Free AFC Championship Prediction: Bengals vs. Chiefs NFL Odds
Looking for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs Free Conference Championship picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bengals taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, January 29th at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship game. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long, including all NFL playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Cincinnati Kansas City playoff matchup.
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NFL Handicapping Analysis: 2023 AFC Conference Championship – Bengals vs. Kansas City
(14-4) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-3)
Date: Sunday, January 29th
Time: 6:30 PM EST
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
NFL Conference Championship ATS Betting Lines: Bengals -1.0 | Chiefs +1.0 (Bet Now!)
AFC Championship Money Line Odds: Bengals -115 | Chiefs -105
Today’s 2023 AFC Championship NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.0
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At this point, we are down to the final four now after an insane weekend in the NFL. Every game was intense and fun to watch including yesterday’s defensive battle between the Cowboys and 49ers.
Firstly, the Bengals played an absolutely perfect game against the Bills in the snow of Buffalo and deserve the love they’re getting, including from the books who have now shuffled the line in favor of them.
AFC Championship Early Odds
So as to entice the early action, Vegas did their best to get the line up quick. It opened in some places at +2.5 for Cincinnati and it is now -1.0, and -115 on the money line.
I assume the public likes the Bengals for two main reasons, they carved the Bills D which is far better than the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes is going to play with a high ankle sprain. Two very valid reasons.
To begin with, the Chiefs have a ton of flaws even before the injury to Mahomes, which scares me if I’m a Chiefs backer this weekend. It has to be noted, in my opinion, the Jags covered with ease and might have won the game had it not been for the Agnew fumble.
Mahomes Magic In Doubt
The prowess of Mahomes and the Chiefs offence is largely predicated on his ability to extend plays while their receivers are getting open. Notwithstanding, of course this will not be the case Sunday, because even he, as tough of an SOB as he is, won’t be able to be as mobile.
So, without further ado let’s dive into this matchup and see how it breaks down and what the Chiefs can do to overcome the injury to their franchise quarterback.
Cincinnati Bengals
Of course, (LOL) I was always on the Bengals over the Bills train throughout the week even with the strange line movement. In truth, I did not however think the Bengals would just completely dismantle the Bills in their own barn in the snow.
The Bengals truly played a perfect game, their wasn’t a single phase of the game where they made any big mistakes, nothing flukey happened in their favor and there weren’t any game changing flags thrown.
Joey Brrr
Also, it has to be the understatement of the year, but Joe Burrow is just so clutch. Nothing ever seems to rattle this dude and it’s really fun to watch and warrants all the “Brady 2.0” talk. He makes such great decisions in the biggest spots.
Moreover, to walk into Buffalo in those conditions to me just makes him an even more established quarterback than Josh Allen at this point.
Bengals Offensive Line
This has been a huge talking point surrounding the Bengals for two straight years and deservedly so. Hardly any of their starters are in and yet still held up fine against a pretty good Bills pass rush.
Kansas City Chiefs
As I have noted, the Chiefs offence is unquestionably amazing, it does not matter how good you are on defense, they are going to go out there and get theirs. It’s just that simple.
The problem is their historically good offence covers up some serious issues the rest of the roster has and I fear that Mahomes’ injury is going to shine a light on those this weekend. So far, their special teams especially defending kick returns is horrendous, and returning them isn’t much better.
Chiefs D
Also, what concerns me even more however is their defense and if you’ve read my Chiefs content this season you know what a critic I have been.
It isn’t all bad necessarily, in fact they score sacks on opposing QB’s pretty often, good for 5th in terms of percentage which should concern Bengals fans considering their big weakness is protecting Burrow.
At any rate, the problem stems from the fact that after the Honey Badger left this off-season, they now rely on too many young guys including rookie McDuffie to stop the bleeding in the pass game and as a result their numbers in that phase are abysmal, far worse than Buffalo’s who Joe Burrow and company just absolutely carved.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs NFL Betting Trends:
- Altogether, Cincinnati are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Also, Cincinnati are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
- Cincinnati are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas City.
- So far, Cincinnati are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Kansas City.
- Kansas City are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
- Also, Kansas City are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City’s last 14 games against Cincinnati.
- Lastly, Kansas City are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.
Free Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Prediction: Bengals ML -115
Another key point, the Chiefs do not have a DB in their arsenal who can stay stride for stride with any of the Bengals receivers. Chase, Higgins and Boyd is probably the best core of pass catchers in the NFL.
Because I’m a helluva nice guy, I cannot in good faith advise you to bet the Chiefs, even with a healthy Mahomes they have struggled to cover spreads for the last two seasons because of their weaknesses when he is not on the field.
Mahomes Injury X-Factor
All in all, due to the fact Mahomes has the high ankle sprain, this creates just far too much of a concern for me.
However, it’s still early on this line so I will monitor it and update this article as needed.
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