Free NBA Pick: Suns vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for Phoenix Sunsvs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Suns taking on the Nuggets on Saturday, April 29th, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Suns Nuggets matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
(0-0) Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0)
Date: Saturday, April 29th
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Suns +125 | Nuggets -145 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -3
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 226.5
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The fourth-seeded Phoenix Suns and top-ranked Denver Nuggets tip off their Western Conference semi-finals on Saturday. Both teams arrive following a gentleman’s sweep of the Clippers and Wolves respectively.
Arguably this series features the most superstar talent of any 2023 postseason matchup. Both teams boast former MVPs, All-Star talents, and starting point guards who can directly impact winning.
There are discernable strengths and weaknesses for each side but many analysts project whoever wins this series will represent the West in the NBA Finals.
ATS
At this time, the Suns are 44-41-2 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 21-21-1 ATS as the away team. At this time, the Nuggets are 47-39-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 27-16-1 ATS as the home team
Season Series
The teams split the season series with Denver winning on December 25th in overtime (128-125), and January 11th (126-97), while the Suns won on March 31st (100-93) and April 6th (119-115).
While Durant played in both games the Suns won the only starter who appeared (and just in one of the two matches) was Aaron Gordon while the Suns had their full starting lineup.
Last season the clubs played three times with Phoenix winning two of the three contests. The Suns hold the all-time record having bested the Nuggets in 102 of their 189 matches.
This is the fifth time the clubs are facing each other in the postseason with Phoenix holding the 3-1 advantage including the most recent meeting in 2021 when the Nuggets were limited without Murray or Porter Jr.
Phoenix Suns
The mid-range assassins will be in full effect. In fact, the Suns rarely shoot from outside averaging the least of all playoff squads with just 27.3 percent of their field goals attempted from the perimeter.
Devin Booker feasted in the first round via a combination of facing the injury-decimated Clippers and Ty Lue opting to load up on Kevin Durant.
Booker averaged 37.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 2.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks, shooting 60.2% from the field (17.6 attempts) and 46.7% from deep (6.0 attempts). KD averaged 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks, shooting 45.8% from deep on 4.8 attempts.
The concern is the playing time with both over 43 minutes per game because the Suns’ greatest weakness is their lack of depth.
While that wasn’t an issue against the Clippers since reserve players replaced the injured stars it could be a major factor in this series playing in the high altitude of Colorado and facing a deep healthy club.
Stats
Phoenix averages 113.6 points per game ranking 17th while shooting 46.7% from the field and 37.4% from the perimeter ranking 23rd and seventh overall.
Defensively opponents score 111.6 points ranking sixth-best. Meanwhile, they limit foes to 46.6% from the field and 35.7% from the perimeter ranking sixth and 11th respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- none
Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray will offer the superstar counter to KD and Book. Jokic averaged just shy of a triple-double versus the Wolves with 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, plus 1.2 steals while shooting 50% from deep on 4.4 attempts.
Murray channeled a version of himself that emulated his breakout in the Disney Bubble with 27.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 6.4 assists, plus 1.0 steals while shooting 42.9% from deep on 8.4 attempts.
Denver has quality role players who are perfectly suited to complimenting Jokic and Murray. Michael Porter Jr. has quietly improved defensively and was an x-factor in fourth quarters in the first round.
The Brown’s (one spelled Braun) and KCP offer defensive intensity with versatility to score on drives or from deep while Aaron Gordon is the team’s top defender and recipient of copious Jokic lobs leading to dunks.
Stats
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Suns are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Also, the Suns are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against Denver.
- By comparison, Nuggets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- In conclusion, the Nuggets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.
Free Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:
The biggest question Michael Malone will have to address is defending the pick and roll and whether he shifts away from the drop coverage they employed versus the Wolves. Presumably, Gordon will be the primary defender on KD, while KCP and Brown take turns on Booker.
Deandre Ayton made a big deal about his motor and importance on the squad and will be tested in this series to replicate the success he had versus Jokic in the 2021 playoffs.
Yet, this version of the Nuggets is dramatically different with six players still on the roster but Murray was out injured in that series while two others only played in garbage time.
Equally intriguing is who the Suns will have CP3 defend since the Nuggets are taller at every position. Pick-and-roll defense will also be a question for Phoenix with Booker ranking fifth and Murray seventh in P&R shot creation scoring.
Ultimately, the longer the series goes the more it favors Denver especially if Monty Williams keeps playing KD and Booker 43+ minutes per game.
4* Free Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Nuggets ATS
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