Free NBA Pick: Heat vs. Celtics NBA Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Celtics on Wednesday, May 17th, 2023 at TD Garden. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Heat Celtics matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
(0-0) Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (0-0)
Date: Wednesday, May 17th
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Moneyline NBA Odds: Heat +295 | Celtics -365 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Celtics -8
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 210
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The Eastern Conference Finals begin on Wednesday, May 17th with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics tipping off at TD Garden. Miami beat the Knicks 4-2 wrapping up their series on Friday while the Celtics were pushed to Game 7 before dispensing of the 76ers on Sunday.
There is a long history between these franchises especially recently and while the Celtics are inarguably the deeper squad the Heat arrive with an extra two days of rest and a star that was one shot away from beating Boston in Game 7 last season.
ATS
At this time, the Heat are 39-53-3 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 20-26-1 ATS as the away team. Additionally, the Celtics are 53-41-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 28-20 ATS as the home team
Season Series
The teams split the regular season series 2-2 with Boston winning the first two meetings on October 21st (111-104) and November 30th (134-121) while the Heat took the latter two contests on December 2nd (120-116 in overtime) and January 24th (98-95).
This is the sixth time the clubs are facing each other in the postseason with Miami ahead 3-2 all-time. It’s the third time in the last four seasons the teams have met in the Conference Finals with the Celtics winning last season 4-3.
Miami Heat
Circumstances are dramatically different for the Heat than last year when they topped the East while this season they had to advance through the Play-In Tournament and take down the favorite to win the title (Bucks).
Jimmy Butler was outstanding in the first round but an ankle injury forced him to miss a game in round two and seemingly took away some of his burst against the Knicks.
Case in point, in round 1 he averaged 37.6 points while shooting 44.4% from deep but his scoring regressed to 24.6 points (11.1% from deep) but was impactful elsewhere with 7.2 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2.8 stocks in round 2.
Tyler Herro was expected to miss between four and six weeks after fracturing fingers and while Erik Spoelstra said he won’t play Wednesday and isn’t shooting or dribbling, this coming Friday will be a month since he was injured.
That could mean a longer series could find the guard returning to play in this series.
Stats
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
- Tyler Herro SG (OUT— fingers/hand)
Boston Celtics
Entering the postseason analysts projected the top three teams in the East had the best shot to win the 2023 championship. With the Heat ousting the Bucks and Boston beating the 76ers they’re now considered the clear title favorites.
With the deepest, arguably most talented roster it’s not a stretch to envision Boston prevailing but they’ll need to clean up some bad habits from the first two rounds.
Specifically, they need to be better on their home court and they also need to stop taking opponents for granted.
While Jayson Tatum has higher stats (28.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 2.3 stocks) and delivered series-saving performances the more consistent Celtic has been Jaylen Brown (24.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and a steal).
Stats
On the positive side, Boston claims the fourth-best point production averaging 117.9 points per game. In terms of efficiency, they shoot 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from the perimeter ranking 15th and sixth respectively.
Presently, opponents average 111.4 points per game which rank fifth. Celtics opponents are limited to 46.3% from the field and 34.5% from the perimeter ranking fifth and fourth respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Danilo Gallinari, SF (OUT indefinitely — ACL)
NBA Bettors we want to hear from you. Comment below. Give us your Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtic NBA picks!
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
- Also, the total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami’s last 9 games on the road.
- By comparison, the Celtics are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
- In conclusion, the Celtics are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home.
Free Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Prediction:
Boston trails only the Nuggets offensively in the playoffs with Tatum and Brown leading the charge although five Celtics are scoring in double-figures.
Ironically, the Heat who ranked 25th in the regular season offensively ranks fifth this postseason scoring three points less than Boston per game.
Butler is the only Heat player averaging above 20 points the team has more double-digit scorers than Boston with six (it was eight prior to Herro and Oladipo getting injured).
Defensively the teams have the exact same defensive ranking (sitting sixth prior to the start of this series).
On paper, the Celtics are the prohibitive favorite to win the East but games aren’t played on paper, and recent history dictates Boston can’t afford to take Miami for granted.
One tweak that seems likely is keeping Robert Williams III in the starting rotation as the Celtics were much more effective with that unit particularly defensively.
Neither team turns the ball over much but the Heat have scored the most points off turnovers while the Celtics rank last in that category.
Likewise, both sides have limited opponent scoring in the paint but the Celtics score 2.1 more points in the paint (47.7) so Bam Adebayo will be tested.
Boston loves to shoot the 3-ball and has the best percentage this postseason (39.5%) while the Heat has multiple players who can get hot with five players shooting over 36% versus the Celts who have six (seven if you count Tatum’s 35.9%).
Another similarity is both squads are disciplined, and careful to defend without fouling although mostly due to Butler, the Heat get to the charity stripe more.
A clear advantage is coaching with Erik Spoelstra’s experience and ability to adapt during games far surpassing Joe Mazzulla whose inexperience showed in both prior series.
I’m leaning toward Boston’s talent and depth having the edge in the series but having said that I like the points in Game 1 and the potential for Miami to steal the opener.
Of note, the Heat are .500 on the road in the playoffs (3-3) while Boston is just above .500 at home (4-3).
4* Free Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics NBA Betting Pick: Heat +8
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