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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-15-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 117-131 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Super System *SUREFIRE* on T-wolves +11.5 Bottom Line: The T-wolves fit neatly into a system that has performed exceedingly well. Consider that plays on road teams that average 98-102 ppg have resulted in a 73-32 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are playing a team that allows 98-102 ppg and if they've allowed 100 points or more in 2 straight games. Additionally, the Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 35-16 ATS in the last 51 meetings, and the Timberwolves are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Dallas. |
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11-15-14 | Florida State v. Miami (Fla) +3 | 30-26 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3 Bottom Line: FSU has been playing with fire all season, falling behind early but rallying in the second half. This is where it finally gets burned. Teams headed up by Al Golden are 8-0 ATS lifetime as a home dog of 7 points or less and have won these games by an average of 6.0 points. Golden's squads are also 7-0 ATS at home versus good offensive teams that average 31 or more ppg, 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 10 ppg or more and 7-0 ATS in home game versus teams with a pass completion percentage of 62% or higher. Bet Miami. |
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11-15-14 | Auburn v. Georgia -2 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia -2 Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Auburn after fumbling away a comeback victory and a spot in the football playoff last week. The Bulldogs will have no problem getting up for this one. As you recall, they were gut-punched by Auburn on a tipped 73-yard TD with 25 seconds left last November. 7 games or more into the season, playing against road dogs that average 6.2 yards per play or more and have averaged 525 or more total yards over their last 2 games has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1992, provided they are up against a team that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Georgia. |
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11-15-14 | Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards -8.5 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Wizards -8.5 Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Orlando, which will be playing for the 4th time in 5 days and the 8th time in 12 days. Washington had 3 days of rest prior to its last game and 2 days of rest prior to this one. It gets 3 more days off after this game so it has no reason to hold anything back. The Wizards won in Orlando by 7 points earlier this season, but that win was the 2nd game of a road back-to-back. This is a much better spot. The Wizards are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Magic with these wins coming by an average of 9.6 points. The Wizards are also 5-0 in their last 5 home games against the Magic with these victories coming by 14.4 points on average. Pound Washington. |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -8 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -8 Bottom Line: This is Stanford's last home game of the season, and it will make it count. The Cardinal still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be highly motivated. They should also be the more prepared side with last week off to focus solely on this contest. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they did not cover. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after playing their last game on the road. Utah has really struggled to stop the run lately, not a good sign considering it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Pound Stanford. |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major CFB Early *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +5.5 Bottom Line: Duke has had a nice run, but VA Tech will put more talent on the field Saturday, and that gives it an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 9-1 against Duke with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. They are 4-0 at Duke during this stretch. Grab the points. |
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11-14-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics +6 | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +6 Bottom Line: Cleveland is getting too much respect from odds makers. The Cavs really have only 1 quality win on the season, an OT win in Chicago. The Celtics also have a win in Chicago and didn't need extra time to pull it off. Rose wasn't playing when the Celtics beat the Bulls, but this line is still off the mark. Everyone seems to be giving this Cavs team their best shot, and I expect no different tonight. Playing underdogs that average 103 ppg or more that are up against a team that has scored 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 94-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons. |
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11-14-14 | Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Nuggets +3.5 Bottom Line: Indiana beat Miami in its last game, but it is a very poor 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. The Pacers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games versus teams with a losing record and 12-31 ATS in their last 43 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Denver is coming off a pair of double-digit defeats to Portland. However, road teams off 2 straight double-digit defeats are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons if their opponent is coming off a game where both it and its foe scored 90 points or less. This system is 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Denver. |
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11-14-14 | Minnesota +8 v. Louisville | 68-81 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Major CBB Opening Night *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Minnesota +8 Bottom Line: Minnesota enters the season with tons of confidence and momentum after capturing the NIT championship. Both teams play a similar style, and Minnesota has the veteran guards, seniors Andre Hollins (13.6 points) and DeAndre Mathieu (12.0), to handle Louisville's pressure. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, and the Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten. |
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11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -4 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4 Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami. |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -1.5 v. Cincinnati | 46-54 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on East Carolina -1.5 Bottom Line: The Pirates were stunned at Temple last time out but have had a bye week to regroup, and I fully expect them to respond tonight. They are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Cincy is 0-8 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992. |
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11-12-14 | Ball State +4 v. UMass | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Major MAC Monster on Ball State +4 Bottom Line: Ball State is an unbelievable 43-16 ATS in its last 59 road games, including 15-3 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog of 7 points or less. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Cardinals lost 35-21 to Northern Illinois last week in an ugly 5-turnover performance, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. |
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11-12-14 | Detroit Pistons +7 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7 Bottom Line: The Pistons are off to a slow start, but they are a talented team and it's only a matter of time before they start clicking. They'll be confident here as they go up against a Washington team they have had a great deal of success against, and I'm not hesitating to take them getting a big number. They are 18-5 in the last 23 meetings. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Pound the Pistons. |
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11-11-14 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Northern Illinois -4.5 Bottom Line: At home on Senior Night with a chance to move into first place in the MAC West, Northern Illinois will take care of business. The Huskies are 4-0 in their last four against Toledo and 3-0 in their last 3 home meetings in the series. These 3 home wins have come by 31, 35 and 7 points. The Huskies get some additional help tonight from Toledo's banged up QB position. Woodside is questionable and won't be close to 100% if he does play. The Rockets took care of Kent State last week, but they are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win against a conference opponent under coach Campbell. Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins in conference play and are up against a team that's off a double-digit road win has resulted in a 42-10 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. |
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11-11-14 | Orlando Magic +11 v. Toronto Raptors | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +11 Bottom Line: Orlando won't have Toronto's full attention tonight. The Raptors have won 8 straight in the series, including a 13-point win Nov. 1 and will be looking ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Bulls as a result. Double-digit dog off 2 or more consecutive overs that average 92-98 ppg and are playing a team that allows 92-98 ppg are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 29 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7 Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers. |
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11-10-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks +1.5 | 91-85 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +1.5 Bottom Line: The Knicks lost in Atlanta by 7 points Saturday, but we are catching a good number at home in the rematch. This line is factoring in fatigue for the Knicks, who are playing their 5th game in 7 days, but I don't see it being an issue this early in the season. History supports my opinion. When the line is +3 to -3, teams playing a 5th game in 7 days in the month of November are 64-26 (71%) ATS since 1996. The home team is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings, and the Knicks have won 26 of 34 at home against the Hawks dating back to 1996. |
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11-09-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +3.5 Bottom Line: This is a good spot for the Lakers to pick up their first win of the season. They have had four days to rest their bodies and prepare for the Hornets. I expect LA to be very determined. The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. |
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11-09-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major Pacific Division *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Suns +1 Bottom Line: The Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS on the season and are being overvalued by odds makers because of it. Playing against road teams in Sunday that have beaten the spread by 42 points or more in their last 5 games has resulted in a 20-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. The Suns won both home meetings in last season's series, and the home side is 6-1 ATS in the last 7. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5 Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +6 Bottom Line: The Steelers have looked good in recent weeks with Big Ben playing at a high level, but I expect them to get all they want and more from the Jets. The Steelers are 15-26 ATS in road games following a win under Tomlin. They are 10-19 ATS under Tomlin after a victory of 14 or more points. Additionally, playing underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of 25% or worse that check in off 7 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 112-67 ATS record since 1983. The Jets are way better than a 1-8 team. They've been close to beating some of the best teams in the league this season and would have had the ball bounced their way a few more times. I like their chances of knocking Pittsburgh off its high horse. |
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11-09-14 | San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New Orleans Saints | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +6 Bottom Line: This game means more to the 49ers, who are third in their division. The Saints will be just fine if they lose since no team in the NFC South has a winning record. The Niners are 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh following a stretch of 2 losses in a 3-game span. They have won these 7 by an average of 16.1 points. The Niners are also 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt or more and 7-0 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with no loss by more than 3 points. |
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11-08-14 | Virginia +20.5 v. Florida State | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR ESPN ATS *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia +20.5 Bottom Line: The Seminoles have been extremely overvalued all season and are just 2-6 ATS as a result. They should be 1-7 ATS as they were very fortunate to cover last week after falling behind 21-0 at Louisville. The Noles have only 1 win by more than 18 points in FBS action this season. Last week's 25-point loss at Georgia Tech doesn't look good for Virginia, but it hadn't lost by more than 8 points prior to that. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia keeps this one within the number. |
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11-08-14 | UTEP v. Western Kentucky -7.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky -7.5 Bottom Line: When UTEP has been deemed an underdog by odds makers, it's been for good reason. The Miners are just 3-11 ATS when catching points under coach Kugler and have lost these games by 20.9 points on average. They are also 1-8 ATS under Kugler in road games falling after the first month of the season, losing these by an average of 28.9 points. Pound WKU. |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Clippers -4 Bottom Line: The Clippers have yet to cover a spread this season, but now is the time to back them. Consider that teams with a win percentage of 51-60% that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are an impressive 71-37 ATS the last 18 years. Doc Rivers wasn't at all happy with how his team performed at Golden State last time out, and he made it well known. The Clippers respect their head coach, and I expect them to answer the bell. |
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11-08-14 | Michigan v. Northwestern +2 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +2 Bottom Line: Michigan handled Indiana last week, but I'm not sold that the Wolverines are back. They are a dismal 1-9 ATS in road games following a home win under coach Brady Hoke and have lost by an average of 8.3 points in these contests. Pound Northwestern. |
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11-08-14 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -5.5 | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR BIG 12 *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Oklahoma -5.5 Bottom Line: I really feel Oklahoma is the better team, and it will be lacking no motivation after the beating it was handed at Baylor last season. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference game involving teams that average 34 ppg or more has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record since 1992. Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in weeks 10-13 that are off a win of 35 points or more over a conference opponent are 60-26 ATS since 1992. |
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11-07-14 | Dallas Mavericks -3.5 v. Utah Jazz | 105-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Mavs -3.5 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Utah following Wednesday's buzzer-beating win over the Cavs. Dallas took it on the chin in Portland last night and will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor against a Utah team it defeated 120-102 Oct. 30. Playing against November home dogs off a close home win of 3 points or less has produced a perfect 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. |
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11-07-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns -5 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Suns -5 Bottom Line: The Kings crushed Denver Wednesday but are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Suns lost by double digits to Memphis the same night but are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS at home when the total is between 205 and 209.5 under Hornacek, and they have won these games by 11.0 points on average. |
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11-07-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major ESPN *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +7.5 Bottom Line: No Durant or Westbrook, but the Thunder still have enough fire power to keep this one within this generous number. The Thunder are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. |
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11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming +7.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wyoming +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Cowboys catching better than a TD at home. They were able to snap a 4-game skid last week with an impressive win at Fresno State. Momentum has meant a lot to Wyoming, which is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points and 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games after outgaining a foe by 175 yards or more. Playing on the road back-to-back weeks is never easy, especially on a short week when the last game was a lengthy trip (Hawaii in this case). To make matters worse the Aggies are on their 4th QB. Utah State handled the Cowboys last season, but that ensures us that Wyoming will be looking for payback. Pound the Cowboys. |
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11-07-14 | Memphis -7 v. Temple | 16-13 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
4* Major AAC *SYSTEM SUREFIRE* on Memphis -7 Bottom Line: Playing road favorites that have beaten the spread by 49 points or more in their last seven games has resulted in a 46-16 (74%) ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Temple snapped East Carolina's 5-game win streak last week, but it shouldn't have. The Pirates committed five costly turnovers. The fact the Pirates outgained Temple 432-135 tells the real story. Memphis is the more talented team and should take care of business tonight. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Browns +7 Bottom Line: The Browns aren't getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. They have only 1 loss of more than 7 points this season. They have wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh and lost to Baltimore by only 2 points. Teams have been a phenomenal play with Brian Hoyer under center the past 5 seasons. They are 17-6 ATS with him on the field, including 8-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as a road dog. Hoyer is also 8-1 ATS versus teams like the Bengals that give up 20.4-26.4 ppg during this span. The Cincy defense hasn't lived up to expectations, ranking 30th in the NFL with 394.98 ypg allowed. That bodes well for the underdog, which is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. |
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11-06-14 | San Antonio Spurs +4 v. Houston Rockets | 81-98 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs +4 Bottom Line: The Spurs played last night but had 4 days off prior and are playing just their 4th game of the season so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. The Rockets are playing their 6th game overall and 3rd in 4 days so I don't see an advantage for them in terms of fresh legs. Because Houston is undefeated and because it swept the season series last season, I expect the defending champs to get up for this one. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without rest. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. |
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11-06-14 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +21 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wake Forest +21 Bottom Line: Clemson is being overvalued on the road considering it has only 1 win of more than 21 points against FBS competition this season. Wake Forest has just 2 defeats of more than 21 points this season and has put forth some quality efforts when the odds have been stacked against it, going 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog this season. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite as the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. The Demon Deacons have been smacked by Clemson the past 2 seasons so they'll draw a little added incentive from those defeats. Pound Wake Forest. |
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11-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State +3.5 | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Ball State +3.5 Bottom Line: The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and 13-5 ATS off a win against a against a conference rival under coach Lembo. NIU stood in Ball State's way of an undefeated record in conference play last season. Look for the Cardinals to have their revenge. |
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11-05-14 | New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons -4 | 95-98 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -4 Bottom Line: I like the Pistons to finally break into the win column tonight. They've had 3 days to prepare for this game while the Knicks are being asked to play their 2nd game in as many nights. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. The favorite is a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. |
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11-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers +3 | 82-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *PUNISHER* on Blazers +3 Bottom Line: Excluding pushes, Portland is 85-56 ATS over its last 141 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less and has only lost by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. The Blazers were 31-10 at home in the regular season last season so they aren't used to losing at home. Sunday's home loss to the Warriors should provide all the motivation they need. Grab the points. |
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11-04-14 | Toledo v. Kent State +14 | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Kent State +14 Bottom Line: Toledo fits into a negative wagering situation that has been money in the bank. Playing against road teams like Toledo that have a win percentage of 60-80% and have failed to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games has resulted in a 67-29 ATS record since 1992. This system has gone 14-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Rockets haven't defeated an FBS opponent by more than 14 points this season because they are soft defensively. Grab the points. |
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11-03-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Denver Nuggets -7 | 110-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nuggets -7 Bottom Line: Following consecutive big wins over the Blazers and Clippers, expect a letdown from the Kings in Denver tonight. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. Sacramento is also on a 65-91 ATS slide in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Kings are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Denver. |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5 Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York. |
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11-03-14 | Houston Rockets v. Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5 Bottom Line: I like the 76ers at home catching nearly double digits against a Houston team that's riding high from a 3-0 start. With the Heat, Spurs and Warriors this week, the Rockets will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand. Besides, home court has been huge in this matchup with the home side going 6-0 ATS in the last 6. Pound Philly. |
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11-02-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers -3.5 Bottom Line: It looks like the Warriors will again be without David Lee, and it finally hurts them here. Lee will be missed against a Portland team that will expose the Warriors down low with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman. Bogut is a good interior defender, but he can't handle all these guys on his own, which is basically what is being asked of him tonight. The Blazers should also be the fresher team as they had yesterday off while the Warriors played last night and traveled. Pound Portland. |
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11-02-14 | Charlotte Bobcats +4 v. New York Knicks | 93-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hornets +4 Bottom Line: The Knicks are getting a little too much respect following their win over Cleveland. New York is on a 3-14 ATS slide at home in the first half of the season while the Hornets are on an 11-2 ATS run in first half of the season road games. Charlotte is coming off a loss in Memphis last night but is on a 27-14 ATS run following defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five after being held to less than 75 points. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York. |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins | 0-37 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL False Favorite on Chargers +2.5 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Chargers have lost their last 2 but those were to a couple of good teams. The loss in Denver was a really tough spot (on the road in a short week). Because the Chargers played the Thursday game last week, they've had 3 extra days to prepare for this battle and the extra time should treat them well. The Chargers are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. November road teams that are off a road loss are 70-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bolts. |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -130 | 73 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year on Jets +10.5 Bottom Line: The Jets are a much better football team than their 1-7 record suggests, but it's that 1-7 record that is allowing us to catch a great number. The Jets played Green Bay to a 7-point game on the road and led that game 21-3. They've also played Detroit to a 7-point game, New England to a 2-point game and would have played Denver to a 7-point game had it not been for a pick-six at the end. This is a game the Jets have a good shot to win straight up because the strength of their defense matches up well with the strength of the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rely heavily on their running attack, but it will be tough sledding against a New York stop unit that holds opponents to 85.4 ypg on the ground. Road dogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 66-33 ATS since 1983. Week 9 or later underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 91-44 ATS since 1983. November road dogs or pickems off 5 or more consecutive defeats are 42-14 ATS since 1983. Pound the Jets. |
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11-02-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Major Letdown Game of the Week on Jaguars +11.5 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Cincy following last week's emotional win over Baltimore. The Bengals play the Thursday game next week against division rival Cleveland and will have a tough time not looking ahead to that contest. Playing against home favorites that have a winning record on the season and are off an upset win at home over a division rival has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record since 1983. |
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11-01-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz +2 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +2 Bottom Line: Tough spot for Phoenix as it hits the road for the first time this season following a huge win over the Spurs. This one has letdown written all over it for the Suns, who are 0-2 in their last 2 versus the Jazz and 1-4 in their last 4 in Utah. They are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and have dropped 23 of 35 in Salt Lake City. Pound Utah. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +12 v. Kansas State | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +12 Bottom Line: The Cowboys are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that held their last opponent to 9 points or less has resulted in a 29-7 ATS record since 1992, provided they are taking on a team that has lost its last 2 games by 17 points or more. |
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11-01-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Orlando Magic +6.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Magic +6.5 Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Toronto which will be much more concerned about tomorrow's content in Miami than an Orlando team it has defeated 7 straight times. The Magic have been competitive at home in the series, though, losing the last 2 in Orlando by only 2 and 5 points, respectively. The Raptors are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Magic. |
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11-01-14 | Texas State v. New Mexico State +7.5 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico State +7.5 Bottom Line: We'll back New Mexico State at home off a bye against a Texas State team that will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Georgia Southern. In a game between teams with 8 of more returning offensive starters, taking home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outgained by 125 or more total yards last game has resulted in a 46-17 ATS record since 1992. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Pound the Aggies. |
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11-01-14 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | 33-31 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 48 m | Show | |
4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech -3.5 Bottom Line: VA Tech has dropped its last two, but it is 12-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992 and has won these games by an average of 11.0 points. BC is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. |
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11-01-14 | Central Florida v. Connecticut +11 | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 47 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Major CFB Revenge Game of the Week on Connecticut +11 Bottom Line: UConn went down 62-17 at UCF last season, and I expect an inspired performance here as it looks to save face. UCF is off a big win over Temple and has a bye next week and it will have a tough time getting up for this one as a result. UConn is 8-0 ATS all-time off 2 consecutive road losses. It's also 7-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. UCF is 1-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Knights are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. |
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11-01-14 | Maryland +4 v. Penn State | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland +4 Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Penn State following last week's tough-to-swallow OT loss to Ohio State. This is a big bounce-back spot for Maryland after getting kicked at Wisconsin last week. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after being held to 100 rushing yards or less last game. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game, after gaining 2 or less rushing yards per attempt last game, has resulted in a 42-15 ATS record since 1992. This system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. |
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10-31-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +6 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6 Bottom Line: The Kings were horrible in their opener, shooting just 30.8% from the field and committing 26 turnovers. We're getting a great number here because of it, and rest assured they'll put forth a much better effort tonight. The Kings won 123-119 as a 5-point dog the last time Portland visited. And, they lost by a single point in Portland in the most recent meeting so I'll gladly take the points here. The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Sacramento. |
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10-31-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cavs +4.5 Bottom Line: The Bulls rolled the same Knicks team that beat Cleveland last night. So the Bulls should roll tonight, right? If that's your strategy, it's going to be a long season. LeBron James was embarrassed last night, and I expect a massive effort as he looks to save face. The Bulls still have some jelling to do as well with Rose back and Gasol added to the mix. It may not have looked like it against the Knicks, but New York was horrible that night. Chicago has been the worst home favorite in the NBA lately, going 26-44 ATS in the role the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cavs. |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* Game of the Month on Tulane +6.5 Bottom Line: Tulane is 12-4 ATS at home under coach Johnson, including 6-1 ATS in its last 7 at Yulman Stadium. Playing home teams with a +/- 40 rushing ypg margin has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons provided they've held their last 2 opponents to 100 yards or fewer on the ground and are playing a team that has been outrushed by an average of 50 ypg or more on the season. Pound Tulane. |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Carolina Panthers | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3 Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 5 points or more in the first half has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they scored 14 points or less last game. The Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with a New Orleans side that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The Panthers rank 24th, and they haven't been good enough defensively to offset their offensive shortcomings. They've allowed an average of 31.2 points over their last six games. Field position will also likely go New Orleans' way. The Saints are 7-0 ATS lifetime in games played in Week 9 or later versus poor punt coverage teams that allow 12 yards per return or more under coach Payton. They have won by an average of 18.6 points in this spot. |
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10-30-14 | New York Knicks +13 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +13 Bottom Line: The Knicks were smoked last night by a Chicago Bulls team that can really defend. I expect them to shoot the basketball much better tonight. The Cavs are loaded with talent, but it will take them some time to jell on both ends of the floor. The Knicks are a fantastic 14-5 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a loss greater than 10 points. Pound New York. |
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10-30-14 | Florida State v. Louisville +4.5 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +4.5 Bottom Line: I think some have forgotten just how good a coach Bobby Petrino is. Having had a bye week to prepare, he and his coaching staff will have their No. 1 ranked defense ready for the Noles. Petrino's college teams are 39-17 ATS all-time at home, including 29-12 ATS after the first month of the season and 23-7 ATS in the second half of the season. The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Florida State has had a few really close calls this season and will have a tough time making it out of this one alive. Pound the Cardinals. |
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10-29-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings +4 | Top | 95-77 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +4 Bottom Line: This is a game the Kings have been looking forward to. They were embarrassed 102-69 at Golden State last April and will be highly motivated as a result. Sacramento is 24-11 in its last 35 home games versus the Warriors, and it has won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 7 of its last 10 home games in the series. Pound the Kings. |
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10-29-14 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Jazz +3.5 Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Rockets following their easy win over the Lakers, but Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit victory and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing without a days' rest. |
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10-29-14 | Detroit Pistons +6.5 v. Denver Nuggets | 79-89 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pistons +6.5 Bottom Line: The Pistons underachieved last season and that is showing up in this line. I expect them to be greatly improved under Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Western Conference opponents and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. |
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10-28-14 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers +6 | 108-90 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +6 Bottom Line: After winning last season's first meeting by a point, the Lakers were crushed by Houston in the final 3 matchups of the season. Those lopsided losses assure us LA will be lacking no motivation on opening night. I expect a strong performance from Kobe Bryant, who will be out to silence doubters. The Lakers are 50-33 versus Houston since 1996, including 29-15 at home. Bet LA. |
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10-28-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs +4.5 Bottom Line: Dallas has been an awesome road play under coach Carlisle and is 51-26 ATS all-time under his watch in road games played in the first half of the season. It is 72-40 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of 6 points or less, including 24-11 ATS in this role the past 2 seasons. For the Spurs, opening night will be about honoring last season's achievement. For the Mavs, it will be about revenge. They pushed the Spurs to the limit in last season's playoffs and will be out for a little payback. Pound the Mavericks. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins +10.5 Bottom Line: The Redskins picked up a much-needed win last week and carry that momentum into Dallas tonight. With a showdown against 6-1 Arizona on deck, the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot. Dallas has been an awful investment against losing teams at 8-20 ATS in the last 28. It is even 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Cowboys are an unreliable 11-23 ATS as a favorite under Jason Garrett, including 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has been the play in the series as it is on a 7-1 ATS run. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run in Dallas. This is a lot of points for the 7th-ranked defense in the league to be catching. I like Washington to give the Cowboys a game tonight. Pound the Redskins. |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +1 Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't lost in their last 12 regular-season home games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests going back further. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with winning road records, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a game where they finished under the total and 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Playing against favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are coming off covers as a favorite in their last 2 games. Playing against road teams that are off a win of 21 points or more has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game. Home underdogs or pickems that average 5.4 yards per play or more are 35-11 ATS since 1983 if they've given up 400 total yards or more in their last 2 games. Pound Cincinnati. |
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10-26-14 | Detroit Lions v. Atlanta Falcons +4 | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major Sunday NFL *BLOOD BATH* on Falcons +4 Bottom Line: Atlanta is 2-5 but isn't about to throw in the towel. It's just one game behind division leader Carolina in the win column, and there's a whole lot of football left to be played. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS since 1992 in games played away from home following a road blowout loss of 21 points or more. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Atlanta. |
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10-25-14 | Nevada v. Hawaii +3 | 26-18 | Loss | -115 | 58 h 31 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii +3 Bottom Line: Nevada is ripe for a letdown following last week's upset win at BYU. The Wolf Pack have been a poor investment off a win, going just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following victories. Hawaii enjoys a nice home field advantage because teams are often jetlagged after making the long trip. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team has won, or lost by less than 3 points, in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Hawaii is 6-1 in its last 7 home games versus Nevada. Bet Hawaii. |
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10-25-14 | Ohio State v. Penn State +14.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 30 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +14.5 Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Nittany Lions. Off back-to-back losses, they will be focused. Furthermore, they were hammered 63-14 by Ohio State last season - the worst loss in program history since 1899. Penn State's 41 returning lettermen will be out for payback. The fact they have had an extra week to prepare only adds value to this play. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Penn State is 22-10 ATS in home games off a road loss since 1992. Coach James Franklin's teams are 9-1 ATS lifetime in home games played on a grass field. Bet Penn State. |
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10-25-14 | Alabama v. Tennessee +17.5 | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +17.5 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Alabama following last week's 59-0 rout of Texas A&M. Bama has a bye week next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it starts its off week early. The Crimson Tide have been a poor investment as they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and struggled to beat Arkansas in their last road game. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points 7 games or more into the season has resulted in a 56-23 ATS record since 1992 if they are an excellent defensive team that allows 16 ppg or less and has allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games, and if they are playing a team that allows 21-28 ppg. Teams fitting this scenario have won by just 9.6 points on average. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 13 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY 2014 CFB GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State pk Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home where they are 4-0 this season with an 18.5-point average margin of victory. Oklahoma State took it on the chin big time at TCU last week and, in case that loss isn't enough motivation, it was upset at West Virginia last season. The Cowboys are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a defeat of 21 points or more in conference play. WVU won't bring the same level of motivation into this one following last week's upset win over Baylor. The Cowboys are on a 17-4 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Oklahoma State has been about as reliable as it comes at Boone Pickens, where it has just 4 losses since 2010. It is 30-4 in its last 34 at home, including 24-2 in its last 26. Pound Oklahoma State. |
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10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cincinnati -10 Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Cincinnati, which was upset at South Florida last season. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 350-241 but were killed by 4 turnovers. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 at home versus the Bulls with all 4 victories coming by at least 14 points. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points has resulted in a 43-18 ATS record since 1992 if they give up 440 ypg or more and are playing a team that allows 390 to 440 ypg. Pound Cincy. |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -8.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Broncos -8.5 Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Chargers, playing in Denver's high altitude on a short week against a Broncos team that is hitting on all cylinders. Despite San Diego's 5-game win streak coming to an end last week, the public is still high on the Chargers and will be tempted to take them considering they haven't lost by more than 8 points in any of the past 4 meetings. San Diego won at Denver during the regular season last year, and the Broncos will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again. The Chargers played the Broncos to a 7-point game in Denver in last season's playoffs, but the Broncos led that game 17-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. In a game involving teams who outpass opponents by 1.5 yards per pass or more, you want to take home favorites provided they held their last opponent to 5.5 yards per pass or less. That's because doing so has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.4 points. Additionally, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 13.2 points. Bet the Broncos. |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami pk Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing road teams with a win percentage between 51-60% has resulted in a 22-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Miami has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be out for some serious revenge following last season's 42-24 home loss to the Hokies. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in road games the last 22 seasons versus teams with a win percentage between 51-60%. The Canes are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hokies went down at Pitt last week as they gave up 210 yards on the ground. They are missing D-tackle Luther Maddy in the trenches and have been dealt another blow with leading tackler Chase Williams expected to miss this game with a knee injury. Without those two, Tech will have a tough time slowing down Duke Johnson and a Miami running game that has averaged 215 yards over its last 3 games. The Hokies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Pound Miami. |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana-Lafayette +3 Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns dominated Arkansas State last season on the road. They won by 16 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the score looked considering they outgained the Red Wolves by 302 yards. With all but 5 starters back, I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to take care of business again. ULL is 7-1 in its last 8 home games in the series and is an impressive 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. Additionally, playing against road favorites with a good run defense that allows 3.25 ypc or less, provided they averaged 5.5 ypc or more in their last 2 games, has resulted in a 69-34 ATS record since 1992. Bet ULL. |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 23-30 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +3.5 Bottom Line: The Texans have been more impressive than Pittsburgh this season. They've lost their last 2 but those came on the road in OT to 6-1 Dallas and at home by 5 to 5-2 Indianapolis. Because Houston played the Thursday game last week, it has had an extra three days to prepare. The extra prep time gives the edge to J.J. Watt and the Houston defense. Watt has four sacks and leads the league in QB hits with 20. Ben Roethlisberger has already been sacked 17 times and looks to be a sack-fumble waiting to happen in this one. While I'm paying a little extra for the hook (because I hate kissing my sister), I still like the Texans at +3 (the largely available line) so the following system applies. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that allowed 30 points or more last game has resulted in a 64-30 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 6 points or less. This system tightens up to 24-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet Houston. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 53 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7 Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York. |
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10-19-14 | Atlanta Falcons +7.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -135 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta. |
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10-19-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 0-27 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bengals +3 Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't performed well on the defensive side of the football the past 2 weeks and went 0-1-1 as a result. After a disappointing sister-kissing performance, they'll be ready to go. They crushed the Colts 42-28 last season, and I'm confident they're still the better team. Cincy is 11-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and has won by an average of 2.7 points in this situation while holding foes to just 19.7 points. The Bengals are also 9-1 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Lewis and have won by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. When the line is +3 to -3, plays against teams like Indy that are off 2 straight dominating performances where they had 34+ minutes of possession time and 24+ first downs has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1983. Bet the Bengals. |
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10-18-14 | Tennessee +16.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +16.5 Bottom Line: Ole Miss is off back-to-back huge wins over Alabama and Texas A&M and has covered the spread in every game this season. As a result, odds makers have overinflated the line, giving us a great opportunity to strike with Tennessee. The Vols have played some great competition, stepping on the field with Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. It lost to Georgia and Florida by 4 points combined, and while Florida might not be at the level of Ole Miss this season, Georgia is. The Tennessee defense has been extremely impressive, holding foes to 19.2 points and 316.3 ypg. I think the Vols will be solid enough defensively to keep this one within the number. Tennessee is a reliable 29-12 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 (typically conference contests) since 1992. Additionally, road teams that have held their opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 100-57 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Tennessee. |
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10-18-14 | Virginia +3 v. Duke | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major ACC *BEST BET* on Virginia +3 Bottom Line: I'll grab the field goal with Virginia giving the motivational and situational edges it has in this game. The Cavs have lost 2 straight to Duke by double digits so they'll want this one just a little bit more. Plus, they will benefit from having had an extra week to game plan. The Cavs have been a sweet investment, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8. They are even 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus winning teams and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Bet Virginia. |
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10-18-14 | Iowa v. Maryland -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland -4.5 Bottom Line: Maryland was crushed by 28 at home in its last game, which means it went into its bye week hungry. Teams tend to respond following lopsided losses, especially at home, and Maryland is 21-8 ATS the last 22 seasons in home games after a defeat of 17 or more points. Iowa blew out Indiana last Saturday but was fortunate to do so. It had a week to prepare for Indiana's running attack and allowed the Hoosiers to rack up 316 yards on the ground. It was outgained for the game, and I think the Hawkeyes were in trouble if Sudfeld (QB) isn't lost to injury. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Maryland didn't run the football well at all against Ohio State, and you can bet that didn't set well with coach Edsall. His teams are 18-6 ATS all-time after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. Pound Maryland. |
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10-17-14 | Temple v. Houston -7 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Houston -7 Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points that are off two straight wins against conference opponents and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win has resulted in a 58-20 (74%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points on average and have lost by 12.4 points on average. Houston returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Temple by 9 points. That game was even more lopsided than the score indicates as the Cougars outgained the Owls 524-300. While the Owls are improved, they haven't closed the gap enough to keeps this one within the number. Pound Houston. |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Major Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Oregon State +3 Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Oregon State at home with extra time to prepare against a Utah team it has had the number of. Oregon State went on the road and upset the Utes last season, and the Beavers won by double digits at home the previous year. The Utes are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Beavers are 19-7 ATS following a bye week under coach Riley and 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 games in October. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the schools. When odds makers are expecting a close game, it hasn't been wise to bet against Oregon State, which is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under Riley. It has won these games by an average of 3.5 points. Bet the Beavers. |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10 Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York. |
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10-16-14 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -110 Bottom Line: The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh, which has lost its last three. At home and with extra time to regroup, I expect the Panthers to get back in the win column. Pitt has been a terrific bounce-back team (in terms of the number), going 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 following a loss. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 following a win. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at Pittsburgh. Pound the Panthers. |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Lafayette +3 Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-3 but have played a tough schedule with games at Ole Miss and Boise State. They were the preseason pick of most to win the Sun Belt with 17 starters back. They are off to a 1-0 start in the league, but they have no time to relax as Georgia Southern is already 4-0 in conference play. Lafayette won last season's battle 48-24 while outgaining the Bobcats 572-196. Normally, I would look to play the revenge angle here, but I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to be ready after narrowly escaping Georgia State last time out. Texas State is 3-2 and averaging 38.6 ppg but hasn't played the same caliber of opponents as Lafayette. Besides, the Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 31 ppg or more under coach Hudspeth, and they have won these games by an average of 12.3 points. Pound ULL. |
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10-13-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4 Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams. |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 21 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5 Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland. |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +10.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +10.5 Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive losses, Rex Ryan's job is on the line. So is Geno Smith's. I expect both to respond. This is a terrible spot for Denver, which takes the road for just the 2nd time this season and is riding high following a convincing win over Arizona. With the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots on deck, the Broncos will have a tough time getting up for the Jets. I'll gladly take the points in a game the New York has an excellent chance to win outright. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jets, but Denver has forced only 3 all season. Plus, New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has the ability to pressure Manning. It's tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 17. Playing against road teams after a win by 21 or more points that are up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons (14-2 ATS the last 5 seasons). Also, plays on any team after 5 straight games of forcing 1 turnover or less against an opponent that is off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse has resulted in a 40-12 ATS record since 1983. Desperate teams are the best teams, and this is a very desperate spot for Rex Ryan and company. |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Major AFC East *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bills +3 Bottom Line: Playing against teams with a winning record that are off an upset with at home and are up against another winning team has resulted in an 81-38 ATS record since 1983. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game and are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game has resulted in an 85-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. The Pats are a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 30 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Orton's teams are 5-0 ATS all-time in his starts versus teams with a win percentage of 55-65%. |
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10-11-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -2 | 35-20 | Loss | -106 | 81 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M -2 Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Ole Miss following a massive win over Alabama. Meanwhile, this is a bounce back spot for A&M after getting taken out behind the woodshed by Mississippi State. A&M gave up 559 yards to the Bulldogs, but it is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The defense has held the opposition to an average of 13.6 points in this situation. Sumlin's teams are a sensational 21-9 ATS lifetime as home chalk, and his Texas A&M teams are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. They've won these 6 by an average of 28.0 points. |
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10-11-14 | Florida International v. Texas-San Antonio -12 | 13-16 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on UTSA -12 Bottom Line: This game depends on which UTSA team shows up. Will it be the one that took Arizona down to the wire or the one that didn't show up against New Mexico? Following the New Mexico debacle, I'm expecting a huge bounce-back effort. Based on statistics, I ran 2 simulations and both had UTSA winning 31-9 while outgaining FIU 409-194. The Roadrunners ran for 155 yards and passed for 254 while holding the Golden Panthers to just 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Based on these simulations, the following trends apply. UTSA is 6-0 ATS when its allows 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS when it scores 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS when it rushes for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS when it allows 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on North Carolina +17 Bottom Line:This is a look-ahead spot for Notre Dame, which is coming off a satisfying win over Stanford and has a showdown with defending champion Florida State next week. UNC won't get its full focus, and that gives it an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. Playing on average offensive teams (UNC) that gain 4.8 to 5.6 ypp that are up against good defensive teams (ND) that allow 4.2 to 4.8 ypp has resulted in a 26-7 ATS record the last 22 years, provided the play on side has given up 525 ypg or more in its previous 3 contests. Teams fitting this system has been underdogs of 14.8 points on average but have lost by only 7.0 points on average. |
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10-11-14 | Louisville v. Clemson -9.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 56 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ACC Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -9.5 Bottom Line: Louisville doesn't have enough offense to keep this one within the number. In 3 road games, the Cardinals are averaging only 323 ypg. They've been bailed out by their defense, but it won't be able to hold down a Clemson offense that's averaging 585 ypg at home. Louisville's defense currently ranks #1 in the nation, but it is yet to face a team with an explosive passing attack. Expect to see several big plays out of the Tigers with no answer from Louisville against Clemson's Top 10 defense. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. Clemson is 9-0 ATS lifetime at home under Dabo Swinney when laying 7.5 to 14 points and has won by an average of 23.0 points in these games. Pound Clemson. |
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10-11-14 | Duke +3 v. Georgia Tech | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Major ACC Coastal Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +3 Bottom Line: Duke has lost 10 straight to the Yellow Jackets so it will have no problem getting up for this one. I like its chances of earning an outright victory after having had a bye week to gear up. In a conference matchup of low-turnover teams that average 1.25 giveaways per game or fewer, playing against home favorites has resulted in a 79-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Duke is 10-2 ATS versus teams that commit 1 turnover per game or less under coach David Cutcliffe. This trend speaks volumes about the Blue Devils. They've had a lot of success against teams that don't beat themselves. |
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10-11-14 | Florida State v. Syracuse +23.5 | 38-20 | Win | 101 | 71 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on Syracuse +23.5 Bottom Line: FSU will be much more concerned with next week's showdown with Notre Dame than a Syracuse team it defeated 59-3 last season. That brutally embarrassing loss along with last week's ugly performance versus Louisville assures us the Orange will be highly motivated. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss to a conference rival. The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games. |
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10-11-14 | UL-Monroe +21.5 v. Kentucky | 14-48 | Loss | -106 | 71 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Major Early Letdown on UL Monroe +21.5 Bottom Line: Off a big win over South Carolina and with LSU up next, Kentucky won't give the Warhawks its full attention. The Wildcats are a dismal 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win, and I'm not hesitating to fade them laying a big number in this letdown spot. |
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10-10-14 | Fresno State v. UNLV +10 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UNLV +10 Bottom Line: The UNLV Rebels fit into a powerful system tonight. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allow 16 ppg or more in the 1st half and are off 2 or more consecutive unders has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting theses parameters have lost on average but only by 4.3 points. Additionally, the Fresno State Bulldogs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Friday night contests. The Rebels, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference matchups. The Bulldogs have a big showdown with Boise State up next and will look right past a UNLV squad that has dropped 4 straight. The Rebels have lost by more than 10 points just 2 times in their last 16 home games. That's a rock solid trend I'll gladly get behind. Pound UNLV. |
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