Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Celtics NBA Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Celtics on Friday, May 19th, 2023 at TD Garden. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Celtics matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
(1-0) Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (0-1)
Date: Friday, May 19th
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Moneyline NBA Odds: Heat +320 | Celtics -400 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Celtics -9
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 215.5
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The Eastern Conference Finals continues on Friday with the Miami Heat having stolen home court against the Boston Celtics following their 123-116 Game 1 victory.
Jimmy Butler continues to build the narrative as an otherworldly playoff performer while Jayson Tatum followed up his 51-point Game 7 history-making performance with a lackluster second-half dud to start this series.
ATS
At this time, the Heat are 40-53-3 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 21-26-1 ATS as the away team. Additionally, the Celtics are 53-42-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 28-21 ATS as the home team
Season Series
The teams split the regular season series 2-2 with Boston winning the first two meetings on October 21st (111-104) and November 30th (134-121) while the Heat took the latter two contests on December 2nd (120-116 in overtime) and January 24th (98-95).
This is the sixth time the clubs are facing each other in the postseason with Miami ahead 3-2 all-time. It’s the third time in the last four seasons the teams have met in the Conference Finals with the Celtics winning last season 4-3.
Miami Heat
As I predicted the Heat stole Game 1 and while Miami matched Boston with six players scoring in double-figures the shot distribution (other than Jimmy Butler) was much more even.
Unquestionably, Butler was the driving force finishing with 35 points, five rebounds, seven assists, and SIX steals. However, Bam Adebayo (20 points, eight rebounds, five assists) was key with aggressive offense while four others (Lowry, Vincent, Strus Martin) each chipped in with 15.
Miami trailed by 12 points but in truth never looked out of the game. Despite losing some of the key categories like scoring in the paint the Heat beat Boston at their own game shooting 51.6% from the perimeter (16 of 31) hitting six additional 3-pointers.
Stats
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
- Tyler Herro SG (OUT— fingers/hand)
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum may be the most talented player in the series but his performance in Game 1 helped decide the outcome. He scored 30 points but attempted only four shots in the second half and none in the fourth quarter plus turned the ball over three times in that frame.
While the Celtics struggled late, the third quarter is when the game flipped with Miami scoring 46 points while holding the Celtics to 25 points.
Joe Mazzulla’s stubbornness played a key role again as he continues to refuse to call timeouts in critical segments of the game.
As I noted in the Game 1 preview Erik Spoelstra has the decided edge over the Celt’s bench boss and if Mazzulla keeps refusing to make in-game adjustments my guess is Coach Spo will end up stealing another game based on that factor.
Six Celtics scored in double-figures but Tatum, Brown, and Brogdon attempted 52 of the 81 field goals.
While Mazzulla stuck with Robert Williams III in the starting rotation it was Brown, not Williams who led the rebounding effort for Boston with the latter also finishing with a team-worst minus -14.
Stats
On the positive side, Boston claims the fourth-best point production averaging 117.9 points per game. In terms of efficiency, they shoot 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from the perimeter ranking 15th and sixth respectively.
Presently, opponents average 111.4 points per game which rank fifth. Celtics opponents are limited to 46.3% from the field and 34.5% from the perimeter ranking fifth and fourth respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Danilo Gallinari, SF (OUT indefinitely — ACL)
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Also, the total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami’s last 10 games on the road.
- By comparison, the Celtics are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games.
- In conclusion, the Celtics are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games at home.
Free Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Prediction:
As I noted in the Game 1 preview, the Celtics haven’t taken advantage of their home court and with the loss fell to .500 (4-4) at home this postseason while Miami leads all remaining teams with four road wins.
Boston has typically bounced back after a loss although they had back-to-back losses in the 76ers series that occurred with one on the road followed by the Game 5 loss at home.
Losing both matches at home to start the series would put Boston in a psychological hole that would be hard to dig out of so my guess is the Celts come out fired up and if they get a lead Friday I’d expect them to keep their foot on the gas.
That said, this Heat crew is scrappy and embodies the character of Butler who won’t be satisfied with the split so while I do think Boston evens up the series I’ll take the points expecting a closer match than the nine-point spread.
4* Free Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Betting Pick: Heat +9
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