Free NBA Pick: Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Odds
Looking for Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Nuggets taking on the Heat on Wednesday, June 7th, 2023 at the Kaseya Center. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Nuggets Heat matchup.
2023 NBA Handicapping – Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
(1-1) Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat (1-1)
Date: Wednesday, June 7th
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
Moneyline NBA Odds: Nuggets -136 | Heat +116 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Nuggets -2
Today’s NBA Betting Total: 214.5
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The NBA Finals moves to South Beach with the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat knotted at a game a piece. Miami leveled the series by handing the Nuggets their first home loss of the postseason via a 111-108 comeback victory in Game 2.
ATS
At this time, the Nuggets are 54-44-1 overall against the spread this season. Also, they are 23-25 ATS as the away team. Additionally, the Heat are 45-56-3 against the spread this season. Also, they are 21-28-2 ATS as the home team.
Season Series
Denver swept the two games this season although both came down to the wire with the Nuggets winning 124-119 on December 30th and 112-108 on February 13th.
This is the first postseason meeting between the clubs and is also the Nuggets’ first trip to the big show in franchise history. Miami has two wins versus the Nuggets in their last 12 meetings and the win in Denver Sunday was their first since the Orlando bubble (August 2020).
Denver Nuggets
Through two games the Nuggets have yet to string together an effort similar to how they’ve played leading up to the finals. Perhaps part of that stems from the nine-day layoff, underestimating the Heat, or possibly because this is the toughest club they’ve faced in the playoffs.
Regardless of the reason, head coach, Michael Malone didn’t hold back in his post-game presser citing a lack of effort. In truth, the effort was there for most of the lineup that played although Michael Porter Jr. was frequently lost defensively.
Malone’s comments about pouting over missed shots seemed pointed directly at MPJ especially given how often it was his man that was left wide open.
Much of the situation can be remedied via better communication and I suspect if Porter doesn’t make the proper adjustments (read: dial in defensively) Malone will pull him in favor of Bruce Brown’s defense.
Stats
On the positive side, Denver possesses one of the two best offenses in the league highlighted by scoring 115.8 points per game ranking 12th. Denver is shooting the best field goal percentage of 50.4% as well as the fourth-best perimeter efficiency of 37.9%.
Denver allows opponents to score 112.5 points per game which ranks eighth while limiting foes to 47.8% from the field and 34.4% from deep ranking 20th and third respectively.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Collin Gillespie PG (OUT—leg fracture)
Miami Heat
Erik Spoelstra made the first big series adjustments which included starting Kevin Love instead of Caleb Martin to add size to the Heat’s starting unit. That allowed Bam Adebayo to play more of a defensive rover and Jimmy Butler to focus on Jamal Murray.
As expected the Heat also shot much better, particularly from the perimeter. Emphasis has been placed on how Spoelstra’s game plan was to force Nikola Jokic into a shooter but as he stated it’s not that simple.
Keep an eye out for Michael Malone to be on the refs in Game 3 because Bam Adebayo got away with staying in the key well beyond the allowable three seconds and it’s doubtful the Nuggets coach lets that slide two games in a row.
The other big change could find Tyler Herro returning to the court, however, that isn’t a straightforward benefit as the Heat are in a rhythm, and for as much as Herro can add offensively he’s equally a negative defensively.
Stats
Offensively, the Heat scores 109.5 points per game ranking 30th while shooting 46% from the field and 34.4% from the perimeter ranking 26th and 27th respectively.
Defensively, the Heat allows opponents to score 109.8 points per game ranking second overall. Miami opponents shoot 48.2% from the field and 36.7% from the perimeter with both efficiency categories ranking 22nd.
Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Tyler Herro SG (questionable— fingers/hand)
- Victor Oladipo SG (OUT— knee)
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Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, the Nuggets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- Also, the Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami.
- By comparison, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
- In conclusion, the Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at home.
Free Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Prediction:
Between Malone calling out his team and the starters exiting without speaking to the media, it’s not a stretch to imagine the players recognize they got embarrassed at home and are facing formidable competition.
Back home Miami will continue to rely on hot shooting and stellar defense while Denver will be the team making adjustments. Defensive effort (communication) is a given but several other tweaks can be expected such as addressing Miami’s zone defense.
Malone showed 17 different clips that addressed either strategy, scheme, or effort miscues in Game 2. Watch for Denver to push the pace, sets that have Murray off the ball more along with increased player/ball movement to aid Jokic’s playmaking options.
The Heat are 6-2 at home with both losses coming in the last two games while the Nuggets are 4-3 on the road but haven’t lost since May 7th in Phoenix.
Miami has trailed only once in the playoffs and that was after Game 1 in Denver, they answered the call in Game 2 and now Denver will try to avoid ever trailing in a series by taking this first match at Kaseya Center.
I vacillated on this game but ultimately landed on the Nuggets covering. Denver has four cumulative playoff losses with two in Phoenix that required 86 and 72 cumulative points from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
After the three prior losses, Murray averaged 27.3 points, shooting 50% from deep while Jokic averaged 36.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 11.6 assists (2-1).
Specifically, Game 4 in Phoenix when Jokic scored 53 points has a similar feel to Game 2 on Sunday. What followed was consecutive decisive two-way victories via balanced scoring and dialed-in defense plus Porters’ minutes were vastly cut with Bruce Brown getting more run.
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