Free NBA Pick: Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Lakers taking on the Nuggets on Tuesday, May 16th, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Lakers Nuggets matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
(0-0) Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0)
Date: Tuesday, May 16th
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Lakers +180 | Nuggets -210 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -6
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 222.5
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The Western Conference finals tip off with the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers facing the top-seeded Denver Nuggets. Both teams arrive following 4-2 victories in the semis via a rout in the final game to cinch their berth.
LA dispensed of the defending champion Golden State Warriors in a 122-101 drubbing on Friday while Denver beat the Suns in Phoenix via a 125-100 rout on Thursday.
Through two rounds the Lakers are sporting the top-ranked playoff defense while Denver ranks fifth. Conversely, the Nuggets possess the top-ranked offense and net rating while LA ranks eighth and third respectively.
ATS
At this time, the Lakers are 48-45-2 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 21-25-1 ATS as the away team. At this time, the Nuggets are 51-41-1 against the spread this season. Also, they are 30-16-1 ATS as the home team
Season Series
The teams split the season series 2-2 but notably, Denver hasn’t faced the revamped LA roster given they completed the season series before the trade deadline.
In the four meetings, Nikola Jokic averaged 23.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 9.75 assists, and 2.25 steals in just over 35 minutes per game. Anthony Davis sat one game averaging 18.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.6 steals in just over 30 minutes (exiting early in one game).
This is the eighth time the clubs are facing each other in the postseason with LA winning all prior series and the most recent meeting being in the 2020 Orlando bubble when the Lakers won 4-1 and advanced to win the title.
Los Angeles Lakers
Through two rounds the Lakers have impressed with the best defensive rating and their role players taking turns stepping up to dominate and help them win games.
Anthony Davis overcame his habit of every other night offense from the first round to offer consistently effective two-way production (except Game 2) versus the Warriors. Through 12 games AD has arguably been the best individual defender of the postseason.
LeBron James continues to draw from the fountain of youth while navigating a sore foot. He’s been the smartest player on the court and is averaging 23.4 points, 10 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.3 blocks this postseason.
James registered his first 30-point effort in the close-out game and has three of his four highest-scoring games in the last three matches.
While offense can be fleeting at times, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reeves, and Rui Hachimura join AD and LeBron averaging double-figure scoring.
Stats
On the negative side, LA allows opponents to score an average of 116.6 points per game ranking 20th. Their opponents shoot 46.9% from the field and 34.4% from behind the arc ranking 10th and second respectively.
Another key point is the Lakers score 117.2 points per game which rank sixth-best while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 34.6 percent from the perimeter ranking 10th and 25th respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Mo Bamba (questionable—ankle)
Denver Nuggets
It’s funny how narratives can follow a player just because some talking head makes a statement and it carries forward for years. To wit, at the start of these playoffs, Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic were painted with the same postseason production shade.
In fairness, Embiid was dealing with an injury, but his regular versus playoff production dropped significantly in each of the last two seasons. He’s 0-3 in Game 7’s and has never reached the Conference Finals.
Alternatively, Jokic will play in his second Conference Finals in the last four years, has consistently scored more in every playoff than the regular season with a career postseason average of 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists.
This year, he’s been virtually unstoppable averaging 31 points, 13 rebounds, and 9.7 assists while shooting 55% from the field and 48% from deep. And, let’s not forget, Jokic didn’t have Jamal Murray available in the last two playoffs or Michael Porter Jr. in 2022.
While the Lakers boast five players scoring in double-figures the Nuggets have six and are much better defensively than most realize.
Stats
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- Also, the Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver.
- By comparison, Nuggets are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
- In conclusion, the Nuggets are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games at home.
Free Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction:
On the surface, this is the best offense versus the best defense but this series offers so much more. Although some looked ahead coveting an NBA Finals featuring Embiid versus Jokic, the Davis – Jokic WCF matchup is arguably even more enticing.
AD is beasting but he hasn’t had to face anyone upfront remotely close to Jokic’s ilk or 3-point prowess. Davis is the top rebounder (total rebounds of those still active) but sitting right behind him is Jokic who ranks first in total offensive rebounds.
The top two active players in total assists are Jokic and Murray followed by two Celtics and then LeBron and Russell.
Both teams will try to capitalize on pick-and-roll sets with the Nuggets using it to pull AD out of the paint and the Lakers using it on Jokic to tire him out on defense.
Darvin Ham has adeptly tapped the right reserve player to be an x-factor throughout the postseason but Michael Malone is content with his eight-man rotation and the recent uptick defensively that Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, and Jeff Green have provided.
Both teams are 6-0 at home but the Nuggets not only possess home court they’ve got the advantage of altitude which could become a factor in a long series especially with the teams playing every other day.
LA has won the first game on the road in both prior series so they’ll be gunning for the Game 1 win, but this is an entirely different beast than the Grizzlies or Warriors and they’ll need a similar effort to their most recent win to steal home court.
Denver meanwhile, is sick and tired of being underrated and will be fired up with Ball Arena attendees thirsting to help their home team reach a new benchmark in franchise history.
Frequent readers know I’ve been on the Nuggets train all year so while I’ve gained respect for the Lakers I’m sticking with Jokic and Co. for Game 1.
4* Free Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Nuggets ATS
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