Free NBA Pick: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Timberwolves taking on the Nuggets on Saturday, May 4th, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Timberwolves Nuggets matchup.
2024 NBA Playoffs Handicapping Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
(0-0) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0)
Date: Saturday, May 4th
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Wolves +158| Nuggets -180 (Bet Now!)
NBA ATS Betting Odds: Nuggets -4.5
Today’s NBA Betting Total (O/U): 207.5
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Conference semi-finals tip off with the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves facing the two-seeded Denver Nuggets. Minnesota advanced by sweeping the Phoenix Suns while the defending champs required one extra game in a gentleman’s sweep of the Lakers.
Season Series
For the past two seasons, these teams have split the season series each winning twice. Denver holds the all-time record between the squads with 89 victories in 145 matches.
This is the third time in franchise history the teams are meeting in the postseason with each side having advanced via a gentleman’s sweep in the first round.
The most recent meeting occurred last season in the Nuggets title run and notably, afterward, Michael Malone said it was the toughest test they faced.
*Editor’s Note: Statistics and rankings are current as of this writing, on Friday, May 3rd. Numbers may vary slightly entering games on Saturday, May 4th.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last year the Wolves were missing two key players in the series against Denver with Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid both sidelined by injury. Both are healthy and will factor this time around.
Anthony Edwards has become Minny’s primary scoring option averaging 31 points, 8.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 2.0 steals against the Suns while shooting 43.8%.
Upfront the Wolves will rely on leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns to deal with Nikola Jokic. McDaniels will likely draw the primary task of guarding Jamal Murray, with Edwards also spending time on him.
Timberwolves Stats
Through the regular season, Minnesota ranked tied for 17th on offense (114.6) and first defensively (108.4) while they were a plus +6.3 net differential, ranking third overall.
After the first round of the playoffs, the Wolves rank first offensively (123.2), and fifth defensively (109.3) with a plus +13.9 net differential ranking third overall.
The Wolves rode the middle with a 44-41-1 record against the spread through 86 matches this season.
Timberwolves Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- No injuries reported
Denver Nuggets
Although the Nuggets advanced and faced a more talented first-round opponent than the Wolves they never played to their true potential. Part of that was tied to players nursing injuries.
Murray specifically was questionable to play in a couple of games but toughed it out and delivered two game-winning shots. Leading MVP candidate Jokic nearly averaged a triple-double in the first round with 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists.
Michael Porter Jr. will serve as the tertiary scoring option while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon will be tasked with the key defensive assignments against Edwards and KAT.
Nuggets Stats
In the season, Denver ranked fifth offensively (117.8) and eighth defensively (112.3) with a net differential of plus +5.5 ranking fourth overall.
After the first round, the Nuggets rank eighth offensively (113.4) and eighth defensively (109.7) with a plus +3.7 net differential ranking sixth.
Despite their overall placement, the Nuggets aren’t as solid against the spread with a 40-45-2 record through 87 contests.
Nuggets Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Jamal Murray, PG (probable— calf)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG (injured in last game/probable— ankle)
- Vlatko Cancar, SF (OUT indefinitely— knee)
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games.
- Also, the Wolves are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- By comparison, Denver is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Nuggets are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Free Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:
While many will expect Gobert to clamp down Jokic it’s worth noting in the three games they faced each other this season the Nuggets center averaged 32.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, and five assists.
The latter is well below his usual standard so we’ll see if Chris Finch (the hope is he’ll be on-site, seated near the team) elects to make Jokic a scorer instead of a distributor. If that occurs look for Murray to take on a larger playmaking role.
The Wolves’ key advantage is their bench which features Nickeil Alexander-Walker who’ll provide two-way effort and Sixth Man of the Year Reid.
Like most pundits, I expect the series to go the distance. Each side has superstars, size, and intriguing matchups. Whoever wins this series I believe will end up representing the West so fasten your seatbelts as this series has the potential to be the best of the postseason.
Both teams got extra rest after closing their first-round series early which might equate to some early rust in Game 1. That said, the Nuggets feast at Ball Arena and will look to learn from last round’s mistakes of slow starts.
In addition, the Wolves were impressive in reaching this point but are facing a much better opponent in the Nuggets which I expect will take at least a game to adjust.
4* Free Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Nuggets ATS
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NBA Tweet Of The Day
New battle starts tomorrow.#MileHighPlayoffs | #Road2Gold pic.twitter.com/LSAoTpcZiz
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) May 4, 2024
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