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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -4 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 PUNISHER on Spurs -4 Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1. San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs. It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests. Each of these wins came by at least 6 points. Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points. Pound the Spurs. |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Pacers +7.5 Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued on the road because of what happened in the first 2 games of this series in Miami. They lost them both by 12 points, but they weren't facing elimination in either. Teams staring elimination in the face tend to play with desperation. We saw that from Indiana last game, and we saw it in their first round series against Atlanta. After losing highly competitive series' to the Heat the past 2 seasons, Indiana made a concerted effort to get home court so that it would have the edge in another playoff series. It knows its gets a Game 7 at home so it will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of getting an opportunity to play a Game 7 in its own building. Indiana cannot stomach losing in the playoffs to the Heat 3 consecutive seasons so I'm expecting an outstanding effort. Additionally, the Pacers have started to figure out the Heat. After allowing Miami to shoot above 50% in the first 3 games, they have held the Heat to 46.4% and 45.3% in the last two. Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of the last 9 meetings and 12 of the last 19. Pound the Pacers. |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -4.5 | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Major GM5 *SUREFIRE* on Spurs -4.5 Bottom Line: Look for the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are on a 7-0 run in these playoffs. Each of these 7 wins came by 6 points or more with the last 6 by no less than 17 points. The home team is a dominant 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5. Each of these 5 victories came by at least 9 points. |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFURE* on Pacers +3 Bottom Line: Look for Indiana to rise to the occasion and extend this series. Home court has been too meaningful in this matchup to ignore. The home team is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge against an opponent off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite has resulted in a 69-37 ATS record since 1996. |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +6.5 Bottom Line: Indiana is a team of response, going 31-17 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road loss. Recently, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following any loss. They have really responded well following embarrassing double-digit defeats. In fact, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 10 points or more and have won these contests by 6.0 points on average. Prior to Game 3, these teams had traded wins in 13 consecutive games which shows how competitive this series has been. We'll pound the Pacers catching points in this double-revenge spot. |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -2 Bottom Line: The Spurs have looked unstoppable thus far in the series, but Kevin Durant and company won't go down without a fight. With the home crowd behind them, the Thunder will come storming back in Game 3. OKC is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Spurs, winning these by 11.1 points on average. The Spurs have been unconscious at home lately, but the road hasn't treated them nearly as well. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Pound the Thunder. |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | 87-99 | Loss | -104 | 59 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pacers +7 Bottom Line: The Pacers aren't getting the respect they deserve with this number, even if Paul George can't go. They are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games, winning them by an average of 9.6 points. They are also 7-0 in their last 7 games following a defeat, winning these contests by 7.1 points on average. Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 5 of its last 6 games versus Miami. Grab the points. |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 77-112 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6 Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments. OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight. I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass. Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13. The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Pound OKC. |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5 Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover. San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season. It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points. The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end. Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim. Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1. The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Pound the Spurs. |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5 Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds. However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness. The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series. They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons. I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup. The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points. Pound the Pacers. |
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05-15-14 | Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5 Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5. The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances. The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points. The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue. Pound the Pacers. |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 +5.5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers +5.5 Bottom Line: The Clippers carry a lot of momentum into Game 5 after rallying back from a 22-point deficit in Game 4 to even the series. Despite winning the game, the Clippers failed to cover the spread, and the road team is now 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with 4 of the wins coming outright. The Clippers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road matchups with the Thunder and 12-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. In a game involving teams with winning percentages of 60-75%, playing against teams like OKC that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up has resulted in a 77-40 ATS record the last 18 seasons. Grab the points in a game that should go right down to the wire. |
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05-12-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 +4 | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Playoffs *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Blazers +4 Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that are leading in a playoffs series has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record since 1996, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or greater and are playing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 75%). This system tightens up to 5-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Spurs are still 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Portland, and they are laying too many points here against a team that will be playing desperate. |
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05-11-14 | INDIANA GM4 v. WASHINGTON GM4 -4.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5 Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg. This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel. It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points. The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. Pound the Wizards. |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -4.5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5 Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence. The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games. The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points. Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot. Pound LA. |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5 | 118-103 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Blazers +1.5 Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing home teams that are playing with triple revenge has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Blazers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games versus the Spurs, and they are an impressive 51-31 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less the last 18 seasons. |
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05-10-14 | MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +1.5 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5 Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight. I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3. The Nets are 18-3 at home since February. Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points. They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points. Pound Brooklyn. |
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05-09-14 | Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 85-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5 Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the superior defensive team. The Pacers have held the opposition to 41.7% shooting or worse in 6 of their last 8 games. Washington has held its opponents below the 41.7% mark just 2 times in its last 10 games. Indiana gets in trouble when it gets too reliant on the 3-point shot. It has diagnosed itself. It only attempted 12 3's in Game 2 and made an extra-effort to go inside. It paid off, and I expect the Pacers to stick with the same game plan. The underdog has now covered each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 7, and I expect this trend to continue. Pound the Pacers. |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Blazers +7 Bottom Line: Road teams that score an average of 103 points per game or more on the season are 39-12 ATS the last 18 seasons if they trailed by 20 points or more at halftime of their last game. This system tightens up to 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Blazers have still won 4 of the last 7 meetings. And, they have lost by more than 7 points just twice in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs. Pound Portland. |
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05-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Nets +8 Bottom Line: The Nets ran into a buzz saw in Game 1 as they were still emotionally and physically drained from their opening series. This veteran Nets squad is playoff-tested, and it will be motivated by the poor performance in Game 1, and it won't be lacking any confidence having won each of the 4 regular season battles. Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss or more than 10 points. |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Thunder -5.5 Bottom Line: The Thunder have been an awesome investment when out for revenge for an upset defeat under coach Brooks, going 54-33 ATS in this spot. In this spot at home the last 2 seasons, they are 17-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.9 points. Teams headed up by coach Rivers are a dismal 36-59 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 44-26 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more. Pound OKC. |
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05-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 | 82-86 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -4.5 Bottom Line: Even though the Pacers lost Game 1 of this series, I'm not going to jump ship when they're on their home floor. The home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are 12-1 in the last 13 home meetings. In terms of the spread, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home meetings. The Pacers were outrebounded 65-46, and I don't see that happening again. They had won the rebounding battle in each of the previous 7 matchups. Bet the Pacers. |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7 Bottom Line: Despite losing each of the 4 regular-season meetings with Brooklyn, Miami is laying quite a few points. That's because Miami will be extremely fresh following a week off and highly focused as it looks to make a statement to Brooklyn that the playoffs are a different animal. This line is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent are 54-27 ATS the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that is off an upset win over a division foe. Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 2 consecutive wins against a division foe are 39-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. After a grueling 7-game series, the Nets will run out of gas in the second half. Pound Miami. |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers -4 Bottom Line: Home court has been huge when these teams get together. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 8 points. Home court has especially been huge for the Pacers when facing the Wizards. Indiana is 12-0 in its last 12 at home versus Washington with all 12 wins coming by at least 4 points. Pound the Pacers. |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -6 Bottom Line: Look for San Antonio to take care of business at home in Game 7. The Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Mavs with the wins coming by an average of 14.3 points. The Spurs are 23-12 ATS off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in this spot. They are also 64-46 ATS in home playoff games under coach Popovich, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points. Pound the Spurs. |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 +8 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8 Bottom Line: I believe odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Memphis team that held Oklahoma City to 39.8% shooting or worse in Games 2-5. Each of those 4 games went to OT, and I'm expecting another tight game with a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line. Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 8 points in 12 of its last 16 versus the Thunder. The Grizz are 14-6 ATS following a loss, 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at OKC. The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 in their last 4 in this series. Pound Memphis. |
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05-02-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -4.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -4.5 Bottom Line: At home, where they have won 17 of their last 20 (17 wins came by 10.9 points on average), I expect the Nets to extend this series. The Nets are an impressive 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a winning record. Additionally, they have thrived in highly motivated spots such as this one. When at home and out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent, they are 9-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory of 8.0 points. This is the type of game where having experienced winners like Paul Piece and Kevin Garnett really pays off. Bet the Nets. |
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05-01-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | Top | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +1.5 Bottom Line: Home court has been too big to ignore when these teams get together. The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with the 10 wins coming by an average of 17 points. Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 home games versus the Clippers, including 6-1 in its last 7. Combine the 10-2 series home trend and the 16-3 Warriors home trend, and we have a convincing 26-5 trend in our favor. Additionally, Golden State is 30-15 ATS under coach Mark Jackson after a loss of 10 points or more, including 8-1 ATS in this spot this season with an average winning margin of 15.9 points. Pound the Warriors. |
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05-01-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major GM6 *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -2.5 Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS the last 3 seasons after a close loss of 3 points or less, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.9 points. Road favorites that are off a home loss and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 122-75 ATS since 1996. I expect the Thunder to dig down deep to force a Game 7. |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -5 | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Rockets -5 Bottom Line: Despite losing the 1st 2 games of the series at home, Houston is still 19-5 in its last 24 on this floor versus the Blazers. That's too much history to go against, especially in a game where the Rockets will be playing for their playoff lives. The Blazers have been a poor investment in the postseason, especially when on the road following a win (they are on a 9-21-2 ATS slide in that spot). They are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 postseason games overall. Bet the Rockets. |
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04-29-14 | GOLDEN STATE GM5 v. LA CLIPPERS GM5 -5.5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5 Bottom Line: The Clippers have been dealing with some off-court issues surrounding the team owner. However, Sunday's 21-point defeat assures us they will be extremely focused and motivated tonight. The Clippers are an impressive 19-7 ATS following a loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.8 points in these contests. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games directly following a defeat of more than 10 points. They are also 13-2 ATS on the season following an upset loss and have responded to win by an average of 13.1 points in this spot. Teams out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more that are off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 38-13 ATS the last 18 seasons. Pound LA. |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | 107-97 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pacers -6.5 Bottom Line: The Pacers have really tightened the screws defensively, and that bodes extremely well for us as the series shifts back to Indy. The Pacers are 9-1 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games of holding foes to 39% shooting or worse. It has won by an average of 16.8 points in this spot. The Pacers won 101-85 in their last home game in the series despite Atlanta draining 10 3-pointers, and I expect another double-digit win from the top seed in the East. |
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04-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 | 109-98 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Bobcats +7.5 Bottom Line: The Heat will be looking to close out Charlotte tonight, but the Bobcats won't go down without a fight. I expect them to give Miami all it wants and to keep this one within the generous number. The Heat are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games while the Bobcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Warriors +2 Bottom Line: Look for Golden State to even the series this afternoon. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage of 60-70% the last 2 seasons, and they have defeated these teams by 9.5 points on average. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams off a home loss in a game involving teams with win percentages of 60-70% are 46-19 ATS since 1996. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Golden State. |
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04-26-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -3 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 92-89 | Push | 0 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -3 Bottom Line: I'll back the Thunder in this highly motivated spot. After losing 2 straight to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Thunder will be out for blood tonight. Since coach Brooks took over, OKC is 54-32 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 47-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, 50-32 ATS when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent and 53-33 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. |
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04-26-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 108-109 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy Saturday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -3.5 Bottom Line: The Spurs will come storming back following a poor performance in Game 2. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS this season in road games following an upset loss. They have won these games by 12.0 points on average. The Spurs are also 7-0 ATS this season in road games versus teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60%. They have won these games by an average of 13.2 points. The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 in Dallas, winning these by an average of 12.3 points. And, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound San Antonio. |
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04-26-14 | Indiana Pacers -2 v. Atlanta Hawks | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Major GM4 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -2 Bottom Line: The Pacers responded following a loss in Game 1, and I expect a similar response this afternoon. The Hawks are just 15-30 ATS in home games following 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 7-18 ATS in home games off a home win the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off 1 or more consecutive losses the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS off a road loss the last 2 seasons. |
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04-25-14 | Houston Rockets +3 v. Portland Trailblazers | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Rockets +3 Bottom Line: Houston won't go quietly into the night. It has won or lost by fewer than 3 points in 6 of its last 7 visits to Portland, and I expect this trend to continue. The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in these 7 visits, and the road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Additionally, Portland is 0-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog under coach Terry Stotts. It has lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation. |
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04-25-14 | Chicago Bulls +3 v. Washington Wizards | 100-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls +3 Bottom Line: The Bulls have the heart of a champion, and they aren't about to fold down 0-2. Chicago is a reliable 25-16 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss. It is also an impressive 117-81 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge since 1996. Furthermore, the Bulls are 37-22 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less under Tom Thibodeau. Washington is on an 11-25 ATS slide off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Teams headed up by Randy Witman are just 46-72 ATS as a home favorite, including 27-51 ATS as a home fave of 6.0 points or more. His teams are also just 5-16 ATS in home games following a close win of 3 points or less. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Pound Chicago. |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 98-96 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +2 Bottom Line: The home team has dominated this matchup going 10-3 in the last 13. The Clippers suffered each of the 3 home losses during this streak. The Warriors are 5-0 at home during this streak with an average winning margin of 11.2 points. Golden State was brutally embarrassed in Game 2 and will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder tonight as a result. The Warriors are 29-15 ATS after a loss of more than 10 points under coach Jackson, including 12-2 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss of more than 10 points. Pound Golden State. |
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04-23-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -6 | 112-105 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* Bailout on Rockets -6 Bottom Line: Look for the Rockets to come storming back in Game 2. A lot went right for Portland to win Game 1 (Harden shot 8 for 28 while Aldridge shot 17 for 31), but it still needed OT to get the job done. Despite the loss, Houston is laying as much as 1-point more (depending on the book) than it did in Game 1. This tells me oddsmakers expect to see a much different Houston squad here. Aldridge won't play as well as he did in Game 1, and Harden won't shoot as badly. I'm very confident the Rockets won't shoot as poorly collectively (only 41% in Game 1) because the Blazers allow 45% shooting on the season. Houston has quietly had a good season defensively, especially at home where it is allowing just 42.9% shooting. In the second half of the season, playing against underdogs that are off 2 or more consecutive overs in a game involving two teams that allow 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 10.3. Pound Houston. |
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04-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference 1st Round Game of the Year on Bulls -5 Bottom Line: The defense wasn't there for Chicago in Game 1 as it allowed the Wizards to score 102 points on 48.6% shooting. Recent history tells us the defense will be there for the Bulls tonight. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after giving up 100 points or more in its previous game. The last 7 of these covers were also straight up wins by an average of 12.9 points. Pound the Bulls as they tighten the screws defensively and bounce back strong. |
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04-21-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 | Top | 98-138 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -7.5 Bottom Line: Playing favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1996 if they have combined with their opponents to score 205 points or more in 4 straight games and are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg. If the contest takes place 42 games or later into the season, this system explodes to 35-10 ATS. Since Doc Rivers came to town the Clippers are an impressive 18-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivers when out for revenge for an upset defeat and have won in this situation by an average of 11.3 points. Pound the Clippers. |
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04-21-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Grizzlies +7 Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the Grizz in this bounce-back situation. OKC couldn't have gotten off to a better start in Game 1, and Memphis couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. Despite trailing by 25 points just before the half, Memphis cut the deficit to four points and won the 2nd half by 8 points. That does a ton for its confidence heading into this one.  I expect to see the defensive effort we saw from Memphis in the 3rd quarter from the jump tonight. The Grizzlies are on a 41-23 ATS run in road games when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent that scored 100 points or more both times. The Thunder are 9-21 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 60-70%. Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 8 of their last 11 meetings. |
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04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 +5.5 v. HOUSTON GM1 | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers +5.5 Bottom Line: Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing 4 games or less in 10 days and are off at least 2 consecutive home wins are 53-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. Portland has quietly been a terrific road investment all season, going 25-16 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in its last 4. The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but Portland took them to OT in Houston the last time these two met. The Blazers are 20-9 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more. The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record, and the underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Pound Portland, which enters the playoffs in better form. |
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04-19-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -7 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -7 Bottom Line: I expect to see a very hungry OKC squad tonight. Memphis sent the Thunder home early in last year's playoffs and that series loss will be all the fuel the Thunder need. The Grizzlies didn't have to deal with Westbrook in last year's series, but they will tonight, and they weren't able to handle him defensively while losing the 2 games he played against them this season. The Grizz don't do a very good job of getting to the charity, and that's an issue because OKC does. The Thunder are 13-3 ATS this season versus teams like Memphis that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game. They have defeated such teams by an average of 12.2 points. |
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04-19-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -7.5 Bottom Line: Defense wins in the NBA Playoffs, and Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. It has allowed just 88 ppg at home this season while the Hawks have allowed 104.4 ppg on the road. The Pacers held the Hawks to 90.3 points while averaging 108.7 in 3 home wins in last season's playoff series. Indiana might have entered the playoffs overconfident, but it struggled down the stretch of the regular season and lost badly on this floor to the Hawks just under 2 weeks ago. The Pacers will be highly motivation to crush the Hawks and any upset aspirations in Game 1 as a result. The favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings. Pound the Pacers. |
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04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7 | 109-105 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Clippers -7 Bottom Line: The Clippers were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round last year after winning the first 2 games of their series with Memphis. The harsh memory of that crushing series loss is all the motivation they'll need when they hit the floor this afternoon. Home court has been huge in this series. The home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average margin of victory of 14.1 points. The Clippers home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 16.7 points. In games played 42 games or more into the season, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more and have combined with their opponents for 205 points or more in their last 4 games are 35-9 ATS since 1996 if they are matched up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have won by 12.5. |
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04-14-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: I expect the Suns to stay in the playoff hunt with a win over the Grizzlies tonight. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 65-32 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. This system is a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. The Suns are 7-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 2.5 points or less, including 3-0 ATS in the role at home. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Pound the Suns. |
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04-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers -1 | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -1
Bottom Line: I'll lay this small number with a motivated Indiana squad that is 34-6 at home. The Pacers are still in the running for home court in the East while the Thunder have already secured the two-seed in the West and can't catch San Antonio. Additionally, OKC pounded the Pacers back in December so this game will be about payback. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are also 8-20 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons against teams with a win percentage of 60-70%. Indiana is 22-11 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses. The Pacers have won by an average of 10.3 points in this spot. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Pacers. |
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04-12-14 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -8 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Cavs -8
Bottom Line: Cleveland will be out to wash the sour taste of last night's loss in Milwaukee out of its mouth. It will also be out to make sure it doesn't get swept by Boston. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss and playing a 3rd game in 4 days are 67-40 ATS the last 5 seasons. Boston has been awful on the road where it is 8-31 on the season and has lost 13 straight. It's even 12-24 ATS in road games against teams with losing records over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Cavs. |
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04-11-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics +4.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for the Bobcats, who are coming off a very satisfying overtime win against Washington that moved them into a tie with the Wizards for 6th in the East and gave them the tiebreaker over the Wizards. Even though Boston won the last meeting between these teams, that was clear back in November, and this fatigued Bobcats squad will be looking to coast tonight. Charlotte has seen 4 of its last 7 games go to overtime, including its last 2. Boston isn't rolling over. It blew a 9-point lead with 5:44 remaining in Wednesday's 105-97 defeat to Atlanta and was outscored 30-16 over the last 12 minutes in its previous defeat, 115-111 to Detroit on Saturday. Those losses are not sitting well, and the Celtics will be motivated not to lose a 10th straight. I believe Rondo will be the key as he has given Kemba Walker fits in 4 previous head-to-head meetings. The Celtics won all 4. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 are 68-37 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team that has covered 6 or 7 of their last 8. This system is 26-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston. |
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04-10-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors -10.5 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy *BEST BET* Bailout on Warriors -10.5
Bottom Line: Denver spent itself in last night's win over Houston, and it won't have enough left in the tank to keep the score respectable versus a Golden State team that has had the last 3 days off. The Warriors also have a big motivational edge as they were defeated 123-116 at home the last time they faced Denver. They'll be out to avenge that loss as well as take a big step toward locking up the No. 6 seed. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Golden State. Pound the Warriors. |
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04-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs +2 v. Dallas Mavericks | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Spurs +2
Bottom Line: Likely no Parker or Ginobli tonight, but I don't believe it will matter. The Spurs are much more than the Big 3 these days, and they'll be hungry following a bad showing in Minnesota. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Mavs handed Utah a 12-point defeat last time out, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 versus the Spurs, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home meetings in the series. Playing against home teams that are playing with double revenge has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss on the road. |
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04-09-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +5.5 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Magic +5.5
Bottom Line: The Magic have an excellent chance to knock off a Nets squad that is in a letdown situation following last night's big win over the Heat. Orlando has a better home record that Brooklyn has on the road, and the Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, winning these games by an average of 4.8 points. |
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04-09-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -5 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards -5
Bottom Line: The Wizards blew a 16-point halftime lead in their recent 100-94 loss at Charlotte, and they'll be out for some serious revenge as a result. The Wizards are 48-26 ATS under coach Wittman when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, including 19-5 ATS in this situation this season. Pound the Wizards as they have their revenge in impressive fashion. |
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04-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | 88-87 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Heat -7
Bottom Line: Miami has lost all 3 prior meetings with the Nets this season and will be out for blood tonight as a result. Home teams that are out for revenge for at least 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent are 18-4 ATS the last 3 seasons if they are also off a home win. Additionally, the Nets haven't been the same team on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4. |
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04-08-14 | Detroit Pistons +7 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7
Bottom Line: In a game taking place at least 42 games into the season, playing against home favorites that led their previous game by 20 points or more at the half has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record since 1996 if the game involves teams that average 98-102 ppg. Additionally, road teams that give up 103 ppg or more and trailed by 10 points or more at the half in their last 2 games are 86-34 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 11-0 ATS this season. The Hawks are being overvalued following their big win in Indiana. Pound the Pistons. |
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04-07-14 | Kentucky v. Connecticut +3 | Top | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Championship *BEST BET* on Connecticut +3
Bottom Line: Connecticut continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers despite 4 consecutive outright wins as an underdog. The Huskies have been doing it with defense, holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 39.1% shooting or worse. Kentucky hasn't shown the same commitment to the defensive end as it has allowed 49.4% shooting over its last 4 games. I'll gladly take the better defensive team catching points, especially since that team has the best player on the floor in Napier. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games, including 5-0 ATS this season. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 16-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Huskies. |
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04-06-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings +6.5 | Top | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is being overvalued in this one because it has won its last 4 on the road. Its last 2 wins over the Kings have come by just 4 and 3 points. The Kings will be looking to avoid the season sweep as well as save face following an embarrassing 102-69 loss at Golden State. The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Kings are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Sacramento. |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky -1 v. Wisconsin | 74-73 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Major Final Four *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky -1
Bottom Line: Kentucky has the more talented team, and John Calipari is pushing all the right buttons as he so often does in the NCAA Tournament. Final Four appearances are nothing new to coach Cal, but this is the first for Bo Ryan. The Wildcats are less experienced in terms of years played at the collegiate level, but they have plenty experience on the bench with a coach that has shown, recently, that he can win it all with a bunch of freshman. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Big Ten foes. Coach Cal is 14-4 ATS in the Big Dance at Kentucky, including 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. His teams are 9-0 ATS since 1997 after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, winning these games by an average of 10.5 points. |
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04-05-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -3
Bottom Line: We rode the following system I'm about to unveil to a big win on the Rockets last night, and I'm going to ride it again here. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 69-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt, and I expect maximum effort from it tonight after a humiliating performance in Atlanta last night. Additionally, they will be out to make sure they aren't swept by Charlotte. Cleveland has won 14 of its last 16 at home against the Bobcats. Pound the Cavs. |
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04-05-14 | Connecticut v. Florida -6 | Top | 63-53 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -6
Bottom Line: UConn handed Florida one of its 2 losses this season, but that game was played at UConn and a closer look at the numbers shows that the Huskies shouldn't have come out on top. I fully expect the Gators to have their revenge in this neutral floor battle. UConn needed a 17-foot jumper from Shabazz Napier as time expired to beat Florida despite shooting 45.8% (11 of 24) from 3-point range and holding a plus-24 advantage from 3. That's because Florida outshot the Huskies 49% to 43.4% for the game and outrebounded them 34-26. If Florida can do a better job of defending the 3-point line, it should walk away with a comfortable win, and I'm confident it will. Florida has won 30 straight since losing to UConn, and it has won 9 of its last 10 by 7 points or more, including each of its 4 NCAA tourney games by double digits. Pound Florida. |
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04-04-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | Top | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Rockets -2.5
Bottom Line: Not only have the Rockets lost their last 3 games, they've lost all 3 meetings with the Thunder this season. They'll be out for blood here as a result. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 68-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off two consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, Houston is 18-3 ATS under coach McHale in home games after failing to cover in 4 or 5 of their last 6. The Rockets have won by an average of 15.0 points in this spot. Pound Houston. |
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04-04-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +11.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 90-102 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Oddsmaker Error on Bucks +11.5
Bottom Line: Playing against Friday favorites of 10 points or more that have won 3 consecutive games or more has resulted in a 36-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing on Friday double-digit underdogs off a double-digit loss on the road has resulted in a 40-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Chicago is a soft 8-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. |
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04-03-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *BEST BET* Bailout on Mavs +4.5
Bottom Line: Not only will Dallas be motivated by losses in each of the season's first 3 battles, but it will also be motivated by a loss to Golden State last game as well as the tight playoff race it finds itself in. The Mavs should have more legs having had yesterday off. LA used a lot of energy in last night's late comeback in Phoenix. Dallas is 27-13 ATS under coach Carlisle in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). Pound Dallas. |
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04-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record since 1996 if they enter off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Spurs are the hottest team in the league, but OKC has been their kryptonite. The Thunder are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings overall and 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 home meetings. OKC has been off since Sunday while the Spurs are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back and a 5th game in 7 days. |
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04-03-14 | Yale v. Murray State -7.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CIT *BEST BET* on Murray State -7.5
Bottom Line: Terrible spot for Yale playing a 2nd road game in 3 days and a 4th straight game on the road overall versus a team that has been at home for the entire CIT. To make matters worse, Yale is expected to be without leading scorer and rebounder Justin Sears, who injured his wrist against VMI. Murray State is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season, 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season and 6-0 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Racers are also 7-0 ATS this season in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 turnovers or fewer per game. Pound Murray State. |
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04-02-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Week on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: Phoenix needs this game more than LA, and it will be out for blood following Sunday's humiliating loss to the Lakers. Explosive offensive teams like Phoenix that average 103.0 ppg or more are 147-79 ATS since 1996 if they trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Suns are a trustworthy 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Clippers. Pound the Suns. |
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04-02-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5 | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +2.5
Bottom Line: Playing on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponent has resulted in a 76-39 ATS record since 1996 if the opponent checks in off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. |
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04-02-14 | Fresno State +1.5 v. Siena | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CBI Game of the Year on Fresno State +1.5
Bottom Line: Fresno State lost the first game of the series despite shooting 47.8% and holding Siena to 33.3% because it didn't take care of the basketball or the glass. I fully expect the Bulldogs to sew up these things and come out on top tonight. They are 10-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, 11-4 ATS in road games this season, 20-8 ATS as a road underdog or pickem over the last 2 seasons and 11-3 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. Pound Fresno State. |
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04-01-14 | Minnesota v. Florida State -1 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on FSU -1
Bottom Line: I expect FSU to advance to the NIT championship by avenging an earlier loss at Minnesota. The Seminoles are on a 45-32 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss, and the Golden Gophers haven't been the same team when stepping away from their home court. They've dropped 8 of their last 10 on foreign courts while FSU has won 4 of its last 5. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games while the Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Pound the Noles. |
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03-31-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets +4.5 | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: It will be very difficult for Memphis to cover this number. The Grizzlies are playing their 2nd road game in as many days, and 3rd in 4 days, and to make matters worse are playing in altitude where fatigue sets in faster. The Nuggets have had the last 2 days off so they carry a sizable advantage in terms of fresh legs. Underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more are 62-30 ATS since 1996 is they trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. |
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03-31-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +2.5
Bottom Line: Minnesota has lost 8 straight to the Clippers but has been very close to ending the skid this season. The T-Wolves haven't lost by more than 4 points in any of the season's 3 meetings with one of the losses coming by 2 points and the other coming in OT. With this in mind, I think we are getting a good number, especially since Blake Griffin is doubtful. The T-Wolves fell by double digits in Brooklyn yesterday but are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound Minnesota. |
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03-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | 103-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Pacers +4.5
Bottom Line: Home underdogs off an upset loss are 46-19 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a winning team. This system is 10-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 of more of their last 15 games are 77-36 ATS if they are playing a team that has covered the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6. This system is 8-1 ATS this season. |
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03-30-14 | New York Knicks +7.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 89-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +7.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are still fighting for a playoff spot, and I expect them to rebound following Friday's ugly loss to Phoenix. The Warriors are banged up. Their biggest concern is getting to the postseason as healthy as possible. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Pound the Knicks. |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Michigan +2.5
Bottom Line: Experience is huge this time of year, and Michigan has a decisive edge in terms of experience after making a run to the championship game last season. As you might recall, Kentucky lost the first game of the NIT last season. John Beilein is one of the most underrated coaches in all of basketball. Since 1997, his teams are 18-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky has the edge inside, but so has many of the teams Michigan has played and the Wolverines keep right on winning. That's because Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert are legit. The Wolverines are great at spreading teams out and penetrating to create open three-point shots, and they shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. They've been destroying teams from deep all season, and I expect no different in this one. Michigan is 7-0 ATS under Beilein after 5 straight games with 31 or less rebounds and it has won these games by an average of 5.9 points. So clearly it has found ways to make up for its shortcoming on the glass. Pound the Wolverines. |
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03-30-14 | Connecticut v. Michigan State -5.5 | 60-54 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major Elite 8 *SUREFIRE* on Michigan State -5.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in their last two games as it was tested by Harvard and Virginia. But, recent history suggests now's the time to hop on Sparty. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS after failing to cover in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, and they have won by an average of 14.1 points in this spot. Ultimately, I expect Michigan State's defense to be the difference in this one. The Spartans outdefended Virginia, and that's hard to do. They held the Cavs to 59 points on 35.1% shooting. MSU is 8-2 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game. |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -2.5 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -2.5
Bottom Line: Wisconsin was my Sweet 16 Game of the Year, and it came through against Baylor behind a strong defensive effort. In my report for that game, I highlighted that the best defensive teams tend to make the best investments at this stage of the tournament. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, it isn't the best defensive team in this matchup. While Wisconsin's 63.8 points allowed per game is impressive, it falls considerably short of the 58.4 points per game Arizona allows. Plus, the Wildcats are the more athletic team and will have more fan support with this one being played in Anaheim. Arizona has outdefended good defensive teams since Sean Miller took over. In games played 15 games or more into the season, the Wildcats are 15-5 ATS under Miller in road/neutral court games against good defensive teams that allow 64 ppg or less. They have won these contests by an average of 8.7 points while holding the opposition to 61.6. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Big Ten opponents. Pound Arizona. |
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03-29-14 | Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Washington Wizards | 97-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Washington following last night's big win over Indiana. Plus, an Atlanta team that has lost 5 straight knows it needs to start showing up if it's going to hold onto the No. 8 seed in the East. The Hawks should have no problem getting up for this game after getting hammered at home by the Wizards last month. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and Wizards are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 10-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The underdog is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. |
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03-29-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Week on Rockets -2
Bottom Line: The Rockets have yet to beat the Clippers this season, but they are primed to do it tonight. They catch the Clippers at a great time as LA is playing its 3rd road contest in 4 nights. Plus, Houston has been in a great rhythm offensively, and that bodes extremely well for us. The Rockets are 15-4 ATS under coach Kevin McHale after 4 straight games of making 47% of their shots or better. They have won by an average of 10.0 points in this spot. Houston has won 11 straight at home with wins over Portland, Indiana, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. The Clippers have shown some vulnerability on the road where they have lost 2 of 3. Pound the Rockets. |
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03-29-14 | Dayton v. Florida -10 | 52-62 | Push | 0 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major Elite 8 *SUREFIRE* on Florida -10
Bottom Line: Playing on neutral court favorites or pickems that average 67-74 ppg and are off 3 consecutive double-digit wins has resulted in a 50-15 ATS record since 1997 when they are matched up against a team that allows 67-74 ppg. Teams fitting into this scenario have won by 12.6 points on average. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. In games taking place on the road or a neutral court 15 games or more into the season, Dayton is 0-6 ATS under coach Archie Miller versus teams like Florida that average 53 shots per game or fewer. The Flyers have lost by an average of 12.8 points to these teams. It's been a nice run by Dayton, but I believe it comes to the end of the road Saturday afternoon. |
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03-28-14 | Michigan State v. Virginia +2.5 | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Dance *BAILOUT* on Virginia +2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State is an outstanding team, but it hasn't seen a defense like Virginia's all season. The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense with 55.5 ppg allowed, and they are excellent at frustrating teams by taking the air out of the ball on offense. Virginia is 6-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus elite teams that outscore the opposition by 8.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.1 points. The Cavs are also 10-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. They have limited these teams to 55.5 points while defeating them by an average of 12.3 points. Playing against neutral court teams like Michigan State that average 74-78 ppg and have led their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half has resulted in a 66-31 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less. |
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03-28-14 | Kentucky v. Louisville -4 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance *BEST BET* on Louisville -4
Bottom Line: Kentucky won 73-66 at home during the season, but the Louisville Cardinals are an impressive 37-18 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent under coach Pitino, and they have won by an average of 9.9 points in this spot. The Cards are also 9-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite of 6 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 9.9 points. The Cards are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games, and I look for them to get a little revenge against their rivals tonight. Pound Louisville. |
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03-28-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Brooklyn Nets -9 | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -9
Bottom Line: Brooklyn won the most recent matchup 89-82 at home to cover a 6.5-point spread. Now, it is laying 2.5 more points despite coming off back-to-back losses and despite Cleveland winning its last 3. That's because Brooklyn has won 11 straight at home by 11.4 points on average. Also, the Cavs are 11-26 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to 85 points or less. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and I expect them to continue their home dominance tonight. |
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03-28-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +3 | Top | 78-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +3
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Indiana as it hits the road following a big win over the Heat. The Pacers have lost 3 in a row and 6 of 8 on the highway. They are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 4-17 ATS in their last 21 road games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. Washington has lost its last 2 games and has been buried twice by Indiana this season so it will be lacking no motivation. Plus, it wants to hold onto the 6th spot in the East to avoid Indiana and Miami in the first round. Pound Washington. |
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03-27-14 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Arizona | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Dance Bailout on San Diego State +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a lot of points to be giving a San Diego State squad that can flat out defend, and the only reason it is getting them is because it lost to Arizona by 9 earlier this season. But, that game was played before Arizona's Ashley was lost for the season and before SDSU's Polee emerged. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game and 8-2 ATS this season in road/neutral court games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. They are also 9-2 ATS in road/neutral court games after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus Pac-12 opponents while the Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 versus MWC foes. |
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -1 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers -1
Bottom Line: Dallas has lost both meeting with the Clippers this season, and it catches them at a bad time. Off last night's ugly loss in New Orleans, LA will be out for blood. Playing against home teams in a double revenge spot has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons if the team they are out for revenge against is off an upset loss on the road. Plus, the Clippers are a perfect 9-0 ATS since Doc Rivers took over in road games following a road loss. They have won these games by an average of 9.4 points. Additionally, the Mavs are a poor 11-23 ATS as a home dog under Rick Carlisle. Pound LA. |
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03-27-14 | Baylor v. Wisconsin -3.5 | Top | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Wisconsin -3.5
Bottom Line: At this stage of the game, superior defensive teams tend to make the best investments. Wisconsin is the far better defensive team in this matchup. In road/neutral court contests, Wisconsin is allowing just 64.1 ppg on 42.7% shooting. Baylor is allowing 71.2 ppg on 44.9% shooting. Baylor couldn't miss against Creighton and is getting too much respect in this one as a result. I expect Wisconsin to put the clamps on defensively, especially since it didn't defend very well against Oregon. Wisconsin is now 5-0 ATS in its last 5 against non-conference foes and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 versus Big 12 opponents. The Badgers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tourney games. Pound Wisconsin. |
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03-27-14 | Dayton v. Stanford -3 | 82-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Dance *BLOOD BATH* on Stanford -3
Bottom Line: After back-to-back big wins over Ohio State and Syracuse, I expect Dayton to come back down to earth. Stanford's defense has been unbelievable in its first 2 tourney games. The Cardinal are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. They are 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. They are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots under Johnny Dawkins. |
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03-26-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 91-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ESPN *BEST BET* BAILOUT on Jazz +8
Bottom Line: The Jazz will be looking to bounce back following a 114-94 home loss to Detroit. They will also be out for revenge for a pair of 10-point losses to Memphis this season. Both of those games were on the road, and I expect things to go much differently in Utah where the Jazz are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Utah is 11-2 ATS the last 2 seasons after failing to cover in 4 of its last 5 games. The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Utah. Pound Utah. |
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03-26-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Wizards +2.5
Bottom Line: Washington's defense has been poor of late as it has given up 105 points or more in 4 straight games. Those were all on the road. The "D" should be much better at home where the Wizards have held their last 3 opponents to 98 points or less. The Wizards have been motivated by poor defensive efforts and are 14-4 ATS this season after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. They have won these contests by an average of 4.3 points. Washington has had the last 2 days off so it should be much fresher than a Phoenix squad playing a 3rd road contest in 4 days. |
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03-26-14 | Yale +5 v. Columbia | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CIT Game of the Year on Yale +5
Bottom Line: After upsetting Valpo on the road, Columbia took care of business at home with a win and cover against E. Michigan. Those covers set up a great wagering spot as the Lions are 0-6 ATS in home games after successfully cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Kyle Smith. Yale won the season's first matchup by 10 at home but was then crushed 62-46 at Columbia. That loss brought a 7-game win streak to an end, and the Bulldogs couldn't regain momentum in time to seriously challenge Harvard. Yale did win at Harvard this season, and that win is a clear indication of what it is capable of. I love the Bulldogs chances of revenge here as they are 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points. Pound Yale. |
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03-25-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Orlando Magic +5 | Top | 85-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +5
Bottom Line: The Blazers covered in Miami last night, erasing a 17-point 4th quarter deficit before LeBron James ripped their heart out. The Blazers, who are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover, will have a hard time pulling themselves off the floor after that heartbreaker. The Magic are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games, losing only twice by more than 5 points during this stretch. The Magic are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 home games against Portland with one of these losses coming by less than 5 points. Pound Orland. |
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03-24-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +2.5
Bottom Line: Bad spot for Brooklyn playing a 2nd road game in as many days, especially since yesterday's contest went to OT. The Nets are just 14-20 on the road this season, including 3-7 when playing without a day of rest. New Orleans hasn't quit on the season. It has won 6 of 9, including its last 2, with the most recent win coming against Miami. The Pelicans should also benefit from having had a day off prior to this contest. Home teams that shoot 45.5-47.5% and have a +/-3.0 rebounds per game margin are 74-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up with a team that holds opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and has a -3 to -5.5 rebounds per game margin. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Pound the Pelicans. |
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03-24-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks +1.5 | 102-95 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +1.5
Bottom Line: This game is meaningful for both teams in terms of the playoff race, but the edge goes to Atlanta at home where it is 20-12 on the season. The home team has had the advantage in this series, going 3-0 in the last 3 and 9-4 in the last 13. It's also worth mentioning that the Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 versus Pacific division foes and 7-4 ATS this season as home dogs. The Suns have dropped 7 of 11 this season when playing on the road without a day of rest. |
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03-23-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Dallas Mavericks -4.5 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -4.5
Bottom Line: This game means more to a Dallas team that is sitting 7th in a tight Western Conference playoff race. Plus, Brooklyn hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 5-6 in its last 11 and averaging just 94.8 ppg in these contests. It will have a tough time keeping pace offensively against a Dallas team that is averaging 111.0 points on 50.5% shooting over its last 5 games. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a win of 10 points or more over a division rival has resulted in a 53-24 ATS record since 1996 if their opponent is off a home win of 10 points or more. Pound Dallas. |
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03-23-14 | Mercer v. Tennessee -7.5 | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Dance *BLOOD BATH* on Tennessee -7.5
Bottom Line: The Mercer Bears fit into a negative situation today. Playing against NCAA tournament underdogs seeded 13-16 has resulted in a 44-16 ATS record the last 17 years when they check in with 4 straight victories or more. This system is 3-1 ATS in this year's Dance and 15-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. |
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03-23-14 | North Carolina +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 83-85 | Push | 0 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Big Dance *BEST BET* on North Carolina +2
Bottom Line: Huge blow for ISU losing Niang to a broken foot. Ejim received Big 12 Player of the Year, but anyone who has followed the Cyclones much at all would tell you that Niang is their X-factor. His versatility and big body make him a tough matchup almost every night. Without Niang, the Cyclones find themselves at a major disadvantage in the paint. He is, without question, their best back-to-the-basket post player. I expect Carolina to win the points in the paint battle and also the free throw battle given their superior size with McAdoo, Meeks and Johnson. The other thing I like about Carolina is that it doesn't turn the ball over. That cuts down on ISUs fast-break opportunities. Paige has better than a 2-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. The Heels are 55-28 ATS under coach Williams after a stretch of committing 14 turnovers or less in 4 straight games. Pound Carolina. |
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03-23-14 | Kentucky +5 v. Wichita State | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky +5
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are playing their best ball of the season, and they have the horses to take Wichita State down to the wire. The Shockers haven't seen this level of talent all season. The closest they came was when they faced Tennessee and that was in mid December. The Wildcats have been performing well against higher-caliber competition. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Wichita State hangs its hat on defense, but Calipari coached teams are 24-9 ATS since 1997 in game 15 or later versus teams that hold opponents to 39% shooting or worse. |
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