Free MLB Pick: Marlins vs. Mets Odds
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2022 MLB Handicapping
(40-42) Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (52-32)
Date: Saturday, July 9th
Time: 4:10 PM ET
Venue: Citi Field, Queens NY
Projected Pitchers: Braxton Garrett vs. Carlos Carrasco
MLB Moneyline Odds: Marlins +144 | Mets -175
MLB run line Betting Odds: Marlins +1.5 (-140) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: 8
It’s been a tale of two nights so far in the Miami Marlins at New York Mets weekend series. The Mets dominated 10-0 on Thursday behind a gem from Trevor Williams, but Miami returned the favor 5-2 on Friday to even the series.
The Mets lost as -162 favorites in the second game of the series, but even so that priced has jumped up for Saturday afternoon’s tilt. Can Miami (+144) provide another profitable day for bettors?
Miami Marlins
The Marlins managed just 2 hits on Thursday night and were held to two runs or less for the third straight game in the 10-0 shellacking. The offense did turn around a bit on Friday though, collecting 10 hits in the 5-2 win.
Garrett Cooper had the big night in Friday’s win, belting out a 2-run HR in the 8th to give Miami a 4-2 lead. The Marlins would add an insurance run in the 9th and Tanner Scott closed the door for the save.
Now the Marlins will try to make it two in a row and get back on track on the heels of a recent 5-game win streak. Miguel Rojas has been playing well with a .435 OBP over the past week, picking up the pace as Jazz Chisholm, Jr. and Jorge Soler have both yet to play in July due to back injuries.
Pablo Lopez gave up just 1 ER over 5.0 IP in game two, a performance that Braxton Garrett (1-3, 4.25 ERA) would like to repeat as Saturday’s starter. The left-hander has allowed an ER or less in 3 of his 6 starts this year.
New York Mets
The Mets had 12 hits on Thursday including 3 from Starling Marte and J.D. Davis as well as HRs from Davis and James McCann. New York cooled down in Friday’s loss though with just 5 hits, although Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor did go yard.
The Mets would like to get back to Thursday’s performance at the plate, and hope that Marte and Davis can both stay hot as they are each hitting above .400 over the past week. Nimmo also has 3 HRs in the last 5 games.
Carlos Carrasco (9-4, 4.64 ERA) has picked up the loss in three of his last five starts. The right-hander allowed just 1 ER over 5.2 IP in his last start, but had given up 19 ER in his previous four outings. We will see if he is back or not.
MLB Baseball Betting Trends:
- Marlins are 6-1 last 7 vs NL East
- Marlins are 6-1 last 7 road games
- Marlins are 7-2 last 9 overall
- Mets are 4-1 last 5 overall
- Mets are 27-10 last 37 head to head at Citi Field
- Mets are 7-3 last 10 head to head overall
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets MLB Prediction:
The Marlins picked up a nice win on Friday night and seem to have the much better value in this spot. Garrett has dominated in half of his six starts this season, and Carrasco has struggled despite a good outing in his last trip to the mound.
Garrett hasn’t been as good in the other half of his starts though, while Davis and Marte are red hot for the Mets. Throw in another rough Carrasco outing and the true value seems to be on the ‘over’ here.
4* Free MLB Betting Pick: Over 8 (-120)
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