Free NBA Pick: Heat vs Nuggets NBA Odds

Looking for Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Nuggets on Monday, February 11th, 2019 at the Pepsi Center in Denver. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Nuggets matchup.

(25-28) Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (37-18)

Date: Monday February 11th
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
NBA Moneyline Odds: Off
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -10.5
NBA Betting Total: 213
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On paper Denver should run away with Monday night’s game with the Heat as oddsmakers have set them as -10 favorites. That being said the Nuggets are in a bit of a slide having dropped three straight contests. All three have been on the road however and the Nuggets have an advantage of returning to the Pepsi Center where they are 23-4 on the year.

One of the reason Miami is such a huge underdog Monday is because they are coming in off a back-to-back situation. The Heat did play well last night in a 118-120 loss at Golden State. Unfortunately the game with the Warriors being close might have also cost Miami any shot at a win on Monday night in Denver.

Miami Heat

Miami burned up a lot of resources in the loss at Golden State yesterday. Josh Richardson logged 37 minutes and Dion Waiters 41. Even Dwyane Wade played 28 minutes off the bench and back up big man Bam Adebayo logged 25.

Somebody who should be fresh for Monday’s contest is Hassan Whiteside who will be a critical asset vs. Denver’s Nikola Jokic. How much will the rest of the Heat have in the tank however as they play not only in a back-to-back, but in their fourth straight game on the road?

The Heat are slumping overall, having dropped 5 of their last 6. That streak kicked off with an atrocious 89-105 loss at home to Chicago where Miami was a -10.5 favorite. It’s games like that which make the 10 points Miami is getting on Monday seem like maybe not enough.

The issues that Miami is facing are definitely due to their offensive woes. In four of the last six games Erik Spoelstra’s team has been held to 102 points or less. Getting any kind of offense going would make Miami a contender (in the East at least) because their defense is one of the best in the league.

Miami does rank 4th in scoring defense and they have the 3rd best unit in terms of opponents field goal percentage. The Heat have held three of six opponents to 105 points or less but once again when you have a low scoring output it’s hard to get wins.

Miami also has a tough test with a Nuggets team that has two 130+ scoring nights so far in February. The offensive numbers also improve as Denver is back home where their last three scoring totals have been 136, 126, and 132.

Denver Nuggets

Denver’s three game losing streak combined with Golden State winning four in a row has put the Nuggets 3 games out of the 1 seed in the West. 6 of the next 7 games are at home for the Nuggets including winnable games vs. Miami and Sacramento this week prior to the all-star break.

The Nuggets do feature the best player in this game in their C Nikola Jokic. He has posted back-to-back triple doubles at Philadelphia and at Brooklyn. Miami is strong down low (#1 defensively vs. the C position) although Jokic went for 29 and 10 when the two teams met up in January.

Speaking of that first meeting, it was a 103-99 Nuggets win in South Beach as +2 underdogs. In addition to Jokic’s big night, Jamal Murray had 18 and Trey Lyles chipped in 15 off the bench. Is that kind of depth going to be key or Denver again on Monday with Miami on 0 days rest?

NBA Betting Trends:

• Heat are 1-4 ATS their last 5 overall
• Heat are 13-6 ATS their last 19 road games
• Nuggets are 20-8 ATS their last 28 home games
• Nuggets are 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games
• Heat are 8-17 ATS the last 25 H2H meetings

Free Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:

Miami looked solid in a 2 point loss at Golden State on Sunday night but it’s hard to ask them to duplicate that in such a quick turnaround. Denver is not going to be looking past this game, instead they’ll be focused on ending their 3 game losing streak.

Miami is on the road Wednesday at Dallas which will be their 5th straight road contest before the all-star break. The heat might be the team looking ahead despite the fact that they’re in a dog fight in the East for the #8 seed.

4* Free NBA Betting Pick: Nuggets -10.5

Too much Jokic and too much of a focused Denver team on Monday night.

NBA Free Score Prediction: Nuggets 128 – Heat 103

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