Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Dolphins vs. Commanders Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders free NFL Week 13 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Commanders on Sunday, December 3rd at the FedEx Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Washington matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
(8-3) Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders (4-8)
Date: Sunday, December 3rd
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: FedEx Field, Landover MD
NFL Week 13 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami -9.5 | Washington +9.5
Week 13 NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami -457 | Washington +341
NFL Betting Total: O/U 49.5
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The Dolphins and Commanders did not have any head-to-head matchups last season.
But over the last three times playing each other, the Dolphins have a record of 2-1. The Dolphins also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 29 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
Examining the historical meetings between these two teams reveals that the Dolphins/Washington rivalry has unfolded on 15 occasions, it also includes 2 postseason contests.
In this series, the Dolphins emerged victorious in 9 games, while the Commanders secured 6 wins.
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Miami Dolphins
Miami is currently 1st in the AFC-East this season, with an overall record of 8-3. In games outside the conference, they are 2-1 and in AFC games, they’ve gone 6-2.
Taking a look at the Dolphins’ scoring margin this season, it is currently at +8. This has resulted in an ATS record of 7-4.
In the Dolphins’ win over the Jets, the Dolphins controlled the time of possession at 35:41 to 24:19 for the Jets. The Dolphins’ offense averaged 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and finished with a total of 395 yards.
Defensively, they gave up 159 yards of offense to the Jets.
Going into the game, Miami was favored by 9.5 and went on to cover the spread. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 243 yards while completing 70% of his passes and throwing for 243. Tagovailoa threw for one touchdown.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Against the Jets, the Dolphins ran the ball 37 times, with Raheem Mostert as the top rusher, gaining 94 yards. Tua attempted 30 passes, amassing 243 yards and a passer rating of 77.
The Miami offense is currently ranked 2nd in the league, averaging 30.8 points per contest.
On defense, the Dolphins come into the game ranked 8th in tackles for loss and 3rd in sacks. Opponents are scoring 22.8 points per game vs. them along with an average of 305.2 yards per contest.
Washington Commanders
Throughout this season, the Commanders have a record of 4-8, which positions them at 4th in the NFC-East. Their performance reflects a 3-5 record as underdogs and 1-3 when they are favored.
The Commanders have a 5-6-1 ATS record so far.
As we enter week 13, their scoring margin per game is -8.7.
In the Commanders’ loss to the Cowboys, the Commanders finished with 376 yards of offense compared to the Cowboys’ 431.
The Cowboys ran the ball 18 times for 100 yards and averaged 10.3 yards per passing attempt for 331 yards. Washington’s 35 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 13 point underdogs.
Even though Sam Howell did not throw for a touchdown, he ran for one score and threw for 300 yards on 44 attempts.
Howell in my opinion is NOT the reason the Commanders find themselves struggling this season. “Dude can ball!” I thought he played relatively mistake-free ball until that last drive late in the 4th ended with the pick 6 by DaRon Bland.
He certainly can sling it. 40+ passes in 6+ games.
Washington Commanders Stats
Offensively, Sam Howell finished with 300 passing yards while completing 63% of his passes. On the ground, the Commanders rushed the ball 27 times for 108 yards.
The team converted 7 of 15 third-down opportunities.
Offensively, the Commanders have an average of 20.5 points per game, which is 17th in the NFL.
Washington is 29th in points allowed defensively. So far, their opponents are putting up an average of 29.2 points per game, accumulating 377.7 yards per contest.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Commanders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Commanders have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Commanders’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Commanders Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -295 | -457 | -6.5 | -9.5 |
| Commanders | +240 | +341 | +6.5 | +9.5 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Washington +9.5
Even though the Dolphins are favored to pick up the win, I don’t like how their defense finished their last game.
I see the Commanders covering the spread as 9.5-point HOME underdogs.
Whenever you’re going to give me +9.5 points at home I generally will have a long thought about it, and usually end up taking it.
The analysis we’ve been running for this game has the Dolphins and Commanders finishing with a combined 45 points.
With the over/under line sitting at 49.5, I’m getting a bet down on the under.
Here are some key NFL gambling trends that reinforce my confidence in my NFL picks for this matchup. The Dolphins have struggled on the road, with a 3-8 SU record in their last 11 away games. Additionally, they are 2-4 ATS when facing NFC opponents. Miami has also had a tough time in December, winning just one of their last 5.
Furthermore, the trend leans towards the UNDER, with the total going UNDER in 14 of Miami’s last 17 games against NFC East opponents and in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games against the Dolphins. The Commanders have also seen the total go UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games against AFC teams.
These trends suggest a potential advantage for my bets. Let’s hope they pay off.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Congrats to London Fletcher on being named a modern-era semifinalist for the @ProFootballHOF Class of 2024!
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) November 28, 2023
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