Free MLB Pick: Astros vs Rays ALDS Odds
Looking for Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Astros taking on the Rays in Game 4 of the American League Division Series on Tuesday October 8, 2019 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Astros Rays free pick.
2019 ALDS Game 4
(2-1) Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays (1-2)
Date: Tuesday October 8, 2019
Time: 4:15 PM ET
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL.
Projected Pitchers: Verlander (HOU), Castillo (TBR)
MLB Moneyline Odds: Astros -250 | Rays +210
MLB RunLine Betting Odds: Astros -160 | Rays +140
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: 7.5
Click here to view… MLB Stats & Expert MLB Betting Insight for this game!
Houston scored first in Game 3 but Tampa Bay got the next eight in an eventual 10–3 at Tropicana Field to force a Game 4.
Kevin Kiermaier hit a mammoth three-run home run off of Zack Greinke in the second to put Tampa Bay on the board and give it a two-run lead after Jose Altuve went deep in the first.
Tampa scored another run in the third and four more times in the fourth to put the game out of reach for Houston. Wade Miley threw two-and-two-thirds in relief for Houston.
That made it clear that AJ Hinch was planning to send Justin Verlander back to the mound in Game 4 on just three days of rest.
I can’t get career split data on Verlander when he’s pitched on just three days of rest but I looked through his postseason game log and I found just two instances when he’s done it.
The first was in the 2011 ALDS when Jimmy Leyland sent him out there against the Yankees on just two days. He threw eight innings of four-run ball and got the win.
Most recently, the started a Game 4 at Fenway Park in 2017 on three days. He got two outs in the third and gave up just one run on a solo homer and the Astros won. He did walk two without a strikeout, however.
So as good of an idea as we all may think this to be, Verlander doesn’t have a long track record of making such a decision pay off.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays aren’t going to go back to Tyler Glasnow, who is their young arm of the future and just back from a long DL stint. He isn’t expected to pitch in this game; nor is Blake Snell or, obviously, Charlie Morton, who went five great innings to win Game 3.
Kevin Cash will start with the opener, Diego Castillo. Castillo has had an up and down year but he’s the guy out in the ‘pen who won Cash’s favor down the stretch. After him, Tampa is staying mum.
Tampa finished with Chaz Roe, Brendan McKay, Oliver Drake, and Colin Poche in Game 3. Drake went two innings so he’ll be low on the list of available arms for tonight but everybody else should be available.
I would imagine Cash’s big board has Yarbrough, Anderson, and Pagan at the top. From Castillo, he’ll probably give the ball to Yarbrough, who went 11–6 in the regular season and set the Astros down 1-2-3 in his Game 2 relief appearance.
But even if Castillo can go two, which is hopeful, and Yarbs can go three, which is also hopeful, Anderson and Pagan will, at best, combine to go another three. Someone else will still have to throw an inning.
Poche will probably get at least a left-hander or two. Then where does Cash go? He surely wants to save Glasnow for a potential Game 5 start but I’m thinking he’ll go to him late if it’s close and he’s out of better options.
MLB Baseball Betting Trends:
- Under is 12-1-3 in HOU last 16 on astroturf.
- HOU are 8-1 in their last 9 road games.
- Under is 9-3-1 in HOU last 13 road games.
- Under is 10-1 in TB last 11 playoff home games.
- TB are 16-5 in their last 21 games on astroturf.
- TB are 21-7 in their last 28 home games.
Free Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Prediction: play the over.
I like Houston to win this game but not at that price.
In fact, I like the Astros not so much because of Verlander but because I’m skeptical that Tampa Bay’s bullpen is going to get this job done.
I’d like to be able to root for it because this is a heck of a job it has in front of it but I’m going to go ahead and tab the over.
4* Free 2019 ALDS Betting Pick: Over 7.5
MLB Free Score Prediction: Houston 7 – Tampa Bay 4
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