Free NFL Pick: Cowboys vs. Colts Odds
Looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Cowboys taking on the Colts on 11/8 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Cowboys Colts matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts
Cowboys -5.5 | Colts +5.5Here’s why I’m backing an Indianapolis ATS bet below in my Cowboys Colts free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Cowboys vs. Colts Gameday
The Dallas Cowboys visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 8, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium. This Week 9 matchup kicks off at 1 PM ET on FOX, with both teams desperately needing a victory.
Dallas enters 3-5 under Brian Schottenheimer. The Cowboys have been dangerous offensively but haven’t found enough consistency to turn close games into wins.
Dallas keeps putting points on the board, then asking its defense to remember what it’s paid to do.
The Cowboys are coming off another painful defeat.
Indianapolis sits at 2-6 under Shane Steichen. The Colts have dropped three straight, leaving them with little room for another mistake in the AFC South.
Lucas Oil Stadium provides a familiar setting.
Schottenheimer has Dak Prescott running the offense, while Steichen continues with Daniel Jones. Both quarterbacks face pressure to deliver a more complete performance.
Neither team can afford another ugly Sunday.
Dallas needs to stop giving away opportunities, and Indianapolis must improve its offensive execution. There are enough weaknesses on both sides to make this an interesting matchup, even if neither team is frightening the playoff contenders.
It’s Week 9, Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts, hopefully we get a great matchup.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Previous Games
Dallas opened at -263 on the moneyline, with Indianapolis at +216. The Cowboys are favored by 5.5 points, while the Colts receive +5.5. The total is 51.5.
The Cowboys lost 33-30 in overtime to Arizona after surrendering a late lead. They previously defeated Philadelphia 38-21 but lost to Green Bay 23-13 and Tampa Bay 24-16.
Indianapolis suffered a 42-7 defeat against Jacksonville. The Colts also lost to Minnesota 16-10 and Tennessee 26-20, following an earlier 30-13 victory over Washington.
Recent results haven’t been encouraging for either team.
Dallas won the last meeting 54-19 in December 2022. The Cowboys also crushed Indianapolis 42-7 in 2014, although the Colts earned a 23-0 shutout victory in 2018.
Dallas leads the regular-season series 11-6.
The Cowboys have won four of the last five meetings. That history favors Dallas, but the current matchup involves two teams dealing with entirely different problems.
Indianapolis has another chance to respond at home.
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Colts Stats From Last Week
Indianapolis averages 20.1 points and 291.1 total yards per game. The Colts have struggled to generate consistent offense, particularly when falling behind early.
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 610 yards and eight TDs.
Keenan Allen has provided an experienced receiving option, while Josh Downs leads the team with 330 receiving yards. Indianapolis needs more production from its passing attack to complement Taylor.
Defensively, the Colts allow 27.8 points per game. Their inability to consistently prevent scoring drives has placed additional pressure on an already struggling offense.
Turnovers have been particularly costly.
Indianapolis has a minus-11 turnover differential, the worst in the NFL. Giving opponents additional possessions has made competitive games considerably more difficult.
The Colts need a cleaner performance.
Alec Pierce and Cam Taylor-Britt remain on injured reserve. Their absence limits Indianapolis’ depth, while the available players must improve their execution against Dallas.
Cowboys Stats From Last Week
Dallas averages 27.4 points and 342 total yards per game. The Cowboys have accumulated 2,736 offensive yards through eight contests, with 1,983 coming through the air.
CeeDee Lamb leads the receiving corps with 709 yards and six TDs.
Javonte Williams has contributed 528 rushing yards and eight TDs. His physical running provides balance when opposing defenses focus on Dallas’ passing attack.
The Cowboys allow 385.4 yards and 26.6 points per game. Their defensive struggles have repeatedly undermined otherwise productive offensive performances.
Dallas has surrendered 1,222 rushing yards.
That weakness has made controlling games difficult, especially when opponents establish an effective rushing attack. Schottenheimer needs more dependable defensive execution rather than another shootout.
Jake Ferguson and KaVontae Turpin missed Thursday’s practice, while George Pickens was limited. Their availability could affect Dallas’ offensive options.
The Cowboys have enough talent to win games. The problem is getting their offense and defense to deliver on the same afternoon.
Cowboys vs. Colts QB Matchup
Dak Prescott has thrown for 2,046 yards and 14 TDs through eight games. He has five interceptions while completing 65.2% of his passes.
Prescott remains Dallas’ most important offensive player.
His accuracy and experience allow the Cowboys to attack different coverage schemes. Indianapolis must create pressure without leaving its secondary vulnerable to big plays.
Prescott has thrown a TD pass in every game this season. That consistency gives Dallas a dangerous weapon when its offense finds a rhythm.
The Colts need to disrupt his timing.
Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,542 yards, five TDs and nine interceptions. His 60.5% completion rate reflects an offense struggling to generate dependable production.
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Jones completed 19 passes for 144 yards against Jacksonville. He threw one TD and two interceptions before leaving the game late.
Steichen is sticking with Jones as his starter. The quarterback must improve his decision-making, particularly when facing pressure.
Jones can extend plays with his legs.
That mobility helps Indianapolis escape difficult situations, although it doesn’t excuse careless throws. The Colts cannot afford another afternoon filled with turnovers.
Prescott has been the more productive passer, but Jones has an opportunity to improve against a struggling defense. Both quarterbacks need better support from their teammates.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts bottom line: Dallas owns the more productive passing attack, but Indianapolis must protect the football and execute consistently to challenge the Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Football Betting Trends
- Dallas has gone 7-2-1 against the total in their last 10 games as favorites during the regular season.
- Plus, in their previous 14 regular-season games, the Cowboys have a 78.6% success rate on the over/under.
- When playing away, Dallas has hit the over in 5 of their last 7 regular-season games.
- Indianapolis has hit the over in 5 of their last 7 games as underdogs in the regular season.
- Also, the Colts have a 71.4% success rate on the over/under after a loss in their recent 7 regular-season games.
- In their last 9 regular-season games, the Colts have gone 6-3 against the total.
Cowboys Colts Free Pick: Colts +5.5
Here is my Cowboys Colts free pick: I’m playing Indianapolis Colts +5.5. Dallas is favored by nearly a touchdown despite having just three wins, and that’s a generous amount of respect for a team that keeps finding creative ways to lose. I’m not buying the Cowboys at this price.
Indianapolis has a legitimate opportunity to establish Jonathan Taylor early against a vulnerable Dallas run defense. A steady rushing attack can reduce the number of possessions and keep this game within one score.
Dallas has the offensive talent to win, but covering 5.5 points requires a level of defensive reliability it hasn’t earned.
The Colts also have the benefit of playing indoors, where they can operate without weather disrupting their offensive plan. A competitive first half would put considerable pressure on Dallas to play a clean second half, something the Cowboys haven’t consistently managed.
I’m not betting on Indianapolis suddenly becoming a powerhouse. I’m betting against Dallas getting nearly six points of credit it hasn’t deserved. Give me Indianapolis Colts +5.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Indianapolis Colts on X
9️⃣5️⃣ https://t.co/3xGEYsgBMi
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 3, 2026
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