Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Nuggets on Sunday, June 4th, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Nuggets matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
(0-1) Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (1-0)
Date: Sunday, June 4th
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Heat +285 | Nuggets -355 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -8.5
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 216.5
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The NBA Finals are underway with the Denver Nuggets retaining their home unbeaten streak with a 104-93 victory in Game 1 over the Miami Heat.
They’ll suit up again Sunday at Ball Arena prior to heading to South Beach where the Heat will host the next two matches.
At this time, the Heat are 44-56-3 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 23-28-1 ATS as the away team. At this time, the Nuggets are 54-43-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 31-18-1 ATS as the home team
Denver swept the two games this season although both came down to the wire with the Nuggets winning 124-119 on December 30th and 112-108 on February 13th.
This is the first postseason meeting between the clubs and is also the Nuggets’ first trip to the big show in franchise history. Miami has one win versus the Nuggets in their last 11 meetings which occurred in the Orlando bubble (August 2020).
The last time Miami won in Denver was in November of 2016.
While everything went right for the Heat leading into the Finals that wasn’t the case in Game 1. Bam Adebayo was the lone Heat player to score over 20 points (26) but needed 25 shot attempts.
In hindsight, that seemed to be precisely what Michael Malone’s plan was – – to allow Bam to shoot because he typically doesn’t draw a lot of free throws nor shoot from the perimeter.
The Nuggets’ height was an issue as Jimmy Butler discovered collecting only 13 points and taking far fewer drives after getting blocked twice early.
Miami’s cast of others who have feasted struggled in this match as Max Strus (0-10), Duncan Robinson (1-6), and Caleb Martin (1-7) combined for six points.
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
To summarize the injury report…
- Tyler Herro SG (Upgraded to questionable— fingers/hand)
- Caleb Martin SG (questionable— illness)
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
Surprisingly, rust wasn’t an issue for the Nuggets who hit the hardwood dissecting the Heat defense clearly ready to offset Erik Spoelstra’s key defensive strategy.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray continued to hit historic benchmarks as Jokic collected his ninth triple-double of the postseason while the pair became only the second duo to score 25 points and dish 10 assists in the Finals (Magic Johnson, James Worthy).
Also notable was how prepared Malone had his group as they expected Miami to front Jokic and responded by going immediately to the mismatches on Aaron Gordon who was in double figures before the first quarter finished.
Miami didn’t bring out their zone until Jokic sat and then later in the fourth with mixed success — but more on that below.
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
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Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Heat are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
- Also, the Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver.
- By comparison, Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- In conclusion, the Nuggets are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games at home.
Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:
While I would never assume Erik Spoelstra can’t come up with some tweaks there are some things he can’t teach such as height. Even if he elects to bring in Kevin Love he’ll be roasted defensively so it’s more likely Haywood Highsmith gets more run as I previously predicted.
Likewise, if Herro returns for this game he’ll provide offense but Jokic and Murray will hunt him on defense.
As for the Heat’s zone, it failed to work early with Denver shooting over 60% against it and while that figure dropped to 40% when Miami used it in the fourth quarter it’s important to note the Nuggets had four wide-open shots (mostly 3-pointers) in that stretch.
Both teams shot below their average from the perimeter and while many correctly suggest the Heat should improve in Game 2, don’t count out the Nuggets also shooting closer to their standard now that they’ve shaken off the rust.
To that end, my assumption is the Heat come out with more force and physicality while the Nuggets look to push the pace and get more buckets in transition.
Denver surprised me in Game 1 leading by as many as 24 points and while I’m picking them to go up 2-0 I’ll take the points once again.
4* Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Heat +8.5
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