Free NBA Pick: Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Odds
Looking for Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Nuggets taking on the Heat on Friday, June 9th, 2023 at the Kaseya Center. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Nuggets Heat matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping – Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
(2-1) Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat (1-2)
Date: Friday, June 9th
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
Moneyline NBA Odds: Nuggets -160 | Heat +140 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -3.5
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 210.5
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The NBA Finals continue in South Beach with the Denver Nuggets having taken back home court via a 109-94 victory versus the Miami Heat in Game 3 on Wednesday.
Friday, the Heat will try to even the series while the Nuggets will attempt to sweep in Miami in order to set up the potential to win the title back at home in Game 5.
ATS
At this time, the Nuggets are 55-44-1 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 24-25 ATS as the away team. Additionally, the Heat are 45-57-3 against the spread this season. Also, they are 21-29-2 ATS as the home team.
Season Series
Denver swept the two games this season although both came down to the wire with the Nuggets winning 124-119 on December 30th and 112-108 on February 13th.
This is the first postseason meeting between the clubs and is also the Nuggets’ first trip to the big show in franchise history. Miami has two wins versus the Nuggets in their last 13 meetings with the Game 2 win in Denver their first since the Orlando bubble (August 2020).
Denver Nuggets
When Michael Malone jumped on his team for a lack of energy after Game 2 some pundits took umbrage with that method suggesting it could backfire on him.
Those who’ve followed the team know this is a common practice of the head coach who has a frank open style both behind closed doors and at the podium.
In fact, Malone for all intents and purposes is the voice of the Nuggets — a fierce competitor and in my humble opinion assumes that leadership role with his team reflecting that persona.
Jokic is the best player but doesn’t like the limelight or overt communication preferring to lead by example via his humble, team-first unspoken actions.
On Wednesday, those actions were on full display as Jokic recorded the first NBA Finals 30-20-10 triple-double (32 points, 21 rebounds, 10 assists to be exact).
Jamal Murray joined him (34 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) as the duo became the first duo to record 30-point trip-dubs in an NBA Finals.
Michael Porter Jr. wasn’t as lost defensively but still struggled on offense and as I predicted his minutes were reduced with Christian Braun getting the extra run and becoming an x-factor for Denver.
Stats
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
Miami Heat
Watching Erik Spoelstra’s face on the sidelines and at the podium in the post-game presser it spoke volumes. For the first time in the series, the brilliant coach showed signs of worry.
He’s tweaked the defense and pulled all the right strings but this Nuggets team is arguably a tougher puzzle to solve than any of the prior opponents. It doesn’t help that Jimmy Butler seems to still be slowed by the ankle he hurt in New York.
More concerning is when Denver plays closer to 48 minutes their two stars and the positional length are obstacles that aren’t easily overcome.
This game is a must-win for Miami since beating this offensive juggernaut three times in four games would be virtually impossible.
Although the expectation was Tyler Herro would return in Game 3 or 4 he’s now listed as out Friday. Herro said he’s still dealing with some pain, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Spo is electing to stick with the players who got them to this point instead of messing with the rotation.
Conversely, if the Heat can level the series once again there still might be a chance he’ll play to add some offense (but my guess is it wouldn’t be until Game 6).
Stats
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Tyler Herro SG (OUT— fingers/hand)
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
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Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Also, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Miami.
- By comparison, the Heat are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
- In conclusion, the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when hosting Denver.
Free Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Prediction:
Various theories exist on how to win a series with the most logical (in my opinion) being one victory will be the result of a game that should’ve been lost (comeback/stolen game) while one game each will be won by coaching tweaks, the superstar(s), and an x-factor(s).
The first two games of this finals arguably fall under the first category while Game 3 definitely came courtesy of the Nuggets superstars.
Miami has repeatedly defied the odds so it would be silly to underestimate them. However, for as much as Jokic and Murray were outstanding Wednesday and the Nuggets had their best defensive showing they still haven’t delivered a prototypical Nuggets TEAM performance.
One of Michael Porter Jr. or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has yet to play to their standard offensive effort and both are due for a big game. Coming into the series, MPJ (40.8%) and KCP (41.1%) were both shooting over 40% from the perimeter on a combined 11.8 attempts per game.
The duo is shooting 5 of 28 or 17.8 percent in this series. Coaching savant Spoelstra has to tinker with the defense to figure out a way to limit Jokic and/or Murray and ideally force the others to score.
And if his tweaks mean the others will get more open shots this could be the game MPJ and/or KCP break out of their shooting slump.
It won’t surprise me if Miami finds another gear or Himmie Butler shows up while the Heat will definitely come out with FORCE and be attacking the glass after losing that battle by more than 20 Wednesday (33 to 58).
But I’ve ridden this Nuggets wagon all year and my gut says they head home up 3-1 with the potential to close out in Ball Arena and hoist Larry O’B for the first time in franchise history.
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