Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Nuggets on Monday, June 12th, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Nuggets matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
(1-3) Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (3-1)
Date: Monday, June 12th
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Heat +280 | Nuggets -350 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -9
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 208.5
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The Denver Nuggets are on the precipice of winning their first NBA Title after sweeping the two games in South Beach to take a 3-1 series lead.
For the third time in the series, the Nuggets held the Heat under 100 points winning Game 4 by a score of 108-95.
Being in the underdog position isn’t new for the Heat who beat three top-four seeds to get to the finals but other than Game 7 in Boston this is their first must-win scenario.
At this time, the Heat are 45-58-3 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 24-28-1 ATS as the away team. At this time, the Nuggets are 56-44-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 31-19-1 ATS as the home team
Denver swept the two games this season although both came down to the wire with the Nuggets winning 124-119 on December 30th and 112-108 on February 13th.
This is the first postseason meeting between the clubs and is also the Nuggets’ first trip to the big show in franchise history. Miami has one win versus the Nuggets in their last 12 meetings which occurred in the Orlando bubble (August 2020).
The last time Miami won in Denver was in November of 2016.
While Miami has feasted on adversity their backs are against the wall needing to win out to keep the Heats title hopes alive. Erik Spoelstra is a coaching savant yet every tweak he’s made the Nuggets have overcome while Denver’s length continues to pose problems.
Another concern is the Heats’ perimeter efficiency has fallen off with only Game 2 (48.6%) registering above 34% while the Nuggets seem to have found the range shooting 50% in Game 4.
Jimmy Butler delivered his most complete effort in Game 4 registering 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists while getting to the line nine times and continuing to exert tough defensive coverage on Jamal Murray.
Bam Adebayo registered a double-double of 20 points and 11 rebounds while four others (Lowry-13, Love-12, Robinson-12, Martin-11) scored in double-digits.
The issue was the starting backcourt of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus who combined for two points on 1 of 10 from the field.
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
To summarize the injury report…
- Tyler Herro SG (downgraded to OUT— fingers/hand)
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
After the superstars posted 30-point triple-doubles in Game 3, Nikola Jokic (23 points, 12 rebounds) was limited by foul trouble and Jamal Murray (15 points, 12 assists) had a cold shooting night.
Murray still managed to notch another record, becoming the first player to dish 10+ dimes in his first four Finals matches and became the third player to get 12+ assists without a turnover (Robert Reid, Magic Johnson).
While it wasn’t a typical Joker, Murray effort the role players stepped up with Aaron Gordon leading the way with 27 points (6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals) and Bruce Brown offering 21 points off the bench.
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
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Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Heat are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
- Also, the Heat are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against Denver.
- By comparison, Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- In conclusion, the Nuggets are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.
Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:
Although the Heat has made a habit of delivering in adversity they find themselves with less than a 5 percent chance of succeeding. In history, 271 teams have fallen behind 1-3 with only 13 clubs surviving and worse, just one of those occurred in the NBA Finals (2016 Cavaliers).
Considering the Nuggets have a single postseason home loss and hold home court it sure feels like the end of the line for Miami although their character is to fight so they’ll be trying to force the teams back to Miami and Game 7 back in Denver where the pressure would shift to the Nuggets.
Frequent readers know I picked the Nuggets in preseason and rode them all the way to this point so it shouldn’t surprise I’m picking them to make franchise history in Game 5.
That said, close-out games are the most difficult although Jokic and Murray can taste how close this title is with Ball Arena expected to be rabid in anticipation they should use that energy to propel them to their first franchise title.
Nine points seems like a rich spread, but just like I predicted they’d cover in Game 4, I’m riding with them again to wrap up the series in spectacular fashion.
4* Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Nuggets +9
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