2022-23 NBA Previews – Southwest Division Odds
Looking for 2023 NBA Southwest Division Predictions? We’ve got your back. Like most of the NBA divisions the Southwest has at least two clubs dedicated to tanking however there are three legitimate clubs that could win the division.
2023 NBA Handicapping
Southwest Division Season Preview
Division Favorite: Memphis Grizzlies +124
Memphis Grizzlies
Head Coach: Taylor Jenkins
2021-22 Record: 56-26
Odds To Win Division: +124
Odds To Win Conference: +1025
Odds To Win NBA Championship: +2100
Memphis was the team fans and bettors couldn’t afford to disregard last season no matter the circumstances. When superstar Ja Morant was felled by injury Taylor Jenkins got his charges to up the defensive intensity and just keep winning.
They’ll be tasked with a similar dilemma this season as Jaren Jackson Jr. underwent foot surgery in June and is expected to be out until the end of December.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the equation about the Grizzlies is they let three key role players go this offseason electing to not re-sign Kyle Anderson or Jarrett Culver and trading De’Anthony Melton. But did nothing to replace those individuals in free agency.
That shows the Grizzlies are committed to taking their time developing this young core and unlike other franchises (Knicks – cough) who tend to overreact to success they are staying the course.
With the West getting key stars back they’ll be far more competitive as a whole this season. Subsequently, it’s unlikely the Grizzlies will replicate their 2022 success (second-best record in the league). That said – Jenkins has his charge’s attention and this squad will still be a tough out.
Dallas Mavericks
Head Coach: Jason Kidd
2021-22 Record: 52-30
Odds To Win Division: +132
Odds To Win Conference: +990
Odds To Win NBA Championship: +2100
Luka Doncic arrived in camp in the best shape of his tenure with the Mavericks. That should factor in the record as the Mavericks got out to an 11-9 start last season and finished 17-5 when Luka was in condition.
That’s vital this season as 13 of their first 20 games are versus 2022 playoff teams plus a healthier Clippers (Kawhi Leonard), Wizards (Bradley Beal), and Blazers (Damian Lillard) clubs.
Jalen Brunson is gone but the Mavs added Christian Wood, JaVale McGee and have Tim Hardaway Jr. returning from his injury.
I’m not sure the Mavs will be as strong defensively this season as teams had the summer to game plan how to thwart their simple defense but the constancy of the roster, in shape Luka, and a more balanced team should equate to them challenging for the top of the Southwest.
New Orleans Pelicans
Head Coach: Willie Green
2021-22 Record: 36-46
Odds To Win Division: +370
Odds To Win Conference: +2100
Odds To Win NBA Championship: +4000
Consider the Pelicans started the 2021-22 season 4-16 were missing Zion Williamson all year and still managed to get into the postseason.
The big question for the Pelicans is how they will use their strong 2022 finish and impressive playoff appearance to motivate this season. Will they follow the path of the 2022 Hawks and Knicks who overachieved but fell on their laurels or will they use it to whet their appetites for more?
I’m guessing the latter given vet CJ McCollum and coach Willie Green will have them invested in fighting for more. Zion Williamson is back and healthy which makes these Pels a dark horse to not only win the division but perform well enough to claim a home-court seed.
The first 20 games feature 12 (2022) playoff, teams plus both LA clubs so getting out of the gate strong is essential.
Houston Rockets
Head Coach: Stephen Silas
2021-22 Record: 20-62
Odds To Win Division: +20000
Odds To Win Conference: +30000
Odds To Win NBA Championship: +65000
Although the Rockets are still developing and in the middle of their rebuild they should be among your top NBA League Pass views.
With the deep 2023 draft class and generational talents at the top of the draft, it’s not likely Houston will want to risk losing out on Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson.
But that doesn’t mean Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Easton won’t deliver some top-level entertainment.
San Antonio Spurs
Head Coach: Gregg Popovich
2021-22 Record: 34-48
Odds To Win Division: +22000
Odds To Win Conference: +28000
Odds To Win NBA Championship: +65000
Remember when it was sacrilege to bet against the Spurs making the playoffs? That was the case for 22 consecutive seasons until a new era turned the page with the exit of Timmy Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and eventually the trade of Kawhi Leonard.
But for the unexpected fall-out of Leonard and the team, it’s reasonable to think the Spurs would’ve just kept on winning. Instead, the team acquiesced to Leonard’s wishes and began their rebuild with an emphasis on developing young talents.
This offseason they traded their top asset Dejounte Murray and in the process added two UNPROTECTED first-round draft picks (2025/2027), a protected Hornets pick that will eventually convey to two second-round picks, and the right to swap their 2026 pick with Atlanta.
I’ll simply call your attention to how the Spurs began their two-decade run … they tanked in 1996-97 and won the draft by selecting Tim Duncan.
While the Spurs have shown the ability to pick diamonds out of the draft even with later picks — make no mistake the trade of Murray was RJ Bufford and Pops’ overt choice to bank winning the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes!
NBA Southwest Division Prediction
This is the toughest division to assess because any of the top three clubs could win. The oddity is the Pelicans and Grizzlies feel like they are deep enough to overcome an injury whereas the Mavericks would falter if Doncic went down for any significant amount of time.
I want to lean toward the Pelicans because I really like their overall compilation and versatility but I can’t discount Morant and the Grizzlies mindset especially because they’ve continually reminded us they won’t be underestimated.
So, take the Grizz but I won’t argue if you select the Pels or the Mavs.
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