Cappers Sports Picks

De Jong will make his third start of the season after giving up five runs (three earned) in his last start against the Royals and owns a 8.11 road ERA. The 24-year-old was recalled from Triple-A Rochester on Sept. 3. Im betting the welcome wagon won't be a friendly one here today as the As light him up and notch a win behind their starter Fiers (12-7, 3.38) a hurler who has done best work at home for the A's. He's gone 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA in five home starts since being acquired last month from Detroit.Fiers is 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA in 10 career head-to-heads, including nine starts, against the Twins.

FIERS is 9-0  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) by a average of 3.1 rpg. MINNESOTA is 2-18  against the money line in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season losing by an average of 2.9 rpg.

OAKLAND is 25-7  against the money line against AL Central opponents this season by an average of 2.2 rpg.

 Twins have not won a series at Oakland since 2011, and have gone just 4-17 at the Northern California site since the start of the 2012 season.

The Athletics have won 16 in a row as a moneyline favorite off a game as a favorite in which they struck out at least ten times and it is post All-Star break and not a series opener and 14 of those games on the runline. 

Play on the Oakland As to win on the runline 

 Cincinnati D, is ranked 2nd in the nation right now and their ground game is averaging 5 yards per carry.  I expect the Bearcats will pound away here and eat up clock time while their own D keeps Solichs offense off the field consistently which will mess with the Bobcats fluidity which in turn will see them frustrated.  Cincinnati continues to roll, on their way to their 4th straight win and cover.

Cincinnati is 21-2 L/23 vs MAC opponents SU. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 with the average margin of victory combing by 20.6 ppg.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Wainwright turned back the clock with six shutout innings in his most recent start, cementing a spot in the end-of-season rotation. This could be his final start at Busch Stadium before his contract expires. I expect the Cards veteran hurler will be at his best today. He faces a strong looking rookie pitcher in Rodrigues, but the Cards have the edge here playing at home and with a superior batting order that is more consistent.

 Mike MIKE is 25-9 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of ST LOUIS.

ST LOUIS is 11-1 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.

WAINWRIGHT is 14-3  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. 

The Cardinals have won 19 straight on the moneyline and 10 straight on the runline  when Adam Wainwright starts as a 135-plus favorite in September or later.

Play on the Cardinals to win on the monyeline 

This is a trap game for Notre Dame, and Im confident they don't deserve their high ranking,

Some of the interesting factors that have me backing Wake here this week are  listed  below...

Wake Forest (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) has covered the spread in its last 11 straight games against ranked opponents. Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS),  owns a tight 6.8 average margin of victory in its last 10 road ACC games dating back over the L/10 seasons.Wake Forest is 12-1 ATS with revenge L/2 seasons,( lost last Years meeting 48-37 on the road but covered) and go against what looks to me to be an over rated and still jelling Irish team that despite of being undefeated are just 1-2 ATS while losing the stats wars in 2 of 3  games this season .It must also be noted that the lucky catholic boys have not registered more than 400 yards in any of their three victories which all came  at home. Here on the road trouble could be brewing vs a Wake Forest side that can be explosive and competitive as was evident vs Boston College last time out. 

From a matchup persepctive  ( difference maker)  Wake Forest's rushing attack Im betting  will gouge  Notre Dame's wobbly defensive front. Wake Forest has gained 264 yards per game on the ground, while Notre Dame has allowed 107 rushing yards per game. 

***Notre Dame is the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to visit Wake Forest since the Demon Deacons pulled a September 1996 shocker by toppling No. 13 Northwestern. There was also a 1979 upset of No. 13 Auburn. Last season Wake Forestupset No.25 ranked NC State. 

NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 68-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in Game Four of the season, and Jimbo Fisher is 10-2 SU versus SEC opponents, including 4-0 SUATS away. The Aggies played Clemson tough in their first game of the season covering while making Clemson work for the win. Now here on the road it will be a lot tougher, but thanks to Alabamas pounding of opponents to this point in the season the price tag attached to them is high and there is value taking the points here behind a very well coached team.  TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. 

After consecutive  blowout wins against Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10), Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 596.3 yards per game. It's one of four offenses that rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing (Houston, Ohio State and Oklahoma State ) nd have the ability to make this close.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 42-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas A&M to cover 

Eastern Michigan is highly under rated and staunch defensive team that can give San Diego State some issues here. I know the Aztecs  pulled off  the upset behind a backup  QB last time out vs Arizona State, but now in a huge letdown situation , I expect SDState could find them selves getting frustrated by  a very physical MAC team, with a never say die attitude that went into Purdue and upset them in their 2nd game of the season, allowing them just 19 points . It must be noted that  Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS the last eight vs non conference opposition and  are also 2-0 SUATS all-time against MWC opponents.  

E MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (E MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 46-17 L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

A lot of top tier defensive numbers might sway a weekend warrior to bet this tilt under. But Im betting these two capable attacks will knock down each others top tier stopping numbers this week and leave them temporarily shattered. I know both teams have quality defences or so it seems thus far, but they will be tested by the likes of RB Bryce Love of Stanford and  QB Justin Herbert for Oregon . Stanford hung 49 points on the Ducks last season and are capable of a big output again, and the Ducks now with added fire power should be up to the task of doing some scoring of their own.

STANFORD in their L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 65.5 ppg scored.

OREGON in their L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.1 ppg scored. 

Oregon is 11-0 OVER at home coming off a game that went under the total by at least 10 points.

Play on the OVER 

After getting beaten up on by Alabama in their first game the Cards have tightened up their D, and have allowed a total of 24 points in their last two games both wins ( 14 ppg) .That formula for success looks to remain in place this week vs a Virginia team that scored 45 points in a win vs Ohio last week. HC  Mendenhall was not completely happy with the Cavs efforts because of sloppy play and turnovers, and will have his side primed to play a more staunch brand of defensive ball in this tilt. Im betting on both these scenarios to help keep this tilt on the low side of the Total. 

VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

Virginia has gone under 12 straight times  coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points which happened vs Ohio U last time out. 

Play UNDER 

Im not going to argue about who the better team is here, its obvious Clemson is a national contender while , Georgia Tech is not. However, it must be noted that Tech   behind  a one way running game and ability to control time of possession, have the ability to stick close enough for a cover here vs a Dabo Swinney team that consistently seems to do just enough to get a victory especially on the road where they have failed to cover 14 of their L/15 as away chalk of 7 or more points. With a revenge game on board vs Syracuse up next Clemson might not be full focused here, giving us an edge with a underdog that has cashed 6 straight with conference revenge. ( Clemson beat Tech last season 24-10 at home) last season.

Play on GTech to cover 

Both these teams according to my power rankings have not performed up tot heir charts. Yes, I know Louisville has won 2 row, with the only excusable loss coming to Alabama,   and Indiana 3 in a row.  But those wins by both teams have come  vs teams they were expected to beat, and Virginia despite of beating Ohio of the Mac last week in convincing fashion , are still not performing at an optimal level. After analysing  head to head strengths and weaknesses , Im sticking to my preseason assessments, that would make the Cardinal the superior team even here in enemy territory. 

Louisville is 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road when they failed to cover by at least seven points last game.

CFB home team (VIRGINIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 18-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Louisville to cover 

North Texas is off a huge win vs Arkansas last week, and the team as a whole after the wild celebration, and start to finish leave everything on the field type effort will now be in an emotional let down spot vs a Liberty team, that is famous for the amount of NFL players they have developed. It must be noted that North Texas are just  3-22 SU  off a SU win as a dog and a current run of 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS away under the same perimeters. Meanwhile, Flames HC Turner Gill is a perfect  5-0 ATS in his career as a underdog against opposition off a SU/ATS victory  and cover of 20 or more points which the young men from Denton achieved vs Arkansas last week. With Gill having 2 weeks to prepare for this tilt, Im betting he will have this young talented group ready to compete here on their own home field. LIBERTY is a perfect  12-0 ATS  in non-conference games since 1992.

Play on Liberty to cover 

The 2-0 Wolfpack  had their game against ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Cancelled last week because of Hurricane conditions.  Now they go on the road to face Doc Holliday’s Marshall , which is never easy task especially  for a rusty team that missed some practices . Note Marshall is defiant 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs and their L/6 tries vs ACC competition have not failed too cover with a 5-1-1 ATS mark.  Huntington will be rocking today so when you come a knocking take the points with the Thundering Herd. 

MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. NC STATE is 7-20 L/27 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

2-0 away teams in Game Three like NC State with a week off are just 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs  like Marshall are 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win.

Play on Marshall to cover 

Kansas is on a two game win streak, and Baylor was exposed last week in a 40-27 loss to a banged Duke team limping with numerous injuries. The Jayhawks continue to be under rated and disrespected because of a dismal long term record, but after annihilating back to back opponents, it sure looks like their on their way back to being competitive.Kansas is 12-4 SUATS  L/16  in games following consecutive wins, while the Bad News Bears’ have failed to cover 14 of their L/19  as favs.  

BAYLOR is 7-20 ATS L/27 against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Coastal Carolina is one of those teams I have circled to better the pundits expect, especially with HC  Joe Moglia on the sidelines. This coach is super intelligent and one of the best hidden secrets in the College game. They walloped their last two opponents UAB and Campbell by putting 47 and 58 points on the scoreboard and must not be underestimated vs a Ragin’ Cajuns side that is  ranked 107th on d in the nation and  from a betting perspective just  12-29-1 ATS mark at home in conference play, including 2-15-1 ATS when off a loss which is the case here as they are off a 56-10 loss to Miss State last week.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Oklahoma State was bypassed by most of the pundits last week in their game vs Boise State. I however, knew better, and recommend we bet on Gundy and company instead and I was right in my assessments .Now the Cowboys are getting a little to much love vs a Texas Tech team that is explosive offensively and capable of hanging with Oklahoma State , which they proved in a big DDwin vs a well balanced Houston side last week by a 63-49 count. Also I expect the Cowboys of Stillwater to be in a letdown situation after that huge win that saw them playing with chip on their proverbial shoulders. Note: The Cowboys have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD home chalk, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS  L6 as conference dogs of 10 points or more. 

Although Oklahoma State has a nine-game winning streak in the series, the matchup has produced some quality shootouts recently. The Cowboys just squeezed by Texas Tech 45-44 in Stillwater in 2016 and escaped Lubbock with a 41-34 victory a year ago.

Texas Tech is 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points.

 OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

The Washington Huskies are getting a lot of love from the lines makers here and not giving a lot of respect to the Arizona State Sun Devils. But it must be noted that the Huskies  have failed to cover 16 of their L/21 as PAC 12 Double digit  home chalk . Meanwhile, Arizona State has covered 6 of their L/7 as DD dogs. Hey I know the Sun Devis lost to San Diego State last week , as favs, but I'll forgive that effort as they were in a letdown situation after the physical win they notched the week before against Michigan state. Meanwhile, Washington is getting a lot of accolades from the pundits, but Im betting the sledding for the Huskies won't be easy in this spot after their exhausting physical win vs Utah last week.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in their the last twelve games against the Washington Huskies.

 WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games .

CFB Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off back to back destructions vs Kansas Jayhawks and the Ohio State Buckeyes and have given up a combined 107 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC might not inspire many bettors, but this team is explosive offensively and dangerous and more than capable of stopping Rutgers cold, and also putting a DD beating on them, even here on the road. The Bulls have averaged 39.7 ppg this season, and can match that output today vs a very bad Rutgers D that is allowing 38 points and 430.7 yards per game.

 The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 

RUTGERS is 0-6 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and  is 2-14 ATS L/16 in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game . 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Buffalo to cover