Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Celtics NBA Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Celtics on Monday, May 29th, 2023 at TD Garden. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Celtics matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
(3-3) Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (3-3)
Date: Monday, May 29th
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Moneyline NBA Odds: Heat +260 | Celtics -310 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Celtics -7.5
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 203.5
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In each round of the playoffs at least one series has gone the distance with the Boston Celtics the only team that will make that trek twice. They forced Game 7 after the basketball gods shone on Derrick White’s tip shot at the buzzer to win 104-103 and even the series.
At this time, the Heat are 43-55-3 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 22-27-1 ATS as the away team. Additionally, the Celtics are 55-45-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 29-22 ATS as the home team
The teams split the regular season series 2-2 with Boston winning the first two meetings on October 21st (111-104) and November 30th (134-121) while the Heat took the latter two contests on December 2nd (120-116 in overtime) and January 24th (98-95).
This is the sixth time the clubs are facing each other in the postseason with Miami ahead 3-2 all-time. It’s the third time in the last four seasons the teams have met in the Conference Finals with the Celtics winning last season 4-3.
After jumping on the Celtics to take a 3-0 series lead the Heat have lost three in a row. Game 6 was heartwrenching as Miami roared back to erase a double-digit deficit and take the lead with just three seconds left in the match.
The initial defense on the final play did precisely what Spoelstra wanted with neither Tatum or Brown getting the ball forcing Smart to hoist a shot with a second left on the clock.
Some of the Heat players thought they’d won when Smart missed but disaster struck as White (who inbounded) got to the rim first tapping in the ball with no time remaining giving Boston the one-point victory.
Neither Jimmy Butler (5 of 21) nor Bam Adebayo (4 of 16) was dominant each struggling (until the final frame). On the bright side, it’s unlikely they’ll both shoot that poorly in back-to-back games.
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
To summarize the injury report…
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
- Tyler Herro SG (OUT— fingers/hand)
Throughout the postseason the Celtics have been their own worst enemy. Unlike their opponent, Boston was expected to win this series and was the title favorite entering the Conference Finals.
That situation isn’t the case any longer given Denver finished their series on May 22nd giving them nine full days off prior to the finals whereas the East winner will get two days to prepare.
While Jayson Tatum has risen to his star level delivering in each of the three victories there should be some concerns for the Celts who coughed up a double-digit lead they held entering clutch time.
The team’s insistence on taking bad perimeter shots is baffling and they got very fortunate with White’s tip-in or would already be fishing. Tatum and Brown specifically shot 0-12 from the perimeter Saturday while the team shot 20% from deep (7-35).
On the positive side, Boston claims the fourth-best point production averaging 117.9 points per game. In terms of efficiency, they shoot 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from the perimeter ranking 15th and sixth respectively.
Presently, opponents average 111.4 points per game which rank fifth. Celtics opponents are limited to 46.3% from the field and 34.5% from the perimeter ranking fifth and fourth respectively.
To summarize the injury report…
- Malcolm Brogdon PG (questionable —forearm)
- Danilo Gallinari, SF (OUT indefinitely — ACL)
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Heat are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.
- Also, the Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Boston.
- By comparison, the Celtics are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- In conclusion, the Celtics are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games at home.
Free Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Prediction:
It was surprising Butler wasn’t more aggressive early and shot so poorly and as noted above I’d be shocked if that happened again.
Expect Butler to play more aggressively as he did late Saturday having figured out the Celts weren’t biting on his pump fake. In clutch time he was more purposeful attacking the rim.
Sure, Boston is playing at home but they are 5-5 this postseason at TD Garden while Miami (5-4) on the road having already taken two games in Bean Town.
Most teams would be reeling from the last-second loss but the Heat are a different type of team. They’ll use Saturday as well as last season’s Game 7 loss as fuel to motivate them.
Ultimately, I trust Spoelstra and Butler more than I trust Mazzulla or the Celtics’ talent. Moreover, the prospect of none of the prior 150 teams coming back from 0-3 looms so if Miami stays close or gets an early lead the pressure will only intensify for the Celts.
Either way, I’ll take the points.
4* Free Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Betting Pick: Heat +7.5
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