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Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports -Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke vs Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech +7½ -115 | Premium | 77-63 | Loss | -115 | Show |
| Lakers vs Blazers | OVER 224 -110 | Premium | 136-113 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Providence vs Rhode Island | Providence -1½ -109 | Premium | 61-75 | Loss | -109 | Show |
| Clippers vs Bucks | Bucks -3½ -109 | Premium | 91-119 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Wolves vs Thunder | UNDER 220 -109 | Premium | 127-139 | Loss | -109 | Show |
| Lakers vs Blazers | Blazers +4½ -110 | Premium | 136-113 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Dartmouth vs South Florida | OVER 119 -109 | Premium | 44-63 | Loss | -109 | Show |
| CS-Northridge vs Portland State | UNDER 159 -109 | Premium | 67-73 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Nuggets vs Celtics | Nuggets +3½ -105 | Premium | 95-108 | Loss | -105 | Show |
| Warriors vs Bulls | Warriors +4½ -105 | Premium | 100-98 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Pittsburgh vs Louisville | OVER 125½ -125 | Premium | 46-64 | Loss | -125 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
GOALTENDERS: NEW JERSEY - LOUIS DOMINQUE, NASHVILLE - PEKKA RINNE
NJ is having a hard time scoring of late with consistency and have failed to score more than 2 gaols in 6 of their L/9 overall and have averaged just 2.1 gpg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Nashville has only averaged 2.2 gpg in their L/5 in low scoring affairs, that have seen a combined average of 4.8 gpg going on the scoreboard. Im betting on both these teams to continue their current trends and for this total to remain on the low side of the total.
NASHVILLE is 9-2 UNDER against struggling defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game this season.
Play UNDER
My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.
Play UNDER
Play UNDER
Write-up (analysis):
My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.Play UNDER
Write-up (analysis):
My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.Play UNDER
The Houston Rockets behind the leagues No.2 offence and 2nd fastest pace has averaged 128.2 points in its last six games and Im betting will have another big effort tonight vs a 22nd ranked ppg allowed D. Meanwhile, the Suns, have allowed an average of 123.3 in their last six. But they've squeezed a pair of wins into the half-dozen, including a 139-132 overtime triumph at New Orleans on Thursday as their offence continues to show some flashes of explosiveness behind the 5th ranked offensive ppg side in the league. Im betting the Suns will do more damage here tonight against Houstons 23d ranked ppg allowed D, in what should be a chase the leader type of affair.
Play OVER
Two defensive minded teams with top tier forechecking systems and offenses that work out of transition go head to head tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 5 nights, so run and gun hockey should be off the table and low scoring game should be the result.
DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season.NY ISLANDERS are 8-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season.
Play UNDER
AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The Tigers closed -14 against Cincinnati in their meeting last week, and despite of not covering looked like the far superior side. Now on a single digit line their is value with the favorite in the rematch. I know quarterback Desmond Ridder is back for the Bearcats but he was highly erratic in recent starts and is still dealing with a shoulder injury that is less than 100% healed. I must also be noted that Cincinnati has lost the stats battles in 8 of their 12 games this season , including 1-7 ITS the last eight overall tilts and over rated in my humble opinion at this juncture of the season. Note: MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Memphis to cover
Billy Napier, UL Lafayette is a highly under rated team and from a bettors perspective an ATN machine cashing 18 of 25 times for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. I know App State is nationally ranked side, but when these teams played earlier this season the Cajuns stayed with them almost every step of the way and the 17-7 , 10 point margin of victory for the Mountaineers was a little misleading. Since that above mentioned loss to App State , the Cajuns have reeled off 6 straight wins and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash a ticket for us today on what is now a bloated line according to my projections.
LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games which was the case last time out vs UL Monroe.
APPALACHIAN ST is 4-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on UL Lafayette to cover
When these teams met earlier this season in Waco the Bears built a 28-3 lead against the Sooners, but blew that lead as the Sooners woke up and won 34-31. Now in this championship game Oklahoma will be fully focused and be ready for this tilt and will be prepared for a fast start and keep the pedal to the proverbial metal from start to finish. The Sooners football program owns a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS mark in big 12 championship games.The favorite is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine tilts in this event. Also recently the Sooners are 11-2 ATS as single-digit chalk. The Sooners also have the motivation of getting the final and 4th spot in the college football play off, but their victory has to be convincing to beat out a impressive Utah side and will be merciless here if up.
CFB team (BAYLOR) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 37-78 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 68% conversion rate.
Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC
Clemson Im betting will do their part here today, behind an explosive offence that averages 45.2 ppg.On the flip side, I know Clemson has allowed only six touchdown passes all season but what is important here in factoring in Virginias offensive production is that the Tigers have not faced a dual threat quite like UVA senior quarterback Bryce Perkins, who leads the ACC and ranks 13th nationally in total offense (3,636 yards). He was responsible for 475 of the Cavaliers' 492 yards against the Hokies when he played them, and has the ability to make Clemsons D work harder than usual.
Note: CLEMSON in their L/14 tilts vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons have scored average of 44.6 ppg. Meanwhile CLEMSON L/140 games when they score 28 or more points have seen a combined average of 60 ppg go on the board.
CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CLEMSON) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 OVER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play OVER
BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LUCAS OIL STADIUM - INDIANAPOLIS, IN
Ohio State (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) leads the nation in points per game (49.9) and there maybe only one other team in the nation that can slow down this incredible offensive juggernaut and Wisconsin is not that team. With that said, I look for Wisconsin to try to reply with as much fire power through the air as they can muster, because running against one of the nations nastiest front 7 is a night mare, as was the case for star Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor in two previous encounters vs the Buckeyes including one this season when they lost 38-7. No way I can see them repeating that mistake as their only chance at victory is moving the ball downfield via their aerial attack, which in turn will open this game up and easily help it eclipse this total.
OHIO ST is 11-2 OVER in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.9 ppg scored.
Play OVER
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX
No. 6 Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12 play) and No. 7 Baylor (11-1, 8-1) will square off for all the marbles on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in a game I have pegged to be all out offensive rodeo affair. I know Baylor is a top tier defensive side, but the Sooners can score on any team with a rapid fire run and gun offence that features the Big 12's top scoring offense (44.3 points per game; No. 5 nationally) The Sooners also rank first in the country in total offense (564.3 yards per game). To beat the Sooners Baylor is thus going to have to open up and respond with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the field. The Bears can do that vs a Sooner D, that ha shown some weaknesses this season, as was the case vs Iowa State allowing 41 points and Kstate allowing 48 points in their game against Baylor 31 points in a game that saw 65 totals points scored.
OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 85.5 ppg.
Play OVER
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.
My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!
I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.
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