Free Pick: Thunder vs. Spurs Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Spurs on 2/4 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Thunder Spurs free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
(40-11) OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs (33-17)
Date: Feb 4, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunders -125 | Spurs +119 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder -1.5 | Spurs +1.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 222.5
Here’s why I’m backing the underdog San Antonio as outlined below in my Thunder Spurs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Spurs Gameday
(UPDATED: following SGA injury)…
On Wednesday, the NBA offers a slate of seven matches, including the fifth meeting this season between the OKC Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
OKC is completing a back-to-back set, having pounded the Orlando Magic 128-92 on Tuesday. Six Thunder players scored in double figures, led by reserve Isaiah Joe with 22 points, while Isaiah Hartenstein registered his first career triple-double (12 points/10 rebounds/10 assists).
San Antonio has the major rest advantage, having last played on Sunday in a winning 112-103 effort versus the Orlando Magic. Six Spurs scored in double-figures, led by Victor Wembanyama, who offered 25 points and eight rebounds, while De’Aaron Fox served up a double-double of 14 points and 10 assists.
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OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds & Last 5
Last year, the Thunder won the season series two games to one over the Spurs. In this campaign, the squads were scheduled to play four times, but because of the NBA Cup, they’ll play five times in total. To date, the Spurs are dominating, up 3-1 in the series.
OKC is dealing with a bunch of injuries, and they’ve taken a hit because of it, although they remain the top seed in the association with a 40-11 record. Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to that list of walking wounded as he suffered an abdominal strain on Tuesday that will keep him out until after the All-Star Break.
OKC holds a six-game lead over both the Spurs and seven games over the Nuggets, and has three extra wins over the Pistons, but has played two additional games to Detroit.
On the season, the Spurs hold the second seed with a 33-16 record, but have played closer to .500 since they beat the Thunder on Christmas. To wit, San Antonio is 10-9 since that big holiday win and has losses to lower-tier clubs like Utah, Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans.
The oddsmakers are favoring OKC to win by two points with an over/under of 226.5 points.
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks fourth (118.2) on offense and first on defense (105.6). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.6) and run the 14th-ranked pace (100.95).
The NBA’s top team averages 120.3 points per game while its opponents average 108.0 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 43.7 (tied for 16th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (32.0 points) as well as for assists (6.4), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (10.0), Cason Wallace for steals (2.0), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (2.1).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot at least 36.6%, with the team shooting 35.9 overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks 11th offensively (116.2) and third defensively (111.2), while it is sixth in net rating (+5.0) and 17th in pace (100.42).
The West’s second seed averages 116.9 points per game while its opponents average 111.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 26.0 (16th) and 46.1 (fourth), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.1 points), rebounding (9.1), and **blocks (2.7), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.0) and De’Aaron Fox leads in steals (1.3).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have six players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 34.6%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs bottom line:
San Antonio has owned this matchup with their triumvirate of guards creating havoc on the Thunder’s defense. OKC won the most recent matchup but has the rest disadvantage entering this contest, AND now that SGA is out, that leaves a massive hole for the Thunder.
The main area the Thunder need to focus on is pushing the pace to get into the paint, where they had trouble scoring in the three losses. They’ll also need to protect the ball as the Spurs will feast on any turnovers.
OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games.
- Oklahoma City is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
- Also, San Antonio is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio’s last 7 games.
- Additionally, San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games played in February.
Thunder Spurs Free Pick: Spurs +1.5
Here is my Thunder Spurs free pick.
This game won’t count in the grand scheme of things unless the teams end up tied at season’s end, and even then, a win by OKC won’t help them in that regard.
Rather, winning this game on a rest disadvantage and without SGA (or any of the typical starters: see Tweet of the Day) would go a long way to telling the Spurs – okay, you had our number early, but now we have tweaked our scheme to capture wins.
San Antonio is sending Victor Wembanyama to the All-Star Game and OKC has SGA and Chet Holmgren representing the Thunder. Wemby (and Shai***) will play for the World Team while Chet will play for the U.S.
(*** A replacement player will play in SGA’s place due to the injury.)
Frankly, if the Spurs win, they are doing it on a rest advantage and without OKC’s entire starting lineup, so does it do much to add any further angst to the Thunder’s thoughts come the postseason? I don’t think so.
Perhaps a loss might nudge Sam Presti to make a few deadline tweaks, but honestly, I don’t think it means much to the Thunder other than they are approaching this game as a throwaway and to get an idea of what their reserves can offer in this matchup.
UPDATED: After posting my original take, the news of SGA’s injury and an updated injury report was released. To that end, OKC is 3-4 in second games of back-to-back sets, and without the starting rotation, the pendulum shifts directly to the Spurs.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Thunder injury report for tonight’s game against the Spurs:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal strain) is out
Chet Holmgren (back spasms) is out
Isaiah Hartenstein (eye corneal abrasion) is out
Lu Dort (patellofemoral joint inflammation) is out
Jalen Williams (hamstring strain)…— Clemente Almanza (@CAlmanza1007) February 4, 2026
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