Free NBA Pick: Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Odds
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2022 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Western Conference Finals
(0-0) Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors (0-0)
Date: Friday, May 20th
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
NBA Moneyline Odds: Mavericks +222 | Warriors -238 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Warriors -6.5
NBA Betting Total: 214
Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tips off on Friday, May 20th, featuring the fourth seed Dallas Mavericks versus the third seed Golden State Warriors. The Warriors took the opening match of the series, winning 112-87.
The Mavericks won the 2021-22 season series 3-1 and hold the all-time advantage having won 89 times of the club’s 169 regular-season meetings. This is the second time the clubs are playing in the postseason with Golden State winning 4-2 in the first round of 2007.
Dallas Mavericks
After demolishing the Suns in Game 7 it’s not that surprising the Mavericks weren’t as effective against the Warriors. Both teams they faced prior (Jazz/Suns) tend to run a more typical offense.
Utah and Phoenix capitalize more on pick and roll offense whereas the Warriors rely more on pace, ball movement, and more than any other team player movement.
Their offense can take a game or two to adjust to handling so look for Jason Kidd to insert some defensive tweaks for Game 2.
Similar to how the Dubs elected to use single coverage versus the opponent superstar they followed suit with Luka Doncic. He still led his team but Andrew Wiggins was reasonably successful at limiting him and also attacked him on the defensive end.
Doncic finished with 20 points on 6 of 18 from the field, seven rebounds, four assists, a steal, and seven turnovers.
The trio of Jalen Brunson (14), Reggie Bullock (12), and reserve Spencer Dinwiddie (17) were the other double-digit contributors.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) remains out with no definitive return date.
Golden State Warriors
Experience is a huge advantage for the Warriors and Game 1 offered glimpses of the team that won three championships in five years. Sure the roster has shifted dramatically but the core and the coach remain the same.
More importantly, the offense that fans are accustomed to was on full display in the opener. This iteration of the Warriors doesn’t boast Kevin Durant rather the personnel more closely resembles the first title team from 2014-15.
That squad had Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Shaun Livingston adding depth while this squad has Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, and role players or specialists like Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton.
All five starters and two reserves registered double-figure scores with Stephen Curry leading the way with a double-double (21 points, 12 rebounds) but Wiggins and Porter were keys to the Game 1 victory.
Wiggins registered 19 points, five rebounds, three assists, a steal, and a block while Porter offered 10 points, six rebounds, an assist, and a steal and were the main defenders locked on Doncic.
Andre Iguodala (neck) and Gary Payton II (elbow) are out for Friday. James Wiseman (knee) is out for the season.
NBA Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
- Golden State is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State’s last 6 games.
- Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Free Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Prediction:
Although the Warriors’ offense got all the shine for the Game 1 victory, the bigger impact came on the defensive end of the court. Mavs coach Jason Kidd pointed to a ton of wide-open looks Dallas should make moving forward but there is another reason for the low efficiency.
Golden State constantly pushes pace and because any of the players on the court could make the pass that leads to the bucket or could be the recipient who takes the shot it means no one can rest on defense.
That wasn’t the case for Dallas in the prior two series so if you noticed players grabbing their shorts or bent over breathing deeply it’s because facing the Warriors requires greater endurance, especially for a team who prefers to play at a slow pace.
Additionally, the Warriors possess several quality defenders and a deep bench Steve Kerr can utilize to add intensity.
Of the nine Mavericks who’ve logged more than 100 minutes this postseason, five are shooting above 38 percent from the perimeter, and Doncic (34.3%) isn’t in that group.
Game one that quintet shot 7 of 28 or 25 percent with only Dinwiddie (42%) shooting over 33 percent and as a team shot 22.9 percent.
The Warriors continued their dominance of the glass (51-35) and scoring in the paint (44-32) plus the fast break (18-7). Turnovers remained an issue (15) but they kept the points scored off them to 18 which was just three more than they scored on Mavs miscues.
One way Dallas will get an immediate improvement is if they can keep above-average defender and 3-point sniper Maxi Kleber (47.6%) on the floor as he struggled with early foul trouble in Game 1.
Still, it will likely take more than one game for the Mavericks to adjust to the pace, and while I’m still bullish on the Dubs taking Game 2 look for a more competitive match and for Dallas to up the physicality.
4* Free NBA Betting Pick: Mavericks +6
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