Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Colts vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots free NFL Week 10 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Patriots on Sunday, November 12th at the Deutsche Bank Park. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(4-5) Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (2-7)
Date: Sunday, November 12th
Time: 9:30 ET
Venue: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt, Germany
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Indianapolis -1 | New England +1
Week 10 NFL Moneyline Odds: Indianapolis -122 | New England -102
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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In the game last year, Judon recorded three of the Patriots’ nine sacks, Mac Jones threw one touchdown pass, and Nick Folk contributed with four field goals to secure the victory for New England.
The Colts and Patriots have faced off 83 times (including five postseason matchups), with the Colts winning 30 games and the Patriots claiming victory in 53.
In the only head to head matchup between the teams last season, the Patriots won by a score of 26-3 (11/6/22). In their only head-to-head matchup, the team’s scored 29 points which fell below the over/under line of 40.
The Patriots covered the spread in last year’s matchup. In last year’s win, the Patriots finished with 203 of total offense, with 70 coming in the running game and 133 through the air.
On the other side, the Colts ended the game with 121 of offense.
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Indianapolis Colts
This season, the Colts currently hold an overall record of 4-5, placing them 3rd in the AFC-South. They’ve achieved this record with a 3-5 record as underdogs and 1-0 when favored.
The Colts’ current scoring margin stands at -1.1, which has them coming in with a 5-4 ATS record.
After trailing by 17 at halftime, the Colts put together a good second-half and ended up beating the Panthers. Offensively, the Colts racked up 198 yards of total offense while going 4/13 on third down.
On the other end, the Panthers ran for 138 and threw for 137. Going into the game, Indianapolis was favored by 1.5 and went on to cover the spread. Gardner Minshew threw for 127 yards while completing 65% of his passes and throwing for 127.
Minshew threw for one touchdown.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
Against the Panthers’ defense, Gardner Minshew led the way with 127 passing yards and a completion rate of 65%. On the ground, the Colts ran the ball 30 times for 78 yards. The team had 4 third-down conversions (30.8%).
The Colts come in with an average of 25.8 points per game which is 7th in the NFL.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts give up an average of 235.0 passing yards and 125.6 rushing yards per game. Looking at their sack numbers, Indianapolis is currently ranked 7th in the league.
So far, they are giving up 26.9 points per game and 360.6 yards.
New England Patriots
Entering week 10, New England is positioned 4th in the AFC-East with a 2-7 record. In the AFC, they are currently in 16th place. In terms of the spread, the Patriots hold a record of 2-7.
This has come on an average scoring margin of -10.3.
In their defeat against the Commanders, New England had a slow start and failed to score in the first quarter. The Patriots concluded the game with 327 yards on offense, while allowing 432 on defense.
New England also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 2.5 point favorites. Mac Jones threw for 220 yards while completing 54% of his passes and throwing for 220. Jones threw for one touchdown.
New England Patriots Stats
New England’s offense produced a total of 327 yards against the Commanders. When it came to third downs, the Patriots had a conversion rate of 25%.
The leading rusher for the Patriots was Rhamondre Stevenson with 87 yards, and Mac Jones contributed 220 passing yards.
Regarding their offense, the Patriots have an average 15 points per game, which places them 31st in the NFL.
On the defensive front, the Patriots currently hold the 13th position in tackles for loss and rank 13th in sacks. Opponents are averaging 25.3 points and 333.4 yards per game against them.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Colts are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Colts are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Colts’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Colts vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | +170 | -121 | +5 | -1 |
| Patriots | -202 | -102 | -5 | +1 |
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +1
Wrong team favored. The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS win.
After struggling to move the ball in the passing game against Carolina, I’m not expecting much from Indianapolis this week. This is why I’m leaning towards New England as 1-point underdogs.
Surprisingly they’re a top 5 team in the NFL when it comes to the Red Zone. This is at least making them relevant in games they should win. As long as Mac Jones holds onto the football.
This season, Indianapolis’ margin against their over/under lines currently sits at +9.5. Given the over/under of 43.5, we expect this game to fall short of expectations, resulting in a combined total of 41 points.
My model has this one just coming in UNDER the posted total. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England’s last 8.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
What does Mac think about travelling to Germany?
Mac Jones joins @WEEI to discuss Week 9 and the upcoming trip to Germany: https://t.co/qiTLy1tbXz pic.twitter.com/ZCX7NfkAk7
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 7, 2023
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