Free NBA Pick: Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Odds
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2022 NBA Playoffs Handicapping NBA Finals
(3-2) Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics (2-3)
Date: Thursday, June 16th
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
NBA Moneyline Odds: Warriors +155 | Celtics -162 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Celtics -4
NBA Betting Total: 210
The NBA Finals could finish this Thursday, June 16th as the Boston Celtics attempt to stave off elimination and the Golden State Warriors seek to win their fourth title in the last eight seasons.
No doubt the league office is salivating over a potential Game 7 on Father’s Day this Sunday, June 19th which might mean the officiating crew will offer a favorable whistle for the Celtics.
Despite what the fan base might believe the Celtics have been the benefactor of the whistle averaging 8.4 additional free throws and 4.8 fewer personal fouls per match with Game 2 the only match they lost both categories.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry was likely due for an off game but fortunately, his teammates stepped up in Game 5 to propel the Warriors to the victory.
On Monday, Steph shot 7 of 22 for 16 points and missed all nine of his 3-point attempts. It marked the end of his streak of making at least one 3-pointer in every playoff game he’s played (123).
Boston undoubtedly missed an opportunity and will be cognizant in games after he hasn’t performed well from deep Curry is averaging 4.5 triples plus there is the lore of Game 6 Klay to worry about.
Game 5 witnessed most of the others step up with Draymond Green looking much more like himself (8 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists) and Thompson scoring 21 including two huge 3-pointers in the fourth quarter.
Andrew Wiggins was the most impactful player delivering a double-double of 26 points and 13 rebounds while providing pivotal defense on Jayson Tatum, particularly in the final frame.
Gary Payton II (15) and Jordan Poole (14) were critical contributors off the bench with the former looking like he’s finally got his rhythm back and the latter hitting yet another buzzer-beating 3-pointer at the end of the third quarter.
Everything was in place for the Celtics to win Game 5 as Robert Williams’ knee wasn’t bothering him (as much), Jayson Tatum delivered arguably his best performance of the series and Curry finally cooled off.
Yet, this Celtics team did follow their typical trend of not being able to pull ahead in games that are close, couldn’t stop turning over the ball plus lost the fourth quarter for only the second time in the series.
Tatum delivered a double-double of 27 points and 10 rebounds with four assists and finally wasn’t anemic from anywhere not behind the arc.
Ime Udoka seemingly had no confidence in his reserves as he played Tatum and Jaylen Brown 44 minutes. Brown had his worst performance shooting 5-18 (27.8%) and turned the ball over five times.
For the Celtics to force a Game 7 they’ll need Tatum to be better as he’s averaging 23.1% inside the 3-point line (19-82) and 23.8% in the fourth quarter (5-21).
His turnovers are a key with 10 in the last two losses and 95 in the series. Fortunately, in the three prior elimination games, he’s performed well averaging 31.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists shooting 49.3% from the field and 51.6% from deep.
NBA Betting Trends:
- Golden State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
- Boston is 13-7 SU in their last 20 games at home.
- Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 9 games.
- Over is 11-4 in Warriors last 15 NBA Championship games.
- Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.
Free Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics NBA Prediction:
Through five games the Warriors have scored 11 more points (10 courtesy of Game 5), and have a slight 0.4 edge on their points in the paint scoring average. Notably, the team who has won the paint scoring has won every game.
Boston is averaging 2.4 additional rebounds with just three additional offensive rebounds in the series but the losses are punctuated by their inability to not turn the ball over (plus 2.4 turnovers per match) leading to an additional 4.8 points scored by Golden State off those miscues.
Games 4 and 5 were the first consecutive losses for Boston this postseason and they haven’t lost three in a row since December (25th, 27th, 29th).
The Celtics won all three prior elimination games, however, this is a different challenge than hosting Game 7 versus a Bucks team without Khris Middleton or hanging on to defeat an injury-riddled Heat squad.
Wiggins and Thompson have improved as this series has extended whereas the Celtics ‘others’ have regressed. Specifically, Derrick White, Grant Williams, and Payton Pritchard combined for 24 points, seven turnovers, and shot 4 of 16 from deep in the last two games.
White scored 16 of that total in Game 4 on an inefficient 4 of 12 and looked downright shell-shocked in Game 5 scoring a single point.
In order to extend the series, Boston will have to avoid turning over the ball and ideally lead by double-digits entering the fourth as they haven’t proven they can win in the clutch. Getting out to a strong start is also important as the pressure will mount in front of the hometown crowd if they fall behind early.
This series is due for the Splash Brothers to both have big games and while I’m well aware of the whistle factor and league office desire for a Game 7, I’m sticking with my pre-series Warriors in 6 prediction with Curry finally getting the MVP he should’ve been awarded in 2015.
4* Free NBA Betting Pick: Warriors +4
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