Free NFL Week 14 Pick: Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL Week 14 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, December 10th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 14 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 14
(6-6) Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Date: Sunday, December 10th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL Week 14 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Buffalo +2.5 | Kansas City -2.5
Week 14 NFL Moneyline Odds: Buffalo +120 | Kansas City -145
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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If you watched the Chiefs / Packers game last week you probably have that feeling like I do that you feel just a little bit sorry for the visiting Bills this week. They could be in for a 100% focused and angry Chiefs team, who will be feeling like they let one slip away at Lambeau.
The Bills and Chiefs faced off one time last season with the Bills picking up a 24-20 win. With their combined 44, the Bills and Chiefs fell short of the over/under line of 54.5.
The Bills covered the spread in this matchup.
Offensively, the Bills finished with 443 total yards with 318 coming in the passing game and 125 on the ground.
The Chiefs finished with 387 yards of offense in the loss.
Here’s their last 5 matchups. 24-20 Bills (2022), 42-36 Chiefs (2022), 38-20 Bills (2021), 38-24 Chiefs (2021), 26-17 Chiefs (2020). 3-2 Chiefs H2H L5.
Interested in the history between these two teams? The Bills and Chiefs have faced off 53 times, including 5 playoff matchups.
Buffalo have come out with wins in 28 of those games, while the Chiefs have won 24, with one game ending in a tie.
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Buffalo Bills
As the Bills travel to take on the Chiefs, they are looking to snap their three game losing streak on the road. Overall, the Bills are 6-6 and 1-4 on the road.
In the AFC-East, they are in 2nd place and 11th in the AFC. The Bills hold a 4-8 record against the spread. As we approach week 14, their scoring margin stands at +8.4 per game.
The Bills have allowed 24 or more points in each of their last 5 losses. This is NOT the 2021, or 2022 Buffalo Bills, and it seems their early season injuries are catching up with them.
Defensively, the Bills gave up 378 yards of total offense to the Eagles in a 37-34 loss.
The Eagles ran the ball for 185 yards while throwing for 193. On offense, the Bills went 13/22 on 3rd down and finished with 505 yards of total offense. Buffalo’s 3 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 2.5 point underdogs.
Quarterback Josh Allen led the Bills in both rushing and passing, with 81 yards on the ground and 339 through air.
Allen ran for two scores and threw for two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills Stats
In their matchup against the Eagles, the Bills ran the ball 40 times, with Allen emerging as the top rusher with 81 yards. In the passing game, Josh Allen finished with 51 passes, resulting in 339 yards and a passer rating of 82.
On offense, the Bills are currently averaging 27.3 points per game, ranking them 5th in the NFL.
Looking at Buffalo’s defense, they currently stand 5th in points allowed.
Opponents have been averaging 18.9 points per game and 319.9 yards per contest against them.
Kansas City Chiefs
So far this season, the Chiefs are an above .500 team at home at 4-2.
Heading into week 14, they are 1st in the AFC-West on an overall record of 8-4. On the road, Kansas City has gone 4-2 thus far. The current scoring margin for the Chiefs’ is +5.6, and this has contributed to their ATS record of 7-5.
Even though the Chiefs’ did a good job moving the ball on offense, racking up 25 first-downs, they still lost the Packers.
Overall, the Chiefs finished with 337 yards of offense. On the other side, the Packers rushed for 129 and threw for 253 yards. Kansas City also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 5.5 point favorites.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 210 yards while completing 63% of his passes and throwing for 210. Mahomes threw for one touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Looking at their performance on offense, Mahomes threw for 210 yards while completing 63% of his passes. On the ground, the Chiefs rushed the ball 25 times for 148 yards.
The team’s third-down performance stood at 7/11.
At 22.9 points per contest, the Kansas City offense is 11th in the league.
In terms of turnovers, the Kansas City defense has 14 takeaways, which is 9th in the NFL. Overall, they are giving up 17.3 points per game and 297.7 yards.
Problem is vs. the Packers I’m not sure which Chiefs defense showed up. They were not “in it to win it” so to speak, and allowed a whopping 382 yards and forced zero turnovers. They’ll need more against the Bills.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bills are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Bills are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bills’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Bills vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | +126 | +120 | +3 | +2.5 |
| Chiefs | -148 | -145 | -3 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 14 NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo +2.5
This has the feel of a playoff game for me.
The Bills have struggled on the road, with a 1-4 record in recent seasons, but they aim to change that this week. On the other hand, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 3-2 record at home, showing they can be beaten in front of their fans. Something has to give!
The Bills – plain and simple – have to win! I’m banking on the fact they come in rested, feeling healthy, and had an extra week to game plan how to stop Mahomes – Kelce – Pacheco & now… Rice.
As for the Chiefs, they would like to win, but their spot in the AFC West is more secure than the Bills’ is in the AFC playoff chase. (They are of course looking up at the Dolphins in East)
The Bills need a pass rush this week, and they need to get off the field on 3rd down, AND the big one, they need to control the time of possession, and keep Mahomes off the field. I think they can. Their backs are against the wall. Watch Josh Allen have his best game of the season.
I’m favoring Buffalo as 2.5-point underdogs in this one.
On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 47.5.
This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 51 points.
I found some interesting stats for NFL Week 14 betting on the web. Buffalo has been on fire in December, winning all 6 of their recent games. Meanwhile, Kansas City hasn’t performed well in December, with a 1-4 ATS record.
For those interested in Over/Under bets, here’s a trend to consider: In 5 out of Buffalo’s last 7 road games against Kansas City, the total points scored have gone over the set line.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1732123927407886532
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