Free NBA Pick: Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Odds
Looking for Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Mavericks taking on the Warriors on Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 at the Chase Center. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Mavericks Warriors matchup.
2022 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Western Conference Finals
(0-0) Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors (0-0)
Date: Wednesday, May 18th
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
NBA Moneyline Odds: Mavericks +194 | Warriors -200 (Bet Now!)
NBA Betting Odds: Warriors -5
NBA Betting Total: 214.5
The Western Conference Finals tips off on Wednesday, May 18th featuring the fourth seed Dallas Mavericks versus the third seed Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors took care of the Denver Nuggets in a gentleman’s sweep then beat the Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 in the semi-finals. The Mavericks defeated the Utah Jazz 4-2 in round one and won their semi-finals versus the top-ranked Phoenix Suns via an absolute blowout in Game 7 on the road.
Golden State will host Game 1 Wednesday (today), Game 2, Friday, May 20th, *Game 5, Thursday, May 26th, and *Game 7, Monday, May 30th while Dallas will host Game 3, Sunday, May 22nd, Game 4, Tuesday, May 24th, and *Game 6, Saturday, May 28th (*if necessary).
The Mavericks won the 2021-22 season series 3-1 with victories on January 5th (99-82), February 27th (107-101), and March 3rd (122-113) while Golden State won the January 25th match (130-92).
While Stephen Curry played in all four matches Klay Thompson missed two meetings and Draymond Green only played in the first meeting.
Luka Doncic participated in all four meetings while the revamped version of the Mavericks post-trade with Spencer Dinwiddie played in two of the four matches.
The Mavericks hold the all-time advantage having won 89 times of the club’s 169 regular-season meetings. This is the second time the clubs are playing in the postseason with Golden State winning 4-2 in the first round of 2007.
The Game 7 annihilation of the Suns began with Luka Doncic coming out and scoring or assisting on 13 of the Mavericks’ first 15 points (the other two came at the line) to give Dallas a 15-5 lead. In truth the game was already over at that point.
Doncic finished with a double-double of 35 points and 10 rebounds plus four assists, and two steals in just 30 minutes. Luka scored 27 points in the first half which matched the total points accumulated by the Suns.
Spencer Dinwiddie scored 30 points in a reserve role having his best game of the series. Jalen Brunson continued his ascent as the secondary Mavericks scorer offering 24 points plus six rebounds, two assists, and a steal.
All 14 players who logged minutes for the Mavs finished with a positive on-court plus/minus. Dallas won via a 33-point deficit but notably, the Suns scored 11 points in the final 1:57 of garbage time so the beat down was worse than the final box score.
The key to the Mavericks advancing to the Conference Finals occurred after they fell behind 2-0 to the Suns spurring Jason Kidd to adapt by more balanced scoring, targeting Chris Paul on defense, and double-teaming Devin Booker.
While Kidd can look to attack (Poole) the Warriors have better overall defenders and more importantly, they can’t just shut down Steph and expect the same results they had versus Phoenix because there are at least four Warriors who can get hot and score 30 plus.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) remains out with no definitive return date.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors appeared in five Conference Finals between 2015 and 2019 and were unbeaten in them all. With Steve Kerr back from protocols he and five Warriors were present on all those teams –Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Kevon Looney.
The Warriors struggled later in the series versus the Grizzlies almost taking the Grizzlies for granted once Ja Morant was sidelined by injury. They upped the ante in Game 6 playing much more like their identity to capture the easy victory.
In both prior series, the Dubs faced a superstar (Nikola Jokic/Morant) but instead of double-teaming them Steve Kerr elected individual defensive coverage for the most part and are likely to take the same approach versus Doncic with emphasis on stopping everyone else.
Golden State finished the last series missing some core contributors but get a boost with Otto Porter Jr. likely available for Game 1 and Andre Iguodala should be back for Game 2 after missing the entirety of the Grizzlies series.
Porter (foot) is probable, Iguodala (neck) and Gary Payton II (elbow) are out for Wednesday. James Wiseman (knee) is out for the season.
NBA Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Golden State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State’s last 12 games.
- Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
- Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Free Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Prediction:
The Mavericks want to play at a snail’s pace and implement the majority of the offense through Doncic while the Warriors want to get out in transition on fast breaks to score. Only one team can win that race.
Both clubs have turned to small-ball lineups to get their best production but the Warriors have much more experience with small ball and unlike the Suns or Jazz they have the weapons to make the Mavericks pay.
Turnovers were a big issue for the Warriors versus the Grizzlies averaging 18.1 miscues per game which Memphis converted to 20.3 points. They need to clean that up versus the Mavs who unlike the Grizzlies will be more likely to pull up for transition 3-pointers on those turnovers.
Key categories to keep an eye on are scoring in the paint where the Dubs average 10.4 more points per game as well as rebounding where Golden State grabs 6.9 more boards per game and 3.1 extra offensive boards.
Both teams are partial to getting up shots from the perimeter. Dallas ranks first for attempts (40.3) and 3-pointers made (15.5) while the Warriors rank third for attempts (37.9) and second for makes (14.3).
Defensively the Mavericks have the better perimeter defense by 2.4 percent, however, they also faced 7.7 fewer attempts per game.
Dallas won two of three on the road versus the Jazz and got just a single road victory versus Phoenix (albeit the most important game to win) whereas the Dubs are unbeaten at Chase in the postseason.
Although Luka looks unstoppable I’m not convinced his teammates can offer enough additional production to stop the offensive weapons of the Dubs – – especially on the road.
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