Free Pick: Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds
Looking for Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Timberwolves taking on the Spurs on 5/4 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Timberwolves Spurs free pick.
2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs
(0-0) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs (0-0)
Date: May 4, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +500 | Spurs -625 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Timberwolves +13 | Spurs -13
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 217.5
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting underdog Minnesota as outlined below in my Timberwolves Spurs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Gameday
Monday serves up the start of the second round with the Minnesota Timberwolves traveling to face the San Antonio Spurs in their semi-finals matchup.
Minnesota advanced by taking down the third-seeded Nuggets despite being severely depleted due to injury. They won Game 6 by a score of 110-98. Five Wolves scored in double figures, led by Jaden McDaniels with 32 points and 10 rebounds for his double-double effort. Rudy Gobert also registered a double-double of 10 points and 13 rebounds, plus an impressive eight assists.
The Spurs advanced by defeating the Portland Trail Blazers in five games. doing so without Victor Wembanyama in one game. They completed the Gentleman’s sweep with a 114-95 victory. Six Spurs scored in double-figures, led by De’Aaron Fox with 21 points and nine assists.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds & Last 5
This season it was the Wolves who prevailed to take a 2-1 regular season series win versus San Antonio and are 5-2 over the last two seasons.
As for their playoff history, the teams have only met on two prior occasions, with the Spurs winning on both occasions. That said, the last time these clubs played was in 2001, so under very different versions of the teams.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
San Antonio finished the season on a 14-2 run, looking primed for the postseason and overcame an injury to their superstar Victor Wembanyama in the first round to sail through to the semis.
The oddsmakers are favoring San Antonio to win by 13 points with an over/under of 217.5 points.
Timberwolves Stats
Minnesota ranks 13th offensively (115.6), eighth defensively (112.5), and 10th in net rating (+3.1), running a pace of 101.50, which also ranks 10th overall.
The West’s sixth-place Wolves average 26.1 assists (16th) and 44.1 rebounds (tied for 12th). Minny scores 118.0 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (28.8 points) and steals (1.4), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.5) and blocks (1.6), and Julius Randle for assists (5.0).
As for the perimeter, it’s a strength for the Wolves, who average 37.0% from deep with eight players shooting above the league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
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Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks fifth offensively (118.6) and third defensively (110.2), while it is second in net rating (+8.5) and 12th in pace (100.72).
The West’s second seed averages 119.7 points per game while its opponents average 111.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 28.1 (ninth) and 47.1 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who tops the Spurs in scoring (24.8 points), rebounding (11.5), and **blocks (3.1), while Stephon Castle leads in assists (7.4) and in steals (1.1).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have five players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 35.9%.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs bottom line:
Like all squads, health is a key factor in how they perform, and coming into this match, the Wolves are limping without Donte DiVincenzo (torn Achilles), Anthony Edwards (hyperextended knee), and possibly Ayo Dosunmu (calf).
While the injury to Edwards is the most concerning, there are whispers that he could return, possibly even for Game 1. If not, it’s likely he’s back soon. In his absence (if he doesn’t play on Monday), the Wolves will need to replicate their gritty Round 1 effort, so his return factors.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Basketball Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games.
- Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against San Antonio.
- Also, San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio’s last 5 games.
- Additionally, San Antonio is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games.
Timberwolves Spurs Free Pick: Wolves +13
Here is my Timberwolves Spurs free pick.
Even with the Wolves’ injuries, this series will be a tougher test for the young Spurs, who’ll need to be sharp on the offensive end.
Minnesota dealt with the league’s top offense (Nuggets), holding them to 13 fewer points, so the Spurs need to ensure the ball is moving. They’ll also have a rim protector (Rudy Gobert) that wasn’t necessarily present in the last round (apologies to Clingon).
Per John Schuhmann: Wembanyama averaged 34 points in less than 29 minutes in his two games against the Wolves. He was defended more by Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels than by Rudy Gobert. Yet only 32% of Wembanyama’s shots came in the paint, his lowest rate against any opponent. He did go 21-for-24 at the free-throw line and the Wolves had the highest opponent free-throw rate in the first around, so he should be prepared to get hit often over the next two weeks.
With whispers, Edwards could be back as early as Game 1, which makes for a much more exciting and intriguing series.
Key questions are how many minutes Wemby will need to play in this series after he wasn’t pushed too hard in Round 1, and whether the experience of the Wolves (who went to the last two Western Conference Finals) will be a factor in getting into the young, inexperienced Spurs heads.
Fingers crossed AntMan is back just to make for an exciting series. As for Game 1, it’s always a feeling-out period, and this match will be no different. For that reason, and because I loathe big spreads, I’ll take the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards was a significant participant in Timberwolves shootaround this morning and wants to return in Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs, sources tell ESPN. Edwards is pushing to play, but he and the team’s medical staff will make a decision later today.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 4, 2026
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