Free NFL Pick: Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Cowboys on 10/19 at AT&T Stadium, in Dallas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NFL football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NFL predictions like this Commanders Cowboys free pick.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys
(3-3) Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
Date: Oct 19, 2025
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
NFL Moneyline Odds: Commanders -128 | Cowboys +108 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Commanders -1.5 | Cowboys +1.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 55
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Gameday
The Washington Commanders roll into Arlington looking to bounce back from a one-point heartbreaker against the Chicago Bears. Sitting at 3-3 under head coach Dan Quinn, Washington’s been competitive all season but needs to find more consistency on the road (1-2).
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are hungry for a rebound after falling just short in Carolina.
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s group sits at 2-3-1 and remains undefeated at home (1-0-1), giving them a chance to reset against a divisional foe.
This rivalry rarely disappoints. The Commanders took the last meeting at AT&T Stadium 23-19 in January 2025, snapping a multi-year home win streak for Dallas. Both teams know the stakes — and both need this one badly.
Weather won’t be a factor under the roof in Arlington, where FOX will broadcast this NFC East clash at 4:25 PM ET.
Week 7, Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys — buckle in, because this one could swing either way.
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Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers see this matchup as nearly dead even. Washington enters as slight -129 favorites, with Dallas close behind at +108.
The spread sits at Commanders -1.5, while the total points line is a lofty 55.0 — signaling expectations for fireworks.
The Commanders have been unpredictable lately, alternating wins and losses over their last five. They crushed the Chargers 27-10 in Week 5 but followed that up with a frustrating 25-24 loss to Chicago.
Dallas has been in a similar boat — high-powered one week, flat the next.
A big win over the Jets (37-22) showed their potential, but recent losses to the Panthers and Bears exposed defensive cracks. Both squads have shown flashes; now it’s about finishing games.
Cowboys Stats
Dak Prescott continues to drive the Cowboys’ offense with precision and poise. His 1,617 passing yards rank second in the NFL, and his 13 touchdowns tie him for second as well. That balance comes courtesy of a productive ground game — Javonte Williams has churned out 476 rushing yards, good for fourth in the league.
Defensively, Dallas remains dangerous when aggressive. They rank third in the NFL with 52 sacks and boast 13 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries.
Still, their yardage allowed (6,039) ranks 28th, showing they’ve been bent — sometimes broken — by explosive plays.
Recent results paint the full picture. Wins over the Jets and a strong offensive showing in Week 4 highlight their firepower, but defensive lapses in tight losses to Carolina and Chicago continue to hold them back.
Injuries could again play a role. CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin are both questionable, while defensive starters Malik Hooker and Payton Turner may sit.
The Cowboys’ depth will be tested once more.
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Commanders Stats
Washington’s season has been a rollercoaster, but Jayden Daniels continues to look like the real deal. The rookie dual-threat quarterback has thrown for 875 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 44 rushing yards per game.
His composure under pressure has given the Commanders life in every matchup.
Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt has quietly been one of the NFC’s most efficient backs, rushing for 344 yards and four scores. Wideout Deebo Samuel Sr. has found his groove as well, tallying 315 yards and three touchdowns to lead the receiving corps.
On defense, Washington ranks seventh in sacks (43 last season) and fifth in fumble recoveries (10). They’ve also forced key turnovers in clutch moments — but their overall yardage allowed (5,558 last year) shows room for improvement.
Injuries remain an issue. Jonathan Jones and Austin Ekeler are both on injured reserve, while Terry McLaurin and Dorance Armstrong are questionable.
That means more pressure on Daniels to create — and more responsibility on the defense to hold up without key depth pieces.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys QB Matchup
Dak Prescott continues to operate at a high level. Through six games, he’s averaging 278.8 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns against just three picks. His leadership and accuracy keep Dallas competitive even when the run game sputters.
Prescott’s control at the line and ability to extend plays with his legs remain key to the Cowboys’ success.
On the other side, Jayden Daniels brings the energy and unpredictability of a dual-threat quarterback. Averaging 218.8 passing yards and 44 rushing yards per game, Daniels has accounted for eight total touchdowns with only one interception.
His athleticism forces defenses to stay honest, and his growing comfort in the system is evident week-to-week.
Projected stat lines have Prescott near 285 yards and two touchdowns, with Daniels around 240 total yards and one score. The difference could come down to turnovers and who handles late-game pressure better inside the division spotlight.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys bottom line: Division games rarely follow logic, but I think the Commanders hang around early before the Cowboys’ pass rush and efficiency kick in.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games as favorites.
- They have gone over the total in 6 of their last 10 games as favorites.
- The Commanders have won 6 of their last 7 games when favored.
- Also, the Cowboys have covered the spread in their last 3 games as underdogs.
- They have gone over the total in their last 3 games after a loss.
- Additionally, the Cowboys have gone over the total in 7 of their last 10 games as underdogs.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction: Commanders -1.5
Here is my Cowboys Commanders free pick. The Washington Commanders have been rock solid when favored, winning six of their last seven games outright. They’ve also covered the spread in nine of their last ten as favorites, showing a level of consistency that bettors can trust.
Washington is 10-4 straight up in its last fourteen games and 4-2 straight up in its last six played in October, a sign this team performs well as the season settles in.
The Dallas Cowboys, on the other hand, have shown occasional strength against the spread as underdogs, but their defensive issues remain concerning.
They ranked 28th in both opponent scoring and yards allowed last season, often getting exposed by teams with balanced offensive attacks.
That defensive weakness is tough to overlook against a Washington team that thrives on rhythm and execution on both sides of the ball.
Washington’s combination of efficient quarterback play and a defense capable of controlling field position gives them a clear edge. With home-field advantage and a strong track record in similar spots, they should be able to dictate tempo throughout the game.
Given Washington’s dominant trends as favorites and their October success, the Commanders’ moneyline (-129) is the sharp side here.
The Commanders’ recent form, paired with the Cowboys’ ongoing defensive lapses, makes Washington the more dependable choice to grab another win.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
clock in 🗂️ pic.twitter.com/TQEY6HMFOW
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) October 15, 2025
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