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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -3.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -117 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals -3½ -117 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Broncos +3 -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 148 h 28 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Dolphins +5½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Texans +8 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 835 h 48 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Bills -6½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Bucs -8 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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01-24-21 | Bucs +4 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Bucs +4 -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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01-17-21 | Browns +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 42 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Browns +10 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints -10 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Saints -10 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Washington Football Team +9½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions +9.5 | Top | 47-7 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Lions +9½ -108 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings +7 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 29 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Vikings +7 -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers -13 v. Bengals | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -13 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -4 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Raiders -3 -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -2½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Patriots +6½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens -7 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -7 -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-06-20 | Eagles +9 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Eagles +9 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +3 +101 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 23 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Vikings -2½ -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 147 h 49 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Browns -3 -104 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -114 | 52 h 39 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Texans -6½ -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Packers -4 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +12.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Giants +12½ -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 147 h 23 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Colts -2½ -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +2½ -106 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-25-20 | Steelers -1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 34 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -1½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 14 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Saints -7½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 147 h 2 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -7 -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 180 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Packers -6½ -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 177 h 53 m | Show |
5* MNF GOY on Ravens -3 -120 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-27-20 | Rams +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Rams +2½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -3 +105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots +4.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 13 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Patriots +4½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Ravens -7 -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Chiefs -9 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -7 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 149 h 10 m | Show |
5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109 I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco! |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFL Divisional Round PLAY OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -9½ -110 I got no problem laying the big number with Kansas City on Sunday at home against the Texans. I think a lot of people will be drawn to Houston here, simply because Houston won at Kansas City earlier this season. Thing is, the Chiefs were up 17-3 in that game and this is really a different team than when they met back in Week 6. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. Another common thought process for people is that Andy Reid is not a good coach in big games and while he's had his fair share of failures in the playoffs, you simply don't bet against him when he's got two weeks to prepare for an opponent. He's 18-3 ATS off a bye in the regular-season and 4-1 ATS off a bye in the playoffs. I think this Chiefs offense has been holding back a lot of things for the playoffs and this Texans defense is one they can exploit. Houston finished with the 29th ranked pass defense, giving up 267.3 ypg. Mahomes will have a field day and that much improved Chiefs defense will do their part behind an electric home crowd. Take Kansas City! |
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01-11-20 | Titans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 91 h 20 m | Show |
5* NFL - VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Titans +10 -110 I love the value here with Tennessee as a double-digit dog against the Ravens. The betting public can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right now and I think the number here has been inflated to the point that this is a no-brainer on the Titans. Tennessee might have made it in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but this team likely would have won the AFC South had they started the season with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota. Everyone likes to focus on what Derrick Henry is doing and it's hard to not get caught up that, but Tannehill has been outstanding for the Titans. No question the Patriots offense was broken, but New England's defense is the real deal and they had no answer for the 1-2 punch of Henry and Tannehill. As good as Baltimore was against the run, there's just no slowing down Henry. I think they are going to be able to shorten up the game and most importantly keep Jackson and that Ravens offense off the field. On the flip side of this, I think Tennessee has the defense to at least slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens run game. I think in doing so they can get Baltimore to press a little and really make this thing interesting. Give me the Titans +10! |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115 I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing. Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways. A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand. Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense. Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia! |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +3 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -120 | 106 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120 I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it. Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer. Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home. Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-12-19 | Jets +15 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110 I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one. The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one. It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but  I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books. Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York! |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125 I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! |
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12-01-19 | Bucs -1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110 I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! |
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11-28-19 | Bears -3 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100 I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 23 m | Show |
5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110 I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-17-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120 Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 24 m | Show |
5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119 The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland! |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115 I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6. Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread. Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York! |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115 I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record. Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this. Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore! |
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10-31-19 | 49ers -10 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109 Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg. Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest. Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco! |
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10-27-19 | Packers -4 v. Chiefs | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105 No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that. It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing. I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay! |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120 It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses. He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago! |
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10-06-19 | Cardinals v. Bengals -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110 Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! |
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10-06-19 | Bears -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110 This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110 I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +3 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110 I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground. That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York! |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 26 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110 Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama. They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them. Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 40 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109 I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers. The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year. I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play. No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate. Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 133 h 33 m | Show |
5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106 I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team. It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype. I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006). The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 8 m | Show |
5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110 I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good. I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season. Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh! |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams + I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted. I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers + I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread. Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly. The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens - This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards. The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games. I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore! |
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12-30-18 | Bears v. Vikings -4.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -103 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings - Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers. You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend. While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field. Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota! |
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12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions +6 | Top | 27-9 | Loss | -102 | 51 h 37 m | Show |
5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions + We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy. I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason. Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD. Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit! |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers + This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road. Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11. The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game. It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina! |
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12-15-18 | Browns +3 v. Broncos | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns + Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure. A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball. While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland! |
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12-09-18 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 46 m | Show |
5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens + This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games. With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball. With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce. The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore! |
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12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +10 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions + I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season. On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention. I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog. Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit! |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +7.5 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys + We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys. That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11. The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas! |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins +10 v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 31 m | Show |
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins + It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown. I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright. The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down. Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami! |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +12.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 18 m | Show |
5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Falcons + The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up. Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that. I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta! |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions + I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings. The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota. Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less. We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit! |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears - I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff. Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago! |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR  on Packers + There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals. While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense. The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay! |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 19 m | Show |
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans + Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans. I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg. While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game. Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee! |
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11-04-18 | Bears v. Bills +10 | Top | 41-9 | Loss | -105 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills + The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog. Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them. Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game  where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo! |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills + We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 131 h 53 m | Show |
5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags + I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here." Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants + The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late. The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined. The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York! |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins + Cincinnati is getting way to much respect here at home. The Bengals pulled off an incredible 37-36 win over the Falcons last week, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Miami on the other hand lost 38-7 at New England. I just think we have seen a big overreaction to the Dolphins loss. They couldn't have caught the Patriots at a worse time, as New England was 100% locked in after losing two straight. The Patriots would have done that to a lot of teams. This is still the same team that started out 3-0 and we can be sure we get the very best they have to offer off that embarrassing loss. Cincinnati has started out strong, but I don't think this Bengals team is anything special. They got a lot of keys guys out with injury right now and are running out of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Eifert is on IR, second year wide out John Ross is questionable with a groin injury and their top two backs, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are also both questionable. I think this should be closer to the Bengals as a 3-point favorite, giving us almost a field goal worth of value on a team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. Dolphins have also covered 5 of their last 6 after a poor offensive game where they had fewer than 150 passing yards. Take Miami! |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers + The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league. Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense. I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright. There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco! |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
5* Jets/Browns TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jets + The Cleveland Browns have won 1 game dating back to the start of the 2016 season. They had their chances in each of the first two weeks of 2018 to get a win, but continue to find ways to lose games late. This team has no business laying this many points against any team right now. The Jets came out with an impressive 48-17 win at Detroit on Monday Night Football, but laid an egg on short rest in a 20-12 home loss to the Dolphins. I think that poor showing against Miami has people once again second-guessing this team and that's created some big time value here with New York in this matchup. No question the Browns defense is improved, but I don't think it's as good as people are making it out to be. They have benefited greatly from the opposing team making costly mistakes, as they have 8 takeaways in 2 games. At some point the turnovers won't be there and this defense will get exposed. Look for Darnold to have a big game and while I'll gladly take the points, I fully expect New York to win this game outright. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and have cashed 4 of the last 5 tickets on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 3-points or less. Take New York! |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 61 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags + This Jaguars team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. Jacksonville had the Patriots on the ropes in last year's AFC Championship Game and that was in New England, where few have been able to just keep games close against the Patriots in the postseason. I like the Jaguars to get their revenge here in Week 2 at home. This is all about the matchup for me and as good as Tom Brady is, I think that Patriots offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against this top-tier Jacksonville defense. The Patriots are thin up front on the offensive line. They traded away Nate Soldier, saw their top draft pick in Isaiah Wynn land on IR and now starting right tackle Marcus Cannon is questionable to play. New England also lost running back Jeremy Hill to IR and could be without two of their top backups at running back, as both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are questionable. I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball in this one and that's going to let that loaded Jags front pin their ears and come after Brady. Over the years, the one big neutralizer to Brady and that Pats offense is a great pass rush. Say what you want about Blake Bortles, he picked apart this New England defense last year and I expect him to make enough plays here for the Jaguars to win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! |
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09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts -3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -105 | 482 h 27 m | Show |
5* NFL Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Colts - This is just too good a price to pass up on Indianapolis at home. The Colts should have no problem here taking down the Bengals in Week 1. There's no doubt in my mind that Indy is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league with Andrew Luck back healthy at quarterback. I just think he hasn't played in so long that people are skeptical of taking them. The Colts are 26-11 SU and 24-12 ATS with Luck as a starter in home games. On the flip side of this, Bengals' starter, Andy Dalton, is a mere 15-25 in 40 career starts as an underdog. I've never really been a big fan of Dalton and there's just not a ton to like about this Cincinnati team, especially on offense. Last year the Bengals averaged just 18.1 ppg and were dead last in the NFL at 280.5 yards/game. They didn't do anything well, ranking 27th in passing and 31st in rushing. Little was done to improve that side of the ball. The defense also wasn't great (ranked bottom half of the league in both scoring and total defense) and has been on the decline ever since Mike Zimmer left to be the head coach at Minnesota. Not to mention they will be without their best defender for the first four games in Vontaze Burfict (suspended). Take Indianapolis! |
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09-09-18 | Bills +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 50 m | Show |
5* AFC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bills + Buffalo is a team the public wants absolutely nothing to do with going into the season and there's no question the books have inflated this line on the Ravens. A lot of people were way down on the Bills last year, especially after they traded away the likes of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland and Marcell Dareus. All this team did was finish 9-7 and snap a 17-year playoff drought, making it in as a Wild Card. While Buffalo does lose starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the team is confident that Nathan Peterman can hold the fort down until rookie Josh Allen is ready to take over. Peterman had a rough go of things after he was force into action as a rookie last year, but he looked sharp in the preseason, completing 33 of 41 (80%) of his attempts for 431 yards with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. Buffalo won a lot of games last year leaning on their running game and a defense that forced 25 takeaways. They know how to win sloppy and I expect them to hang around against a Ravens team that isn't known for blowing out opponents. Ravens are just 18-21 ATS as a home favorite with Joe Flacco as their quarterback and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers and were a perfect 3-0 ATS in September last season. Take Buffalo! |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -119 | 217 h 36 m | Show |
5* Falcons/Eagles Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Falcons + It's just a given that the defending Super Bowl champ is going to be overvalued on the spread the following season. I know this line has dropped some with Wentz not playing, but I still think there's a lot of value with Atlanta. Nick Foles put on a ridiculous performance last year filling in for Wentz, but this guy has been hit or miss his whole career. I think we already saw signs of things not being as good as they were a season ago. I know it's the preseason and you can't overreact to what you see, but the Eagles offense was dreadful when Foles was under center. Add in he's not going to have one of his top wide outs in Alshon Jeffery, who is out with a shoulder injury, and how talented this Falcons defense is, I think the struggles continue in Week 1. Keep in mind Atlanta will be out for blood in this one after losing to the Eagles in the playoffs, a game they have to feel like they should have won. I also think the Falcons offense is flying way under the radar. They weren't nearly as bad as people made them out to be in 2017. They got all their top weapons back, plus used their 1st round pick on Alabama's Calvin Ridley, who looks like the real deal. As good as the Eagles defense was, I think the Falcons are able to move the ball and ultimately win this game. Take Atlanta! |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars + I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9. Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season. While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers + I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown. Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg. As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games. It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina! |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 30 m | Show |
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals + I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts. While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals. Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright. Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati! |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7 | Top | 14-7 | Push | 0 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets + I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins. At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game. I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright. Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York! |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 28 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans + I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game. I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs. The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee! |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7. The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons. Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina! |
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12-03-17 | Giants v. Raiders -7 | Top | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 103 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders - I absolutely love this spot for Oakland, as I think the Giants are a massive fade right now. New York showed some life with a surprising win over Kansas City at home and while they didn't cover in their last game against the Redskins, they were in a great position to late. The thing is the Chiefs couldn't be playing much worse right now and Washington is decimated with injuries, which really showed up in their game on Thursday against the Cowboys. New York played about as well as they could in those two games and easily could have lost both. I just don't see the same effort going forward, especially after the team announced they were benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. That's a pretty clear picture to the players and coaching staff that the goal from here on out isn't to win games. It's not like they are playing Smith to see if they have something for next year. They are downgrading at the most important position on the field on purpose. Oakland hasn't been playing up to expectations this year, but this is still a decent team that when they are right can light up the scoreboard. They also desperately need to win this game to keep any hope alive of making the playoffs. I only see one team showing up to play on Sunday and any time that happens, that's a recipe for a blowout. Take Oakland! |
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11-26-17 | Bears +14 v. Eagles | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 53 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears + This is the time to go against the Eagles. Philadelphia is flying high after their 37-9 blowout win over rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and now return home for a game against the 3-7 Bears before going back on the road for another huge game against the Seahawks. I think the Eagles are going to have a really tough time giving the Bears the respect they deserve and that could prove costly, as this is much better Chicago team than their record would suggest. The Bears haven't lost a game by more than 8-points since September back before Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago is able to keep game close because of their ability to run the football and a defense that is much better than anyone realizes. I look for the Bears to grind out every possession to eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions for the Eagles offense, while the defense does a good job of getting off the field on 3rd down. Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago! |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
5* NFC North (Thanksgiving) GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions + I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota had been flying under the radar up until last week's convincing 24-7 win over the Rams. Now I feel like the Vikings are overvalued here as a division road favorite against a good but not great Detroit team that knows a thing or to about playing on Thanksgiving. Keep in mind these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year and the Lions were a 1.5-point favorite and won 16-13. On top of that, Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Based on that spread, this line should be closer to a pick'em and you could argue that Detroit should be favored. As good as Case Keenum has been playing, the Lions still have the edge in this one at quarterback with Matthew Stafford. The other key thing here is that while the Vikings have a great defense, it's going to be hard for them to play up to their true potential after laying it all on the line against the Rams and having just 3 days to prepare. Note that Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg. Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Minnesota is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Detroit! |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 59 m | Show |
5* NFC ATS GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings - I really like the value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home against the Rams. Los Angeles is the talk of the NFL right now and have absolutely just dominated in their last 3 games, beating the Cardinals 33-0, Giants 51-17 and the Texans 33-7. One thing you will note with all 3 of those game is they came against teams that have been absolutely decimated with injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hard for this team to not have a big head right now and that's the last thing you want going up against this Vikings team. While the Rams are getting all kinds of love, Minnesota is a team that has played great to start the year and yet no one is talking about them. I think we get a big time effort here from the Vikings in this one, who are much better offensively than they get credit for and certainly have the defensive playmakers to slow down this high-scoring Rams offense. Vikings are also historically a great bet at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, as they are 22-8 ATS at home since he came to Minnesota. He's also got his team to play well against great offensive teams, going 14-4 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards/game. Take Minnesota! |
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