Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Nuggets on Thursday, June 1st, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Nuggets matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
(0-0) Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0)
Date: Thursday, June 1st
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Heat +305 | Nuggets -375 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -9
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 219.9
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After weeks of entertaining playoffs, we arrive at the NBA Finals with the West top seed the Denver Nuggets hosting the East’s eighth-seeded Miami Heat.
On their route to the finals Denver dispensed of the Timberwolves in a gentleman’s sweep, the Suns in six games and swept the Lakers.
In contrast, the Heat began their journey in the play-in tournament needing two games to secure the eighth seed and then took out the Vegas favorite Bucks in a gentleman’s sweep prior to beating the Knicks in six games.
The toughest test was another Vegas darling, the Celtics who they took a 3-0 lead on, but needed seven games to complete the mission.
ATS
At this time, the Heat are 44-55-3 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 23-27-1 ATS as the away team. At this time, the Nuggets are 53-43-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 30-18-1 ATS as the home team
Season Series
Denver swept the two games this season although both came down to the wire with the Nuggets winning 124-119 on December 30th and 112-108 on February 13th.
Neither team had their full roster complement for the series as Jeff Green was out in Denver while Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon sat in Miami.
Kevin Love and Cody Zeller weren’t signed until after the series was completed, Caleb Martin was out in Denver whereas Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Duncan Robinson sat out the match in Miami.
Herro was the Heat’s top performer in Denver with a double-double of 26 points and 10 rebounds while Jimmy Butler just missed a triple-double in Miami with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists.
Nikola Jokic was the top performer in both matches dropping a triple-double (19 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists) at home and 27 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in Miami.
This is the first postseason meeting between the clubs and is also the Nuggets’ first trip to the big show in franchise history. Miami has one win versus the Nuggets in their last 10 meetings which occurred in the Orlando bubble (August 2020).
The last time Miami won in Denver was in November of 2016.
Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler put the Heat on his back to power past the Bucks but has looked more fatigued as the playoffs continue. Fortunately, he’s getting help from teammates who’ve rediscovered their perimeter range leading all teams this postseason.
Caleb Martin performed so well in the Conference Finals that he nearly stole the Larry Bird Conference Finals MVP award from Butler. Bam Adebayo leads the defense but his offense has been hit-and-miss and he’ll face his toughest challenge in the Finals trying to limit Jokic.
Erik Spoelstra has won every coaching matchup with his schematic tweaks winning several games along the way but his go-to move of throwing out zone defense isn’t likely to be featured as much in this series (more on that below).
Herro has missed all but Game 1 in Milwaukee after fracturing fingers but is expected to make a return in this series probably back in Miami. To that end, while Herro provides offensive production his presence will also afford Jokic and Murray a target to seek out on defense.
Stats
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
- Tyler Herro SG (OUT— fingers/hand)
Denver Nuggets
Miami is dripping with championship experience both in management (Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra), and on the roster (Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love) but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the Nuggets’ only roster member with a ring (won in the bubble with the Lakers).
Still, the Nuggets are the dominant favorite to win the title and arrive with home-court advantage where they haven’t lost a game this postseason (8-0).
On their journey, the Nuggets have faced formidable opponents and duos but Jokic (29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, 10.3 assists) and Murray (27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists) are arguably the most dominant duo of the postseason.
They rank fifth and 10th in scoring and are interchangeable running pick and roll sets.
Like the Heat, Denver has several complimentary role players and is equally adept at hitting from distance. Of those who are in the regular playoff rotation, each team has four players shooting 39% or higher from deep.
While Jokic will be a handful, the Nuggets also have height at every position which could prove beneficial particularly 6’10 small forward Michael Porter Jr. who is taller than all the Heat rotation players except Cody Zeller.
Stats
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
NBA Bettors we want to hear from you. Comment below. Give us your Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA picks!
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Also, the Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver.
- By comparison, Nuggets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- In conclusion, the Nuggets are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games at home.
Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:
Despite starting every series on the road the Heat are 3-0 in Game 1’s while the Nuggets haven’t lost any games at Ball Arena (8-0) which means one of those streaks will end.
In terms of rest versus rust, the Nuggets have been idle for nine days while the Heat got just two days off. Historically, teams who’ve had five or more days off are 10-6 in Game 1’s (home teams are 8-1 in both G1 and the series).
Seven times in the finals one team swept the Conference Finals while the other team went the distance and in this circumstance, the odds are a more reasonable 4-3.
The biggest question entering G1 is how the teams will defend each other’s main offensive weapons. Notably, Miami has feasted on slowing down opponents with a heavy diet of zone defense but Jokic is the best zone-buster in the NBA.
Jokic operates at his best in the middle of the key either finding the open shooter, cutter or pulling up and shooting over his defender so Spoelstra will need to dig into his bag of tricks.
Likewise, Michael Malone will have to prepare Gordon to defend Butler without falling for the pump fake. Perimeter defense will be a factor on both sides and role players will factor large.
Frequent readers know I’ve been on the Nuggets train all season long so you won’t be surprised I’m picking them to win the chip. If Denver opens with two victories it could be a quick five-game series but if Miami can get the split I think it’ll go six games.
In addition, while the Nuggets might take a while to get back in rhythm the longer the series goes the more that rest will benefit them. It’s a shame only one team can win because these clubs have provided some highly entertaining matches this postseason.
For as special as Butler has been Jokic is a one-of-a-kind maestro and Murray has that look in his eyes so even if they struggle to get their legs back under them I project they find a way to win the opener but the spread feels too rich especially after such a long layoff so take the points.
4* Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Heat +9
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