Free NFL Pick: Chargers vs. Dolphins Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Dolphins on 10/12 at Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NFL football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NFL predictions like this Chargers Dolphins free pick.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins
(3-2) Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins (1-4)
Date: Oct 12, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
NFL Moneyline Odds: Chargers -220 | Dolphins +182 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Chargers -4.5 | Dolphins +4.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 43.5
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Chargers vs. Dolphins Gameday
As Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season arrives, the Los Angeles Chargers head to Hard Rock Stadium to battle the Miami Dolphins. The game kicks off October 12th on CBS, with clear skies and mild temperatures setting the stage for a clean, fast-paced contest.
The Chargers, under head coach Jim Harbaugh, come in with a 3-2 record and a perfect 3-0 mark within their division. However, they’ve dropped back-to-back games to Washington and the Giants, showing signs of inconsistency.
Even so, their early-season form keeps them very much in the AFC mix.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins sit at 1-4 under Mike McDaniel and are eager to spark a turnaround.
Their lone win came against the Jets in Week 4, and while they’ve struggled overall, their 1-1 home record suggests they’re capable of responding in front of the Miami crowd.
Week 6 — Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins — should deliver a high-energy matchup in South Florida.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Last 5
The oddsmakers favor Los Angeles on the road. The Chargers open as -221 moneyline favorites, while the Dolphins are listed at +184. The 4.5-point spread shows moderate confidence in L.A., with a total of 43.5 hinting at a game balanced between explosive plays and defensive stops.
Recently, the Chargers have been unpredictable. They began hot with three wins — including one over Kansas City — before stalling with consecutive losses to the Giants and Commanders.
Consequently, this week becomes a test of resilience for a team still trying to find its midseason rhythm.
Conversely, Miami’s 1-4 record doesn’t tell the full story. They’ve shown flashes of cohesion, particularly in their lone victory over the Jets.
At home, they’ll look to steady the ship and challenge the Chargers behind their passing game and opportunistic defense.
Dolphins Stats
The Dolphins continue to search for balance entering Week 6. Last season, they ranked 21st in scoring (345 points) and 15th in passing yards (3,737), showing solid but unspectacular offensive production. Fortunately, the weather should be perfect for Tua Tagovailoa and company to air it out.
Defensively, Miami remains the team’s backbone. They ranked 10th in opponent scoring (364 points allowed) and fourth in total defense, giving up just 5,344 yards.
That’s the kind of steady defense capable of keeping games within reach, even when the offense sputters.
However, recent results have been rough. The Dolphins have dropped four of their last five, including a 27-24 heartbreaker to Carolina.
Still, Tua Tagovailoa showed poise in that loss, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns while keeping Miami competitive until the end.
Injuries remain a thorn in Miami’s side. Tyreek Hill and Artie Burns are both out for the year, hurting their explosiveness.
Even so, Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller have stepped up, giving Tua reliable targets and helping the Dolphins stay afloat offensively.
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Chargers Stats
The Los Angeles Chargers continue to bring firepower on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they’ve scored 402 points (11th in the league), with 3,629 passing yards (19th) and 1,882 rushing yards (17th).
Their 40.3% third-down conversion rate keeps drives alive and defenses guessing.
Defensively, this unit is elite. They’ve surrendered just 301 points — best in the NFL — while posting 46 sacks (5th) and 15 interceptions (also 5th). They’ve even recovered six fumbles (9th), proving this defense is built to create chaos.
Still, the Chargers have stumbled recently. After early-season wins over Denver and Vegas, they’ve dropped two straight, falling 27-10 to Washington and 21-18 to the Giants. Even with those losses, Justin Herbert remains the engine that makes this offense go.
He’s thrown for 1,229 yards and eight touchdowns, though turnovers have occasionally stalled momentum.
Injuries add another wrinkle. Khalil Mack, Denzel Perryman, and Omarion Hampton are out, leaving gaps in both the pass rush and run defense.
Nevertheless, with Herbert under center and a disciplined defensive unit, the Chargers have the tools to rebound in Miami.
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Chargers vs. Dolphins QB Matchup
Tua Tagovailoa remains the focal point of Miami’s offense. Through five games, he’s thrown for 1,008 yards and 10 touchdowns, ranking near the league’s top tier in scoring efficiency. Though he’s tossed four interceptions, Tua’s rhythm passing and accuracy keep this offense dangerous when he’s protected.
In this matchup, Tagovailoa is projected for 221 passing yards and roughly 1.7 touchdowns. Playing at home in ideal weather should help him find his timing early, particularly on quick strikes to Waddle and Waller.
Justin Herbert, meanwhile, continues to showcase elite-level consistency. He’s totaled 1,229 yards and eight touchdowns in five starts, ranking among the league leaders in both categories. His ability to extend plays — adding over 30 rushing yards per game — keeps defenses guessing.
For Sunday, Herbert projects for about 255 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. Expect him to challenge Miami’s secondary with deep shots and tempo drives.
If he gets protection, the Chargers’ offense will be tough to stop.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins bottom line: the Chargers’ balanced offense and defensive dominance make them a tough side to bet against.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Football Betting Trends
- The Chargers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 away games.
- They are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as favorites.
- The Chargers have gone over the total in 4 of their last 4 games with totals set at 42 or less.
- Also, the Dolphins have hit the over in all of their last 6 home games.
- They are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 home games.
- Additionally, the Dolphins are 3-1 on the over as underdogs in their last 4.
Chargers vs Dolphins Prediction: Over 43.5
Here’s our Chargers Dolphins free pick. With the total set at 43.5, all signs point toward another high-scoring affair in Miami. The Chargers have been a steady over team in games with low totals, cashing the over in their last four matchups when the number was set at 42 or less.
That trend highlights their ability to turn modest expectations into shootouts.
Likewise, the Dolphins have been an over machine at home. The total has gone OVER in eight straight at Hard Rock Stadium and in five of their last six overall. Even more, Miami is 4-1 to the over in its last five against AFC opponents — proving that when they face familiar conference foes, points tend to come in bunches.
With both offenses capable of explosive drives and quick scores, this matchup has all the makings of another Miami shootout.
Additionally, Miami’s home-field comfort and tempo-driven attack should test a Chargers defense that’s been inconsistent on the road.
Meanwhile, Justin Herbert and company have shown they can trade punches with any offense in the league when they’re in rhythm.
Given the overlapping over trends and both teams’ offensive profiles, the over 43.5 is the smart play here.
I think we’ll see fireworks in Miami as both squads push this total beyond the number.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Making his presence known 👊 pic.twitter.com/nzj8chILzB
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 7, 2025
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