants are 25-11 in Bumgarner's last 36 starts as a home favorite. The Pirates are 13-30 in Morton's last 43 road starts, 19-42 in his last 61 starts as an underdog, 5-15 in his last 20 road starts versus a team with a losing record and 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus the Giants. Bumgarner has a 0.69 ERA against the Bucs, and they haven't seen him since 2011. They'll be in for a rude awakening. San Francisco just saw Morton in June in a game it won 10-0. Take the Giants. |
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08-22-13 | Atlanta Braves v. St. Louis Cardinals -132 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -132
The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Kelly. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall, and he's allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 3 of these. The Cards are also 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. The Braves are 0-3 in Maholm's last 3 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 10.13 ERA. He has an ERA of 6.03 on the road this season. Maholm's clubs are 0-11 in his road starts since the beginning of last season when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. They have lost these starts by an average score of 5.5 to 2.5. In addition, Maholm's clubs have lost 4 of his last 5 starts against the Cardinals and are 0-2 in St. Louis during this stretch. He allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings in the 2 losses in St. Louis. Take St. Louis. |
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08-21-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -163 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -163 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -163
The Key: Look for the Royals to bounce back this evening against a Chicago club that is 11-30 in its last 41 road games, 13-39 in its last 52 road games versus a team with a winning record and 5-18 in its last 23 in the second game of a series. The Royals are 12-3 in their last 15 in the second game of a series, and they are in good hands with Guthrie. They Royals are 25-11 in his last 36 starts, 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and 10-2 in his last 12 starts in the second game of a series. The Royals are also 6-1 in Guthrie's last seven starts versus the White Sox. Take Kansas City. |
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08-21-13 | Cleveland Indians -143 v. Los Angeles Angels | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Indians -143
The Key: It's been a terribly disappointing season for the Angels, who will have a tough time bouncing back from yesterday's 14-inning punch in the gut. LA's Williams is having a terrible campaign. The Angels are 0-7 in his last seven starts, and he's given up at least four runs in nine of his last 12 outings. The Angels are also 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter, 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four in the third game of a series. Justin Masterson isn't the righty they want to see. The Indians are 3-0 in his last three starts against the Angels, and he has a 1.94 ERA in eight career starts against them. It is also worth noting that the Tribe is 4-0 in its last four road games versus a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland. |
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08-20-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -144 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144
The Key: The Dodgers will go after this game with all they've got because they have to win it to give themselves a chance at a sixth straight series win. They have at least split each of their last 17 series' so they must win at least two in Miami to keep their unbeaten series streak alive. You can bet they'll leave it all on the field to make sure the NL-worst Marlins don't rain on their parade. The Dodgers are 42-10 in their last 52 overall and 24-5 in their last 29 on the road. They are 6-0 in Capuano's last 6 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 1-5 in Turner's last 6 starts and 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus an opponent that allowed 5 runs or more in its previous game. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-19-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels -126 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -126
The Key: Weaver was absolutely rocked at New York in his most recent start. That actually bodes well for us because he will be that much more focused and determined tonight. It hasn't been wise to go against the Angels' ace at home. In fact, LA is 20-4 in his home starts since the beginning of last season. In addition, LA is 39-14 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 or less. Weaver just pitched a gem in a 5-2 win at Cleveland Aug. 9, and he's 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Indians. The Angels have won 11 of these. Take Los Angeles. |
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08-18-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Rangers -1.5 -129
The Key: I expect Texas to win convincingly this afternoon as it faces Seattle scheduled starter Ramirez, who has a hefty 7.06 ERA. The Rangers are in much better hands with Yu Darvish, who has a 2.64 ERA. He leads the majors with 207 strikeouts and opponents are batting just .186 against him. Darvish is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.64 ERA. He's also 3-0 all-time in three home starts versus the Mariners. The Rangers won these three by six, six and seven runs, respectively. Take Texas on the run line. |
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