Free Pick: Timberwolves vs. Rockets Odds
Looking for Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Timberwolves taking on the Rockets on 1/16 at the Toyota Center in Houston. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Timberwolves Rockets free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
(27-14) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets (23-15)
Date: Jan 16, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +152 | Rockets -175 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Timberwolves +4.5 | Rockets -4.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 222
Here’s why I’m backing the favorite Houston as outlined in my Timberwolves Rockets free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Timberwolves vs. Rockets Gameday
Friday, the NBA serves up a six-game slate, including the Minnesota Timberwolves versus the Houston Rockets.
Minny last played on Tuesday, walloping the Bucks 139-106. This was an even more impressive win considering Rudy Gobert (suspension for accumulation of technical points) and Anthony Edwards (foot) did not play.
Six Wolves scored in double figures, with Julius Randle leading the way with 29 points, eight rebounds, and six assists.
Houston will be at a rest disadvantage playing a tough back-to-back after facing the Thunder on Thursday. The Rockets fell to OKC 91-111 with only four players scoring in double digits.
Kevin Durant led the way with 19 points while Jabari Smith Jr. (17 points/10 rebounds) and Alperen Sengun (14 points, 13 rebounds) each registered double-doubles.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Odds & Last 5
Last year, the teams played four times and split the season series. They’ll play three times in this campaign.
Minny has been on fire of late, going 4-1 in their last five matches, but stretching further back are 16-6 in the last 22 contests. They’ve moved up to the fourth seed in the West with a 27-14 record and are on the heels of the Spurs, just a half game back, plus are a game back of the Nuggets for second.
As noted in the prior preview, Houston is glad to be back in the warm confines of the Toyota Center after losing four of five on the road. They fell down the ladder during the road trip and enter this match in the sixth seed with a record of 23-15.
Houston is favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 222 points.
Timberwolves Stats
Minnesota ranks sixth offensively (117.6), eighth defensively (112.4), and sixth in net rating (+5.3), running a pace of 101.35, which ranks 12th overall.
The West’s fourth-place Wolves average 27.0 assists (10th) and 44.8 rebounds (10th). Minny scores 120.3 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (28.9 points) and steals (1.3), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.4) and blocks (1.7), and Julius Randle for assists (5.7).
As for the perimeter, the Wolves average 37.4% from deep with six players shooting above 36.1%.
*minimum 10 games played
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Rockets Stats
With 38 games in the pocket, Houston ranks fourth overall (119.2) on offense and ninth on defense (112.7). Additionally, the Rockets hold the fourth-ranked net rating (+6.5) and run the 28th slowest pace (96.72).
The West’s sixth seed averages 117.2 points per game, while its opponents average 110.8 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Houston averages 25.1 (tied for 21st) and 49.1 (1st), respectively.
Team leaders are Kevin Durant for scoring (25.9), Alperen Sengun for assists (6.5), rebounds (9.0), steals (1.4), and blocks (1.0).
Perimeter shooting is a major advantage for Houston, which shoots the deep ball at an average of 36.8%. Six different players average over 38.0%, with three shooting above 40%.
*Minimum 10 games played
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets bottom line:
Anthony Edwards is out again with a foot ailment, which is a major advantage for the Rockets. Rudy Gobert will be back in the lineup after serving a one-game suspension for amassing too many technical points.
Houston has only played three prior back-to-back sets and has lost all three second games; however, they were on the road for all three contests.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Basketball Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games.
- Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
- Also, Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston’s last 8 games.
- Additionally, Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Timberwolves Rockets Free Pick: Rockets -4.5
Here is my Timberwolves Rockets free pick. Houston lost for just the third time this season on their home court, and while they got spanked, there is no shame in losing to the current best team in the NBA.
It will be interesting to see which player gets the nod in Houston for the All-Star Game because each of Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun are having big seasons. It’s unlikely both get the nod especially since they’ve slipped down the ladder.
Houston should have this one handily, given Edwards is out, combined with how they typically play at the Toyota Center.
Although they just got blown out, I’ll give the Rockets the benefit of the doubt and take them to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Jabari spoke on the support he’s received from his teammates 🤝
“Everybody stayed on me and put the confidence in me. Everybody’s seen me make shots… Just remembering who I am and the work I put into this game.”@jabarismithjr | #AllFire pic.twitter.com/2dO84M4S96
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) January 14, 2026
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